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WR A.J. Brown, PHI (2 Viewers)

Dr. BD said:
They regressed a lot more than what you're suggesting (2.25 FPT) 

Randy Moss is one of the only WRs I dont have a complete career data set for (because I only went back to 2000), his FPT arc is extremely interesting to look at, and he's a HOF WR... I was curious what his 1998 and 1999 were. He also scored a 2.43 YPT his rookie season. Then he followed it up with 2.09. 2.43 was his most efficient season of his career. He did score 2.41 in 2007, so he would be the only WR in this data set to have more than 1 outlier season. He also was a complete monster. 

Point is, Randy Moss had a hard time doing this twice, and even Randy Moss regressed his 2nd year, even if it was 1/2 than the average. He also had a statistical profile that, IMO, lead to a more sustainable efficiency over his career. 

As I've said repeatedly, I dont think AJB is a slouch. I just dont think hes deserving of a top 10 dynasty ranking. I realize people are excited about him, and I think that level of excitement is an over correction from a 2019 NFL draft hangover. Dynasty WR10 is a bit too high IMO, and if someone values him there, you could make out big time. 

ETA: Brown would do pretty well if he had a 2.09 FPT and 120 targets. Not nearly what you suggest above, but it would be impressive. IMO this is a ceiling. If he can do this, or better, in a run first offense, then I would come down from this argument and agree that he is going to be an exceptionally special talent over the next decade. IMO scoring less than that is a better bet

AETA: my prediction would be 110 targets, 66 receptions, 1122 yards, 8 TDs.
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Who are they, though? Are they names we would associate with a WR1, whether for fantasy or for their own teams? I just don't think you can look at a rookie WR season (ever) and try to compare it to a vet season. There are simply too many other factors that go into the slow(er) development of a rookie in their rookie season. Maybe his rookie year really was a special Randy Moss type rookie season (it wasn't). I'm assuming Juju was on the list of rookies. If right he finished even higher the next season and came out ranked #1 overall WR by many (like me). So....is Juju is on the list as a rookie? Sorry if I missed you mentioning him earlier, I don't remember. 

I can't overstate the importance of the Tannehill splits here, too. That, combined with the nature of a rookie season vs a vet season, are enough to throw this method out, IMO. I also have quite a bit of trepidation about the run first nature of that offense, but I really think his talent and market share are going to win the day here. Plus, by your own projection above, he finishes high enough to maintain his top 10 status that you're asking about.

If I disagree with (part of) your method here, I do at least agree with a central conclusion, which is he will need to maintain a high level of efficiency, which is likely to go down. I think the main counterpoint, which could also be true at the same time, is that his target share is going to be going up more than you think it will. Both of these things could end up true. And as has been stated, he probably has quite a bit of insulation in value due to draft stock, a special (not Moss special) rookie season, and the likelihood he doesn't finish as low as he did last year. WR18 has *got* to be more likely than WR30, no? 

ETA I'll concede this was before I adjusted the PPG metric and saw he would be WR25

 
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Dr. BD said:
Well, for starters with those stats he wouldnt be WR18. Hed be WR25 at 14.1 PPG... which is a way better metric to use when discussing rankings. 

Where would you rank a WR in dynasty after he is WR30 and WR25 in his first two seasons? Would you have him top10? 
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grrrrr, yeah you're right. That undermines my point above a little, too. Not at my projection, but at yours. I still say 110 is light for targets but I agree with looking at PPG.

 
Dr. BD said:
Well, for starters with those stats he wouldnt be WR18. Hed be WR25 at 14.1 PPG... which is a way better metric to use when discussing rankings. 

Where would you rank a WR in dynasty after he is WR30 and WR25 in his first two seasons? Would you have him top10? 
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No its not.  Its just another way to look at things.  Its not "way better".  PPG has its own flaws as well.

You seem pretty concerned about this top 10 dynasty ranking status.  Are you in a league that awards points for that?  I am not.  Tell you what though, if you got a WR who puts up the kind of highlights he does while going for 2200 yards and 16 TDs in his first 2 seasons, you'll have zero issue trading him next year.  Not that you'll want to.

Your whole point is that you should trade him now because he's overvalued, but then you project him to have an even better season next year which will only enhance his value.  This makes no sense.  If he puts up the numbers you expect he'll be one of the hottest players to own.  

 
Vandelay said:
No its not.  Its just another way to look at things.  Its not "way better".  PPG has its own flaws as well.
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It does have flaws, but is far better in general, IMO. End of season ranks have their place, too. For me everything boils down to a preponderance of evidence situation when I make my own decisions on where to rank/draft/start/trade, etc. 

I'm calling myself out here, too, not directed at anyone specifically, but if this is the AJ Brown thread let's not dive too far into meta-metric questions. I'd love to dive into this kind of thing on it's own thread, though, but we go back and forth on this stuff all the time. I think our AJ Brown positions are laid out in enough depth at this point.

Mic drop*

*just kidding it wasn't because I owned this post it was because it was slippery and it fell*

 
barackdhouse said:
It does have flaws, but is far better in general, IMO. End of season ranks have their place, too. For me everything boils down to a preponderance of evidence situation when I make my own decisions on where to rank/draft/start/trade, etc. 

I'm calling myself out here, too, not directed at anyone specifically, but if this is the AJ Brown thread let's not dive too far into meta-metric questions. I'd love to dive into this kind of thing on it's own thread, though, but we go back and forth on this stuff all the time. I think our AJ Brown positions are laid out in enough depth at this point.

Mic drop*

*just kidding it wasn't because I owned this post it was because it was slippery and it fell*
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You are right, no point going any further on this.

 
Dr. BD said:
JuJu was on the list, and he had the exact same FPT as AJB, but JuJu regressed to 1.77 season 2 and 1.62 season 3 with a bad qb. The reason JuJu finished high ranked year 2 was because he went from 79 targets to 166. Which is what I've been saying- expecting a year 2 regression (whatever it may be), AJB will need a substantial increase to the amount of targets to just maintain his dynasty top 10 wr value. I just dont see that happening. 

Tannehill splits are intriguing, but let me ask you- did you factor in his playoff games with Tannehill? Why, when it mattered most, did TEN avoid throwing the ball so much? The fact that they beat some very good teams throwing the ball 15 times is an indicator that they dont need to throw the ball. That kind of volatility in a passing offense isnt going to produce a top 10 wr. Many fantasy GMs are conveniently forgetting AJBs disappearing act in the playoffs.

I appreciate that this is an unpopular take, and I get it. like you said, enough has been said. I figured I was poking a hornet's nest, and that's fine, it's been fun
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Is it possible though that hugely efficient seasons lead to more targets and more defensive attention...reducing efficiency but increasing fantasy points...for talented players. Not for Kenny Stills level guys. I recall discussion about how wasn’t likely for JuJu to get to certain levels of targets while AB was there gobbling them up. And guess what? He was really good so he did. 
 

Playoff stats have issues too though in that you’re always going against a....playoff team. And in his case 2 of those 3 teams had elite pass defenses. 

 
Dr. BD said:
Tannehill splits are intriguing, but let me ask you- did you factor in his playoff games with Tannehill? Why, when it mattered most, did TEN avoid throwing the ball so much? The fact that they beat some very good teams throwing the ball 15 times is an indicator that they dont need to throw the ball. That kind of volatility in a passing offense isnt going to produce a top 10 wr. Many fantasy GMs are conveniently forgetting AJBs disappearing act in the playoffs.
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If you believe they might conduct the 2020 season (please, God, let there be one) the same way they conducted the playoffs, then do you also believe Derrick Henry might get 450 carries? 

 
Dr. BD said:
Depends on their defense. TEN is built to just wait teams out with good defense and running the ball, passing when they have to. If their defense is not very good, I cant see them running the ball as much, which would favor Brown getting more potential for opportunities. But then we are back to Tannehill and if hes any good, and if defenses play the pass more knowing the Titans will have to pass, and how that affects Brown.

I mean which is it- are teams going to stack the box to stop Henry or is the offense going to run less (resulting in less stacked boxes due to passing more)? I've seen both arguments here to say that Brown is going to get more targets... It really cant be both. If TEN passes more, then teams wont be selling out to stop Henry because they have to account for a passing attack. In the end you're left with the talent, which comes back to Tannehill. 

It surprises me that people have such faith in Tannehill, and Vrabel's offense giving fantasy GMs high output. Tannehill seems like 2020s version of Sam Bradford. Somehow tricks teams into paying him and giving him a shot
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450 carries would be more of a long shot than AJB’s efficiency continuing...

 
Dr. BD said:
JuJu was on the list, and he had the exact same FPT as AJB, but JuJu regressed to 1.77 season 2 and 1.62 season 3 with a bad qb. The reason JuJu finished high ranked year 2 was because he went from 79 targets to 166. Which is what I've been saying- expecting a year 2 regression (whatever it may be), AJB will need a substantial increase to the amount of targets to just maintain his dynasty top 10 wr value. I just dont see that happening. 

Tannehill splits are intriguing, but let me ask you- did you factor in his playoff games with Tannehill? Why, when it mattered most, did TEN avoid throwing the ball so much? The fact that they beat some very good teams throwing the ball 15 times is an indicator that they dont need to throw the ball. That kind of volatility in a passing offense isnt going to produce a top 10 wr. Many fantasy GMs are conveniently forgetting AJBs disappearing act in the playoffs.

I appreciate that this is an unpopular take, and I get it. like you said, enough has been said. I figured I was poking a hornet's nest, and that's fine, it's been fun
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Much like I prefer to include week 17 in PPG metrics, I do like to include the playoffs. I contend the Titans know they got overly one dimensional and will open up more. That said any game they have a 2nd half lead it's a good bet they'll pound Henry. 

166 targets made Juju the #1 dynasty WR in many eyes. Nobody here thinks Brown gets 166. Some said 150 I'm saying closer to 120. Leaves lots of meat on the bone for him to maintain top 10. 

I think it's a solid discussion. It really is unique because we all love his talent and ability but what they did/are doing with Henry is special in it's own. Full disclosure I only own Brown in one spot in one of those leagues that disbands after this year. I do have Henry in a ton of spots though.

 
AJB snap share was at 68.48% for the year.  

Julio Jones was 69.52%

DJ Moore 81.76%

Allen Robinson 93.83%

OBJ and Jarvis Landry 95.11% and 93.49%

Amari Cooper 75.38%

Courtland Sutton 91.38%

Kenny Golladay 86.84%

Davante Adams 62.89%

Keenan Allen 87.83%

By comparison for 1st year players in 2019, Metcalf was at 83.59%, McLaurin was 81.28%, Diontae 65.33%, and Deebo was 66.7%.

Sure seems it's very offensive dependent or how crucial they are to their offense.  Julio for example, is a great weapon and other-worldly, but they have other play makers who can carry some load.  OBJ on the other hand likely demands more and is on the field more to help his QB, Matt Ryan doesn't exactly need Julio, I'd wager Baker needs OBJ for help.  Opposite would be true for Lock/Trubisky and Sutton/Robinson.  They are the only weapon so it makes sense they're on the field for 90%+.  

I don't like sifting through data at all, just thought this would help paint a better picture of AJB projection going forward.  Do with it what you will. 

 
Zyphros said:
AJB snap share was at 68.48% for the year.  

Julio Jones was 69.52%

DJ Moore 81.76%

Allen Robinson 93.83%

OBJ and Jarvis Landry 95.11% and 93.49%

Amari Cooper 75.38%

Courtland Sutton 91.38%

Kenny Golladay 86.84%

Davante Adams 62.89%

Keenan Allen 87.83%

By comparison for 1st year players in 2019, Metcalf was at 83.59%, McLaurin was 81.28%, Diontae 65.33%, and Deebo was 66.7%.

Sure seems it's very offensive dependent or how crucial they are to their offense.  Julio for example, is a great weapon and other-worldly, but they have other play makers who can carry some load.  OBJ on the other hand likely demands more and is on the field more to help his QB, Matt Ryan doesn't exactly need Julio, I'd wager Baker needs OBJ for help.  Opposite would be true for Lock/Trubisky and Sutton/Robinson.  They are the only weapon so it makes sense they're on the field for 90%+.  

I don't like sifting through data at all, just thought this would help paint a better picture of AJB projection going forward.  Do with it what you will. 
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Do you have a way to compare his first versus second half of season? Seems like that would paint a better picture of what to expect.

 
Zyphros said:
AJB snap share was at 68.48% for the year.  

Julio Jones was 69.52%

DJ Moore 81.76%

Allen Robinson 93.83%

OBJ and Jarvis Landry 95.11% and 93.49%

Amari Cooper 75.38%

Courtland Sutton 91.38%

Kenny Golladay 86.84%

Davante Adams 62.89%

Keenan Allen 87.83%

By comparison for 1st year players in 2019, Metcalf was at 83.59%, McLaurin was 81.28%, Diontae 65.33%, and Deebo was 66.7%.

Sure seems it's very offensive dependent or how crucial they are to their offense.  Julio for example, is a great weapon and other-worldly, but they have other play makers who can carry some load.  OBJ on the other hand likely demands more and is on the field more to help his QB, Matt Ryan doesn't exactly need Julio, I'd wager Baker needs OBJ for help.  Opposite would be true for Lock/Trubisky and Sutton/Robinson.  They are the only weapon so it makes sense they're on the field for 90%+.  

I don't like sifting through data at all, just thought this would help paint a better picture of AJB projection going forward.  Do with it what you will. 
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I'm wondering if this is meant to be per 16 games or not because the Adams number seems really low unless you take out the games he missed. And we should be taking out the games he or anyone else missed. AJ missed two. Adams missed 4 IIRC. Cooper was banged up and we know Julio comes out often enough.

 
I keep seeing posts wondering whether Tannehill is "this good" as he was very efficient last year and was basically becoming Alex Smith.  And the same folks wondering seem to count it as a negative if he's not as good this year.

I'd argue AJ owners should WANT him to be worse.

If Tannehill can't sustain the efficiency and protect the ball as well, its going to result in Tennessee falling behind in games more and subsequently, more targets to Brown as they chase games.  So if you're not a Tannehill believer, that only bolsters Brown's stats if you ask me.  

The Titans pretty much got to play exactly the way they wanted to in most games last year.  There are a great many factors that produce such a result and its asking a lot to have them all happen again over another season.  Odds are they end up passing more.

 
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Johnny B. Goode said:
This is a bizarre stance. How many top 15 WRs from last year had horrible QBs who couldn’t throw the ball?
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This is hyperbole and not at all what I said.  Ill play anyway though.

Godwin, Kupp, Keenan Allen, ARob, Golladay, Parker, Landry, Woods, Evans, Boyd, Chark, Sutton all had less than desirable QB play as it relates to producing wins in the NFL.  And yet, everyone of those finished in the top 20.

Careful, efficient QB play is a fantasy killer.  It leads to smashing Henry up the guy 30 times while taking the air out of the ball.  If the QB is less efficient and turns it over a bit more, they have to open things up to keep pace.  Its simple game flow.

Jameis is the best possible example of this.  If Tannehill takes one or two steps from Alex Smith land toward Winstonville, AJB will benefit.  Odds are he does.

Not bizarre at all really.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Do you have a way to compare his first versus second half of season? Seems like that would paint a better picture of what to expect.
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barackdhouse said:
I'm wondering if this is meant to be per 16 games or not because the Adams number seems really low unless you take out the games he missed. And we should be taking out the games he or anyone else missed. AJ missed two. Adams missed 4 IIRC. Cooper was banged up and we know Julio comes out often enough.
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It is based on 16 games, I didn't include some other players with lower numbers due to injuries like JuJu (who is arguably one of AJ Browns closest comps), Hilton or Preston Williams who missed a bunch of games each.  Just wanted 1 in there for reference at the top tier level.  

As for snap % through the weeks AJ Brown was averaging a 55% snap share the first 9 weeks, then it jumped to averaging 87% the last 6 weeks. 

 
Zyphros said:
It is based on 16 games, I didn't include some other players with lower numbers due to injuries like JuJu (who is arguably one of AJ Browns closest comps), Hilton or Preston Williams who missed a bunch of games each.  Just wanted 1 in there for reference at the top tier level.  

As for snap % through the weeks AJ Brown was averaging a 55% snap share the first 9 weeks, then it jumped to averaging 87% the last 6 weeks. 
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I would assume this is a little closer to what we can expect going forward. Thanks for the information. Do you mind me asking where you find that?

 
I-ROK said:
That’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for him... :lol:  

Bump NE WRs then I guess. Keenan Allen should shatter records with Tyrod throwing him the ball 
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I guess you missed the post after where 12 of the top 20 WRs last year had mediocre at best quarterbacking.

Dont see any AJ Browns hanging out on the Pat's roster either.

Think a couple people are missing the point.

 
I-ROK said:
I prefer my WRs to play with QBs that can get the ball to him. 
 

Godwin and Evans has a QB who threw for 5000 yards. He finished as one of the top fantasy qbs. His issue was INTs, probably because he couldn’t see. The day Tannehill passes for 5000 yards is the day I eat my sock

Golladay... I believe there was a stat that Stafford was a top 5 QB before getting hurt. Something like that

Kupp and Woods has Goff who was hit or miss, but that offense had volume. Nothing like Tennessee’s offense  

Allen has Rivers, who isn’t a bad QB

Making some very broad generalizations here. Tennessee doesn’t pass, because Tannehill isn’t a good passer. Just like every other team with a below average QB, they will run the ball more. Not pass it more. 

But go ahead and hope for bad play from the guy A.J. Brown depends on getting the ball to him. Hope it works out for you
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Still missing the point.

Obviously he needs to meet a minimum standard of play.  He's got to be able to get his receivers the ball- didn't think I needed to clarify that point, but ok sure.  Yes, he has to clear that bar.

Speaking of broad generalizations...your list.  

Winston is an extreme case, but is exactly my point.  Tannehill's not going to throw for 5k and I've never insinuated he would.  I'm saying him taking a step in that direction, and with increased turnovers which directly impact game script, is good for Brown.

I wasn't aware there was a stat that ranks QBs.  It's a pretty vague statement you're making here but Stafford's 2016 & 2017 don't look much different than Tannehill's 2014 & 2015 in Miami.  Stafford hasn't been *actually* good for several years.

Don't know how many Charger's games you watched last year, but Rivers was godawful.  He was a turnover machine and easily looked like one of the worst passers (setting aside what he does at the line of scrimmage which is excellent) in the league.

You're actually highlighting my point.  You just named three QBs, all with turnover issues, all playing for losing teams, who put up stats and supported top WRs.  For years we talk about how Alex Smith is a great game manager but a fantasy killer, but suggesting Tannehill's receivers would benefit from him not continuing the Smith level of efficiency is some kind of crazy talk?   Now, stay with me here....Tennessee is not going to voluntarily change their offensive approach.  What they did last year worked.  Maybe defenses will take it away, that's one route to more attempts which result in more targets to Brown.  Another way is, maybe Tannehill can't quite sustain the efficiency from last year.  Maybe Tennessee has to chase more games and are forced into a more aggressive style.  Maybe he puts up better stats while being a worse real life quarterback.  It happens all the time.

 
Dr. BD said:
This is a good try to shine up a turd and sell it as a diamond.

If Tannehill plays poorly, the entire offense suffers; AJB doesn't flourish. You're taking a QB on a team that passed dead last in the league last year and using QBs that also played poorly, or on bad teams and saying they are equal...

Pass attempts per game in 2019 per teamrankings.com

LAR: 3rd
TB: 4th
CIN: 6th
MIA: 7th
LAC: 10th
JAX: 12th
CHI: 13th
DET: 16th

CLE: 20th
DEN: 27th
TEN: 32nd

All but 2 of the WRs you mentioned played on teams that finished in the top 50% in pass attempts per game.  AJB's team was last. 

For AJB to overcome bad QB play, pass attempts per game needs to go way up. By about 10 per game. When's the last time TEN passed 36 times per game on average? 2011...

Thanks for proving my point from the last 1-2 pages
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Wrong.

 Here is your statement but with the necessary language added to make it reflect what I'm *actually* doing.

You're taking a QB on a team that passed dead last in the league last year (yes)

and using QBs that also played poorly, or on bad teams and saying they are equal... (just no, all of this)

and illustrating how attempts and targets can be increased by the QB playing less efficiently. (yes)

Let's put it altogether now.

"You're taking a QB on a team that passed dead last in the league last year and illustrating how attempts and targets can be increased by the QB playing less efficiently" (YES)

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Over the last two years if you look at the teams that finished in the bottom 3 in pass attempts for that year, the following statements are true:

  • Every single one of the 6 teams saw an increase in passing attempts the following year
  • Those teams averaged an increase of 90 pass attempts the following year
  • 2 of the 6 finished top 10 in the league in passing attempts the following year, with one of them finishing top 5
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And just a reminder...

Things change and they do so rather quickly.

 
Dr. BD said:
TEN won't pass 36 times a game on average. Which is exactly why AJB's targets won't go sky high, and exactly why his value will drop as an expected drop in efficiency will occur.

Again, thanks for demonstrating how volume is necessary for a WR to finish as one of the top in fantasy, regardless of QB play

Some people think Tannehill can do that, and for them I guess I just can't help them. Tannehill's QB Rating has actually gone UP the less he passed over his career. TEN obviously knows who they have and they aren't going to put him in a position to fail. Especially after committing 3-5 years to him.
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I literally said "Tennessee won't change their offensive approach voluntarily".

They'll have to be forced to.  Either by defenses,  negative game script, or any number of other ways a thing like that happens.

One such way is Tannehill puts them in a less optimal position early in games, more often than he did last year.

This is just one piece of the AJ Brown puzzle, not THE GRANDE CLOSING ARGUMENT.  It's just another way to consider the case.  Nevermind that he could just get a bigger piece of the pie due to being a full time player all season.

 
Dr. BD said:
TEN won't pass 36 times a game on average. Which is exactly why AJB's targets won't go sky high, and exactly why his value will drop as an expected drop in efficiency will occur.

Again, thanks for demonstrating how volume is necessary for a WR to finish as one of the top in fantasy, regardless of QB play

Some people think Tannehill can do that, and for them I guess I just can't help them. Tannehill's QB Rating has actually gone UP the less he passed over his career. TEN obviously knows who they have and they aren't going to put him in a position to fail. Especially after committing 3-5 years to him.
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Tennessee knows who they want to be.  They don't know who they will be.

Jacksonville went into last season with the exact same notion of who they wanted to be.  In the end despite having a rookie 6th round QB that they clearly wanted to limit what they put on his shoulders they still ended up 12th in the NFL in pass attempts.

If the Tennessee defense regresses then they can't just run run run all day if they keep getting behind.  If Henry gets hurt they won't be able to do it.  If the O-line regresses they won't be able to do it.  There are plenty of scenarios where their pass attempts go up significantly.

And Brown is not as far off of the necessary volume to be a top 10 WR as you are implying.  Last year's #2 scoring fantasy WR had 119 targets.  Two other top 10 WRs were also under 120 targets.  120 targets is 7.5 targets per game.  AJB averaged 6.25 targets per game with Ryan Tannehill last season.  So he needs roughly 1 additional target per game to get the same volume that 3 of the top 10 fantasy WRs, including the #2 overall WR.

Again, if Tennessee doesn't run as well, or Henry gets hurt, or the defense doesn't play as well, an extra target per game is really not much.  And that's assuming that the defense doesn't just completely tank in Tennessee like it did in Jacksonville and bump them all the way up near the top 10 in passing attempts.

Again, I am in my shares of AJB for the long haul so I am not conerned if he doesn't have a great year next year, but I think it is far from a foregone conclusion that his value is going to depreciate.

 
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Dr. BD said:
The WR2 last year was just under being an outlier for efficiency. He too stands to see a regression unless he gets more volume. 

Its not just volume, it’s what you do with that volume that is the most important 
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I sure hope Brown figures out how to maximize his volume.  Might get wild.

 
Dr. BD said:
The WR2 last year was just under being an outlier for efficiency. He too stands to see a regression unless he gets more volume. 
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Cooper: 119 targets, 79-1189-8

Golladay: 114 targets, 65-1190-11

Kittle: 120 targets, 85-1053-5

Gallup: 113 targets, 66-1107-6

Evans: 118 targets, 67-1157-8

Waller: 117 targets, 90-1145-3

Chark: 118 targets, 73-1008-8

This is not nearly as rare as you are making it out to be.  That is all just from this year, with target counts that AJB would hit by getting an additional 1 target per game from Tannehill on a team that by the laws of probability will almost certainly pass more this year than last year, possibly by a significant amount.

As a 2nd year receiver, any of those lines would increase AJB's value.

Note that Tyler Lockett is not on this list.  That's because he received too many targets to qualify, despite entering 2019 with a career high of 90 targets on a team that people were even more sure would finish dead last in pass attempts in 2019 than people are about Tennessee in 2020.

 
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Why is Tannehill turning into the Arians version of Jameis Winston?

What am I missing in the fine print here?

I thought the argument was about volume. If it's about volume, I haven't looked at it enough to decide, but the reasoning that Tannehill will produce or have the opportunity to provide more overall volume next year in the offense seems suspect. 

 
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rockaction said:
Why is Tannehill turning into the Arians version of Jameis Winston?

What am I missing in the fine print here?

I thought the argument was about volume. If it's about volume, I haven't looked at it enough to decide, but the reasoning that Tannehill will produce or have the opportunity to provide more overall volume next year in the offense seems suspect. 
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Why?  

I'm not saying he's going to be Jameis.  Dont feel like rehashing it all over again but I definitely never said that.  I actually said he wouldn't.

 
Vandelay said:
Why?  

I'm not saying he's going to be Jameis.  Dont feel like rehashing it all over again but I definitely never said that.  I actually said he wouldn't.
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I'll have to read more clearly. You rationale was losing me about the volume. Let me see if I've rehashed this correctly (this is off of the top of my head). The Titans defense won't be as good (I think you were saying, I could be wrong), Tannehill will have to throw more, therefore he'll have more turnovers because he'll either regress to his career mean or sheer volume will determine it, and that these turnovers will lead to even more increased volume (presumably because they'll be behind or something like that).

Is that a correct restatement or should I go back and read it?

 
rockaction said:
I'll have to read more clearly. You rationale was losing me about the volume. Let me see if I've rehashed this correctly (this is off of the top of my head). The Titans defense won't be as good (I think you were saying, I could be wrong), Tannehill will have to throw more, therefore he'll have more turnovers because he'll either regress to his career mean or sheer volume will determine it, and that these turnovers will lead to even more increased volume (presumably because they'll be behind or something like that).

Is that a correct restatement or should I go back and read it?
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Eh not really.  You're combining a bit of mine with some of FreeBaGeL's.

 
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Vandelay said:
Eh not really.  You're combining a bit of mine with some of FreeBaGeL's.
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Okay. I'll go back and read it. That's not to prejudge, I thought that's what the argument was which is why I'm sort of clarifying it before reacting too strongly one way or the other. I'll read it.

 
Vandelay said:
This is hyperbole and not at all what I said.  Ill play anyway though.

Godwin, Kupp, Keenan Allen, ARob, Golladay, Parker, Landry, Woods, Evans, Boyd, Chark, Sutton all had less than desirable QB play as it relates to producing wins in the NFL.  And yet, everyone of those finished in the top 20.

Careful, efficient QB play is a fantasy killer.  It leads to smashing Henry up the guy 30 times while taking the air out of the ball.  If the QB is less efficient and turns it over a bit more, they have to open things up to keep pace.  Its simple game flow.

Jameis is the best possible example of this.  If Tannehill takes one or two steps from Alex Smith land toward Winstonville, AJB will benefit.  Odds are he does.

Not bizarre at all really.
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I see your point about about less than desirable QB play and the players that thrived without it. But they were all target hogs on bad teams. Every one of them.

Careful, efficient QB is a fantasy killer (I can see your point if that means deferring to the running game, but that's not what you're literally saying).

As for the bolded, I guess I can see how inefficiencies could theoretically lead to volume. But I'd imagine inefficiencies often result in incompletions, 3-and-outs, and picks, which are no bueno for fantasy either.

I guess I don't see how inefficiencies lead to volume, though. I guess if you're playing catch-up all the time, then yes. And game script will change given the quarterback's efficiency.

But I'm more of the belief that coaches and game scripts favor efficient winners for the most part because you have the ball to score with and you're not playing into a defense's teeth when they know what you have to do once you get down. Blitzing and zones in the secondary, likely. Winners and efficient offenses score more fantasy points than those that aren't.

I don't think Winston is all-too helpful of a comparison because his year last year was sui generis. He played for a coach that loves to air it out -- and deep, which is so rare these days -- and he himself loves to air it out. So it was a perfect storm, really. 

 
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He def reminded me of TO with how he ran after the catch (or run!). 
 

The stance that an admittedly really really good player as a rookie won’t be as good for fantasy in the future and characterizing thinking that he will be as betting against the house is really off IMO. Especially when the most relevant chunk of the data is Kenny Stills (who he’s nothing like), Lee Evans (almost 20 years ago, who he’s nothing like), and Juju who was a fantasy stud in year 2. And yes he got enormous volume- volume people didn’t think he would get with AB in town. 

 
I want my fantasy players on a team with a good run defense and an awful pass defense. I have no idea if the stats back that up but I’d imagine they do. I’ll respectfully disagree with Mr. Vandelay about wanting Tannehill to be less efficient. The Titans have proven that if they’re getting bad Qb play they will run the heck out f the ball and play defense. Even with Tannehill on a roll last year they did that when they could in the playoffs. I will agree though that a couple pick 6’s to put the Titans in a nice early hole every week would be a good thing. But ultimately we want the Titans defense to fall apart and Tannehill to be good.

 
rockaction said:
I see your point about about less than desirable QB play and the players that thrived without it. But they were all target hogs on bad teams. Every one of them.

Thats pretty much the point though.  The heavier targets are a result of so-so QB play.  Those teams weren't running out the clock in the 2md half, they were playing catchup or in a back and forth.

Careful, efficient QB is a fantasy killer (I can see your point if that means deferring to the running game, but that's not what you're literally saying).

Maybe I didn't spell it out exactly but this is what I'm saying.  The Titans are a run team and efficient QB play let's them stay in that model.  If it breaks...well, you can't just pound Henry anymore.

As for the bolded, I guess I can see how inefficiencies could theoretically lead to volume. But I'd imagine inefficiencies often result in incompletions, 3-and-outs, and picks, which are no bueno for fantasy either.

Earlier in the game, I agree.  Garbage time is HUGE for fantasy points though and it favors the trailing team.  We all know this.  Happens literally every single Sunday but its easy to forget in May.

I guess I don't see how inefficiencies lead to volume, though. I guess if you're playing catch-up all the time, then yes. And game script will change given the quarterback's efficiency.

Yes.

But I'm more of the belief that coaches and game scripts favor efficient winners for the most part because you have the ball to score with and you're not playing into a defense's teeth when they know what you have to do once you get down. Blitzing and zones in the secondary, likely. Winners and efficient offenses score more fantasy points than those that aren't.

I'll take a legitimately prolific offense any day over what I'm describing, but defenses start playing soft once you are protecting leads in the 4th as noted above.

I don't think Winston is all-too helpful of a comparison because his year last year was sui generis. He played for a coach that loves to air it out -- and deep, which is so rare these days -- and he himself loves to air it out. So it was a perfect storm, really. 

To be fair, I called him an extreme example and only hypothesized on Tannehill taking steps in that direction.  He is not a comp, but a caricature of what I'm describing.
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Thanks for re-reading, Rock.  I gave my thoughts on your reply in bold above.  

All I'm saying is its a good recipe for production and there are a LOT of factors that could force Tennessee into a big jump in pass attempts.  This is merely one of them.

 
Vandelay said:
Thanks for re-reading, Rock.  I gave my thoughts on your reply in bold above.  

All I'm saying is its a good recipe for production and there are a LOT of factors that could force Tennessee into a big jump in pass attempts.  This is merely one of them.
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Thanks for your time as well, Vandelay. I don't think we agree, but at least the basic reasoning is fleshed out and I see the framework behind the points (especially about garbage time. A-Rob killed it in garbage time this year for the Bears, who had plenty of catching up to do and often) you're making. 

 
rockaction said:
Thanks for your time as well, Vandelay. I don't think we agree, but at least the basic reasoning is fleshed out and I see the framework behind the points (especially about garbage time. A-Rob killed it in garbage time this year for the Bears, who had plenty of catching up to do and often) you're making. 
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cool.  If you play daily fantasy and really dive into single game analysis, this will all sound very familiar.  I'm just applying it in broader strokes to a dynasty season.

 
Studs get targets. Give me some alpha wr1s who languished as low end fantasy wr2s for their careers because they didn’t get enough targets. The AJB dynasty wr top 10 hype is built around him looking like a flat out stud last year. If he’s not a fantasy stud for a large stretch of his career then he wasn’t good enough. I don’t think it will be because he isn’t fed targets during his career. Or give me some guys that had that happen to them.

 
Cobbler1 said:
Studs get targets. Give me some alpha wr1s who languished as low end fantasy wr2s for their careers because they didn’t get enough targets. The AJB dynasty wr top 10 hype is built around him looking like a flat out stud last year. If he’s not a fantasy stud for a large stretch of his career then he wasn’t good enough. I don’t think it will be because he isn’t fed targets during his career. Or give me some guys that had that happen to them.
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I think that's more of a redraft problem, actually. Seems like guys that earn their targets wind up getting them as the years go on. I agree with this point, to a degree. I'm sure there are some, though, that have been stuck in bad situations. DeVante Parker and Corey Davis come immediately to mind. (I like both of those guys, so YMMV). 

 
rockaction said:
I think that's more of a redraft problem, actually. Seems like guys that earn their targets wind up getting them as the years go on. I agree with this point, to a degree. I'm sure there are some, though, that have been stuck in bad situations. DeVante Parker and Corey Davis come immediately to mind. (I like both of those guys, so YMMV). 
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Good names and yes def more of a redraft problem. The book has yet to be written on Corey Davis, I am also a huge fan. Year 1 hurt, year 2 just dreadful Qb play and a big part of the reason we don’t want Tannehill to be bad although it’s a long drop to get to Gabbert/hurt Mariota levels, year 3 Davis is out alpha-ed by AJB. The one year he was a healthy top dog he saw 112 targets, again bogged down with terrible qb play. Was big on Parker too and again lots of story left to write. And there’s the Gase factor. He can hold down anyone I’ll concede that point. Parker did see 128 targets last year and a 120 target pace in year 3. Lots of injuries his first couple years too IIRC.

 
You can say what you want about Corey Davis, but a rookie came in last year and showed the league more in a season than we have seen in Corey’s career. AJ is an alpha dog, Corey is a solid contributor who has moments. Davis also is a good run blocker which makes him useful. He just doesn’t have the top dog mentality. Poster “Bri” who makes a lot of great noise about the Titans has always pointed out CD has issues with his route running. I think he termed it “patty-caking” in his route instead of taking to the defender. You would think if he was going to change something it would have happened by now. AJ joins the team and throws up a 100 yards game one with Mariota....then continues an incredible highlight reel season showing many elite qualities you drool over as a dynasty holder. Yes, hopefully the volume goes up. Either way, water finds it’s level at some point. You have to score points to win in the NFL and eventually someone will realize getting the ball in AJ’s hands is a good way to score points.

 
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