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***Official 2020 Election General***


hagmania

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4 minutes ago, Sammy3469 said:

Nate Cohn's is tweeting that PA is going to end up 2%+ for Biden.  At this point it's a race to see if Biden gets into the lead before some judge tells them to stop counting.

If PA ends up with Biden winning with a margin of more than 1%, like MI, that reduces Trump's options for recounts.  That's particularly meaningful for PA, which had such a significant increase in mail-in voting and the longest delays in getting those votes counted.  Trump will be able to call for a recount in WI and (if he loses them:) GA and NV.  But if PA goes for Biden ...gaining WI, GA, and NV via recounts (very unlikely) still leaves Biden the winner.  

It's starting to feel like Biden could end up with 306 EVs and a massive lead in the popular vote.  

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8 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

I am legitimately worried about what Trump will do in his lame duck months, if that's indeed where we are headed. 

Everyone who actually needs to have a career after him will abandon him and he'll lash out. Its going to be ugly 

And his staunch supporters worry me. The protesters in Detroit were interviewed and one said he will accept the election results that Trump and James tell them. He said he doesn’t trust Fox News. 

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1 minute ago, NutterButter said:

What's going on with North Carolina?

I think their laws say they can accept ballots in the mail for a few more days and said they won’t release more info until that date has passed.

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Of the 45 US Presidents, only 10 lost reelection when they attempted it:

  1. John Adams - Washington's VP lost after one term to Thomas Jefferson.
  2. John Quincy Adams - the next three Presidents served two terms, until John's son lost his bid for reelection in 1832 to Andrew Jackson.
  3. Martin Van Buren {flashes 8 gang sign} lost in 1840 to William Henry Harrison, who died a month after his inauguration. 
  4. Grover Cleveland proved losing a reelection doesn't preclude a second term. Cleveland was the 22nd and the 24th president of the United States, after he won both the 1884 and 1892 elections. He won the popular vote in 1888, but lost the election to the Benjamin Harrison. The 1892 election was also tight, Cleveland defeated Harrison, to win back the presidency
  5. Benjamin Harrison (SEE ABOVE)
  6. William Howard Taft lost the 1912 election to Wilson to become the sixth sitting President to lose a reelection.
  7. Herbert Hoover presided over the stock market crash and the beginning of the Recession, losing to FDR in 1932.
  8. Gerald Ford not only lost as a sitting President, he is the only officeholder to have never been elected (succeeded Nixon after he resigned.)
  9. Jimmy Carter was a single term President beset by a poor economy, dwindling military power, the Iran Hostage Crisis, and what could be fairly termed a general national malaise. He was soundly beaten in the 1980 election.
  10. George Herbert Walker Bush - Reagan's VP for 8 years presided over a wildly popular coalition war with Iraq. Then the economy cratered.

It is a rare thing for a sitting President to go out a loser. It's only happened once in the last 40 years, the longest stretch since 1932-1976.

Edited by BobbyLayne
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15 minutes ago, Sammy3469 said:

Nate Cohn's is tweeting that PA is going to end up 2%+ for Biden.  At this point it's a race to see if Biden gets into the lead before some judge tells them to stop counting.

2% is 130K votes.  I think this will be a plus/minus 25K votes.  It's going to be close.

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27 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

His behavior between now and then if he loses will be utterly unpredictable as his party works to ineffectively but obviously distance themselves from him.

 

This is the episode right before the finale and I have no idea how it is all going to end.  

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6 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Maybe this is why they've called Arizona?

They are showing 99% of precincts reported.  Total votes of 2,794,396 and the total of the 3 shown is 2,766,900. 

That only leaves ~30K votes left which isn't enough for Trump to catch up.

I think that's directly from Arizona itself.

Perhaps this is where the NYT got their 98% number.  It's very strange that they have been called, there's been no updates today, and that's on their official site yet no one is picking that up or talking about it that I've seen with a few searches.

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13 minutes ago, NutterButter said:

What's going on with North Carolina?

Good question!  We seemed to have let them slide.  They're at 94% count with Biden down 77,000.  If Biden takes 61% of the remaining 344,000, he could pick up NC, too.

ETA: This is from the A/P-Google link.  Not sure why this remaining count differs so much from what @Anarchy99 posts below.  I used a remaining 6% on 5.3 M votes to date.

Edited by tri-man 47
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19 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

I am legitimately worried about what Trump will do in his lame duck months, if that's indeed where we are headed. 

Everyone who actually needs to have a career after him will abandon him and he'll lash out. Its going to be ugly 

What are some of his options? Or could we not even guess because he is so crazy??

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17 minutes ago, Sammy3469 said:

Nate Cohn's is tweeting that PA is going to end up 2%+ for Biden.  At this point it's a race to see if Biden gets into the lead before some judge tells them to stop counting.

I've mostly just followed this thread so I'm not privy to precise trends........but a 2% win seems pretty far fetched to me. Maybe he means 0.2%?

My gut feels like PA stays with Trump but GA flips to Biden.

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20 minutes ago, -fish- said:

He didn't even get this right.   He's suing Michigan about the observers, not Pennsylvania.   

He's also using that in PA, claiming the counting of the mail-in ballots in Philly isn't "transparent enough", even though it's being live-streamed.

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6 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Gerald Ford not only lost as a sitting President, he is the only officeholder to have never been elected (succeeded Nixon after he resigned.)

True story: My uncle used to play with Ford when they were kids in Grand Rapids.  One thing they used to do was jump off of the garage.  After the bumbling Ford became President, some news agency contacted my uncle for some local color about Ford as a child.  My uncle left out the above from his narrative.

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9 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Of the 45 US Presidents, only 10 lost reelection when they attempted it:

  1. John Adams - Washington's VP lost after one term to Thomas Jefferson.
  2. John Quincy Adams - the next three Presidents served two terms, until John's son lost his bid for reelection in 1832 to Andrew Jackson.
  3. Martin Van Buren {flashes 8 gang sign} lost in 1840 to William Henry Harrison, who died a month after his inauguration. 
  4. Grover Cleveland proved losing a reelection doesn't preclude a second term. Cleveland was the 22nd and the 24th president of the United States, after he won both the 1884 and 1892 elections. He won the popular vote in 1888, but lost the election to the Benjamin Harrison. The 1892 election was also tight, Cleveland defeated Harrison, to win back the presidency
  5. Benjamin Harrison (SEE ABOVE)
  6. William Howard Taft lost the 1912 election to Wilson to become the sixth sitting President to lose a reelection.
  7. Herbert Hoover presided over the stock market crash and the beginning of the Recession, losing to FDR in 1932.
  8. Gerald Ford not only lost as a sitting President, he is the only officeholder to have never been elected (succeeded Nixon after he resigned.)
  9. Jimmy Carter was a single term President beset by a poor economy, dwindling military power, the Iran Hostage Crisis, and what could be fairly termed a general national malaise. He was soundly beaten in the 1980 election.
  10. George Herbert Walker Bush - Reagan's VP for 8 years presided over a wildly popular coalition war with Iraq. Then the economy cratered.

It is a rare thing for a sitting President to go out a loser. It's only happened once in the last 40 years, the longest stretch since 1932-1976.

And several of those involved a historic push by a 3rd Party candidate 

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

LINK

They say they have 117,000 outstanding ballots left to count. But there may still be some provisional ballots left. Trump is up 77,000 votes. That would be tough for Biden to overcome if the 117K number is accurate. 

That can't be right.  It shows 94% reporting, which would mean close to 350K votes still out. 

That means he needs about 61-62% of those votes.

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13 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Maybe this is why they've called Arizona?

They are showing 99% of precincts reported.  Total votes of 2,794,396 and the total of the 3 shown is 2,766,900. 

That only leaves ~30K votes left which isn't enough for Trump to catch up.

I think that's directly from Arizona itself.

Been like that all day, didn't know what to make of it. My guess is that 99% reporting is precincts count of votes cast in person yesterday. I could be wrong.

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Just now, gianmarco said:

That can't be right.  It shows 94% reporting, which would mean close to 350K votes still out. 

That means he needs about 61-62% of those votes.

I believe they have the 117K still to count and then another 350K (or so) that if postmarked by yesterday can still be returned and counted.  

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4 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

True story: My uncle used to play with Ford when they were kids in Grand Rapids.  One thing they used to do was jump off of the garage.  After the bumbling Ford became President, some news agency contacted my uncle for some local color about Ford as a child.  My uncle left out the above from his narrative.

hehe

Gerry's a hero in my family. He was out Congressman for 25 years. One of my great Uncles received a handwritten note from Representative Ford when he returned from Korea where he was seriously wounded.

I'm just about the only progressive in my family. West Michigan is as Red as they come, often vote 80-90% for Rs. Last D to carry my home county was George McClellan in 1864. 

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1 minute ago, BobbyLayne said:

hehe

Gerry's a hero in my family. He was out Congressman for 25 years. One of my great Uncles received a handwritten note from Representative Ford when he returned from Korea where he was seriously wounded.

I'm just about the only progressive in my family. West Michigan is as Red as they come, often vote 80-90% for Rs. Last D to carry my home county was George McClellan in 1864. 

Being from GR, no wonder I was an unquestioning R for most of my life.  I voted 3rd party (the Mormon guy) in 2016, so Biden was my first D presidential vote!

As you might have seen from a few posts, I was a classmate at Calvin of Betsy Prince DeVos, and I grew up (church and school) with the DeVos and VanAndel families.  My mom actually dated Jay VanAndel for a bit when she was at Calvin. Very disappointed in Betsy, but I will say the DeVos and VanAndel families have always been wonderful people. 

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Just now, tri-man 47 said:

Being from GR, no wonder I was an unquestioning R for most of my life.  I voted 3rd party (the Mormon guy) in 2016, so Biden was my first D presidential vote!

As you might have seen from a few posts, I was a classmate at Calvin of Betsy Prince DeVos, and I grew up (church and school) with the DeVos and VanAndel families.  My mom actually dated Jay VanAndel for a bit when she was at Calvin. Very disappointed in Betsy, but I will say the DeVos and VanAndel families have always been wonderful people. 

Very likely we’re one or two degrees from one another. Tons of friends who went to Calvin and I’ve been active in west Michigan Reformed churches for 40 years.

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48 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

260K in PA (just melting away)

Down to 240K and still only 88% reporting.

I'm thinking this may not even end up being close.  I don't think there's much of a question at this point that Biden takes PA.  It's by how much.

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Just now, gianmarco said:

Down to 240K and still only 88% reporting.

I'm thinking this may not even end up being close.  I don't think there's much of a question at this point that Biden takes PA.  It's by how much.

should probably stop counting that eh

:shrug:

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20 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

LINK

They say they have 117,000 outstanding ballots left to count. But there may still be some provisional ballots left. Trump is up 77,000 votes. That would be tough for Biden to overcome if the 117K number is accurate. 

NC counts votes if post marked by Election Day. No one knows how many of those exist but it is possible if there ends up being a lot them. 

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27 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Gerald Ford not only lost as a sitting President, he is the only officeholder to have never been elected (succeeded Nixon after he resigned.)

Ford also didn't get elected to the Vice President position either

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45 minutes ago, Cold Dead Hands said:

He already built a fence around the White House. I think it is time for a new presidential residence. Disconnect the phone and the Button and just let him believe he is President for the next 4 years. We can just call it the first chapter of his post-presidency incarceration.

Also set up a new Twitter account for him, but use Creed's Blog from the Office as the design inspiration.

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@CourtneyDBryant

BREAKING: Trump campaign files lawsuit in Georgia, seeking to pause the vote count in key battleground state, AP reports.

 

 

@JDiamond1

"We're gonna finish tonight," Fulton County Elections Director says of vote counting in this key Georgia Democratic stronghold

Edited by Soulfly3
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8 minutes ago, Penguin said:

Ford also didn't get elected to the Vice President position either

Really good podcast on Spiro Agnew a few years back. ‘twas amazing.

I was young, I had forgotten how corrupt he was. Was getting kickbacks as MD Gov & just keep the slush payments going after he moved to the Blair House.

:lol:

Bag Man

7-past podcast series on the criminal enterprise ph Vice President Spiro Agnew

Edited by BobbyLayne
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