Yeah.
My rough draft, subject to quite a bit of change:
1. Dobbins--Assuming he is a good to decent talent, I think he slides right into a RB8-RB12 PPR status in '21, and maybe '20. By the end of '20, he could be a solid flex, if not RB2. I wouldn't bet on it, but Ingram going to a 1B at age 30 seems very possible to me. Ingram is not a transcendent talent. He's a solid pro. Any decent RB with Lamar should be able to average close to 5 YPC, and chunk plays are common with this offense.
2. CEH--Over Taylor because of the high floor. I heard a lot when people were over-drafting the other KC RBs that you just want a piece of this offense. I still think that's a good strategy, but if everyone gets over-drafted, it's not worth it. There are a lot of mouths to feed, and he does not have homerun speed. I think he is more dynamic than backs they have, which improves the overall offense, but Kelce, Hill, Mecole, Watkins are all gonna have their looks. A red flag to me is no is talking about his skill as a runner, just what a great fit he is.
I don't think Reid is trying to make his offense LESS predictable by feeding a RB. The main reason I have him above Taylor is I don't trust the Colts QB/offense/management as much as Chiefs.
3. Jonathan Taylor--Behind Helaire because this is 2020, not 1999. If you tell me he's gonna get 5 targets, cool. I'm not sure he does. Behind Dobbins because the next 4 years (the only ones that matter for RB) are cloudy to me. Good offensive line? Great. What's the QB situation? Is this one of the best offenses in the AFC? People have been blowing kisses to
since the Nelson/Leonard draft, but I wonder about the trend of this team. Rivers played
terribly last year; if teams can stack the box, and if Taylor isn't getting a lot of targets, I see problems, especially if they aren't in a positive game script. The fact that Taylor has passing game questions.....I mean, top 3 back with passing game questions, that's not good. His profile suggests he could be a
freak. Draft capital suggests teams do NOT think he's a generational talent.
4. D'Andre Swift--Can't be mad at 1.04. Just be the Ravens, and let the draft come to you. All-around back, and this is an easy call to me, because my opinion of Kerryon (not great)+Swift draft capital bodes well for his usage. I was never a Kerryon fan, and I like Swift a lot, so just a matter of time, as far as I'm concerned. Swift might have my favorite style/look of all the backs, in terms of what good fantasy producers look like to me. Good in passing game, big enough for goalline, good wiggle., low to the ground. I don't think he's Chubb type special, but I like his landing spot for touches. Some will disagree because of Kerryon, which is understandable.
5. Cam Akers--The top 4 guys played behind, I THINK, top 15 rushing O-lines. Akers played behind one of the worst. What a huge difference that is. They told us all we need to know about Henderson with this pick. Rams had holes to fill, so taking him in the 2nd round says they expect him to impact the team. Rams love running on the goalline, I don't see as much vulturing as Dobbins, Helaire, and Swift. Love his passing game % at FSU (11% I think), I wish we had a better handle on what direction the Rams are headed.
6. Anthony McFarland--YEP! More talented than Vaughn, I'm going talent over situation. I love McFarland's highlights. Love his speed, he looks a lot faster in game than Vaughn to me, and his path to a lot of work is simply a James Connor injury, which is pretty possible. I'm not making a Ronald Jones rookie draft mistake by taking a guy from the same backfield. Waay too many mouths to feed in TB, and I don't know if he will ever be anything more than a committee guy. I'll trade down with a guy who wants Vaughn, and go after McFarland in the early 2nd round. Everyone thinks Connor is gone after this year, I like his outlook.
