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RB Michael Carter, NYJ


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3 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

That was definitely not the norm given ADP so props on great calls

It did not do me any good.  Anytime I was OTC and both Gibson or Pittman were available I took Pittman. I drafted Gibson but later in round two, I was super empty on early round two picks last year. I never faced a Ruggs vs Gibson call, that just never worked out that way.

Anyway not to get off subject I do agree that historically speaking the first/second round NFL drafted WR's are safer bets then a random 4th or even late third RB. I just think in this case there are enough things about Carters situation that merit's him being close enough to the WR's in that tier to take a shot especially if RB need exists.

I'd just add that a few people have commented he makes a nice early second round stab and that sounds great but I've done 7 drafts now and latest he went was 1.12. Leagues vary but in my leagues you don't get to spend an early second on him.

 

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Fourth-round pick Michael Carter could be perfect running back for Jets’ wide zone scheme
 

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The Jets’ running back situation is uncertain, an open competition for carries between Michael Carter, Tevin Coleman, La’Mical Perine, Ty Johnson, Austin Walter and Josh Adams.

Carter, Gang Green’s fourth round pick out of North Carolina, was dominant in 2020. Carter rushed for 1,245 yards on eight yards per carry, had nine touchdowns and caught 25 passes for 267 yards with two touchdowns. His production would have been higher if he didn’t share the backfield with Javonte Williams, who rushed for 1,140 yards and had 19 touchdowns.

Since 2017, 16 running backs drafted after the first round have rushed for over 700 yards in a single season. But only three who were drafted after the third round have hit that total in Marlon Mack (fourth), Aaron Jones (fifth) and Chris Carson (seventh).

The odds say it’s low that teams find an upper end starter on day three of the draft, but Carter has the talent and experience to overcome those odds.

One of the main reasons is the scheme fit. Under offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, the Jets will run a wide zone run scheme that focuses on the offensive linemen’s horizontal movement.

“I think my change of direction and my stop-start ability, I think it compliments this system well,” Carter told reporters after being drafted. “I’ve been running pretty much wide zone since I was born. So it’s something that really comes naturally to me. We read a lot of it in college, even in high school I did, even in youth football I did. So I’m very familiar with it. I’m just excited to get in the system.”

Head coach Robert Saleh felt the same way.

“Michael’s got tremendous vision, he’s got tremendous speed, burst. He’s got the ability to make people miss,” Saleh said after the draft. “He’s good on third down coming out of the backfield in the passing game, and he’s pretty stout in protection.”

The linemen’s objective in the wide zone is to move laterally by taking a step to the play side to set the edge. This helps them to gain the proper leverage with an opportunity to turn defenders back to the inside, and requires athletic linemen that can move to latch onto linebackers. The Jets feel that their last two first-round linemen, Mehki Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker, will thrive in those assignments.

This requires the running backs to have exceptional vision and patience as they wait for the edges to be set. Once the gap opens, it’s on the running back to explode through the hole. Carter has shown elusive ability and has exploited defenses when they’re not disciplined in their gaps.

The rest of the article has a few video clips showcasing Carter’s elusiveness.

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MICHAEL CARTER RB, NEW YORK JETS

The Athletic's Connor Hughes reports the Jets have been rotating rookie Michael Carter, Tevin Coleman, and Ty Johnson with the starters at OTAs.

La'Mical Perine is the notable exception from the group with the ones. Coleman was listed as the "starter" when the first-team offense took the field, but Hughes notes there's no front-runner for the job, as the Jets want to feature all three in different situations. New OC Mike LaFleur came over from San Francisco and is a product of the Shanahan coaching tree. The Niners use a bunch of different running backs under Kyle Shanahan. Per Hughes, Johnson looks more muscular this year, Coleman appears healthy, and Carter is "sneaky twitchy" and the "most elusive of the group." Coleman at least knows the playbook already after having played for LaFleur. Carter probably has the most upside of the bunch.

RELATED: 

Ty Johnson

, Tevin Coleman

SOURCE: The Athletic

May 29, 2021, 1:03 PM ET

 

 

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Re  @Faust 's last post, what's the chance of a sf style rbbc on the jets?   What's the chance the jets o-line is capable of supporting a single runner let alone multiple?  If Carter becomes the man can we even expect better than lower end rb2 numbers just because of how little talent is on that roster and how often the jets will be playing from behind?

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32 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Re  @Faust 's last post, what's the chance of a sf style rbbc on the jets?   What's the chance the jets o-line is capable of supporting a single runner let alone multiple?  If Carter becomes the man can we even expect better than lower end rb2 numbers just because of how little talent is on that roster and how often the jets will be playing from behind?

If Carter becomes "the man" I'd think his ppr production would be well within the mid RB 2 range.  Lotta points to be scored on dump offs, screens, and draws while playing from behind all season.

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Posted (edited)

At the Senior Bowl practices his pass protection was absolutely terrible.  If he doesn't fix that, he won't see the field enough.  I've targeted him somewhat in redrafts due to his scheme familiarity.  Love his prospects in dynasty to become a James White/Duke Johnson type at the least.

Edited by Maggot Brain
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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Re  @Faust 's last post, what's the chance of a sf style rbbc on the jets?   What's the chance the jets o-line is capable of supporting a single runner let alone multiple?  If Carter becomes the man can we even expect better than lower end rb2 numbers just because of how little talent is on that roster and how often the jets will be playing from behind?

Likely RBBC in some form, especially to start but my guess is likely all season and really just a matter of who makes up that RBBC and it's a 2 or 3 man RBBC.

Those optimistic on Carter point to Freeman and Aaron Jones, smaller type backs with ties to Jets staff, as what we hope Carter can be. Even those RB's  did not see big roles as rookies and even during their careers Freeman only once went over 15 carries a game in a season and Jones career high is 14.75. So year one for Carter, in a 17 game season, I think it would be overly optimistic to view him as some sort of bell cow runner and probably ever to be honest. To me the most realistic optimistic view of Carter is someone who ascends at some point into a 50-60% snap share and is catching a lot of passes but my guess is he'll be more in the 40-45% for most of the season at best and maybe for his career. But I think some people would be surprised at how low the snap count is for some highly regarded fantasy RB's. Kamara was 56% last season if you remove the last week he sat, Jones 52%, etc, etc and those players were healthy. Sure we sometimes see RB's go all the to 90% but that's not the norm and for the kind of RB that Carter is it's just not a realistic hope.

Yes you could hope for Carter to be better then a low end RB2 and I'd cite the examples of some of the  players I just referenced. Will he be is another question but I think it's possible for sure.  And I'd add he'll run behind a potentially dominant left hand side of the OL and pointing to what facook replied earlier to go along with that.

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After observing Wednesday's OTA, The Athletic's Connor Hughes believes "it won't be long before" fourth-rounder Michael Carter is the Jets' lead back.

Carter has consistently drawn praise from ace beat writer Hughes, who continues to highlight the rookie's playmaking ability and elusiveness out of the backfield. While Tevin Coleman has been working as the starter in team drills, Carter got the initial reps in individual work. It's been Carter, Coleman, and Ty Johnson working with the Zach Wilson group at OTAs, while La'Mical Perine and Josh Adams mix in with the twos and threes. Carter is the running back to target from the Jets in fantasy drafts.

RELATED: 

Tevin Coleman

SOURCE: The Athletic

Jun 2, 2021, 5:17 PM ET

 

 

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Jets signed fourth-round RB Michael Carter to a four-year, $4.2 million contract.

Carter has been the talk of OTAs, mixing in first-team reps with Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. That's not a surprise given how quickly he got on the field at UNC, where he had eight touchdowns as a true freshman. Carter has a clear path to Year 1 snaps but needs to prove he can handle a full workload after splitting carries with Javonte Williams the last three seasons. The Athletic's Connor Hughes thinks it "won't be long" before he's the Jets' lead back. 

Jun 4, 2021, 6:20 PM ET

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Brent Sobleski

@brentsobleski

RT - Mekhi Becton LG - Vera-Tucker C - McGovern RG - Van Roten RT - Moses Now throw the vaunted Shanahan outside zone into the mix and the Jets' run game could be a real problem. Buy low on rookie RB Michael Carter while you can.

----------------------

Jeremy Fowler

@JFowlerESPN

The #Jets and OT Morgan Moses are making progress on a potential multi-year deal, per source. Nothing done but Jets considered favorite and have made a compelling push to sign the seven-year veteran. Other teams have been involved, too.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Read a buy-low article yesterday morning and it included Carter as a guy people are sleeping on right now. I already liked him and have drafted a few shares in FBG redrafts and BBs but I actually got zero of him in any of my *several* dynasty rookie drafts last month and I really had to ask myself why was that? Since I liked him already and didn't need to be sold.

It was because I got so many shares of Sermon instead, which I don't mind but when it came down to a choice between those two I took Sermon every time. Anyway reading this article made me realize I might be able to buy Carter for a decent price right now. So anyway now I have two dynasty shares and some other offers out there. Looking at the calculators I do have to say he is going way less than he should be right now. It is going to depend on the individual owner quite a bit though because they're the one that drafted him.

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Read a buy-low article yesterday morning and it included Carter as a guy people are sleeping on right now. I already liked him and have drafted a few shares in FBG redrafts and BBs but I actually got zero of him in any of my *several* dynasty rookie drafts last month and I really had to ask myself why was that? Since I liked him already and didn't need to be sold.

It was because I got so many shares of Sermon instead, which I don't mind but when it came down to a choice between those two I took Sermon every time. Anyway reading this article made me realize I might be able to buy Carter for a decent price right now. So anyway now I have two dynasty shares and some other offers out there. Looking at the calculators I do have to say he is going way less than he should be right now. It is going to depend on the individual owner quite a bit though because they're the one that drafted him.

I'd take Sermon every time as well; I did in this same draft. Sermon at 1.08 and Carter at 1.12. I got super lucky with Marshall dropping to me at 2.07, but I think I would've been fine missing all those guys at the top of the second even if that hadn't happened. 

I tried shopping Carter around a bit, willing to add picks to him for Williams, Bateman, and a variety of vets... but didn't get a single counter even. I think everyone sees 4th round draft capital plus 'The Jets" and is instantly out. To be fair, it took me a bit to come around too, and I think getting at his value is pretty nuanced and hard to sell. @Leroy's Aces post here does a great job though and makes a lot of sense to me.

Anyways... that's a lot of words saying I agree with you and the article that he's a buy-low. Maybe in leagues where he went at 2.02 or later you'll find coaches who ended up with him because of adp pressure instead of the ones actively targeting him; they might be temptable. 

Edited by Adso
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57 minutes ago, Adso said:

I'd take Sermon every time as well; I did in this same draft. Sermon at 1.08 and Carter at 1.12. I got super lucky with Marshall dropping to me at 2.07, but I think I would've been fine missing all those guys at the top of the second even if that hadn't happened. 

I tried shopping Carter around a bit, willing to add picks to him for Williams, Bateman, and a variety of vets... but didn't get a single counter even. I think everyone sees 4th round draft capital plus 'The Jets" and is instantly out. To be fair, it took me a bit to come around too, and I think getting at his value is pretty nuanced and hard to sell. @Leroy's Aces post here does a great job though and makes a lot of sense to me.

Anyways... that's a lot of words saying I agree with you and the article that he's a buy-low. Maybe in leagues where he went at 2.02 or later you'll find coaches who ended up with him because of adp pressure instead of the ones actively targeting him; they might be temptable. 

The two shares of Carter I acquired today and yesterday were drafted at 1.09 and 1.11. The 1.11 owner also had 1.12 and took Lawrence there. I get the feeling they might not have loved this draft. 

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24 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

The two shares of Carter I acquired today and yesterday were drafted at 1.09 and 1.11. The 1.11 owner also had 1.12 and took Lawrence there. I get the feeling they might not have loved this draft. 

Interesting. What did you send?

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9 minutes ago, Adso said:

 

I tried shopping Carter around a bit, willing to add picks to him for Williams, Bateman, and a variety of vets... but didn't get a single counter even. I think everyone sees 4th round draft capital plus 'The Jets" and is instantly out.

I had 8 rookie drafts and Carter went ahead of Bateman in 6 of the 8 and the latest Carter lasted in any draft was 1.12. 

We just did a startup draft a few weeks ago with all members from this forum and I might have missed someone but per my count he was the 7th rookie off the board.

All leagues are different and I think you are just in a league(s) that puts a lower value on  Carter and/or a higher value on Bateman then the consensus values.(did not know which Williams you were referring? If it's Mike even with the current hype I'm not seeing anyone in my leagues, redraft or dynasty, prefer Williams. But again, each league is it's own world)

I don't really have a ton to add that is new to the discussion of his size and draft stock that's not already been hashed out and these things are legit reasons to be leery of his investment cost. But when you look at factors such as scheme as a whole and in particular the success of similar size and draft pedigreed RB's in the same scheme. You combine that with the opportunity ahead of him I just think a lot of people realize he's got a lot more things going for him then most 4th round undersized RB's.

I also prefer Sermon over Carter due to size and athletic profile but I did draft Carter in two rookie drafts. What I think I bought is a player with a solid/usable floor this year due to lack comp and receptions which generally enables a player to have a solid floor without a lot of rushing volume. And part of that lack of comp is wide open opportunity to showcase himself, to see if he can be the next Devonta Freeman type in this scheme. So a solid usable floor this year with an opportunity for more. I don't think prospect to prospect he rates as highly as some rookie WR's you can usually take over him but the positional scarcity in those positions is night and day. Reach is an ugly word in fantasy, not sure if it applies to taking Carter over a lot of WR options but if so I'd not argue big time against that terminology.  But I don't do a lot of drafts were at some point I got to take what I view as inferior RB to a comparable WR because the position dictates it. So if we are calling it a reach I'm ok with that term, I just think there are a variety of factors at play that make him an appealing reach with a better chance as success then most that fit his profile.

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16 minutes ago, menobrown said:

All leagues are different and I think you are just in a league(s) that puts a lower value on  Carter and/or a higher value on Bateman then the consensus values.(did not know which Williams you were referring? If it's Mike even with the current hype I'm not seeing anyone in my leagues, redraft or dynasty, prefer Williams. But again, each league is it's own world).

I meant Devante Williams. You're probably right about my league regardless though and I agree with everything else you're saying with regards to him having a lot more going on than most 4th round undersized RB's... maybe it's just my perception that most people don't see the same things is wrong.

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4 minutes ago, Adso said:

I meant Devante Williams. You're probably right about my league regardless though and I agree with everything else you're saying with regards to him having a lot more going on than most 4th round undersized RB's... maybe it's just my perception that most people don't see the same things is wrong.

I think you mean Javonte Williams, if we're getting nitpicky.

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41 minutes ago, Adso said:

Interesting. What did you send?

Kupp and Deebo for Carter, B Edwards and a 3rd from the owner that took Carter at 1.09. Nobody was willing to sell me a late 1st for the Kupp/Deebo combo before the draft but now the equivalent worked out. IDK. 

Second deal I gave R Wilson and Boyd for Carter, Winston and a 2nd. I have Tanny and Ryan already and don't care about the QB swap. Boyd isn't a guy I want.

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Posted (edited)

Twitter blowing up about Michael Carter today and his 4th roundedness because of a Mike Clay tweet tracking all 4th round picks since 2003 and their success rate in the NFL for fantasy purposes.

It's very, very low. Search "Mike Clay" in Twitter and it's his second post. You can see the chart of success for fourth rounders in their rookie year, and the finishes aren't pretty whatsoever. The finishes in later years tend to be awful, too.

Then the argument came down that he's the fifth back taken, that the Jets had a third round grade on him, etc. etc., but the naysayers rebut those assumptions pretty thoroughly. Almost everybody, one guy points out, has a third-round grade on them when they get taken in the fourth round. There is no ADP in football. It's one night, a closed circuit of 32 teams. He's a fourth rounder. And the RB5 might mean it was a bad RB class (by all testing and accounts, it was) so that doesn't hold really, either, according to them.

As for me, I'm not sanguine about this guy's chances. Think they're really going to look hard at some cuts that were made by other teams and you could see a really surprise starter there in NY by a few games in.

Edited by rockaction
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Twitter blowing up about Michael Carter today and his 4th roundedness because of a Mike Clay tweet tracking all 4th round picks since 2003 and their success rate in the NFL for fantasy purposes.

It's very, very low. Search "Mike Clay" in Twitter and it's his second post. You can see the chart of success for fourth rounders in their rookie year, and the finishes aren't pretty whatsoever. The finishes in later years tend to be awful, too.

Then the argument came down that he's the fifth back taken, that the Jets had a third round grade on him, etc. etc., but the naysayers rebut those assumptions pretty thoroughly. Almost everybody, one guy points out, has a third-round grade on them when they get taken in the fourth round. There is no ADP in football. It's one night, a closed circuit of 32 teams. He's a fourth rounder. And the RB5 might mean it was a bad RB class (by all testing and accounts, it was) so that doesn't hold really, either, according to them.

As for me, I'm not sanguine about this guy's chances. Think they're really going to look hard at some cuts that were made by other teams and you could see a really surprise starter there in NY by a few games in.

It's a bit odd to only look at the 4th round, isn't it?  What about James Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Philip Lindsay et al?  I get his point, that Carter's odds aren't great when you look at the historical data but I also think the game is changing, along with the valuation of running backs (with many teams increasingly believing that they're not worth investing early picks in), and it's entirely possible that Carter would have been a late 2nd or 3rd round back just a few years ago. It's hard to say but this doesn't move the needle for me at all.

Edit to add: Chris Carson is another late round RB who hit, albeit not a 4th rounder (he was a 7th round pick).

Edited by TS Garp
Added Chris Carson.
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, TS Garp said:

It's a bit odd to only look at the 4th round, isn't it?  What about James Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Philip Lindsay et al?  I get his point, that Carter's odds aren't great when you look at the historical data but I also think the game is changing, along with the valuation of running backs (with many teams increasingly believing that they're not worth investing early picks in), and it's entirely possible that Carter would have been a late 2nd or 3rd round back just a few years ago. It's hard to say but this doesn't move the needle for me at all.

Edit to add: Chris Carson is another late round RB who hit, albeit not a 4th rounder (he was a 7th round pick).

Yes, that was brought up, and it seems like a really effective rebuttal, but then what about all the other backs taken 4-7 or signed as UDFAs? You're talking about a slim, slim amount that make it. In fact, it's so remarkable that we know who they are offhandedly like you do, and they're great underdog success stories, but simply stepping back and looking at how many of those guys in those rounds don't make even a slim dent should give one pause before the anecdotal argument gets fired up.

Edited by rockaction
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I do get what you're saying and want to sympathize with it badly. I'm not necessarily a fan of the overground candidate or the blue-chip prospect. I love when coaches and systems and the recruiting and drafting machine prove fallible and they miss guys that fell through the cracks for whatever reason. I can relate to that. James Robinson is probably my favorite story of the past five years save for Mahomes's greatness and the gumption and belief Reid and the Chiefs showed in getting their guy, knowing what others didn't.

But the evidence all seems to point in a different direction with respect to these backs, fantasy, and draft capital.

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yes, that was brought up, and it seems like a really effective rebuttal, but then what about all the other backs taken 4-7 or signed as UDFAs? You're talking about a slim, slim amount that make it. It's so remarkable that we know who they are offhandedly like you do, and they're great underdog success stories, but simply stepping back and looking at how many of those guys in those rounds don't make even a slim dent should give one pause before the anecdotal argument gets fired up.

I hadn't looked at Carter's ADP - it's RB36 in PPR (per FantasyPros) and he's being taken ahead of Dillon, Moss, Sermon, Harris, Gus, Singletary, and Pollard, which is a bit too rich for me, although it doesn't seem way off base. I see Clay's point - that banking on someone being an outlier is a poor bet. With that said, Carter was the second pick in the 4th.  If you open this up to the 3rd, we get Kamara, Gibson, Hunt, Conner, David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, etc.  Again, I see his point but he chose a round-about way to make it.

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Just now, TS Garp said:

I hadn't looked at Carter's ADP - it's RB36 in PPR (per FantasyPros) and he's being taken ahead of Dillon, Moss, Sermon, Harris, Gus, Singletary, and Pollard, which is a bit too rich for me, although it doesn't seem way off base. I see Clay's point - that banking on someone being an outlier is a poor bet. With that said, Carter was the second pick in the 4th.  If you open this up to the 3rd, we get Kamara, Gibson, Hunt, Conner, David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, etc.  Again, I see his point but he chose a round-about way to make it.

I think you can't open it up to the third because that's the top end of the draft and there are so many from the third that it dilutes the point. It doesn't seem to be an arbitrary cut-off is what I'm saying. If it were like, well, we'll start at pick so-and-so, then I could see it. But it's pretty specific and delineated as a point of reference.

But your point is taken. It's just that...well...what if we were to say the third wasn't enough and had to open it up to the second? There's got to be a cut-off somewhere, and the line between the third and the fourth seems like the proof is in the pudding there regarding why. I'm not saying the fourth is a death knell for all guys. But the odds seem really, really long. Perhaps Carter is the exception.

I just see no real problem with the methodology Clay used. It's a clean round break, it's almost the exact middle (aside from compensatory picks) of the draft, the guys there have an overwhelming tendency to not hit, etc. I'm personally fine with his method. YMMV.

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2 hours ago, TS Garp said:

It's a bit odd to only look at the 4th round, isn't it?  What about James Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Philip Lindsay et al?  I get his point, that Carter's odds aren't great when you look at the historical data but I also think the game is changing, along with the valuation of running backs (with many teams increasingly believing that they're not worth investing early picks in), and it's entirely possible that Carter would have been a late 2nd or 3rd round back just a few years ago. It's hard to say but this doesn't move the needle for me at all.

Edit to add: Chris Carson is another late round RB who hit, albeit not a 4th rounder (he was a 7th round pick).

I was going to bring this up as well.

Its called selection bias. If you include a wider range of players, say all players drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL draft the success rate of them becoming useful players is smaller than the group of players selected in the 3rd round or higher, but the hit rate is not so rare that one should discount the players because of draft position alone.

If one looks at draft position for RB over the last 3 decades you will see the trend line going down pretty consistently. Teams are not drafting RB as early or as often as they used to. Hell back in the 80s and 90s it wasn't that unusual for there to be 3 or more 1st round picks at the position or more every year. We have gotten to the point where any RB selected in the 1st round is more of the exception than the norm.

I looked at Clays chart and I count 15 players out of the 65 in the sample as having at least one top 24 season ( a couple were 25 that I didnt count) that is 23% of the sample.

While the success rate of players drafted in the 3rd round is likely higher than that, it still isn't by a large margin. Its not like 50% of the guys drafted in the 3rd round are hits either.

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

I do get what you're saying and want to sympathize with it badly. I'm not necessarily a fan of the overground candidate or the blue-chip prospect. I love when coaches and systems and the recruiting and drafting machine prove fallible and they miss guys that fell through the cracks for whatever reason. I can relate to that. James Robinson is probably my favorite story of the past five years save for Mahomes's greatness and the gumption and belief Reid and the Chiefs showed in getting their guy, knowing what others didn't.

But the evidence all seems to point in a different direction with respect to these backs, fantasy, and draft capital.

I would suggest looking into this further before reaching that conclusion.

What is the success rate of RB selected in the 3rd round over the same time frame for example?

That would give you more context about what this actually means.

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Here are all of the RB selected in the 3rd round since 2001

1	2021	3	88	Trey Sermon	RB	22	SFO			0	0	0				Ohio St.	College Stats
2	2020	3	66	Antonio Gibson	RB	22	WAS	2020	2020	0	0	1	5	14	10	Memphis	College Stats
3	2020	3	76	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	23	TAM	2020	2020	0	0	0	1	10	0	Illinois	College Stats
4	2020	3	86	Zack Moss	RB	22	BUF	2020	2020	0	0	0	5	13	0	Utah	College Stats
5	2020	3	93	Darrynton Evans	RB	22	TEN	2020	2020	0	0	0	1	5	0	Appalachian St.	College Stats
6	2019	3	70	Darrell Henderson	RB	22	LAR	2019	2020	0	0	1	5	28	11	Memphis	College Stats
7	2019	3	73	David Montgomery	RB	22	CHI	2019	2020	0	0	1	17	31	22	Iowa St.	College Stats
8	2019	3	74	Devin Singletary	RB	22	BUF	2019	2020	0	0	2	14	28	24	Florida Atlantic	College Stats
9	2019	3	87	Damien Harris	RB	22	NWE	2019	2020	0	0	1	5	12	10	Alabama	College Stats
10	2019	3	102	Alexander Mattison	RB	21	MIN	2019	2020	0	0	0	8	26	2	Boise St.	College Stats
11	2018	3	71	Royce Freeman	RB	22	DEN	2018	2020	0	0	0	9	46	8	Oregon	College Stats
12	2017	3	67	Alvin Kamara	RB	22	NOR	2017	2020	0	4	3	50	60	35	Tennessee	College Stats
13	2017	3	86	Kareem Hunt	RB	22	KAN	2017	2020	0	1	2	34	51	35	Toledo	College Stats
14	2017	3	89	D'Onta Foreman	RB	21	HOU	2017	2020	0	0	0	3	17	1	Texas	College Stats
15	2017	3	105	James Conner	RB	22	PIT	2017	2020	0	1	3	19	50	33	Pittsburgh	College Stats
16	2016	3	73	Kenyan Drake	RB	22	MIA	2016	2020	0	0	2	27	77	37	Alabama	College Stats
17	2016	3	90	C.J. Prosise	RB	22	SEA	2016	2020	0	0	0	5	35	2	Notre Dame	College Stats
18	2015	3	73	Tevin Coleman	RB	22	ATL	2015	2020	0	0	2	31	78	32	Indiana	College Stats
19	2015	3	77	Duke Johnson	RB	21	CLE	2015	2020	0	0	0	27	91	17	Miami (FL)	College Stats
20	2015	3	86	David Johnson	RB	23	ARI	2015	2020	1	1	3	39	74	59	Northern Iowa	
21	2015	3	95	Matt Jones	RB	22	WAS	2015	2017	0	0	0	9	25	7	Florida	College Stats
22	2014	3	69	Charles Sims	RB	23	TAM	2014	2017	0	0	0	13	47	2	West Virginia	College Stats
23	2014	3	75	Tre Mason	RB	21	STL	2014	2015	0	0	1	8	25	12	Auburn	College Stats
24	2014	3	94	Terrance West	RB	23	CLE	2014	2017	0	0	2	11	43	23	Towson	
25	2014	3	96	Jerick McKinnon	RB	22	MIN	2014	2020	0	0	1	25	74	18	Georgia Southern	
26	2013	3	96	Knile Davis	RB	21	KAN	2013	2016	0	0	0	10	57	2	Arkansas	College Stats
27	2012	3	67	Ronnie Hillman	RB	20	DEN	2012	2016	0	0	1	17	56	15	San Diego St.	College Stats
28	2012	3	84	Bernard Pierce	RB	21	BAL	2012	2015	0	0	0	10	52	3	Temple	College Stats
29	2011	3	71	DeMarco Murray	RB	23	DAL	2011	2017	1	3	7	60	99	86	Oklahoma	College Stats
30	2011	3	73	Stevan Ridley	RB	22	NWE	2011	2018	0	0	1	25	73	27	LSU	College Stats
Rk	Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Pos	DrAge	Tm	From	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	GS	College/Univ	
31	2011	3	96	Alex Green	RB	23	GNB	2011	2013	0	0	0	5	29	4	Hawaii	College Stats
32	2009	3	65	Shonn Greene	RB	24	NYJ	2009	2014	0	0	2	23	85	36	Iowa	College Stats
33	2009	3	74	Glen Coffee	RB	22	SFO	2009	2009	0	0	0	2	14	2	Alabama	College Stats
34	2008	3	64	Kevin Smith	RB	21	DET	2008	2012	0	0	2	19	54	31	Central Florida	College Stats
35	2008	3	69	Jacob Hester	FB	23	SDG	2008	2012	0	0	1	6	65	23	LSU	College Stats
36	2008	3	73	Jamaal Charles	RB	21	KAN	2008	2018	2	4	4	67	119	69	Texas	College Stats
37	2008	3	89	Steve Slaton	RB	22	HOU	2008	2011	0	0	2	21	45	26	West Virginia	College Stats
38	2007	3	71	Lorenzo Booker	RB	23	MIA	2007	2011	0	0	0	4	36	2	Florida St.	College Stats
39	2007	3	90	Tony Hunt	RB	21	PHI	2007	2008	0	0	0	0	14	2	Penn St.	College Stats
40	2007	3	93	Garrett Wolfe	RB	23	CHI	2007	2010	0	0	0	2	50	0	Northern Illinois	College Stats
41	2006	3	74	Brian Calhoun	RB	22	DET	2006	2007	0	0	0	1	11	0	Wisconsin	College Stats
42	2006	3	79	Jerious Norwood	RB	23	ATL	2006	2011	0	0	0	20	66	6	Mississippi St.	College Stats
43	2005	3	65	Frank Gore	RB	22	SFO	2005	2020	0	5	14	94	241	218	Miami (FL)	College Stats
44	2005	3	73	Vernand Morency	RB	25	HOU	2005	2007	0	0	0	8	39	3	Oklahoma St.	College Stats
45	2005	3	77	Ryan Moats	RB	22	PHI	2005	2009	0	0	0	7	38	3	Louisiana Tech	College Stats
46	2005	3	101	Maurice Clarett	RB		DEN			0	0	0				Ohio St.	
47	2003	3	77	Musa Smith	RB	21	BAL	2003	2007	0	0	0	6	49	1	Georgia	College Stats
48	2003	3	85	B.J. Askew	FB	23	NYJ	2003	2009	0	0	1	4	83	21	Michigan	College Stats
49	2003	3	93	Chris Brown	RB	22	TEN	2003	2009	0	0	2	23	68	33	Colorado	College Stats
50	2003	3	96	Justin Fargas	FB	23	OAK	2003	2009	0	0	2	20	92	32	USC	College Stats
51	2002	3	84	Lamar Gordon	RB	22	STL	2002	2006	0	0	0	9	41	15	North Dakota St.	
52	2002	3	91	Brian Westbrook	RB	23	PHI	2002	2010	1	2	7	69	121	90	Villanova	
53	2001	3	65	James Jackson	RB	25	CLE	2001	2005	0	0	1	9	52	16	Miami (FL)	College Stats
54	2001	3	80	Kevan Barlow	RB	22	SFO	2001	2006	0	0	2	36	84	33	Pittsburgh	College Stats
55	2001	3	82	Heath Evans	FB	22	SEA	2001	2010	0	0	0	8	143	23	Auburn	College Stats
56	2001	3	85	Travis Minor	RB	22	MIA	2001	2008	0	0	0	10	118	4	Florida St.	College Stats

I count 12 of these RB as having a top 12 seasons but would need to dig further to identify guys who have had top 24.

It will be more than the 4th round sample, but as you can see not that much more.

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Posted (edited)

Workdog did a study on this several years ago where he looked at the players by the order they were selected by position, which is different than how most folks partition these things.

Anyhow here are the results of that study

You can see the randomness in this sample showing that the 5th RB selected actually had better success rate than the 4th RB selected did.

Edited by Biabreakable
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13 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Workdog did a study on this several years ago where he looked at the players by the order they were selected by position, which is different than how most folks partition these things.

Anyhow here are the results of that study

You can see the randomness in this sample showing that the 5th RB selected actually had better success rate than the 4th RB selected did.

I've looked at a bunch of studies, and they consistently find the same thing. It's not even really that debatable, from what I understand. I know that FFAstronauts did a really good one. I've linked to two below. The FF Astronauts one has links to other pieces about this correlation also.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/draft-capital-its-correlation-to-early-career-fantasy-production/

https://www.ffastronauts.com/post/draft-capital-running-backs

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Posted (edited)

Thanks for the links rockaction.

The first link there is a chart that shows the number of RB selected in the 4th round is higher than the number of RB selected in the 3rd round ect. so there is a larger pool of RB being selected in the 4th and later rounds than there are being selected in rounds higher than that.

The 2nd link answers the question of how many RB two seasons for fantasy a RB selected in the 4th round has had as 12.8% while a RB selected in the 3rd round has had a 21.9% of doing that.

So it is close to twice as likely, but the odds of either becoming that are still rather small.

This study is only looking at the players first 3 seasons of performance which makes sense to me. We should know who these players are in the NFL pretty well by then and draft position shouldn't matter any more. However there have been some players such as Priest Holmes or Michael Turner that needed a 2nd contract and another team to show their worth and those performances are not included in the sample.

eta - I still haven't seen any one do a study like this the way workdog did. Just looking at the order the RB was selected without consideration for the round they were drafted. 

There is likely a reason for that. The fact that the 5th RB selected has outperformed the 4th RB selected seems like more of an effect of randomness to me than anything else, but looking at it this way is relevant to Carter as he was the 5th RB selected in 2021.

Edited by Biabreakable
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He’s competing against only one RB drafted higher than him. Coleman was drafted in the 3rd round, but he’s 28 and we know he’s not a bell cow at all. 
 

Buy now sell later. 
 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, TS Garp said:

I hadn't looked at Carter's ADP - it's RB36 in PPR (per FantasyPros) and he's being taken ahead of Dillon, Moss, Sermon, Harris, Gus, Singletary, and Pollard, which is a bit too rich for me, although it doesn't seem way off base. I see Clay's point - that banking on someone being an outlier is a poor bet. With that said, Carter was the second pick in the 4th.  If you open this up to the 3rd, we get Kamara, Gibson, Hunt, Conner, David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, etc.  Again, I see his point but he chose a round-about way to make it.

Here's Clay with rounds 3-7, just to prove his own point. Ugly.

https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/1411142235148652554/photo/1

Rounds 1-2

https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/1411146507445809155/photo/1

Edited by rockaction
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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, rockaction said:

Twitter blowing up about Michael Carter today and his 4th roundedness because of a Mike Clay tweet tracking all 4th round picks since 2003 and their success rate in the NFL for fantasy purposes.

It's very, very low. Search "Mike Clay" in Twitter and it's his second post. You can see the chart of success for fourth rounders in their rookie year, and the finishes aren't pretty whatsoever. The finishes in later years tend to be awful, too.

Yeah I got into that yesterday a little on twitter. The list is damning for sure. Hard to sugarcoat. Here was my response, though, and I'm not saying it means a ton. But I do think there is a difference between a *weak* class and a *thin* class at a position. They don't mean the same thing and it is entirely possible that as the RB5 Carter should be looked at in a different lens than simply the 4th rounder thing. Maybe the class is actually very strong at the top but thin after that and maybe he is part of the top. Murky grey area is that with the 4th round thing it is highly debatable whether he is really part of the top heavy portion or whether he is part of the thinner portion. But on Clay's list, the top 22 rookie seasons listed came from guys drafted as follows:

RB12 2001BUCKHALTER

RB9 2002JONATHAN WELLS

RB6 2003DOMANICK WILLIAMS

RB7 2003ONTERRIO SMITH

RB7 2004MEWELDE MOORE

RB10 2005BARBER

RB9 2006LEON WASHINGTON

RB9 2011ROY HELU

RB10 2011KENDALL HUNTER

RB9 2014ANDRE WILLIAMS

RB8 2014FREEMAN

RB9 2015LANGFORD

RB10 2015JAVORIUS ALLEN

RB11 2015MIKE DAVIS

RB7 2016BOOKER

RB6 2016DIXON

RB10 2017COHEN

RB13 2017JAMAAL WILLIAMS

RB9 2017S PERINE

RB14 2017GALLMAN

RB15 2017MACK

RB9 2018HINES

I wanna see the splits for how the RB4-7s did in their rookie seasons. There is bound to be noise in terms of comparing the RBx from one class to another, but there is a ton of noise in the current accepted notion of what draft capital is. 

 

Edited by barackdhouse
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Posted (edited)

If he hits, Carter will never be cheaper than he is right now, from the owners that drafted him reluctantly. 

ETA added the words *if he hits* even though that part should be self evident. Yes his value would be lower if he busts for whatever reason. In other news water is wet. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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I think people are missing the key ingredient on this 4th round business and not factoring in such a high majority of RB's who get drafted 4th round or later or not drafted at all who achieve success either played under  Kyle Shanahan or for a HC/OC who has direct ties to him.

 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Carter will never be cheaper than he is right now, from the owners that drafted him reluctantly. 

'Never'? Quite the absolute.

You saying he doesn't 'ever' get hurt, flame out, new coaching staff, have a replacement drafted/free agent brought in, or get old?

Or do you over-dramatize 'everything'?

\sarcasm\

I think you meant to say that it's the cheapest you may be able to buy him, if all goes well, over the next 2-6 months.

Edited by Riffraff
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19 hours ago, rockaction said:

I've looked at a bunch of studies, and they consistently find the same thing. It's not even really that debatable, from what I understand. I know that FFAstronauts did a really good one. I've linked to two below. The FF Astronauts one has links to other pieces about this correlation also.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/draft-capital-its-correlation-to-early-career-fantasy-production/

https://www.ffastronauts.com/post/draft-capital-running-backs

A big driver of the correlation is oppurtunity. Teams drafting a RB in rounds 1-3 generally have a need and plan to give them carries. 

 

 

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On 7/3/2021 at 1:06 PM, Riffraff said:

'Never'? Quite the absolute.

You saying he doesn't 'ever' get hurt, flame out, new coaching staff, have a replacement drafted/free agent brought in, or get old?

Or do you over-dramatize 'everything'?

\sarcasm\

I think you meant to say that it's the cheapest you may be able to buy him, if all goes well, over the next 2-6 months.

I was using the word with the implied understanding that I think he will hit. Obviously that may not happen. If I had written it as perfectly as you think I should have would you be less insulting? My guess is not.

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On 7/3/2021 at 8:25 AM, barackdhouse said:

If he hits, Carter will never be cheaper than he is right now, from the owners that drafted him reluctantly. 

ETA added the words *if he hits* even though that part should be self evident. Yes his value would be lower if he busts for whatever reason. In other news water is wet. 

There. Now the pedantic police have been paid off. 

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On 7/3/2021 at 11:13 AM, menobrown said:

I think people are missing the key ingredient on this 4th round business and not factoring in such a high majority of RB's who get drafted 4th round or later or not drafted at all who achieve success either played under  Kyle Shanahan or for a HC/OC who has direct ties to him.

 

Well there is that.

Also it should be pretty obvious that some of these players drafted in the 3rd round are not drafted to be starters, and we can somewhat sort this out ourselves. For example Mattison was not drafted by the Vikings to be a starter, but to be a quality back up. The Vikings used a 2nd round pick on Toby Gerhardt for basically the same thing, although Peterson was a worse receiving RB than Cook, so they actually did have a need for a player who could block and catch the ball.

Some of these guys are drafted for special teams or other things.

Its our job to sort this all out and figure out who actually has a shot to become a starter, regardless of the draft capital invested in them.

While hindsight is 20/20 you go back through these lists and I think for the most part we the fantasy community have been able to isolate the potential starters from the other guys before the fact, because its not actually that hard to do. The coaches and GMs have different goals for how they are using their picks than we do.

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to RB Michael Carter, NYJ

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