Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, caustic said:

New poll from TX-03 (Dallas suburbs) shows Biden leading by 11, 51-40. Trump won this district by 15 points in 2016. 

I really think Biden at +235 is a great bet for Texas.  I think he is only a slight underdog right now and I can see them being within 1% of each other.  I understand that Trump is the favorite, but that is a good return on your bet.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be

I appreciate all the kind posts, really enjoyed the Poll Chat in here. Let’s do it again in 2022.  In what is probably our final poll of the cycle, we have a survey of Pinellas county, FL. Pinella

@caustic Want to thank you for keeping this thread so updated and useful. Now it is time to watch the only poll that really matters. 

49 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Rasmussen claiming Trump is up 48%-47% nationally based on 1,500 likely voters. They had Biden ahead 49%-46% on Wednesday. I have not see any other poll where Trump is leading.

I saw that this morning. I find it concerning. Either they're right and everyone else is wrong, or they deserve much worse than 538's c+ rating. Their Presidential approval rating poll is also significantly out of line with almost all others.

Edited by Gr00vus
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

I really think Biden at +235 is a great bet for Texas.  I think he is only a slight underdog right now and I can see them being within 1% of each other.  I understand that Trump is the favorite, but that is a good return on your bet.

Yeah, I opened a Predictit account this morning and put a little money on Biden in TX. NYT/Siena is releasing their TX poll in an hour which could potentially move things.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, General Malaise said:

I'd love to see it, but I have a hard time believing the state of Texas will be turning blue for a president in any of our lifetimes.  

I would normally agree, but if its ever going to happen...

Texas also has a huge early vote right now (75% of the total 2016 vote).  Democrats have historically voted 2 to 1 over Republicans in early voting for the US.  If the early vote data holds along historical lines, then this race is tight.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

I'd love to see it, but I have a hard time believing the state of Texas will be turning blue for a president in any of our lifetimes.  

IMHO, it will happen by the 2032 or 2036 presidential race.

Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, caustic said:

New poll from TX-03 (Dallas suburbs) shows Biden leading by 11, 51-40. Trump won this district by 15 points in 2016. 

The same pollster has the Democratic House candidate leading by 2 points. She's a political newcomer and a child of immigrants.

In 2016, the Republican won the House seat with 61.2% of the vote. In 2018, the Republican won with 54.2%.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Have posted this elsewhere in this forum but to memorialize the prognostications, I will drop them here, too:

Quote

95-100% that Biden is our next president. No deep dive into the stats and polls, just general impressions:
 

- Biden gets back WI, MI, and PA and IA. 2016 Trump was about as weak as a state winner can be in these areas. Super vulnerable in all four of these states.

- Trump keeps OH to make things semi-interesting early in the evening. Here, Trump can afford to lose three or four percentage points from 2016 and still carry the state.

- Biden wins NC in a mild surprise. In contrast to Ohio, if Trump loses a percentage point here, the state probably flips blue.

- Trump keeps GA, but it's startlingly close. Just a hunch -- Excluding Ross Perot's vote-splitting, 2016 Trump was the weakest Republican candidate in Georgia since 1980 when Carter won his home state. Trump won by 5 points in 2016; I'll bet he squeaks by Biden by less than one this time around. It'll be news.

- Trump keeps TX, but the surprise is he only hovers around the 50% mark, with Biden coming in north of 48% 46%. Similar to Georgia, you have to go back to 1976 to find a GOP candidate that performed as weak in Texas as 2016 Trump. [NOTE: I do think Texas is (very) slowly turning blue, but 2020 Biden getting 48% seems a little too ambitious on second thought. 2008 Obama and 2016 H. Clinton both got to 43% and change ... I can see Biden bumping that to 46%]

- Biden flips FL back to the Dems, becoming the first candidate since 1988 to get more than 53% of the state's vote. The newscasters hold out for Central Time Zone Escambia County before calling FL to maintain viewer interest. H. Clinton lost to Trump by 1.2% while picking up over 200,000 more Florida votes than either of Obama's runs. Biden's got room to move here, whereas Trump barely scraped past 49% in 2016 and will lose a few points off of that.

- Biden flips AZ to put the final nail in Trump's 2020 run. 2/3 of Arizona's popular vote is in Maricopa County. In that county, 3rd-parties took just under 10% of the vote in a election that Trump won by less than 3%. In November, the 3rd party vote drops and Maricopa swings Democratic. Pretty similar to Florida. 2016 Hillary outvoted both of Obama's runs by over 130,000 votes. 2016 Trump stumbled to 48%. Not a state Republicans can take for granted in 2020.

 

Edited by Doug B
formatting
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

I'd love to see it, but I have a hard time believing the state of Texas will be turning blue for a president in any of our lifetimes.  

At the rate Californians are moving from CA to TX, it could happen sooner than you think. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

I would normally agree, but if its ever going to happen...

Texas also has a huge early vote right now (75% of the total 2016 vote).  Democrats have historically voted 2 to 1 over Republicans in early voting for the US.  If the early vote data holds along historical lines, then this race is tight.

I sure hope you're right.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, FBG26 said:
38 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

I'd love to see it, but I have a hard time believing the state of Texas will be turning blue for a president in any of our lifetimes.  

At the rate Californians are moving from CA to TX, it could happen sooner than you think. 

The suburban counties near Travis County (Austin) are weakening for the Republicans. 2016 Trump didn't make it to 47% in Hays County, and only to 51% in Williamson County. Those figures represent significant drop-offs from Romney and McCain's performances.

Dallas, Harris (Houston), and Bexar (San Antonio) have been moving Democratic since 2004, with Obama/Hillary sweeping all three. Surrounding suburban counties are starting to come into play in these areas, too (e.g. Fort Bend County SW of Houston went blue in '16).

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Don’t trust early voting. Talk in 2016 was how much it benefited Clinton. In most cases, it is just timing of the vote as most earlier voters would have voted anyway (like me a first time early voter). 

I don't think early voting matters but I do think heavy voting likely favors Biden. This was discussed some last week in this thread. Someone referenced a study that indicated that heavy voting typically helped the challenger and hurt the incumbent (although how much is still open for debate). I have nothing to hang my hat on, but I think the polls probably show close to an accurate picture / breakdown for repeat voters, but I do think Biden will have a pretty decent advantage for people voting this time that didn't vote last time. As mentioned by several people, that is pretty much meaningless in places like CA and NY . . . winning by another million votes there is irrelevant. But in battleground states, if the "extra voters" break 60/40 for Biden like I think they might, then Biden may carry more toss up states (or ones where DJT might hold a slight lead) than expected.

Last I saw, the prediction is that there will be 10-15% more votes cast this election than in 2016. Does anyone know if one of the polling questions is asking whether that person voted in 2016 or not? The breakdown of "new voters" is probably a telltale sign of how the election is going to go, but I haven't seen anything about it discussed anywhere.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Biden slipped from 88% to 86% basically in one update at 538. Wonder what dropped him by two points in one update. I posted earlier that Rasmussen had Trump +1 nationally . . . but Biden still was 88% after they posted that. I wonder if they have a lag to catch up on the latest polls.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Biden slipped from 88% to 86% basically in one update at 538. Wonder what dropped him by two points in one update. I posted earlier that Rasmussen had Trump +1 nationally . . . but Biden still was 88% after they posted that. I wonder if they have a lag to catch up on the latest polls.

Texas NYtimes poll - 4% by A+ pollster.  Moved texas from 62% to 68% in Trumps direction.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Biden slipped from 88% to 86% basically in one update at 538. Wonder what dropped him by two points in one update. I posted earlier that Rasmussen had Trump +1 nationally . . . but Biden still was 88% after they posted that. I wonder if they have a lag to catch up on the latest polls.

A Pennsylvania poll from the Center for American Greatness had Trump +3. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:
3 hours ago, caustic said:

New poll from TX-03 (Dallas suburbs) shows Biden leading by 11, 51-40. Trump won this district by 15 points in 2016. 

These kind of polls in the opposite direction should have been the proverbial canary in 2016. 

On a recent 538 podcast, they said that state and district polls in 2016 showed a much closer race, and that Hillary's polling dip in late October was due to a bunch of state polls.......AND that Hillary's subsequent rise in early November was basically a mirage caused by some national polls which came out just before the election.

They also said that there's a similar disparity in 2020, where many of the district-level polls are showing Biden with a much bigger lead than what the national polls are indicating.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Towery adds “Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”

There are only 49 black respondents, so that's seven people he's projecting from. Study also has only 20 Hispanics.
 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I wouldn't dismiss their poll off hand because of their bias. In the article that accompanies the poll, they make some interesting observations.

Quote

...Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”

Towery adds “Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”

Some of those assertions are verifiable. I wonder if they hold up to scrutiny.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Biden slipped from 88% to 86% basically in one update at 538. Wonder what dropped him by two points in one update. I posted earlier that Rasmussen had Trump +1 nationally . . . but Biden still was 88% after they posted that. I wonder if they have a lag to catch up on the latest polls.

 

1 hour ago, Redwes25 said:

Texas NYtimes poll - 4% by A+ pollster.  Moved texas from 62% to 68% in Trumps direction.  

 

1 hour ago, caustic said:

A Pennsylvania poll from the Center for American Greatness had Trump +3. 

Now they have it at Biden 87% again. What changed this time, how do you find that?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gr00vus said:

Now they have it at Biden 87% again. What changed this time, how do you find that?

I am guessing a new poll in a battleground / swing state came out that helps Biden was released. Other than searching the polls for the individual states I am not sure how to find it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I am guessing a new poll in a battleground / swing state came out that helps Biden was released. Other than searching the polls for the individual states I am not sure how to find it.

I don't think it moving around in the high 80s is really something that is material.  It is likely noise from polls coming in.  If it drops down by like 10 points I think that is a sign of a real trend to be worried about (or happy about depending where you sit).  

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I don't think it moving around in the high 80s is really something that is material.  It is likely noise from polls coming in.  If it drops down by like 10 points I think that is a sign of a real trend to be worried about (or happy about depending where you sit).  

It's like a football team going from -8.5 to -7.5 in the betting. Still the favorite to actually win the game.

Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Towery adds “Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”

There are only 49 black respondents, so that's seven people he's projecting from. Study also has only 20 Hispanics.
 

This is a common mistake.  The base sample base isn't the 7 people who believe something, it's the 49 people who were asked.  But your general point still holds that projecting off of a base of 49 people is a small sample size.  FWIW, a sample of 49 people has a margin of error of +/- 13.8% points...so for the 14% figure quoted (technically 14.3%) we can be 95% confident that the REAL support among African Americans is between .5% and 28.1%!

But don't dismiss it entirely because that falls along a bell curve, so it's more likely to be around 14% than either of the ends.

TLDR: 49 is too small of a sample size to write about...even if a fantasy football chatroom!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

The general trend for future elections will be the West and the Southwest becoming bluer and the Midwest becoming redder, IMO.

Ohio is kind of surprising to me. In recent history, it's been a battleground state ... yet in 2016, Trump 60+% of the vote in 66 of Ohio's 88 counties. He was over 70% in 30 counties.

I mean, yeah, Ohio's bigger cities came out for Hillary, but not all that strongly -- in only 4 counties statewide did she get over 53% of the vote.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:
24 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I don't think it moving around in the high 80s is really something that is material.  It is likely noise from polls coming in.  If it drops down by like 10 points I think that is a sign of a real trend to be worried about (or happy about depending where you sit).  

It's like a football team going from -8.5 to -7.5 in the betting. Still the favorite to actually win the game.

Actually it's more like going from -11.5 to -10.5 and then back up to -11. (NFL spread conversion chart)

To compare with 2016, Hillary went from -11.5 to -3.5, then back up to -6. :oldunsure:

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

This is a common mistake.  The base sample base isn't the 7 people who believe something, it's the 49 people who were asked.

TLDR: 49 is too small of a sample size to write about...even if a fantasy football chatroom!

Yes, that was just some bad writing by me using "projecting" where I did. Point is, this guy is too excited that Trump held on to all seven people.

  • Laughing 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been thinking about the African-American vote.  I've read several times that their turnout is supposed to be higher than 2016.  Even if Trump does a few points better with African-Americans this time, the net difference due to higher turnout could cost Trump additional net votes.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I've been thinking about the African-American vote.  I've read several times that their turnout is supposed to be higher than 2016.  Even if Trump does a few points better with African-Americans this time, the net difference due to higher turnout could cost Trump additional net votes.

But Candace Owens....

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

 Point is, this guy is too excited that Trump held on to all seven people.

Trump should really get those 7 (seven) people to do an ad for him. That would show everyone how popular he is with more than just white people.

Link to post
Share on other sites

He's actually running an ad here for the black vote. Don't remember what was in it other than the Biden "You ain't black" clip. 
On the other side (I don't know who the sponsor is), there's an ad running of Trump's "Where's my African-American?" followed by "We're not your African-Americaans"

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Juxtatarot said:

I've been thinking about the African-American vote.  I've read several times that their turnout is supposed to be higher than 2016.  Even if Trump does a few points better with African-Americans this time, the net difference due to higher turnout could cost Trump additional net votes.

African-American turnout went from 60% (2004) to 66.6% (2012) to 59.6% (2016). If we split the difference and assume a 63% turnout this year, and then also assume that Trump's share goes from 8% to 12% (which would be a higher percentage than G.W. Bush got), then it would still translate to a net gain of around 1.1 million votes for Biden.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated 538 state breakdowns for Biden . . .

99%+: WA, DE, RI, NY, CA, MD, HI, MA, VT, DC, IL, CT, WA
99%: NJ, VA
98%: OR, ME1
97%: NM
96%: CO
94%: MI
92%: MN
91%: NV
90%: ME
89%: WI
87%: NH
84%: PA
78%: NE2
67%: FL
66%: AZ
65%: NC
51%: ME2
49%: IA
47%: GA
42%: OH
33%: TX
(All other states are all but locks for Trump.)

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

My guesses:

Trump: Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania

Biden: Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona

Biden wins, 276 - 262. Wait too close for comfort. My state of Arizona flips and saves the Union.

Oops. I had Colorado red by accident. Final score 285-253. Not as close but still too close.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/rlDZy

If Trump instead gets Michigan, a 269-269 tie. 😲

 

 

Edited by cap'n grunge
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

As I see it, if Biden gets Wisconsin and Michigan (and Trump gets Texas, Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa) -

then Biden only needs Pennsylvania OR Florida OR North Carolina OR Arizona.  That's a much easier road than what Trump faces.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

From a CNN article about the high level of blacks voting:

"So far this fall, African American voters are rushing to the polls at much higher rates than they did four years ago, when Hillary Clinton was on the ballot.

By [last] Tuesday, more than 601,000 Black Americans had voted early in Georgia compared with about 286,240 two weeks before the 2016 election. In Maryland, about 192,775 had voted compared with 18,430. And California had over 303,145 -- up from more than 106,360 two weeks before the election four years ago. That's according to Catalist, a data company that provides analytics to Democrats, academics and progressive advocacy organizations."

This could be Covid fears; it could be enthusiasm.  I expect the latter is certainly a part of it, and that doesn't bode well for Trump.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

As I see it, if Biden gets Wisconsin and Michigan (and Trump gets Texas, Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa) -

then Biden only needs Pennsylvania OR Florida OR North Carolina OR Arizona.  That's a much easier road than what Trump faces.

Under your scenario, if Biden wins MI and WI, you are likely correct that one of FL, PA, or NC would be enough. As an alternative, Biden could win AZ and either ME2 or NE2 and still win (if the other predicted Biden states fall in line).

The only concern is that it’s not so easy to just suggest certain states will fall independently one way or another. Many times there are groups of states that tend to align together. Like last time, being wrong in one state could mean being wrong in several others. The same could hold true will Biden. A better than expected turn out and performance could see him winning several battleground states (and go on to win by a convincing margin).

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, General Malaise said:

Sportsbook will give you +280 for Biden right now to win Texas.

Biden -200 currently to win Penn.  -250 to win Michigan.  NC is as close to even money as I've seen so far.  

I got a bad feeling about this.  :oldunsure:

 

Remember, Trump had to hit PA and Michigan  and Wisconsin and Florida and of course keep Texas to win. That all adds up to around 13%. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NutterButter said:

Are there battleground states that will decided on election night or are they all still going to be counting mail in ballots for a couple of days?   

I bet AZ will be. I posted something in the mail in voting thread but because of the way we’re doing it, we’ll probably have 80% of the votes counted when polls close.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...