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QB Drafted in 1st + 2nd Rounds of NFL Draft (2009 - 2016)


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Here is a list of all of the QB draft in the first round from 2009-2016 (8 years). There is a reason I picked those years (more on this later). There were 22 QB taken as first round picks in that time. To refresh people's memories . . .

2009 Matt Stafford (1)
2009 Mark Sanchez (5) - Last played in 2018
2009 Josh Freeman (17) - Last played in 2015
2010 Sam Bradford (1) - Last played in 2018
2010 Tim Tebow (25) - Last played in 2012
2011 Cam Newton (1)
2011 Jake Locker (8) - Last played in 2014
2011 Blaine Gabbert (10)
2011 Christian Ponder (12) - Last played in 2014
2012 Andrew Luck (1) - Last played in 2018
2012 Robert Griffin III (2)
2012 Ryan Tannehill (8)
2012 Brandon Weeden (22) - Last played in 2018
2013 E.J. Manual (16) - Last played in 2017
2014 Blake Bortles (3) - Last played in 2019
2014 Johnny Manziel (22) - Last played in 2015
2014 Teddy Bridgewater (32)
2015 Jameis Winston (1)
2015 Marcus Mariota (2)
2016 Jared Goff (1)
2016 Carson Wentz (2)
2016 Paxton Lynch (26) - Last played in 2017

Here is a list of all the QB selected in the 2nd round in those same years (8 players):

2009 Pat White (44) - Last played 2009
2010 Jimmy Clausen (48) - Last played in 2015
2011 Andy Dalton (35)
2011  Colin Kaepernick (36) - Last played in 2016
2012 Brock Osweiler (57) - Last played in 2018
2013 Geno Smith (39)
2014 Jimmy Garoppolo (62)
2016 Christian Hackenberg (51) - Never played in an NFL game

So what's the point? What do all of these players have in common? NONE of them are still on the team that drafted them. Of thee 30 players listed, 16 of them did not take a snap in the 2020 season or are out of the league entirely. That's 53% of them.

That's not to say that all of these guys were busts. There are some very good players on the list. But as far as teams investing top draft capital to get a QB to lead them to a SB title, they have accounted for 0 rings and 3 SB losses (Netwon, Goff, Garoppolo). Who knows how to count Wentz, as his team won a SB but he was injured and missed the end of the season and the playoffs.

I get that it's a QB driven league and if you don't have one your team isn't going anywhere. I don't know if the after-the-fact outcomes show anything or if this weird quirky patch of teams moving on from the QB they drafted means much at all.

If we extend things into the 2017 draft . . .

2017
Mitchell Trubisky (2)
Patrick Mahomes (10)
Deshawn Watson (12)
DeShone Kizer (52) - Last played in 2018

Obviously Mahomes isn't going anywhere, but Trubisky is likely going to be moved and there's lots of talk of Watson getting traded. That would make Mahomes the only QB drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds still on his original team across 9 drafts out of 34 drafted quarterbacks. I find that a bit shocking.

What, if anything, does this tell us? That there was a stretch of some mediocre QB coming out in the draft? That teams will draft QB way earlier than they should? That bad teams make bad decisions? That bad teams are still bad even with a young QB? That teams should slow their roll when it comes to drafting a QB early?

Given that there could be 5 QB drafted in the first round in a few weeks, it made me wonder if taking one of the back end ones is really all that great a draft strategy (or even one of the earlier ones as well). On the first list of 30 first round draft picks selected in the first round, 14 were selected in the Top 10. Of those, there were 11 that probably would be considered major disappointments and under performers (although there is always a chance they get a chance to turn things around now being on a different team).

What do people think this means (if anything)? Or maybe it's all just a fluke?

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If you do the years from 2017 on you get Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Murray, Jones, Haskins, Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Love...while it is still very young it does look like teams are getting a little better at identifying QBs...my total guess on that is the NFL is now tailoring offenses more towards how these guys play instead of trying to be square peg, round hole.  

Also, and this is a big one, if you look at the history of great NFL QBs almost all of them have one thing in common...they played for a very good Coach...no doubt that of all the positions coaching (and organization) has the most influence on the QB position.

Edited by Boston
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A handful of these guys have one outstanding "talent" (normally arm strength, although as seen in manziel and Tebow sometimes it's running) that blinds a team to their other deficiencies which *cough*blakebortlesandpressure*cough* are /glaring/.  As for others, like Mariota, sometimes it's just a constant change in/bad coaching zap any promise.  And of course there's injury (RG3, we knew ye once) that can derail any promises.

The real answer is, it's a case by case basis.  Bad teams picking bad players, good players get stuck in bad situations and regress, never draft a qb who can't handle pressure with an early draft pick, and some years the qbs in the draft get picked higher than they should because they're qbs.  A good thing to note is that a handful of these guys got a second life on their next team, so maybe they were just a round peg in a square hole.

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Kaepernick also led his team to a Super Bowl. That's a minor correction, but those QBs with high draft capital are 0-4 in the Super Bowl.

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Just now, rockaction said:

Kaepernick also led his team to a Super Bowl. That's a minor correction, but those QBs with high draft capital are 0-4 in the Super Bowl.

Yeah, I added second round QBs as an afterthought, which only exemplifies the so-so outcomes of first round QBs (2 SB appearances from first round guys, 2 SB appearances from second round guys).

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Yeah, I added second round QBs as an afterthought, which only exemplifies the so-so outcomes of first round QBs (2 SB appearances from first round guys, 2 SB appearances from second round guys).

No sweat. It's a very, very minor point. I was more struck by that it's been four years since Kaepernick played. That seems like it was yesterday to me. I won't derail the thread about Kaepernick. It's an interesting thing, the main point. That's not a good run of drafting by teams -- at all. Don't know what to really say about it, other than playing quarterback at a high level, is really, really hard, and the few that can are probably worth even more than their salaries indicate (as a percentage of the pro football salary pie).

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To be clear, several of the QB on the list were good players and their teams just didn't do much. Here are the 30 players listed in order of Career AV and where they rank in their respective draft classes in terms of Career AV.

2011 Cam Newton (1) - 111 Career AV (#1 in 2011 draft class)
2009 Matt Stafford (1) - 102 Career AV (#1 in 2009 draft class)
2011 Andy Dalton (35) - 81 Career AV (#9 in 2011 draft class)
2012 Ryan Tannehill (8) - 76 Career AV (#6 in 2012 draft class)
2012 Andrew Luck (1) - 71 Career AV (#9 in 2012 draft class)
2015 Jameis Winston (1) - 54 Career AV (#2 in 2015 draft class)
2016 Jared Goff (1) - 50 Career AV (#6 in 2016 draft class)
2016 Carson Wentz (2) - 45 Career AV (#9 in 2016 draft class)
2011  Colin Kaepernick (36) - 45 Career AV (#29 in 2011 draft class)
2015 Marcus Mariota (2) - 44 Career AV (#7 in 2015 draft class)
2014 Blake Bortles (3) - 44 Career AV (#17 in 2014 draft class)
2010 Sam Bradford (1) - 44 Career AV (#35 in 2010 draft class)
2014 Teddy Bridgewater (32) - 38 Career AV (#29 in 2014 draft class)
2009 Josh Freeman (17) - 38 Career AV (#36 in 2009 draft class)
2012 Robert Griffin III (2) - 37 Career AV (#50 in 2012 draft class)
2009 Mark Sanchez (5) - 34 Career AV (#44 in 2009 draft class)
2014 Jimmy Garoppolo (62) - 27 Career AV (#54 in 2014 draft class)
2011 Christian Ponder (12) - 22 Career AV (#69 in 2011 draft class)
2011 Blaine Gabbert (10) - 16 Career AV (#82 in 2011 draft class)
2013 Geno Smith (39) - 15 Career AV (#85 in 2013 draft class)
2011 Jake Locker (8) - 15 Career AV (#86 in 2011 draft class)
2012 Brandon Weeden (22) - 14 Career AV (#98 in 2012 draft class)
2012 Brock Osweiler (57) - 14 Career AV (#98 in 2012 draft class)
2010 Tim Tebow (25) - 12 Career AV (#108 in 2010 draft class)
2013 E.J. Manual (16) - 10 Career AV (#112 in 2013 draft class)
2014 Johnny Manziel (22) - 5 Career AV (#122 in 2014 draft class)
2010 Jimmy Clausen (48) - 3 Career AV (#160 in 2010 draft class)
2016 Paxton Lynch (26) - 2 Career AV (#198 in 2016 draft class)
2009 Pat White (44) - 1 Career AV (#182 in 2009 draft class)
2016 Christian Hackenberg (51) - 0 Career AV (#237 in 2016 draft class)

Overall, 9 of the 30 players ranked in the Top 10 in Career AV in their draft classes.

My eyes are not what they once were. I completely missed and forgot about Derek Carr (2014 - 36th pick). So he would be the one player on the same team in 8 drafts out of 31 QBs drafted.

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25 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Most QBs bust.  Is it foolhardy to draft one unless he’s an Andrew Luck type?  Better off trading for one and drafting a top player at a different position?

 

I might also consider trading back for more picks and not drafting what very well could be yet another bust.

Edited by Leroy Hoard
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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Another thing - a lot of top colleges went to spread offenses around that time and nfl teams failed to adapt.

Excellent point...it feels like the NFL is adapting to these type of QBs much better now.

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Rookie pay scale has made taking more shots at qb a better strategy for a franchise. Does that align with short term gm and coach plans? Maybe not but it’s very difficult to win consistently or win a super bowl without great qb play. Keep drafting them. Knowing what to look for obviously helps as well. 

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20 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Rookie pay scale has made taking more shots at qb a better strategy for a franchise. Does that align with short term gm and coach plans? Maybe not but it’s very difficult to win consistently or win a super bowl without great qb play. Keep drafting them. Knowing what to look for obviously helps as well. 

Keep on drafting them and failing is one of the reasons some teams are always drafting high.  At some point take a different strategy with your draft and trade for a QB.

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31 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Most QBs bust.  Is it foolhardy to draft one unless he’s an Andrew Luck type?  Better off trading for one and drafting a top player at a different position?

 

Here are all the QBs drafted in the past 20 years that rank in the Top 10 in their draft class in terms of Career AV. Maybe that's not the best metric to compare players at different positions, but there aren't many other ones available. Maybe Career AV inflates the value of QB(a case certainly could be made) . . . maybe all draft classes aren't created equal. And of course, these numbers and rankings will change over time.

2020 Justin Herbert (Pick #6, Rank #2)
2019 Kyler Murray (Pick #1, Rank #1)
2019 Daniel Jones (Pick #6, Rank #6)
2019 Gardiner Minshew (Pick #178, Rank #7)
2018 Lamar Jackson (Pick #32, Rank #1)
2018 Josh Allen (Pick #7, Rank #5)
2018 Baker Mayfield (Pick #1, Rank #9)
2017 Patrick Mahomes (Pick #10, Rank #2)
2017 Deshaun Watson (Pick #12, Rank #3)
2016 Dak Prescott (Pick #135, Rank #1)
2016 Jared Goff (Pick #1, Rank #6)
2016 Carson Wentz (Pick #2, Rank #9)
2015 Jameis Winston (Pick #1, Rank #2)
2015 Marcus Mariota (Pick #2, Rank #7)
2014 Derek Carr (Pick #36, Rank #4)
2012 Russell Wilson (Pick #75, Rank #1)
2012 Ryan Tannehill (Pick #8, Rank #6)
2012 Kirk Cousins (Pick #102, Rank #8)
2012 Andrew Luck (Pick #1, Rank #9)
2011 Cam Newton (Pick #1, Rank#1)
2011 Andy Dalton (Pick #35, Rank #9)
2009 Matthew Stafford (Pick #1, Rank #1)
2008 Matt Ryan (Pick #3, Rank #1)
2008 Joe Flacco (Pick #18, Rank #4)
2006 Jay Cutler (Pick #11, Rank #4)
2005 Aaron Rodgers (Pick #24, Rank #1)
2005 Alex Smith (Pick #1, Rank #3)
2005 Ryan Fitzpatrick (Pick #250, Rank #8)
2004 Philip Rivers (Pick #4, Rank #1)
2004 Ben Roethlisberger (Pick #11, Rank #2)
2004 Eli Manning (Pick #1, Rank #3)
2003 Carson Palmer (Pick #1, Rank #2)
2002 David Garrard (Pick #108, Rank #9)
2001 Drew Brees (Pick #32, Rank #1)
2001 Michael Vick (Pick #1, Rank #7)

I don't know if that number is high, average, or low compared to other positions. It's hard to compare, as there are multiple players on the field at the same time for almost every other position.

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31 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Rookie pay scale has made taking more shots at qb a better strategy for a franchise. Does that align with short term gm and coach plans? Maybe not but it’s very difficult to win consistently or win a super bowl without great qb play. Keep drafting them. Knowing what to look for obviously helps as well. 

I always hear this....how many teams have done this successfully? The Chiefs but that's a bit of an aberration. Seems like teams with Brady, Brees, etc have won a lot of playoff games.

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8 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Keep on drafting them and failing is one of the reasons some teams are always drafting high.  At some point take a different strategy with your draft and trade for a QB.

Was there a SB winning team that traded for their QB? I can't think of one. I don't really count Eli Manning or John Elway, as both were traded before ever playing a game. The Packers traded for Brett Favre, but he had yet to start an NFL game.

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9 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Was there a SB winning team that traded for their QB? I can't think of one. I don't really count Eli Manning or John Elway, as both were traded before ever playing a game. The Packers traded for Brett Favre, but he had yet to start an NFL game.

Steve Young was the last I think 

Joe Theisman

 

Edited by belljr
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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Was there a SB winning team that traded for their QB? I can't think of one. I don't really count Eli Manning or John Elway, as both were traded before ever playing a game. The Packers traded for Brett Favre, but he had yet to start an NFL game.

Good point.  However, I’ve seen players do well with a change of scenery.  Sometimes teams also give up too early on QBs, but most are bad or mediocre.  Throw away enough first round picks on mistakes and you’re constantly at the bottom looking up.  Perhaps teams need to do better research.  For the life of me how does the Vikings draft Ponder?  You would think the Chargers could have found out more about Leaf between the ears.

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Take the Jets for example. They picked Sanchez 5, and he wasn’t very good. They picked Darnold top 3 and he’s not the answer. Should they draft the qb they are highest on with pick 2 in this deep qb draft or just do something different because it didn’t work before? They’re not going anywhere until they get the qb so they need to draft whichever guy they feel has the most promise at 2. 

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2 minutes ago, belljr said:

Steve Young

Didn’t Joe Montana lead the Chiefs to the playoffs also?  Doug Williams?  Or was he a FA?  Fran Tarkenton went to 3 Super Bowls after being traded from the Giants back to Minnesota. Jim Plunket?  Chargers should have kept Brees.

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4 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Take the Jets for example. They picked Sanchez 5, and he wasn’t very good. They picked Darnold top 3 and he’s not the answer. Should they draft the qb they are highest on with pick 2 in this deep qb draft or just do something different because it didn’t work before? They’re not going anywhere until they get the qb so they need to draft whichever guy they feel has the most promise at 2. 

The Jets are to QB what the Patriots are to WR. Since the Jets drafted Joe Namath, their first round picks have been so-so . . .

1976 - Pick 6 - Richard Todd - 48-59-1 and 2-2 in the post season
1983 - Pick 24 - Ken O'Brien - 50-59-1 and 0-2 in the post season
1984 - Pick 10 (Supplemental) - Ken Hobart (Never played in NFL)
2000 - Pick 18 - Chad Pennington - 44-37 and 2-4 in the post season
2009 - Pick 5 - Mark Sanchez - 37-36 and 4-2 in the post season
2018 - Pick 3 - Sam Darnold - 13-25

Pennington was decent and they had a couple of teams with good defense with Sanchez. Which begs the question, if the team isn't very good, what are the chances a team would improve with a rookie signal caller? In theory, wouldn't a team be better served to try to build out the roster first and then add a QB to make them a really good team?

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Didn’t Joe Montana lead the Chiefs to the playoffs also?  Doug Williams?  Or was he a FA?  Fran Tarkenton went to 3 Super Bowls after being traded from the Giants back to Minnesota. Jim Plunket?  Chargers should have kept Brees.

I guess my question would be are teams that trade for QBs any more likely to win than teams that drafted an early round QB? Most QB trades are either guys that didn't work out or players that were mostly unproven backups and traded to another team.

IMO, trading for an established top level QB could be a lose - lose for both teams, The team with the QB will have to eat a huge salary cap hit. And the team acquiring the QB might have to mortgage their future in draft picks and/or players.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

I guess my question would be are teams that trade for QBs any more likely to win than teams that drafted an early round QB? Most QB trades are either guys that didn't work out or players that were mostly unproven backups and traded to another team.

IMO, trading for an established top level QB could be a lose - lose for both teams, The team with the QB will have to eat a huge salary cap hit. And the team acquiring the QB might have to mortgage their future in draft picks and/or players.

At least you know some of what you’re getting.   As posted by @Anarchy99build a team before drafting your QB.  It would do wonders for their confidence.

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1 minute ago, ajm27501 said:

Not to derail this topic, but who rates higher than Mahomes???

OT Ryan Ramczyk NOS . . . only because he's started 63 of 64 games. Mahomes sat his first 15 games in the league and has played in 46 games by comparison.

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5 minutes ago, ajm27501 said:

Not to derail this topic, but who rates higher than Mahomes???

That's exactly what I was about to post.

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

The Jets are to QB what the Patriots are to WR. Since the Jets drafted Joe Namath, their first round picks have been so-so . . .

1976 - Pick 6 - Richard Todd - 48-59-1 and 2-2 in the post season
1983 - Pick 24 - Ken O'Brien - 50-59-1 and 0-2 in the post season
1984 - Pick 10 (Supplemental) - Ken Hobart (Never played in NFL)
2000 - Pick 18 - Chad Pennington - 44-37 and 2-4 in the post season
2009 - Pick 5 - Mark Sanchez - 37-36 and 4-2 in the post season
2018 - Pick 3 - Sam Darnold - 13-25

Pennington was decent and they had a couple of teams with good defense with Sanchez. Which begs the question, if the team isn't very good, what are the chances a team would improve with a rookie signal caller? In theory, wouldn't a team be better served to try to build out the roster first and then add a QB to make them a really good team?

In a perfect world, they would build a great team and then get the qb. If they do that, team might get good in a few seasons. But if you have a good team, you aren't picking 2nd overall. You find the qb and everything else can happen after that. You can open a decade+ long window of adding surrounding talent. 

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Also at least Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Paxton Lynch really should not have been drafted in the first round.

Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson maybe should have been.

 

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4 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

In a perfect world, they would build a great team and then get the qb. If they do that, team might get good in a few seasons. But if you have a good team, you aren't picking 2nd overall. You find the qb and everything else can happen after that. You can open a decade+ long window of adding surrounding talent. 

In general, with jobs on the line and pressure to win immediately, coaches and QBs rarely get the chance to build something sustainable. I am not convinced that quarterbacks drafted in the Top 5 or 10 picks are THAT much better picks than QBs drafted later than that. So teams that have talent (but might bot win a ton of games) could still be in position to get a decent QB in the middle of the first round (or develop someone as a Day 2 pick.

On Opening Day last year, there were 11 starting QBs that were not first round picks (four 2nds, a 3rd, two 4ths, three 6ths, and a 7th). The other completely different issue to QB strategy is the salary cap component, which is a topic for a completely different thread.

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5 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

 Throw away enough first round picks on mistakes and you’re constantly at the bottom looking up.  Perhaps teams need to do better research.  For the life of me how does the Vikings draft Ponder?  You would think the Chargers could have found out more about Leaf between the ears.

Maybe it's not so much where they were drafted as who was it that drafted them.

Edited by Leroy Hoard
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44 minutes ago, Boston said:

Bingo...so much of it is going to a good Coach and an organization.

I've been hearing for years now that teams win with an elite QB and you really can't win without one. It sounds like what you are suggesting is that the coach and organization seem to be more important to a team's success than the QB. That being said, since 1992, the Super Bowl has been won by teams with a current or very likely future HOF QB in 25 of those 29 years (the exceptions being Foles, Flacco, Dilfer, and Brad Johnson). Obviously the secret formula is having a great QB, great coach, and great organization (and teams falling short in one of those areas may make the playoffs but probably won't win the title).

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I've been hearing for years now that teams win with an elite QB and you really can't win without one. It sounds like what you are suggesting is that the coach and organization seem to be more important to a team's success than the QB. That being said, since 1992, the Super Bowl has been won by teams with a current or very likely future HOF QB in 25 of those 29 years (the exceptions being Foles, Flacco, Dilfer, and Brad Johnson). Obviously the secret formula is having a great QB, great coach, and great organization (and teams falling short in one of those areas may make the playoffs but probably won't win the title).

I am saying the key is that you have both, a good Coach/organization and a good QB...I have done this before but if you look at the list of Hall-of-Fame QBs and Coaches they both are usually tied up with each other (or at least with someone that is very good)...Brown/Graham, Starr/Lombardi, Tarkenton/Grant, Stabler/Madden, Bradshaw/Noll, Staubach/Landry, Kelly/Levy, Brady/BB, Aikman/Johnson, Griese-Marino/Shula, Montana/Walsh, Elway/Reeves-Shanny, Unitas-Namath/Ewbank, Dawson/Stram, Fouts/Coryell, Manning/Dungy, Young/Siefert...from a coaching standpoint after you look at this list you really have to be impressed with Joe Gibbs who won three with three different non-Hall-of-Fame QBs...on the flipside I look at a guy like Archie Manning and I have zero doubt that if he had played for a Madden/Landry/Noll type of Coach he would be looked at far, far differently...one other thing...with the rule changes and salary cap I think the QB position is that much more important in today's game...the days of keeping a D together like the Steel Curtain for a long period are long gone...if you look at the teams that have sustained success for long periods of time recently they have Brady, Brees, Ben, Rodgers and Wilson at QB and BB, Payton, Tomlin, McCarthy-LaFleur and Carroll as Coaches...the team that has been able to do it best without a franchise QB (until they got Lamar) is Baltimore but they have an excellent Coach, are one of the better franchises in the NFL and also had two all-world defensive players and leaders in Lewis and Reed...so, my long-winded point is more often then not you need the combination of QB/Coach/organization to win in the NFL and that has been true for good portion of the modern history of the league and will continue to be that way.

Edited by Boston
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