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Redraft: Handcuff value Vs Breakout backup value? (1 Viewer)

Would you trade a lottery ticket RB2 to handcuff an elite RB?

  • Yes, I’d feel more comfortable with the handcuff

    Votes: 9 21.4%

  • No, I’d rather have the lottery ticket.

    Votes: 33 78.6%
  • Total voters
    42
Hot Sauce Guy

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
If you had Jones, would you trade him to the Kamara owner to handcuff your RB1? 

Or would you rather hold onto Jones for his potential breakout value if Kamara were to get banged up? 

Trying to decide this for myself right now and thought it might be an interesting question for the sharks. I’ve heard different philosophies for this over the years. 

Hypothetically say it’s for a top 3 RB’s handcuff, who likely doesn’t have Jones’ stand-alone value without injury.

Would you rather secure your backfield or hope for the lottery ticket to come through? 

 
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 I'd personally much rather have the lottery ticket/backup in a big offense as a lottery ticket.

 Now that said, I generally handcuff my big volume guys, (and I rarely get top 5 RBs) but a certain few like CHUBA HUBBARD, TONY POLLARD, AND TONY JONES I'm trying to get everywhere regardless.  The stars align and they could be season savers/league winners.

 TZM

 
TZMarkie said:
 I'd personally much rather have the lottery ticket/backup in a big offense as a lottery ticket.

 Now that said, I generally handcuff my big volume guys, (and I rarely get top 5 RBs) but a certain few like CHUBA HUBBARD, TONY POLLARD, AND TONY JONES I'm trying to get everywhere regardless.  The stars align and they could be season savers/league winners.

 TZM
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Ok, perfect. So, say Chubba is your CMC handcuff, but you don’t have him. 

You have Jones. The Kamara owner offers you Chubba.

What do you do?

 
LawFitz said:
The concept is imperfect, but let's just say as a Jacobs owner I will sleep better this week since I also have Drake.

Every situation is different. YMMV and Tony JJ has juice!
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Same question then: you have Jones, and the Kamara owner has Drake. 

He offers you Drake for Jones. WDYD? 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Ok, perfect. So, say Chubba is your CMC handcuff, but you don’t have him. 

You have Jones. The Kamara owner offers you Chubba.

What do you do?
Click to expand...


 I don't generally land top 4-5 RBs, I have a massive history of getting late draft slots. (Plus in a couple leagues if I pull a mid rd pick I go to the end, but anyway)

I get you are asking the difference in value between Hubbard and Jones.

Well, I think Jones might be "slightly" more valuable, because I think the offense is going to be better.  But in a case like this, I think I'd hold Jones.  The main reason is now I KNOW the Kamara owner is looking to protect his investment, and is looking to acquire Jones.  Both could be excellent late season plays if things fall right, but in this instance I know Jones has a tad more value, at least from the Kamara owner's view.

I also take into account the rest of my rosters bye weeks, how my RB landscape looks, taking a bunch of "Injury what ifs" into account.

 Like I told a league mate tonight when we were talking about lottery tickets and backups.  "Well, you can't have them all, so I try and roster the ones who have the most upside".   (He asked this when I promptly dropped Michael Carter, to hold Tony Jones on my bench instead).   Of course, in said league I am currently rostering NINE RBs so I indeed try and acquire them all.     :lol:     (7 bench spots, and one IR slot)

 TZM

 
Tanner9919 said:
I've never been a believer in taking the backup to an elite RB there's no guarantee that the backup will be anywhere near what the starter was.

always take the lotto ticket 
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Mostly true...but situational IMO.  An example being those you know who have performed in the past as the backup when given the chance.  A guy like AJ Dillon is sort of both the lotto as well as a top handcuff (plus his stand alone value as a bye week flex in deeper leagues...of course, that is if they use him like they used Jamall Williams).  Similarly...if your starter is a guy like Gus, Ty'son Williams may be both as well (and again possibly some stand alone value based on that offense).

I missed out on the "backup" or cuff to my Aaron Jones...Dillon was the only one I really thought I might go for in that situation.  Another owner apparently wanted him much more and took him with still other starters on the board.  I was able to grab Gaskin as my RB4 rather than using my RB4 spot on a backup to one of my other players.  Im quite happy with that.

This question comes into play there for me as I was able to IR Michael Thomas and now have a waiver claim available.  Do I take a semi-proven cuff to my RB4 in Ahmed?  Probably not.  Id rather have one of the lottos still out there (Ty'son, Jones, Chuba all out there)   In this case...I don't have a real backup to my RB1-3 right now (Jones, Barkley, Carson) that I would rather have over one of the lotto tickets.  Unless someone wants to try convincing me that Penny or Collins are bigger lotto tickets than those other guys.  Im not currently convinced which one is really the backup or ticket there.

 
As many have said, I think it depends on the handcuff.

For example, if I owned Zeke, I would definitely want Pollard rather than Jones - if Zeke goes down, you have to hope that Jones also emerges as the guy at the same time you lose Zeke. The odds of that happening are slim.

In most cases, however, the backups are less proven and/or less certain that they would pick up the slack for a stud. So in general I would rather just grab a bunch of potentially high end backups to increase the probability of one or more of them hitting.

 
Tanner9919 said:
I've never been a believer in taking the backup to an elite RB there's no guarantee that the backup will be anywhere near what the starter was.

always take the lotto ticket 
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Well it's not called a lotto ticket because it's guaranteed.

 
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sho nuff said:
Mostly true...but situational IMO.  An example being those you know who have performed in the past as the backup when given the chance.  A guy like AJ Dillon is sort of both the lotto as well as a top handcuff (plus his stand alone value as a bye week flex in deeper leagues...of course, that is if they use him like they used Jamall Williams).  Similarly...if your starter is a guy like Gus, Ty'son Williams may be both as well (and again possibly some stand alone value based on that offense).

I missed out on the "backup" or cuff to my Aaron Jones...Dillon was the only one I really thought I might go for in that situation.  Another owner apparently wanted him much more and took him with still other starters on the board.  I was able to grab Gaskin as my RB4 rather than using my RB4 spot on a backup to one of my other players.  Im quite happy with that.

This question comes into play there for me as I was able to IR Michael Thomas and now have a waiver claim available.  Do I take a semi-proven cuff to my RB4 in Ahmed?  Probably not.  Id rather have one of the lottos still out there (Ty'son, Jones, Chuba all out there)   In this case...I don't have a real backup to my RB1-3 right now (Jones, Barkley, Carson) that I would rather have over one of the lotto tickets.  Unless someone wants to try convincing me that Penny or Collins are bigger lotto tickets than those other guys.  Im not currently convinced which one is really the backup or ticket there.
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I have Dillon as my RB 3 in a 16-team league, expecting him to be used like Jamaal, maybe more goal line chances, less receptions.  Hill looked good in the preseason. Is this a case where a backup to a backup should be considered, because of the TD potential in GB?

 
SoBeDad said:
I have Dillon as my RB 3 in a 16-team league, expecting him to be used like Jamaal, maybe more goal line chances, less receptions.  Hill looked good in the preseason. Is this a case where a backup to a backup should be considered, because of the TD potential in GB?
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I think Dillon is solid in that (mine is a 10 team league so obviously different situation to having him as a 3 in your league).

Hill...Im not sure.  I loved him in preseason...but we have yet to really see what he can do as far as protecting the QB...and that is pretty darn important to GB if he would be trusted.  I think an injury to one of the other two...yes, he has some value catching some balls and running too...

In a deeper league...yeah, Hill is a lotto ticket type but really needing injury.

 
I don’t do handcuffs unless they are RBs with a role who happen to be the handcuff. For instance, Chuba went undrafted. I had a couple guys go into the Covid  protocol so I put one on the IR to see if I had anyone get hurt at the last minute. If I don’t have a legit IR case I’ll toss him back. The hit rate on lotto tickets without a stand alone role is super low. 

Besides my starters (Najee & Swift), every RB on my roster has a role. Most of them have upside. None are pure lottery tix.

  • Javonte W - should be in a timeshare week 1 with a strong possibility of an increased role as the season goes along. Could be my Flex or RB2 by YE, clear path if the incumbent misses any time.
  • Michael Carter - has a poorly defined role rn and not likely to see it increase unless there’s an injury. But might be decent Flex option if they use him in the passing game.
  • Tony Pollard - while he’s a handcuff he’s also a guy with upside, saw his role increase slightly last year, and might see more touches this year. Has stand alone value - Zeke might be Zeke or he might be toast.Clear path to RB1 in case of injury but that’s not why I’m holding him.
  • JD McKissic - had a clearly defined role last year,  remains to be seen if he has one this year. Little to no upside and a midseason cut candidate. But as a 3rd down back has stand alone value in PPR if they use him that way again. Not an RB1 if there is an injury. Low investment capital so IDC.
  • Chuba Hubbard - no role and no upside unless there is another CMC injury. Unlikely to hold as its just a roster clogger.
IOW I’ve put some thought into every RB on my roster. As the season goes along, depth matters less with each passing bye week, I’ll add more RB lotto tickets. You can’t win if you don’t play.

 
zamboni said:
As many have said, I think it depends on the handcuff.

For example, if I owned Zeke, I would definitely want Pollard rather than Jones - if Zeke goes down, you have to hope that Jones also emerges as the guy at the same time you lose Zeke. The odds of that happening are slim.

In most cases, however, the backups are less proven and/or less certain that they would pick up the slack for a stud. So in general I would rather just grab a bunch of potentially high end backups to increase the probability of one or more of them hitting.
Click to expand...
That’s really the challenge here. While @sho nuff is spot on that it’s situational, I attempted to frame it in terms of the specific situations where it’s a strong backup like Chubba. 

While I started the topic, I voted for the lottery ticket. If your starter goes down it’s good to have the handcuff, but you can only be worse off because while Chubba is potentially great, he’s not CMC.

And while Jones has a little stand-alone value, he is truly a jackpot if Kamara goes down, as it would give you another potential stud RB.

The decision is closer than the poll, IMO. @zamboni is correct that if Zeke goes down and he has Pollard, he might only lose ~10% of the production with Pollard, but if Zeke goes down and he has Jones, he then has to wait for a Kamara injury to have even a start-able asset. 

There’s a value in handcuffing, though it’s much more costly to do so in recent years, thanks in part to zero-RB guys. They scoop up the next-in-lines to an extreme level. Get a couple of those dudes in a league & you’ll see guys like Hubbard & Jones going in the 9th to teams that don’t have CMC or Kamara, respectively. 

So yeah - I voted with the majority, but I definitely have dissenting opinions about it.  I could absolutely see trading end-of-the-draft pick Jones for 12th round pick Hubbard if I have CMC. There is value in the cuff.

But there’s clearly more value in holding Jones if Kamara were to go down. 

 
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The answer is it depends.  A lot depends on my roster construction.  If I have a lot of depth with upside then I rather have the handcuff because I already have the upside.  I also would prefer the cuff if the cuff has stand alone value also (Pollard, Mattison, Hunt, Dillon).  

Jones has stand alone value so if you need a player that could be used for your flex then I probably keep Jones unless it was to get one of the four I listed above).  

 
Weebs210 said:
My bench is always filled with loterry tickets instead of my own handcuffs. That's how I end up with players like Robinson. 
Click to expand...


That was the conclusion I arrived at when evaluating whether to deal Jones for Chubba. If CMC goes down, I'm more likely to roll with my RB2/3 rather than bench Mixon/Henderson/JaWill for Chubba.

But if Kamara goes down, I have a potential 3-down stud in Jones who I can plug in at flex during BYEs or if one of my other guys gets hurt. 

The only risk is the same one I'm already exposed to in a CMC injury, in that example.  

 
Best talent belonging to the best offense with the best opportunity to dominate carries if the #1 goes down.   If that's behind a #1 that I own and I'm gaining some protection, great.    If that's behind someone else's #1, and it would represent a complete windfall, that's also great.   Probably a little more fun.   If it was dead even, I probably do the safe play and CMA, but I won't sacrifice any perceived value to make that happen.  

For instance, if I have Dalvin Cook and Mattison, I would easily trade Mattison for Pollard and I'm not even that far apart on Mattison -vs- Pollard.  

 
Well, I got lucky since I own Kamara and Jones. It really depends on the offense. If I have Dalvin Cook and Mattison, I am NOT trading Mattison for Pollard. I'd rather keep the clear cuff locked up to my RB1. To be clear, there are VERY few worth handcuffing (i.e. Cook, Zeke, maybe Kamara) due to their offense's depending on bell cows and the quality of the handcuff. 

 
Someone else's backup RB for me, unless the benches are very deep and the ww is bare. 

 
If I've got CMC, Cook, Kamara, Zeke, or Jones, I want their cuff.  If I don't have any of those specific backs, then I still want their cuffs and I don't want any of my own cuffs.  

 
wlwiles said:
If I've got CMC, Cook, Kamara, Zeke, or Jones, I want their cuff.  If I don't have any of those specific backs, then I still want their cuffs and I don't want any of my own cuffs.  
Click to expand...
Agreed, and agreed. That’s not really the question, though. 

If you have one of those elite backs, and one of the other backup backs on that list (not your own).

Would you trade that upside handcuff for your own handcuff? or would take the gamble & hang onto the lotto ticket, foregoing your own insurance policy? 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Agreed, and agreed. That’s not really the question, though. 

If you have one of those elite backs, and one of the other backup backs on that list (not your own).

Would you trade that upside handcuff for your own handcuff? or would take the gamble & hang onto the lotto ticket, foregoing your own insurance policy? 
Click to expand...
Purpose of the thread devolved in my head as I read down the replies I guess.  I'm the guy who would rather have my own elite handcuff rather than someone else's.  Nabbed Jones in two leagues yesterday, in one of them I have no elite backs so happy to hold the lotto ticket.  In the other I've sent an offer of Jones for Dillon to the Kamara owner, so I can try and use Dillon as a trade piece to make a deal with the Jones owner who has Pitts (my real target)

 
wlwiles said:
In the other I've sent an offer of Jones for Dillon to the Kamara owner, so I can try and use Dillon as a trade piece to make a deal with the Jones owner who has Pitts (my real target)
Click to expand...
Given Dillon’s ADP and projected standalone value, that seems like a tough sell.

 
I always ask myself  "Will the handcuff be an RB2 (or better) if my stud goes down?"  If yes, then a handcuff is good, assuming that you have the roster space to accommodate it.  Pollard can be a must own for Zeke owners, or Mattison for Cook owners.  But many times the coach will employ a different philosophy if their RB stud goes down, there is no guarantee the handcuff will get the full load like the stud.  Pretty sure if Henry went down, TEN would probably throw the ball a lot more.

I only want other handcuffs for the same reason....will they become RB2s or better if the ball bounces the right way?   I took Tyson Williams with my last pick (not owning Edwards), because he likely becomes an RB2 in that offense...it's not like Jackson is going to start slinging it all over the field.

If the handcuff is at best an RB3 even if he gets the job......I pass.  It's a waste of draft resources.  You can typically get these type of players off of the WW or trade for them cheaply if needed.

 
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fightingillini said:
I always ask myself  "Will the handcuff be an RB2 (or better) if my stud goes down?"  If yes, then a handcuff is good, assuming that you have the roster space to accommodate it.  Pollard can be a must own for Zeke owners, or Mattison for Cook owners.  But many times the coach will employ a different philosophy if their RB stud goes down, there is no guarantee the handcuff will get the full load like the stud.  Pretty sure if Henry went down, TEN would probably throw the ball a lot more.

I only want other handcuffs for the same reason....will they become RB2s or better if the ball bounces the right way?   I took Tyson Williams with my last pick (not owning Edwards), because he likely becomes an RB2 in that offense...it's not like Jackson is going to start slinging it all over the field.

If the handcuff is at best an RB3 even if he gets the job......I pass.  It's a waste of draft resources.  You can typically get these type of players off of the WW or trade for them cheaply if needed.
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Don’t disagree.

But the premise of this topic was more straightforward. 

1. assume the handcuff is RB2 or better if the starter goes down

2. assume you have that guy,  it it’s not your own stud RB1’s handcuff, who would be at minimum a RB2 if your stud RB1 goes down. 

3. assume you’re being offered your own stud RB1’s handcuff in exchange for the trade partner’s handcuff you’re carrying.

Is it better to insure your player, or to hold the lottery ticket? 

 
A handcuff is usually a lottery ticket either way, whether for your rb or another's rb. I'm wanting the garunteed points, or at least the opportunity from my own handcuff if I'm competing. Points on your bench from some other guy's back up will not help you win.

If I'm rebuilding, only interested in adding value and actively trying not to win, I'll take any lottery ticket. Whoever I think has the best talent.

 
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ignatiusjreilly said:
I almost never draft handcuffs, but if I did I would want them for RBs not on my team. In my fantasy drafts I prioritize upside over hedging.
Click to expand...
Yes. If I draft a running back high I’m betting an awful lot on him. Rather than bet against myself by taking his backup, I’ll take someone else’s. Riskier, but if my first round RB goes down with an injury for the season, my odds of winning it all with his backup probably already take a huge hit. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
Yes. If I draft a running back high I’m betting an awful lot on him. Rather than bet against myself by taking his backup, I’ll take someone else’s. Riskier, but if my first round RB goes down with an injury for the season, my odds of winning it all with his backup probably already take a huge hit. 
Click to expand...
There’s also the fact that the scenario where you draft a handcuff, keep him on your roster, sub him in after an injury to the starter and then he becomes a stud requires a sequence of events that almost never happens. I actually did it back in the day with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, but the vast majority of the time you either hold the handcuff all season and waste a roster spot or drop him a few weeks in when you need to pick up someone else.

 
I can only justify hand-cuffing when I am:

  a. confident in the offense, incl. all three of coach/QB/OL,

  b. confident in the talent of the backup player,

  c. able to obtain that backup at a reasonable cost.

Examples of all three of the above this year include:

Kareem Hunt (3% Auction Value), Kenyan Drake (2% AV), Tony JJ (2% AV)

- I'm not sure if there are any other handcuffs in the league this year that pass my a-b-c test above. And if one doesn't, I'd pass for an upside play elsewhere.

 
Lotto ticket unless it's a large league where waiver wires are a desert. There comes a tipping point where you become slightly better off having the handcuff in situations where you are relatively confident who the handcuff is. 

 
In your specific situation I wouldn't make the trade. There are four potential outcomes (in simple terms): no injury to CMC or Kamara, injury to one but not the other or an injury to both. I think I prefer Jones in all but one of those scenarios.

 
Another...it depends.  Historically I have been that guy who drafts a couple of high lotto handcuffs whether they were mine or not  BUT  that is predicated on me having enough RB depth to be fine if the lottos dont hit.  Last year, however, I had a thin rb group  yet still drafted the same lotto picks.  What happened is my best rb went down and none of  the lotto picks hit.  I struggled to field  a 2nd legitimate rb all  year.  Having that  good but not great  handcuff to my best rb sure would have come in handy.   Me new theory is shoot for the stars when you can but dont get caught with your pants down when your rb corp is shallow.  

 
I took Zeke at 4th overall tonight in a 20 team league lol. I handcuffed him before I even filled my flex spot since Pollard was in range of his ADP at my sixth round selection, as RBs flew off the board. It was painful to do, but it would just be too devastating to lose him. Which brings me to the point of league and roster size factoring into this decision. If I had 4th overall and took Zeke in a 10 to 12 man league, then grab another stud RB with my 2nd/3rd rounder in the 20ish range, I don't feel inclined to handcuff. However, having to wait til pick 37 to pick again, and winding up with Josh Jacobs as my RB2 made me feel the need to grab Pollard when the time came.

 
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cloppbeast said:
A handcuff is usually a lottery ticket either way, whether for your rb or another's rb. I'm wanting the garunteed points, or at least the opportunity from my own handcuff if I'm competing. Points on your bench from some other guy's back up will not help you win.

If I'm rebuilding, only interested in adding value and actively trying not to win, I'll take any lottery ticket. Whoever I think has the best talent.
Click to expand...
Not really though.  If you have your own handcuff (say, Chubba as a CMC owner) you “win” If CMC goes down, but that lottery ticket only pays $.70 on the $1. 

If you have Jones & Kamara goes down, you win $.70 on the dollar that is Kamara.

In the 1st scenario, you’re losing 30% of CMC’s production. In the 2nd, you're gaining 70% of Kamara’s production. 

Of course, that’s only if things break right. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
Yes. If I draft a running back high I’m betting an awful lot on him. Rather than bet against myself by taking his backup, I’ll take someone else’s. Riskier, but if my first round RB goes down with an injury for the season, my odds of winning it all with his backup probably already take a huge hit. 
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Nailed it. 👍🏼

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
There’s also the fact that the scenario where you draft a handcuff, keep him on your roster, sub him in after an injury to the starter and then he becomes a stud requires a sequence of events that almost never happens. I actually did it back in the day with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, but the vast majority of the time you either hold the handcuff all season and waste a roster spot or drop him a few weeks in when you need to pick up someone else.
Click to expand...
I did it with Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson.

Of course, I believed Johnson had stand-alone value as well, but it worked out. 

 
zamboni said:
As many have said, I think it depends on the handcuff.

For example, if I owned Zeke, I would definitely want Pollard rather than Jones - if Zeke goes down, you have to hope that Jones also emerges as the guy at the same time you lose Zeke. The odds of that happening are slim.

In most cases, however, the backups are less proven and/or less certain that they would pick up the slack for a stud. So in general I would rather just grab a bunch of potentially high end backups to increase the probability of one or more of them hitting.
Click to expand...


wlwiles said:
If I've got CMC, Cook, Kamara, Zeke, or Jones, I want their cuff.  If I don't have any of those specific backs, then I still want their cuffs and I don't want any of my own cuffs.  
Click to expand...
Agreed with both of these. I might grab my top back’s backup of the waiver wire if available, but always take the talented back who would take over the lead if given the opportunity. It’s hard to know when that applies sometimes, like many of us did not see Mike Davis doing as well as he did but others are more clear. 

 
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