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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft


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I'm going to say right here right now they will pick Lance over Fields.

Very much a winner.

This is why FBG pays me zero dollars for sharing my NFL acumen.

5 minutes ago, need2know said:

They paid a huge cost for a huge gamble.  Hate that pick

I would have hated it 10X more if it was Mac.

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1 minute ago, Helaire-ious said:

Does this hurt or Help Deebo & Aiyuk?

No change this year.  And no change going forward if Kyle can get him dialed in on accuracy in this system.  Aiyuk maybe ticks up a bit as a deep threat imo, after this year.

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I get that everyone has it out for Mac Jones now, but if you had told Niner fans 6 months ago they’d be dealing 3 firsts for a guy with this little experience, people would have had the pitchforks out for him instead.  

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12 minutes ago, need2know said:

They paid a huge cost for a huge gamble.  Hate that pick

 

6 minutes ago, facook said:

I would have hated it 10X more if it was Mac.

I get it, but I'll maintain that the likelihood of Jones winning a SB is higher than Lance winning one. 

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5 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Does this hurt or Help Deebo & Aiyuk?

It should help long term . This kid already has experience running a horizontal passing game.

 

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Just now, bouji said:

The story about this pick will be fascinating. I really do wonder if they were ever going to take Mac now. The idea was just completely incoherent to me.

Kawakami thinks Shanahan got talked into Lance in the last 24 hours. Who knows if kawakami is right. But if he is, there were serious problems with the process here. 

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13 minutes ago, need2know said:

They paid a huge cost for a huge gamble.  Hate that pick

To each their own I suppose because I love this pick. Sanity has prevailed.

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Just now, thecatch said:

Kawakami thinks Shanahan got talked into Lance in the last 24 hours. Who knows if kawakami is right. But if he is, there were serious problems with the process here. 

Many of us were saying that at the start. Trading to 3, before the draft, and not being 99% sure of the selection seems like something Kevin costner would do.

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7 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Many of us were saying that at the start. Trading to 3, before the draft, and not being 99% sure of the selection seems like something Kevin costner would do.

It seems to me they were dead serious about three potential QB's in this class, and they decided to pick the best scheme fit with the highest upside of the three.

Once the trade happened, everyone immediately thought of Lance. The narrative only changed once Chris Simms opened his mouth and started saying it was Big Mac.

Personally I say, bravo. What a ballsy pick.

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17 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

 

I get it, but I'll maintain that the likelihood of Jones winning a SB is higher than Lance winning one. 

You get another Cousins and hope, or you take a huge swing for a Mahomes and hope.  Frankly, I think the odds are 50/50 that EITHER (edit: either of Jones/Lance more likely than the other)  would win a SB, but the huge swing is that you get a generational guy.  Jones ain't that.

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14 minutes ago, facook said:

You get another Cousins and hope, or you take a huge swing for a Mahomes and hope.  Frankly, I think the odds are 50/50 that EITHER (edit: either of Jones/Lance more likely than the other)  would win a SB, but the huge swing is that you get a generational guy.  Jones ain't that.

I get it.  The 3 was too high for Jones. But he can be a really good QB.

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11 minutes ago, facook said:

You get another Cousins and hope, or you take a huge swing for a Mahomes and hope.  Frankly, I think the odds are 50/50 that EITHER (edit: either of Jones/Lance more likely than the other)  would win a SB, but the huge swing is that you get a generational guy.  Jones ain't that.

Yep. I imagine that's exactly the calculation the 49ers brass made.

I guess people just think it was a bad pick because they didn't draft Fields, but everyone should just keep in mind that Lance is a full year younger than Fields, so Fields' true freshman season was Lance's redshirt freshman season. Fields also has some mechanical issues that could be problematic in the NFL. He throws the ball like a baseball.

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Colossal risk at this point.  All the draft capital for a guy that has so little experience behind him.  I hate that trade.  I hated it from day 1 though because jones at 3 was nuts and everyone knew it.  The guy is going to fall into the 20s

It was fun watching everyone trying to justify him at 3

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54 minutes ago, killface said:

Colossal risk at this point.  All the draft capital for a guy that has so little experience behind him.  I hate that trade.  I hated it from day 1 though because jones at 3 was nuts and everyone knew it.  The guy is going to fall into the 20s

It was fun watching everyone trying to justify him at 3

So they should have taken Fields? Or just not made the trade at all?

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I think the Niners really f'd up. They could have paid much less to move up one pick to get Fields OR, just waited for Jones to fall to them at 12. I didn't like the trade from the beginning and I like it even less now (if that's possible). 😒

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14 minutes ago, ninerfan said:

I think the Niners really f'd up. They could have paid much less to move up one pick to get Fields OR, just waited for Jones to fall to them at 12. I didn't like the trade from the beginning and I like it even less now (if that's possible). 😒

McCorkle Jones, LMAO. So dumb. They took the QB with by far the most upside in this draft. So many ignorant, low football IQ comments in here. Lance was a homerun pick for this team/coaching staff. Get a tissue and get over it. You'll be happy they passed on pudgy Cousins and another OSU failure in no time.

Edited by SF409ers
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33 minutes ago, ninerfan said:

I think the Niners really f'd up. They could have paid much less to move up one pick to get Fields OR, just waited for Jones to fall to them at 12. I didn't like the trade from the beginning and I like it even less now (if that's possible). 😒

Trey is Shanahan's guy. He has been his guy since last January.

This kid has every single trait teams are looking for from a potential franchise QB. I actually don't understand what's not to love.

It seems to me Shanahan realizes now he screwed the pooch by passing on Mahomes and Watson, and he can't win in this league consistently without top tier talent. Also, fwiw, the Falcons, the Panthers, and the Broncos, who are in need of QB's, passed on Fields and Jones.

When teams are evaluating QB prospects, sometimes they just have to take a leap of faith and bet on the kid that he's going to figure it out at the next level. I am actually of the opinion that if this kid had played this past season, he wouldn't have even been available at #3 overall. He might have gone first overall.

If Trey Lance figures it out, nobody is going to care about those first round picks ever again. Time will tell.

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6 minutes ago, SF409ers said:

McCorkle Jones, LMAO. So dumb. They took the QB with by far the most upside in this draft. So many ignorant, low football IQ comments in here. Lance was a homerun pick for this team/coaching staff. Get a tissue and get over it. You'll be happy they passed on pudgy Cousins and another OSU failure in no time.

Yep. They swung for the fences on this one.

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It turns out the 49ers never wanted to draft Alabama quarterback Mac Jones despite rampant rumors he was the going to be their selection at No. 3 overall, and there was never even a rift between head coach Kyle Shanahan and the scouting department over whether to take Jones according to Shanahan.

The 49ers’ head coach during his post-draft press conference explained his view on the buzz around Jones and the third pick.

“Now, we wanted an opportunity to go and look at everybody, but I think just looking at this whole process, I think I was in Mexico the day we made the trade and within hours, there’s at least two people who are out there speculating that their opinions are they think we’re taking Mac Jones and ever since then, I’ve kind of just watched every single person assume that that was accurate and that those weren’t opinions, those were facts,” Shanahan said in a video conference. “We didn’t feel that way from the beginning. I wouldn’t have said there’s no chance we wouldn’t have. We were going to go through this process and I would never have said it couldn’t have ended up being him, but I know how we felt about Trey the whole time.

“To watch that happen and to kind of watch everyone just assume, because a couple people say something, that’s exactly how you feel, we weren’t going to work to correct that. At all. I thought that could be an advantage for us, especially when you look into stuff that just came out today. Stuff that, I mean, you never know with this league. If the whole NFL is assuming you’re doing one thing and you’re not doing that, I’m not going to work hard, and John, we’re not going to work hard to correct that.”

An interesting note after the pick came from ESPN’s Adam Schefter who reported on Twitter that nobody in the scouting staff nor coaching staff knew who the selection would be until it was announced Thursday night.

That would jibe with the idea that most of the speculation around who the pick would be came from places outside the building, or from people guessing inside the building. Perhaps there were deliberately laid smoke screens to help fuel those initial rumors.

In fairness to people who thought it would be Jones, he fits the traditional Shanahan type. He’s accurate, good in the pocket, and delivers on time to his receivers. That wasn’t what the 49ers’ head coach was looking for this time though.

He bucked that trend with Lance, and the silence from the building kept that possibility from really gaining steam until the hours leading up to the draft when belief Lance would be the pick became more prevalent.

It was a fascinating pre-draft process, and the 49ers apparently didn’t have to do much to fuel the confusion over who they might take with the No. 3 pick.

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49 minutes ago, massraider said:

“Now, we wanted an opportunity to go and look at everybody, but I think just looking at this whole process, I think I was in Mexico the day we made the trade and within hours, there’s at least two people who are out there speculating that their opinions are they think we’re taking Mac Jones and ever since then, I’ve kind of just watched every single person assume that that was accurate and that those weren’t opinions, those were facts,” Shanahan said in a video conference. “We didn’t feel that way from the beginning. I wouldn’t have said there’s no chance we wouldn’t have. We were going to go through this process and I would never have said it couldn’t have ended up being him, but I know how we felt about Trey the whole time.

Yep, they knew it was Lance the whole time for sure.  Still think the Jets might have told Shanny they were locked into Wilson there over a private phone call (no downside to that) and that's why SF went up there.  Seems he wanted Lance the whole time and the NFL was forcing them to be a bit quiet about it for ratings.

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8 hours ago, bouji said:

Trey is Shanahan's guy. He has been his guy since last January.

This kid has every single trait teams are looking for from a potential franchise QB. I actually don't understand what's not to love.

It seems to me Shanahan realizes now he screwed the pooch by passing on Mahomes and Watson, and he can't win in this league consistently without top tier talent. Also, fwiw, the Falcons, the Panthers, and the Broncos, who are in need of QB's, passed on Fields and Jones.

When teams are evaluating QB prospects, sometimes they just have to take a leap of faith and bet on the kid that he's going to figure it out at the next level. I am actually of the opinion that if this kid had played this past season, he wouldn't have even been available at #3 overall. He might have gone first overall.

If Trey Lance figures it out, nobody is going to care about those first round picks ever again. Time will tell.

The kid s a project.  He may very well succeed but he's a project. You don't mortgage the future for a project.

 

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6 minutes ago, killface said:

The kid s a project.  He may very well succeed but he's a project. You don't mortgage the future for a project.

 

San Fran looks terrible today.  They made a bad trade and then panicked. 

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11 hours ago, need2know said:

They paid a huge cost for a huge gamble.  Hate that pick

I get taking the risk if you own that pick

Trading 3 1st rounders though for a guy that has played 17 games at a small school. Seems insane

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Love the pick... it was Lance then Wilson, then Fields in a lower tier for me. Fields just isn't a twitchy player in my eyes. He may be fast and have a strong arm, but he doesn't "play fast". And I"m not talking about processing or any of that media BS, Fields runs more like an athlete than he does a football player. I think he fits much better with an air raid offense and never really saw the fit w SF.

I don't think experience counts for much as far as prospects go. You either develop into an impact player or you don't. He attempted about the same number of passes as Vick or Cam coming out, and they set the world afire in their rookie seasons. I think we'll find out sooner rather than later whether Trey Lance "has it" or not. My guess is he's gonna surprise a lot of people.

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2 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Love the pick... it was Lance then Wilson, then Fields in a lower tier for me. Fields just isn't a twitchy player in my eyes. He may be fast and have a strong arm, but he doesn't "play fast". And I"m not talking about processing or any of that media BS, Fields runs more like an athlete than he does a football player. I think he fits much better with an air raid offense and never really saw the fit w SF.

I don't think experience counts for much as far as prospects go. You either develop into an impact player or you don't. He attempted about the same number of passes as Vick or Cam coming out, and they set the world afire in their rookie seasons. I think we'll find out sooner rather than later whether Trey Lance "has it" or not. My guess is he's gonna surprise a lot of people.

I'm in the complete opposite of you.  Playing 17 games in a small school division matters a lot.  The NFL game is massively faster, more complex and difficult to navigate.  Dang right you better have lots of experience on the field against great competition to hone those skills

 

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19 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Love the pick... it was Lance then Wilson, then Fields in a lower tier for me. Fields just isn't a twitchy player in my eyes. He may be fast and have a strong arm, but he doesn't "play fast". And I"m not talking about processing or any of that media BS, Fields runs more like an athlete than he does a football player. I think he fits much better with an air raid offense and never really saw the fit w SF.

I don't think experience counts for much as far as prospects go. You either develop into an impact player or you don't. He attempted about the same number of passes as Vick or Cam coming out, and they set the world afire in their rookie seasons. I think we'll find out sooner rather than later whether Trey Lance "has it" or not. My guess is he's gonna surprise a lot of people.

Fair points, but one year starting in the SEC  >>>> one year in the MVFC. 

Cam brought his fair share of risk. But at least he played well against good competition.

Experience goes to risk. Sure he could be elite. But you can't overlook the higher risk here.

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1 minute ago, -OZ- said:

Fair points, but one year starting in the SEC  >>>> one year in the MVFC. 

Cam brought his fair share of risk. But at least he played well against good competition.

Experience goes to risk. Sure he could be elite. But you can't overlook the higher risk here.

The much higher risk and the much higher cost.

Again, if you own the pick then sure take the risk.  If you lose you lose your pick and that's all.  You don't mortgage the future for this high of a risk.

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1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

Fair points, but one year starting in the SEC  >>>> one year in the MVFC. 

Cam brought his fair share of risk. But at least he played well against good competition.

Experience goes to risk. Sure he could be elite. But you can't overlook the higher risk here.

 

1 hour ago, killface said:

I'm in the complete opposite of you.  Playing 17 games in a small school division matters a lot.  The NFL game is massively faster, more complex and difficult to navigate.  Dang right you better have lots of experience on the field against great competition to hone those skills

 

 

Not that I disagree with the assessment, but just how elite QBs in the league are from the SEC?

The top QBs in the NFL come from a variety of programs, I think level of competition is overstated when it comes to projecting QB prospects.

Edited by chinawildman
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1 hour ago, killface said:

The much higher risk and the much higher cost.

Again, if you own the pick then sure take the risk.  If you lose you lose your pick and that's all.  You don't mortgage the future for this high of a risk.

Absolutely, lots of risk... but IMO in terms of drafting QBs you either swing for the fences or you don't swing at all. At least when you bust you don't waste years on just being slightly above average.

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50 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

 

 

Not that I disagree with the assessment, but just how elite QBs in the league are from the SEC?

The top QBs in the NFL come from a variety of programs, I think level of competition is overstated when it comes to projecting QB prospects.

More good QBs come from the SEC than all the non-power conferences combined. Not many, and you're right that generally the SEC isn't the best conference for QB production. The SEC is much better at producing receivers and defense.  

I disagree with your point about competition not mattering for QBs but it's hard to prove when the reason the QBs go to the conference in the first place is their talent.

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53 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Absolutely, lots of risk... but IMO in terms of drafting QBs you either swing for the fences or you don't swing at all. At least when you bust you don't waste years on just being slightly above average.

And in this particular case the risk is three years worth of draft picks.  That's a lot of risk -  almost unheard of

I read this morning in over 40 years there hasn't been someone with so little experience taken in the top 10.  And again, this isn't one first round pick.  This is 3 top picks

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3 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

More good QBs come from the SEC than all the non-power conferences combined. Not many, and you're right that generally the SEC isn't the best conference for QB production. The SEC is much better at producing receivers and defense.  

I disagree with your point about competition not mattering for QBs but it's hard to prove when the reason the QBs go to the conference in the first place is their talent.

That's another excellent point that no one really brings up

He didn't have the talent to get into a good school and played very few games at a mediocre school.  So many red flags

 

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9 minutes ago, killface said:

That's another excellent point that no one really brings up

He didn't have the talent to get into a good school and played very few games at a mediocre school.  So many red flags

 

Fwiw, NDSU is currently a dynasty in DI. 8 of the last 9 championships. And produced studs like Brock Jensen, easton stick and wentz.

Edited by -OZ-
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15 hours ago, thecatch said:

I get that everyone has it out for Mac Jones now, but if you had told Niner fans 6 months ago they’d be dealing 3 firsts for a guy with this little experience, people would have had the pitchforks out for him instead.  

They should be furious about Lance and Mac. Both options were wrong. 

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3 hours ago, chinawildman said:

Love the pick... it was Lance then Wilson, then Fields in a lower tier for me. Fields just isn't a twitchy player in my eyes. He may be fast and have a strong arm, but he doesn't "play fast". And I"m not talking about processing or any of that media BS, Fields runs more like an athlete than he does a football player. I think he fits much better with an air raid offense and never really saw the fit w SF.

I don't think experience counts for much as far as prospects go. You either develop into an impact player or you don't. He attempted about the same number of passes as Vick or Cam coming out, and they set the world afire in their rookie seasons. I think we'll find out sooner rather than later whether Trey Lance "has it" or not. My guess is he's gonna surprise a lot of people.

Fields doesn’t play fast? Did you watch the Clemson playoff game? He was dragging them as far as he could against Bama too. 
 

You can’t gauge how fast Lance has played because he’s only played a handful of games against woeful teams with the word ‘Dakota’ and ‘Madison’ in their name. 

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Shanny fell in love and planted his flag, and I respect him for being a go-getta. He's now married to Lance - if they have Lombardi babies, this trade will become legendary; opposite could end SF Shanny. Feel however you do about Lance - his highlights do look exciting - the dice roll that took place here is super fun to watch. And I opine Fields was the fallback option - not Jones - which makes me intrigued by this pick even more, b/c that would mean after months of diligence, Shanahan decided he liked a similarly-tooled Lance more.

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3 hours ago, killface said:

I'm in the complete opposite of you.  Playing 17 games in a small school division matters a lot.  The NFL game is massively faster, more complex and difficult to navigate.  Dang right you better have lots of experience on the field against great competition to hone those skills

 

Except he was the only QB of the top 5 prospects to play in a PA passing system like the one Shanahan largely employs.

Also reportedly the only one to call protections behind center, run the no-huddle up tempo offense Shanny loves. And he reportedly interviewed extremely well as a highly cerebral guy. 
 

“Lance was also the lone prospect among the top five quarterbacks to spend any meaningful amount of time playing under center and running many of the play-action concepts the 49ers like to employ consistently, which could help him adapt more quickly to Shanahan's offense.”

that would all seem to fit your “experience” narrative too, no? 

——————————————

“Make no mistake: Lance isn't nearly as far away from playing as his lack of experience might lead you to believe, either. North Dakota State put a lot on Lance's plate, asking him to spit out lengthy terminology in the huddle, handle NFL-style play-action dropbacks from under center and call protections at the line of scrimmage. Lance handled all of that even as a redshirt freshman, and though he will still have a big transition to the NFL, those things should all help make it a bit easier.

———————————————

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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45 minutes ago, killface said:

And in this particular case the risk is three years worth of draft picks.  That's a lot of risk -  almost unheard of

I read this morning in over 40 years there hasn't been someone with so little experience taken in the top 10.  And again, this isn't one first round pick.  This is 3 top picks

But you also have to consider the reward that they may have the next Mahomes or Allen, just a little raw.

With risk there’s also reward. 

“It was Trey Lance, the player considered one of the biggest risks in the draft because of his small, 17-game sample at FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, but also the one who many believe boasts more upside than any quarterback in the draft.”

That quote includes Lawrence & Wilson. 

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12 minutes ago, Capella said:

You can’t gauge how fast Lance has played because he’s only played a handful of games against woeful teams with the word ‘Dakota’ and ‘Madison’ in their name. 

Level of competition is irrelevant to how twitchy an athlete is. A QB with a quick release will have a quick release regardless of who he plays... and same goes for carrying out fakes, scrambling, going through progressions, etc.

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5 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

And I opine Fields was the fallback option - not Jones - which makes me intrigued by this pick even more, b/c that would mean after months of diligence, Shanahan decided he liked a similarly-tooled Lance more.

I said exactly that last night, so completely agree. They wanted/coveted a Mahomes/Allen type. Shanny didn’t pay all that to take an immobile “safe” QB in Mac Jones. I don’t think Jones name was ever in the conversation & i can’t say enough about the efforts of Jones’s agent to hype him up into the top 11. If the Niners don’t make this deal he probably falls to the Pats without a trade. 

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5 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Level of competition is irrelevant to how twitchy an athlete is. A QB with a quick release will have a quick release regardless of who he plays... and same goes for carrying out fakes, scrambling, going through progressions, etc.

No. You haven’t seen how he does any of that with nfl caliber players in his face. It’s total projection for 300 attempts against sub-par competition. 

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47 minutes ago, killface said:

That's another excellent point that no one really brings up

He didn't have the talent to get into a good school and played very few games at a mediocre school.  So many red flags

 

That's a really terrible argument... there have been plenty of excellent NFL QBs that have come from small schools... Roethlisberger, McNair, Romo, Garoppolo, etc... 

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