Ordering The Chaos (1 Viewer)

I remember the phrase, back in the day, that derived from a concept that when a market was saturated with so much information, and everybody had that information, that the only thing left to gain by way of game theory/competitive advantage was if one party effectively "ordered the chaos" better than the other. Ruthlessly and with dynamism, it got rid of the old phrase "knowledge is power," and replaced it with, well, maybe, "synthesis is power." Anyway, it got me to thinking about some things with fantasy football, and I'll see if I can expound upon them. 

In other words, without giving you a wall of text, your league members, however committed they are, have only have to click on Yahoo and their extensive free (and good) recommendations or turn on the television to hear sneaky plays, smart starts, etc., for fantasy football. I guess my question is about tenfold: 

• What techniques do you use to order chaos -- in other words, is it Twitter, beat reporters, your own access to game tape and college film highlights with booming hip-hop, what?
  
• Do you do projections? Pretty cut and dry. Do you plug in lines like 6/100/1 like the websites (including this one)?
  
• Is it following the actual sport instead of hanging out a message board -- I kid -- for your info.?
  
• Is it finding consensus with other people?
  
• Is it the rapidity of your decisions? 
  

Really, @NYRAGEand @SaintsInDome2006brought this up to me, and everybody knows it -- it's not novel, but it's almost unspoken. It's almost as if we spend many, many hours here listening to each other, the podcasts, all the stuff, and in the end, it's like perfect competition in economics. Everyone good at this winds up with access to the same exact freaking information because of several things, and it creates a real luck factor with FF. Most people have figured this out, but here's my question, and it's huge: 

If one is so good -- and consistently good -- relative to others, how is one ordering this chaotic trickle of information? I know there are great FF players out there and I'm curious about their techniques, how they go about selecting players, everything. 

This might be a good thread for those who don't mind going public to do so. 

Personal note and aside: I'm just interested in the techniques and not looking to cash in on this stuff. I do this for fun, but lately, it seems, and over in the FFA it seems, people feel more of a grind to fantasy football than anything. It should be fun, IMO. But I'm still curious. 

-RA

We all hear a lot of the same information but I guess you have to that no about if you believe it or not. Somebody on TV says pick So-&-So off the waiver wire and gives a reason. There's times I look at the TV like hmm I'm not buying that reasoning. Your leaguemates might though. A gut feeling is what is different at times.

I guess that's a silly answer about how I use this information compared to others in my league.

Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

We all hear a lot of the same information but I guess you have to that no about if you believe it or not. Somebody on TV says pick So-&-So off the waiver wire and gives a reason. There's times I look at the TV like hmm I'm not buying that reasoning. Your leaguemates might though. A gut feeling is what is different at times.

I guess that's a silly answer about how I use this information compared to others in my league.

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That's not a silly answer. That's what I'm wondering. How do you, as a recipient of information, use it? I mean, I know the information can be inaccurate. I guess my question goes to the concept of knowledge being power balanced against the ordering chaos thing and I could have been clearer. 

• Do you think you have an informational advantage? 
  
• Do you go with your gut and feel and your own "scouting?"
  
• How do you make your judgments about which information to use or trust? 
  

It's sort of an all-emcompassing thread. I'm interested in how people make these decisions.  

Oh, and I know an obvious answer is to talk about the types of leagues -- developmental and dynasty leagues with drafts, especially -- but that just means the industry shifted to college football. Where would that end? Well, it would end with the greatest signature ever on this board, IT=INFO, but it wouldn't end with a casual Sunday money league. 

I'm interested in knowledge about professional football -- redraft, dynasty-lite, keeper. 

No college stuff. Most people don't do that, and I certainly don't. I'm too busy with baseball and hockey.  

Good thread Rockaction.

I honestly don't rank any players until a day or two before our draft in my primary league (26th year) and maybe the day before in the other leagues I've dappled in over the years. I do my rankings first by simply taking the finishing order (PPG) of the last half of the previous season, then go down the lists one by one and adjust on gut or what I've heard on each player. Then I'll look at ADP and "expert" lists to check for serious outliers.

I watch zero (0) NCAA football. Nothing, not even highlights (no interest). Rookies are completely unknown to me until preseason starts. I don't watch any preseason games either, but I do follow the chit-chat on who looks good, who's struggling, etc. On draft day guys like Ronald Jones, the Seattle RB, etc. appear to be practice squad fodder to me... other guys are drooling over these guys and act like they got the steal of the draft after "letting them slip" and finally pulling the trigger ahead of RBs that are actually starting in front of those guys. And I'm just pulling those names as they apply this year, but it happens every year. Half of the guys in my primary league are serious NCAA fans and it skews their outlook on these guys when they hit the NFL.

So I guess in this day and age of oversaturation, less information has worked better for me. Most of the real work occurs after the draft anyway, and I am not has inclined to wait on talent as other guys are. I rely much more heavily on the eyeball test than piles of meaningless statistics.

One more thing, I am also the league Commissioner... so I am almost forced to follow things very closely once the season starts. Maybe other guys aren't as motivated to stay on top of things, but I absorb a lot of info unintentionally I suppose.

I've begun to think, given the amount and availability of information these days, that it's important to focus on other aspects of FF which can strengthen your odds.  For years, I have bemoaned the fact that I KNOW which players are going to excel, but there's no way to acquire them.  While I typically end up doing well, there is another guy who wins frequently by leveraging friendships (and doing other shady things) to make advantageous deals.  So, info used to be the factor.  Now, I think it's a matter of expanding your game.

Thanks for the responses, guys, and thanks for thinking it is a worthy topic.  

Dizzy said:

So I guess in this day and age of oversaturation, less information has worked better for me.

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daveR said:

I've begun to think, given the amount and availability of information these days, that it's important to focus on other aspects of FF which can strengthen your odds.

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These are very similar sentiments. This is how I've survived the past six or seven years. It's finding guys that will break out from the smaller, non-pedigreed schools, though I watch zero CFB usually. I only tune in during the bowls.  

eta* And in re-reading daveR's comments, I think I can attest to this. But it's not collusion, it's like baseball GMs. You'll always find GMs working to do business with each other because they: 

• know they're not getting ripped off
  
• have a comfort level negotiating
  
• know that they've both benefitted in the previous deals, thus leading one (maybe fallaciously) to believe that benefits will accrue in this future deal
  

At this point I honestly feel like's it's a guessing game.  I go with the hunches I have but they aren't based on anything.  In fact they are probably based a little on bias and history which isn't a good mix.  But the league is so screwy nowadays it's almost impossible to predict.  

I will also add that after following these boards for a decade the boards get more ridiculous every year with the non-stop posts about this guys is going to be the next big thing and then 75 pages arguing about it.

killface said:

At this point I honestly feel like's it's a guessing game.   

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All it has ever been.

Not long ago you could gain an advantage of information through research, now my 10 year old has every data point fed to him by email/tweet.

matuski said:

All it has ever been.

Not long ago you could gain an advantage of information through research, now my 10 year old has every data point fed to him by email/tweet.

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Exactly.  Plus you can go to 10 different expert pages and half of them will say start this guy and the other half will say sit that same guy

killface said:

I will also add that after following these boards for a decade the boards get more ridiculous every year with the non-stop posts about this guys is going to be the next big thing and then 75 pages arguing about it.

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That's part of why I started the thread. To have a constructive way to rank order information, sources, etc. To use the techniques, methods, and information at our disposal because of massive computing and informational organizational power and use it constructively.  

matuski said:

now my 10 year old has every data point fed to him by email/tweet.

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That's why I started it.  

killface said:

Exactly.  Plus you can go to 10 different expert pages and half of them will say start this guy and the other half will say sit that same guy

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One of the most hilarious things to come out of a hobby based on crystal balls is the term "expert".

And to discuss this gathering of info. in broad terms so that it didn't become simply threads arguing about players. I hope this can be used for that.  

Good thread 

rockaction said:

And to discuss this gathering of info. in broad terms so that it didn't become simply threads arguing about players. I hope this can be used for that.  

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I get the discussion, and I imagine everyone has their routine.. but I assume it is generally the same for everyone:

1) Filter the information -  There is simply too much redundant stuff out there.  We all probably have a handful of sources we use, chosen either by simple habit or layout or for some reason we think a source's crystal ball is better than the next. 

2) Using our own crystal ball or hunch or "gut" - influenced by our filter - we choose a starting line up or waiver pick up.

matuski said:

I get the discussion, and I imagine everyone has their routine.. but I assume it is generally the same for everyone:

1) Filter the information -  There is simply too much redundant stuff out there.  We all probably have a handful of sources we use, chosen either by simple habit or layout or for some reason we think a source's crystal ball is better than the next. 

2) Using our own crystal ball or hunch or "gut" - influenced by our filter - we choose a starting line up or waiver pick up.

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Yeah, I get that -- totally -- but I wouldn't kill a free flow conversation before it gets started. People might have ways of doing things, like SameSongNDance did, that are not only procedural, but substantive. I do get what you're saying, but why not get differing points of view? It aggregates, this information about information, if that's not too meta. 

I try to look are several factors. As you mentioned - the experts are out there every week touting players as starts or sits, sleepers, etc.

yet I don’t recall anyone recommending the Seahawks RB who blew up outta nowhere last week, and the experts get a lot of stuff wrong as well. 

Opportunity isn’t enough to get excited about (see: Latavius Murray, sitting on the wire in one of my leagues despite likely starting this week). 

Also consider matchup, and up-to-date info about the matchup. Are there injuries on the line that might help a RB? In the secondary that might help a WR?  

And then I try to guess at game-flow. Having a 2-down back in a shootout isn’t very helpful. 

In the D/ST streamer topic I recommended against using the Pats, because they’re not that opportunistic, and tend to give up yards & points.

the first half of that game made me look like an idiot. The 2nd half made me look like a genius. I think they ended up with 8 points in performance scoring. Not an awesome day. At the surface they seemed like a great start - Luck short on weapons, on the road, short week, Pats coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins, etc. 

Just an example - not trying to toot my own horn, as I also make a lot of mistakes. For example I thought last week would be a Cole game - instead it was Westbrook who broke out. I was right that A Jags WR would have a huge game, I just guessed the wrong one.  

But i’d rather make an educated guess & miss than just throw crap against the wall or blindly go with the experts rankings.  

So i’d say my order is

1. Ability (talent of player) 

2. Opportunity (snap count) 

3. Matchup

4. Game-flow

5. Gut check

6. Dumb luck (never underestimate this - i’d almost always rather be lucky than good) 

rockaction said:

Yeah, I get that -- totally -- but I wouldn't kill a free flow conversation before it gets started. People might have ways of doing things, like SameSongNDance did, that are not only procedural, but substantive. I do get what you're saying, but why not get differing points of view? It aggregates, this information about information, if that's not too meta. 

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I will resist my tendency to take these discussions in my own direction. 

matuski said:

I will resist my tendency to take these discussions in my own direction. 

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Nah, man, you're fine. If you can provide something like (and I'm not saying that you are) the stock page/dart argument, do it. I think people can benefit from the thought experiment. In one of my main leagues a few years ago, people were like, "#### it," I'm doing auto draft (snake). Then they saw the auto draft and started freaking out over two kickers and the eleventh round, but it was fun to watch for us.

But that's not what you're saying, it's just welcome to hear divergent opinions. On my end.  

Great topic.  I should really think about it for a while, but I'll try off the top of my head. 

I've been playing FF for almost 25 years. I've been very successful in seasonal. I'm profitable in DFS, but I barely play it. My love is for seasonal.

Back in the days, there was very little information out there on strategy. Just a couple of magazines (often outdated by draft time), maybe a couple of weekly newspaper or website articles dedicated to FF. You basically relied on yourself to do well. With time, more and more websites, radio, and tv stations popped up giving the average player and novice the same access to information and strategies that you had figured out on your own. Back in those days, the really good players just dominated. It's become a lot harder now, but I still do really well. How?

1) Watch as much football as possible. Not everyone has the time to do so, but in today's information age, you need every edge you can get. If you love FF, then it's not a chore, but something you enjoy.

Well, everyone now has access to the same information. How do I differentiate a bit? I watch as much football as I can. I typically have about 7-8 games on my tvs and on my laptops/Ipads in the first set of games plus all the late games, Sunday, Monday, and Thursday night. How does that help?

You can see why things happen, not just the stats. I often see sites like Rotoworld tell you what player X only caught 3 passes for 40 yards. It won't say that he got open multiple times and under/over-thrown a few times or got a pass interference call. Some plays are called back for penalties. Maybe the player missed some time to an injury. Maybe his snaps were limited for some reason. Some players took advantage of injuries to key defenders or that the opposing CBs were so good that Team Y was forced to dump it to RBs or TEs over the middle. Basically, a lot of the reports and info lack context. It's not always the case. The good analysts also pick up on these things because they are also watching the games. Context adds a huge edge not only into performance, but on waiver wire pick-ups.

2) With everyone having access to the same information, often the edge comes in acting first. They key is doing this before all the sites tell the masses to do the same thing. It's not about racing to the computer. You have find the breakout players a week or days before they breakout. See above in #1 to get that extra context on potential breakout players. The downside is that you might have to give up some players maybe before you should. Maybe you feel good about a player, but you just can't wait on a player to come through or get his opportunity. That's probably my biggest weakness. Usually anyone I pick up is a good player at some point. I may have given up early because I need players to perform well in a week or 2 especially if I have a particular need, not a month or so from now. 

3) Have faith in your instincts. The average guy on a forum or some "expert" may disagree with you, but don't let crowd thinking affect you. Being different or ahead of the pack may be a key to success over the masses that are operating on mostly the same info. Trust your eyes from the games you watched.

4) No matter how good you think are, you don't know it all. Be open to opinions of others. I don't always comment on these boards, but I sure read them in my spare time. There are lots of good players that know their FF. Often they say things that make you go hmm. Maybe something you didn't realize yourself. Or maybe it's something that maybe makes you do some more research. 

5) I do a lot of research throughout the week. I'm constantly reading up on things. I keep track of my team needs and schedule. I keep lists of available players and track them. I look at Twitter or newspaper beat writers. If I didn't get to watch a guy play closely, I'll try to get opinions from people that did. I will read a guy like Waldman from Footballguys that watch film. I find that invaluable as opposed to "experts" that just base their recommendations on numbers. Again, it's from valuing actually watching players/games. I track Snapcounts closely. It's a cliche, but FF success is based on opportunity. I keep track of injuries and the opponents of my players (any shutdown corners?). I research defenses against my players.

It's a lot of work throughout the week for about 5 months and I don't expect people to do the same. There is no way I could do this if I had kids. 

Some other thoughts. 

Projections - I do my own for RBs because I've always been the FF RB guy. I've found myself getting a little lazier over time (whether from additional responsibilities or spoiled by success). I often would lump players into tiers and make a decision on who I would pick when it came time to it. This year I wanted to be clear up front on my rankings 1-20 or even lower.

Preparation - I had also gotten a bit lazier over time before the drafting period. This time I prepared harder before the season started. I also did about 30 Best Ball drafts (mostly auction because most of my leagues are auctions). I found myself having a major advantage over other players earlier in the draft process. We're only a month into the season, but for the most part, I think I nailed most of my player projections (whether on paper or in my head). Some players I thought were really risky and I avoided them for the most part although I might have a share or two in 40 drafts. The only ones that have cost me were injury related and there isn't much you can do about that. I wrestled with Fournette who was a big injury risk, but I offset it with that he would have a bigger role in the passing game. It looked that way until he got hurt. Doh.  I loved Goodwin, but he got hurt and then Jimmy G went down. I loved the RB position in SF. I lost McKinnon in a couple of leagues, but Breida has demonstrated value. I loved Cooks, JuJu, and Gordon (SD). I got Buck Allen in the last round of most drafts. I had tons of shares of Ebron as my TE2. I avoided Bell and grabbed Connor where I could in early drafts. I thought D. Johnson would be ok, but not the elite top 4 guy everyone predicted. I liked Elliott more than most people.  Collins and Drake scared me. I advocated against Robbie Anderson, etc.  Most of this probably from just taking the time to think out how I felt about players before the draft process started.

Not info related, but one major thing to do that helps your success is constantly upgrading your bench. I see a lot of teams draft a good starting team, but it all falls apart with injuries or changes in opportunity. Not enough depth kills this team. You should constantly churn your bench for improvements. You'll need the depth for injuries or to open up trade possibilities. 

Sorry for blabbering with my stream of consciousness post. I wanted to respond when I had the chance.  I hope I didn't come off too douchey either. It's kind of hard to discuss what you do well without sounding somewhat cocky. There are plenty of things I don't do well either like giving up on players too early or sometimes overpaying on the waiver wire. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

I try to look are several factors. As you mentioned - the experts are out there every week touting players as starts or sits, sleepers, etc.

yet I don’t recall anyone recommending the Seahawks RB who blew up outta nowhere last week, and the experts get a lot of stuff wrong as well. 

Opportunity isn’t enough to get excited about (see: Latavius Murray, sitting on the wire in one of my leagues despite likely starting this week). 

Also consider matchup, and up-to-date info about the matchup. Are there injuries on the line that might help a RB? In the secondary that might help a WR?  

And then I try to guess at game-flow. Having a 2-down back in a shootout isn’t very helpful. 

In the D/ST streamer topic I recommended against using the Pats, because they’re not that opportunistic, and tend to give up yards & points.

the first half of that game made me look like an idiot. The 2nd half made me look like a genius. I think they ended up with 8 points in performance scoring. Not an awesome day. At the surface they seemed like a great start - Luck short on weapons, on the road, short week, Pats coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins, etc. 

Just an example - not trying to toot my own horn, as I also make a lot of mistakes. For example I thought last week would be a Cole game - instead it was Westbrook who broke out. I was right that A Jags WR would have a huge game, I just guessed the wrong one.  

But i’d rather make an educated guess & miss than just throw crap against the wall or blindly go with the experts rankings.  

So i’d say my order is

1. Ability (talent of player) 

2. Opportunity (snap count) 

3. Matchup

4. Game-flow

5. Gut check

6. Dumb luck (never underestimate this - i’d almost always rather be lucky than good) 

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Excellent point on game-flow. However, like you stated, look at Murray against Buffalo. Sometimes it's on Any Given Sunday. You just never know. 

I avoid Seattle's RBs like the plague, but you would be hard-pressed to find anyone on Davis last week. I did hear an "expert" on radio yesterday that started him over Ajayi. That guy should have played the lottery, too. 

^This was the guy that gave me the idea and context for this thread. Mad props from one Jets fan to another. This -- and especially the post above it --  is worth reading. 

eta* I clicked too late, he's on a roll.

Oh, and maybe really converse with the guys on the boards instead of arguing or schtick. You don't have to be a gambler to know and love your stuff, just do it. You all -- and I'm generally an FF'aer if that should or could even be separated -- have helped me to four finals in six years and a title. 

I'll take that.  

daveR said:

I've begun to think, given the amount and availability of information these days, that it's important to focus on other aspects of FF which can strengthen your odds.  For years, I have bemoaned the fact that I KNOW which players are going to excel, but there's no way to acquire them.  While I typically end up doing well, there is another guy who wins frequently by leveraging friendships (and doing other shady things) to make advantageous deals.  So, info used to be the factor.  Now, I think it's a matter of expanding your game.

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I've always thought that it's not that hard given proper research to find which guys should do well in a draft. Getting them is a whole different story. In an auction draft, it just takes one other guy to like the same player and drive up his price. At what point is he worth it? In a snake draft, do you take him a round or two before everyone else? You just never know if someone else will select the player. On the waiver wire, someone may just out bid you . 

Leveraging relationships can be important when making trades. Some people are just more comfortable with familiar people. That said, some people are just morons. In one league, there is an owner that is basically a farm team to another owner. Shady? I don't think so. It can be frustrating when you keep getting significantly uneven deals and yet he gives away the farm in other deals with certain teams. I just think he is kind of clueless.

NYRAGE said:

Excellent point on game-flow. However, like you stated, look at Murray against Buffalo. Sometimes it's on Any Given Sunday. You just never know. 

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Right - but “talent” is above both opportunity & game-flow. And matchup is in there as well. BUF defense had underachieved to that point. 

And of them all, game-flow is a total guess - hopefully more a SWAG than a WAG, but a guess regardless. 

I avoid Seattle's RBs like the plague, but you would be hard-pressed to find anyone on Davis last week. I did hear an "expert" on radio yesterday that started him over Ajayi. That guy should have played the lottery, too. 

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Seriously. 

The point of that example though is that these random things can happen - some no-name comes in & blows up, rendering all the info we think we know to be moot. 

The best run defense inexplicably gives up a 200 yard rushing day to a RB2, or a weak pass defense shuts down a top 5 passing offense. 

How many times do we expect a SNF or MNF to be a fireworks display & it ends up 13-10? Seems like it happens allllll the time. 

The more we think we know, sometimes the less we do. So it’s important to consider as many data points as possible & attempt to distill that into something that makes sense to us. 

Agajn, we might be wrong, but at least we put in the effort. 

The really, really good fantasy experts have more data and put in more effort. Sometimes with better results, sometimes not. 

It’s a humbling game. 

Not info related, but one major thing to do that helps your success is constantly upgrading your bench. I see a lot of teams draft a good starting team, but it all falls apart with injuries or changes in opportunity. Not enough depth kills this team. You should constantly churn your bench for improvements. You'll need the depth for injuries or to open up trade possibilities. 

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This is a great advice. Never want to be stagnant - in my leagues there’s an add fee of $5, so I can’t constantly be churning, but I’ll add guys even if my lineup is stacked.

this year with my best team I drafted/stashed Jeffery & Ingram. So similar effect - here we are at the BYEs & I’m feeling really strong. 

In my other league I picked up Chubb. Someone posted “man, you don’t even need another RB!” I replied, “man, you *always* need running backs.”

your treasure today might be trash next week with a couple of injuries, and the best way to get the breakout player for the stretch run is to have rostered him long before he broke out. 

It’s challenging, and it requires scouring the FA list every week to see who might have been dropped - like this same league where Ridley was dropped in week 1. I claimed him before week 2, and started him week 3 for his 3 TD game. 

Always be hunting even if you’re not hungry today - you might be hungry tomorrow. Complacency kills.

Great advice in that post. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Right - but “talent” is above both opportunity & game-flow. And matchup is in there as well. BUF defense had underachieved to that point. 

And of them all, game-flow is a total guess - hopefully more a SWAG than a WAG, but a guess regardless. 

Seriously. 

The point of that example though is that these random things can happen - some no-name comes in & blows up, rendering all the info we think we know to be moot. 

The best run defense inexplicably gives up a 200 yard rushing day to a RB2, or a weak pass defense shuts down a top 5 passing offense. 

How many times do we expect a SNF or MNF to be a fireworks display & it ends up 13-10? Seems like it happens allllll the time. 

The more we think we know, sometimes the less we do. So it’s important to consider as many data points as possible & attempt to distill that into something that makes sense to us. 

Agajn, we might be wrong, but at least we put in the effort. 

The really, really good fantasy experts have more data and put in more effort. Sometimes with better results, sometimes not. 

It’s a humbling game. 

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Good points. 

Maybe my last words on the topic. At the end of the day, I rather win or lose based on my thoughts than on some "experts". Take in all the information that you have and make your own best estimate of what happens. There are lots of variables. You don't have control over what happens. Just try to make informed decisions and live with it. 

Some of these "experts" are bad at Fantasy Football. They're good at getting a platform for giving advice, but their advice isn't necessarily good. There is good and bad in every profession/hobby. 

Hey, on a human note, I have a head cold so I'll be in and out of the thread. Thanks to Hot Sauce Guy and NYRAGE for the conversation.  

I totally agree about the watch football point. Watch as much as you can. If you can afford it, get Game Pass. If you can afford All 22 (and it used to be a surcharge, though they may have bundled it), well, that doesn't always help so much unless you know what you're looking for. 

But watch the games. It helps so much. The best team I ever had didn't win, but it was the team I watched the most. (It was the year Tony Romo and Roethlisberger were both out for the finals with Laurent Robinson and AB.)

There's no substitute for eye scouting in fantasy football, because nobody else is willing to put in the time. The money, though...understandable. 

PFF used to put grades out with their $39.99 subscription. 

Holy crikey! 

NYRAGE said:

Good points. 

Maybe my last words on the topic. At the end of the day, I rather win or lose based on my thoughts than on some "experts". Take in all the information that you have and make your own best estimate of what happens. There are lots of variables. You don't have control over what happens. Just try to make informed decisions and live with it. 

Some of these "experts" are bad at Fantasy Football. They're good at getting a platform for giving advice, but their advice isn't necessarily good. There is good and bad in every profession/hobby. 

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Well said & I agree completely. 

If I make a bad decision based on a well reasoned process, I can live with that. 

If the process is good, more often the results will be good. 

Luck is a huge factor as well though. 

Great post.

It's true that a universe of fantasy information is available at everyone's fingertips. But a large percentage of fantasy "experts" are not even significant winners within the game. Following the advice of a loser is a pretty good recipe for being a loser. Developing instincts to discern good takes from bad takes is a fundamental skill. 

Statistics are widely available but fantasy football isn't some Sudoku puzzle where the goal is to look at every player's points per game from the last season and assemble the lineup with the highest score value. The most undervalued skill is seeing beyond the numbers and unlocking true player values. To do this you must be a master of context, understanding which players are actually good, which players were held down by forces outside their control, and which players were inflated by external conditions that may not repeat. Most fantasy players are fairly bad at this so getting even a little bit good at it will give you a pretty significant edge. 

When listening to an expert or formulating your own opinions the foundation should always be a close, close study of the game. There is no substitute. You either need to be able to watch football and see things the average guy misses or find an expert or experts who do this well and use them to your advantage.

Lastly if anyone tells you fantasy football is "all luck" or just a guessing game tune them out immediately. This is the biggest sucker opinion out there.

I’ve been going hard at this hobby for a long while now, over twenty five years.  Those of us who remember the fax, answering machine, and hand crunching league stats days of fantasy football will also remember that ESPN, USA Today, and the fantasy index were about it for sources.  Now how many magazines, websites, and entire tv shows do we have access to? Info overload is a real thing. I’m back full circle as a minimalist. News blogger and Shark pool are all I use in season. After years of reading posts, I’ve come to trust certain people’s analysis. An invaluable resource for success.

Those are the stories and methods about which I'm interested. Interested in FF's historical roots and how people adapted to the modern era. There's a dynamism and monetary renumeration to it that makes it fascinating. This will sound corny, but electric Ape and KickinT also wrote really interesting stuff. I hope this thread sort of stays around and allows people to bounce things off of each other, etc. 

I also used to argue endlessly with my league mates that this game is all luck. Then I won some championships and thought the contrary. Now I’m back to mostly luck. If Lady Luck don’t like you, you won’t get far.

KickinT said:

News blogger and Shark pool are all I use in season. After years of reading posts, I’ve come to trust certain people’s analysis. An invaluable resource for success.

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Do tell. 

rockaction said:

Those are the stories and methods about which I'm interested. Interested in FF's historical roots and how people adapted to the modern era. There's a dynamism and monetary renumeration to it that makes it fascinating. This will sound corny, but electric Ape and KickinT also wrote really interesting stuff. I hope this thread sort of stays around and allows people to bounce things off of each other, etc. 

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Information Age cost me a championship title. 

I had my team all set - 10 mins before the game I got a news alert - DeSean Foster was starting for the Niners! 

I benched my RB2 & put Foster in - an 11 point swing in an LCG I lost by 3 points.

i never would have made that move if I hadn’t received that alert - ignorance is bliss. 

KickinT said:

I’ve been going hard at this hobby for a long while now, over twenty five years.  Those of us who remember the fax, answering machine, and hand crunching league stats days of fantasy football will also remember that ESPN, USA Today, and the fantasy index were about it for sources.  Now how many magazines, websites, and entire tv shows do we have access to? Info overload is a real thing. I’m back full circle as a minimalist. News blogger and Shark pool are all I use in season. After years of reading posts, I’ve come to trust certain people’s analysis. An invaluable resource for success.

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Same. As a professional and a father I have almost no time to read Twitter and so forth. I get my fbg updates which are usually a day late but give me news that I may have missed. the SP is a great melting pot for every source of info. Certain posters are much more trustworthy for information than others. I particularly like a few for each individual NFL team. there are some who follow their local teams way more closely than I can. It's why I spend my time here. I only hope I can reciprocate some of that value for information as much as possible 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Information Age cost me a championship title. 

I had my team all set - 10 mins before the game I got a news alert - DeSean Foster was starting for the Niners! 

I benched my RB2 & put Foster in - an 11 point swing in an LCG I lost by 3 points.

i never would have made that move if I hadn’t received that alert - ignorance is bliss. 

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Dang. Not giving a like for that. That stinks like brunch fish.  

eta* oh, okay, it doesn't matter but I did. Cool story -- and not bro.  

Which RB2? I started Hillis one year in a title game because Forte had gotten hurt, Barber benched, and he got stopped three times at the one. 

I lost by three. 

starks said:

Do tell. 

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I can’t as much as I like you starks, tell the whole world where I catch fish.

I will say that almost every team has at least one knowledgeable homer hanging out.

KickinT said:

I also used to argue endlessly with my league mates that this game is all luck. Then I won some championships and thought the contrary. Now I’m back to mostly luck. If Lady Luck don’t like you, you won’t get far.

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There is a ton of luck/randomness in fantasy football (which, contrary to popular opinion, is actually a good thing). But skill remains the dominant factor.

One of the maddening things about fantasy football is the pace of it. Even if you play in a lot of leagues you probably only have 5 or 6 games a week. Poker players might see 1000 hands in a day. Fantasy players often think the game is all luck because they can make good decisions and still go on a multi-year dry spell. But the fundamentals of FF are similar to poker. In the short term luck is a very significant factor but over time the best players win out.

I'm not qualified to speak but I thought the Ebron situation on TNF was really interesting. I went through all these factors as I considered starting him vs other TEs. 1. Luck leaned on his TEs in college and pro, but that TE was inevitably Fleener, which is now gone. 2. Luck might still have a twingy shoulder and he's not throwing downfield like he used to, his ypa is down from what it used to be. 3. Luck's o-line often sucks so he has to get rid of the ball quickly. 4. Ebron is already on a low ypc rate vs TDs rate. He was living on low percentage scoring. 5. NE is good at home, they just destroyed Mia (again), appeared to be on a get better stretch, and BB always schemes out a team's best receiver. 6. Hilton was out. 7. More Colts linemen were out. This might mean a. Ebron blocks more or b. Luck will be looking for his big target to get the ball out more quickly. 8. Ebron was ranked decently for this game but not great, here and elsewhere, so maybe I could do better. 9. Ebron is not exactly a reliable pass receiver and historically he's inconsistent. 10. NE would likely go up and Indy would be looking to push the ball upfield via the pass all night. 11. NE was ranked no. 1 vs TEs in FFPA, otoh their opponents had included TE weak teams like Mia & Jax.

That's one lineup decision and those are all the steps I considered. Started him in one league, benched him in another.

I read threads here, listen to the Audible, check Reddit, and read The Worksheet on Rotoworld. These are where I can expose myself to the most opinions/info I trust. 

After that I'm just use my "gut" or "reasoning" to decide. Tiebreaker for WDIS is based on Vegas O/U. Tiebreaker between 2 players (trade/waiver wire/cut) is based on  opportunity  (snaps & touches). 

Third I realize fantasy is luck and so I usually just try to acquire as many lottery tickets as possible. Even if I don't "think" an unknown player will do well when presented with a new opportunity, I'll add them to my roster if I can. Basically it's the Gretzky mentality....you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

Everyone has the same access info like you said, so having guidelines and exposing myself to the most "risk/variance" is what I do.

Charlie Harper said:

Basically it's the Gretzky mentality....you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

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Love your take, but was that really Gretz?  

SaintsInDome2006 said:

I'm not qualified to speak but I thought the Ebron situation on TNF was really interesting. I went through all these factors as I considered starting him vs other TEs. 1. Luck leaned on his TEs in college and pro, but that TE was inevitably Fleener, which is now gone. 2. Luck might still have a twingy shoulder and he's not throwing downfield like he used to, his ypa is down from what it used to be. 3. Luck's o-line often sucks so he has to get rid of the ball quickly. 4. Ebron is already on a low ypc rate vs TDs rate. He was living on low percentage scoring. 5. NE is good at home, they just destroyed Mia (again), appeared to be on a get better stretch, and BB always schemes out a team's best receiver. 6. Hilton was out. 7. More Colts linemen were out. This might mean a. Ebron blocks more or b. Luck will be looking for his big target to get the ball out more quickly. 8. Ebron was ranked decently for this game but not great, here and elsewhere, so maybe I could do better. 9. Ebron is not exactly a reliable pass receiver and historically he's inconsistent. 10. NE would likely go up and Indy would be looking to push the ball upfield via the pass all night. 11. NE was ranked no. 1 vs TEs in FFPA, otoh their opponents had included TE weak teams like Mia & Jax.

That's one lineup decision and those are all the steps I considered. Started him in one league, benched him in another.

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You won your leeg!  

What bothers me that in my 12 team work league one guy has won 2 out of 3 years and he never did the draft.  His team was on auto pick.    Of course he made some drop and adds but it was still annoying.

Da Guru said:

What bothers me that in my 12 team work league one guy has won 2 out of 3 years and he never did the draft.  His team was on auto pick.    Of course he made some drop and adds but it was still annoying.

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Yep. That's what I was alluding to upthread with matuski. 

One thing I’ve started doing in recent years is building depth over quality because it’s so hard to predict. I want to be able to shift on the fly. I handcuff more now and hoard. Position scarcity is something I look at also. 

I read what @SameSongNDance writes and then I do that.

Chaka said:

I read what @SameSongNDance writes and then I do that.

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I had him also specifically in mind. I just didn't want to "at" him out of concern for work/privacy/etc