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***OFFICIAL CYDY/Leronlimab Thread***


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23 minutes ago, The Blue Baron said:

After a night of reflection, I am still on the sidelines; however, I hope the FDA shows compassion in guiding CytoDyn on the best path forward.  The CEO needs to stay off the Kool Beens and focus on the tasks at hand.  From the information available, certainly appears more patients will need to be enrolled in critical.  The age factor is intriguing but I’m not even sure if this is legal?  Could you advise a patient, “I’m sorry you’re over 65, you can’t enroll in our trial?”  Then you also have to work in factors of overall health.  All because you’re over 65 doesn’t mean, you may not be in better health than someone under 65.  I don’t even know if they could have designed the original trial to maintain the balance for age? 

 

In any case, if they believe LL can help, they should publish all the mortality in % and numbers everyone can understand, increase trial sites, and wrap this up in a few months.  If it stretches on until the end of the year or early next year, it will likely be a case of too little, too late.  I wonder how long the trial would have taken to fill up if they imposed age restrictions?  If anything, this proves the company is too small without the experience to moves things forward.  I’m watching from the stands.  The 2nd PR, the vague 1st PR, the appearance on the Kool Beens, and, everything yet to pass is the equivalent of watching Fran Tarkenton in a mad scramble trying to find the time and space to make one last gasp Hail Mary pass with no time left on the clock.

 

·        If Pfizer CEO, Albert Bourla, made an appearance on the Kool Beans pitching his product, his board would likely demand his resignation the next morning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CwsfdY5o08

 

 

Extremely true, especially your last sentence about the kool beans part. Just flat out embarrassing. 

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I wonder if NP gets in trouble for his pumping and 3 digit comments.  It would be a tough pill to swallow if you were a new investor looking at a company that just finished its phase 3 trial and the CEO is talking like this after viewing the data.

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18 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

How low will you go before deciding to hold on?  If it gaps down to 1.80, would you sell?  

Jmo but I would never sell at those levels. May as well hold for the year, see if it gets better and if not, take the tax write off in December. Just the way I am going to approach it, unless you have gains to lock in there is no reason to sell now. 

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7 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

I wonder if NP gets in trouble for his pumping and 3 digit comments.  It would be a tough pill to swallow if you were a new investor looking at a company that just finished its phase 3 trial and the CEO is talking like this after viewing the data.

He should be in prison for that.  

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1 hour ago, Chaz McNulty said:

I wonder if NP gets in trouble for his pumping and 3 digit comments.  It would be a tough pill to swallow if you were a new investor looking at a company that just finished its phase 3 trial and the CEO is talking like this after viewing the data.

If there was any regulatory body that was actually worth a damn then I don't see how he wouldn't be in jail for like 15 different things.

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Jmo but I would never sell at those levels. May as well hold for the year, see if it gets better and if not, take the tax write off in December. Just the way I am going to approach it, unless you have gains to lock in there is no reason to sell now. 

I’ve been thinking that $3.25 or thereabouts is my number. I’m selling a majority of my shares above and holding below. And I’m a buyer under $1.50, or so. 

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15 minutes ago, pecorino said:

I’ve been thinking that $3.25 or thereabouts is my number. I’m selling a majority of my shares above and holding below. And I’m a buyer under $1.50, or so. 

Oh yea I’d be gone at that price. No doubt. 

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So i assume this thing is going to gap down at the open?  Or are there enough buyers convinced of the 24% info that it will see a slight uptick at the bell?  The mood here suggests the former; on other boards the latter.

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21 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

So i assume this thing is going to gap down at the open?  Or are there enough buyers convinced of the 24% info that it will see a slight uptick at the bell?  The mood here suggests the former; on other boards the latter.

This goes down for sure.  I think the over/under is around $2.40.

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2 minutes ago, HaFo SaFo said:

Yeah about where I was thinking too. Not sure if it'll open right at $2.50 but it should hit that in the first half hour at least. Maybe because that's pretty much right at my "don't know which move to make" amount. 

That's exactly what I was thinking.

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My friend wrote the following:

Quote

To All:
I'm sure all of you believe me when I tell you this has been a busy and confusing weekend re Cytodyn.

To begin, I was 100% correct in my evaluation of the first press released Fri night.

The purpose of this memo is to evaluate the second press release combine them and present what in my opinion will happen during the next 60 days.

Leronlimab ( herein called DRUG)  works on critically ill Covid patients. No "if's buts, or maybe's" it works!!!!! 

1) Within the next few days the FDA and Cytodyn will agree on a protocol to administer the drug to 140 criticall patients suffering from Covid. The end point ( result that the test will determine) will be based on the following

Discharge alive: In addition, patients who received leronlimab demonstrated an improved probability of "discharged alive" at Day 28 .

Based on the test just completed the drug was better than the placebo by 166%

 

This new test will be successful. This new test results on the critically ill will be completed within a month. Results of the new test will be reported to us soon after.If all goes well we will know that we either will have an approved drug or a EUA approval within 6-8 weeks at best.

 

This disease is not going away!. The need for a powerful drug that will save lives will be around for many years.

The % of population that will refuse the drug will be over 10%. Magnify that worldwide, and you have a significant population that will need this drug. 6-8 weeks is a miniscule time to wait at this point in the development of this living saving drug.

 

Now you ask yourself the question Why doesn't the FDA approved this drug immediately to save lives?

The short answer- they still might give the drug "conditional approval" in the very near future.

They should!!! but don't count on it! why not?

 

Trail just completed was a trial for critical and ssevere patients 

1) SEVERE IS NOT SYNONYMOUS WITH SERIOUS IN THE MEDICAL FIELD. IT IS MUCH LESS SERIOUS THAN CRITICAL. PLEASE KEEP THAT IN MIND.

 

Rather than going into complex reasoning it is sufficient to say the second press release wanted us to understand that under certain circumstances if we adjust age issues  the drug was successful even for those with severe conditions.

The FDA does not do that. In their mind the test was for Critical and Severe and when you combine them the total score for the drug did not pass their testing requirements .

 

Here are the critical points

) The drug is in a class all by itself. There is nothing close to it to save lives for critically ill patients.

2) The drug will be approved for critical patients sooner rather than later

3)The drug will be in great demand for many years to come.

 

I have been an investor for too many years. :)

I know the "Ups and down's" of a stock especially in the bio tech field.

I have been an investor in this company for close to 8 years. Am I tired of management and their inability to get this wonder drug across the "finish line" you bet I am.

 

This set back is nothing unusual,  happens  all the time in the bio tech field. In fact we are now "ZERO IN"on the exact application that will allow us to be very successful.

 

Cancer Nash HIV and a host of other promising applications are still close to happening with this drug

 

Conclusion  --In my opinion not sure what direction the stock will take tomorrow morning. Many people think the stock will be much lower. It is truly irrelevant as to your investment in Cytodyn if there is a lower price. For all the reasons I mentioned above, Monday is not the time to sell shares .  Only my opinion

 

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7 hours ago, Capella said:

I would guess tomorrow AM would be the worst time to sell in the next few weeks. 

Been thinking the same thing.   It also could deteriorate further because I have no idea if the HIV BLA is something that they are even close to or what the real issue is there.

I'm definitely counting the possibility that they may never get a drug to market.

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3 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

Been thinking the same thing.   It also could deteriorate further because I have no idea if the HIV BLA is something that they are even close to or what the real issue is there.

I'm definitely counting the possibility that they may never get a drug to market.

They still have a carrot.  Nothing is clear.  I don't see the stock below 3, but what do I know.

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3 minutes ago, Capella said:

Chet > thanks for sharing. Any chance at all for a partnership/buyout? I would think typically there would be, but for Nader that is akin to admitting defeat. 

He'd be really smart to do a partnership but I just don't think he's smart enough to realize that.  He's an arrogant narcissist.

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7 minutes ago, chet said:

He'd be really smart to do a partnership but I just don't think he's smart enough to realize that.  He's an arrogant narcissist.

Yup. 
 

Let’s say best case this thing does play out like the email - what’s the share price looking like? Covid is going to be significantly diminished in 2 months and I can’t imagine market sentiment is going to be jumping at the prospect of a covid stock. 
 

Not saying it couldn’t go to 10-20 there but the idea of this thing ever being a rocket ship seems to be long gone. Imo.   

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24 minutes ago, chet said:

He'd be really smart to do a partnership but I just don't think he's smart enough to realize that.  He's an arrogant narcissist.

At this point, I've got no faith in the guy.  It's not that they missed the endpoint either, but give a little transparency please.  We just went through a dog and pony show for the last six weeks, where there was nothing behind the curtain.

I'm trying not to look at it too emotionally and make a rational decision but if I can't trust the guy at all, it seems stupid for me to have any money tied into it any longer.  Can cut the loss here and not have to think about it any longer.

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3 hours ago, unckeyherb said:

So i assume this thing is going to gap down at the open?  Or are there enough buyers convinced of the 24% info that it will see a slight uptick at the bell?  The mood here suggests the former; on other boards the latter.

I’d expect a gap down to the $3 range. Hope I’m being overly pessimistic. 

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29 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

At this point, I've got no faith in the guy.  It's not that they missed the endpoint either, but give a little transparency please.  We just went through a dog and pony show for the last six weeks, where there was nothing behind the curtain.

I'm trying not to look at it too emotionally and make a rational decision but if I can't trust the guy at all, it seems stupid for me to have any money tied into it any longer.  Can cut the loss here and not have to think about it any longer.

If you don't want to look emotionally, there is only one thing that should matter.  Are they going to be able to sell the drug or not.

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10 minutes ago, IC FBGCav said:

  Are they going to be able to sell the drug or not.

At this point, I lean no.  Has Nader given any indication that HIV is close.  You know he would have by now if he had good news to share.

Covid is a big crapshoot and it's at least 4-6 months away.

 

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Chet > thanks for sharing. Any chance at all for a partnership/buyout? I would think typically there would be, but for Nader that is akin to admitting defeat. 

In a call last August or September Nader admitted that the price structure of the Vyera licensing deal for HIV in the US essentially killed any chance for a partnership on other indications. There is a price floor in the Vyera contract which extends to any indication, I believe it's somewhere around $40K - $60K annually per patient, that bigger pharma balked at. So the Vyera deal, which sounded kind of decent when it was signed, has been a hindrance. There has been talk of licensing outside the US but nothing ever came of it.

And yeah, obviously Nader sees himself as a bigtimer. He probably could have made a deal with a larger pharma for HIV but he went with the rinky dink, formerly run by Martin Shkreli, currently getting sued by everybody Vyera because Cytodyn will keep a much bigger slice of the pie if they ever have HIV revenue than a bigger pharma would take. But as a tradeoff, he got essentially nothing up front where a bigger pharma would have made sure Cytodyn was well capitalized to go for HIV approval. 

Leronlimab and Nader are one and the same and he's made sure nobody is in a position to do anything about it. The Board never has. Past shareholders votes on contentious issues have always gone Nader's way so I'm not sure even a decent buyout offer would have the votes to pass. 

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9 hours ago, Capella said:

Jmo but I would never sell at those levels. May as well hold for the year, see if it gets better and if not, take the tax write off in December. Just the way I am going to approach it, unless you have gains to lock in there is no reason to sell now. 

It's going to zero within a year.  Sell and toss the money that's left in PLTR, IPOE, or UUUU.

8 hours ago, pecorino said:

I’ve been thinking that $3.25 or thereabouts is my number. I’m selling a majority of my shares above and holding below. And I’m a buyer under $1.50, or so. 

Buying for a swing trade?

2 hours ago, pecorino said:

I’d expect a gap down to the $3 range. Hope I’m being overly pessimistic. 

I'd call that optimistic.

2 hours ago, jamny said:

Gap up and I'm selling.

I expect a gap down with a bounce to almost even, where I'll be selling.

Nope.  it will bounce back.  Probably best to sell at the open and then buy back lower if you want to hold it.

21 minutes ago, Capella said:

It ain’t goin to 1.50, come on. I’d be buying at that price. 

They bought a #### pile of LL and are locked in a contract to purchase more.  The only way they stay afloat is if they further dilute.  This is either going to be a 7 cent stock with 5 billion shares outstanding or bankrupt.  CYDY is currently a 2.5 billion dollar market cap stock.  That's the same market cap as Fulgent which had 33 million in sales last year.

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3 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

It's going to zero within a year.  Sell and toss the money that's left in PLTR, IPOE, or UUUU.

Buying for a swing trade?

I'd call that optimistic.

Nope.  it will bounce back.  Probably best to sell at the open and then buy back lower if you want to hold it.

They bought a #### pile of LL and are locked in a contract to purchase more.  The only way they stay afloat is if they further dilute.  This is either going to be a 7 cent stock with 5 billion shares outstanding or bankrupt.  CYDY is currently a 2.5 billion dollar market cap stock.  That's the same market cap as Fulgent which had 33 million in sales last year.

Actually, FLGT's revenue in 2020 (last year) was over $400M and their market cap is $2.2B. I believe their 2021 forecast is $800M in sales. CYDY being worth more with the info from Friday night is crazy.

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22 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

They bought a #### pile of LL and are locked in a contract to purchase more.  The only way they stay afloat is if they further dilute.  This is either going to be a 7 cent stock with 5 billion shares outstanding or bankrupt.  CYDY is currently a 2.5 billion dollar market cap stock.  That's the same market cap as Fulgent which had 33 million in sales last year.

This may be true, but It will take some time before this happens.  This stock has been predictable and fairly easy to take profit from.  So why not do as this wise man once said regarding NP.

Quote

We're just riding his coattails to pick up some of the cash that's falling out of his pockets.

 

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22 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

This may be true, but It will take some time before this happens.  This stock has been predictable and fairly easy to take profit from.  So why not do as this wise man once said regarding NP.

 

Good luck.  This stock has throw me more curveballs than any other.  I just haven't been nearly as success as some of you trading it.

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3 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Good luck.  This stock has throw me more curveballs than any other.  I just haven't been nearly as success as some of you trading it.

I generally only trade in the first 15 minutes because it has been doing the same thing in 9 out of 10 days when there is no news.

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The PRs and interview of this weekend have proven a few things:

  1. Nader is an incompetent clown who needs to be replaced; and
  2. The drug works for critical patients.

I fully expect an approval from the FDA in 60-90 days.  

I am disappointed that the results don't merit an immediate approval but what's another 2-3 months? i will be adding on extreme weakness.

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3 minutes ago, chet said:

The PRs and interview of this weekend have proven a few things:

  1. Nader is an incompetent clown who needs to be replaced; and
  2. The drug works for critical patients.

I fully expect an approval from the FDA in 60-90 days.  

I am disappointed that the results don't merit an immediate approval but what's another 2-3 months? i will be adding on extreme weakness.

I’m not convinced with this guy leading the ship they’ll ever get an EUA, but I am convinced there is money to be made off the share price tomorrow. 

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19 minutes ago, Capella said:

I’m not convinced with this guy leading the ship they’ll ever get an EUA, but I am convinced there is money to be made off the share price tomorrow. 

I respectfully disagree with your contention that COVID will be gone in two months.  Vaccines and therapeutics will help but with the mutations, and the idiots refusing vaccine, COVID will be around for years if not forever.  Like the flu, which kills on average 60K people/year in the US, COVID will claim a similar amount.  I think we will progress from being in a pandemic to having another virus to deal with where we get a vaccination annually which will be +/- effective depending on the year.   There will be a demand for this drug for the foreseeable future IMO.

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10 minutes ago, chet said:

I respectfully disagree with your contention that COVID will be gone in two months.  Vaccines and therapeutics will help but with the mutations, and the idiots refusing vaccine, COVID will be around for years if not forever.  Like the flu, which kills on average 60K people/year in the US, COVID will claim a similar amount.  I think we will progress from being in a pandemic to having another virus to deal with where we get a vaccination annually which will be +/- effective depending on the year.   There will be a demand for this drug for the foreseeable future IMO.

I agree with this.

Also, I know of several people having long hauler issues locally (and Norman Chad from WSOP) and I read a few weeks back that I think that number is around 15% of people that had Covid are having issues later on with their lungs.

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14 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

I agree with this.

Also, I know of several people having long hauler issues locally (and Norman Chad from WSOP) and I read a few weeks back that I think that number is around 15% of people that had Covid are having issues later on with their lungs.

It's unproven, but Dr. Patterson has said he believes 30% of COVID victims suffer from chronic COVID.  He knows more about long haulers than anyone in the world.  He has hundreds of blood samples from patients and thousands waiting to be tested.  Through machine learning he has developed a long hauler index which quantifies the magnitude of the affliction.  If you have friends or family suffering from this have them go here.

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27 minutes ago, chet said:

I respectfully disagree with your contention that COVID will be gone in two months.  Vaccines and therapeutics will help but with the mutations, and the idiots refusing vaccine, COVID will be around for years if not forever.  Like the flu, which kills on average 60K people/year in the US, COVID will claim a similar amount.  I think we will progress from being in a pandemic to having another virus to deal with where we get a vaccination annually which will be +/- effective depending on the year.   There will be a demand for this drug for the foreseeable future IMO.

Oh it’s going to be endemic — but I doubt covid gets 60k a year. This vaccines target the virus better than the flu vax does. People will come around on the vaccines when they see a loved one die or whatever. 
 

There will be demand for this drug and anything that works on covid, just not to the point where if this got approval 6 months ago or something. They missed an opportunity there. 

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3 minutes ago, chet said:

It's unproven, but Dr. Patterson has said he believes 30% of COVID victims suffer from chronic COVID.  He knows more about long haulers than anyone in the world.  He has hundreds of blood samples from patients and thousands waiting to be tested.  Through machine learning he has developed a long hauler index which quantifies the magnitude of the affliction.  If you have friends or family suffering from this have them go to www.covidlonghaulers.com

yep, I've sent everyone there. Norman Chad was grateful.

I have chronic bronchitis from two blood clots in my lungs from 2009. It's brutal the 1-2 per year when it flares up. From what I've read the long haulers are having it much worse in a lot of cases.  I'm 12 hours away from getting my first shot.

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

Oh it’s going to be endemic — but I doubt covid gets 60k a year. This vaccines target the virus better than the flu vax does. People will come around on the vaccines when they see a loved one die or whatever. 
 

There will be demand for this drug and anything that works on covid, just not to the point where if this got approval 6 months ago or something. They missed an opportunity there. 

We will agree to disagree on this point but I hope you prove me wrong.

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1 minute ago, chet said:

We will agree to disagree on this point but I hope you prove me wrong.

Hopefully covid dissipates and this stock still makes a lot of money and helps a lot of people - I do think long haulers is the key to any future cydy may have, but a trial for that almost seems impossible to me. How do you even begin to design the endpoints? 

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12 minutes ago, Capella said:

Oh it’s going to be endemic — but I doubt covid gets 60k a year. This vaccines target the virus better than the flu vax does. People will come around on the vaccines when they see a loved one die or whatever. 
 

There will be demand for this drug and anything that works on covid, just not to the point where if this got approval 6 months ago or something. They missed an opportunity there. 

I hope your right, but this seems very optimistic.  We won't really know until next flu (Covid) season.  We should see numbers going down into summer.  I guess next September/October we will be able to see the effectiveness of the vaccines.

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14 minutes ago, Capella said:

Hopefully covid dissipates and this stock still makes a lot of money and helps a lot of people - I do think long haulers is the key to any future cydy may have, but a trial for that almost seems impossible to me. How do you even begin to design the endpoints? 

You partner with Dr. Patterson.  However, NP has apparently burned that bridge.

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1 hour ago, chet said:

The PRs and interview of this weekend have proven a few things:

  1. Nader is an incompetent clown who needs to be replaced; and
  2. The drug works for critical patients.

I fully expect an approval from the FDA in 60-90 days.  

I am disappointed that the results don't merit an immediate approval but what's another 2-3 months? i will be adding on extreme weakness.

I appreciate you making us money and my Ibud Cav stinking rich, but you don't know this to be true.  It works for critical patients when adjusted for age which makes the sample size so small that it might work better for NFC fans over AFC fans.

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