Zyphros
Footballguy
All good, just don't know why I was quoted.
My 1.01 at the moment isn't Etienne either, it's Williams. I can see a case for all of the guys you mentioned though too.
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RB Travis Etienne, JAX (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter dahabi
- Start date
My 1.01 at the moment isn't Etienne either, it's Williams. I can see a case for all of the guys you mentioned though too.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
My bad, I should have just posted without quoting. As for Williams 1.01, you know I'm fine with that. However, if I need lots of pieces to compete it's either Chase or Williams. If I'm a contender I wouldn't blame anyone who took Harris. People right now are looking at his age as not a big deal, but depending on what you will have to do to compete, IT IS A BIG DEAL. It takes more guts to take Williams over Etienne and even more guts to take him over Harris. So, to hell with it, if I'm a bad team and need a lot to compete, the safe choice is Chase.
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Faust
MVP
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Spiller did have a 1700/8 season so it's understandable why people were full in on thy hype by that point
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am not sure why people are cooling on ETN so much? Yes, his YPC dipped in 2020. Yes, he made a bad decision coming back.
HOWEVER
He averaged 136 and 1.5 per game in 2019. He averaged 125 and 1.3 per game in 2020. Not much of a dip in production.
At age 19, he averaged 8.1 ypc and piled 1700/26 in the ACC.
Has 85 receptions over the last 2 seasons turning a weakness into a strength.
Had huge games throughout his career against the best competiton: Bama, tOSU, ND, etc.
Is likely to have sub 4.4 speed
Doesn't have the ideal size but checks the box as being big enough
No injury history
Sure he came back for his senior year but just turned 22 in January. He is still younger than Harris is about to turn 23. He's just a couple months older than Gainwell, Carter, etc.
HOWEVER
He averaged 136 and 1.5 per game in 2019. He averaged 125 and 1.3 per game in 2020. Not much of a dip in production.
At age 19, he averaged 8.1 ypc and piled 1700/26 in the ACC.
Has 85 receptions over the last 2 seasons turning a weakness into a strength.
Had huge games throughout his career against the best competiton: Bama, tOSU, ND, etc.
Is likely to have sub 4.4 speed
Doesn't have the ideal size but checks the box as being big enough
No injury history
Sure he came back for his senior year but just turned 22 in January. He is still younger than Harris is about to turn 23. He's just a couple months older than Gainwell, Carter, etc.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Recency bias. He has weaknesses between the tackles, but they aren't deal breakers. I can't imagine he's any less than 1a with an emphasis on the pass game between the second half of this season through his rookie contract. I'm not spending time squabbling over it, but if I were in a position to pick him my question would be how many WR's to pick before him. Cause it'd take unique landing spots for me to consider Harris (or Williams) over him.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think this WR class is comparable to last year's. Like 2020, must leave this class with one pass catcher and preferably two.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
seems weird I haven't black starred him yet
rockaction
Footballguy
Very big deal to me. I suppose it'll get bigger for others come draft day. You're looking at the almost undeniable fact that guys are dropping off -- in fantasy scoring, at least -- at the age of twenty-six. Twenty-five is the last year they dominate the upper echelons of scoring, statistically speaking. Twenty-six and they're fully into decline mode. Not that you won't get high-end years out of twenty-six year olds, but it's becoming rarer. I know some people disagree with me on that, but I keep seeing numbers that suggest otherwise, though again, it could be because they only started measuring these guys about seven or eight years ago in this way. That said, Derrick Henry and now Alvin Kamara come to mind as obvious examples to the contrary. So I guess it depends upon the individual, though if you're seeking to excise as much personal/scouting judgment as you can from your roster decisions and are going for stats, then I'd stick with the dump at twenty-six philosophy.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I would be curious to see those same studies done for years NFL experience instead of age. Is a guy who comes out at 21 more likely to get an extra year of top level production than a 22 year old is it more connected to wear/tear or when they initial rookie deals end and teams likelihood of resigning and using in the same role. It definitely makes me think in a league where I am rebuilding from the ground up, I probably want to build a WR base first and then play the rolling young RB game.
rockaction
Footballguy
I get what you're saying. Might be interesting to track down. Best to my knowledge, the studies center on age, otherwise you might have too many variables in there. Just spitballing. I don't know, really. It seems like the other factors are important, but there was work done on professional touches and there wasn't too much of a correlation found, if I'm not mistaken. They tried to study whether a back broke down after 300 or 350 touches and found it statistically insignificant, IIRC.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't think you're wrong, but I think rookie RB contracts and the reticence by GMs to pay them a big 2nd contract (obviously some exceptions) has as much or more to do with this than natural physical decline.
It doesn't matter, though, if it is true.
As for the physical decline, what I have seen and read is that *if* there is a decline it tends to be sudden. But that doesn't mean RBs can't produce far past that threshold. It's just that when they don't, they really don't. It may have as much to do with their talent and a club's belief in them as an age number or a number of touches, though.
Either way, age matters.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I'm curious... What everyone's take on Etienne's slightly weird running gait? Granted, he has great acceleration and speed but sometime he displays duck footed running gait.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Don’t care at all. His athleticism isn’t a question at all. His production is off the charts against top competition. Looking at something like gait to me just seems like overanalysis.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Are you talking about his footwork at times being such that he is planting at an angle to help him cut laterally?
Or is it something else?
I recall making this observation about Chris Carson. I have since learned how this technique is actually really useful for a RB as I learned more about footwork.
Perhaps you mean something else by duck footed though. I am not sure.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Yeah, there's no way we could identify one of the draft's best backs without the help of Jeremiah.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Sometimes I forget that talking heads are appealing to the casual fan and I say "no sh.." in my head a lot
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I like to compare potential of an up coming draft to recent RBs already on a team. How about Dobbins vs Etienne vs Akers? I personally think Dobbins is the better RB of the three, but you can't deny the fact that Akers is going to be the more valuable in fantasy in 2021 due to work load. I can see Dobbins getting 12 to 16 touches a game and frankly, that isn't enough for sustained fantasy success. I project Etienne having a similar role eventually, but probably only about 8 touches a game his first year. He's bound to always be in a RBBC and the lesser half initially. I think Dobbins will get the upper portion of a RBBC this year for sure, with hopes of more, but I'm not holding my breath. Even with someone like Javonte Williams, he probably won't be that fantasy relevant his first year, but he does have bell cow written all over him and I would love it if Pittsburgh drafted him.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Do you trust that without a combine? Also, what kind of weight is it? Fat or muscle? Size aside, my main issue with Etienne is his vision. He seems to be a straight line runner to me. How will he do in the passing game with pass blocking (not a huge concern with me)? How will he be with contact balance and breaking tackles? Those holes won't be as wide at the next level.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm more with you than against you here. I am not that excited about him either.
But the answers to those questions are either obvious through observation or inference.
I think there's very, very little chance that a guy that returned to school to improve his draft stock is going to show up fat to his pro day.
How will he do in the passing game? He caught 37 and 48 passes the last two years.
Contact balance and tackle breaking, I guess he's adequate but not on par with the other two RBs in consideration. But that should be answerable by watching film and deciding on ones own.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I have Etienne in one devy league and I know I've been ragging on him some, perhaps too much. He was very bad against ND in their first meeting and pedestrian against the likes of Georgia Tech, but i suppose every back has a bad day. At the end of the day I prefer Harris, Chase, or Williams. Perhaps I'll regret that this time next year. I worry he's the next C J Spiller.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Do you meant his game vs ND in 2018 or in 2020??
Show me one play where you think he displays poor vision from either game. This is the main thing I look for and I am not seeing that.
I am seeing ND dominate LOS more in 2020 than 2018. Lots of safety blitzes and run dogging going on from them in the 2020 game. Not sure what you expect him or any RB to do with that many defenders on you about the same time as the hand off.
Show me one play where you think he displays poor vision from either game. This is the main thing I look for and I am not seeing that.
I am seeing ND dominate LOS more in 2020 than 2018. Lots of safety blitzes and run dogging going on from them in the 2020 game. Not sure what you expect him or any RB to do with that many defenders on you about the same time as the hand off.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I've read several opinions that say he needs to improve his patience and they mention his vision isn't all that great, but other sites say his vision is either adequate or or good. Let's say is vision is average to good and his lack of patience is overblown, I seriously doubt his abilities for yards after contact. I usually don't like to do player comparisons, especially former players from the same program, but visions of C.J. Spiller dance in my head and worry me some. That could be unfounded as well as his patience and vision, but he will find a harder go of it between the tackles than those truck sized holes at Clemson. His wiggle comes into question as well. If used properly I think he will have success in PPR leagues if his deficiencies in pass protection are also overblown. Perhaps this is all paralysis by analysis. I liked him last year and took him in a devy league.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I think @JohnnyU is referring to the Regular Season game where Etienne had a 1.6 YPC on 18 attempts. He didn't do much that game. I was high on J. Williams and he is skyrocketing to the top of some Fantasy Analyst boards, which sucks for me picking in the middle of this rookie draft... but I do think a lot of when these guys are drafted depends on where they play in the NFL.
I just think Etienne is widely looked at as a RB who played with the top QB and still managed a couple "Meh" games. Where Williams didn't have much of a team around him?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn't say Williams didn't have much of a team around him. They had one of the best offenses in the nation, with a great OL, another great RB in Carter, and probably the top pick in next year's draft in Sam Howell.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So its more about what you have read of peoples analysis of ETN than what you see in these games?
I was asking for an example of him having a hole but not seeing it. Or where if he had patience and waited for blocking to develop, having a better opportunity.
Zyphros compared him to Spiller several months ago and I disagree with that. I think Spiller was faster than ETN for one thing and I dont think ETN has poor vision like Spiller had.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah his game vs ND in 2018 isnt that great but he has a huge run on a play right up the middle where the defense was cutting off the outside gaps. Big run saves his day statistically in that one.
The 2020 game I linked he doesnt get anything going, but ND is in the backfield on almost every play. So the problem isnt vision here. He had no where to go.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I watched Etienne a lot during his Clemson Career because they were on national tv a lot, but yes, my method of evaluating players is a combination of reading a lot to get many perspectives, watching a lot of podcasts on devy and dynasty players, and to a lesser degree watching a lot of their games or highlight videos. Pointing out a couple of games isn't fair to the process. I could have also mentioned his last game against OSU and his 3.2 yard average, but I didn't. I think it is shallow minded to base your entire opinion on a couple of games. Sorry if it seemed I did.
ETA: Like I said, I don't like doing player comps, but I worry about Etienne having a Spiller like career. I own him in a devy league and hope he sets the league on fire, but.....
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would compare ETN to Clyde Edwards Helare. I think they are similar build and style and that ETN is a plus receiving RB like CEH. He makes a nice contested catch downfield in one of those 2 cut ups I just watched.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
....and I bet a lot of fantasy owners who had the 1.1 wished they had selected Taylor instead of CEH. A lot did, but in several of my leagues CEH was taken at 1.1 because he landed with KC. I bet they wish they had a do over. I see ETN being mocked as the 1.2 in most drafts, or 1.3 if Chase is taken at 1.2. Whether ETN lands in a great spot or not, I'd be willing to bet most will take him over Javonte Williams. I can see Williams being more like Taylor and like you said, ETN more like CEH.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Williams reminds me of DeShaun Foster not Taylor.
I suppose the CEH comparison is a turn off for people. Not my intent by the comparison, I am mostly talking about play style when I make comparisons.
etra - I am comparing the players as prospects and ETN is a better prospect than CEH was. He has a longer track record of success.
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Boston
Footballguy
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
That is a big difference. I do think ETN is a better RB than CEH.
He is my top RB of 2020 and I think he is on par with Dobbins and Swift from last year.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Etienne is closer in style to McCaffrey than CEH.
https://twitter.com/accnetwork/status/1370031292574797829/video/1
Never take a Pro Day 40 at face value. His 4.40 is more like 4.45-4.5 flat.
Etienne must want to be heavier for the NFL, but wow does he look fat.
Never take a Pro Day 40 at face value. His 4.40 is more like 4.45-4.5 flat.
Etienne must want to be heavier for the NFL, but wow does he look fat.
