new to auction but long time Draft Dominator and Football Guys user. Noticing that the stud RB's have VERY high auction values in the tool. Gurley is $78 in my league settings on a $200 budget. Is that normal that the high end guys will be valued so high? Am I to assume I'm getting a deal if Gurley were to go for $70? New to this and trying to figure out my strategy to accumulate profit.
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auction values and the Draft Dominator (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tsarc888
- Start date
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
It may be right based on your scoring rules and their projections for Gurley. If they have him scoring a lot more points than the next group of RBs then he's going to have a high price. Just because they say his value is that high doesn't mean that translates to your league though. It going to be hard for you since you don't have multiple years of draft info to go off of. I have been in the same league long enough to see the trends of how much players go for. I will make my player rankings then place a value next to them based on what past year's results were. It's pretty accurate for me.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I think one of the best things you can do if you're new to this is practice. Do some mock drafts on Yahoo and ESPN. The mock drafts are not always that accurate but gives you a good idea of how things will go. When I want a more accurate draft I will actually do a real league draft. These are more accurate because people take them more serious but few of the people actually manage the team throughout the year. I usually do about 3 of these and try to manage them all year but don't spend too much time on them.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I would expect the top 4-5 RBs to go for 35%-40% of your cap.
You'll love the auction, it'll be the most fun you have a draft this year, especially if you're having a live auction. Good luck!
You'll love the auction, it'll be the most fun you have a draft this year, especially if you're having a live auction. Good luck!
CalBear
Footballguy
The Draft Dominator makes a number of unwarranted assumptions in setting auction values, and you can't see what they are, and you can't change them. If you're wanting to know how the values are arrived at, you'll have to use a different tool.
matuski
Footballguy
Any predictive auction values you use, regardless of the source, are thrown out the window about 10 players in.
You will have to adjust almost immediately.
Your league might overpay for every stud. Or overpay one position not another. Or a few pay and half the league hordes $. Etc, etc, etc..
You will have to adjust almost immediately.
Your league might overpay for every stud. Or overpay one position not another. Or a few pay and half the league hordes $. Etc, etc, etc..
streamkeeper
Footballguy
Agreed. I am a long time DD user, but it just doesn't mock an auction draft as well as other tools.
CalBear
Footballguy
The goal of an auction draft tool is to estimate what players are worth (based on predicted production above some baseline), not to predict what players will go for.
matuski
Footballguy
Same exact thing.
If your league values players/positions/tiers differently or has different ideas of "worth"... you better be ready to adjust.
Otherwise you can start off laughing at everyone overpaying..... then suddenly realize you have no studs/rbs/wrs/etc because you wouldn't.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Value and cost are not the "same exact thing." If they were, the person who spent the most would win the league.
Value is what you are seeking in an auction: Greater overall production in your starting lineup per dollar spent. The purpose of an auction tool is to let you know when a player provides greater or lesser value, based on what your league mates are bidding on him at the moment.
Let's assume you had a tool which could predict cost with 100% accuracy for your league. It tells you that Gurley will go for $78. What do you do with that information? Should you bid $78 or not? Knowing the cost is useless in answering that question.
matuski
Footballguy
When you are stuck with a roster full of 3rd and 4th tier "value", because you thought the cost was too high for a stud to be value.
CalBear
Footballguy
The purpose of an auction tool isn't to tell you what to bid. It's to help you optimize your value. Yes, you may need to pay more than the nominal auction value in some circumstances, for example, if every player in a particular tier is being overpaid for. Two lower-tier players do not provide as much value as one higher-tier player, because value is measured by points in the starting lineup, not total points.
But if everyone is overpaying, your job is to overpay the least, and that's what a good auction tool will help you with.
Again, the information that a player is likely to cost a particular dollar amount is entirely useless in helping you decide whether you should pay that dollar amount.
Think about the FBG contest. It's like an auction where you already know what every player will cost. Which ones should you buy? The ones which maximize value. How do you maximize value? Predict the number of points each player will score in your starting lineup, and divide by the cost. That's what a useful auction value tool does.
matuski
Footballguy
You realize you are not disagreeing with me at all then (with the bolded), correct?
eta - the fbg contest is nothing like an auction. you don't get to know ahead of time what a player costs in an auction. thus the problem of sticking to values... you wont know the value of players versus their cost until AFTER the tier/position is gone.
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CalBear
Footballguy
I am disagreeing with the following statements:
The auction tool's values are still extremely useful in these situations. Critical, I would say. In fact, the entire reason to use an auction draft tool.
Let's say we're talking about RBs, and you want a stud RB, and you think there is a big drop-off after RB5. The auction tool values show the following:
- RB1: $78
- RB2: $75
- RB3: $72
- RB4: $70
- RB5: $68
- RB6: $58
- RB1: $90 (vs. $78)
- RB2: $85 (vs. $75)
- RB3: $83 (vs. $72)
- RB4: $75 (vs. $70)
- RB5: $74 (vs. $68)
- RB6: $63 (vs. $58)
Now, your tool should be readjusting the values of remaining players based on remaining dollars. Half of the league has overpaid for RBs, so has less money available for other positions, so WR1's value might have dropped from $60 to $58. But because you overpaid the least, you'll have a little more money than everyone else to bid on him. And maybe you still have to pay $60, but you still need to know his value-over-baseline relative to WR2, and to QB1 and the rest of the positions.
matuski
Footballguy
In your example, your values match up relatively well with your tool. This simply does not happen. Unless your whole league is using the same values.
You seem to be misunderstanding my position.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Well perhaps you could explain it, rather than making sweeping statements.
Obviously my example is fabricated; I'm using it to prove a point. Substitute in any numbers you prefer for the auction cost of RB1-6 to illustrate your point.
My position, which I think should be clear, is that a calculation of predicted starting-lineup points above baseline, relative to available league budget, which I'm referring to as "value", is an important factor in making decisions about auction bidding, and is the primary thing an auction tool should be providing. And furthermore, that predictions of what a player actually will go for at auction have relatively little decision-making value.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Since I'm in Iowa I can't do the money leagues hosted by websites. I have to do custom leagues run by other people.
dkp993
Footballguy
