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In 2016 Michigan polling, Hillary led by 3.6 points, with 9.6% undecided OR supporting a third-party candidate. Trump ended up winning by 0.3%, which implies that he got a significant chunk of that undecided/third party vote.
Clinton had 46% of the vote in most of the polls leading up to the election. Trump had 43%.
More crazy is how many went for candidates 3-6.
If by "fascination with" you mean "emphasis on," then yes, emphasizing polling data is certainly backed by science.
I don't know anything about running a campaign but I do understand budgets. At some point he will have to not defend Georgia and Texas if he needs the fund for other states. I'd go as far as to say he might as well ignore them now because if he loses either of those it's over anyway.
By "fascination with", I'm referring to the repeated copy and paste in this very thread (and in society in general) of these various poll results, and then analysis on what they might mean. Seems to be a fanciful waste of time to me.
You might be right.
I agree that political people put too much stock in polls, although you may be overstating it a bit.
Martin Van Buren? Goldie Hawn? George “The Animal” Steele? Ralph Wiggum?Y'know who else supposedly built a "winning" coalition of voters?
That there is a "money crunch" at all is pretty much the perfect summary of this Presidency. He's spent 3 years (give him the benefit of the doubt that he shut things down a bit for this year after rona hit) aggressively collecting funds...had HUGE margins on all the Dems and now is in a crunch? Speaks to support, ability to manage funds, focus (or dangerous lack thereof) and inefficient organization as a whole. He's dumped a crapload of commercials into Florida with messages that can simply be interpreted as "flailing"....seems the approach is "whatever sticks is what we're going to go with". I think the problem (at least here in Central Florida) is that nothing's stuck. The fear mongering is level 10 at this point playing the "socialism/communism" hymn which I don't really understand. That audience is South Florida, so I'm not sure what to make of that other than going back to "focus" and "organization".
Likewise, the AJC is a very high quality polling outfit.
Brianne Pfannenstiel
Nate Cohn
Agreed. But I think its so they'll have a automatic on court disputes for the election.
Iowa seems to be a toss up even though most analysts have it as red-leaning. Not that it matters much. Iowa isn’t a tipping point state.
Yeah, I was thinking about this after posting. When considering the possibility of a contested election, winning Iowa, Ohio or other non-tipping states could help things quite a bit.
I concur. I have to assume a 5 point bump for Trump there....
I've said it many many times; I would be absolutely floored if Biden won Ohio. Hamilton (Cincy), Franklin (Columbus), and Cuyahoga (CLE) aren't enough to overcome the male blue collar, former-union rush to Trump.
Their polling outfit is separate from their news division — it’s actually considered to be quite good.
And the news division is really separate from the propaganda division.
