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Dynasty & Redraft: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins 08.29.21 - MRI confirms torn ACL and Dobbins will miss the 2021 season


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18 hours ago, menobrown said:

Regarding the bolded:

I don't think the real actual NFL decision makers put nearly as much stock in the 40 time as some of you do. I mean we just saw a RB run a 4.62 pro day go in round one as first RB off the board last year.

I don't think I mentioned fantasy one time in my post so not sure why you keep saying all that stuff. That was actual simply the actual NFL rushing leaders I was referencing.

 

I had to break up my searches here so pardon the formatting:

Between 2000-2005: 18, 1st round RB’s. 7 of the 18 ran above 4.55.

Between 2006-2011: 18, 1st round RB’s. 1 of the 18 ran above 4.55.

Between 2012-2019: 12, 1st round RB’s. 1 of the 12 ran above 4.55.

Edited by Iceman03
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1 hour ago, Iceman03 said:

I had to break up my searches here so pardon the formatting:

Between 2000-2005: 18, 1st round RB’s. 7 of the 18 ran above 4.55.

Between 2006-2011: 18, 1st round RB’s. 1 of the 18 ran above 4.55.

Between 2012-2019: 12, 1st round RB’s. 1 of the 12 ran above 4.55.

Wasn't @menobrown using 4.45 as a cutoff? Not sure how much that matters.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Wasn't @menobrown using 4.45 as a cutoff? Not sure how much that matters.

I’m not sure. I didn’t want to jump in the middle of the argument just show what the NFL does. The only 4.6 plus guys drafted round 1 since 2006 were Mark Ingram and Josh Jacobs. I don’t think pointing to Jacobs as “the NFL doesn’t care” isn’t the reality of the situation. 

ETA: Reality of the situation for first rounders*

Edited by Iceman03
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4 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

I had to break up my searches here so pardon the formatting:

Between 2000-2005: 18, 1st round RB’s. 7 of the 18 ran above 4.55.

Between 2006-2011: 18, 1st round RB’s. 1 of the 18 ran above 4.55.

Between 2012-2019: 12, 1st round RB’s. 1 of the 12 ran above 4.55.

No offense but that does not really tell me anything. I would venture to guess most of the RB's who are chosen are more naturally athletic then those that are not.

Using that arbitrary 4.55 forty time and that similar arbitrary 2000-2019 timeframe I come up with 70 RB's who ran under 4.55 who did not get drafted.

There is probably no way to know this answer. It's why I simply replied to the last person who said it impacts draft stock as your opinion, not mine.

Teams tell us this every year but I guess no one believes them, that most of their draft board is set before the combine.  A drastically fast or slow 40 time might move them but unless it's something crazy one way or the other I don't think it impacts them. Again I don't see a way for anyone to use stats to prove one person's theory right or wrong.

Al Davis by the way would have been an exception to everything I'm saying but he was a different guy.

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

No offense but that does not really tell me anything. I would venture to guess most of the RB's who are chosen are more naturally athletic then those that are not.

Using that arbitrary 4.55 forty time and that similar arbitrary 2000-2019 timeframe I come up with 70 RB's who ran under 4.55 who did not get drafted.

There is probably no way to know this answer. It's why I simply replied to the last person who said it impacts draft stock as your opinion, not mine.

Teams tell us this every year but I guess no one believes them, that most of their draft board is set before the combine.  A drastically fast or slow 40 time might move them but unless it's something crazy one way or the other I don't think it impacts them. Again I don't see a way for anyone to use stats to prove one person's theory right or wrong.

Al Davis by the way would have been an exception to everything I'm saying but he was a different guy.

Whether it effects “draft stock” or not, it effects being a first round pick. Honestly I don’t care where he goes and as long as he runs under a 4.6 I’d probably consider it ok, prefer close to or below 4.5. Especially at 209. 

Edited by Iceman03
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18 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Whether it effects “draft stock” or not, it effects being a first round pick. Honestly I don’t care where he goes and as long as he runs under a 4.6 I’d probably consider it ok, prefer close to or below 4.5. Especially at 209. 

Again, as I told the last person, your opinion not mine.

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Just now, Iceman03 said:

It’s not an opinion when it’s happened twice in 15 years. This isn't feelings.

 Difference between me and you is I respect your right to have your opinion and you try and pawn off your opinion as facts. I don't care to engage any longer with people like this(you).

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12 minutes ago, menobrown said:

 Difference between me and you is I respect your right to have your opinion and you try and pawn off your opinion as facts. I don't care to engage any longer with people like this(you).

You just engaged me. You try to argue against facts by calling them opinions. Don’t worry, I’ll mute your silliness. It’s clear you don’t want to add anything of relevance to this board anyway. Just want to be “right”.

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

Yea I can see were saying I respect your right to have your opinion would be taken as arrogant and full of myself.  How awful of me to say.

I wasn't even involved in the conversation, but I don't think anyone reading your messages would find them respectful. You're clearly looking to troll people here because you're having a bad day.

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7 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Is Dobbins still suffering from a high ankle sprain that could affect whether he runs the 40, or doesn't do well?  

The last I heard Dobbins was uncertain if he will run all the drills at the combine because he is still feeling the affects of the HAS he is recovering from.

That was yesterday or a couple days ago though. Not sure if he has made up his mind for tomorrow or not.

As far as the discussion about if these drills matter or not for RB success, well this study shows that 40 time is the most important metric for this position, followed by 3 cone and then you have weight and vertical jumps as less strong metrics. Other metrics did not matter.

In a follow up article they found that teams draft WR with higher bench press numbers than how the WR perform in the NFL. So the teams are valuing that even though it doesn't lead to success as measured by the study.

The metrics for WR are the least predictive of all of the positions.

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Quote

Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins posted 23 bench press reps at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Dobbins (5'9/209) was in the upper-echelon of RB's on the bench, as his 23 reps is a strong showing for a back his size. The AP All-American and Big Ten Running Back of the Year eclipsed the 2,000 yard mark in 2019 and is considered to be one of the top-five running backs in the 2020 draft class. The Athletic's Dan Brugler is perhaps the highest on Dobbins, grading him as the top RB in a very talented group. He views Dobbins as a potential Day 1 selection though he cautions that there may not be a RB selected in the first 20 picks.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Feb 28, 2020, 1:13 PM ET

 

 

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NFL Network's Kimberly Jones reports that Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins won't take part in athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Dobbins (5/9/209) suffered a high-ankle sprain during OSU's Playoff semifinal loss to Clemson at the end of December and came into the combine week up-in-the-air as to whether he would test. Looks like that would be a negative. Assuming Dobbins is at full strength in a month, he'll have a shot to go through his testing paces during Ohio State's pro day on March 25.

SOURCE: Kevin Noon on Twitter

Feb 28, 2020, 5:34 PM ET

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

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Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins visited the Dolphins on Friday.

All reports signal the Dolphins "hope to land a long-term running back in the first three rounds of the draft" and Dobbins is clearly among that group. Running backs coach Eric Studesville also worked with Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor at the Badgers' recent Pro Day. LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Georgia's D'Andre Swift, Florida State's Cam Akers, and Utah's Zack Moss are among the other candidates Miami has expressed interest in.

RELATED: 

Miami Dolphins

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Mar 13, 2020, 10:29 AM ET

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

 

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Pro Football Network's Tone Pauline writes Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins "offers potential as a feature back at the next level as a runner and pass catcher."

While Pauline shares concerns about Dobbins (5'9/209) being a "one-speed" back whose one speed is not particularly threatening, he is impressed with every other aspect of the Buckeye RB's game. Pauline writes Dobbins is a "skilled ball carrier" who "displays great patience, waits for blocks to develop and effectively uses them everywhere on the field." As far as the intricacies of the position goes, Dobbins checks all the boxes and should be able to at least provide a baseline quality of play in all phases of the game. Expect Dobbins to be one of the first RBs off the board on draft weekend. 

SOURCE: Pro Football Network

Mar 30, 2020, 4:25 PM ET

 

 

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[Yates] One position that some believe would be worth even more investment on offense for the Chiefs would be running back. A pairing that seems to make sense is Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins if he’s available at pick 32. He’s a player they’ve FaceTimed with. One of the draft’s top backs.

 

https://twitter.com/fieldyates/status/1246170338922242048?s=21

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1 hour ago, zeeshan2 said:

[Yates] One position that some believe would be worth even more investment on offense for the Chiefs would be running back. A pairing that seems to make sense is Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins if he’s available at pick 32. He’s a player they’ve FaceTimed with. One of the draft’s top backs.

 

https://twitter.com/fieldyates/status/1246170338922242048?s=21

Drool

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1 hour ago, pbandy1 said:

my favorite RB in the draft. Already have a lot of him in bestball

Him to the Chiefs would just be...

It's going to be Swift to the Chiefs if he makes it that far because they're not going to be able to resist it.

That's my call. You heard it here first. Swift is the first back taken by Miami or KC.  

eta* Y'all realize this is just an opinion, right? ;)

Edited by rockaction
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7 hours ago, rockaction said:

It's going to be Swift to the Chiefs if he makes it that far because they're not going to be able to resist it.

That's my call. You heard it here first. Swift is the first back taken by Miami or KC.  

eta* Y'all realize this is just an opinion, right? ;)

I don’t think KC will Draft a running back in the 1st because there’s no for them to do so. I could see them maybe drafting one in the 2nd or 3rd but Williams performed well in the playoffs. It shouldn’t be a major priority unless Swift falls to them in the 2nd. It seems as if you’re saying they’ll draft him if he falls in the 1st round, I’m just not 100% sure that’s a high priority for them unless they view it as a luxury pic.

MHO,

Tex

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26 minutes ago, BigTex said:

I don’t think KC will Draft a running back in the 1st because there’s no for them to do so. I could see them maybe drafting one in the 2nd or 3rd but Williams performed well in the playoffs. It shouldn’t be a major priority unless Swift falls to them in the 2nd. It seems as if you’re saying they’ll draft him if he falls in the 1st round, I’m just not 100% sure that’s a high priority for them unless they view it as a luxury pic.

MHO,

Tex

I think you're right. I was spitballing because I hold the 1.01 in dynasty and want to see Swift there as the piece of the draft to maybe trade down and pick up a bounty of picks for it. So that this helps others, I think KC picks at 32, 63, 96, 138, and 177.

Swift likely does not make it at all to the Chiefs, much less to 63, which is likely where the Chiefs would take him. I'm kidding about them not being able to resist at 32 and realize he may not even be there. All talk at this point is conjecture. 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

If Dobbins goes to TB he should be 1.01

Sigmund Bloom and company were pooh-poohing TB as a good RB destination. I think they gave it an "eh..."

I personally love that location for any pass-catching back. Brady will pepper them. But they'd better be able to pass protect. I don't see Jones getting in the way of a dynamic rookie back if the rookie can pass protect at all. Jones got benched for that at one point in a game last year. And Barber is now on the Redskins. Dare didn't really flash. I see TB as a dream spot for a rookie RB.

TB picks are:

14th, 45th, 76th, 117 and beyond

Edited by rockaction
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When I watched Dobbins play I never walked away impressed. His huge plays always seemed to be truck-sized holes. This seemed very different than a lot of Taylor's big runs. Taylor seems to thrive weaving through traffic avoiding would be tacklers and breaking free. Of course this is an amateur outlook from a guy who watches highlights and catches a few games on TV. 

Love the fact that Dobbins seems to be a three down back and would be excited if he went to a great situation (KC, Pitt). I would probably avoid if he ends up with a lower tier organization however.

Edited by King of the Jungle
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1 hour ago, ty247 said:

Seems like he's not exactly thrilled with Dobbins as a prospect.

Yeah there is a tweet where he does his little write up boxes that shows Dobbins next to Johnathan Taylor. I had to try a few times before I saw that.

Bottom line Dobbins isn't heavy enough so therefore not a foundation RB. Cosell is consistent.

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20 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

OSU guys-

Why did Dobbins have such a great freshman year and then lose carries to Weber 2018? 2019 was a huge year... 2017 was impressive as well... but what happened in 2018? 

Weber was playing injured 2017, so Dobbins got the bulk. The team wanted to do more of an even split in 2018 and neither of them ever really got into a rhythm. Lots of blame to go around- program dysfunction, poor o line play, but JK said it himself - we just didn't play well. 

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I believe OSU WANTED to split touches (230 to 172) between Dobbins and Weber no matter what in 2018.  Weber had 5.5 ypc and Dobbins 4.6.  Couple that with overall team ability to run being down from most years, you have the end result you see.  Dobbins had 1053 yards rushing and Weber 954, but overall OSU wasn't as successful running the ball 2018 as in year's past.

Edited by JohnnyU
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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins 08.29.21 - MRI confirms torn ACL and Dobbins will miss the 2021 season

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