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Actual Deaths From Covid-19 vs Reported Deaths (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
I have not seen Democratic Data or Republican Data. If that exists, I would be interested in knowing about it. So when someone says both sides are miscounting - I am genuinely curious to see the data (I am a data guy). If Pelosi is using one set of numbers, and Trump is using a different set - I would want to see each set of data and understand where it comes from.
As I stated above - I don't think there is an accurate count - but not for any nefarious reasons. We don't have a federal response here, so we get 50 different ways to do things. Each state reports their numbers differently, and we, of course, are limited by the testing we are doing, and have done in the past.
We don't track flu deaths because it is too granular, and this falls into a similar category. In the end, the best estimates will come not from"reported" deaths, but from comparisons to previous years.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
dgreen
Footballguy
I don't think anyone has seen "Democratic Data" or "Republican Data" and I don't think anyone has claimed to see that. I clearly did a poor job communicating that I think the "sides" he was referring to are the sides on either side of the accurate number. There's the "side" that's over the accurate number and there's the "side" that's below the accurate number. Think of "sides" as "directions" and "distance" from the true number and not as two ideological foes. As you say, we have 50 different ways to do things. Some of those ways could over count and some could under count: those are the "sides".
I have not seen Democratic Data or Republican Data. If that exists, I would be interested in knowing about it. So when someone says both sides are miscounting - I am genuinely curious to see the data (I am a data guy). If Pelosi is using one set of numbers, and Trump is using a different set - I would want to see each set of data and understand where it comes from.
As I stated above - I don't think there is an accurate count - but not for any nefarious reasons. We don't have a federal response here, so we get 50 different ways to do things. Each state reports their numbers differently, and we, of course, are limited by the testing we are doing, and have done in the past.
We don't track flu deaths because it is too granular, and this falls into a similar category. In the end, the best estimates will come not from"reported" deaths, but from comparisons to previous years.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
I'd be interested to know what you think the 32,000 Americans (over normal, since 1/1/20) that aren't in the official Covid tally died of.
I mean, since the Covid fatality numbers are approximately correct, per you.
I suspect you're right. And I was mostly just musing on how that data gets compiled. One of my biggest pet peeves is when professional researchers release a finding and randos think they can instantly debunk it by pointing out some really obvious factor that any halfway decent statistician would know how to control for (remember that "unskewed polls" doofus back in 2012?)
I have no idea who does the calculations for annual flu deaths, but I would imagine that it's someone's job to get that stuff right, and it's not just some amateur doodling on the back of an envelope. So they're probably pretty good at controlling for lots of exogenous factors. That's not to say they're infallible, just that they're presumably not making the really obvious mistakes that a bunch of dudes in a magic football forum could instantly spot.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Hard to say with any accuracy how far the numbers are off, but I'd imagine they're over-reported at least a little given the circumstances.
What I do know is the number of people who've had COVID-19 is unimaginably under-reported. So much so that its mortality rate is no doubt blown WAY out of proportion.
What I do know is the number of people who've had COVID-19 is unimaginably under-reported. So much so that its mortality rate is no doubt blown WAY out of proportion.
So - over-reported on deaths, and under-reported on infections?
Curious combination.
To what do you attribute all the extra deaths in March and April, if not covid19?
Football Jones
Footballguy
Not at all. I'm guessing deaths are slightly over-reported due to the circumstances.
The one thing that is irrefutable is cases being under-reported. To not think that, you have to somehow believe everyone has been tested (which we know isn't the case).
This virus is no doubt MUCH less deadly than the given mortality rate. It's not like it's rocket science.
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RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
You are guessing wrong. And guessing isn't even necessary.
Excess Deaths Associated with Covid-19
To summarize: As of a few weeks ago when the official US death count was about 39,000, there were still 33,000 deaths above normal YTD that had not been counted as Covid-related.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Let's say the reported death number is accurate or within an acceptable range. Ok, but my point stands.
COVID-19 isn't nearly the killer the reported mortality rate would suggest. It CAN'T be (due to the extremely low percentage of people who've been tested).
It is what it is (& it's a good thing).
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RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
We're so far from really knowing a true mortality rate on it that I don't really think it is worth worrying about right now. Whether it is the underlying mortality rate or the prevalence/communicability, it is killing more people, faster than anything we have seen in a long time.
The Commish
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm not suggesting to underestimate it. You can be one of the very, very few people (percentage-wise) for who this virus can be deadly, but the true mortality rate will be much lower than reported (obviously).
Just looking at the bright side.
dkp993
Footballguy
I have no clue, and neither do you. That’s my point, there are to many variables and the data points are not complete or accurate. So with that being said MY OPINION (as the op asks for) is that the reported number is likely the most accurate of the 3 opinions. That’s not yours. Cool.
Any other ways I can answer the same question for you?
If you’re simply taking the number of Covid deaths and dividing it by the number of confirmed positives, then you would certainly get a fatality rate that is too high. AFAIK, no one is reporting that number. In fact, I don’t think I’ve even seen it calculated.
I’m not saying this is true of you, but I’ve encountered a number of people, including one particularly annoying Facebook friend, who seem very invested in “proving” that the fatality rate is way lower than current estimates.
My opinion is that if there is a high level of uncertainty around the total number of deaths, and an even higher level of uncertainty around the number of infections, then it is pretty much impossible to predict what the fatality rate is with any degree of confidence.
And if we are that unsure, it’s also pointless to argue over the public health implications of the number. My FB friend is insistent that the rate is below 0.1%. But if he’s wrong and it’s 0.5%, the policies he’s pushing could be disastrous.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Oh, I have a very well developed idea of what is going on.
It's not hard. It's obvious. Pretending it isn't obvious is not clever.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Every death that is registered is legit, imo. A bunch that weren’t tested before death don’t count. This is pretty simple and most with a strong grasp of data should see it the same way.
The answer to this poll is obvious, imo.
The answer to this poll is obvious, imo.
dkp993
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm really not trying to prove anything. The actual mortality rate will never be known, but it's much less than whatever is/will be reported.
And my point stands even if there wasn't a reported mortality rate. An untold number of people have gotten the virus & fully recovered (& weren't tested).
The hospitalization & mortality rate seems to be slowing, which would make sense as the more compromised people would tend to get it first. Let's just hope the trend continues & we can open this country back up as soon as possible.
Just trying to be conscientious, but hopeful.
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Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
Since I missed the 19th anniversary here on Friday (was there a party) I'll be respectful of the owner and decline to go off further on this tangent.
So to head back to the topic at hand. Where the hand counts are probably close to accurate for what they are with errors both ways, ultimately these hand counts are the "back of the napkin" calculations. The real calculations will come later with analysis similar to what you have doodled out.
And unless this time is really different they will be significantly higher. Absent some grand conspiracy to cover up some other source of deaths unique to this year the numbers have to be too low.
Insomniac
Footballguy
The only alternate explanation for the "extra" deaths I can think of is some people are dying from avoiding needed medical care because they want to avoid hospitals or other medical facilities. It seems unlikely all of the extra deaths would be due to that.
To discuss this there some data/facts everyone accepts. ( if these statements are false I'd like to look the links saying so)
1. There are additional deaths this year compared to previous years.
2. The deaths attributed to covid-19 are fewer than the additional deaths by a statistically signigicant amount.
What's the case for the additional deaths that doesn't include higher than reported covid deaths?
Can someone explain to me the theory that we're overcounting Covid deaths? Leaving aside the inchoate, implausible conspiracy theories, the one I keep hearing is that people who were already dying of something else shouldn't get counted just because they happened to test positive. But that doesn't make sense to me. If a terminal cancer patient drives off a bridge on her way home from the hospital, that's counted as an automobile death, not cancer.
So what is the logic? What am I missing?
So what is the logic? What am I missing?
Stealthycat
Footballguy
is there ANY motivation at ANY level to call a death covid19 when it might actually be a heart attack, old age, pneumonia, cancer etc ?
if there is - be it state of federal money, political motivations to smear Trump, simply not wanting to admit being wrong on numbers ... then yes, its very very possible the numbers are lower or even WAY lower
if there is - be it state of federal money, political motivations to smear Trump, simply not wanting to admit being wrong on numbers ... then yes, its very very possible the numbers are lower or even WAY lower
msudaisy26
Footballguy
You can say the exact same thing the other way. In that case the numbers could be higher or even way higher.
supermike80
Footballguy
And I got shamed for my original reply to these guys. Now maybe you all can see why
Gross
Its more likely that the opposite is true. No Governor or President wants to have a high death count. ITs why we are not testing. If you have your head in the sand... you cannot know the real truth.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I don’t get this discussion, I mean generally, nationally. It’s like Joe’s poll earlier on if coronavirus was “serious”. It was already serious, the world and national health authorities had already declared it such.
This is only an issue because there’s insufficient testing. Because there’s insufficient testing there’s debate about the spread and mortality rate. Because of that people are unsure if they should engage in commerce or go to work. Because of that the economy is held up.
This is only an issue because there’s insufficient testing. Because there’s insufficient testing there’s debate about the spread and mortality rate. Because of that people are unsure if they should engage in commerce or go to work. Because of that the economy is held up.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Odd that the same people arguing "China is lying; they have way more deaths than they say" are also arguing "US states are lying; they have way fewer deaths than they say".
IMO, anyone arguing that the COVID-related deaths are undercounted needs to credibly explain the excess year-over-year deaths in 2020 compared to previous years. I've not seen anyone attempt that yet.
IMO, anyone arguing that the COVID-related deaths are undercounted needs to credibly explain the excess year-over-year deaths in 2020 compared to previous years. I've not seen anyone attempt that yet.
shader
Footballguy
You can’t leave the conspiracy theories behind, because that’s the reason people think they are overcounting deaths. A third of the country are full-blown conspiracy theorists. That’s just the reality
I know, but I was trying to engage with the actual argument. It's not just that the conspiracy theories are wrong, though they almost certainly are, it's that they all seem to be Underpants Gnome-level incoherent:
- Democrats hate Trump
- ?????
- OVERCOUNT!
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Hmmm conspiracy theories you say? More labeling from the guy behind these gems...
- It's impossible that any place in the US had cases in December and early January (Whoops)
- I have no reason not to believe China's numbers (Whoops)
- There can't be very many asymptomatic cases here because China and South Korea's didn't have many (Whoops)
Speaking of "conspiracies" - what should others call your latest cries of panic for the coming "second wave"? This despite no other country in the world having a massive second wave to date. Flare ups that were addressed quickly, sure. But nothing even remotely resembling what countries went through during their first wave. It would be hard to look at your track record and not notice how you predict the worst possible result for every scenario. Thankfully for all of us, you've been very consistently inaccurate in your fortune telling.
Also, maybe it's time to drop the labels.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
ok so you're saying that Trump and Fed Govt would cover up covid-19 deaths to make themselves look better, save face ?
no conspiracy theory there huh ?
I definitely agree with you on "deal with the problem at hand and go back for accuracy later". I also think that knowing the exact death total right now is not that important. Whether we've lost 60K or 100K or 1M in the first four months of the year, it's still one of the greatest tragedies this country has ever faced. In the long run, the total number of deaths does matter a great deal, but there will be time to get it right using the best available statistical methods. Right now the focus should be on preventing any more from happening.
OK, this is what I was getting at in my earlier post. I get how it's muddled on the "undercounting" end. The theory is that a) lots of people are dying without being tested or even going to a hospital, so they might not get counted as a Covid death. Plus, looking at total deaths over a comparable time period indicates that there are a number of unaccounted for deaths that is not explained by the formal Covid death count. You can agree or disagree with those theories, but they are coherent, testable hypotheses.
What is the comparable muddling on the overcounting end? I genuinely don't understand what the logic is behind it, and I'm hoping someone can explain it to me.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Hospitals are losing billions of dollars from the shutdowns -- people are afraid to go to the ER, nurses are afraid to work, lucrative elective surgeries are being postponed or canceled, etc. If they could mask all the COVID deaths, then they could return to business as usual and start raking in the money again.
/conspiraciesgobothways
Obviously there are way more deaths from COVID than officially reported. The Washington Post did a nice job explaining why: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/02/theres-more-accurate-way-compare-coronavirus-deaths-flu/
There can be little doubt COVID is directly responsible for more deaths than the official numbers. Perhaps the more interesting question is the number of deaths it will be indirectly responsible for, which we will never know. There has been some talk about being who would normally seek care being afraid and staying home. That is definitely happening, and contributing to people being sicker when they go to the hospital.
The part I haven't heard much about is that it is way harder to care for patients in the time of COVID than normal times. I feel pretty confident that medical errors, missed diagnoses, etc. are higher than baseline right now. Though that is so difficult to quantify that we will probably never actually know to what extent or how much it affected outcomes.
There can be little doubt COVID is directly responsible for more deaths than the official numbers. Perhaps the more interesting question is the number of deaths it will be indirectly responsible for, which we will never know. There has been some talk about being who would normally seek care being afraid and staying home. That is definitely happening, and contributing to people being sicker when they go to the hospital.
The part I haven't heard much about is that it is way harder to care for patients in the time of COVID than normal times. I feel pretty confident that medical errors, missed diagnoses, etc. are higher than baseline right now. Though that is so difficult to quantify that we will probably never actually know to what extent or how much it affected outcomes.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
You were "shamed" because you are denying objective facts and acting like you are being bullied when people point it out.
That's shameful behavior.
supermike80
Footballguy
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