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I really think Biden at +235 is a great bet for Texas. I think he is only a slight underdog right now and I can see them being within 1% of each other. I understand that Trump is the favorite, but that is a good return on your bet.
I saw that this morning. I find it concerning. Either they're right and everyone else is wrong, or they deserve much worse than 538's c+ rating. Their Presidential approval rating poll is also significantly out of line with almost all others.
Yeah, I opened a Predictit account this morning and put a little money on Biden in TX. NYT/Siena is releasing their TX poll in an hour which could potentially move things.
I would normally agree, but if its ever going to happen...
The same pollster has the Democratic House candidate leading by 2 points. She's a political newcomer and a child of immigrants.
At the rate Californians are moving from CA to TX, it could happen sooner than you think.
The suburban counties near Travis County (Austin) are weakening for the Republicans. 2016 Trump didn't make it to 47% in Hays County, and only to 51% in Williamson County. Those figures represent significant drop-offs from Romney and McCain's performances.
I don't think early voting matters but I do think heavy voting likely favors Biden. This was discussed some last week in this thread. Someone referenced a study that indicated that heavy voting typically helped the challenger and hurt the incumbent (although how much is still open for debate). I have nothing to hang my hat on, but I think the polls probably show close to an accurate picture / breakdown for repeat voters, but I do think Biden will have a pretty decent advantage for people voting this time that didn't vote last time. As mentioned by several people, that is pretty much meaningless in places like CA and NY . . . winning by another million votes there is irrelevant. But in battleground states, if the "extra voters" break 60/40 for Biden like I think they might, then Biden may carry more toss up states (or ones where DJT might hold a slight lead) than expected.
Texas NYtimes poll - 4% by A+ pollster. Moved texas from 62% to 68% in Trumps direction.
These kind of polls in the opposite direction should have been the proverbial canary in 2016.
On a recent 538 podcast, they said that state and district polls in 2016 showed a much closer race, and that Hillary's polling dip in late October was due to a bunch of state polls.......AND that Hillary's subsequent rise in early November was basically a mirage caused by some national polls which came out just before the election.
Towery adds “Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”
I wouldn't dismiss their poll off hand because of their bias. In the article that accompanies the poll, they make some interesting observations.
Some of those assertions are verifiable. I wonder if they hold up to scrutiny.
Now they have it at Biden 87% again. What changed this time, how do you find that?
I am guessing a new poll in a battleground / swing state came out that helps Biden was released. Other than searching the polls for the individual states I am not sure how to find it.
I don't think it moving around in the high 80s is really something that is material. It is likely noise from polls coming in. If it drops down by like 10 points I think that is a sign of a real trend to be worried about (or happy about depending where you sit).
I think they read @Juxtatarot's post on here that shows that poll is probably garbage and adjusted accordingly.
It's like a football team going from -8.5 to -7.5 in the betting. Still the favorite to actually win the game.
This is a common mistake. The base sample base isn't the 7 people who believe something, it's the 49 people who were asked. But your general point still holds that projecting off of a base of 49 people is a small sample size. FWIW, a sample of 49 people has a margin of error of +/- 13.8% points...so for the 14% figure quoted (technically 14.3%) we can be 95% confident that the REAL support among African Americans is between .5% and 28.1%!
Ohio is kind of surprising to me. In recent history, it's been a battleground state ... yet in 2016, Trump 60+% of the vote in 66 of Ohio's 88 counties. He was over 70% in 30 counties.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
Actually it's more like going from -11.5 to -10.5 and then back up to -11. (NFL spread conversion chart)
Yes, that was just some bad writing by me using "projecting" where I did. Point is, this guy is too excited that Trump held on to all seven people.
Trump should really get those 7 (seven) people to do an ad for him. That would show everyone how popular he is with more than just white people.
African-American turnout went from 60% (2004) to 66.6% (2012) to 59.6% (2016). If we split the difference and assume a 63% turnout this year, and then also assume that Trump's share goes from 8% to 12% (which would be a higher percentage than G.W. Bush got), then it would still translate to a net gain of around 1.1 million votes for Biden.
Under your scenario, if Biden wins MI and WI, you are likely correct that one of FL, PA, or NC would be enough. As an alternative, Biden could win AZ and either ME2 or NE2 and still win (if the other predicted Biden states fall in line).
Remember, Trump had to hit PA and Michigan and Wisconsin and Florida and of course keep Texas to win. That all adds up to around 13%.Sportsbook will give you +280 for Biden right now to win Texas.
Biden -200 currently to win Penn. -250 to win Michigan. NC is as close to even money as I've seen so far.
I got a bad feeling about this.
I bet AZ will be. I posted something in the mail in voting thread but because of the way we’re doing it, we’ll probably have 80% of the votes counted when polls close.
