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**Official 2014 In Season Dynasty Trade Thread** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter r0llin_game
- Start date
EthnicFury
Footballguy
14 team qrrwwtff
Gave: Deangelo Williams, Bryce Brown, 2015 2 (mid-late)
Got: Joique Bell
Gave: Deangelo Williams, Bryce Brown, 2015 2 (mid-late)
Got: Joique Bell
cstu
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
The young starting RB for the Seahawks is a top FF RB. Michael has the physical attributes to earn that job so really it's a matter of risk tolerance.
If Lynch is cut and Michael is named the starter next year then he'll be considering a top 10 FF RB by almost everybody. Some people are will to assume those two things happen now so they don't have to overpay later.
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Footballguy
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Footballguy
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Footballguy
Unless it is a top 5 1st I would take Benjamin. If the 1st and 2nd are that close again then it is a slam dunk
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Crazy deal in a normal league. Even crazier given 12*9 skill players start each week.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
My thinking as well. I've had teams I expected to be top 3 finish bottom 3, so nothing is a given. But I like my side of the gamble as well.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
1st
...or sooner if they read this.
I might take Brown/2nd and give up Joique's production this year
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
This makes sense to me in best ball format. In traditional leagues, I'd have held onto McKinnon/Dobson.
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One More Rep
Footballguy
And the scoring is very fair towards the IDPs. The likes of Watt score like a very good QB/RB/WR. Even with the picks being 1.12 and 4.12 I'd take that side.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
14 team PPR, devy league, TE premium.
Gave:
Heath Miller
Stevan Ridley
2015 3rd
Got:
T.J. Yeldon
2015 4th
Gave:
Heath Miller
Stevan Ridley
2015 3rd
Got:
T.J. Yeldon
2015 4th
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Footballguy
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Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
EthnicFury
Footballguy
Yeah, could go either way on overall value but for a contending team and considering how deep the league is/hard it is to find RBs on the wire and fill out a full lineup I felt like it made a ton of sense. Brown definitely could turn into a player though (though I've never been super-encouraged by his inability to figure out how to hold the football or run through the designed hole).
I go T-Rich here as well. I've been buying in a couple leagues when I can get him for dirt cheap. He will never be ADP at this point but looking at Ingram's semi-resurgence I'm starting to think some of these backs from the Alabamas, Wisconsins and other dominant Line schools of the world might have a similar learning curve to a small school prospect as they get used to having to actually read the play and look for holes sooner than being 5 yards downfield.
RG3 (I'm not really a Manziel guy though)
I own Manziel in a few 2QB leagues and this is a panic sell of RGIII...no one can be that optimistic on Manziel/Hoyer combo
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The_Head_Ape
Footballguy
10 team start 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE
Team A got: Cam Newton
Team B got: Doug Martin, Bobby Rainey, and a 2015 1st (likely mid-late)
Team A got: Cam Newton
Team B got: Doug Martin, Bobby Rainey, and a 2015 1st (likely mid-late)
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Caaaaam. By a country mile. With only 20 starting RBs, why would you give up a top 10 player for a guy who isn't producing.
EBF
Footballguy
I agree with humpback that all of the Christine Michael stuff has been covered many times over in his thread. Whatever you believe about him right now isn't likely to change for a while. That being said, I'll just address this quickly:
Think about a guy like Marques Colston. At what point did you decide that he was a legit high level NFL starter? Did you decide that in his rookie preseason when the Saints shipped Stallworth out to clear a spot for him in the starting lineup? Did you decide after one good game? After one good month? After one good season? After two good seasons? Different FF owners react at different rates to different players. From my perspective, you guys are just missing the road signs with Michael, but obviously from your perspective there either are no signs or the signs are discouraging (i.e. him being "behind" Turbin). We're doing the same thing, but we're putting different values on different data points and thus reaching different conclusions. Not much more to it than that.
All that said, Michael is not a guy that I would expect the "look backward to look forward" crowd to appreciate. People wired to think like that aren't going to "get" him until he's succeeded beyond a reasonable doubt. As I've often said, that approach is great for avoiding big mistakes and embarrassing calls, but it's also great for ensuring that you miss out on a huge percentage of breakout players (because there will always be someone willing to outbid you for a Patterson, Michael, Cooks, Hunter, Hyde while you play the "prove it" game). Different strokes for different folks, but I like the "look forward to look backward" mindset myself and that's why most of my analysis is based on what's going to happen and not what already did.
I think the main area where I disagree with you guys is the idea that he hasn't done anything in the NFL. "Generic 2nd round RB with scary measurables" is about how I viewed Michael from April-July of last season. However, I was following Hawks camp reports closely last year and watching all of their preseason games. He consistently drew rave reviews from practice observers, racked up silly stats in the preseason, and looked like a monster doing it. If that counts as "nothing" to you guys then that's your MO, but for me it was enough to push him up in my estimation considerably. That's why my tone on him changed from cautious optimism around draft season to bullish optimism ever since last fall. I think we all try to incorporate significant new information into our thinking, but we often disagree on what constitutes significant new information.
Think about a guy like Marques Colston. At what point did you decide that he was a legit high level NFL starter? Did you decide that in his rookie preseason when the Saints shipped Stallworth out to clear a spot for him in the starting lineup? Did you decide after one good game? After one good month? After one good season? After two good seasons? Different FF owners react at different rates to different players. From my perspective, you guys are just missing the road signs with Michael, but obviously from your perspective there either are no signs or the signs are discouraging (i.e. him being "behind" Turbin). We're doing the same thing, but we're putting different values on different data points and thus reaching different conclusions. Not much more to it than that.
All that said, Michael is not a guy that I would expect the "look backward to look forward" crowd to appreciate. People wired to think like that aren't going to "get" him until he's succeeded beyond a reasonable doubt. As I've often said, that approach is great for avoiding big mistakes and embarrassing calls, but it's also great for ensuring that you miss out on a huge percentage of breakout players (because there will always be someone willing to outbid you for a Patterson, Michael, Cooks, Hunter, Hyde while you play the "prove it" game). Different strokes for different folks, but I like the "look forward to look backward" mindset myself and that's why most of my analysis is based on what's going to happen and not what already did.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
I think you're trying to pigeonhole the people who disagree with you. I wish you wouldn't. I have no problem ranking players high before they prove it. Watkins is my #18 overall player- I've got him higher than any staffer except for Parsons (and I don't think even you would try to out-youth Parsons). I've got Tavon Austin 13 spots higher than the staff consensus (and 6 spots higher than any other individual staffer) despite not having "seen it" yet with him. Jordan Reed was my #15 dynasty TE last offseason as a 3rd round pick with zero career snaps. I was the highest staffer on Julius Thomas last offseason, dating all the way back to May when Bloom and I were the only ones who even had him ranked. Who has two thumbs and is one of the two highest staffers on Manziel, Bortles, and Bridgewater? This guy! Who is the guy who has been saying for years that nobody in the NFL- not no one- is worth four rookie first round picks? That'd be me, picking the side of the yet-to-prove-it over the side of the succeeded-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt. Do you not remember the epic debates I used to have to get in to try to justify my high Devin Hester ranking when he first switched to WR? What had he proven at that point that was causing me to rank him that high?
Maybe it's easier for you to think that I am lower on Christine Michael than you are because I routinely need to "see it" before I'm going to place fair value on anyone, and that's some sort of flaw in my operating system that savvy owners like you are able to exploit. The truth is that I'm lower on Christine Michael than you are because I just don't think Christine Michael is that good of a prospect. I think the Michael backers are not adequately accounting for the full range of possible outcomes and pricing Michael fairly based on the resulting risk and reward. I think when you say you're pricing him on "what's going to happen", what you really mean is that you're pricing him based on your expectations, and I think you should be pricing him on EV instead. And I resent the implication that most of my analysis is based on what already happened rather than an attempt to predict what is going to happen. Honestly, that's a ludicrous straw man, and I'd be glad to dress it up in armor, stick it on a horse, and take a few more turns in the lists with it.
We're both trying to predict what will happen, here. You have your methods. I have mine. Sometimes we disagree. When we do, it's not because you're enlightened and have discovered the secret of what we're really trying to measure while I'm fumbling around in the dark with a 3-year-old copy of the NFL Record and Fact book and a 300-level stats textbook from the '70s. It's because sometimes smart, educated, earnest, well-intentioned people disagree. Be thankful they do, because otherwise fantasy football would be an awfully boring hobby.
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Good post - well written.
I do think you are missing the mark on Michael though. The guy is ultra talented and explosive. I cannot think of a reason that I would not want to have him on my dynasty team - other than "he is not doing it right now".
The_Head_Ape
Footballguy
10 team start 2QB, 2RB, 4WR. PPR
Team A got: Lacy, Starks, Hurns, Moncrief
Team B got: KAllen, Vereen, Roddy
Team A got: Lacy, Starks, Hurns, Moncrief
Team B got: KAllen, Vereen, Roddy
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DreamTheater
Footballguy
12 team league PPR.
Team A gives Alf Morris and Celek
Team B gives Khiry Robinson and Olsen.
A needs a RB, B needs a TE.
Team A gives Alf Morris and Celek
Team B gives Khiry Robinson and Olsen.
A needs a RB, B needs a TE.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
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Footballguy
Hmm, tough call. In 2RB, I might go Lacy side. Especially if Hurns has another good week.
Ellington & Bell in 2RB leagues.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I've only played in 1 start 4WR league, but from that experience--WRs are the major seperator. If you can start a guy like Roddy at your WR2 spot, while the average owner is starting Greg Jennings or Nate Washington--it'll take you far.
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Footballguy
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