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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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My friend's 93 yo mom was taken from assisted living to the ER. Fever, sore throat, cough, shortness of breath. Friend is 2 hours away. No matter, no one can visit. She just gave the ok to give the coronavirus test to her mom. She called the assisted living to give heads up. Friend is freaking because we visited mother about 3 weeks ago, March 6. Friend has pulmonary issues. Told her this far out with no symptoms we should be ok. Oy 

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44 minutes ago, Phil Elliott said:

On the positive side, we have received several deliveries a day earlier than expected during the past week. Includes Prime, UPS and Fed Ex. 

They've been running a day or three late for me. Why are they treating you special? Hmmmmm?

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2 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

im just discussing the facts of what we dealt with... neither of us in our 30+yrs on earth were that sick before from a "flu". like i said, i recovered and almost had no memory of it, aside from being freezingly cold and dripping sweat and not moving for 2 days.

wife has an uncontrollable cough 24/7, and almost went a full 10 days without sleep and breathing problems.

i hope it wasnt, but stories are starting to take shape dating back to early november... this was late november.

Right time, wrong continent

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5 minutes ago, Angry Beavers said:

source?

started googling myself, and this came up from the epoche times, which quotes numbers directly from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)

cell usage

but of a fluff piece overall, but 21millions is a MASSIVE difference. odd. but could be many things, i suppose

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6 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

im just discussing the facts of what we dealt with... neither of us in our 30+yrs on earth were that sick before from a "flu". like i said, i recovered and almost had no memory of it, aside from being freezingly cold and dripping sweat and not moving for 2 days.

wife has an uncontrollable cough 24/7, and almost went a full 10 days without sleep and breathing problems.

i hope it wasnt, but stories are starting to take shape dating back to early november... this was late november.

No way you had it in late November 

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

No way you had it in late November 

if we had this discussion just a week ago, id be 100% on board with you.

but right now im basically paranoid and cant rule it out (while still not fully buying into it... tho my wife seems a lot more certain)

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on a somewhat cool note, a local distillery donated boxes of disinfectant to our office today. pretty rad to see the community helping out.

they're sending boxes to all front line / govt workers... a few breweries and other largescale distilleries doing it as well around here.

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5 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

if we had this discussion just a week ago, id be 100% on board with you.

but right now im basically paranoid and cant rule it out (while still not fully buying into it... tho my wife seems a lot more certain)

Something with similarities to Covid19 was going around the.   I was sick for about 20 days starting at the end of November with flu like symptoms.  The weird thing though was I had lots of trouble breathing - felt like I couldn’t get enough air for a few days. 

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26 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

soooooooooooooo, you know how I was telling you that story 2 days ago of my wife being COVID-ly ill during our trip back to france in November, and me getting it shortly thereafter?

we were watching BFM TV (channel from france) and they ran a story of French and Italian doctors as early as November diagnosing several cases of flu/pneumonia like symptoms, that werent actually flu/pneumonia and they didn't know what it was.

EXACTLY what the doctor there told my wife.... 

I'm convinced now. We had it. THis thing has been going around for MONTHS.

eta: yes, I know im being paranoid, but jesu almighty

Send me a blood sample. I want to mine some antibodies.

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7 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

What's so funny about my friend's mom being admitted to the hospital and being tested for covid? 

So sorry. I meant to click on the sad emoji. 

Funny, I just sent a PM to another poster had obviously made the same error reacting to a different tragic post, yesterday. 

He was as embarrassed as I am now.

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Just now, cosjobs said:

So sorry. I meant to click on the sad emoji. 

Funny, I just sent a PM to another poster had obviously made the same error reacting to a different tragic post, yesterday. 

He was as embarrassed as I am now.

Ok, no prob. You didn't strike me as a bucsah or whatever his handle is.

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1 hour ago, gianmarco said:

You're clearly not the only one. 

All I can tell you is this.  When going in to evaluate someone that has actual respiratory illness (cough/fever) and possible/suspected COVID, I'm not wearing an N95 mask.  That's in an enclosed space with likely infection and active coughing and right next to them (< 6 ft).  Simple surgical mask and eye protection along with gown and gloves.  And it's not due to lack of N95 where I am as I have it available. 

And it's certainly not because I'm taking COVID lightly.  If medical providers aren't even using N95 masks during actual interactions with this disease, then not sure how else you'd be convinced that you just don't need it walking down the aisle of a grocery store, even if someone just sneezed or coughed near you (i.e. > 6 ft away).  If you're that concerned about someone sneezing near you, just walk in the other direction for a few minutes (even though it's not necessary). 

I didn't know you were on the front lines. Thank you for your service. Who's got the list of FBG docs, nurses, policeman, firefighters, EMTs and other first responders? We all owe you a huge debt of gratitude. Thank you all. You are amazing. Be safe.

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50 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

soooooooooooooo, you know how I was telling you that story 2 days ago of my wife being COVID-ly ill during our trip back to france in November, and me getting it shortly thereafter?

we were watching BFM TV (channel from france) and they ran a story of French and Italian doctors as early as November diagnosing several cases of flu/pneumonia like symptoms, that werent actually flu/pneumonia and they didn't know what it was.

EXACTLY what the doctor there told my wife.... 

I'm convinced now. We had it. THis thing has been going around for MONTHS.

eta: yes, I know im being paranoid, but jesu almighty

Pic of your antibodies or it didn't happen.

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1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:

It is a ton of egg on their faces. Even now.

IMO any medical professional out there telling people they don't need a mask and should donate it is acting poorly. It is the crappiest way you can go about this issue. 

There is a huge difference between asking for something and misleading somebody to get it regardless if you need it more. 

One thing I thought of recently upon learning how hospitals/medical are burning through PPE. Estimated to use 3 billion, maybe more. That small donation of masks from a basement is almost nothing. The odds of getting in a car accident have to be higher than the odds that the small lot of masks would prevent a case of covid. Maybe if you had a hundred of them it pushes it over the threshold, but one box? Yeah, wear it yourself.

 

I agree the mask stuff was handled terribly. But given the rampant shortages and PPE hoarding we've seen, even in the face of some medical professionals downplaying their importance, how do you think they should've handled it?

What would've happened if the CDC/WHO etc. publicly advocated masks for everyone early on in the pandemic?

Ideally, our pandemic preparedness would have anticipated the PPE need proactively and had stockpiles available to healthcare workers. But how do you ensure there are enough for the other 300+ million people? If you can't have enough sitting around due to degradation, etc., how do you allocate a limited resource?

Related note: my hospital has masks for a few weeks, but N95s are reserved for the highest risk providers. If you guys are concerned for exposure under your day-to-day circumstances, how would you feel working face-to-face with people known to be infected, relegated to wearing less than optimal PPE? 

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1 hour ago, msommer said:

I don't know. This report is interesting. It may be pure poppycock. It may be heartbreakingly true. We may never know.
In addition we now have lots of data from places whose numbers are reported transparently so we need not look to places like China, Iran or Turkey for answers.

Hard to say, but in a county the size of China, a lot of people die everyday anyway.

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51 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

if we had this discussion just a week ago, id be 100% on board with you.

but right now im basically paranoid and cant rule it out (while still not fully buying into it... tho my wife seems a lot more certain)

Well dont read any of the detailed accounts from the beginning from italian doctors. You will be even more convinced you had it. 

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52 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

started googling myself, and this came up from the epoche times, which quotes numbers directly from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)

cell usage

but of a fluff piece overall, but 21millions is a MASSIVE difference. odd. but could be many things, i suppose

That works out to about 1.5%.  If the cell phone companies were closed for 2-3 months, that would explain a portion of it.

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9 hours ago, ChiefD said:

Does HIPAA limit you to generalities though? Like if a patient tests positive, can the government post things like:

- Patient was in Wal Mart on 95th street on March 20th

- Patient stopped at Gas Station on 90th street on same day

- Patient lives in Scott County

 

Patient has 57 shovels.

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7 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

We hit 100,000 cases just 4 days ago in the US on 3/27 (with almost 1,700 dead)

Looking likely to top 200,000 today and 4,000 dead. 

:(

Terrible. I truly wonder what the level of infection really is. At least 10 times that amount? Given the lack of testing availability and how we've heard alot of cases are mild or asymptomatic.

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1 hour ago, Soulfly3 said:

if we had this discussion just a week ago, id be 100% on board with you.

but right now im basically paranoid and cant rule it out (while still not fully buying into it... tho my wife seems a lot more certain)

Covid 18.  Tell your wife she had that.  

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A couple comments on the topics of the day...

Its unlikely that CV was widespread in November. Many may have had symptoms like what’s being described but there’s major flaws in it being CV. First where are the unexplained pneumonia deaths? China alerted WHO when they had a cluster of like 5 deaths from unexplained pneumonia. If it was in other countries in November, there would have been other deaths.

Second, if it was elsewhere in November, what caused it to go dormant in these countries for a few months? As contagious as it is, there’s little chance it would have died off and not spread aggressively especially without the social distancing we’re doing now. Third, researchers don’t believe the it mutates and changes like other viruses. For this to be true, you’d have to assume that a less powerful version of it was around and then it mutated to what it is now. If that’s the case, we’re more screwed than we thought.

On China, they undoubtedly have downplayed and lied about their numbers. I think a good rule of thumb would be to assume that everything is several multiples worse than what’s being publicly portrayed. Their government will hide something until they can’t. When they recently re-closed the cinemas, that’s likely a sign that it’s gotten bad enough that they can’t continue to make their claims of beating it.

With that being said, the major sins of the Chinese government doesn’t clear everyone else from being accountable for their actions. 

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For those who are still following this model. We're still tracking well ahead of it. 

Fatalities as of Today:
Projected: 3121
Today: 3827 so far 

Keeping that in mind (we are tracking AHEAD of the model), the model projects these US fatality totals at certain dates in the near future: 

This Friday (4/3): 5733
This coming Monday (4/6): 10,530
Next Friday (4/10): 23,686
The following Friday (4/17): About 100,000 dead 

It goes without saying but the rapid escalation in fatalities could possibly be mitigated by either:
1) Successful reduction in R0 due to lockdown (Have we done enough?)
2) Expanding ER/Vent capacity (are we capable?)
3) Pharma Advances (Hydrochloroquine? Lironlimlab? Other?)

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if this one got posted, I missed it. Does not give the warm and fuzzies.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221

Quote

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

 

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The Visual Capitalist is a great site in general and this entry in particular is relevant for this thread.

LINK

The 7 Best COVID-19 Resources We’ve Discovered So Far

1. How Coronaviruses Work
2. The History of Pandemics
3. Coronavirus Simulator: Limiting the Exponential Spread
4. Real-time COVID-19 Map
5. Which Countries are “Flattening the Curve”?
6. Tracking the Coronavirus: The Latest Figures
7. COVID-19 Stats and Research

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7 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

60 minutes Australia story about whistleblowers in China and how if they hadn't been silenced it could have stopped the global spread...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEQcvcyzQGE

Posted without comment. People can judge for themselves, including those who might claim the 60 minutes organization is "right wing" or "conspiratorial".

Maybe I'll do my best squistion impersonation and start listing off some select quotes from the piece.

keep it in the psf take that to the bank brohan 

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1 hour ago, msommer said:

Hey, patient zero took time out from eating undercooked bats and wrestling pangolins to travel to Paris to cough on soulfly3. Doubter!

I've taken late night flights to Wuhan for Mushi Pork with Soulfly and Josh Gordon.  Something about hanging with those guys gives me insatiable munchies.

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Just now, Keerock said:
4 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I can't believe we're still doing the "I had this in November" thing.  No you didn't.  For hell's sake, people.

I had it in 1986.

Come to think of it, it might have just been a hangover.

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Bay Area couple mystery. They were quarantined on the cruise ship in Oakland for a week. Husband tested positive but had no symptoms. Wife tested negative. They donated blood to see if how this happened may give clues for a vaccine.

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