Rich Conway
Footballguy
This sounds right, in theory. In practice, I wonder if companies will (eventually) fall right back into "let's cut costs and do it for less" mode in order to increase their competitive advantage.Stoneworker said:
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The INFLATION Thread, aka “The Putin Price Hike” (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ekbeats
- Start date
The Commish
Footballguy
I think the larger event that's going to determine a lot of this is the realization that people were working in jobs that paid #### and really didn't do anything to further their lifestyle. I suspect that's going to be a rather large factor as businesses have to pony up the extra money to make it worth the while of their employees. The band aid of illusion has been ripped off.
Sand
Footballguy
If that's the case (and I expect it to be), then the new normal with particular respect to durable goods - cars, houses, appliances, etc. is going to take a big, big bite out of budgets.
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
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Shula-holic
Footballguy
I think they will where they can. I'm not sure they'll be able to in large measure.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Max Power
Footballguy
This article ruined my wife's evening
rustycolts
Footballguy
Dog food I get my dogs up 4 bucks in one week. That hurts got a 120 lb Bloodhound a Frenchie and 2 Shi Tzus. They may have to quit the eating habit.
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
Max Power
Footballguy
Just wait until the truck drivers start quitting.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/some-truckers-chose-to-quit-instead-of-complying-with-federal-vaccine-mandate/
https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/some-truckers-chose-to-quit-instead-of-complying-with-federal-vaccine-mandate/
Mile High
Footballguy
Close to 80% now have at least one shot. How many truck drivers do you figure are in the remaining 20%?
Max Power
Footballguy
Aren't truck drivers in the demographic most hesitant? So my guess would be a good amount. Even losing a small % is going to hurt.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
New York Post had a story that said inflation is costing people an extra $175 a month. Going to get worse.
Sparky Big Time
Footballguy
The reckless printing of money over the last 15 years was bound to catch up eventually.
Sand
Footballguy
Good thing Congress recognizes this and is abstaining from huge, unfunded spending bills.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Rich Conway
Footballguy
I suspect the more immediate reason is front-line workers being underpaid for decades, thus keeping prices artificially low, and those workers have finally now started to stop taking work at such low rates.
Sand
Footballguy
No worries - their replacements are being imported by the millions over the southern border.
Sparky Big Time
Footballguy
Interesting theory, with companies starved for employees it would seem that the sparse numbers that have returned would then have to present a considerable impact.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I could quit my job as a lawyer with all the free money I've been getting from the government (yes hyperbole). I get $475 a month for pre-payment of child tax credit (If only I had more eligible kids). $300 a month for reimbursement for driving my kids to school. $375 every few months in food stamps for some City of Philadelphia lunch program (I have no idea what it is, they sent me a card with money on it and keep refilling it). If I was getting the max in PA UC $575 a week, that's equivalent to around $50K a year salary for doing nothing. Eventually, those programs will stop, and then those people who sat at home living off the government will be scrambling for work.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
You'll need to explain to me what you mean by artificially low. From an economics viewpoint, the artificial part is the government intervention which is creating labor shortages, resulting in further supply chain issues, and inflation.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
We are trying to get the damn child tax credit payments to stop. Has anyone here tried that? My business was a loser last year due to covid but it won't be this year. We can't get them to stop the checks. I had to go through some kind of ID process and provide my driver's license and image along with a facial image they require on my phone. They still send them to my wife who is a teacher and refuse to quit without her getting on a video call with them during the workday which as a teacher she can't. We can't even turn down the government money it's so bad.
The Commish
Footballguy
Max Power
Footballguy
I tried to turn my off as well, but ran into the same issues. I was never able to get to a page where I could.
I'm supposed to be getting them, but shockingly I haven't received anything yet.
I also haven't received my tax return which I filed in April. Why? Because I claimed I never received my final stimulus. The IRS sent a letter saying I was correct and they would add that to my refund, but I should expect it to add another 6 weeks processing time. Then I got a letter adding another 6 weeks.
I'm probably on a watchlist now or something.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Yep, that's where I began my journey. It is every bit of that. The IRS has basically subbed out a 3rd party company to ID you if you try to cease the payments and they don't make it easy.
As to the why, we will be phased out in 2021 but they are using 2020 income of which other than rental and passive investments I had none. Either way I'd prefer not to take it and have to pay it back, but they aren't even using direct deposit. They are sending monthly physical checks that we are having to deposit because they are going to expect the money back that we don't want them to send in the first place.
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Shutout
Footballguy
Oh yeah, brother...They are watching you. You're gonna get a letter soon saying they are auditing...JK>
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Real wages are historically low, in terms of adjusted dollars. If real wages had kept up over the past 50+ years, prices would be higher. Now that employers are having to pay wages more in line with historical norms, prices are catching up.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I understand, but I don't see anything artificial that caused it. I'm afraid we are all about to find that inflation is going to outpace the wage growth piece, leading to less purchasing power. It's inevitable when we are flooding the market with more dollars alongside encouraging a decrease in productivity.
Shutout
Footballguy
It's already showing. Joe Biden said we made progress today with a happy face. Touted that wages grew 4%. I guess nobody told him Inflation grew 5.3%. We are already losing ground but Nobody told Joe.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
If you'd prefer the phrase historically low instead of artificially low, I'm fine with that.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I don't know that the terminology matters. I do have a different opinion of the result. I don't think real wages are likely to rise once we factor in inflation. The rising cost of entry level/lower level wages is only a part of what's driving the inflation so I'm afraid when the dust settles the real wages of people will be less.
The Commish
Footballguy
I'd throw it in a temporary investment account and make SOMETHING on it then just give it back when they ask. My neighbor pointed me to that page and said that's how he did it. Had no issues. Not sure what the difference is/was. Hope you can figure it out GB.
The Commish
Footballguy
2020 was certainly a big problem in this scenario. I guess the good news (if there is one) is we basically took 20ish billion bucks out of the economy in Sept when stimulus was stopped. It's going to take through the holidays to fully realize that impact for sure, which sucks, but hopefully that helps. We won't be fully "right" until supply chains get opened up and the economy resets with the new realization that businesses who have been suppressing wages for 15-20 years can't get away with it now.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Entirely possible. My original point was that I think the most immediate cause of current inflation has more to do with wages rising to what should have been historical norms than the fed printing money. Printing money without regard for the debt/deficit or a budget has happened for decades, while rising wages are a recent phenomenon.
Sand
Footballguy
I believe it has more to do with the commodity super cycle we're currently in combined with the government paying folks to stay home.
The Commish
Footballguy
We printed almost 25% of our money currently in circulation in 2020. Weve taken out of circulation around 20B all at once in Sept (stopped paying people in sept)
I cant help but think commodities arent real high on our problem list
Sand
Footballguy
Social Security adjustment for 2022 - 5.9%. That's the largest in 40 years. Given that this calculation is as conservative as the feds can make it we can be assured the real inflation rate is substantially higher.
Good thing this inflation thing has been sitting at temporary for a while now.
Good thing this inflation thing has been sitting at temporary for a while now.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
YoY increases:
Ground beef: + 10.6 percent.
Steaks: +22.1 percent.
Bacon: +19.3 percent.
Pork roasts, ribs, steaks: +19.2 percent.
Chickens: +17.1 percent.
Fresh fish: +10.7 percent.
Eggs: +12.6 percent.
Peanut Butter: +6.2 percent.
Apples: + 7.8 percent.
Ham: +7 percent.
Baby food: +4.4 percent.
ETA: Wholesale prices up 8.6%.
Ground beef: + 10.6 percent.
Steaks: +22.1 percent.
Bacon: +19.3 percent.
Pork roasts, ribs, steaks: +19.2 percent.
Chickens: +17.1 percent.
Fresh fish: +10.7 percent.
Eggs: +12.6 percent.
Peanut Butter: +6.2 percent.
Apples: + 7.8 percent.
Ham: +7 percent.
Baby food: +4.4 percent.
ETA: Wholesale prices up 8.6%.
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Sand
Footballguy
WH chief of staff - "inflation is a high class problem".
Yep, rich people are the only ones that eat, heat/cool their house, or fill the car with gas. Joe's admin is on top of this - good thing it's a 1% problem.
Yep, rich people are the only ones that eat, heat/cool their house, or fill the car with gas. Joe's admin is on top of this - good thing it's a 1% problem.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
I ordered mine off Amazon tonight and will commence to stick them next week - just a friendly reminder to Biden voters
The Commish
Footballguy
Someone may want to have a talk with the bond market. It hasnt been clued in on whats going on allegedly.
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Shula-holic
Footballguy
I think the choir that was singing that has packed it in. Even Larry Summers has had some pointed comments lately about it.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Put up a better candidate. Do you think 81M people voted for Joe, or do you think 81M people voted against Trump.
I personally hope neither of them run next election.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
The current inflation is still mainly a result of supply and demand. Fix the supply chain issues and inflation will take care of itself.
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