It never happens b/c it's not realistic. Do you really think a bunch of FFA message board nerds know more about last second NBA X's and O's than ALL of the coaches in the NBA over the past 50 years?
People are completely discounting the advantages that defenses have in last second situations. The reason great players get the rock 95% of the time isn't "OMG SPORTSCENTER HIGHLIGHT TIME", it's b/c if and when the play breaks down, the elite scorers in general can get separation and still get a good look. The average player can barely even get a shot off in these situations.
You have yet to state "the advantages a defense has in last second situations." Death ray? Giant anvil falling from the rafters?
You can't be serious. The league average FG% year in and year out is ~ 45%-46%, and that includes all the transition layups/dunks. Remove those buckets, and the percentage certainly drops significantly,
let's say down to 40%. That means defenses win 60% of the time over the course of a game in half court sets.
Now ramp up the intensity of the players, give defensive coaches a timeout to change lineups, set up a specific defense, etc., and
the % drops even further.
Defenses are going to win that possession
70-80% of the time.
So your argument is, when you anticipate it being tougher than usual to score, the right thing to do is to not put any pressure on the defense and run a predictable "play" that every other team in the league runs in that situation that involves a single player far away from the basket. Brilliant.Also, let's seem some links to the numbers you're throwing around re the defense winning 70-80% of the time in that situation. Then show me how that proves the point that the iso is the right way to go there - seems like if the success rate is less than average, and everyone is running the iso in that situation (your contention) that would prove running the iso is a bad idea.
That's not really my argument at all. Essentially, my argument is the following:1) Even in non late game determining possessions, defenses have an advantage.
2) That advantage is significantly larger in end of game situations.
3) Running the regular offense will often result in the ball ending up in a players hand and that player is forced to create his own shot.
4) A significant # of NBA players are not able to get their own shots in these situations.
5) Putting the ball in the hands of your elite scorer virtually assures that you at least get a shot off.
The notion that simply "running the offense" will automatically result in an open look for another player is flat out wrong.