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Official 2013 Returnmen thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter GregR
- Start date
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
interestingly Tenn has both Darius Reynaud & Marc Mariani on their roster, if one is released (most likely Mariani) they would surely be scooped up by a return needed team
sho nuff
Footballguy
Are teams that desperate for a return only guy though?
Mariani is pretty much only a return guy...a pretty good one prior to the gruesome injury...but really a mediocre (at best) WR.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Guessing the way things are going...Ross will end up the return guy in GB.
Though, McCarthy has not shied away from having valuable guys in the return spot (Tramon Williams was back there for a while when he was their best corner)...the injuries to Cobb and Nelson make me think Ross should be back there.
Though, McCarthy has not shied away from having valuable guys in the return spot (Tramon Williams was back there for a while when he was their best corner)...the injuries to Cobb and Nelson make me think Ross should be back there.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Mariani opens the preseason atop the depth chart for both punt returner and kick returner. Why would his roster spot be more in jeopardy than Reynaud's? Is it because he's just a return specialist, while Reynaud offers some sort of offensive ability?
Adam Harstad
Moderator
One name that's very interesting to me right now is Dexter McCluster. He currently sits atop Kansas City's depth chart at both punt and kickoff returner, which means he could potentially put up 1,000+ return yards. Unlike some returners, he's not an offensive non-factor, either- when Charles was hurt in 2011, McCluster moved to RB and actually received over 100 carries, averaging about 50 yards of offense a game. Last year, he was back at WR, but still managed to catch 50 balls. Saying Andy Reid is kind of a fan of the passing game is sort of like saying the Pope is kind of a fan of this God fellow, so if McCluster can maintain his lead over Wylie in the return game *AND* carve out a niche as a 4th or 5th target in the passing game, I could easily see McCluster being one of this year's nicer surprises in return yardage leagues.
GregR
Footballguy
I sent a note to see if they can double check the data load of the projections for him. He should have 196 kick return yards. I spot checked a number of other players and everyone else I checked looked ok.
Rick James
Footballguy
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Just from the blips from roto i guess
The Nashville Tennessean believes it will be a "challenge" for Marc Mariani to unseat Darius Reynaud as the Titans' return specialist.
Mariani suffered a compound leg fracture last preseason, and it left some wondering if the 2010 Pro Bowler's career was over. He's now nearing 100 percent, while coming off an "amazing" spring. Reynaud returned two punts and one kickoff to the house last season, and he was re-signed to a one-year deal.
GregR
Footballguy
The return projections are now available on the main webpage with the rest of the projections at http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/return-projections.php
I don't think there is a link straight there from the pull down menu, but if you go to the pages for Offensive Projections there is a link to it in the list of positions.
I don't think there is a link straight there from the pull down menu, but if you go to the pages for Offensive Projections there is a link to it in the list of positions.
Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
Hey Greg, thanks for your hard work here! I really appreciate your timely posts and willingness to explain your thought process.Greg Russell said:
Sorry for the tangent here but, do you have any idea if/when these return projections will make it into PD/DD? Dodds stated they would be included this year, but we have yet to actually see it. I know the apps aren't your priority, but we haven't gotten any response in the App Forum from either Dodds, Bryant or Henderson for over a month and a half. Thanks again!
Rody
GregR
Footballguy
Wish I had more to share than what you know already. All I know is David agrees they need to get into DD, but I don't know any kind of timeframe for it.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Reynaud was pretty good last year. Mariani was just as good the two years before. Both have 3 career return TDs. It's almost unprecedented for a team to have two guys who did so well handling all returns both competing for the same job. It's also an extremely important ones for return leaguers, since the Titans are one of the teams that just looooove giving all the returns to a single guy. There's a good chance that whoever wins the return job gets 1500+ yards, while the guy who loses gets cut outright.
Right now, we've got Mariani with 67% of the returns and Reynaud with 33% based on the initial depth chart, which has Mariani running with the first team. This is one of the most important situations for return leaguers, though, so the value of every little bit of information is obviously magnified.
GregR
Footballguy
I don't have a release date, but I thought you guys would like to know it's actively being worked. There's been a lot of coding progress since my last update.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I suppose Marquise Goodwin should get some mention in this thread, now.
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
Goodwin has ludicrous speed.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
The guy is an actual, honest-to-goodness Olympian. He made the finals in the long jump. He pretty consistently runs the 40 in the 4.2-4.3 range. He's fast like only a track star can be. Also worth noting that Buffalo is far and away the best team in the league at blocking for kickoffs. Both Leodis McKelvin and Brad Smith split kick return duties last year, and both finished in the top 5 in the league in kickoff return average. Buffalo has removed McKelvin from their kick return depth chart, and it looks like Goodwin is a big reason why. Goodwin bears monitoring, as anyone who earns the #1 kickoff return job in Buffalo is guaranteed to rack up a ton of kickoff return yards.
koreansteve
Footballguy
I'd like to ask the experts (Greg, Adam, etc) about the guys already being drafted in the first 12 rounds of redraft leagues that have their value increase because of return yards (the ones that interest me the most).
David Wilson
Seems like his KR duties will be decreased if he gets around the 200-220 carries people expect of him (last year he had 71 carries). Seems like in return yardage leagues, this is a great hedge against him not breaking out as a true workhorse. Either he gets the 200 carries and retains his KR duties...or he (because of his play or an injury to ABrown) becomes a true #1 RB while losing his KR duties. Is this the correct way to look at the situation or am I off-base?
Darren Sproles
Until last year he was a lock for well over 1000 combined return yards. Last year he had less than half as many kick returns. Was this completely due to injury? Greg has him at almost 1000 total return yards...will he be the primary kick return and punt return man for the Saints in 2013? Should we expect around 1000 total return yards now that he's over 30?
Randall Cobb
How much of a decrease do we see in terms of total return yardage now that he'll be the #1 or #2 WR for the Packers?
TY Hilton
400 combined return yards in 2012 as a rookie. With him fairly secure as the #2 WR in INDY, will that decrease this year?
Rueben Randle
Would he see any increase production from a decreased roll for DWilson on kickoffs?
Chris Givens
Is he still returning kickoffs? Does Tavon Austin take most of his return yards or will Austin only be used on punts?
David Wilson
Seems like his KR duties will be decreased if he gets around the 200-220 carries people expect of him (last year he had 71 carries). Seems like in return yardage leagues, this is a great hedge against him not breaking out as a true workhorse. Either he gets the 200 carries and retains his KR duties...or he (because of his play or an injury to ABrown) becomes a true #1 RB while losing his KR duties. Is this the correct way to look at the situation or am I off-base?
Darren Sproles
Until last year he was a lock for well over 1000 combined return yards. Last year he had less than half as many kick returns. Was this completely due to injury? Greg has him at almost 1000 total return yards...will he be the primary kick return and punt return man for the Saints in 2013? Should we expect around 1000 total return yards now that he's over 30?
Randall Cobb
How much of a decrease do we see in terms of total return yardage now that he'll be the #1 or #2 WR for the Packers?
TY Hilton
400 combined return yards in 2012 as a rookie. With him fairly secure as the #2 WR in INDY, will that decrease this year?
Rueben Randle
Would he see any increase production from a decreased roll for DWilson on kickoffs?
Chris Givens
Is he still returning kickoffs? Does Tavon Austin take most of his return yards or will Austin only be used on punts?
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
not an expert but I'll give a take.
Wilson will see a lot less returns unless he loses the RB2 job which would take some serious bad play to do. They wanted to take him off all together but hes been fighting it.
Cobb, another one whoes going to see less returns but I think he'll still get majority of them. GB wants him off the returns but they also know hes by far the best returner on the team.
Sporles, he was injuried last yr and should get his role back. No one stodd out last yr while he was injuried.
Wilson will see a lot less returns unless he loses the RB2 job which would take some serious bad play to do. They wanted to take him off all together but hes been fighting it.
Cobb, another one whoes going to see less returns but I think he'll still get majority of them. GB wants him off the returns but they also know hes by far the best returner on the team.
Sporles, he was injuried last yr and should get his role back. No one stodd out last yr while he was injuried.
GregR
Footballguy
Wilson I think that is a good way of looking at him. If he goes up in offensive attempts he may lose the return job, so it may be a balancing act with him and we might not want to bank on top level offensive production and top return production both.
Sproles last year was the guy until he was injured, though it's worth noting Cadet was hurt early. During Sproles injury, Cadet became the main guy. When Sproles got back they didn't have him rush the ball the first few games either, just caught some receptions. The very end of the season then Sproles got back into the return game, though Cadet was healthy. It was a hand injury, so if he wasn't yet 100% I could see them bringing him back into the return game slowly. We did start out with the two at a close to even split on kick returns as we weren't sure which way they would go. They have Sproles on top of the depth chart now though. We've given him 60% of the KR but most all the PR at this point. I'd say 900+ return yards should be a reasonably safe range for him barring injury. We have him over that now and I think once we hit the season we might find we were too conservative.
Cobb is a potential boom or bust in number of returns. The Packers don't want him being a returner, but will use him there if no one else emerges as a good option to replace him. He's not like Wilson where return work will be as coupled to his offensive workload. We've got him at about 50% of the KR workload right now, but that's more a measure of uncertainty it'll be most all or very few, rather than that we think it'll be a true 50/50 split with other players on the team.
Hilton I think is safe as a punt returner barring someone really showing some elite talent in preseason. I think the opposite at kick returner, it's going to take others failing to get much there. So I'd definitely go under on 400 yards until I see otherwise.
Randle might not be helped at all by kick returns, right now it looks like they would probably go to Jerrel Jernigan or Da'Rel Scott first. Scott I imagine will make the team, Jernigan might be more on the bubble. If he doesn't make it, or there's an injury, then I'd see Randle more likely to fit into the mix. I wouldn't give Randle much of a WR rankings bump counting on kick returns though unless something changes.
The Rams were a bit of a surprise, not even listing Tavon Austin on the returner depth chart. I am going to be surprised if Austin is not used there a few times, and possibly as the primary. I've got him at 1/3 of the returns and have Givens with closer to half right now, but . But that's one of those situations where I feel it go any direction easily, with Austin getting most, with Givens getting most, with it being a bigger committee approach. I would factor returns into Givens WR ranking, but I'd consider the projection to have some risk, so if I was depending on that contribution I'd want a more solid backup than normal.
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GregR
Footballguy
Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas tweeted that Miles Austin is getting reps at punt returner today.
I'm not going to try to read too much out of that yet... just because they give a guy a look doesn't mean he's going to work out and even become a backup let alone someone who fields any in a real game. But, given that he's a player of fantasy significance, figured it was worth sharing so people can keep an eye on it.
I'm not going to try to read too much out of that yet... just because they give a guy a look doesn't mean he's going to work out and even become a backup let alone someone who fields any in a real game. But, given that he's a player of fantasy significance, figured it was worth sharing so people can keep an eye on it.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
To give a second take...
Personally, I think Wilson keeps his kickoff duties whether he becomes the clear #1 back or not. New York is certainly acting like they are not expecting to remove Wilson's kickoff duties. They've even got him listed on the depth chart as a 3rd-string punt returner, although I wouldn't read anything into that. We've got him projected to handle 80% of the kickoff returns, with the other 20% mostly going to Jernigan as a hedge.
Kick returns are such a big part of who Sproles is that I'd be surprised to see him give them up. We've got him getting a slight reduction on kickoffs, since those are usually the first to go for a player (and since it's easy enough to reduce, since all teams have two potential returners back deep on all kickoffs, anyway). Punts, on the other hand, I'd assume he has locked down until injury or ineffectiveness lays him low.
For Cobb, the Packers have talked about how much they want to see another returner play well enough that they can take Cobb off of returns, but as of yet that hasn't happened, and Cobb is still listed as the first team returner on both kickoffs and punts. We're being conservative with him, and have him projected to handle 50% of each, just because the coaching staff clearly wants to scale his work back. If I had to engage in some completely baseless speculation, I might note that in the past, when a dual-threat returner has seen his offensive workload increase, the most common reaction is for teams to take him off of kickoffs entirely while leaving him 100% of the punts. For examples of this pattern, see Antonio Brown, Devin Hester, or if you want to go really old-school, Rick Upchurch (the greatest returner of all time, imo).
For Hilton, teams don't usually take #2 receivers off of special teams entirely. Not saying Indy couldn't, just saying teams typically don't. They're often leery about having their top target play special teams, but the #2 guy is usually fair game. Going off of the depth chart, Hilton's still got the #1 punt return job fairly sewn up. Backup Kerwynn Williams was an amazing returner in college, and he could possibly threaten for the job (assuming he makes the final roster, which isn't a given), but if Hilton loses punt returns, it's probably more because Williams took them from him than because Indy's coaching staff was nervous about his workload.
New York doesn't like Randle on kickoffs- he's not even on their depth chart, which is really saying something because New York's depth chart goes an impressive six players deep. Seriously. If Wilson loses kickoffs, the primary beneficiary is going to be Jerrel Jernigan.
St. Louis is a bit of an enigma. As Greg said, they don't list Austin and have Givens as the first team kickoff returner. Ourlads has Austin listed as 1st string returner for both punts and kickoffs and doesn't have Givens listed at all. I really have no idea where Ourlads is getting their information or if they're just making it up out of thin air, but the Ourlads version looks closer to what I'd expect to see from St. Louis. I do know that the NFL mandates that teams release a depth chart, but a lot of teams just assign it to someone in the PR department who doesn't actually know what's going on on the field. Don't know if that's what's at play here in St. Louis, but I do look forward to the next couple of weeks of preseason when we can get a better read, here.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
GregR
Footballguy
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GregR
Footballguy
Just finished an update to the projections. Mostly small tweaks. New copy is up in the article. Has to go through a bit more of a loading process before it'll be in Draft Dominator, but should be available soon.
Schiano said Eric Page is in the lead for the PR job, but kick returner is still unclear.
Schiano said Eric Page is in the lead for the PR job, but kick returner is still unclear.
koreansteve
Footballguy
Wow. Thanks for the fantastic responses. If you don't mind, I'd like to get a little more clarity regarding...
Emmanuel Sanders
You guys have him at over 600 KR yds. I see that he's #1 on the depth chart for KRs. LSH is there as the #2. We should expect a return to 2010 KR stats for Sanders? Last year he had 1 KR, in 2011 he had 5 KRs...thus the reason I'm asking.
Thanks.
Emmanuel Sanders
You guys have him at over 600 KR yds. I see that he's #1 on the depth chart for KRs. LSH is there as the #2. We should expect a return to 2010 KR stats for Sanders? Last year he had 1 KR, in 2011 he had 5 KRs...thus the reason I'm asking.
Thanks.
Re: Sproles
He was removed from KR duties prior to his hand injury last year. Weeks 6-7 he didn't handle any kicks, yet he remained the main punt returner. He was then injured and missed weeks 8-10. Upon his return, they still held him out of kicks but left him on punts.
He did have 3 KRs in the final game of the season. It's tough to understand exactly why they pulled him over that stretch, especially since Cadet did not outperform him.
He was removed from KR duties prior to his hand injury last year. Weeks 6-7 he didn't handle any kicks, yet he remained the main punt returner. He was then injured and missed weeks 8-10. Upon his return, they still held him out of kicks but left him on punts.
He did have 3 KRs in the final game of the season. It's tough to understand exactly why they pulled him over that stretch, especially since Cadet did not outperform him.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
From what I've heard, McKelvin will return punts while Goodwin and someone else will return kickoffs. Who that someone else is will probably depend on what WRs make the team. I could see any of Brad Smith, TJ Graham or Da'Rick Rogers being the other guy. But Goodwin will certainly be the one definite at KR. The other spot could also be McKelvin too the more I think about it. With McKelvin's camp injury and unimpressive play before the injury, it's possible he may not be a defensive starter. If that's the case, I'm sure he'll be the guy opposite of Goodwin on KRs.
ETA: One thing that does bear watching more in preseason is if the good special teams' play from week 1 continues. Buffalo has a new special teams coach this year and he has never had a ST unit finish in the top half of the league. So it's no guarantee that the blocking will be as good as previous years. They also let go of quite a few guys that contributed on special teams this last offseason.
It's hard to argue with last Sunday's results though. Goodwin averaged about 75 yards per return and was very close to having two 100+ yard return TDs.
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GregR
Footballguy
So far that's the best we have out of the Steelers so far, that Sanders will likely be the primary. We've got him at 60% of the returns, so we do have others in the mix, and that ratio could definitely change based on results. I think he's less certain of getting than, say, Leon Washington getting his, but more sure to get that than any KR on the Bucs you might choose.
GregR
Footballguy
Worth mentioning... games 6-7 were against strong-legged Michael Koenen on kickoffs and then at Denver in the thinner air. I don't know who was sent in to handle the returns as the play by plays don't mention it. But every kickoff to the Saints in those two games was a touchback. So unless someone can check tape of the games, it could have been Sproles was still the returner, just there weren't any returnable kicks.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
In 2011, Antonio Brown emerged as a stud returner and took most of Sanders' kickoffs. In 2012, Pittsburgh brought in Chris Rainey with the intention of using him as a returner while they developed him as an offensive weapon. Now, Brown is Pittsburgh's #1 receiver (and off of kickoffs), and Rainey was cut this offseason for character reasons, which leaves Sanders back on top of the heap. Things could change- the fact that Sanders got beat out for kickoff returns the last two years shows that he's beatable- but Sanders is a solid returner who happened to lose his job to a pair of electric specialists, but who can easily be a solid returner again in 2013.
GregR
Footballguy
The article now includes a separate table at the bottom with return projections rolled up to the team level, for use with Team D/ST.
The new Draft Dominator version that has return stats for individual players didn't have them for Team D/ST units. Bruce is looking at making those available in a new version.
The new Draft Dominator version that has return stats for individual players didn't have them for Team D/ST units. Bruce is looking at making those available in a new version.
GregR
Footballguy
New set of projections in the article, should be appearing in the database for download to Draft Dominator / mobile apps soon.
Giants will pick and choose when David Wilson returns kicks, so this could be a big hit to his fantasy value depending on your scoring. Went conservative with the projection for him until we see just how much they plan to use him.
Micah Hyde is one to watch for the Packers punt returners. They liked what they saw this week and he'll get another chance according to McCarthy.
Mike Thomas cut by Detroit.
Wheaton the back up punt returner in Pittsburgh.
Shiloh Keo the backup in Houston at both PR and KR.
Giants will pick and choose when David Wilson returns kicks, so this could be a big hit to his fantasy value depending on your scoring. Went conservative with the projection for him until we see just how much they plan to use him.
Micah Hyde is one to watch for the Packers punt returners. They liked what they saw this week and he'll get another chance according to McCarthy.
Mike Thomas cut by Detroit.
Wheaton the back up punt returner in Pittsburgh.
Shiloh Keo the backup in Houston at both PR and KR.
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GregR
Footballguy
GregR
Footballguy
Actually, sounds like Ross was back taking the first set of reps in actual full on return plays today for both PR and KR. Working on another projections update. Some other notes...
Ravens traded David Reed to the Colts for Delone Carter. Reed should slide in as the primary kick returner and take the bulk of the returns for Indy. Deonte Thompson would be the beneficiary in Baltimore, moving up the food chain but still behind Jacoby Jones.
Vikings staff say the punt return job is down to Sherels and corner Bobby Felder. Felder was a practice squad guy vying to make the roster now.
Bademosi has the lead for Cleveland's KR with Dion Lewis out with the broken leg. Benjamin and Skrine his backups.
Ravens traded David Reed to the Colts for Delone Carter. Reed should slide in as the primary kick returner and take the bulk of the returns for Indy. Deonte Thompson would be the beneficiary in Baltimore, moving up the food chain but still behind Jacoby Jones.
Vikings staff say the punt return job is down to Sherels and corner Bobby Felder. Felder was a practice squad guy vying to make the roster now.
Bademosi has the lead for Cleveland's KR with Dion Lewis out with the broken leg. Benjamin and Skrine his backups.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Greg,
In regards to the Vikings Sherels is definitely on the bubble to make the team and I think Felder outplayed him as a DB in coverage, which is a sore spot with the Vikings they are really trying to improve. I actually think Patterson may take this job over, especially if Sherels is cut.
I have seen Michael Cox being used as a kick returner for the Giants, so he may be in the mix there.
Similarly Isiah Pead might get some work on kick returns for the Rams. Maybe. I did read about him returning punt for TD in practice.
Adam,
Unfortunately ourlads does not seem very reliable resource for depth charts. I was looking at their site myself a few weeks ago and there is just too much inconsistent information there when compared against official team depth chart listings. I wish this was only this year, but that is what I have noticed every time over the years when I have looked at their information.
eta- Benny Cunningham in the mix on kick returns for the Rams as well. I would think Austin should be their main guy still. But I guess we won't know for a little while yet.
In regards to the Vikings Sherels is definitely on the bubble to make the team and I think Felder outplayed him as a DB in coverage, which is a sore spot with the Vikings they are really trying to improve. I actually think Patterson may take this job over, especially if Sherels is cut.
I have seen Michael Cox being used as a kick returner for the Giants, so he may be in the mix there.
Similarly Isiah Pead might get some work on kick returns for the Rams. Maybe. I did read about him returning punt for TD in practice.
Adam,
Unfortunately ourlads does not seem very reliable resource for depth charts. I was looking at their site myself a few weeks ago and there is just too much inconsistent information there when compared against official team depth chart listings. I wish this was only this year, but that is what I have noticed every time over the years when I have looked at their information.
eta- Benny Cunningham in the mix on kick returns for the Rams as well. I would think Austin should be their main guy still. But I guess we won't know for a little while yet.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
Side note: Johnson Bademosi and Buster Skrine has to be the greatest-named duo of kick returners in NFL history.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Thanks for the heads up, Bia. I've never used Ourlads before (I've always just used FBGs, to be honest), I was mostly just curious whether they were getting their information from anywhere in particular, or whether they were just making it up out of thin air. Looks like "thin air" wins out.
GregR
Footballguy
Good info, Bia.
I just went through all the kickoffs to the Rams in preseason so far. Pead had all the first string returns, 2 in the first game, 4 in the second. Cunningham took over when the 2nd string was in, 3 returns in the first game, 2 in the second. Radway was the returner with the 3rd string in the first game. McNeill shows up as having returned a kick, but he was a blocker on a squib kick end of the half, Cunningham was the guy sent in to be the returner.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Patterson is still in the mix for the punt return job. From the same link-
The Vikings have more receivers now, so I don't think they will limit Patterson as much as they might have Harvin who was the only real threat before. He still might become that guy later on.
The Vikings didn't use Harvin as much on punt returns either. I think they prefer to have the offensive players fresh when the offense starts it's drive as likely the main reason. But they are still having him practice as a punt returner as well.
The Vikings have more receivers now, so I don't think they will limit Patterson as much as they might have Harvin who was the only real threat before. He still might become that guy later on.
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