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RB Nyheim Hines, CLE (1 Viewer)

The Dude said:
only if you had foolish expectations.   Half ppr and I was hoping 8 to 10 and should get it.  He’s a flex.
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I thought his floor tonight would be 10. Hope he catches a few more to get there. I thought they'd design some passes for him but they haven't. 

 
shadyridr said:
I thought his floor tonight would be 10. Hope he catches a few more to get there. I thought they'd design some passes for him but they haven't. 
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He was lined up out wide in single coverage the play before the TD.  Thought that might be the money shot...but alas, no.

 
I'm no coach but there's just no shot I run Hines 15 times a game. That'd be like running White 15 times a game. You should only do it if you don't have another option.

 
I thought Wilkins looked better between the tackles tonight.  I have no idea if Hines as primary back is the plan here.

 
BigAl21 said:
I see a solid floor in PPR formats with 20 points in the realm of possibilities... Even without a touchdown. I am considering him over White tonight, who is averaging 19.5 in PPR.
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16 points, not too far off. Tripped up by the ankles on that last series or he scoots in for a TD.

 
steelwind said:
I thought Wilkins looked better between the tackles tonight.  I have no idea if Hines as primary back is the plan here.
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Wilkins has looked like junk all year - but tonight he got on a hot streak.  What that means going forward?  No Idea.

 
steelwind said:
I thought Wilkins looked better between the tackles tonight.  I have no idea if Hines as primary back is the plan here.
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Honestly, if he could ever stay on the field, I think Marlon Mack would be the starter. Its probably a cluster going forward, and Turbin could be more involved as he shakes the rust off.

 
Picked him up this week.  First time watching him...Obviously much further along in the passing game.  With Luck on pace for 23,461 pass attempts this year, he’ll have a deceptively high floor.

But Marlon Mack likely will get his chance.

 
I have a feeling this won't be a popular opinion in this thread, LOL, but I can't see Hines ever being a long-term feature back. Not nearly physical enough.

That said, Hines has talent & is a very good pass-catcher. He's got much higher value in PPR, but his ceiling is somewhat limited.

I don't believe the Colts view Hines as a feature back, either. Not every RB is drafted as a feature back prospect. He may or may not be forced into a starter's role, but that's not his strength. Hines' ideal role is as a 3rd down/specialty/package back, IMO.

 
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Nyheim Hines rushed 15 times for 45 yards in the Colts' Week 5 loss to the Patriots, adding seven receptions for 45 additional yards.

The 15 carries were a new season high by 10, though as you can see, Hines struggled to do anything with them. Jordan Wilkins was more involved in the second half but marred his night with a soft giveaway. Things change fast in a backfield this injured and ineffective, but Hines figures to remain the only Indy runner with any fantasy appeal for Week 6 against the Jets.

Oct 5 - 12:23 AM
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He is getting a lot of volume and doing very little with it.  He has shown he has good hands, but hasn't shown anything after the catch.  It will be interesting to see if he continues to get so much volume once Mack returns, since Mack has shown big play ability.  

 
As an owner, I'd gladly take fewer overall touches if the carries he did get weren't so heavy on going up the middle. Just not where his skill set should be focused.

The Pats were giving him a lot of attention coming out of the backfield, and he still managed 7 catches which is a good sign.

 
For everyone talking about how the Colts should not run him up the middle, that is where a player like Hines has an opportunity to break a long run. He is not the kind of guy who is going to run around the edge and make defenders miss. He has great speed, but it is straight line speed. Running him up the middle creates an opportunity for him to hit a hole just right, break into the second level, and burn. All of his long runs at NC State were exactly these kinds of plays.

 
People can complain but for one week starting him over Collins and I am happy with the result.  He’s not a weekly starter but will produce in spots.

 
I’m willing to give Hines a pass.  That was his first start as the main back.  If this usage continues and he develops then we have something here.  Opportunity meets talent.

 
Football Jones said:
I have a feeling this won't be a popular opinion in this thread, LOL, but I can't see Hines ever being a long-term feature back. Not nearly physical enough.

That said, Hines has talent & is a very good pass-catcher. He's got much higher value in PPR, but his ceiling is somewhat limited.

I don't believe the Colts view Hines as a feature back, either. Not every RB is drafted as a feature back prospect. He may or may not be forced into a starter's role, but that's not his strength. Hines' ideal role is as a 3rd down/specialty/package back, IMO.
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Seems pretty obvious. Could still be poor man Cohen. Good in ppr leagues.

 
Started him and cant complain about his ppr total. Too bad he and 3 others merely tied the output of the opposing team's Ebron. :o

 
Nyheim Hines wants to reach 1,000 total yards in 2019.

Last year, Hines managed to gain 739 total yards despite averaging 3.7 yards on his 85 rookie carries. With Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins primarily handling rushing duties, most of his Hines work will continue to be as a receiver. However, the Colts have added Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell to the passing offense, so Hines may find it difficult to reach the 63 receptions he had last year.

SOURCE: 1070 The Fan

Jun 6, 2019, 7:19 PM ET
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Frank Reich said the addition of rookie slot WR Parris Campbell would "probably affect" Nyheim Hines.

Reich believes this is a good thing for Hines, but it likely means fewer targets for Hines. The Colts have made it clear that Marlon Mack will remain their "main guy" with Hines filling in as a third-down back. If the roster stays as is, Hines will find it difficult to match last year's 63 receptions, and he'll find extremely hard to reach his goal of 1,000 total yards. Reich said the offensive game plan will alter week-to-week depending on the opposing defense.

SOURCE: 1070 The Fan

Jun 11, 2019, 9:21 PM ET
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From 2000 through 2017 only 10 RBs recorded at least 55 receptions as rookies (Barkley and Hines did in 2018)

In their second season those 10 RBs averaged 250.1 fantasy points. 

Hines could be a very good buy

 
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Dr. Dan said:
From 2000 through 2017 only 10 RBs recorded at least 55 receptions as rookies (Barkley and Hines did in 2018)

In their second season those 10 RBs averaged 250.1 fantasy points. 

Hines could be a very good buy
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Here they are, along with first and second season touches:

  1. Barkley (91) - 352, N/A
  2. Bush (88) - 243, 230
  3. Kamara (81) - 201, 275
  4. McCaffrey (80) - 197, 326
  5. Forte (63) - 379, 315
  6. Hines (63) - 148, N/A
  7. Duke Johnson (61) - 165, 126
  8. Tomlinson (59) - 398, 451
  9. Best (58) - 229, 111
  10. Bernard (56) - 226, 211
The 8 RBs in this list who played second seasons to date averaged 255 touches in those second seasons. It seems exceedingly unlikely that Hines will get anywhere close to that. More importantly, that group's second season success is skewed by Tomlinson, McCaffrey, Forte, and Kamara. Hines is not at all similar to any of those players.

Finally, an arbitrary cutoff at 55 receptions seems like cherry picking. Make it 45, and it adds these players:

  1. Cohen (53)
  2. Kareem Hunt (53)
  3. Trent Richardson (51)
  4. Slaton (50)
  5. Helu (49)
  6. Doug Martin (49)
  7. Domanick Williams (47)
  8. MJD (46)
  9. Leveon Bell (45)
  10. Javorius Allen (45)
That list isn't quite as impressive as the first.

Bottom line, I don't think this data tells us anything about Hines' prospects.

 
Dr. Dan said:
From 2000 through 2017 only 10 RBs recorded at least 55 receptions as rookies (Barkley and Hines did in 2018)

In their second season those 10 RBs averaged 250.1 fantasy points. 

Hines could be a very good buy
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It's not like Hines was getting the ball on merit though. The Colts forced the ball to him, and he was terribly inefficient with his touches.

 
cloppbeast said:
It's not like Hines was getting the ball on merit though. The Colts forced the ball to him, and he was terribly inefficient with his touches.
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I'm thinking more PPR. 

Tarik Cohen had very similar stats in 2017 and built off of that for 2018. I think Hines could improve his rushing efficiency as well as getting more involved in the passing game. There is a major trend toward rbbc with a fast satellite receiving back. And these guys are finishing high in fantasy ppr leagues (white, drake, Cohen, lindsay). I'm starting to wonder if too many people are over looking Hines as a decent buy low. Lo gravity may not be there but if you can get rb2/3 production from him for a low 2nd or early 3rd for 2-3 seasons why wouldnt you?

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Here they are, along with first and second season touches:

  1. Barkley (91) - 352, N/A
  2. Bush (88) - 243, 230
  3. Kamara (81) - 201, 275
  4. McCaffrey (80) - 197, 326
  5. Forte (63) - 379, 315
  6. Hines (63) - 148, N/A
  7. Duke Johnson (61) - 165, 126
  8. Tomlinson (59) - 398, 451
  9. Best (58) - 229, 111
  10. Bernard (56) - 226, 211
The 8 RBs in this list who played second seasons to date averaged 255 touches in those second seasons. It seems exceedingly unlikely that Hines will get anywhere close to that. More importantly, that group's second season success is skewed by Tomlinson, McCaffrey, Forte, and Kamara. Hines is not at all similar to any of those players.

Finally, an arbitrary cutoff at 55 receptions seems like cherry picking. Make it 45, and it adds these players:

  1. Cohen (53)
  2. Kareem Hunt (53)
  3. Trent Richardson (51)
  4. Slaton (50)
  5. Helu (49)
  6. Doug Martin (49)
  7. Domanick Williams (47)
  8. MJD (46)
  9. Leveon Bell (45)
  10. Javorius Allen (45)
That list isn't quite as impressive as the first.

Bottom line, I don't think this data tells us anything about Hines' prospects.
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I'd agree, I wouldn't predict 250 fantasy points from Hines based on the data, especially knowing the players on the list. 

I think it's interesting that his 2018 mirrored Cohen's 2017, but no one seems to think Hines can have a 2019 similar to Cohen's 2018. 

Hines finished the season as a RB3. I think theres a very good possibility that he averages 1.5-2 more fp/g which would put him at rb21-18, respectively, at last years numbers. 

I think his floor is a higher end rb3, but his value is as if that's his ceiling.

I appreciate this talk, as his owner put him on the block and I'm intrigued since I think it would only cost my low 2nd. Hard to pass up a RB3 with RB2 upside at that cost

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I'd agree, I wouldn't predict 250 fantasy points from Hines based on the data, especially knowing the players on the list. 

I think it's interesting that his 2018 mirrored Cohen's 2017, but no one seems to think Hines can have a 2019 similar to Cohen's 2018. 

Hines finished the season as a RB3. I think theres a very good possibility that he averages 1.5-2 more fp/g which would put him at rb21-18, respectively, at last years numbers. 

I think his floor is a higher end rb3, but his value is as if that's his ceiling.

I appreciate this talk, as his owner put him on the block and I'm intrigued since I think it would only cost my low 2nd. Hard to pass up a RB3 with RB2 upside at that cost
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He was RB40 in ppg in my PPR dynasty league. Furthermore, you are ignoring the fact that Mack missed 4 games last season, and those games represented a disproportionate amount of Hines' usage:

  • 4 games without Mack: 29 rushing attempts and 28 receptions = 14.25 touches per game
  • 14 games with Mack: 59 rushing attempts and 35 receptions = 6.7 touches per game
And Hines had just 3 touches in the 2 postseason games.

How can anyone look at those facts and feel optimistic about an increased role for Hines in 2019?

 
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A few telling stats from last year...

4 games without Mack - 29 rushes/28 catches

12 games with Mack - 56 rushes / 35 catches

That's a huge dropoff in catches, from 7 to under 3 per game, when receiving is his bread and butter.  To compare his possible 2019 to Cohen's 2018 season is misleading, because Cohen got his stats with Jordan Howard playing.    

 
Dr. Dan said:
I'm thinking more PPR. 

Tarik Cohen had very similar stats in 2017 and built off of that for 2018. I think Hines could improve his rushing efficiency as well as getting more involved in the passing game. There is a major trend toward rbbc with a fast satellite receiving back. And these guys are finishing high in fantasy ppr leagues (white, drake, Cohen, lindsay). I'm starting to wonder if too many people are over looking Hines as a decent buy low. Lo gravity may not be there but if you can get rb2/3 production from him for a low 2nd or early 3rd for 2-3 seasons why wouldnt you?
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I only watched Hines a bit but he looked really pedestrian. I just didn’t see it. And looking at the stats his ypc and ypr were both bad. I suppose White isn’t special either so it’s possible but I think he needs to improve a lot or he’ll go down.

 
BobbyLayne said:
If Mack misses any time he doesn’t really have upside, Wilkins will take over the running in role.
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This I disagree with, because a Mack/Wilkins/Hines backfield vs a Wilkins/Hines/insert player here backfield is totally different, as evidenced by Hines' stats from last year.

 
Just Win Baby said:
He was RB40 in ppg in my PPR dynasty league. Furthermore, you are ignoring the fact that Mack missed 4 games last season, and those games represented a disproportionate amount of Hines' usage:

  • 4 games without Mack: 29 rushing attempts and 28 receptions = 14.25 touches per game
  • 14 games with Mack: 59 rushing attempts and 35 receptions = 6.7 touches per game
And Hines had just 3 touches in the 2 postseason games.

How can anyone look at those facts and feel optimistic about an increased role for Hines in 2019?
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I was referring to total points. not ppg. ppg may be a better representation. 

These are good points. Everyone is falling over themselves to get a peice of this offense and I think most people think that Campbell is going to take over Hines role, which is possible since indy didn't have speed at wr as they do this year so they used Hines there. I like this discussion a lot. I've read a lot of positive things to buy Hines low, and these are good points. I'm just not sure if hes a gadget player or a ppr machine, or something in between 

 
I would certainly take Hines over Wilkins in PPR, and even moreso if Mack went down.  The problem is, when all 3 are healthy, the chance for volume just isn't there.  He finished with the 8th most catches for a RB and RB28 overall in PPR, but he only finished as a RB1 once (with Mack out), and RB2 three times (once with Mack out).  He was a very consistent RB4, but that isn't what you want when he is in your starting lineup.  With Mack out those 4 games he finished RB1, RB2, RB3, and RB4.  I would surely take that.  Grab him as your RB4 or 5, and hope that Mack is out if you have to start him.  Nice upside if Mack goes down.  Of course we are talking PPR only.  

 
top returning redzone threat

Last season, Hines’ 74.0 grade in the red zone, according to Pro Football Focus, was the third-best mark among all NFL backs.

PFF’s Daniel Rymer wrote this about Hines’ running abilities within the 20-yard line:

“Last season, Hines averaged 2.18 yards after contact per attempt in the red zone, ranking 14th out of 66 running backs. The rookie also forced a missed tackle once every 0.18 red-zone attempts, tying for 16th at the position. His speed and toughness were a lethal combination in the red-zone last season, and the Colts could benefit by utilizing him more in 2019.”
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Interesting. I'm not saying he's destined for greatness, but, again, his value is so low and (at least in my leagues) everyone is holding their RBS close

 
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I have to admit @Dr. Dan and @Just Win Baby have me going back and forth as to whether I’d have interest in trying to get Hines in a league I could use some RB depth. I’m leaning towards “no” but maybe Dan will win me back over 😀

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I have to admit @Dr. Dan and @Just Win Baby have me going back and forth as to whether I’d have interest in trying to get Hines in a league I could use some RB depth. I’m leaning towards “no” but maybe Dan will win me back over 😀
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JWB almost had me leaning "no"

I'm not neccessary advocating for Hines to be a RB2. I think he has that upside, but I see him as an RB3 at RB4/5 value

63 receptions his rookie season, and coaches didnt even realize what they had. Now they've had an entire offseason to plan and hes had another offseason.

Hes a hard worker, which is what attracted me to Lindsay his rookie year; first one in last one out sort of guy.

From the most recent link above 

"He has worked as hard as anybody," Reich said. "I mean the guy works really, really hard. He does all the little things right. He’s very dependable. ... That’s just a credit to him."
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And that I think it's only a matter of time for Mack to get hurt. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
63 receptions his rookie season, and coaches didnt even realize what they had. Now they've had an entire offseason to plan and hes had another offseason.
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Justify the bolded and quantify what it actually means for fantasy prospects.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Justify the bolded and quantify what it actually means for fantasy prospects.
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sure

Simply put, Reich said Hines “exceeded expectations” in his rookie season.

“We knew we had a role in mind for Nyheim when we drafted him after looking at his college tape. Chris (Ballard) and his staff did a great job of really getting Nyheim in front of our eyes as well – just looking at him as an offensive staff and seeing what he could do for us. But he has greatly exceeded I think the role that we had envisioned,” Reich told reporters in January. “He’s just developed faster. I think we thought he could get where he is right now, but I think he’s just ahead of the process.”
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"He exceeded the role we had planned," to me, means we completely underestimated what we were getting. 

What this means for fantasy is that 63 receptions could be expanded upon now that they know what they have and what he can do. They had an entire offseason to create some plans for everything they saw him do in practice and games last season. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
sure

"He exceeded the role we had planned," to me, means we completely underestimated what we were getting. 

What this means for fantasy is that 63 receptions could be expanded upon now that they know what they have and what he can do. They had an entire offseason to create some plans for everything they saw him do in practice and games last season. 
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Coach speak 101. I will take the under on 63 receptions for Hines this season. 

 
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