2021 Mock Draft 2nd attempt on 2/1 - WITH TRADES!!

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

1. NY Jets - Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson - Jets should not trade out of this pick even for the proverbial "all the tea in China".

2. Jacksonville - Justin Fields QB Ohio St. - They could entertain a trade out if they get a haul, but probably shouldn't. 

3. Cincinnati - Penei Sewell OT Oregon - If this isn't the pick, Burrow should retire...and sue.

4. LAC - Micah Parsons LB PSU - This is where the fun begins. Their defense is half young, half old. An influx at this position (and a new coach) could pay quick dividends.

5. Dallas - Kyle Pitts TE Florida - Because Jerry can't possibly help himself here with visions of Witten dancing in his head

6. Carolina - Zach Wilson QB BYU - Bridgewater is a great story but is merely adequate and will be on year two of a three year contract.

7. Atlanta - Gregory Rosseau DE Miami FL - If at first you don't succeed...or second...or third

8. Miami - Devonta Smith WR Alabama - Queue up the Peaches & Herb.

9. Philadelphia - Patrick Surtain II CB Alabama - Queue up the Average White Band.

10. NY Giants - Ja'Marr Chase WR LSU - Their corps (note the spelling, please) needs a shot in the arm.

11. Detroit - Kwitty Paye DE Michigan
12. San Francisco - Caleb Farley CB Va. Tech
13. Denver - Dylan Moses LB Alabama
14. Minnesota - Rashawn Slater OL Northwestern 
15. Chicago - Trey Lance QB NDSU
16. New England - Mac Jones QB Alabama
17. Las Vegas - Patrick Jones II Edge Pitt
18. Baltimore - Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota
19. Washington - Jalen Waddle WR Alabama
20. Arizona - Wyatt Davis OG Ohio St.
21. Miami - Creed Humphrey OL Oklahoma
22. Tampa Bay - Kyle Trask QB Florida
23. Indianapolis - Christian Darrisaw OT Va. Tech
24. Cleveland - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame
25. NY Jets - Travis Etienne RB Clemson
26. Jacksonville - Carlos Basham Jr. Edge Wake Forest
27. Tennessee - Christian Barmore DT Alabama
28. Buffalo - Derion Kendrick CB Clemson
29. Green Bay - Jalen Twyman DL Pitt
30. Pittsburgh - Najee Harris RB Alabama
31. New Orleans - Nick Bolton LB Missouri 
32. Kansas City - Samuel Cosmi OL Texas

33. NY Jets - Joseph Ossai DE/OLB Texas
34. Jacksonville - Jevon Holland S Oregon
35. Cincinnati - Quincy Roche DE Miami
36. Carolina - Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina
37. Atlanta - Trevon Moehrig S TCU
38. Miami - Jayson Oweh Edge PSU
39. Dallas - Shaun Wade CB Ohio St
40. Philadelphia - Jalen Mayfield OL Michigan
41. LAC - Deonte Brown OL Alabama
42. Detroit - Terrace Marshall Jr. WR LSU

Edited February 1 by Andy Dufresne

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

Some fun mock draft sites (where you do your own mock drafting).

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/ - I like this one because it's fast.

https://first-pick.com/Default.aspx - Their scoring system is stupid. Don't let it affect your fun.

https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/how.php - Full of ads now and kind of slow. But there are several different ranking boards you can use and get different results. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Andy Dufresne

[-OZ- 8,342]

On 12/18/2020 at 11:28 AM, Andy Dufresne said:

 

15. Chicago - Trey Lance QB NDSU
16. New England - Mac Jones QB Alabama
22. Tampa Bay - Kyle Trask QB Florida
23. Indianapolis - Christian Darrisaw OT Va. Tech
 

Not bad, and I get if you were avoiding trades. But I think tampa and Indy will target Jones, with one of them trading up to get him.  Lance has talent for sure, but I'm not sold on him over Jones.

Edited December 20, 2020 by -OZ-

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

I don't watch much college ball - I more consolidate what I read.

But in this SEC championship game I've watched for about a quarter, Mac Jones, Najee, and Smith all look like the real deal. 

I think Harris is probably the #1 dynasty pick.

[Alex P Keaton 4,298]

Like to see the Packers picking a DL.  Weird that they aren’t picking at #32 though.  

[Boston 3,207]

10 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I don't watch much college ball - I more consolidate what I read.

But in this SEC championship game I've watched for about a quarter, Mac Jones, Najee, and Smith all look like the real deal. 

I think Harris is probably the #1 dynasty pick.

They are the real deal...I am all in on Harris...total package...checks every box...great combo of size and three down ability.

[Bracie Smathers 3,782]

I didn't see this thread the first time but was wondering how the top of the draft was looking.

Here's the order of the top-20 picks with their mock of the top-12 picks, go to the link for the full order/mock

Full 2021 NFL Draft Order

1st Round

• 1 Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence QB | Clemson 6'6" 220 lbs
• 2 NY Jets - Justin Fields QB | Ohio State 6'3" 228 lbs
• 3 Miami  HOU - Penei Sewell OT | Oregon 6'6" 325 lbs
• 4 Atlanta - Micah Parsons OLB/ILB | Penn State 6'3" 244 lbs
• 5 Cincinnati - Ja'Marr Chase WR | LSU 6'1" 200 lbs
• 6 Philadelphia - Gregory Rousseau EDGE | Miami 6'6" 251 lbs
• 7 Detroit - Devonta Smith WR | Alabama 6'1" 175 lbs
• 8 NY Giants - Patrick Surtain II CB | Alabama 6'2" 203 lbs
• 9 Carolina - Zach Wilson QB | BYU 6'3" 210 lbs
• 10 Denver - Trey Lance QB | North Dakota State 6'4" 226 lbs
• 11 Dallas - Caleb Farley CB | Virginia Tech 6'2" 207 lbs
• 12 LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater OT | Northwestern 6'3" 305 lbs
• 13 Minnesota 
• 14 San Francisco
• 15 New England
• 16 Las Vegas
• 17 Arizona
• 18 Indianapolis
• 19 Washington
• 20 Chicago

2021 NFL Mock Draft

[Gatorman 130]

With the dolphins likely having a top 5 pick, I’d love to see them trade down to a team that wants a qb, but getting the best lineman in the draft (or best lb) is pretty good too. 

[SoBeDad 2,337]

Tua threw exactly one pass in college that traveled over 50 years and it was an INT. PFF had Tua rated highly for accuracy, decision making and pocket presence. But concerns about arm strength and a caveat that "he was surrounded by one of the most absurd collections of talent in college football history." Miami drafting at 3 or 4 needs to seriously consider a QB, because it's more challenging to get a collection of talent in the NFL than in Tuscaloosa. 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-tua-tagovailoa-is-every-bit-a-franchise-qb-prospect

[kodycutter 968]

I like Surtain at 8, but man drafting a CB in the first round has not worked well recently (Eli Apple, DeAndre Baker).     My wish list is one of Parsons, Chase, Smith, Surtain.

[=Smackdown= 748]

56 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

I didn't see this thread the first time but was wondering how the top of the draft was looking.

Here's the order of the top-20 picks with their mock of the top-12 picks, go to the link for the full order/mock

Full 2021 NFL Draft Order

1st Round

• 1 Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence QB | Clemson 6'6" 220 lbs
• 2 NY Jets - Justin Fields QB | Ohio State 6'3" 228 lbs
• 3 Miami  HOU - Penei Sewell OT | Oregon 6'6" 325 lbs

Oh man

[Bracie Smathers 3,782]

6 minutes ago, kodycutter said:

I like Surtain at 8, but man drafting a CB in the first round has not worked well recently (Eli Apple, DeAndre Baker).     My wish list is one of Parsons, Chase, Smith, Surtain.

I like Suritain too and love the idea of pairing him with Bradberry.  THAT would be fantastic.  

Draft is a long ways away but of this very-early mock, I like and am most intrigued by that pick. 

[-OZ- 8,342]

18 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Tua threw exactly one pass in college that traveled over 50 years and it was an INT. PFF had Tua rated highly for accuracy, decision making and pocket presence. But concerns about arm strength and a caveat that "he was surrounded by one of the most absurd collections of talent in college football history." Miami drafting at 3 or 4 needs to seriously consider a QB, because it's more challenging to get a collection of talent in the NFL than in Tuscaloosa. 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-tua-tagovailoa-is-every-bit-a-franchise-qb-prospect

There is literally no chance of miami drafting a QB at the top of the draft this year. 

[-OZ- 8,342]

On 12/18/2020 at 11:28 AM, Andy Dufresne said:

 

27. Tennessee - Christian Barmore DT Alabama

29. Green Bay - Jalen Twyman DL Pitt

33. NY Jets - Joseph Ossai DE/OLB Texas
 

I like the barmore pick, pairing him with simmons should be fun.  I know nothing about twyman, but if either he or ossai can provide a pass rush, they absolutely must take one of these 3. 

[-OZ- 8,342]

42 minutes ago, Gatorman said:

With the dolphins likely having a top 5 pick,

Man, houston made some horrendous trades lately. 

[Payne 572]

With a new GM coming to town, don't sleep on the Lions drafting Wilson or Jones.

[SoBeDad 2,337]

43 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

There is literally no chance of miami drafting a QB at the top of the draft this year. 

I think you're right. If the Jets don't take Sewell, he's the likely pick for Miami.

BTW, "Tagovailoa finished PFF’s first review of the game with the lowest grade among all offensive players. He completed just 17-of-22 passes for 94 yards, one touchdown and took three sacks before being replaced by Fitzpatrick late in the game."

And behind the same line with the same weapons, Fitzpatrick was great. Tua should get 2 more chances to show if he's a franchise QB.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2020-week-16-pff-refocused-miami-dolphins-26-las-vegas-raiders-25

[-OZ- 8,342]

35 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

I think you're right. If the Jets don't take Sewell, he's the likely pick for Miami.

BTW, "Tagovailoa finished PFF’s first review of the game with the lowest grade among all offensive players. He completed just 17-of-22 passes for 94 yards, one touchdown and took three sacks before being replaced by Fitzpatrick late in the game."

And behind the same line with the same weapons, Fitzpatrick was great. Tua should get 2 more chances to show if he's a franchise QB.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2020-week-16-pff-refocused-miami-dolphins-26-las-vegas-raiders-25

We'll just disagree here. He needs to develop into the playbook more, and he'll continue to develop. The rookie QB has thrown 2 interceptions this year, along with 10 TDs. He has the lowest int% in the league and is 6-2. Obviously that's not all him and he's been more of a game manager than franchise QB, but for a rookie that's not bad. 

He won't be another Mahomes, Rodgers, etc. But I firmly believe he can be a super bowl winning QB. The starting job is his next year and I'd bet on him starting in 2022, barring injury.

[-OZ- 8,342]

56 minutes ago, Payne said:

With a new GM coming to town, don't sleep on the Lions drafting Wilson or Jones.

Yes please. And trade Stafford! 

(Mostly because i want him to have a chance to win big) 

It's hard to trade a franchise QB and it probably won't happen, but if he were to play for the Patriots, 49ers, Bears, or Washington, those teams become really strong (IMO)

Edited December 28, 2020 by -OZ-

[higgins 1,170]

9 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Yes please. And trade Stafford! 

(Mostly because i want him to have a chance to win big) 

It's hard to trade a franchise QB and it probably won't happen, but if he were to play for the Patriots, 49ers, Bears, or Washington, those teams become really strong (IMO)

On that subject, here's all teams' current projected 2021 cap space which may indicate their (in)ability to fit Stafford under their cap....

 

1 Jacksonville Jaguars $84,433,071

2 New York Jets $81,656,074

3 New England Patriots $72,186,508

4 Indianapolis Colts $66,761,076

5 Washington Football Team $49,880,689

6 Cincinnati Bengals $41,306,395

7 Miami Dolphins $35,643,153

8 Los Angeles Chargers $33,311,309

9 Dallas Cowboys $33,204,506

10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers $31,505,224

11 Baltimore Ravens $26,334,415

12 Cleveland Browns $26,270,996

13 Denver Broncos $26,039,396

14 Carolina Panthers $25,893,754

15 Arizona Cardinals $21,859,091

16 San Francisco 49ers $21,680,129

17 New York Giants $19,277,888

18 Seattle Seahawks $16,464,866

19 Tennessee Titans $10,193,127

20 Buffalo Bills $4,212,750

21 Chicago Bears $2,583,119

22 Detroit Lions $2,171,211

23 Minnesota Vikings $-5,506,280

24 Las Vegas Raiders $-8,359,255

25 Houston Texans $-13,729,284

26 Kansas City Chiefs $-16,300,105

27 Los Angeles Rams $-17,871,528

28 Green Bay Packers $-19,425,474

29 Pittsburgh Steelers $-21,042,929

30 Atlanta Falcons $-24,480,238

31 Philadelphia Eagles $-64,498,636

32 New Orleans Saints $-96,426,161

[-OZ- 8,342]

23 minutes ago, higgins said:

On that subject, here's all teams' current projected 2021 cap space which may indicate their (in)ability to fit Stafford under their cap....

 

3 New England Patriots $72,186,508

 

I have no idea if they'll want it to work but this sure seems like it could.

[travdogg 2,999]

1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

Yes please. And trade Stafford! 

(Mostly because i want him to have a chance to win big) 

It's hard to trade a franchise QB and it probably won't happen, but if he were to play for the Patriots, 49ers, Bears, or Washington, those teams become really strong (IMO)

Stafford to Washington makes all the sense, in the world. 

I actually think we could see a bunch of qbs moved this off-season. Stafford, garoppolo, possibly even Ryan if the falcons decide to blow it up.

[Boston 3,207]

1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

We'll just disagree here. He needs to develop into the playbook more, and he'll continue to develop. The rookie QB has thrown 2 interceptions this year, along with 10 TDs. He has the lowest int% in the league and is 6-2. Obviously that's not all him and he's been more of a game manager than franchise QB, but for a rookie that's not bad. 

He won't be another Mahomes, Rodgers, etc. But I firmly believe he can be a super bowl winning QB. The starting job is his next year and I'd bet on him starting in 2022, barring injury.

Very strongly agree...I am definitely not saying he is gonna be Brady but the evaluation of him at this point of his career reminds me so much of those who were knocking Brady those first few years...you can tell he has all the intangibles and I think you are going to see dramatic improvement from him over the next few years.

[SoBeDad 2,337]

2 hours ago, Boston said:

Very strongly agree...I am definitely not saying he is gonna be Brady but the evaluation of him at this point of his career reminds me so much of those who were knocking Brady those first few years...you can tell he has all the intangibles and I think you are going to see dramatic improvement from him over the next few years.

That's what Jet fans were saying about Darnold after the 2018 and 2019 seasons, that there would be dramatic improvement. I'd feel better going into the 2021 draft if Fitz were signed for 2 more years. Herald beat writer Barry Jackson did an informal analysis of how recent young starting QBs did in their first starts. His conclusion was that "The majority of the quarterbacks of recent vintage who became Pro Bowlers (Jackson, Ryan, Wilson, Watson) had at least three good games in their first five starts as rookies."

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article246681387.html

[Kiddnets 987]

As a Jet fan I am seriously depressed.....huge drop off between Trevor and Fields.....if they go QB Im leaning Wilson.....any chance of him moving up by draft day?  and if they decide one more chance for Darnold what about Sewell to go with Becton....I know that is not usually done but having bookends like that seem pretty attractive.  

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four 701]

14 minutes ago, Kiddnets said:

As a Jet fan I am seriously depressed.....huge drop off between Trevor and Fields.....if they go QB Im leaning Wilson.....any chance of him moving up by draft day?  and if they decide one more chance for Darnold what about Sewell to go with Becton....I know that is not usually done but having bookends like that seem pretty attractive.  

I've seen a few draft "experts" who are moving Fields out of their number 2 spot so you might be in luck.

[rockaction 26,347]

23 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I've seen a few draft "experts" who are moving Fields out of their number 2 spot so you might be in luck.

Do they have Douglas's ear? 

Because he's the only guy that matters, and if NYRAGE is right at sussing out sources (and I believe he is), then it looks like Sewell at OT or a trade down. 

[TripleThreat 760]

Do the people predicting Sewell to Miami not remember they drafted 2 Tackles and a guard last year and they’ve all started. 

[Gatorman 130]

44 minutes ago, TripleThreat said:

Do the people predicting Sewell to Miami not remember they drafted 2 Tackles and a guard last year and they’ve all started. 

I agree with this and think a trade down (especially to pick up an extra 1 in 2022) would make the most sense, still, the phins could go from having a suspect o line to one of the biggest and nastiest.  
 

considering the phins like the idea of a wr  high,  trading with a qb needy team in the top 10 to keep the “multiple early picks” in perpetuity and still likely get the sec wr of their choice.

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four 701]

3 hours ago, rockaction said:

Do they have Douglas's ear? 

Because he's the only guy that matters, and if NYRAGE is right at sussing out sources (and I believe he is), then it looks like Sewell at OT or a trade down. 

All I meant by this is that it's not crazy to have other QBs in that #2 slot.

[=Smackdown= 748]

1 hour ago, TripleThreat said:

Do the people predicting Sewell to Miami not remember they drafted 2 Tackles and a guard last year and they’ve all started. 

Last year was a good start.

I want a nasty Oline & believe that is where the game is won. Sewell is an absolute beast. 
Draft seems WR deep and Miami has plenty of picks & cap space to address those needs.

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson
2. Carolina Panthers (from New York Jets) - Zach Wilson QB BYU
3. Philadelphia Eagles (From Miami Dolphins (from Houston)) - Penei Sewell OT Oregon 
4. Atlanta Falcons - Ja'Marr Chase WR LSU
5. Cincinnati Bengals - Rashawn Slater OL Northwestern
6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles) - DeVonta Smith WR Alabama 
7. San Francisco 49ers (from Detroit Lions) - Justin Fields QB Ohio State
8. New York Jets (from Carolina Panthers) - Caleb Farley CB Virginia Tech 
9. Denver Broncos - Micah Parsons LB PSU
10. Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain CB Alabama     
11. New York Giants - Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama
12. Detroit Lions (from San Francisco 49ers) - Gregory Rousseau DE Miami Fla     
13. Wasington Football Team (from Los Angeles Chargers) - Trey Lance QB North Dakota State
14. Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker OG USC
15. New England Patriots - Mac Jones QB Alabama
16. Arizona Cardinals - Kwity Paye DE Michigan 
17. Las Vegas Raiders - Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina    
18. Miami Dolphins - Wyatt Davis OL tOSU
19. Los Angeles Chargers (from Washington Football Team) - Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech
20. Chicago Bears - Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota
21. Indianapolis Colts - Jalen Mayfield OT Michigan
22. Tennessee Titans - Kyle Pitts TE Florida
23. New York Jets (from Seattle) - Pat Freiermuth Penn St. 
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Creed Humphrey OC Oklahoma 
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Las Vegas) - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame 
26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins LB Tulsa
27. Baltimore Ravens - Joseph Ossai DL/OLB Texas
28. New Orleans Saints - Kadarius Toney WR Florida 
29. Buffalo Bills - Travis Etienne RB Clemson
30. Green Bay Packers - Christian Barmore DT Alabama
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Levi Onwuzurike Washington 
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Nick Bolton LB Missouri
 

[Anarchy99 6,359]

I don't see NE taking the 5th QB with TE Kyle Pitts still on the board. And I don't see Pitts even falling as far as NE. Some folks don't even rate Jones as a first round pick.

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I don't see NE taking the 5th QB with TE Kyle Pitts still on the board. And I don't see Pitts even falling as far as NE. Some folks don't even rate Jones as a first round pick.

If anything, Jones is too low here. He proved at the Senior Bowl that he belongs. He's a lock for the first round.

And people keep thinking that the Patriots HAVE to recreate the Gronk days. It's not so. And what good is a TE if their QB is awful.

I love Pitts and agree he'll likely go higher. But someone always surprisingly falls. And not every team utilizes the TE position the same.

Edited February 1 by Andy Dufresne

[Anarchy99 6,359]

5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If anything, Jones is too low here. He proved at the Senior Bowl that he belongs. He's a lock for the first round.

And people keep thinking that the Patriots HAVE to recreate the Gronk days. It's not so. And what good is a TE if their QB is awful.

I love Pitts and agree he'll likely go higher. But someone always surprisingly falls. And not every team utilizes the TE position the same.

I have seen recent player profiles for Mac Jones that still suggest he is best suited to be an average NFL starter, with a draft grade as a Round 2 selection. We all know that QBs usually go way higher than they are rated, but the 15th overall pick seems too high to me. I have seen him going to WFT at 19 in several drafts.

As for the Patriots, at one point they got 169-2237-25 in a season from the Gronk/Hernandez pairing. Last year, their total TE production cratered at 18-254-1. From what I have heard, even drafting two TE last year, sources close to the team indicate they don't think either guy they took last year will turn into much.

NE has shown they lack weapons on offense, so IMO unless one of the other QBs fall, the Pats would be more inclined to take Pitts or one of the top WR if they draft an offensive player. Bill being Bill, it would not surprise me if he took a LB or DLineman if they stay at Pick 15.

[Boston 3,207]

16 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If anything, Jones is too low here. He proved at the Senior Bowl that he belongs. He's a lock for the first round.

And people keep thinking that the Patriots HAVE to recreate the Gronk days. It's not so. And what good is a TE if their QB is awful.

I love Pitts and agree he'll likely go higher. But someone always surprisingly falls. And not every team utilizes the TE position the same.

I love Jones and would be ecstatic if the Pats got him at 15 but it does appear he may go earlier.

[rockaction 26,347]

Good work, Andy, but the Jets aren't taking a TE at 23 unless his nameplate reads "Pitts." No chance.

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

 

1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Good work, Andy, but the Jets aren't taking a TE at 23 unless his nameplate reads "Pitts." No chance.

Why? The guy drawing Gronkowski comparisons is Freiermuth. 

You guys are a little behind in your homework, I think.

[rockaction 26,347]

Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

Why? The guy drawing Gronkowski comparisons is Freiermuth. 

You guys are a little behind in your homework, I think.

I don't think so. The guys is drawing Gronk comparisons at a surface level -- number and favorite player. I don't think they'll take a non-generational TE at twenty-three. TE is a devalued position, and I think Douglas puts a lot of stock in the valuation of position players. He's already shown himself to be draft and trade-savvy w/r/t to that, so let's see about this one.

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I don't think so. The guys is drawing Gronk comparisons at a surface level -- number and favorite player. I don't think they'll take a non-generational TE at twenty-three. TE is a devalued position, and I think Douglas puts a lot of stock in the valuation of position players. He's already shown himself to be draft and trade-savvy w/r/t to that, so let's see about this one.

I think you need to look into him a little bit more. You're way off on his talent level.

TE isn't devalued, it just doesn't have a lot of complete players at the position. 

And that's the thing that should give players pause with Pitts. He ran roughshod over college opponents, but his type doesn't always fare as well in The League. 

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

Anyway, I'm more interested in mocks reflecting the rising/falling stock of individual players than I am in getting the selections exactly right (although it's good to talk about team philosophy too).

Freiermuth is a fringe first round prospect and I wanted to show that here.  

[rockaction 26,347]

Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

I think you need to look into him a little bit more. You're way off on his talent level.

TE isn't devalued, it just doesn't have a lot of complete players at the position. 

And that's the thing that should give players pause with Pitts. He ran roughshod over college opponents, but his type doesn't always fare as well in The League. 

If you so say so. I know he was B1G player of the year at tight end. PFF doesn't even have him coming off the board in their first round mock. He's not generational. TE is devalued. Ahem, maybe you need to look into positional valuation more. I haven't seen many mocks with him going in the first, though I've admittedly looked at PFF the most.

I could be wrong. We'll see. But I'm acutely aware of who he is and where he's generally going.

It's just homer/personal criticism I'm giving you anyway. Nothing too personal. Overall, these lists are fun to go into.

He's graded as a second rounder by PFF and others.

 

[DocHolliday 4,208]

1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

I don't see NE taking the 5th QB with TE Kyle Pitts still on the board. And I don't see Pitts even falling as far as NE. Some folks don't even rate Jones as a first round pick.

Tough to predict where Jones will go.  He doesn’t looks special but it is a QB driven league.   Wouldn’t surprise me if a team took a chance on him late in the first round. 

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

21 minutes ago, rockaction said:

 

He's graded as a second rounder by PFF and others.

 

PFF is fun but kind of garbage at the same time. If you do their mock draft "game" you can routinely get Najee Harris in the 3rd, for example. I find their analysis pretty wonky and overrated in general.

Strike that. I was just being polite. I think PFF is dumb on the regular.

Edited February 1 by Andy Dufresne

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

Jones' floor is the Andy Dalton or Derek Carr level. Ceiling is somewhere above Baker Mayfield.

That's the problem with the position, though...If you don't suck completely, you won't be in position to take guys with obviously elite skills. So you have to take decent players, mold the system to their talent, and then make your team elite elsewhere. 

[Ministry of Pain 5,724]

What is Miami getting in the trade from Philly to slide down 3 spots? And then my favorite part is we pass on Justin Fields at the 1.06? 

So what are we getting 1st of all in this trade? I'd love to know that and an easy fix is I might put Fields in for Miami at 6 and somehow that triggers Tua going elsewhere or used as a chip to move up and down the draft board. 

Good stuff nonetheless.  

 

[Andy Dufresne 12,979]

53 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

What is Miami getting in the trade from Philly to slide down 3 spots? And then my favorite part is we pass on Justin Fields at the 1.06? 

So what are we getting 1st of all in this trade? I'd love to know that and an easy fix is I might put Fields in for Miami at 6 and somehow that triggers Tua going elsewhere or used as a chip to move up and down the draft board. 

Good stuff nonetheless.  

 

We all know how much you've convinced yourself that the Dolphins will replace Tua the first chance they get. But that is just extremely unlikely.

And I don't really care what the exact value of these trades would be - all of this is hypothetical anyway. 

[QuizGuy66 2,245]

Probably the "worst" case scenario for my Bengals - getting the 2nd best OL but I'd still be happy of course if they chose to protect Burrow.

I feel like there are so many QB-needy teams though that the much more favorable scenarios that land us Sewell are very much on the table.

Anyway appreciate the work and thought

-QG

[Edgar 276]

6 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Jones' floor is the Andy Dalton or Derek Carr level. Ceiling is somewhere above Baker Mayfield.

That's the problem with the position, though...If you don't suck completely, you won't be in position to take guys with obviously elite skills. So you have to take decent players, mold the system to their talent, and then make your team elite elsewhere. 

If the #5 QB's "floor" is a ten year starter in the league then he's a 1.01 candidate. Wayy too rich for my blood

[rockaction 26,347]

Another minor quibble. I don't think the Chiefs draft a linebacker. They drafted Willie Gay Jr. in the second round last year and he's barely played. I don't think they consider him a disappointment, either. It's just how they want to run their defense.

Checked Arrowhead Pride and their claim was the KC's main needs were at receiver, DE, and OL, OL being the position filled in your first mock. Anyway, just surprised to see a LB go in the first to KC.