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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (2 Viewers)

Capella said:
For sure, but trump was kind of an unknown then, kind of a fun shake-up for a lot of voters. There are waaaaaaaay more people who despise him now and early voting is way more intense - those votes are already banked. All in all it’s just not apples to apples anymore. 
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Oh I agree, I think even if Biden loses ground between now and election day he probably won’t fall below +8 or so nationally. Way better position than Hillary. There have been some rumblings of “2016 all over again” on here and on twitter so I wanted to share those graphs. Over the summer people were comparing Biden’s lead to Dukakis’s in ‘88, but those comparisons stopped once Biden kept on rolling. If I had to bet, I’d say the 2016 comparisons are going to die a similar death.

 
caustic said:
Oh I agree, I think even if Biden loses ground between now and election day he probably won’t fall below +8 or so nationally. Way better position than Hillary. There have been some rumblings of “2016 all over again” on here and on twitter so I wanted to share those graphs. Over the summer people were comparing Biden’s lead to Dukakis’s in ‘88, but those comparisons stopped once Biden kept on rolling. If I had to bet, I’d say the 2016 comparisons are going to die a similar death.
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Yes. But I also understand why people are worried. I deal with statistics and probabilities for a lot of my job.....and even I am a little nervous despite knowing the position Biden is in. But it should be fine. 

 
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[scooter] said:
One thing that is different about 2020 is that Biden's lead has been steady. Since August 31st, he has only lost ground on three days. (Compare to Hillary: she lost ground 15 times before the 3rd debate.) Hillary would gain 2 points, then lose 1. Biden gains 1 point, then loses 0. Steady as she goes.
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I’m really looking forward to having a boring President we rarely think about.

 
Morning Consult (B/C)

NATIONAL: Biden +9 (52-43)
WISCONSIN: Biden +12 (54-42)
TEXAS: Biden +1 (48-47)
SOUTH CAROLINA: Trump +6 (51-45)
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden +9 (52-43)
OHIO: Trump +2 (49-47)
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden +3 (50-47)
MINNESOTA: Biden +9 (51-42)
MICHIGAN: Biden +8 (52-44)
GEORGIA: Even (48-48)
FLORIDA: Biden +7 (52-45)
COLORADO: Biden +16 (55-39)
ARIZONA: Trump +1 (48-47)

 
caustic said:
Morning Consult (B/C)

NATIONAL: Biden +9 (52-43)
WISCONSIN: Biden +12 (54-42)
TEXAS: Biden +1 (48-47)
SOUTH CAROLINA: Trump +6 (51-45)
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden +9 (52-43)
OHIO: Trump +2 (49-47)
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden +3 (50-47)
MINNESOTA: Biden +9 (51-42)
MICHIGAN: Biden +8 (52-44)
GEORGIA: Even (48-48)
FLORIDA: Biden +7 (52-45)
COLORADO: Biden +16 (55-39)
ARIZONA: Trump +1 (48-47)
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Love those Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida(!) numbers. 
Hate that Arizona number

 
Hugh Jass said:
Love those Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida(!) numbers. 
Hate that Arizona number
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Agree with this but I just feel better about Arizona for some reason given it has just continually trended blue.  It feels like it is a step behind Colorado which used to be a battleground and now is blue.  The midwest/PA have me worried after 2016 so I don't trust those numbers.  Florida is always close and also definately leans red and remains that way (even in 2018) so I know that race is always going to be close.   

 
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Redwes25 said:
Agree with this but I just feel better about Arizona for some reason given it has just continually trended blue.  It feels like it is a step behind Colorado which used to be a battleground and now is blue.  The midwest/PA have me worried after 2016 so I don't trust those numbers.  Florida is always close and also definately leans red and remains that way (even in 2018) so I know that race is always going to be close.   
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I was curious how the landscape has shifted in some battleground states then vs. now, so I figured I would do the research . . .

On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary + 3.7 | Biden +3.8
PA: Hillary +7.1 | Biden + 6.3
OH: Hillary +1.5 | Biden -0.8
MI: Hillary +8.8 | Biden +8.1
WI: Hillary +7.7 | Biden +6.6
MN: Hillary +7.6 | Biden +8.0
NC: Hillary +2.9 | Biden +3.1
IA: Hillary +0.7 | Biden +1.0
AZ: Hillary +0.7 | Biden +3.4
NV: Hillary +3.8 | Biden +6.5
CO: Hillary +7.4 | Biden +13.0
GA: Hillary -3.0 | Biden +0.9
TX: Hillary -5.9 | Biden -0.6
NH: Hillary +8.5 | Biden +11.5

Overall, things look pretty similar / big picture wise. However, 538 claims that it adjusted their models and formulas to make their forecasts more accurate. Clearly we will have to wait and see.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I was curious how the landscape has shifted in some battleground states then vs. now, so I figured I would do the research . . .

On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary + 3.7 | Biden +3.8
PA: Hillary +7.1 | Biden + 6.3
OH: Hillary +1.5 | Biden -0.8
MI: Hillary +8.8 | Biden +8.1
WI: Hillary +7.7 | Biden +6.6
MN: Hillary +7.6 | Biden +8.0
NC: Hillary +2.9 | Biden +3.1
IA: Hillary +0.7 | Biden +1.0
AZ: Hillary +0.7 | Biden +3.4
NV: Hillary +3.8 | Biden +6.5
CO: Hillary +7.4 | Biden +13.0
GA: Hillary -3.0 | Biden +0.9
TX: Hillary -5.9 | Biden -0.6
NH: Hillary +8.5 | Biden +11.5

Overall, things look pretty similar / big picture wise. However, 538 claims that it adjusted their models and formulas to make their forecasts more accurate. Clearly we will have to wait and see.
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Of course, some other factors comparing the races are the number of undecideds, race volatility, and the Comey announcement.

 
Juxtatarot said:
Of course, some other factors comparing the races are the number of undecideds, race volatility, and the Comey announcement.
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Certainly all of that is part of the mix. And this year there have already been millions of ballots already cast (so people can't flip who they are voting for).

 
Anarchy99 said:
I was curious how the landscape has shifted in some battleground states then vs. now, so I figured I would do the research . . .

On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary + 3.7 | Biden +3.8
PA: Hillary +7.1 | Biden + 6.3
OH: Hillary +1.5 | Biden -0.8
MI: Hillary +8.8 | Biden +8.1
WI: Hillary +7.7 | Biden +6.6
MN: Hillary +7.6 | Biden +8.0
NC: Hillary +2.9 | Biden +3.1
IA: Hillary +0.7 | Biden +1.0
AZ: Hillary +0.7 | Biden +3.4
NV: Hillary +3.8 | Biden +6.5
CO: Hillary +7.4 | Biden +13.0
GA: Hillary -3.0 | Biden +0.9
TX: Hillary -5.9 | Biden -0.6
NH: Hillary +8.5 | Biden +11.5

Overall, things look pretty similar / big picture wise. However, 538 claims that it adjusted their models and formulas to make their forecasts more accurate. Clearly we will have to wait and see.
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Very interesting, thanks for putting this together.  Kind of goes with my sense that the sun belt and mountain west are slowly becoming more blue but midwest states are up for grabs and I don't trust those numbers around PA, WI, IA, etc. at all.  I feel good about the election but I felt good about the last one as well.  We shall see.  

 
Anarchy99 said:
Certainly all of that is part of the mix. And this year there have already been millions of ballots already cast (so people can't flip who they are voting for).
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I also left out some other differences. 

  • There were systemic polling errors regarding Midwestern whites without a college degree that ended up favoring Trump.  We shouldn't have reason to believe those errors are still the case this time. 
  • There was an air of inevitability that Hillary would win.  I believe this suppressed the turnout of potential Hillary voters. Why bother, right?  That isn't the case this time as many more people think Trump has a very good chance at winning.
  • Biden's favorable ratings are higher than Clinton's.
  • People are more enthusiastic to vote this year compared to 2016.
 
Juxtatarot said:
I also left out some other differences. 

  • There were systemic polling errors regarding Midwestern whites without a college degree that ended up favoring Trump.  We shouldn't have reason to believe those errors are still the case this time. 
  • There was an air of inevitability that Hillary would win.  I believe this suppressed the turnout of potential Hillary voters. Why bother, right?  That isn't the case this time as many more people think Trump has a very good chance at winning.
  • Biden's favorable ratings are higher than Clinton's.
  • People are more enthusiastic to vote this year compared to 2016.
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The one thing I find curious is the high voter turnout element. I haven't seen a ton of people that voted Hillary last time now saying they will vote for Trump. Even though it sounds like the GOP has gotten more new voters this time around in some battleground states, I wonder how all the "extra" votes will go. At least where I am (Northeast), it seems like Trump's base has grown more unified (but not necessarily greater in number). I know a lot of people that voted Trump then and will do so again, but I know a ton of people who just feel Trump needs to go (including Republicans).

All that being said, those are all people that voted last time, so I am really intrigued by where all the extra votes are going to come from and how they will break. Like you said, maybe there are Democrats that didn't bother last time thinking Hillary was a shoe in. And this time around, there are a lot fewer undecideds and independent votes.

So I am unsure how polls are indicative of what to predict with a much larger voter turnout. Polls take a snapshot of what they think voters will do. But if there are now a million more people compelled to go vote in a given state, what does that usually signify? Does that generally reflect more people are unhappy with the incumbent? Do those additional voters typically break at the same percentage as the "normal" amount of voters? If I had to guess, the extra voters will favor Biden, but that may not mean much in isolated battleground states. Biden getting an extra million votes from California is pretty much useless.

 
Diverse approval rating poll numbers today. 538's aggregate approval rating among registered voters is down to 42.7%. That's mainly the result of American Research Groups 35% rating showing up today, they post results every month, and they've been on the abnormally low side for this for a long time. On the flip side, Rassmussen came in at 52% approval, highest that's been since late September. Seems like all the other polls have had a slight uptick in the approval rating over the past week or so 1 to 2 points. So that American Research Groups poll is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in bringing the aggregate down to its lowest point since late August. I think overall the upward trend in all the other polls is disturbing.

 
Redwes25 said:
Very interesting, thanks for putting this together.  Kind of goes with my sense that the sun belt and mountain west are slowly becoming more blue but midwest states are up for grabs and I don't trust those numbers around PA, WI, IA, etc. at all.  I feel good about the election but I felt good about the last one as well.  We shall see.  
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I feel good about Biden but I can't say I ever felt good about Hillary.  I didn't vote for her but I was certain that folks wouldn't elect someone who I felt was so unqualified and out of his depth.  I can't say that I'm still not shocked 4 years later.  I railed against the 2-party system prior to 2016 but that just cemented it - we (collectively) don't care about electing someone who is qualified, we care about our team winning.  It was eye opening to say the least.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I was curious how the landscape has shifted in some battleground states then vs. now, so I figured I would do the research . . .

On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary + 3.7 | Biden +3.8
PA: Hillary +7.1 | Biden + 6.3
OH: Hillary +1.5 | Biden -0.8
MI: Hillary +8.8 | Biden +8.1
WI: Hillary +7.7 | Biden +6.6
MN: Hillary +7.6 | Biden +8.0
NC: Hillary +2.9 | Biden +3.1
IA: Hillary +0.7 | Biden +1.0
AZ: Hillary +0.7 | Biden +3.4
NV: Hillary +3.8 | Biden +6.5
CO: Hillary +7.4 | Biden +13.0
GA: Hillary -3.0 | Biden +0.9
TX: Hillary -5.9 | Biden -0.6
NH: Hillary +8.5 | Biden +11.5

Overall, things look pretty similar / big picture wise. However, 538 claims that it adjusted their models and formulas to make their forecasts more accurate. Clearly we will have to wait and see.
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Actually % is probably a better indicator to compare the two years. One of the big differences between 2016 and 2020 is the number of undecided voters. Far fewer voters to make up the difference between now and the election.

 
Biff84 said:
Actually % is probably a better indicator to compare the two years. One of the big differences between 2016 and 2020 is the number of undecided voters. Far fewer voters to make up the difference between now and the election.
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On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary 73.7% | Biden 72%
PA: Hillary 87.9% | Biden 87%
OH: Hillary 60.0% | Biden 44%
MI: Hillary 92.0% | Biden 92%
WI: Hillary 88.9% | Biden 86%
MN: Hillary 87.5% | Biden 91%
NC: Hillary 69.8% | Biden 67%
IA: Hillary 54.1% | Biden 48%
AZ: Hillary 54.4% | Biden 67%
NV: Hillary 72.1% | Biden 90%
CO: Hillary 88.4% | Biden 95%
GA: Hillary 29.4% | Biden 50%
TX: Hillary 16.6% | Biden 35%
NH: Hillary 86.4% | Biden 87%

Not a ton of difference. Biden might be doing better in states he probably won't win, but that doesn't really help any. This pretty much sets things up for people to say the poll numbers are similar to last time and they were wrong then, no reason to expect they will be right now. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary 73.7% | Biden 72%
PA: Hillary 87.9% | Biden 87%
OH: Hillary 60.0% | Biden 44%
MI: Hillary 92.0% | Biden 92%
WI: Hillary 88.9% | Biden 86%
MN: Hillary 87.5% | Biden 91%
NC: Hillary 69.8% | Biden 67%
IA: Hillary 54.1% | Biden 48%
AZ: Hillary 54.4% | Biden 67%
NV: Hillary 72.1% | Biden 90%
CO: Hillary 88.4% | Biden 95%
GA: Hillary 29.4% | Biden 50%
TX: Hillary 16.6% | Biden 35%
NH: Hillary 86.4% | Biden 87%

Not a ton of difference. Biden might be doing better in states he probably won't win, but that doesn't really help any. This pretty much sets things up for people to say the poll numbers are similar to last time and they were wrong then, no reason to expect they will be right now. 
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I meant the raw %. An 8% lead when it’s 47-39 is a lot different than if it’s 52-44.

 
AAABatteries said:
I feel good about Biden but I can't say I ever felt good about Hillary.  I didn't vote for her but I was certain that folks wouldn't elect someone who I felt was so unqualified and out of his depth.  I can't say that I'm still not shocked 4 years later.  I railed against the 2-party system prior to 2016 but that just cemented it - we (collectively) don't care about electing someone who is qualified, we care about our team winning.  It was eye opening to say the least.
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Never felt good about Hilary.  I felt good that we wouldn't elect a complete buffoon.  I was wrong on that one.  

 
Biff84 said:
I meant the raw %. An 8% lead when it’s 47-39 is a lot different than if it’s 52-44.
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On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary 49.2-45.5 (+3.7) | Biden 49.2-46.3 (+2.9)
PA: Hillary 50.4-43.3 (+7.1) | Biden 50.6-44.3 (+6.3)
OH: Hillary 47.2-45.7 (+1.5) | Biden 46.6-47.4 (-0.8)
MI: Hillary 50.3-41.5 (+8.8) | Biden 50.8-42.7 (+8.1)
WI: Hillary 50.2-42.5 (+7.7) | Biden 50.5-43.9 (+6.6)
MN: Hillary 50.3-42.7 (+7.6) | Biden 50.1-42.1 (+8.0)
NC: Hillary 48.6-45.9 (+2.7) | Biden 49.2-46.3 (+2.9)
IA: Hillary 46.3-45.6 (+0.7) | Biden  47.5-46.5 (+1.0)
AZ: Hillary 46.4-45.7 (+0.7) | Biden 48.8-45.3 (+3.5)
NV: Hillary 48.1-44.3 (+3.8) | Biden 50.0-43.5 (+6.5)
CO: Hillary 48.9-41.5 (+7.4) | Biden 52.7-39.7 (+13.0)
GA: Hillary 48.7-45.7 (+3.0) | Biden 47.5-46.6 (+0.9)
TX: Hillary 43.8-49.6 (-5.8) | Biden 47.2-47.8 (-0.6)
NH: Hillary 49.7-41.2 (+8.5)  | Biden 53.7-42.2 (+11.5)

By comparison, Biden might actually be polling slightly worse than Hillary did at this point in a lot of swing states. He might be doing better nationally than Hillary was, but those extra votes may be coming from states Biden is way ahead in (and won't really matter) or states that he is polling better than Hillary did (yet still is going to lose).

The other thing I seemed to notice is that this cycle there haven't been many states that went back and forth across the last year. Most states have been pretty consistent, while with Hillary, both candidates seemed to lead in some stated at different points in time and their chances of winning that state spanned all over the map. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary 49.2-45.5 (+3.7) | Biden 49.2-46.3 (+2.9)
PA: Hillary 50.4-43.3 (+7.1) | Biden 50.6-44.3 (+6.3)
OH: Hillary 47.2-45.7 (+1.5) | Biden 46.6-47.4 (-0.8)
MI: Hillary 50.3-41.5 (+8.8) | Biden 50.8-42.7 (+8.1)
WI: Hillary 50.2-42.5 (+7.7) | Biden 50.5-43.9 (+6.6)
MN: Hillary 50.3-42.7 (+7.6) | Biden 50.1-42.1 (+8.0)
NC: Hillary 48.6-45.9 (+2.7) | Biden 49.2-46.3 (+2.9)
IA: Hillary 46.3-45.6 (+0.7) | Biden  47.5-46.5 (+1.0)
AZ: Hillary 46.4-45.7 (+0.7) | Biden 48.8-45.3 (+3.5)
NV: Hillary 48.1-44.3 (+3.8) | Biden 50.0-43.5 (+6.5)
CO: Hillary 48.9-41.5 (+7.4) | Biden 52.7-39.7 (+13.0)
GA: Hillary 48.7-45.7 (+3.0) | Biden 47.5-46.6 (+0.9)
TX: Hillary 43.8-49.6 (-5.8) | Biden 47.2-47.8 (-0.6)
NH: Hillary 49.7-41.2 (+8.5)  | Biden 53.7-42.2 (+11.5)

By comparison, Biden might actually be polling slightly worse than Hillary did at this point in a lot of swing states. He might be doing better nationally than Hillary was, but those extra votes may be coming from states Biden is way ahead in (and won't really matter) or states that he is polling better than Hillary did (yet still is going to lose).

The other thing I seemed to notice is that this cycle there haven't been many states that went back and forth across the last year. Most states have been pretty consistent, while with Hillary, both candidates seemed to lead in some stated at different points in time and their chances of winning that state spanned all over the map. 
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I like the RCP aggregate battleground state tracker.  It just recently turned positive for Biden (compared to 2016)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

 
I honestly think this race comes down to PA.  If Biden can win it then it is going to be very tough for Trump to win.  He would basically need to sweep all battleground states and I think Biden will pick up at least one or two other battleground states no matter what and especially if he wins PA.  If Biden losses PA then we have a repeat of 2016 but would think larger national vote win then for Biden and a closer elctoral college descision as well since I think Biden will pick up at least one or two new states.    

 
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Redwes25 said:
I honestly think this race comes down to PA.  If Biden can win it then it is going to be very tough for Trump to win.  He would basically need to sweep all battleground states and I think Biden will pick up at least one or two other battleground states if he wins PA.  If Biden losses PA then we have a repeat of 2016 but would think larger national vote win then for Biden and a closer elctoral college descision as well since I think Biden will pick up at least one or two other swing states.    
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Biden would probably win if he took one of FL, OH, and PA while Trump most likely has to win all of those (and still might not win). If Biden can carry MN, WI, MI (while losing FL, OH, and PA), he can still win if he takes one of the other battleground states (GA, AZ, NC). But at that point the final electoral tally would be single digits either way.

For example, if Biden took the other states that he is currently heavily favored to win but lost FL, OH, PA (which would add up to 258 electoral votes), he could win with . . .

Arizona (11) + Nebraska D2 (1) = 270
Arizona (11) + Maine D2 (1) = 270
Georgia (16) = 274
North Carolina (15) = 273

Of course, if Trump does win FL, OH, and PA, he will likely have done better in other states as well. That being said, hopefully it won't be that close.

 
Anarchy99 said:
On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .
 
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I'm not sure comparing 10/22/2016 to 10/22/2020 is the relevant data point.  The 2016 election occurred on Nov 8, while the 2020 election will occur on Nov 3 (and significantly before, with early voting numbers setting all sorts of records).  Wouldn't the relevant comparison be 10/27/2016 vs 10/22/2020?

 
Goodell's Alias said:
I'm not sure comparing 10/22/2016 to 10/22/2020 is the relevant data point.  The 2016 election occurred on Nov 8, while the 2020 election will occur on Nov 3 (and significantly before, with early voting numbers setting all sorts of records).  Wouldn't the relevant comparison be 10/27/2016 vs 10/22/2020?
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Probably. But I have researched the numbers and posted them 3 times, so I would be happy to pass that on to someone else to compile. That being said, Clinton had the email issue pop up again in the lead up to the election and the numbers got scrambled and all over the map. So far, that hasn't happened with Biden. Who knows, maybe the laptop story and/or debate will ruffle the polls.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The other thing I seemed to notice is that this cycle there haven't been many states that went back and forth across the last year. Most states have been pretty consistent, while with Hillary, both candidates seemed to lead in some stated at different points in time and their chances of winning that state spanned all over the map. 
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2016:
Florida: 6 lead changes
North Carolina: 5 lead changes
Ohio: 3 lead changes
Arizona: 3 lead changes

There were no lead changes in PA/MI/WI, but they were all very volatile, with Trump occasionally getting within the margin of error.

2020:
Florida: 0 lead changes
North Carolina: 6 lead changes (in Biden's favor)
Ohio: 1 lead change (in Trump's favor)
Arizona: 0 lead changes

And PA/MI/WI have all been much less volatile than 2016.

Not sure exactly what that means but it makes me much more confident that PA/MI/WI and AZ will go to Biden. At that point, Trump can have FL/NC/OH and it won't matter.

 
Anarchy99 said:
On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary 49.2-45.5 (+3.7) | Biden 49.2-46.3 (+2.9)
PA: Hillary 50.4-43.3 (+7.1) | Biden 50.6-44.3 (+6.3)
OH: Hillary 47.2-45.7 (+1.5) | Biden 46.6-47.4 (-0.8)
MI: Hillary 50.3-41.5 (+8.8) | Biden 50.8-42.7 (+8.1)
WI: Hillary 50.2-42.5 (+7.7) | Biden 50.5-43.9 (+6.6)
MN: Hillary 50.3-42.7 (+7.6) | Biden 50.1-42.1 (+8.0)
NC: Hillary 48.6-45.9 (+2.7) | Biden 49.2-46.3 (+2.9)
IA: Hillary 46.3-45.6 (+0.7) | Biden  47.5-46.5 (+1.0)
AZ: Hillary 46.4-45.7 (+0.7) | Biden 48.8-45.3 (+3.5)
NV: Hillary 48.1-44.3 (+3.8) | Biden 50.0-43.5 (+6.5)
CO: Hillary 48.9-41.5 (+7.4) | Biden 52.7-39.7 (+13.0)
GA: Hillary 48.7-45.7 (+3.0) | Biden 47.5-46.6 (+0.9)
TX: Hillary 43.8-49.6 (-5.8) | Biden 47.2-47.8 (-0.6)
NH: Hillary 49.7-41.2 (+8.5)  | Biden 53.7-42.2 (+11.5)

By comparison, Biden might actually be polling slightly worse than Hillary did at this point in a lot of swing states. He might be doing better nationally than Hillary was, but those extra votes may be coming from states Biden is way ahead in (and won't really matter) or states that he is polling better than Hillary did (yet still is going to lose).

The other thing I seemed to notice is that this cycle there haven't been many states that went back and forth across the last year. Most states have been pretty consistent, while with Hillary, both candidates seemed to lead in some stated at different points in time and their chances of winning that state spanned all over the map. 
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Ok I was was wrong. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Biden would probably win if he took one of FL, OH, and PA while Trump most likely has to win all of those (and still might not win). If Biden can carry MN, WI, MI (while losing FL, OH, and PA), he can still win if he takes one of the other battleground states (GA, AZ, NC). But at that point the final electoral tally would be single digits either way.

For example, if Biden took the other states that he is currently heavily favored to win but lost FL, OH, PA (which would add up to 258 electoral votes), he could win with . . .

Arizona (11) + Nebraska D2 (1) = 270
Arizona (11) + Maine D2 (1) = 270
Georgia (16) = 274
North Carolina (15) = 273

Of course, if Trump does win FL, OH, and PA, he will likely have done better in other states as well. That being said, hopefully it won't be that close.
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I think OH is going to end up in Trump camp.  Florida always leans more republican and feels to me like a toss up that is more likely in Trumps column.  So I think it is pretty realistic view that Trump can win both of those, which means it comes down to PA in my mind.  I see Biden picking up a couple other swing states that have polled well for him out of Michigan, Wisconsin, AZ and NC.  So whoever gets PA is in a real place to win this.

Justs to compare, I recently read that when Clinton team learned they lost PA they realized they had lost the election.  I feel like we are in a repeat situation here.  Of course, Florida always reports fast and if Biden wins Florida this thing is over.  (Did I just undercut my entire argument?)   

 
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Redwes25 said:
I think OH is going to end up in Trump camp.  Florida always leans more republican and feels to me like a toss up that is more likely in Trumps column.  So I think it is pretty realistic view that Trump can win both of those, which means it comes down to PA in my mind.  I see Biden picking up a couple other swing states that have polled well for him out of Michigan, Wisconsin, AZ and NC.  So whoever gets PA is in a real place to win this.

Justs to compare, I recently read that when Clinton team learned they lost PA they realized they had lost the election.  I feel like we are in a repeat situation here.  Of course, Florida always reports fast and if Biden wins Florida this thing is over.  (Did I just undercut my entire argument?)   
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Having it come down to Pennsylvania is a nightmare scenario for the Biden and the country in general. It’s unlikely to be a clear Trump win, bringing on a scenario that Trump will appear to win on Election Day with votes continuing to be counted and pushing Biden over the top several days later leading to mass chaos, lawsuits and possibly even violence with no certain outcome. Given how 2020 has gone, that’s absolutely what will happen.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Probably. But I have researched the numbers and posted them 3 times, so I would be happy to pass that on to someone else to compile. That being said, Clinton had the email issue pop up again in the lead up to the election and the numbers got scrambled and all over the map. So far, that hasn't happened with Biden. Who knows, maybe the laptop story and/or debate will ruffle the polls.
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Not only that, but at this point in 2016 it was two weeks after the Access Hollywood tape dropped so that was probably completely factored into the polls.  I sincerely appreciate you spending the time to crunch the numbers here but there are just way too many variables to see them as having any comparative value. 

 
Biff84 said:
Having it come down to Pennsylvania is a nightmare scenario for the Biden and the country in general. It’s unlikely to be a clear Trump win, bringing on a scenario that Trump will appear to win on Election Day with votes continuing to be counted and pushing Biden over the top several days later leading to mass chaos, lawsuits and possibly even violence with no certain outcome. Given how 2020 has gone, that’s absolutely what will happen.
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I don't know. I feel like (and hope)  with so many expecting the worst, it won't happen.
PA has just over 9 million registered voters. 1.3 million ballots have been returned as of 10/22 out of 2.9 requested so far.
. 6.1 million votes were cast for all candidates in 2016, which was 70% turnout (of 8.7 million registered; it was 60% of all of age to vote) 

 
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Greedo said:
Nate Silver on Expected 2020 Turnout

Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million, by comparison.
 

I thing this bodes well for the Democrats.
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Have to look at it by state to get any real sense of who this favors.  If CA gets 10M more Democratic votes and FL and PA get 1M more Republican votes it's really not a boon for Democrats.  TBH, swing state votes totals are really what matters.  

 
[scooter] said:
Some polls are designed solely to drive traffic to their website. Other polls are commissioned so that candidates (or the media) can better determine where to deploy resources.
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The parties do their own polling based off of their registers which they say are more accurate historically than the phone polling done by some of these poll sites.

 
Over 50 million early votes so far.

Texas is at 70% of TOTAL 2016 votes now.

ETA: Texas is actually at 71.1% of total 2016 turnout as of this morning. Sorry for posting incorrect info above.

 
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NightStalkers said:
https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/  This poll is rated A/B by 538.  It says 2.8 lead head to head.

An analysis by Nate Silver for The New York Times named the IBD/TIPP Poll the most accurate poll of the 2012 election.  So this isn't a poll from Right leaning polling and predates the Trump time in office. They   also were one of 2 polls that got Trump in 2016 correct.

They were also very close in 2004 and had Bush's win within 1 point.

They had the race at 8.6 points a week ago.  Close to a 6 point change in a week.  I can't remember polls changing this much and with such big differences with different companies doing it. Even polls done by the same companies in a weeks time.
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Strange thing with this one. Today's IBD/TIPP poll has it 48.9 Biden 45.2 Trump. Looking back through the poll history on 538, this Oct 20 poll you mentioned above no longer appears. It may be that Oct 20 poll had errors. The IBD/TIPP poll prior to that (Oct 18) had it 49.5 Biden 44.5 Trump. Still not a good trend for Biden, but I doubt that Oct 20 poll was accurate.

 
Gr00vus said:
Strange thing with this one. Today's IBD/TIPP poll has it 48.9 Biden 45.2 Trump. Looking back through the poll history on 538, this Oct 20 poll you mentioned above no longer appears. It may be that Oct 20 poll had errors. The IBD/TIPP poll prior to that (Oct 18) had it 49.5 Biden 44.5 Trump. Still not a good trend for Biden, but I doubt that Oct 20 poll was accurate.
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i think it was a link from the poll page at the bottom.  I don't see much  value in polls.  I saw some tweets from people showing 2016 swing state RCP avg poll results and the actual results and some where off like over 10 points.  That isn't margin of error, it's just an error.  I think Trump is in trouble not because of polls but of the senate races.  And some of those have been better for republicans in some places than before and that could account for the race tightening above.  I won't vote for Biden because of the things that he is wanting to do not because of wanting Trump.  I get pissed at the obvious bias of the media on the things like Hunter Biden when even Obama's Ukrain ambassador testified at the impeachment hearing that they were afraid of the conflict of interestthing.    But you vote for who you think is best and polls shouldn't have to anything to do with that.

 
Anarchy99 said:
On 10/22 2016 vs. 2020 (from 538) . . .

FL: Hillary 49.2-45.5 (+3.7) | Biden 49.2-46.3 (+2.9)
PA: Hillary 50.4-43.3 (+7.1) | Biden 50.6-44.3 (+6.3)
OH: Hillary 47.2-45.7 (+1.5) | Biden 46.6-47.4 (-0.8)
MI: Hillary 50.3-41.5 (+8.8) | Biden 50.8-42.7 (+8.1)
WI: Hillary 50.2-42.5 (+7.7) | Biden 50.5-43.9 (+6.6)
MN: Hillary 50.3-42.7 (+7.6) | Biden 50.1-42.1 (+8.0)
NC: Hillary 48.6-45.9 (+2.7) | Biden 49.2-46.3 (+2.9)
IA: Hillary 46.3-45.6 (+0.7) | Biden  47.5-46.5 (+1.0)
AZ: Hillary 46.4-45.7 (+0.7) | Biden 48.8-45.3 (+3.5)
NV: Hillary 48.1-44.3 (+3.8) | Biden 50.0-43.5 (+6.5)
CO: Hillary 48.9-41.5 (+7.4) | Biden 52.7-39.7 (+13.0)
GA: Hillary 48.7-45.7 (+3.0) | Biden 47.5-46.6 (+0.9)
TX: Hillary 43.8-49.6 (-5.8) | Biden 47.2-47.8 (-0.6)
NH: Hillary 49.7-41.2 (+8.5)  | Biden 53.7-42.2 (+11.5)

By comparison, Biden might actually be polling slightly worse than Hillary did at this point in a lot of swing states. He might be doing better nationally than Hillary was, but those extra votes may be coming from states Biden is way ahead in (and won't really matter) or states that he is polling better than Hillary did (yet still is going to lose).

The other thing I seemed to notice is that this cycle there haven't been many states that went back and forth across the last year. Most states have been pretty consistent, while with Hillary, both candidates seemed to lead in some stated at different points in time and their chances of winning that state spanned all over the map. 
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Still waiting for the Comey effect to pull the Hillary numbers down. That’s a major qualifier to comparing the two. Should be in a few days. 

 
I'm thinking that Biden winning Texas is a good bet.  You can get around +225 right now.  Early voting usually favors Democrats, and over 70% of Texas has already voted (when compared to the 2016 numbers).  I know Trump is favored, but I think this one will be close and the odds look really nice.

 
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