**Official 2014 In Season Dynasty Trade Thread** (4 Viewers)

[One More Rep]

12 team ppr

Team A gets - A Jeffery and a 2015 1st

Team B gets Decker, Garcon and Hyde

Jeffery side

 

[cstu]

16 team league, I wasn't involved:

A gives Allen Hurns

B gives 2016 1st round pick (likely 1.12-16)

Nice return. I wouldn't even pay a 2nd in a 12 team so braver than I am

That's a great sell high.

 

[cstu]

12-team PPR

Team A: Larry Fitzgerald

Team B: Rashad Jennings, 2015 2nd

Still Fitz for me

I'll take the chance that he leaves AZ and has a resurgence at that price.

 

[Concept Coop]

Unless you think Lattimore is a threat, it seems like the only thing preventing Carlos Hyde from achieving Lacy/Bell levels of value is Frank Gore's eventual retirement. Hyde might not be quite the receiver that those other two are, but you have to like the idea of getting the bell cow back for a great organization. I would not be surprised if he's worth more than Allen in another 12-15 months. However, the top 6 pick for Lee complicates that deal. I think Lee can be a good player, but I would not pay that for him.

That's a fair point. But you can draft a Hyde level player next off-season for MUCH less than Keenan Allen. And looking at next years RB class--I like your odds of getting a younger, more talented option as well.

 

[maxhyde]

Unless you think Lattimore is a threat, it seems like the only thing preventing Carlos Hyde from achieving Lacy/Bell levels of value is Frank Gore's eventual retirement. Hyde might not be quite the receiver that those other two are, but you have to like the idea of getting the bell cow back for a great organization. I would not be surprised if he's worth more than Allen in another 12-15 months. However, the top 6 pick for Lee complicates that deal. I think Lee can be a good player, but I would not pay that for him.

That's a fair point. But you can draft a Hyde level player next off-season for MUCH less than Keenan Allen. And looking at next years RB class--I like your odds of getting a younger, more talented option as well.

This is where that top 6 1st warps the value of this deal by a decent margin in the favor of the Allen side for me

 

[Concept Coop]

That's a fair point. But you can draft a Hyde level player next off-season for MUCH less than Keenan Allen. And looking at next years RB class--I like your odds of getting a younger, more talented option as well.

Yeah--just as easily as Hyde could = Allen, 1.06 could = Hyde. I think the latter is more likely, myself.

 

[Adam Harstad]

That's a fair point. But you can draft a Hyde level player next off-season for MUCH less than Keenan Allen. And looking at next years RB class--I like your odds of getting a younger, more talented option as well.

Yeah--just as easily as Hyde could = Allen, 1.06 could = Hyde. I think the latter is more likely, myself.

"Top-6 pick" is not the same as "pick 1.06". It's much, much more valuable.

 

[Concept Coop]

"Top-6 pick" is not the same as "pick 1.06". It's much, much more valuable.

Certainly. Even as a worst case, I like the odds of landing a Hyde caliber prospect next year. Anything better than that is gravy.

 

[thriftyrocker]

"Top-6 pick" is not the same as "pick 1.06". It's much, much more valuable.

Certainly. Even as a worst case, I like the odds of landing a Hyde caliber prospect next year. Anything better than that is gravy.

Which 2015 RBs would you take over Hyde at this point? I think there has to be some amount of "bird-in-the-hand" bias given we know he's in a favorable situation and performing great at the NFL level thus far. I think Gurley is the only one you have to, have to take over him. "Younger more talented" is a little hazy given Hyde is a great fit for SF. Jaelen Strong will be a "Kelvin Benjamin caliber prospect" available in the late 1st next year but I'm not going to give up Benjamin for a late 1st, even in a deal closing capacity.

 

[DexterDew]

14 team devy league, graded PPR (.75/1.0/1.25) Start 2RB/3WR/TE can flex

Gave:

2015 Devy Pick (hope late)

2015 2nd Round Rookie (guessing middle/late)

Got:

Wheaton

Thompkins

not a big deal, but I normally don't like to trade my Devy pick. Needed to shore up my WRs with MJones/Welker being sidelined. So Wheaton slides into my WR3 and is young enough to be an asset for more years than an aging vet (say Fitz)

23 Devys already rostered, which dilutes the rookie pick... and the Devy pick.

 

[Concept Coop]

Which 2015 RBs would you take over Hyde at this point? I think there has to be some amount of "bird-in-the-hand" bias given we know he's in a favorable situation and performing great at the NFL level thus far. I think Gurley is the only one you have to, have to take over him. "Younger more talented" is a little hazy given Hyde is a great fit for SF. Jaelen Strong will be a "Kelvin Benjamin caliber prospect" available in the late 1st next year but I'm not going to give up Benjamin for a late 1st, even in a deal closing capacity.

I like Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Davis and Ajayi more than I ever liked Hyde as a prospect. I agree that Gurley is the only no-brainer today, considering the security that Hyde offers--he's survived the scouting process and landed in what looks like a "+" situation. But I don't need to bet on any specific collection of 5 prospects; only on the class itself.

In addition to the 5 RBs I like more--Williams, Abdullah, and Linwood could prove worthy, off the top of my head. At WR, I like the odds of at least 2-3 of these guys going top half of the round, making them more valuable as well--Cooper, DGB, Coates, Funchess, Diggs, Strong, Monty, Parker. That and few late risers who will join the conversation--I'd personally be surprised if Hyde would go top 8 in most PPR rookie drafts next season, even having landed in SF.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I'd personally be surprised if Hyde would go top 8 in most PPR rookie drafts next season, even having landed in SF.

Assuming Gore is there or not there?

 

[humpback]

That's a fair point. But you can draft a Hyde level player next off-season for MUCH less than Keenan Allen. And looking at next years RB class--I like your odds of getting a younger, more talented option as well.

Yeah--just as easily as Hyde could = Allen, 1.06 could = Hyde. I think the latter is more likely, myself.

"Top-6 pick" is not the same as "pick 1.06". It's much, much more valuable.

"Top-6ish pick" is not the same as "Top-6 pick" nor "pick 1.06". Hard to say how valuable it is.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'd personally be surprised if Hyde would go top 8 in most PPR rookie drafts next season, even having landed in SF.

Assuming Gore is there or not there?

There--Hyde's current situation or on 2014 draft night.

Without seeing where the top backs land, it's hard to say how high a Gore exit would push him. Anyone drafted in the 1st would be outside of Hyde's range, IMO. I think that ends up being 1-3 guys. We could use situation to seperate the rest at that point.

ETA: You could be right; top 8 could be hyperbole on my part. I'll stick with the original statement; 1.06+.

 

[Sabertooth]

Superflex PPR -

Gave - Josh Gordon

Got - Blake Bortles, 2015 2nd Rounder (mid to high).

Not bad consider I traded a 2016 3rd rounder for him only 67 days ago. I had Bortles as my #1 Overall Superflex prospect going into the draft and that hasn't changed.

 

[Adam Harstad]

"Top-6 pick" is not the same as "pick 1.06". It's much, much more valuable.

Certainly. Even as a worst case, I like the odds of landing a Hyde caliber prospect next year. Anything better than that is gravy.

Which 2015 RBs would you take over Hyde at this point? I think there has to be some amount of "bird-in-the-hand" bias given we know he's in a favorable situation and performing great at the NFL level thus far. I think Gurley is the only one you have to, have to take over him. "Younger more talented" is a little hazy given Hyde is a great fit for SF. Jaelen Strong will be a "Kelvin Benjamin caliber prospect" available in the late 1st next year but I'm not going to give up Benjamin for a late 1st, even in a deal closing capacity.

I don't follow college, so I can't talk about specific names, but I'd say that for me Carlos Hyde profiles very similarly to a typical 1.06 pick (considering his situation). In fact, if offered a choice between Hyde or the 1.06 today, I'd probably take Hyde, because landing in San Fran is valuable and there does have to be some sort of time discount (even if I don't favor a very big one).

With that said, the value of rookie picks rises by several order of magnitudes once you get closer to the top, and when you add the possibility that the pick becomes 1.05, 1.04, or 1.03 (even when offset by the possibility that the pick falls to 1.07 or 1.08), then things start getting very interesting. And when you add in the possibility that an injury or something strikes and you wind up with a top-2 pick in the first truly good RB class we've had in half a decade... yeah, I'd prefer the pick. I can understand why someone would go with Hyde. I think it's close. But give me the pick.

But even acknowledging that they're close... even if we call Hyde and the future pick a wash, that trade boils down to Keenan Allen for Marqise Lee. Which... not so close.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Superflex PPR -

Gave - Josh Gordon

Got - Blake Bortles, 2015 2nd Rounder (mid to high).

Not bad consider I traded a 2016 3rd rounder for him only 67 days ago. I had Bortles as my #1 Overall Superflex prospect going into the draft and that hasn't changed.

Great exit value in Superflex.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't follow college, so I can't talk about specific names, but I'd say that for me Carlos Hyde profiles very similarly to a typical 1.06 pick (considering his situation).

I think given situation and success to date, Hyde profiles very similarly to a typical top 3 pick. Consider the game we played with Michael last year. Around April CW on him was "random handcuff RB" and he was a run of the mill 2nd round rookie pick. Eventually CW turns, people do the arithmetic of late 2nd + elite measureables + drafted by Seattle + Lynch mileage = stud, and he becomes a late 1st. Then without even making regular season carries he's viewed as a top 50 player. Now consider the story on Hyde. It's almost the same story (not elite measureables, but more predraft hype). EXCEPT he's actually, you know, getting work. So why exactly should we take Yeldon (who draftniks already are souring on and de-hyping), Gordon (held in check by Western Midwest University), or Mike Davis over him. I didn't like Hyde much as a prospect to begin with, either, but I'm ready to admit whatever rudimentary analysis I do pales to seeing Hyde run over actual NFL players. Even if it was Dallas. Who without Sean Lee maybe isn't as good as Western Illinois. Assuming Hyde stays healthy and Gore leaves, I don't see why he's not a top 25 player next offseason, and I don't see more than 2 rookies being in that conversation. Ball elevated that high, and that was after being beat out by a retread, vs. earning carries behind a possible HOFer. Of course Gore could play forever, and be Fred Jackson, but we'll see.

 

[ThreeThousand]

12 team PPR, 1/1/2/1, 2 flex

Team A: Gave Dennis Pitta

Team B: Gave Toby Gerhart, 2013 3rd

 

[maxhyde]

12 team PPR, 1/1/2/1, 2 flex

Team A: Gave Dennis Pitta

Team B: Gave Toby Gerhart, 2013 3rd

TE Premium? If not Gerhart for me and I am a big supporter of Pitta

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't follow college, so I can't talk about specific names, but I'd say that for me Carlos Hyde profiles very similarly to a typical 1.06 pick (considering his situation).

So why exactly should we take Yeldon (who draftniks already are souring on and de-hyping), Gordon (held in check by Western Midwest University), or Mike Davis over him.

I don't think anyone has made that argument. But all 3 are clearly better prospects than Hyde was at this time last year.

As for Hyde being a typical top 3 pick--how so? Simply due to a perceived "+" situation? He was a late 2nd round pick and the 3rd RB selected in the worst RB class I can remember. I took Lacy as high as 1.01 the year before, but I didn't fool myself into thinking I was getting typical 1.01 (or even 1.03) return.

Also, I don't know that SF is the situation you're presenting it as, personally. It's been good for 1,200/8 and 35 targets (and Hyde's no Gore out of the backfield) over the last few years. Very solid for your RB2; nothing to move a Hyde level prospect up to typical 1.03 value, however, IMO. Especially if it's a year before Hyde is a safe start.

ETA: Should mention I am assuming PPR.

 

[maxhyde]

I don't follow college, so I can't talk about specific names, but I'd say that for me Carlos Hyde profiles very similarly to a typical 1.06 pick (considering his situation).

I think given situation and success to date, Hyde profiles very similarly to a typical top 3 pick. Consider the game we played with Michael last year. Around April CW on him was "random handcuff RB" and he was a run of the mill 2nd round rookie pick. Eventually CW turns, people do the arithmetic of late 2nd + elite measureables + drafted by Seattle + Lynch mileage = stud, and he becomes a late 1st. Then without even making regular season carries he's viewed as a top 50 player. Now consider the story on Hyde. It's almost the same story (not elite measureables, but more predraft hype). EXCEPT he's actually, you know, getting work. So why exactly should we take Yeldon (who draftniks already are souring on and de-hyping), Gordon (held in check by Western Midwest University), or Mike Davis over him. I didn't like Hyde much as a prospect to begin with, either, but I'm ready to admit whatever rudimentary analysis I do pales to seeing Hyde run over actual NFL players. Even if it was Dallas. Who without Sean Lee maybe isn't as good as Western Illinois. Assuming Hyde stays healthy and Gore leaves, I don't see why he's not a top 25 player next offseason, and I don't see more than 2 rookies being in that conversation. Ball elevated that high, and that was after being beat out by a retread, vs. earning carries behind a possible HOFer. Of course Gore could play forever, and be Fred Jackson, but we'll see.

I am with Coop on this.

Hyde would likely not be in the list of top 3RB if I were picking for next year today but then I didn't even have him as my clear cut RB2 in this year's uninspiring class

Projecting his status off his game against what might be the worst run defense in the league may not be an accurate overall view of him as a player

 

[Adam Harstad]

I don't follow college, so I can't talk about specific names, but I'd say that for me Carlos Hyde profiles very similarly to a typical 1.06 pick (considering his situation).

I think given situation and success to date, Hyde profiles very similarly to a typical top 3 pick. Consider the game we played with Michael last year. Around April CW on him was "random handcuff RB" and he was a run of the mill 2nd round rookie pick. Eventually CW turns, people do the arithmetic of late 2nd + elite measureables + drafted by Seattle + Lynch mileage = stud, and he becomes a late 1st. Then without even making regular season carries he's viewed as a top 50 player. Now consider the story on Hyde. It's almost the same story (not elite measureables, but more predraft hype). EXCEPT he's actually, you know, getting work. So why exactly should we take Yeldon (who draftniks already are souring on and de-hyping), Gordon (held in check by Western Midwest University), or Mike Davis over him. I didn't like Hyde much as a prospect to begin with, either, but I'm ready to admit whatever rudimentary analysis I do pales to seeing Hyde run over actual NFL players. Even if it was Dallas. Who without Sean Lee maybe isn't as good as Western Illinois. Assuming Hyde stays healthy and Gore leaves, I don't see why he's not a top 25 player next offseason, and I don't see more than 2 rookies being in that conversation. Ball elevated that high, and that was after being beat out by a retread, vs. earning carries behind a possible HOFer. Of course Gore could play forever, and be Fred Jackson, but we'll see.

I think there's two different threads in there. One is "What will Hyde command in a year", and one is "what is Hyde worth". I agree that Hyde profiles as someone who will see his value rise throughout the year. I agree Michael could have commanded more than "generic top-6 pick" at several points. I just don't think Hyde is necessarily worth that (or that Michael was worth that). If you're looking to time the market and buy low / sell high, Hyde is probably a better candidate than the top-6 pick (even given what we know about how draft picks appreciate in value). But from an objective "fundamental value of the asset" standpoint, I think they're about a wash. I think Carlos Hyde is about the quality of prospect I would expect to get from executing a 1.04-1.06 pick in a typical rookie draft, and while Hyde gains the benefit of immediate returns, the pick gains the benefit of potential to hit the jackpot.

Either way, this completely ignores the fact that Keenan Allen is sporting quite a few >s when compared to Marqise Lee.

 

[BostonRob]

Guys, any good trade value charts online for Dynasty leagues? Must be around somewhere!

 

[Hankmoody]

Team A gives

Zach Ertz

Allen Robinson

Team B gives

Percy Harvin

2015 3rd

$2

 

[Adam Harstad]

Team A gives

Zach Ertz

Allen Robinson

Team B gives

Percy Harvin

2015 3rd

$2

Harvin smash.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Guys, any good trade value charts online for Dynasty leagues? Must be around somewhere!

Looking for charts that value veteran players against each other? Or something like a rookie pick value chart?

 

[Adso]

Guys, any good trade value charts online for Dynasty leagues? Must be around somewhere!

Looking for charts that value veteran players against each other? Or something like a rookie pick value chart?

This... speaking for myself of course. Know any good ones SSOG?

 

[BostonRob]

Guys, any good trade value charts online for Dynasty leagues? Must be around somewhere!

Looking for charts that value veteran players against each other? Or something like a rookie pick value chart?

Current players, for in season trades.

Preferably with $ values so you can compare multiplayar deals.

 

[msudaisy26]

12 team PPR, 1/1/2/1, 2 flex

Team A: Gave Dennis Pitta

Team B: Gave Toby Gerhart, 2013 3rd

Hate that trade for you, you gave all that and got nothing in return?

I am kidding I will take Pitta

 

[One More Rep]

Team A gives

Zach Ertz

Allen Robinson

Team B gives

Percy Harvin

2015 3rd

$2

I have to go Harvin at the moment but I do like that other side

 

[jonboltz]

anyone have a deal involving Charles go down yet?

 

[Scoonie Pencil]

Q RR WWW T F K D Scoring: 4pt passing tds, PPR (TE Premium)

Notes: Team A has Matt Ryan and can deal with Cam's injury. Team B had Geno behind Cam. Team B had very little RB depth. Team A had very little WR depth. Team C was starting Sankey at RB2. Team D's WR2 is probably Markus Wheaton and WR was a crapshoot ####uation. Team D has solid RB depth. Team D doesn't have Ellington but does have Dwyer.

Team A Receives: Cam Newton, Jeremy Maclin

Team B Receives: Matt Stafford, Shane Vereen, Steven Ridley

____

Team C Receives: Pierre Thomas

Team D Receives: Andrew Hawins, Stephan Taylor

 

[Scoonie Pencil]

Team A gives

Zach Ertz

Allen Robinson

Team B gives

Percy Harvin

2015 3rd

$2

I have to go Harvin at the moment but I do like that other side

Harvin easy. Closer if Team B is rebuilding.

 

[Rolling_akg]

Markus Wheaton for Ladarius Green

 

[Scoonie Pencil]

Markus Wheaton for Ladarius Green

Green

 

[deadlyrange0321]

12 team PPR

Team A trades:

Roddy White

Team B trades:

Victor Cruz

2015 2nd

 

[bluebluejays]

12 team, standard scoring....weak at RB and probably not going to be super-competitive this year.

Team A gives: Percy Harvin

Team B gives: Christine Michael

Thoughts?

 

[maxhyde]

Markus Wheaton for Ladarius Green

Green

 

[maxhyde]

12 team, standard scoring....weak at RB and probably not going to be super-competitive this year.

Team A gives: Percy Harvin

Team B gives: Christine Michael

Thoughts?

Harvin...Harvin is too good to give away for a guy who has yet to rise beyond backup to the backup

 

[maxhyde]

12 team PPR

Team A trades:

Roddy White

Team B trades:

Victor Cruz

2015 2nd

Cruz...pick is on the wrong side

 

[Adam Harstad]

Guys, any good trade value charts online for Dynasty leagues? Must be around somewhere!

Looking for charts that value veteran players against each other? Or something like a rookie pick value chart?

This... speaking for myself of course. Know any good ones SSOG?

Nope. This was the big project we were working on in the DynastyRankings.net days, but it's kind of the white whale of dynasty leagues. Obviously all sorts of difficulties arising from different league settings (PPR? Non? Start 2 WRs? 3? Flex? TE Premium? Deep benches? 16-team league?). Beyond that, the biggest problem was creating trade values that were internally consistent when you started getting into multi-player years. A $20 might be worth a $10, and a $10 might be worth two $5s, but that doesn't mean the $20 was worth four $5s. We were working on creating some sort of dummy value to represent unbalanced player deals when the site went under. I think it's probably a solvable problem if you automate it a bit (i.e. create a formula to derive trade value from a set of rankings), though automation obviously produces slightly less optimal results. I tried building one manually, but it's just a crushing project to try to keep up with by hand, at least if you plan on doing it any justice (as opposed to dashing something off and calling it good). For FBGs I'm writing two weekly columns, updating rankings bi-weekly, and contributing to various other staff features during the season, and I would say that keeping a quality trade value chart was more work than all of that combined.

Maybe during the offseason if I feel ambitious I might take another whack at the problem, but dynasty really doesn't lend itself to charts and formulas like redraft does. Which is one of the big reasons why I love dynasty so much. Redraft is more like checkers- it's testable, it's solvable, it's more realistic to expect that optimal strategies can be found. Dynasty's more like chess. There are so many variables that there's not really anyone out there who can claim they have it all figured out. You can come up with best practices and rules of thumb, but that's about it.

 

[Adam Harstad]

12 team, standard scoring....weak at RB and probably not going to be super-competitive this year.

Team A gives: Percy Harvin

Team B gives: Christine Michael

Thoughts?

Harvin Smash.

 

[squistion]

12 team, standard scoring....weak at RB and probably not going to be super-competitive this year.

Team A gives: Percy Harvin

Team B gives: Christine Michael

Thoughts?

Harvin Smash.

You love using the phrase Smash.

Is this what you mean by it?

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=smash

 

[thriftyrocker]

Also, I don't know that SF is the situation you're presenting it as, personally. It's been good for 1,200/8 and 35 targets (and Hyde's no Gore out of the backfield) over the last few years.

Certainly that's valid. They currently don't throw to the RB as much as other teams, and its possible his (as well as Michael's) upside is limited in PPR leagues compared to McCoy and Charles types. I see no reason to limit his TD upside, but we'll see.

Either way, this completely ignores the fact that Keenan Allen is sporting quite a few >s when compared to Marqise Lee.

Yeah, I have pretty much ignored the original trade because I agreed with everyone. Allen for Hyde was more interesting to me, and what it would/should actually take to get Hyde at this point.

 

[Adam Harstad]

You love using the phrase Smash.

Is this what you mean by it?

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=smash

No, something more like this.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Guys, any good trade value charts online for Dynasty leagues? Must be around somewhere!

Looking for charts that value veteran players against each other? Or something like a rookie pick value chart?

This... speaking for myself of course. Know any good ones SSOG?

Nope.

DLF ADP is the best resource for this. Combine with Dodds draft pick trade calculator and you'd get a rough order of magnitude.

 

[squistion]

You love using the phrase Smash.

Is this what you mean by it?

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=smash

No, something more like this.

Well that makes sense as Harvin always reminds me of The Hulk.

 

[One More Rep]

12 team PPR

Team A trades:

Roddy White

Team B trades:

Victor Cruz

2015 2nd

Cruz...pick is on the wrong side

Agreed

 

[bluebluejays]

12 team, standard scoring....weak at RB and probably not going to be super-competitive this year.

Team A gives: Percy Harvin

Team B gives: Christine Michael

Thoughts?

Harvin Smash.

But should it matter that my other WR are Julio, CP, Cooks, DeAndre, A Robinson, etc....and RBs are T-Rich, Ellington, Bryce Brown, J Hill, Mason, Crowell?