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The INFLATION Thread, aka “The Putin Price Hike” (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ekbeats
- Start date
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Just trying to prevent the spread of misinformation.. What is going on?
Take it up with any self respecting economist.
You stated "inflation happens when the value of the dollar decreases in comparison to other currencies AND things get more expensive."
During 2021 the CPI has increased at nearly a 7% annualized rate.
During 2021 the value of the dollar (US
XY) has gone from 90 to 95.So prices have increased. And the dollar has gone up, not down. You and your "self-respecting economists" are wrong.
Insein
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
They raised the price on gas today by 7 cents, 3.67 a gallon. Thanks JOE!
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
OMG At least we know now unles Biden dies in office Harris will never be POTUS. Not sure even Dems would vote for Harris.
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The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Stoneworker
Footballguy
CBS interview with Neel Kashkari. This could be the very first time a Fed official has admitted that Congress' policies are having an impact on inflation from the demand side.
We're seeing both a surge of demand because Congress has given a lot of money to families and businesses to get through the pandemic, but we're also seeing supply disruptions at the same time because of the COVID virus.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-neel-kashkari-face-the-nation-11-14-2021/
We're seeing both a surge of demand because Congress has given a lot of money to families and businesses to get through the pandemic, but we're also seeing supply disruptions at the same time because of the COVID virus.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-neel-kashkari-face-the-nation-11-14-2021/
Gopher State
Footballguy
Bacon costs 27 percent more since Biden got elected. Seems like something you could be impeached for?
>>Processed meats, such as sausages, bacon and hot dogs, are high-cholesterol foods that should be limited. High consumption of processed meats has been linked to increased rates of heart disease and certain cancers like colon cancer.<<
Is bacon bad for you? I used to like bacon,
Gopher State
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
I am surprised the Biden admin has not mandated price controls. Nixon tried this in the early 70's.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Stoneworker said:
We could fix inflation this week if we stop buying stuff. He's kidding - sort of.
It really is as simple as pent up pandemic demand + flush with cash (just look at that chart if you doubt) + supply disruptions.
Demand will eventually subside, excess cash will be spent, and supply chains will unkink. Meanwhile people with a job and especially people with a job in industries where wages are matching inflation (it's happening in aggregate, but that doesn't mean everyone is benefitting) will see the real value of their debt decrease via the inflation.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Thank you, member of Team Transitory.
So far Team Transitory has been 100% wrong about inflation. From the start it has been much higher, broader and longer lasting than any of the Yellen/Powell/Democrat-economist school predicted. Their denials and mis-characterizations are well documented.
Team Transitory has zero credibility to be making any more predictions about the future. It's just noise at this point. At least they should get the current situation under control first. And we are far from that.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If it's not pandemic demand, trillions in cash payments and supply chain issues -- what is it?
Or are you arguing those three features will last forever?
Or are you arguing those three features will last forever?
Nugget
Footballguy
Economists think Build Back Better will help curb inflation long term
I'm not sure if they are "Democrat" economists, but the Nobel prizes are nice.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Honestly, I'm still trying to figure it all out myself. I would agree those three were definitely the "triggers."
But they have already triggered other things that could take some time to ramp up but be far stickier cost pressures IMO.
For example, wage pressures, rent pressures, reduced workforce participation (i.e. which would reduce supply further while not affecting demand), domestic U.S. oil and gas companies that have underinvested over the past decade to focus on paying off debt and therefore cannot quickly ramp up to make up for OPEC. Etc.
Also the 30-year globalization of the supply chain that has been a major deflationary force is unwinding to focus on resiliency after the pandemic. Another one in the wrong direction.
Also, the Fed is between a rock and hard place with interest rates. Raising them to fight inflation will destroy asset prices, raise interest payments on national debt and risk major recession. So can't react quickly or strongly.
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
If Biden is correct that inflation is transitory, then why does he need a 10-year spending program to fight it?
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Biden has 50 years experience
What's happening is planned, structured, executed and very well exactly what this administration wants
Poor people will get poorer, middle class will get poorer ...... this is going to happen and it was easy to predict/see
Biden voters knew this
What's happening is planned, structured, executed and very well exactly what this administration wants
Poor people will get poorer, middle class will get poorer ...... this is going to happen and it was easy to predict/see
Biden voters knew this
The Commish
Footballguy
Just trying to prevent the spread of misinformation.
You stated "inflation happens when the value of the dollar decreases in comparison to other currencies AND things get more expensive."
During 2021 the CPI has increased at nearly a 7% annualized rate.
During 2021 the value of the dollar (US
So prices have increased. And the dollar has gone up, not down. You and your "self-respecting economists" are wrong.
It does. It would really benefit you to read the context of quotes. Here you are trying to frame this as me saying the only way inflation happens is if the dollar decreases in value and prices go up. Far from it. The question that was asked was around the value of the dollar and costs shooting up so those were the only two things mentioned. Again, in that conversation, "costs going up" <> "inflation". They are simply costs going up. NONE of that conversation had ANYTHING to do with the particulars of the situation we are in. I've said a multitude of times in this thread and others that the unchecked printing of money during the year 2020 as well as the pumping of money into the economy (which ended in Sept) are really large factors in this entire thing. It's going to take a while to get the desire/demand side down from it's inflated levels even if we didn't have the supply issues we have. As stated in July, it was always going to get significantly worse before it got better. Where I think the error was made was the supply chain issues. Many figured it would be into Dec/Jan...now it's looking more like Apr/MayIf there is a short term solution it's to slow the demand side. People will lose their #### at an increase of interest rates though.
Nugget
Footballguy
It is more than just an anti-inflation bill. Investing in America seems like a bipartisan goal.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
It cost $82 to fuel up my pickup last week. I need my diesel truck to pull a horse trailer but don’t drive it much in the winter months fortunately.
I don’t know how the trucking companies are dealing with these fuel prices or how independent truckers can fill their tanks without crying.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Great post.
As you suggested, I'm still TT, but, best case, it's going to be a longer unwind than I expected. And I've always said I could be wrong and the Fed needs to keep an eye on it. Given wage growth in the last few months and the benefits of inflation to debtors, I'd still be slow to pull the trigger but I'm definitely more concerned than I was.
Downstream from your link showing a huge transfer from services to goods, post start of the pandemic.
Aren't we in a better place to fight inflation than during the 1970s and 1980s due to a low unemployment rate?
https://twitter.com/pentaquarky/status/1460284815123435527?t=oz7CwTMq2ptAbdetXSKLCA&s=19
Sand
Footballguy
Good thing Joe put in place a secretary who abandoned his post for 2 months during this.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
I don't know but I've heard concerns that the Fed can't battle inflation this time with a raise in interest rates because that would kill our ability to service our debt.
Sand
Footballguy
Just remember that as much as inflation helps debtors that it inflates asset prices. So with this you have to swallow increased wealth inequality. This administration is making this choice - let's hope they're honest about the effects of what they're doing (or not doing) here.
Nugget
Footballguy
I find it strange that you continue to attack a man for spending time with his infant children.
Sand
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
I find it strange that we don't acknowledge that some positions, should you choose to accept them, don't realistically carry with them the ability to take 2 months off. I find it mind boggling that some folks do.
This is a Cabinet level position.
There are lots of jobs available. Maybe she's right during this time of excess cash and low unemployment with millions of unfilled jobs.
Nugget
Footballguy
1. I'd bet he was working everyday. Some people can work from home now. They can also delegate work. And we have smart phones now.
2. Paternity leave is important and more men need to normalize it. Paternity leave helps women not get left behind when they take maternity leave.
3. Do you want the Sec. of Transportation more involved in the supply chain? Most on the right are for less government involvement and more market solutions. Trying to get a feel for what role you think the government should be playing.
The Commish
Footballguy
Not sure that's really good at all if I'm being honest
Though I also understand, as it pertains to the US side of the supply chain in this specific instance, there should be no doubt our ability to get the virus under control is going to be key. This isn't a conventional problem we are facing in terms of supply/demand and how quickly the US workers can take the necessary steps to get back to work, the quicker we get this resolved. I may be missing something, but can you point to something specific his presence would have fixed here?
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Sand
Footballguy
She just has no concept that inflation is a permanent erosion and the excess cash she's talking about has had the spigot turned off. There is already evidence from credit card debt numbers that Americans have run through the cash and are back putting things on their cards.
rustycolts
Footballguy
If I remember correctly he tried or did freeze wages too. Could be wrong but I seem to recall something like that.
Medicare Part B premiums to jump $21.60, one of the largest increases ever. Half of that is due to contingency planning for Aduhelm, the drug for Alzheimer's disease that was approved by the FDA against the advice of experts. That eats into the average $92 SS COL increase for vulnerable seniors paying more for food, energy, and medicines. The latest compromise on the stimulus excludes Medicare negotiation on New drugs. Easy solution is to tell the FDA to reconsider its ill-advised decision on Aduhelm, as there are 3 other similar drugs from Lilly, Eisai, and Roche/Genetech in the pipeline for FDA approval. BTW, the drug infusions would be administered in doctors offices and infusion centers, that's why it's Part B. The clinical & cognitive benefits/risks are yet to be in favor of these drugs per most experts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/floridanewstimes.com/alzheimers-disease-drug-quoted-as-medicare-premium-jumps-21-60-2/376590/%3famp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/floridanewstimes.com/alzheimers-disease-drug-quoted-as-medicare-premium-jumps-21-60-2/376590/%3famp
Gopher State
Footballguy
National average for gas is $3.41 a gallon, up 60 percent from last year. Enjoy your drive to Your thanksgiving dinner this year, and then thank Joe for the extra cost it takes to get their.
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Nugget
Footballguy
How much of the increase in the price of gas is driven by increased demand, how much by Biden's policies, and how much should Joe interfere with the market?
GoBirds
Footballguy
Why would that change with Covid still running rampant?
More of a political decision for you?
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
Joe is President - he gets all the glory
and all the blame - Biden has been doing this Govt thing 50 years - he should have known what was coming and what to do, right ?
Either he's surprised - which is disturbing, or its planned ... which is disturbing
Energy prices have leaped globally in the last three months. Natural gas has soared almost 600% this year, and international oil benchmark Brent crude is up more than 60% year to date. Currently, crude is hovering around $82 per barrel.
“The Biden administration’s restrictive actions — no to pipelines, no to drilling, no to the financing of oil and gas projects overseas ... is a stunning reversal of the energy independence achieved under the Trump administration,” Rick Perry told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/08/rick-perry-biden-policies-could-lead-to-disaster.html
Stealthycat
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Agreed, we have it every year and never missed one. To skip it last year then act like it's back now....when covid is still as uncontrolled as ever is quite interesting.
Nugget
Footballguy
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Here is the gas demand:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2M.htm
Doesn't look like demand is up. Pretty similar levels compared to 2018-2020.
Here are the US imports:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9100us2m.htm
Looks like imports are at similar levels from 2018-2019, but up compared to 2020.
Here are the US exports:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9130us2m.htm
This show that exports are way up compared to 2018-2020.
Nugget
Footballguy
Now if she can solve how to string along a coherent thought we might get somewhere. Just sad.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
You're right. Here is gasoline:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/gasoline.php
Looks like demand is up from a year ago, as well as US production.
Demand a year ago: 8.483 million barrels per day (4 week average today 9.430)
US Supply a year ago: 9.105 million barrels per day (4 week average today 10.091)
Imports a year ago: 0.512 million barrels per day (4 week average today 0.588)
Total demand v supply a year ago: 8.483/9.617 (diff 1.134)
Total demand v supply today: 9.430/10.679 (diff 1.249)
From the looks of it, the supply we have on a daily basis is higher today than it was a year ago.
DISCLAIMER: I admit, I could be reading the charts wrong. But it doesn't look like supply and demand are too much different than a year ago.
EDIT: When I looked at 2019 (Covid really messed with the 2020 supply/demand numbers), the US supply was definitely higher than 2021. The imports for 2021 are waaaaay up compared to 2019. Which would lead me to speculate that the US supply was reduced due to Biden policies. When the demand increased, we were now forced to import larger amounts of gas at higher prices because US companies were no longer supplying at high amounts. Admittedly, that's my non-expert look at the charts.
2019 Total demand v supply today: 9.145/10.526 (diff 1.381)
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Nugget
Footballguy
Based on your numbers (Supply as a percentage of demand)
2019 (10.526/9.145) = 115.10%
2020 (9.617/8.483)= 113.37%
2021 (10.679/9.430)= 113.24 %
I don't see a huge change in the supply/demand ratio - Demand went up and more supply was made available to receive it.
Interesting article on oil prices from back in 2014 - Five Thirty Eight on Oil Supply and Demand
IIRC, OPEC wouldn't scale down on production between 2015-2018 and it became unprofitable to invest in new fracking and oil opportunities in the US. Lots of companies were over leveraged and when COVID hit they went under or had to deleverage. Now, OPEC can keep the price up and be more profitable and we don't have the ability to flip the production switch.
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