Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah, that would make more sense. I assume this time of year everyone is listing their picks.
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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ok yeah that’s more sensible. Though I would love to see something like this because it would be chaos & glorious. lol
As a Niner fan I’ve talked myself into and out of all these guys over the last month. I’ve landed where I started - if Shanahan sees something in Mac worth gambling his job on, then more power to him, I guess.
Deamon
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We’re talking about the dude who didn’t draft Mahomes or Watson. Just sayin....As a Niner fan I’m not convinced that Shanny can evaluate a young QB, so putting that much faith in him seems unwarranted.
also why deal that much draft capital for a dude who they coulda taken with a trade up to 6, or maybe even no trade at all.
Since the Niners deal, Mac Jones has been rumored to be “the guy” but no one considered him a high 1st until after the Niners made the deal & speculation was rampant that it would be Jones, presumably because he’s the most Cousins-like dude in the draft.
So which came 1st, the chicken or the egg? If the Niners didn’t make that deal, not one analyst would be speculating about Jones in the top 3 & he likely would have been there for the Niners. At the worst they coulda dealt up to 6 (apparently) for much less of an investment.
so far as I can tell, the only thing driving Jones stock higher is the rumor that he’s the Niners pick.
So I will never talk myself into accepting that he’s the guy, because again, he wasn’t considered to even remotely be the guy until the Niners traded up. And it makes zero sense to spend that much for Mac friggin Jones.
At this point even if they draft him and he’s amaze-balls, they STILL overpaid by a lot to get him. He’d need to lead them to 4 straight Super Bowls to have any semblance of ROI.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The old double secret rumor that Fields is the dude the niners want so the Jets second guess themselves & take Fields leaving Wilson for the Niners?
it’s possible, but very unlikely.
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't buy this at all. The Jets are not going to change the guy they're locked in on, just cause they hear that another team might like a different guy. I have zero doubts that the Jets are locked into their guy (whoever it is).
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Like I said - very unlikely, but until Goodell comes out and reads the pick, it’s possible that the Jets take anyone not named Lawrence.
The problem is that you/we are speculating based on less than perfect information. IIRC there was some reporting that someone else in the top 10 might have been interested. All it takes is one other team to (stupidly, perhaps) have him way higher than the mocks project. If you feel like he’s the QB from this group that won’t bust, I can see the argument for moving up. And to be fair to Shanahan, he didn’t bother evaluating the QBs you mentioned because they had the plan to get Cousins. Was that a good plan? Of course not, but that goes to a deficiency in their strategic thinking more than Shanahan’s evaluation abilities.
and I get all the knocks on Jones. He doesn’t seem to have the traits that you spend that kind of draft capital to acquire. But as I alluded to in my prior post, there are really compelling cases to be made against Fields and Lance, too. My biggest concern at this point isn’t Mac over any of those guys, it’s whether any of the 3 were worth trading up for at all.
facook
Footballguy
I keep hearing in media how good Lynch/Shanny are at drafting. They have two hits....Bosa was a no-brainer and they luck-boxed into Kittle. They were as bad as the Bears in the Trubisky/Watson/Mahomes draft and haven't exactly torn it up any other year.
At this point I'd rather they take Pitts and write off the draft pick losses than take Jones and be set back another 5 years, with some other loser castoff coach picking up the pieces. I am a HUGE Shanny fan as an OC. As the decision maker on personnel, he/they are not awesome.
Fred Warner is a first team all pro too. Deebo and Aiyuk have looked good. They’ve drafted a few other solid starters. It’s not a hall of fame front office but they are probably league average at worst.
Deamon
Footballguy
No Slam-Dunk player according to who? I think Shanny believes there's a slam dunk player at 3.The interesting thing to me is that the 9ers spent a whole lot to move up to 3 and there’s no slam dunk player that they’re going to take. Doesn’t mean it’s right or wrong. But when a Raiders fan thinks that a team made a questionable draft decision, that’s saying something
joey
Footballguy
I guess I’m saying when a team trades 3 1st to move up so dramatically, I feel like "we" know who the obvious target is. Seems like it’s just me...
Deamon
Footballguy
"we" don't know everything. Again, I firmly believe that Shanny and Co. strongly believe they have a home run type guy at 3 that was worth trading up for. I'm pretty sure they're locked into a certain guy and are enamored with him. We'll see if he was right in a couple years.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Pitts would be fun, but they have to swing for the fences on a “QB of the future” while their window of opportunity is open.
as for their draft record, Kinlaw was a solid pick. They’ve hit on more than Kittle & Bosa.
But they absolutely missed on Watson/Mahomes.
this pick has to be a QB.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, Kinlaw, Warner, Debo, Aiyuk, Kittle, Bosa - that’s a lot of talent.
And at the time Bosa was picked there was another solid defensive player on the board, so they still had to choose. I think they made the right choice.
They’ve struggled to find secondary help & they missed on QBs. Beathard was a total swing and a miss.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I disagree here. I think there are 3 potential slam dunks in Wilson, Fields & Lance.The interesting thing to me is that the 9ers spent a whole lot to move up to 3 and there’s no slam dunk player that they’re going to take. Doesn’t mean it’s right or wrong. But when a Raiders fan thinks that a team made a questionable draft decision, that’s saying something
All 3 are potentially great next gen QBs. Physical specimens who could develop into stars in this league.
Trading up the 49s absolutely know one of those 3 will be there for them & clearly the Niners feel that the at least one of the players likely to be there for them is a slam dunk.
Just because it’s not obvious to us doesn’t mean they didn’t know which they were making the move to get.
Another reason I think Jones is all smoke and no fire.
Deamon
Footballguy
I think they know who the Jets are taking and know who they are taking. We may not, the media may not, but I think Shanny knew who the #2 and #3 picks were going to be the day he traded up.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
bouji
Footballguy
They probably should have just waited until draft night to move up; however, they must really love one of these prospects to move up so aggressively.
I noticed something earlier this week watching the pro days of both Lance and Fields. They both started taking their shotgun snap with their right foot back. In college, they both took every snap with their left foot back. I know that Shanahan teaches QB's to take their snaps with their right foot back.
Of course, it could be nothing, but I found it very interesting to see such a stark mechanical change right after the 49ers traded up for the #3 pick.
I noticed something earlier this week watching the pro days of both Lance and Fields. They both started taking their shotgun snap with their right foot back. In college, they both took every snap with their left foot back. I know that Shanahan teaches QB's to take their snaps with their right foot back.
Of course, it could be nothing, but I found it very interesting to see such a stark mechanical change right after the 49ers traded up for the #3 pick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dolphins let it be known they were selling the pick.
at the BBQ of life, there are two kinds of teams: the quick & the hungry.
there’s no guarantee the pick would have still been there to deal for on draft day. Heck there’s no guarantee it would have been there in a week.
That’s the 1st I've heard of that. Remarkable, if true. How’s you notice that? And where’d you see that they both changed?
bouji
Footballguy
This is Trey Lance at his pro day. https://youtu.be/8b_6dAK-aRg?t=221
Trey Lance during a game. https://youtu.be/3dZb_kFMjJI?t=311
Justin Fields pro day. https://youtu.be/IuqqKAdVQU8?t=263
Justin Fields during a game. https://youtu.be/4qPuGB8385M?t=19
I suspect it's probably because both Lance and Fields recently began coaching with John Beck. AFAIK, the 49ers have been using him as a conduit to get around the COVID-19 rules.
They might still draft Jones. It's hard to say at this point. If you believe the national media, they are all saying in unison it will be Jones; however, the local guys have been saying it's going to be Lance for a while now.
FWIW, here are examples of Jimmy G, Beathard, and Mullens proving my point.
https://youtu.be/cnzNbHxksgc?t=40
https://youtu.be/jqNoeEu_HIs?t=30
https://youtu.be/CUufSyLp8-I?t=28
I have taken a look at Cousins mechanics from his time with Washington while Shanahan was there and now, and they are completely different as well.
Faust
MVP
Reported by Dalton Johnson after William McFadden tweeted it out:
Did Fields make Shanahan tweak for his second pro day?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Actually it would seem like a poor reason to sacrifice so many draft picks and the opportunity cost of drafting another QB that may be better in the long run. It’s not like Fields couldn’t start right away either.
With that said if they really think Jones is the best choice for them and is the best prospect then they shouldn’t worry that I t’s “too early” for him.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That makes more sense than a rando on this forum critically observing their footwork. We have some sharp football guys here but that’s just next level detail.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree - said yesterday that I wouldn’t be surprised to see JimmyG traded before the end of day 1.
It’s not just that it’s “too early”, it’s that it doesn’t make sense to deal away that much draft capital to reach for him.
in that light, it’s absolutely too early to take him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
But you’re basing that on what the mock drafts showed and what the talking heads were saying at the time about where Jones would go in the draft. We have little idea what NFL GMs and scouts were thinking at the time. Maybe Shanny just wanted to make sure he got his guy - with franchise QBs you can’t get cute sometimes.
Look at how narratives change. Before it seemed like the Jets were locked in on Wilson he seemed to be the consensus no. 2 QB in the draft and he was getting Mahomes comparisons. After the Jets were locked in all of a sudden every story is how the Jets would be/are making a huge mistake by not taking Fields - but these same pundits have SF passing on Fields as well to take Jones, without mentioning how big of a mistake that will be.
I’m not sure what will happen but I do know most analysts will try and claim they were right all along no matter what happens.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Can’t say that I agree about the JimmyG part. SF fashions themselves as a legit title contender. Starting a rookie QB Week 1 will likely set them back closer to the pack.
As far as Garoppolo goes, he has a no trade clause and a big contract. IIRC, only the Jags, Jets, and Broncos as currently constituted could take on his current contract and still be under the salary cap.
Most teams will need Garoppolo to rework his deal BEFORE leaving SF, which would prohibit his new team to give him a new deal AFTER they acquired him (only one contract amendment allowed per year). Any team that traded for him would have to be able to add him and be under the salary cap right then and there.
Bottom line, the Niners are unlikely to get a first for Jimmy G and the trade market at this point will be difficult to navigate. Remember there are still guys like Bridgewater and Minshew out there. I don’t think it will be all that easy to trade Garoppolo (and they probably need him this season anyway).
bouji
Footballguy
Him and Lance were both doing it before their second pro days though. AFAIK, the only difference between the pro days one and two for both of them was the 49ers were involved in the workouts they wanted to see from each player.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
Would you rather they take Jones at 3 than Pitts, if that's their choice? I agree they need to take a qb. I just am afraid they're going to take the wrong one.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes. And then I would be pissed about it until Jones proved he was worthy of the pick. Which he wouldn't be, since they coulda dealt up to 6 to take him presumably for much less.
Pitts is a luxury pick if you already have the QB of the future. That would be a scary offense if JimmyG could stay healthy & play well. We have 1 season's example of him doing so, which doesn't inspire confidence. It would be fun to see and it will never happen. Again, they could have dealt to 6 for less and taken Pitts too.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Who said anything about a 1st?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'm basing it on the fact that Jones was a complete afterthought until the Niners made that trade & all of a sudden the rumor mill exploded that it was for Mac freakin Jones.
And I strongly suspect it was Mac freakin Jones agent who started the rumors.
lol
I agree with the 2nd part - and I believe that's Fields or Lance. Prior to moving up & the rumor mill working overtime on the subject it coulda been Wilson too. And in that context it makes perfect sense for the Niners to spend that much to move up & take that "next gen" QB.
At the time of the trade, people were suggesting Jones because he was the best comp to Cousins, and everyone believes Shanny has a type, and that type is a slow-footed accurate passer who makes quick decisions. But interesting to note, there's audio of Shanny describing his "dream QB" and he basically described Wilson, Lance or Fields. Big, strong, athletic, mobile & with good peripherals who can be cerebral as well.
So when you take out the speculation that Shanny has a type, (which sounds inaccurate based on Shanny's words) it makes no sense for it to be Jones at 3 when everything to that point indicated he'd be sitting there for the Niners at 12. I'm still not convinced that Mac Jones is a top 20 pick.
I haven't seen too much about the Jets making a mistake with Wilson. I think he's still the consensus QB2 on the board. Maybe a couple pundits thirsty for attention saying it should be Fields.
I agree with this 100%. Especially Mel.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The 49ers. At least according to Albert Breer, who said he was told it would take at least a first round pick to get SF to listen to a potential trade offer involving Garoppolo.
rockaction
Footballguy
The Twitterverse is howling about it. It's like they went into Fields's house on Halloween and took his kid's candy or something.I haven't seen too much about the Jets making a mistake with Wilson. I think he's still the consensus QB2 on the board. Maybe a couple pundits thirsty for attention saying it should be Fields.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I remember doing the same thing as a Bills fan. I think I ended up not factoring in Mayfield as it became clear the Browns were taking him. The guy highest on my list ended up being Josh Rosen with Lamar Jackson next and Josh Allen last
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You don’t move three first round picks plus to take a TE, WR, or OT. There has been no precedent for that. Pitts could be a HOF TE and even then likely not worth it (due to shorter careers for TE). IIRC, there have only been a couple of Top 5 TE picks, let alone multiple picks involved to move up that high for one
I have seen some crazy talk of SF trading back for more than they invested to move up, but that sounds like insanity to me.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
Yeah, that’s a good lesson in not getting too wrapped up in the predraft analysis.I remember doing the same thing as a Bills fan. I think I ended up not factoring in Mayfield as it became clear the Browns were taking him. The guy highest on my list ended up being Josh Rosen with Lamar Jackson next and Josh Allen last
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