49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft

[Hot Sauce Guy]

2 minutes ago, farfromforgotten said:

This definitely could have all of the makings of a "dramatic Green Room fall". 

"When will Mac Jones, once thought to be a lock to the 49ers at 3, finally hear his name called on day 3”

FIFY

Picturing an unwashed, scruffy-3-day shadow of a patchy young guy beard, flies buzzing around a disheveled Mac Jones, who’s just wishing to be picked, or for a merciful death, or a baloney sandwich or something. 

[Leroy Hoard]

22 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

C’mon people, the pick will not be Jones.  0% chance.  

Say What?

[Hot Sauce Guy]

13 hours ago, killface said:

I keep reading too that the 49ers have ruined the board for the other teams wanting to trade up because they gave up so much to get so little.  They have set the trade bar way to high and no other sane team is willing to pay that kind of penalty to move up

There is no doubt this is a make or break move.  Put me strongly in the camp that the coach and GM will be gone in 2 years and the 49ers will be a disaster for a decade because of this move.  

 

 

Someone drinkin that haterade.  

First off, where are you reading that? Link?  

I’m hearing that other teams are likely going to try to trade up to 4-7 for whichever of the 3 SF doesn’t take & will offer quite a bit to do so. 

And “worst case scenario” they get a dude who’s solid in the pocket, played in an NFL-ready system, has great footwork & threw 41 TD with just 4 Int. That doesn’t sound horrible - he’s just not mobile like Fields or Lance.

Speaking of Lance, that dude played what, 1 game?

Now, my preference is fields, but I’m pretty sure Shanahan knows more about QBs than I do, and I’m pretty sure he knows more than you as well. 

I highly doubt it’s a career ender for either Shanny or Lynch & I don’t think it’ll ruin the team for a decade unless Jones comes in all psycho and takes a lead pipe to Kittle, Aiyuk & Debo’s kneecaps. 

Edited April 28 by Hot Sauce Guy

[Hot Sauce Guy]

13 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

ATL should take Surtain, as he would solve a lot of their defensive problems (which has been way more of a problem than the offense has been). But they would probably take Pitts (who IMO is starting to get a bit overvalued at the spot it will take to draft him).

they also already have a very solid move TE who they seem to like quite a bit. They just acquired him last year, so I’m not sure why they’d be taking a TE when they have glaring needs on the defensive side of the ball. 

IMO Atlanta takes a QB or trades down. Surtain would also be a fine option, I agree.  

 

[Blackbear]

9 hours ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

The best non QB in the draft.

And the name of this one is? 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

14 hours ago, thecatch said:

I don’t think Shanahan genuinely has a list of 5 he’d be happy with. 
 

Niners fans freaking out about Jones should listen to Simms’s scouting report - he’s been making the podcast rounds the last couple of weeks. Who knows if he’s right (he’s got a decent track record in a small sample size), but I think he’s at least fleshing out what Shanahan is seeing in these prospects. 

Yeah, agree with the first part. 
 

to the 2nd point, I’m warming to Jones slightly, though I still would rather see Fields sit & learn for a year like young QBs did back in the day. 

Coach him up & maybe strike gold with the next Mahomes. 

But if the feeling inside the Niners is that they’re ready to win this year & can’t do it with JimmyG, then I get the Jones love. 

i still don’t see why they couldn’t have moved to 6 to Get him at lower cost. 

[Dr. Octopus]

6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

they also already have a very solid move TE who they seem to like quite a bit. 

I don't know who they will take, but no one passes on a generational talent because they have Hayden Hurst on the team already.

[Dr. Octopus]

5 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

And the name of this one is? 

Per most pundits, Pitts.

[killface]

13 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Someone drinkin that haterade.  

First off, where are you reading that? Link?  

I’m hearing that other teams are likely going to try to trade up to 4-7 for whichever of the 3 SF doesn’t take & will offer quite a bit to do so. 

And “worst case scenario” they get a dude who’s solid in the pocket, played in an NFL-ready system, has great footwork & threw 41 TD with just 4 Int. That doesn’t sound horrible - he’s just not mobile like Fields or Lance.

Speaking of Lance, that dude played what, 1 game?

Now, my preference is fields, but I’m pretty sure Shanahan knows more about QBs than I do, and I’m pretty sure he knows more than you as well. 

I highly doubt it’s a career ender for either Shanny or Lynch & I don’t think it’ll ruin the team for a decade unless Jones comes in all psycho and takes a lead pipe to Kittle, Aiyuk & Debo’s kneecaps. 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/26/2021-nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/?cid=nbcsports

There is the latest link where I have read it

Not having those pics will be killer unless this kid is a superstar.  You add in the fact that most of the guys won't be superstars and the fact that most people think 3 is way to high Jones and lots of scouts think he is going to have a mediocre career moving forward.  You don't mortgage your future for a guy that people are split on whether he is good or not.

I'm not excited by Lance either to be fair.  I wasn't a fan of this trade out of the gate.  I think it's worse now that it appears the pick is going to be Jones

 

Edited April 28 by killface

[Hot Sauce Guy]

12 minutes ago, killface said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/26/2021-nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/?cid=nbcsports

There is the latest link where I have read it

Not having those pics will be killer unless this kid is a superstar.  You add in the fact that most of the guys won't be superstars and the fact that most people think 3 is way to high Jones and lots of scouts think he is going to have a mediocre career moving forward.  You don't mortgage your future for a guy that people are split on whether he is good or not.

I'm not excited by Lance either to be fair.  I wasn't a fan of this trade out of the gate.  I think it's worse now that it appears the pick is going to be Jones

 

Meh

1st, Peter King says a lot of things. I’m respecting his input less and less. He seems to make stuff up & call it “league sources” more often than I’d like. 

You seem to be ignoring the plethora of young talent on the 49s current roster.

They are literally a QB away from being an elite team. 

So worst case scenario: Niners take Jones and he’s a complete bust (seems unlikely, but ok, worst case). They're still just a QB away, and free agency is a thing that happens.  

They could still get a FA QB if they need to. It’s not like the draft is the only means of obtaining players. They also still have all their other picks in those future drafts, so it’s not like they have no picks. And if Jones is as bad as you believe, they will be good picks, right? 

Your take is an outside possibility with an extremist viewpoint. I don’t see it as realistic. They’re still a good football team. It is unlikely to ruin them for a decade. 

 

Edited April 28 by Hot Sauce Guy

[killface]

13 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Meh

1st, Peter King says a lot of things. I’m respecting his input less and less. He seems to make stuff up & call it “league sources” more often than I’d like. 

You seem to be ignoring the plethora of young talent on the 49s current roster.

They are literally a QB away from being an elite team. 

So worst case scenario: Niners take Jones and he’s a complete bust (seems unlikely, but ok, worst case). They're still just a QB away, and free agency is a thing that happens.  

They could still get a FA QB if they need to. It’s not like the draft is the only means of obtaining players. They also still have all their other picks in those future drafts, so it’s not like they have no picks. And if Jones is as bad as you believe, they will be good picks, right? 

Your take is an outside possibility with an extremist viewpoint. I don’t see it as realistic. They’re still a good football team. It is unlikely to ruin them for a decade. 

 

I see a defense that is lacking talent outside the dline

I see an offense without a true number 1 wr, a solid rb and holes on the oline

I see big salary increases coming for a number of guys

I do think they have window (although i think the d is going to be a problem) but that window (without picks especially) is going to close fast

Whether you like King or not the guy is dialed in.  I have read it from other places as well. 

 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

30 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don't know who they will take, but no one passes on a generational talent because they have Hayden Hurst on the team already.

Hurst isn’t Pitts, but he’s certainly a serviceable TE on a team with a lot of holes. I just see ATL with more pressing needs. 

It’s a tricky situation for ATL. Ryan is 35. If they see their “win-now” window as 2-3 years, maybe Pitts does make the most sense. 

But if they take Pitts, and Ryan starts to show his age in 2022, 2023, Pitts can’t throw to himself & they don’t hVe much behind Ryan.  

That said if they really are trying to deal Julio, I guess Pitts makes more sense in that context. 

 

[killface]

Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Hurst isn’t Pitts, but he’s certainly a serviceable TE on a team with a lot of holes. I just see ATL with more pressing needs. 

It’s a tricky situation for ATL. Ryan is 35. If they see their “win-now” window as 2-3 years, maybe Pitts does make the most sense. 

But if they take Pitts, and Ryan starts to show his age in 2022, 2023, Pitts can’t throw to himself & they don’t hVe much behind Ryan.  

That said if they really are trying to deal Julio, I guess Pitts makes more sense in that context. 

 

They certainly may go with Pitts but you don't build a team around a TE.  I agree they should fill other holes instead

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just now, killface said:

I see a defense that is lacking talent outside the dline

You don’t think they have elite LBs? You must be watching a different team becasue Fred Warner is a complete player, and absolutely elite. 

Just now, killface said:

I see an offense without a true number 1 wr, a solid rb and holes on the oline

OL needs help, but they aren’t built to need a “true number 1 WR” the way Shanahan dials up plays. And Aiyuk or Debo can take the Pepsi challenge against most DBs, so I’m not sure what the point is. 

As for the the RBs, they have a very solid committee. Mostert was the man when healthy. When he wasn’t it was next man up. And all of the Niners RBs were productive, an indication that the system was more responsible for the production. 

Just now, killface said:

I see big salary increases coming for a number of guys

I see a salary cap increasing next year. 

Just now, killface said:

I do think they have window (although i think the d is going to be a problem) but that window (without picks especially) is going to close fast

Whether you like King or not the guy is dialed in.  I have read it from other places as well. 

It’s not about whether I like King or not. I question King’s credibility when he claims inside sources for a team that hasn’t been known to leak in the last couple of years. 

[killface]

10 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

You don’t think they have elite LBs? You must be watching a different team becasue Fred Warner is a complete player, and absolutely elite. 

OL needs help, but they aren’t built to need a “true number 1 WR” the way Shanahan dials up plays. And Aiyuk or Debo can take the Pepsi challenge against most DBs, so I’m not sure what the point is. 

As for the the RBs, they have a very solid committee. Mostert was the man when healthy. When he wasn’t it was next man up. And all of the Niners RBs were productive, an indication that the system was more responsible for the production. 

I see a salary cap increasing next year. 

It’s not about whether I like King or not. I question King’s credibility when he claims inside sources for a team that hasn’t been known to leak in the last couple of years. 

Warner is a beast...the rest is the problem

Maybe but i disagree.  I think you need a guy you can can count on in that big moment.  We can agree to disagree here

I don't disagree but I also think the 49ers struggled on the ground when they needed those on the ground yards

As you stated above, King knows way more than you or I (you were speaking about the coaches)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

 

1 minute ago, killface said:

As you stated above, King knows way more than you or I (you were speaking about the coaches)

With reporters it’s not about what they know; it’s about their credibility. 

King has made comments about having inside sources that simply strain credibility. I used to like him more before he started doing that.

He also frames statements as if they’re attributed to Shanahan when they’re really just Peter King assuming something about the way Shanahan thinks.  Those are not the same thing. the biggest & most recent was his saying what he believes Shanahan wants with Jones being the “coach on the field”. And he only said it after others assumed/projected Jones was the target based on his being an amalgam of Cousins/Ryan/etc type QBs.

and I wouldn’t have any issue with it, had King just said that. But it was framed as if he got it from the horse’s mouth, when we know he didn’t. 

Jones may well be the pick. And King may well be correct about all of it. But it seems kind of wearily to attribute comments to others, like a hedge if he’s wrong. 

Hey, if Jones is the pick I’ll question it a little purely for the value prospect. But he may turn out to be a great player & worth every bit of the draft equity they paid to move up for him. 

One QB scout who called in to 95.7 The Game on Monday was talking up Jones as a borderline elite prospect based on quick decisions, ability to process multiple reads & his elite footwork. He also said while he’s no Lance or Fields, he’s also not as slow-footed as Cousins or Ryan, citing his 4.6 40 time. But what caught my ear especially was when asked why the Niners would pay so much to trade up for a guy who may have been there at 12, he disagreed & said we have no idea of what other franchises may have done - that it’s possible Atlanta would have taken Jones at 4, or trade down to a team who wanted him. 

So with Jones, my only concern is the overpay. I’ve watched him play - kid can spin the rock. He is not as physically gifted as Lance or Fields, but then, neither was Peyton Manning.

That doesn’t mean picking Jones will kill the franchise for a decade & ruin the careers of Shanahan & Lynch. We can agree or disagree about a lot of things (and for what it’s worth the #1 receiver when they really need that catch is named “kittle”) but I think you were being a bit hyperbolic there. 

Shanny would be welcomed by literally every team as an OC, and Lynch has been excellent. It’s a bold move to make this pick, and it will certainly be a footnote in the careers of both men. But their body of work will not be overshadowed by this one pick regardless of how it works out. Jones likely isn’t the next Peyton Manning, but he’s unlikely to be the next Ryan Leaf. 

[Capella]

King is the most inside nfl reporter there is. Maybe Schefter but that’s it. He talks regularly to almost every GM in the league. 

[Anarchy99]

18 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

You don’t think they have elite LBs? You must be watching a different team becasue Fred Warner is a complete player, and absolutely elite. 

OL needs help, but they aren’t built to need a “true number 1 WR” the way Shanahan dials up plays. And Aiyuk or Debo can take the Pepsi challenge against most DBs, so I’m not sure what the point is. 

As for the the RBs, they have a very solid committee. Mostert was the man when healthy. When he wasn’t it was next man up. And all of the Niners RBs were productive, an indication that the system was more responsible for the production. 

I see a salary cap increasing next year. 

It’s not about whether I like King or not. I question King’s credibility when he claims inside sources for a team that hasn’t been known to leak in the last couple of years. 

Based on PFF performance grades, Warner was elite last year but essentially average the two years prior. That's not my opinion . . . that's theirs.

The salary cap is not expected to take a major jump next year. From what I have seen, they will be back on the $10M increase per season track that they have been on for awhile (pre-COVID). The contract reporting websites are predicting just that . . . an increase from $182.5M to $192.5M.

If there is a bigger jump, that is not slated to take effect until the 2023 season. The CBA carries a built in lag, so even if the league makes more money, they built in staggered increases across many years to level out the salary cap increase across the life of the agreement.

I have heard talking heads discussing that the salary cap is going to shoot up to like $250M with the new tv and gambling deals . . . to which I say, sure, in 6 or 7 years, but not next year.

[ghostguy123]

I would bet just about anything that not only will Atlanta NOT take a QB at 4, I am convinced they trade down.  

TE is already a spot where it's hard to justify a top 4 pick, let alone if you maybe have a 2 year window trying to win with Ryan.  TEs generally are not stand out players as rookies.

If they end up trading Julio I still think they trade down

Edited April 28 by ghostguy123

[LawFitz]

King says Jones hated by the fans and media, but well-respected in the coaching and scouting community... "Looks like a damn good QB to me, and Kyle Shanahan knows QBs..."

Okay, then. Shanny takes Jones and it'll be Jones vs. Fields/Lance for the rest of his days in SF. Fascinating flag planting if it happens. I still like Fields most, but Simms is saying it's gonna be Mac too, based on issues with Fields throwing technique. Their eye test is better than mine, I suppose. Or not. Time and space to tell.

[Hot Sauce Guy]

29 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Based on PFF performance grades, Warner was elite last year but essentially average the two years prior. That's not my opinion . . . that's theirs.

not sure what the point here is. Players often improve over time. Warner did that. He’s elite now. How are the two years prior relevant? 

 

[massraider]

2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don't know who they will take, but no one passes on a generational talent because they have Hayden Hurst on the team already.

Number of head coaches looking at Kyle Pitts thinking, 'I don't really see any room for a guy like this in my offense':

Zero.  

[Anarchy99]

13 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

not sure what the point here is. Players often improve over time. Warner did that. He’s elite now. How are the two years prior relevant? 

 

Different strokes for different folks. IMO, someone that strung together 3 elite seasons in a row is an elite player. A player that had two average or mediocre seasons followed by one lite season could have just had a really good season. To me, repeatability is part of what makes a player elite. There are way more guys that had one good season than went back to their usual level than there are guys that stayed at an elite level for multiple years. That's how I look at things, but opinions will vary.

[Anarchy99]

3 minutes ago, massraider said:

Number of head coaches looking at Kyle Pitts thinking, 'I don't really see any room for a guy like this in my offense':

Zero.  

I agree with your statement, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Pitts is the right pick for a team. For starters, the bust rate on early drafted TEs is pretty high. As in very few of them have come close to being worth their pick. Second, even if said TE was a capable and productive player, tight ends in general have a usable shelf life half that as QB / WR / OL / Etc.

I can't remember which team was being discussed with regard to Pitts, but if it was ATL, even if he is the best non-QB in the draft that again doesn't mean drafting him would be what's best for the Falcons. They have had issues with their defense for years. Adding a top TE to a typically high producing offense does nothing to improve the defense.

That's like remodeling your bathroom when your house has a seriously leaky roof. That's compounded by talk of ATL drafting a QB (which would be even less smart). They are conjoined with Ryan for multiple years and a boatload of money. They would than have two players for one spot (which again does nothing for their defense). IMO, they should avoid the temptation to draft Pitts or a QB, take the best package they can get, and use those assets to fix their defense. Ryan still is one of the better and higher rated QB in the league. Pitts would be a luxury when they have other glaring needs. (W can add in the talk of trading Julio Jones into the mix here as well.)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

11 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Different strokes for different folks. IMO, someone that strung together 3 elite seasons in a row is an elite player. A player that had two average or mediocre seasons followed by one lite season could have just had a really good season. To me, repeatability is part of what makes a player elite. There are way more guys that had one good season than went back to their usual level than there are guys that stayed at an elite level for multiple years. That's how I look at things, but opinions will vary.

He had 124 tackles, 118 tackles and 125 tackles. (85/89/79 Solo) 

He had 1 pick in 2019, 2 in 2020. He took his 2019 pick to the house. 

His 3 years look remarkably similar. Where are you seeing 2 “mediocre” seasons? 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

16 minutes ago, massraider said:

Number of head coaches looking at Kyle Pitts thinking, 'I don't really see any room for a guy like this in my offense':

Zero.  

It’s not about having room for him. My point (that the good Doctor was responding to) is that the Falcons are a team with a lot of holes & offense wasn’t why they lost so many games. If they could move to 6 to take al elite corner it might better serve their win-now window. 

I wouldn’t hate the pick for them, or any team taking Pitts. Just looking at the Falcons and trying to see what helps them the most. Given their multiple needs, if they’re not taking a QB it might be smart to move down & gain players/picks. 

[SoBeDad]

Just now, Anarchy99 said:

I agree with your statement, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Pitts is the right pick for a team. For starters, the bust rate on early drafted TEs is pretty high. As in very few of them have come close to being worth their pick. Second, even if said TE was a capable and productive player, tight ends in general have a usable shelf life half that as QB / WR / OL / Etc.

I can't remember which team was being discussed with regard to Pitts, but if it was ATL, even if he is the best non-QB in the draft that again doesn't mean drafting him would be what's best for the Falcons. They have had issues with their defense for years. Adding a top TE to a typically high producing offense does nothing to improve the defense.

That's like remodeling your bathroom when your house has a seriously leaky roof. That's compounded by talk of ATL drafting a QB (which would be even less smart). They are conjoined with Ryan for multiple years and a boatload of money. They would than have two players for one spot (which again does nothing for their defense). IMO, they should avoid the temptation to draft Pitts or a QB, take the best package they can get, and use those assets to fix their defense. Ryan still is one of the better and higher rated QB in the league. Pitts would be a luxury when they have other glaring needs. (W can add in the talk of trading Julio Jones into the mix here as well.)

And today's best TEs, Kelce, Kittle and Waller were drafted in the 3rd, 5th and 6th rounds.

[Anarchy99]

13 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He had 124 tackles, 118 tackles and 125 tackles. (85/89/79 Solo) 

He had 1 pick in 2019, 2 in 2020. He took his 2019 pick to the house. 

His 3 years look remarkably similar. Where are you seeing 2 “mediocre” seasons? 

Volume stats don't always tell the story. Here are his PFF grades (which are not the only opinion that matters but they certainly have more knowledge and perspective than most of us do): 88.6 / 66.9 / 64.1. Upper 80's is top shelf. Scores in the 70's are average to slightly above average. 60's are average to below average.

PFF scores individual plays based on positioning, what should have happened, and what did happen. So a player could have a tackle but gave up 6 extra yards. That would go against him. A defensive back could have been out of position on a play where the ball was not thrown his way . . . but that would go against him. A defensive end could set the edge and force a run the other direction without being involved in the tackle at all . . . and that would help him. Or a LB could whiff on a tackle that led to a first down and extended a drive. That would go against him (and would be hard to even notice in a regular box score).

So yes, Warner had similar totals from year to year, but his overall grade was dramatically different. If nothing else, we agree he was a beast last season.

Edited April 28 by Anarchy99

[Hot Sauce Guy]

5 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

And today's best TEs, Kelce, Kittle and Waller were drafted in the 3rd, 5th and 6th rounds.

Honestly if we knew JimmyG could play 16 healthy games, how much fun would it be to see Pitts & Kittle lined up with Aiyuk & Debo? 

Unstoppable. 

[Snorkelson]

Look at the last time a fair number of 1st rd qbs came out- 2018- and peruse those mocks. I think at some point today we might get more clarity (or maybe it really is Jones) but that year was comparable imo. We can’t find out soon enough. 

[killface]

1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

With reporters it’s not about what they know; it’s about their credibility. 

King has made comments about having inside sources that simply strain credibility. I used to like him more before he started doing that.

He also frames statements as if they’re attributed to Shanahan when they’re really just Peter King assuming something about the way Shanahan thinks.  Those are not the same thing. the biggest & most recent was his saying what he believes Shanahan wants with Jones being the “coach on the field”. And he only said it after others assumed/projected Jones was the target based on his being an amalgam of Cousins/Ryan/etc type QBs.

and I wouldn’t have any issue with it, had King just said that. But it was framed as if he got it from the horse’s mouth, when we know he didn’t. 

Jones may well be the pick. And King may well be correct about all of it. But it seems kind of wearily to attribute comments to others, like a hedge if he’s wrong. 

Hey, if Jones is the pick I’ll question it a little purely for the value prospect. But he may turn out to be a great player & worth every bit of the draft equity they paid to move up for him. 

One QB scout who called in to 95.7 The Game on Monday was talking up Jones as a borderline elite prospect based on quick decisions, ability to process multiple reads & his elite footwork. He also said while he’s no Lance or Fields, he’s also not as slow-footed as Cousins or Ryan, citing his 4.6 40 time. But what caught my ear especially was when asked why the Niners would pay so much to trade up for a guy who may have been there at 12, he disagreed & said we have no idea of what other franchises may have done - that it’s possible Atlanta would have taken Jones at 4, or trade down to a team who wanted him. 

So with Jones, my only concern is the overpay. I’ve watched him play - kid can spin the rock. He is not as physically gifted as Lance or Fields, but then, neither was Peyton Manning.

That doesn’t mean picking Jones will kill the franchise for a decade & ruin the careers of Shanahan & Lynch. We can agree or disagree about a lot of things (and for what it’s worth the #1 receiver when they really need that catch is named “kittle”) but I think you were being a bit hyperbolic there. 

Shanny would be welcomed by literally every team as an OC, and Lynch has been excellent. It’s a bold move to make this pick, and it will certainly be a footnote in the careers of both men. But their body of work will not be overshadowed by this one pick regardless of how it works out. Jones likely isn’t the next Peyton Manning, but he’s unlikely to be the next Ryan Leaf. 

I guess in the end, like much of these fantasy football discussions, we will have to agree to disagree and time will tell

I gotten beaten down in the 49ers thread a couple of years ago for saying Jimmy G is not the answer.

 

[massraider]

4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I agree with your statement, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Pitts is the right pick for a team. For starters, the bust rate on early drafted TEs is pretty high. As in very few of them have come close to being worth their pick. Second, even if said TE was a capable and productive player, tight ends in general have a usable shelf life half that as QB / WR / OL / Etc.

 

I disagree with all of that.  

It's a high bust rate compared to what? Center?  OG?  

It's just not. And there's also a small sample size.  

Second, shelf life? Since when is that a problem? Pick a generation, and there's a stud TE playing into his 30's, including right now.  Which TEs burned out young?

4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It’s not about having room for him. My point (that the good Doctor was responding to) is that the Falcons are a team with a lot of holes & offense wasn’t why they lost so many games. If they could move to 6 to take al elite corner it might better serve their win-now window. 

I wouldn’t hate the pick for them, or any team taking Pitts. Just looking at the Falcons and trying to see what helps them the most. Given their multiple needs, if they’re not taking a QB it might be smart to move down & gain players/picks. 

The Falcons need about 7 defensive starters.  Well, there aren't any here.  If a Bosa was there, that's the pick.  Trade down?  OK.  But there has to be a trade to be made.  For the sake of argument, let's say there is no trade.  Well, their needs do not match best players available. Micah Parsons over Pitts would be a Georgia tragedy.  

Julio Jones is also a goner.  Who is replacing him?  Isn't receiver a need now? Not #1 need, but a need? Is this offense so bulletproof they can't use Tony Gonzales 2.0?  TE is not a pressing need for ATL. But every single team in the league has a need at whatever Kyle Pitts is.  

9 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

And today's best TEs, Kelce, Kittle and Waller were drafted in the 3rd, 5th and 6th rounds.

Take a look at your fantasy top 12 WR, and then make the case why taking a WR in the 1st is a mistake.  Diggs/Adams/McLaurin/Lockett/Metcalf/Tyreek/

[massraider]

Kyle Pitts is so good, he needs two threads

[Dr. Octopus]

17 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I agree with your statement, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Pitts is the right pick for a team. For starters, the bust rate on early drafted TEs is pretty high. As in very few of them have come close to being worth their pick.

Actually @ZWK went through and listed all TEs drafted in the top 15 picks and the results showed that most were at least "good".

[thecatch]

2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

i still don’t see why they couldn’t have moved to 6 to Get him at lower cost. 

This is the part I don’t get, but we don’t have all the relevant information, I guess.

2 hours ago, killface said:

.  You don't mortgage your future for a guy that people are split on whether he is good or not.

If you have conviction a guy is going to be great, I don’t think you need to be supported by a majority of pundits in your evaluation to justify a trade up. 

[Rodrigo Duterte]

1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

With reporters it’s not about what they know; it’s about their credibility. 

King has made comments about having inside sources that simply strain credibility. I used to like him more before he started doing that.

He also frames statements as if they’re attributed to Shanahan when they’re really just Peter King assuming something about the way Shanahan thinks.  Those are not the same thing. the biggest & most recent was his saying what he believes Shanahan wants with Jones being the “coach on the field”. And he only said it after others assumed/projected Jones was the target based on his being an amalgam of Cousins/Ryan/etc type QBs.

and I wouldn’t have any issue with it, had King just said that. But it was framed as if he got it from the horse’s mouth, when we know he didn’t. 

 

1 hour ago, Capella said:

King is the most inside nfl reporter there is. Maybe Schefter but that’s it. He talks regularly to almost every GM in the league. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

Actually @ZWK went through and listed all TEs drafted in the top 15 picks and the results showed that most were at least "good".

I did the same thing and concluded that most of them were average and not necessarily that much better than guys drafted farther back (unless ZWK's opinion is worth more than mine). And that does not consider the longevity factor. Most careers at TE last less than elite players at other positions and the peak years for most TEs is only a few seasons. So maybe two years to learn the pro game, 4 really good seasons, then 3 years of being average. That's been the trend for many TEs (not all) and IMO 400-500 yards out a Top 10-15 pick from a TE is not what I would call "good."

For example, NE drafted Daniel Graham and Ben Watson. Graham was a decent blocker but not much of a receiver. Watson played forever and had maybe 1 notable season. Would those count as "good?" or just ok?

[facook]

16 hours ago, killface said:

I keep reading too that the 49ers have ruined the board for the other teams wanting to trade up because they gave up so much to get so little.  They have set the trade bar way to high and no other sane team is willing to pay that kind of penalty to move up

There is no doubt this is a make or break move.  Put me strongly in the camp that the coach and GM will be gone in 2 years and the 49ers will be a disaster for a decade because of this move.  

 

 

I don't think it will destroy the franchise, but if they gave up all of those picks and WHOEVER they take flames out, Niners will miss this window and it will be several years before there is another.

[Dr. Octopus]

2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I did the same thing and concluded that most of them were average and not necessarily that much better than guys drafted farther back (unless ZWK's opinion is worth more than mine). 

Here is his post:

Quote

 

Here's every TE drafted in the top 16 picks since 1988, sorted by how much fantasy value they wound up having:

Otherworldly
Tony Gonzalez    1997

Great
Keith Jackson    1988
Jeremy Shockey    2002
    
Okay
Kellen Winslow    2004
Vernon Davis    2006
Johnny Mitchell    1992
Rickey Dudley    1996
    
Disappointing, but not useless
Eric Ebron    2014
Bubba Franks    2000
Kyle Brady    1995
    
Too soon to tell
T.J. Hockenson    2019

Bust   
Derek Brown    1992
    

There's a pretty small sample size, with just 12 guys, and only 2 since 2007 (including one that's too soon to tell).

There's a mix of outcomes, including one huge hit and one outright bust.

The average result (mean career VBD) is between Shockey & Winslow, which is pretty good. If you remove the best & the worst, then it drops to the Okay tier, near Vernon Davis.

Kyle Pitts is probably going to get drafted earlier than any of these guys (the earliest were Winslow & Davis at pick 6).

 

I'm not sure his opinion is worth more than yours - but if you disagree with the above in this case at least I value his more.

[Anarchy99]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Here is his post:

I'm not sure his opinion is worth more than yours - but if you disagree with the above in this case at least I value his more.

Maybe that's because I looked at CareerAV and not fantasy value. So my opinion was based on overall on-field performance value and not just offensive receiving numbers. In actual football, things like run blocking and pass protection for TEs are equally important than just receiving totals.

[Dr. Octopus]

Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Maybe that's because I looked at CareerAV and not fantasy value. So my opinion was based on overall on-field performance value and not just offensive receiving numbers. In actual football, things like run blocking and pass protection for TEs are equally important than just receiving totals.

I'm pretty sure a team drafting Pitts is not thinking his pass protection is all that valuable, since he'd be one of the biggest mismatches running patterns. Do you think he'll be asked to pass block all that much?

But even with that said, I think at least half the TEs on that list were considered good blockers.

[chinawildman]

Could be nothing but....

Niners Nation call w/ Trey Lance on Tuesday

Interviewer: "Congatulations and we hope to see you in a niners jersey on Thursday...."

Lance: "....That's the plan..." 🤫

 

[Dr. Octopus]

3 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Could be nothing but....

Niners Nation call w/ Trey Lance on Tuesday

Interviewer: "Congatulations and we hope to see you in a niners jersey on Thursday...."

Lance: "....That's the plan..." 🤫

 

That's his plan at least.

[LawFitz]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That's his plan at least.

Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face.

[ILUVBEER99]

1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

I would bet just about anything that not only will Atlanta NOT take a QB at 4, I am convinced they trade down.  

 

100% agree that if Mac Jones goes #3 that a QB at #4 is highly likely whether it's ATL or a trade down.  If ATL doesn't want to draft a QB there will be a QB needy team that will offer them a ton for the pick.

[massraider]

Even if you can't get what the Dolphins got, if you want to trade down, trade down.

The Falcons don't get better by 'winning' or losing a value chart trade. Get another 1st rounder, and move down. 

Staying put, and taking a guy just because you didn't get as much as the Dolphins is incredibly dumb. 

It's a dumb sentiment on Twitter anyway: "49ers wrecked the trade market". Ummm, no. Whatever you can get is what the market is. 

If NE calls ATL, and they want three #1s, you tell them to find another SF. When they can't, they should make the best deal they can. 

 

[ghostguy123]

People are drastically underestimating  how important it is for Pitts to be a good blocker.  That is where huge mismatches (not just for Pitts but for other guys on the offense as well) will occur.  

If he cant block, then he is a WR, and will be covered accordingly, hence not being able to utilize the occasional huge mismatch.

[Capella]

Pitts was an average blocker at UF. He will do fine in pretending to occasionally block to get a linebacker on him. 

[Ministry of Pain]

3 hours ago, Shawnky said:

Why not?  They need serious help on defense.  I would assume they’d be picking high if they go offense or don’t trade back. 

I agree and think Atlanta would be better off trading back 5-6 spots and taking Patrick Surtain, wish Miami would trade Jones at Corner who they signed for like $75M last season and get one of the elite Corners this year, several seem like sure winners vs the guy we took at 1.30 last year who's name I can't even pronounce. 

[Ministry of Pain]

1 minute ago, Capella said:

Pitts was an average blocker at UF. He will do fine in pretending to occasionally block to get a linebacker on him. 

I've been waiting for those that think Top-5 on a TE is bazonkers but few have tried to argue this. I think Pitts has tremendous upside but like most TEs it's hard to imagine him coming in a taking the league by storm.