Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Anarchy League 2 Draft Order & Smack Talk Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Yudkin
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well during the invasion (2003-2004) internet time was very limited. I was able to do a little surfing and set lineups for my team but that was about it.Right now things are much more built up and established here. The US Army did create the internet. We have it at work but some sites are blocked (like MFL). I have a ISP for my laptop that I can do anything on during my offtime. For people who don't want to pay for that service there is MWR where they can use a computer in 30 minute blocks. It's really not limited at all. I just work very long hours so I don't have time to focus on things like this while I am working. Right now (August) it is so hot here (120-130 degrees every day) that things have really slowed down a lot. So that convieniently has given more time to be online in the past few weeks.I will try to get Duckboys write up done today.
Fiddles
Footballguy
ive wanted to ask bri's question too. interesting. u guys need anything over there?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Added Duckboy to post 197 of my writeups. For those who don't want to scroll:
Duckboy
8.13 Bills QB - The Bills improved their Oline last season but that still did not help their passing game much. Another season of experience for Edwards and the addition of Hardy at WR may help them to perform a bit better in 2008 but I am not expecting a dramatic improvement. I don’t like the value of this pick because I still see the Bills passing game as being one of the bottom feeders. They were 30th last year and not a whole lot of reason in my eyes to expect them to be much better in 2008.
9.04 49ers QB - The upside of this pick is Martz. I can justify taking them because of this even though the 49ers were dead last in passing last year. Still don’t expect a lot here but I like the upside more than I like the Bills pick.
A pretty bad pair of Qbs will not help this teams cause in 2008. I think he could have waited even longer instead of using the 2 mid round picks on these guys. I looked them over and the only QB pair I like less than this is Calbears Qbs. Grade F
5.04 Edge - I like the value of this pick because Edge is one of the few true feature Rbs in the league right now. Age is certainly catching up with him but he improved his YPC from 3.4 in 2006 to 3.8 in 2007 with the Cardinals. Chance at playoffs in a weakened NFC West.
16.13 Lorenzo Booker - This pick is a prayer that Booker will see a lot of time if Westbrook is injured. And that is not a given.
17.04 Michael Bush - 3rd string RB for the offensively challenged Raiders. I don’t see many points here.
18.13 Darren Sproles - Another prayer that Sproles will see action if LT should be injured. Certainly not a given. Probably the only few points here are if Sproles does something on special teams.
The only RB I see getting significant points here is Edge who is on the downside of his career. RB position was pretty much ignored for the whole draft so this team better be strong somewhere else. Grade F
2.13 Anquan Boldin - I think it is pretty clear that Boldin is WR2 for the Cardinals after what they gave Fitzgerald. Boldin has struggled with injuries also. While he is a very talented WR I don’t see him getting the same high targets as he has before. The possibility of him being traded to a team that will use him more is what I would be hoping for. Chance at playoffs due to weakened NFC West.
4.13 Jerricho Cotchery - Addition of Favre should help him increase his production. Good WR who catches a lot of passes which helps in this scoring system. Outside chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard due to improved Oline and QB.
6.13 Santana Moss - Leading WR for the Redskins. Has only been fully healthy once in his 7 year career. New WCO will put him in harms way more often on slants than he has been in previous offenses. Upside is there for a good season if he can stay healthy and possible playoffs.
7.04 Anthony Gonzalez - I really like Gonzalez to be a value pick this year. He showed a lot as a rookie building chemistry with Peyton from the beginning that started to pay off latter last season. I think Marvin Harrison is done and will be used as a decoy much of the time allowing Gonzalez to get more looks out of the slot. I see AG producing some good numbers even if Harrison plays all season and upside for a lot more if Harrison does not take targets from him. Almost a lock for playoffs.
11.04 Mushin Muhammed - 35 years old now and his game has declined. Some may attribute that to being with the Bears poor Qbs and that he will have a resurgance now that he has returned to the Panthers but I think his game has always been physical and he is not able to beat defensive backs like he once was anymore. So while I do expect Delhomme to look his way a lot I don’t see him returning to his former production there even when Steve Smith is out. He just cannot beat defensive backs as well as he once did anymore. Not bad value though for this late of a pick as he will probably get a lot of targets.
13.04 Michael Clayton - Worth a shot because I think Galloway is finished. His work ethic has been terrible though and he isn’t really gifted physically.
These are a decent set of WR but considering the investment put into them I don’t see a lot to get excited about. Cotch is probably the best value pick out of the group. I don’t see Quan as that much better than him if at all. While I am sure this group will be better than some I don’t see any true stars here. Grade B-
1.04 Jason Witten - Solid pick as Witten finished as the 6th overall player in this format last year. I expect Witten to be heavily involved the passing game once again in 2008 and the Cowgurls should make it to the playoffs again.
3.04 Jeremy Shockey - As long as Shockey can stay healthy I see him being very involved in the high powered Saints passing offense. Brees has shown he can make very good use of the TE before with Gates so its possible for Shockey to put up similar numbers. I expect the Saints to make the playoffs because of their improvements on defense.
I think it will be hard for any team to match what Duckboy has here from the TE position with both players able to compete for TE1 numbers. Both should get playoff action as well. Grade A
14.13 Neil Rackers - Has been the #1 Kicker before. Plays in a friendly environment. Possible playoff team in weakened NFC West. I’m guessing that Duckboy sees the same things that I do from Arizona this year. As the 10th Kicker taken this was pretty nice value. I was targeting him too when I took Longwell instead.
15.04 Matt Prater - Word out of camp is this guy has a very good leg hitting 50+ Fgs with regularity. Mile high kickers have been good ones to have in the past. Don’t see playoffs for Denver this year.
Decent duo but not one of the best. Grade C
10.13 Colts Defense - Lots of turnover and sacks potential. Playoff team. Their weaknesses are not penalized in this scoring.
12.13 Tampa Bay Defense - Another cover 2 defense similar to the Colts D with less chances of the playoffs.
2 good defenses for this format without investing as much as other teams did to get them (drafted 10th and 17th) I like the value of the picks although 10th round still seems early for drafting a guaranteed position. While I realize that defenses start showing up in VBD around round 8 I don’t think there is enough separation from them except for an elite 2 or 3 each year to merit drafting them so high even though that is what people do every year. I like how Duckboy handled the situation and I like his picks. I always wait longer and try to have my picks give me more upside value while hopefully gaining with my other picks in the meantime while I am waiting. Grade C+
Duckboy has a solid strategy for this format in valuing TE and WR more than other positions because of the PPR scoring. Overall I do not like his team because I think he is hurting too much at the RB and QB positions. I would call his draft safe in that he took players who should get him solid production in the 1st 7 rounds of his draft but in playing safe I think he passed up opportunity to distance himself from the pack. Instead of taking the Qbs where he did I think he should have waited and took some RB risks to help him there instead of leaving them for the end of his draft. Or he could have kept taking WR to sure up a advantage there. I did spend a little time looking at what his other options were from the 4 slot and I do see why he chose to take who he did. The 4 slot is not really an advantageous draft position in 16 teams if you do not take RB early. I wont argue taking Witten though as that was a solid pick. I just see a different strategy from his draft position possibly getting better results, but it would require more risk. Grade B-
Duckboy
8.13 Bills QB - The Bills improved their Oline last season but that still did not help their passing game much. Another season of experience for Edwards and the addition of Hardy at WR may help them to perform a bit better in 2008 but I am not expecting a dramatic improvement. I don’t like the value of this pick because I still see the Bills passing game as being one of the bottom feeders. They were 30th last year and not a whole lot of reason in my eyes to expect them to be much better in 2008.
9.04 49ers QB - The upside of this pick is Martz. I can justify taking them because of this even though the 49ers were dead last in passing last year. Still don’t expect a lot here but I like the upside more than I like the Bills pick.
A pretty bad pair of Qbs will not help this teams cause in 2008. I think he could have waited even longer instead of using the 2 mid round picks on these guys. I looked them over and the only QB pair I like less than this is Calbears Qbs. Grade F
5.04 Edge - I like the value of this pick because Edge is one of the few true feature Rbs in the league right now. Age is certainly catching up with him but he improved his YPC from 3.4 in 2006 to 3.8 in 2007 with the Cardinals. Chance at playoffs in a weakened NFC West.
16.13 Lorenzo Booker - This pick is a prayer that Booker will see a lot of time if Westbrook is injured. And that is not a given.
17.04 Michael Bush - 3rd string RB for the offensively challenged Raiders. I don’t see many points here.
18.13 Darren Sproles - Another prayer that Sproles will see action if LT should be injured. Certainly not a given. Probably the only few points here are if Sproles does something on special teams.
The only RB I see getting significant points here is Edge who is on the downside of his career. RB position was pretty much ignored for the whole draft so this team better be strong somewhere else. Grade F
2.13 Anquan Boldin - I think it is pretty clear that Boldin is WR2 for the Cardinals after what they gave Fitzgerald. Boldin has struggled with injuries also. While he is a very talented WR I don’t see him getting the same high targets as he has before. The possibility of him being traded to a team that will use him more is what I would be hoping for. Chance at playoffs due to weakened NFC West.
4.13 Jerricho Cotchery - Addition of Favre should help him increase his production. Good WR who catches a lot of passes which helps in this scoring system. Outside chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard due to improved Oline and QB.
6.13 Santana Moss - Leading WR for the Redskins. Has only been fully healthy once in his 7 year career. New WCO will put him in harms way more often on slants than he has been in previous offenses. Upside is there for a good season if he can stay healthy and possible playoffs.
7.04 Anthony Gonzalez - I really like Gonzalez to be a value pick this year. He showed a lot as a rookie building chemistry with Peyton from the beginning that started to pay off latter last season. I think Marvin Harrison is done and will be used as a decoy much of the time allowing Gonzalez to get more looks out of the slot. I see AG producing some good numbers even if Harrison plays all season and upside for a lot more if Harrison does not take targets from him. Almost a lock for playoffs.
11.04 Mushin Muhammed - 35 years old now and his game has declined. Some may attribute that to being with the Bears poor Qbs and that he will have a resurgance now that he has returned to the Panthers but I think his game has always been physical and he is not able to beat defensive backs like he once was anymore. So while I do expect Delhomme to look his way a lot I don’t see him returning to his former production there even when Steve Smith is out. He just cannot beat defensive backs as well as he once did anymore. Not bad value though for this late of a pick as he will probably get a lot of targets.
13.04 Michael Clayton - Worth a shot because I think Galloway is finished. His work ethic has been terrible though and he isn’t really gifted physically.
These are a decent set of WR but considering the investment put into them I don’t see a lot to get excited about. Cotch is probably the best value pick out of the group. I don’t see Quan as that much better than him if at all. While I am sure this group will be better than some I don’t see any true stars here. Grade B-
1.04 Jason Witten - Solid pick as Witten finished as the 6th overall player in this format last year. I expect Witten to be heavily involved the passing game once again in 2008 and the Cowgurls should make it to the playoffs again.
3.04 Jeremy Shockey - As long as Shockey can stay healthy I see him being very involved in the high powered Saints passing offense. Brees has shown he can make very good use of the TE before with Gates so its possible for Shockey to put up similar numbers. I expect the Saints to make the playoffs because of their improvements on defense.
I think it will be hard for any team to match what Duckboy has here from the TE position with both players able to compete for TE1 numbers. Both should get playoff action as well. Grade A
14.13 Neil Rackers - Has been the #1 Kicker before. Plays in a friendly environment. Possible playoff team in weakened NFC West. I’m guessing that Duckboy sees the same things that I do from Arizona this year. As the 10th Kicker taken this was pretty nice value. I was targeting him too when I took Longwell instead.
15.04 Matt Prater - Word out of camp is this guy has a very good leg hitting 50+ Fgs with regularity. Mile high kickers have been good ones to have in the past. Don’t see playoffs for Denver this year.
Decent duo but not one of the best. Grade C
10.13 Colts Defense - Lots of turnover and sacks potential. Playoff team. Their weaknesses are not penalized in this scoring.
12.13 Tampa Bay Defense - Another cover 2 defense similar to the Colts D with less chances of the playoffs.
2 good defenses for this format without investing as much as other teams did to get them (drafted 10th and 17th) I like the value of the picks although 10th round still seems early for drafting a guaranteed position. While I realize that defenses start showing up in VBD around round 8 I don’t think there is enough separation from them except for an elite 2 or 3 each year to merit drafting them so high even though that is what people do every year. I like how Duckboy handled the situation and I like his picks. I always wait longer and try to have my picks give me more upside value while hopefully gaining with my other picks in the meantime while I am waiting. Grade C+
Duckboy has a solid strategy for this format in valuing TE and WR more than other positions because of the PPR scoring. Overall I do not like his team because I think he is hurting too much at the RB and QB positions. I would call his draft safe in that he took players who should get him solid production in the 1st 7 rounds of his draft but in playing safe I think he passed up opportunity to distance himself from the pack. Instead of taking the Qbs where he did I think he should have waited and took some RB risks to help him there instead of leaving them for the end of his draft. Or he could have kept taking WR to sure up a advantage there. I did spend a little time looking at what his other options were from the 4 slot and I do see why he chose to take who he did. The 4 slot is not really an advantageous draft position in 16 teams if you do not take RB early. I wont argue taking Witten though as that was a solid pick. I just see a different strategy from his draft position possibly getting better results, but it would require more risk. Grade B-
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I'm good but thanks for asking. I only have 40 more days here and this 15 months will finally be over.
Soldiers in Afganistan are probably a lot more hard up getting things than those of us here in Iraq. So if you want to help out I would look at sending care packages that way. I want to thank folks for being so supportive of soldiers here as I think the feedback has been really positive regardless of the persons political leanings and opinions about the Wars. It's nice to know that so many Americans can seperate those things unlike some of the culture we saw during Vietnam.The Iraqi goverment and its Army have made a lot of progress this year as you may have been reading. That is very real and long lasting success in my opinion although there certainly will be issues with sectarian violence still to come, especially after we draw down forces here as has been being talked about by around 2010 timeframe. But those problems are persistent and will be a challenge no matter when we pull out of here. You see there is a lot of money being made on the oil that the tribes are still going to be fighting over. But now that the Iraqi Army has gotten strong enough to handle their own security and acting on behalf of the goverment I do think that time has come. For us to send the majority of our soldiers home and only leave soldiers here to support the Iraqi Army with intellegence, communications, logistics.If you are invested in any of the major contractors supporting here I would recomend moving those investments into something else. Because the Iraqi goverment has little interest in doing business with them and they still have expensive obligations to fufill that will hurt their bottom line during the transition. I feel so much sympathy for them. 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Sweet, I came to read more about breakable's experience, in a fantasy football forum for mock drafts, no less. And I get some good advice on shorts. Who woulda thunk it?
But yeah, can't thank you enough, regardless of my stance, which is, and always has been, very much against the invasion. But you make me feel okay to be able to express that (because of what you said). In turn, I know you realize people that don't want you there were actually on your side. I never understood how that is taken any other way, but whatever...
Thanks, again.
But yeah, can't thank you enough, regardless of my stance, which is, and always has been, very much against the invasion. But you make me feel okay to be able to express that (because of what you said). In turn, I know you realize people that don't want you there were actually on your side. I never understood how that is taken any other way, but whatever...
Thanks, again.
that's interesting, thanks for sharing.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Added joffer to the write ups. For those who don't want to look back:
Joffer
1.05 Colts QB - Solid lock for 4000+ yards and 30 TD since the year 2000. Playoffs in the bag.
18.12 Atlanta QB - Not bad for the last round considering the weapons they have and likelihood that they will be playing catch up.
Solid production from Manning (as long as he is healthy.. Which he always has been) is one of the surest things in football. Ryan has played decently for a rookie and has weapons to work with. Not bad for the last pick of the draft. Grade lower than Anarchy’s just because Peyton is not Brady. Grade A-
2.12 Larry Johnson - Will get a lot of action. But the Oline is not any better than last year. LJ needs to stay healthy.
3.05 MJD - I actually like MJD slightly better than LJ for this season. I think his touches will increase and this guy is sensational every time he has the ball. Possible playoff team again.
10.12 Maurice Morris - Still locked in RBBC for now. But I think Morris is the better RB than Julius Jones and Morris could be the man and not look back. Great value pick for the 10th round. Doubtful to make playoffs.
14.12 Andre Hall - The other Denver RB for 2008. Great value this late as I expect him to put up some points no matter what and he has a chance to take over as the lead back if something should happen to Young.
I like the value of all of these picks. Joffer takes advantage of what fell to him and gets 2 sure RB performers then follows up with 2 RB later in the draft who will get points and have the upside to get a lot more than people expect from them. Grade B
4.12 Brandon Marshall - Great WR who fell in the draft due to off the field problems and at least a 2 week suspension causing him to miss time.Still as Denvers primary weapon I expect him to catch up quickly with other Wrs once he gets on the field.
5.05 Bobby Engram - Good value pick before he got injured. Now joffer has to deal with his 2 highest Wrs missing time. Doubtful to make playoffs.
7.05 Bernard Berrian - Deep threat WR signed by the Vikings for use on play action. Won’t get as many targets with the Vikings. Good chance of at least one playoff game.
11.05 Antwan Randle El - WR2 and target 3 for the Redskins although he may fit the WCO better than S.Moss does. That and special teams give him some upside. Still don’t expect a lot here. Playoffs are possible.
13.05 Derek Hagan - Starting WR with Pennington for the Dolphins who will likely be playing catch up for some decent garbage points.
16.12 Cortney Taylor - rumored to be Engrams replacement while he is out. We’ll see.
These WR would be a lot better if Marshall and Engram were not going to automatically miss quite a bit of time. I consider these players to be solid but unexciting picks except for Marshall who is a wild card. I would rate these Wr as average or middle of the pack if they were not missing time but I have to downgrade them for that. Grade D+
6.12 LJ Smith - Very active TE when he is healthy, but he has yet to be healthy for a full season. His QB has been injured several seasons in a row now also. There is some upside here but an awful lot of risk.
9.05 Ben Utecht - Primary TE now with Palmer. Bengals have no history of using the TE a lot from their current offense. But maybe that will change.
Not a very strong duo here. They do have enough upside to tread water and stop the bleeding for joffer at the position if LJ and McNabb stay healthy and Utect manages 40 catches. Grade C-
15.05 John Casay - Decent kicker for this late of a pick. Remains to be seen how improved the offense is. Unlikely to add anything for playoffs.
17.05 Taylor Mehlhaff - Not assured to win the job. Great value if his does kicking for the high power Saints offense but drawing zeros all year here if he doesn’t.
I like that joffer waited this late but if Mehlhaff doesn’t win the job he is going to lose over 100 some points to all teams that have 2 starters. Grade D (improves to B if Mehlahaff win the job)
8.12 San Diego Defense - Highest scoring defense in this format last year. High pick to get them but this is one of the few teams worth taking high.
12.12 Philly Defense - This defense is just ok now that many of its stars have gotten old. I would have taken the Saints or Colts with this pick because they are more sure to make the playoffs and they actually have more playmakers.
One top 3 defense and a average one. Both were drafted in the top 16. Grade B
I like what this team has at QB and RB. Unfortunately it doesent have enough at WR or TE to be competitive imo. The injury to Engram really hurts and it was too late in the draft for joffer to try to fix it. I don’t see this team competing this year although I don’t really fault joffers strategy for that. He just got bit by bad luck already. More injuries can even the playing field for him over time. Grade C
Next up Old Milwaukee...
Joffer
1.05 Colts QB - Solid lock for 4000+ yards and 30 TD since the year 2000. Playoffs in the bag.
18.12 Atlanta QB - Not bad for the last round considering the weapons they have and likelihood that they will be playing catch up.
Solid production from Manning (as long as he is healthy.. Which he always has been) is one of the surest things in football. Ryan has played decently for a rookie and has weapons to work with. Not bad for the last pick of the draft. Grade lower than Anarchy’s just because Peyton is not Brady. Grade A-
2.12 Larry Johnson - Will get a lot of action. But the Oline is not any better than last year. LJ needs to stay healthy.
3.05 MJD - I actually like MJD slightly better than LJ for this season. I think his touches will increase and this guy is sensational every time he has the ball. Possible playoff team again.
10.12 Maurice Morris - Still locked in RBBC for now. But I think Morris is the better RB than Julius Jones and Morris could be the man and not look back. Great value pick for the 10th round. Doubtful to make playoffs.
14.12 Andre Hall - The other Denver RB for 2008. Great value this late as I expect him to put up some points no matter what and he has a chance to take over as the lead back if something should happen to Young.
I like the value of all of these picks. Joffer takes advantage of what fell to him and gets 2 sure RB performers then follows up with 2 RB later in the draft who will get points and have the upside to get a lot more than people expect from them. Grade B
4.12 Brandon Marshall - Great WR who fell in the draft due to off the field problems and at least a 2 week suspension causing him to miss time.Still as Denvers primary weapon I expect him to catch up quickly with other Wrs once he gets on the field.
5.05 Bobby Engram - Good value pick before he got injured. Now joffer has to deal with his 2 highest Wrs missing time. Doubtful to make playoffs.
7.05 Bernard Berrian - Deep threat WR signed by the Vikings for use on play action. Won’t get as many targets with the Vikings. Good chance of at least one playoff game.
11.05 Antwan Randle El - WR2 and target 3 for the Redskins although he may fit the WCO better than S.Moss does. That and special teams give him some upside. Still don’t expect a lot here. Playoffs are possible.
13.05 Derek Hagan - Starting WR with Pennington for the Dolphins who will likely be playing catch up for some decent garbage points.
16.12 Cortney Taylor - rumored to be Engrams replacement while he is out. We’ll see.
These WR would be a lot better if Marshall and Engram were not going to automatically miss quite a bit of time. I consider these players to be solid but unexciting picks except for Marshall who is a wild card. I would rate these Wr as average or middle of the pack if they were not missing time but I have to downgrade them for that. Grade D+
6.12 LJ Smith - Very active TE when he is healthy, but he has yet to be healthy for a full season. His QB has been injured several seasons in a row now also. There is some upside here but an awful lot of risk.
9.05 Ben Utecht - Primary TE now with Palmer. Bengals have no history of using the TE a lot from their current offense. But maybe that will change.
Not a very strong duo here. They do have enough upside to tread water and stop the bleeding for joffer at the position if LJ and McNabb stay healthy and Utect manages 40 catches. Grade C-
15.05 John Casay - Decent kicker for this late of a pick. Remains to be seen how improved the offense is. Unlikely to add anything for playoffs.
17.05 Taylor Mehlhaff - Not assured to win the job. Great value if his does kicking for the high power Saints offense but drawing zeros all year here if he doesn’t.
I like that joffer waited this late but if Mehlhaff doesn’t win the job he is going to lose over 100 some points to all teams that have 2 starters. Grade D (improves to B if Mehlahaff win the job)
8.12 San Diego Defense - Highest scoring defense in this format last year. High pick to get them but this is one of the few teams worth taking high.
12.12 Philly Defense - This defense is just ok now that many of its stars have gotten old. I would have taken the Saints or Colts with this pick because they are more sure to make the playoffs and they actually have more playmakers.
One top 3 defense and a average one. Both were drafted in the top 16. Grade B
I like what this team has at QB and RB. Unfortunately it doesent have enough at WR or TE to be competitive imo. The injury to Engram really hurts and it was too late in the draft for joffer to try to fix it. I don’t see this team competing this year although I don’t really fault joffers strategy for that. He just got bit by bad luck already. More injuries can even the playing field for him over time. Grade C
Next up Old Milwaukee...
Tau837
Footballguy
Updated with 8/23 projections, obviously with the same caveats:2834.3 Just Win Baby2750.1 CalBear2716.0 Biabreakable2705.5 Anarchy992689.2 radballs2663.9 Old Milwaukee2651.0 Fiddles2648.2 Jiggyonthehut2644.5 nittanylion2638.0 Duckboy2573.1 joffer2551.5 There It Is2550.2 Captain Hook2463.8 Bri2460.9 Sinrman2285.0 Pimpin' Ain't EasyBia made a big move over the past several days, I'm guessing because of Perry and/or Bryant.
Sinrman
Footballguy
That's great stuff. Thanks for sharing!I'm good but thanks for asking. I only have 40 more days here and this 15 months will finally be over.
Let me also thank you, and everyone over there for all that you guys do. It's very hard for us back in the States to even fathom what's REALLY going on over there, how hot it is, how dangerous (thankfully a bit less now), etc. I don't have much faith in today's media to portray it the way it really is...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
LOL maybe there is something to these predictions after all!!
Sorry guys I been busy but I will try to get back to these write ups if I can find the time during this last week before the season starts, although that time might be better spent focusing my attention on HTH leagues that I can still possibly do something to improve my situation in. For this league whats done is done!! And thats one of the things I love about it!I will say this as preamble to commenting on Old Milwaukee's draft, I loved the early picks. His 1st 7 picks were very solid imo and many of them were terrific value to outperform other players drafted higher than them. It is his late draft choices that I don't like as much. But I may be overlooking what Fargas, Darling and Josh Reed are capable of. Fargas was a ADP pick that he didn't swap out.Overall I do think Old Milwaukee has one of the better teams and some solid strategy drafting from the middle.
joffer
Footballguy
bumpAdded joffer to the write ups. For those who don't want to look back:
Joffer
1.05 Colts QB - Solid lock for 4000+ yards and 30 TD since the year 2000. Playoffs in the bag.
18.12 Atlanta QB - Not bad for the last round considering the weapons they have and likelihood that they will be playing catch up.
Solid production from Manning (as long as he is healthy.. Which he always has been) is one of the surest things in football. Ryan has played decently for a rookie and has weapons to work with. Not bad for the last pick of the draft. Grade lower than Anarchy’s just because Peyton is not Brady. Grade A-
2.12 Larry Johnson - Will get a lot of action. But the Oline is not any better than last year. LJ needs to stay healthy.
3.05 MJD - I actually like MJD slightly better than LJ for this season. I think his touches will increase and this guy is sensational every time he has the ball. Possible playoff team again.
10.12 Maurice Morris - Still locked in RBBC for now. But I think Morris is the better RB than Julius Jones and Morris could be the man and not look back. Great value pick for the 10th round. Doubtful to make playoffs.
14.12 Andre Hall - The other Denver RB for 2008. Great value this late as I expect him to put up some points no matter what and he has a chance to take over as the lead back if something should happen to Young.
I like the value of all of these picks. Joffer takes advantage of what fell to him and gets 2 sure RB performers then follows up with 2 RB later in the draft who will get points and have the upside to get a lot more than people expect from them. Grade B
4.12 Brandon Marshall - Great WR who fell in the draft due to off the field problems and at least a 2 week suspension causing him to miss time.Still as Denvers primary weapon I expect him to catch up quickly with other Wrs once he gets on the field.
5.05 Bobby Engram - Good value pick before he got injured. Now joffer has to deal with his 2 highest Wrs missing time. Doubtful to make playoffs.
7.05 Bernard Berrian - Deep threat WR signed by the Vikings for use on play action. Won’t get as many targets with the Vikings. Good chance of at least one playoff game.
11.05 Antwan Randle El - WR2 and target 3 for the Redskins although he may fit the WCO better than S.Moss does. That and special teams give him some upside. Still don’t expect a lot here. Playoffs are possible.
13.05 Derek Hagan - Starting WR with Pennington for the Dolphins who will likely be playing catch up for some decent garbage points.
16.12 Cortney Taylor - rumored to be Engrams replacement while he is out. We’ll see.
These WR would be a lot better if Marshall and Engram were not going to automatically miss quite a bit of time. I consider these players to be solid but unexciting picks except for Marshall who is a wild card. I would rate these Wr as average or middle of the pack if they were not missing time but I have to downgrade them for that. Grade D+
6.12 LJ Smith - Very active TE when he is healthy, but he has yet to be healthy for a full season. His QB has been injured several seasons in a row now also. There is some upside here but an awful lot of risk.
9.05 Ben Utecht - Primary TE now with Palmer. Bengals have no history of using the TE a lot from their current offense. But maybe that will change.
Not a very strong duo here. They do have enough upside to tread water and stop the bleeding for joffer at the position if LJ and McNabb stay healthy and Utect manages 40 catches. Grade C-
15.05 John Casay - Decent kicker for this late of a pick. Remains to be seen how improved the offense is. Unlikely to add anything for playoffs.
17.05 Taylor Mehlhaff - Not assured to win the job. Great value if his does kicking for the high power Saints offense but drawing zeros all year here if he doesn’t.
I like that joffer waited this late but if Mehlhaff doesn’t win the job he is going to lose over 100 some points to all teams that have 2 starters. Grade D (improves to B if Mehlahaff win the job)
8.12 San Diego Defense - Highest scoring defense in this format last year. High pick to get them but this is one of the few teams worth taking high.
12.12 Philly Defense - This defense is just ok now that many of its stars have gotten old. I would have taken the Saints or Colts with this pick because they are more sure to make the playoffs and they actually have more playmakers.
One top 3 defense and a average one. Both were drafted in the top 16. Grade B
I like what this team has at QB and RB. Unfortunately it doesent have enough at WR or TE to be competitive imo. The injury to Engram really hurts and it was too late in the draft for joffer to try to fix it. I don’t see this team competing this year although I don’t really fault joffers strategy for that. He just got bit by bad luck already. More injuries can even the playing field for him over time. Grade C
Next up Old Milwaukee...
for Brandon Marshall and Courtney Taylorbump 
for picking the wrong Saints PK
Tau837
Footballguy
Having done this for a few years now, I have concluded there are some general rules that contribute to success:
1. You absolutely cannot allow yourself to get shorted at kicker. Every year there are a couple of teams that wait long enough on kickers that they end up with a kicker who loses the starting job or gets cut, which means sacrificing 100+ points. In order to win, you absolutely have to ensure you are not one of those teams giving up the easy points at kicker.
2. In this format, Dodds projects 15 TEs to score more than 150 points in the regular season. Looking at the top 2 TEs for all teams in the league, Dodds' projections have the spread from best to worst as 463 points for the best tandem to 162 points for the worst tandem. That is a huge spread for only 2 positions, larger than at any of the other positions. I think you can win without premium TEs, but IMO it is easier to win by taking advantage of the high scoring this format provides for TEs.
3. It is a mistake to fill the flex position with a RB. 5 teams in this league did that, and those flex players are projected by Dodds for an average of 41.9 points for the regular season. Only one of those 5 teams is projected in the top 8 teams using Dodds' default projections. Meanwhile, the other 11 flex players taken are projected by Dodds for an average of 79.7 points for the regular season, despite the fact that one of those players - Drew Carter - is out for the season and contributes a 0 to that average. Other than Carter, every non RB flex player is projected to outscore every RB flex player.
4. It is a mistake to fill the flex position early. 5 teams filled their flex positions in the first 12 rounds. Only 2 of those 5 teams are projected in the top 8 teams using Dodds' default projections. Ignoring Carter, the other 4 of those flex players are projected by Dodds for an average of 74.6 points in the regular season. The flex players for the 11 teams that filled their flex positions in the last 6 rounds are projected by Dodds for an average of 71.6 points in the regular season. That gap is almost non-existent, and does not account for the points lost by the teams that filled those positions early instead of filling another mandatory position. On top of that, combining #3 above with this point and averaging only those non RB flex players taken in the last 6 rounds, they are projected to average 85.6 points. The point is, the tradeoffs involved in filling a flex position early are not worth it given the WRs and TEs available late.
Another obvious consideration is playoff points. However, I think it is harder to gauge those points - which teams will make the playoffs? how many playoff games will each play? etc. IMO it is hard to do any more in your draft than choosing the likely playoff player when choosing between similar players at a particular draft pick.
I'm sure someone will respond to say that injuries are the biggest factor. While it is true injuries are a huge factor, they are out of our control, so there is nothing we can do about them. But we can use strategies to maximize our chance of success.
1. You absolutely cannot allow yourself to get shorted at kicker. Every year there are a couple of teams that wait long enough on kickers that they end up with a kicker who loses the starting job or gets cut, which means sacrificing 100+ points. In order to win, you absolutely have to ensure you are not one of those teams giving up the easy points at kicker.
2. In this format, Dodds projects 15 TEs to score more than 150 points in the regular season. Looking at the top 2 TEs for all teams in the league, Dodds' projections have the spread from best to worst as 463 points for the best tandem to 162 points for the worst tandem. That is a huge spread for only 2 positions, larger than at any of the other positions. I think you can win without premium TEs, but IMO it is easier to win by taking advantage of the high scoring this format provides for TEs.
3. It is a mistake to fill the flex position with a RB. 5 teams in this league did that, and those flex players are projected by Dodds for an average of 41.9 points for the regular season. Only one of those 5 teams is projected in the top 8 teams using Dodds' default projections. Meanwhile, the other 11 flex players taken are projected by Dodds for an average of 79.7 points for the regular season, despite the fact that one of those players - Drew Carter - is out for the season and contributes a 0 to that average. Other than Carter, every non RB flex player is projected to outscore every RB flex player.
4. It is a mistake to fill the flex position early. 5 teams filled their flex positions in the first 12 rounds. Only 2 of those 5 teams are projected in the top 8 teams using Dodds' default projections. Ignoring Carter, the other 4 of those flex players are projected by Dodds for an average of 74.6 points in the regular season. The flex players for the 11 teams that filled their flex positions in the last 6 rounds are projected by Dodds for an average of 71.6 points in the regular season. That gap is almost non-existent, and does not account for the points lost by the teams that filled those positions early instead of filling another mandatory position. On top of that, combining #3 above with this point and averaging only those non RB flex players taken in the last 6 rounds, they are projected to average 85.6 points. The point is, the tradeoffs involved in filling a flex position early are not worth it given the WRs and TEs available late.
Another obvious consideration is playoff points. However, I think it is harder to gauge those points - which teams will make the playoffs? how many playoff games will each play? etc. IMO it is hard to do any more in your draft than choosing the likely playoff player when choosing between similar players at a particular draft pick.
I'm sure someone will respond to say that injuries are the biggest factor. While it is true injuries are a huge factor, they are out of our control, so there is nothing we can do about them. But we can use strategies to maximize our chance of success.
Last edited by a moderator:
Tau837
Footballguy
Final update before the season (I assume the current Dodds projections are his final projections):2857.4 Just Win Baby2776.1 Biabreakable2756.4 CalBear2743.5 Anarchy992719.9 Duckboy2715.2 radballs2667.7 Old Milwaukee2655.5 Fiddles2642.9 Jiggyonthehut2610.2 There It Is2586.3 nittanylion2581.1 joffer2565.0 Captain Hook2499.4 Bri2416.4 Sinrman2323.5 Pimpin' Ain't EasyBia continues to move up.
Oh right it was Alex Smith. I get those awesome tight ends mixed up. Still think Alex Smith is better than Fasano?
it's part of the fun. If Fasano stunk you'd have let me have it too
Jackson isn't hurt which is what I said might (or likely)happen, reason for drafting him etc.
Tau837
Footballguy
Once again, you are confused. I told you Alex Smith was a better flex pick than Leonard, especially 3 rounds later - see post 219. And so far I am right. Of course, it's a long season, so I'd typically wait at least several weeks to revisit it.And I made fun of you for saying that you wouldn't consider Smith in a 25 round draft even though you drafted Gaines. See post 228.If you're going to come in and gloat about something, at least get it right.By the way, how's that Cincy team QB looking?Oh right it was Alex Smith. I get those awesome tight ends mixed up. Still think Alex Smith is better than Fasano?it's part of the fun. If Fasano stunk you'd have let me have it tooJackson isn't hurt which is what I said might (or likely)happen, reason for drafting him etc.
Awesome backtracking, maneuverring, sliding around the turns and trying to make it come across like you didn't rip the Fasano pick and praise Smith. You should run for presidentOnce again, you are confused. I told you Alex Smith was a better flex pick than Leonard, especially 3 rounds later - see post 219. And so far I am right. Of course, it's a long season, so I'd typically wait at least several weeks to revisit it.And I made fun of you for saying that you wouldn't consider Smith in a 25 round draft even though you drafted Gaines. See post 228.If you're going to come in and gloat about something, at least get it right.By the way, how's that Cincy team QB looking?Oh right it was Alex Smith. I get those awesome tight ends mixed up. Still think Alex Smith is better than Fasano?it's part of the fun. If Fasano stunk you'd have let me have it tooJackson isn't hurt which is what I said might (or likely)happen, reason for drafting him etc.
Tau837
Footballguy
And you should work on reading comprehension, as we have seen throughout this thread. I mean, I even cited the posts. It's all here in black and white.I criticized you for the following:1. Taking the Cincy team QB at 2.14.2. Discussing your picks and your team as if you did not understand the scoring system.3. Taking Harrison at 5.3.4. Taking Fasano and Gaines as your two mandatory TEs. If Fasano goes on to have a great season, then I will be proven at least partly wrong on that particular criticism.5. Taking Leonard in the 14th as your flex player. I cited Smith as an example of a better flex player taken in the 17th.So far, I think my overall commentary on your team looks pretty good, though as I already indicated, I think it takes at least several weeks to get a good feel on things.
Edited to make this readable since the number of quotes has been restricted since it was posted.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I didn't expect Marshall to catch up that quickly!!bumpAdded joffer to the write ups. For those who don't want to look back:
Joffer
1.05 Colts QB - Solid lock for 4000+ yards and 30 TD since the year 2000. Playoffs in the bag.
18.12 Atlanta QB - Not bad for the last round considering the weapons they have and likelihood that they will be playing catch up.
Solid production from Manning (as long as he is healthy.. Which he always has been) is one of the surest things in football. Ryan has played decently for a rookie and has weapons to work with. Not bad for the last pick of the draft. Grade lower than Anarchy’s just because Peyton is not Brady. Grade A-
2.12 Larry Johnson - Will get a lot of action. But the Oline is not any better than last year. LJ needs to stay healthy.
3.05 MJD - I actually like MJD slightly better than LJ for this season. I think his touches will increase and this guy is sensational every time he has the ball. Possible playoff team again.
10.12 Maurice Morris - Still locked in RBBC for now. But I think Morris is the better RB than Julius Jones and Morris could be the man and not look back. Great value pick for the 10th round. Doubtful to make playoffs.
14.12 Andre Hall - The other Denver RB for 2008. Great value this late as I expect him to put up some points no matter what and he has a chance to take over as the lead back if something should happen to Young.
I like the value of all of these picks. Joffer takes advantage of what fell to him and gets 2 sure RB performers then follows up with 2 RB later in the draft who will get points and have the upside to get a lot more than people expect from them. Grade B
4.12 Brandon Marshall - Great WR who fell in the draft due to off the field problems and at least a 2 week suspension causing him to miss time.Still as Denvers primary weapon I expect him to catch up quickly with other Wrs once he gets on the field.
5.05 Bobby Engram - Good value pick before he got injured. Now joffer has to deal with his 2 highest Wrs missing time. Doubtful to make playoffs.
7.05 Bernard Berrian - Deep threat WR signed by the Vikings for use on play action. Won’t get as many targets with the Vikings. Good chance of at least one playoff game.
11.05 Antwan Randle El - WR2 and target 3 for the Redskins although he may fit the WCO better than S.Moss does. That and special teams give him some upside. Still don’t expect a lot here. Playoffs are possible.
13.05 Derek Hagan - Starting WR with Pennington for the Dolphins who will likely be playing catch up for some decent garbage points.
16.12 Cortney Taylor - rumored to be Engrams replacement while he is out. We’ll see.
These WR would be a lot better if Marshall and Engram were not going to automatically miss quite a bit of time. I consider these players to be solid but unexciting picks except for Marshall who is a wild card. I would rate these Wr as average or middle of the pack if they were not missing time but I have to downgrade them for that. Grade D+
6.12 LJ Smith - Very active TE when he is healthy, but he has yet to be healthy for a full season. His QB has been injured several seasons in a row now also. There is some upside here but an awful lot of risk.
9.05 Ben Utecht - Primary TE now with Palmer. Bengals have no history of using the TE a lot from their current offense. But maybe that will change.
Not a very strong duo here. They do have enough upside to tread water and stop the bleeding for joffer at the position if LJ and McNabb stay healthy and Utect manages 40 catches. Grade C-
15.05 John Casay - Decent kicker for this late of a pick. Remains to be seen how improved the offense is. Unlikely to add anything for playoffs.
17.05 Taylor Mehlhaff - Not assured to win the job. Great value if his does kicking for the high power Saints offense but drawing zeros all year here if he doesn’t.
I like that joffer waited this late but if Mehlhaff doesn’t win the job he is going to lose over 100 some points to all teams that have 2 starters. Grade D (improves to B if Mehlahaff win the job)
8.12 San Diego Defense - Highest scoring defense in this format last year. High pick to get them but this is one of the few teams worth taking high.
12.12 Philly Defense - This defense is just ok now that many of its stars have gotten old. I would have taken the Saints or Colts with this pick because they are more sure to make the playoffs and they actually have more playmakers.
One top 3 defense and a average one. Both were drafted in the top 16. Grade B
I like what this team has at QB and RB. Unfortunately it doesent have enough at WR or TE to be competitive imo. The injury to Engram really hurts and it was too late in the draft for joffer to try to fix it. I don’t see this team competing this year although I don’t really fault joffers strategy for that. He just got bit by bad luck already. More injuries can even the playing field for him over time. Grade C
Next up Old Milwaukee...
for Brandon Marshall and Courtney Taylorbump
for picking the wrong Saints PK
Same guy almost cost me the title in 3 last year too; maybe next year I'll learn.
CalBear
Footballguy
Philosophical question which doesn't matter in league 2 because I have them both: When Ronnie Brown lines up at QB and throws a TD, does the score go to Brown or to the TMQB? In this case it went to Brown, but I think it should go to the TMQB; he is playing QB for that play.
Good to see Brown come alive, that will help pull me up the ranks. Hopefully I'll get Branch and Nugent back soon.
Good to see Brown come alive, that will help pull me up the ranks. Hopefully I'll get Branch and Nugent back soon.
The single wing offense has plenty of variations like this wildcat and wildhog one. The basic premise of the single wing is that the ball is snapped to a "non-quarterback" so TMQB shouldn't get any points.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I wondered this too, but I'm guessing that MFL only scores players actually designated on NFL rosters as QBs. Technically, he was not under center (if that matters). I also think that points would not count as TMQB if a punter or kicker threw a TD pass.
Tau837
Footballguy
Bri said:
My comments and the DD projections I posted were based on a full season, not 3 weeks. We'll see.My team has definitely started off poorly though. Brady's injury has crushed Moss's value thus far, and my TEs are not producing. Rudi Johnson signing in Detroit has also hurt, since I have Kevin Smith. Plenty of time to turn it around, though.
CalBear
Footballguy
Interesting factoid: Duckboy is running away with the league right now, despite his RBs being taken in the 5th, 16th, 17th, and 18th rounds. He went TE-WR-TE-WR-RB-WR-WR.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
And you should work on reading comprehension, as we have seen throughout this thread. I mean, I even cited the posts. It's all here in black and white.I criticized you for the following:1. Taking the Cincy team QB at 2.14.2. Discussing your picks and your team as if you did not understand the scoring system.3. Taking Harrison at 5.3.4. Taking Fasano and Gaines as your two mandatory TEs. If Fasano goes on to have a great season, then I will be proven at least partly wrong on that particular criticism.5. Taking Leonard in the 14th as your flex player. I cited Smith as an example of a better flex player taken in the 17th.So far, I think my overall commentary on your team looks pretty good, though as I already indicated, I think it takes at least several weeks to get a good feel on things.Awesome backtracking, maneuverring, sliding around the turns and trying to make it come across like you didn't rip the Fasano pick and praise Smith. You should run for presidentOnce again, you are confused. I told you Alex Smith was a better flex pick than Leonard, especially 3 rounds later - see post 219. And so far I am right. Of course, it's a long season, so I'd typically wait at least several weeks to revisit it.And I made fun of you for saying that you wouldn't consider Smith in a 25 round draft even though you drafted Gaines. See post 228.If you're going to come in and gloat about something, at least get it right.By the way, how's that Cincy team QB looking?Oh right it was Alex Smith. I get those awesome tight ends mixed up. Still think Alex Smith is better than Fasano?it's part of the fun. If Fasano stunk you'd have let me have it tooJackson isn't hurt which is what I said might (or likely)happen, reason for drafting him etc.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He certainly has had a very strong start. The strategy he employed was using a safe route in that early pick investment was in WR and TE. The non-guarunteed positions that get a benifit from the PPR. His high draft position did help him to get more solid picks from these positions also before they were all picked over.That being said it is still early and those positions scoring tend to have a higher level of variance compared to RBs and QBs. Also as he mentioned he has not had any players on bye yet. There was a lot of talent with playoff potential that rested in week 4.
Definitly a interesting conversation and worth tracking to see which strat/philosophy actually holds up in the end.
CalBear
Footballguy
WRs do not have a higher level of variance compared to RBs. I didn't bother to study TEs, but I expect the finding would be just as strong or stronger; a TE who scores 200 points on the year will be equally as reliable as an RB who scores 200 points on the year.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/07guest_holub1.php
Duckboy managed to get QBs ranked #10 and #13; they're second-tier, but less than 40 points away from #1. Witten is more than 40 points ahead of the #2 TE.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Interesting. I am not clear on if this study uses PPR or not? As that would level the variance between the positions more I think. I normaly play non-PPR where my observations (which could be incorrect) have been steadier production from RB than WR due to touches vs. targets being in favor of RB.Another thing about this variance study. The higher spiking for RB may have to do with the more common multiple TD games. This favorable variance would still show up in the deviation. Also RB tend to be injured more often and miss games which would again contribute to the deviation. And also the WRs used in the study was broken in tiers of the high scorers. WR performance is a bit harder to predict preseason than RB/QB who have more defined roles, but the study just takes all of the best and plots them.
Here is how WR have scored so far this year:
1. 8. Jennings, Greg GBP WR 103.90 14.10 22.70 19.50 28.90 18.70 Jiggyonthehut 8 2. 10. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 101.70 12.10 21.30 23.90 20.20 24.20 Biabreakable 7 3. 11. Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 93.60 16.20 38.00 11.50 27.90 Duckboy (O) 7 4. 12. Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 93.20 40.60 27.50 19.60 5.50 joffer 8 5. 14. Moss, Santana WAS WR 89.80 14.70 32.10 20.50 22.50 0.00 Duckboy 10 6. 21. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 84.10 7.40 5.60 32.60 11.00 27.50 nittanylion 10 7. 23. Owens, Terrell DAL WR 84.00 19.70 23.90 3.70 21.20 15.50 radballs 10 8. 24. White, Roddy ATL WR 83.60 7.40 10.10 22.90 16.00 27.20 Fiddles (Q) 7 9. 30. Ward, Hines PIT WR 79.60 25.60 16.90 7.40 7.70 22.00 radballs 6 10. 33. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 78.00 24.60 20.30 10.40 B 22.70 nittanylion 4 11. 35. Royal, Eddie DEN WR 77.60 30.50 16.70 5.70 19.40 5.30 Sinrman (Q) 8 12. 37. Evans, Lee BUF WR 75.40 14.20 11.70 10.50 18.80 20.20 nittanylion 6 13. 39. Muhammad, Muhsin CAR WR 72.80 11.60 10.90 5.50 28.70 16.10 Duckboy 9 14. 41. Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 71.40 15.90 15.00 14.30 15.50 10.70 Fiddles 6 15. 49. Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR 67.70 1.50 10.20 19.50 36.50 B Fiddles (Q) 5 16. 50. Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 67.40 16.60 17.00 9.10 21.60 3.10 Captain Hook 7 17. 55. Bruce, Isaac SFO WR 65.50 0.00 19.30 9.90 16.40 19.90 Pimpin' Ain't Easy 9 18. 61. Chambers, Chris SDC WR 63.70 11.40 24.30 9.70 6.20 12.10 Anarchy99 (D) 9 19. 66. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 61.00 21.20 B 4.90 6.80 28.10 Just Win Baby 2 20. 70. Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR 60.30 17.00 3.00 17.60 22.70 B Duckboy 5 21. 71. Johnson, Calvin DET WR 60.20 17.70 30.90 8.00 B 3.60 Biabreakable (Q) 4 22. 73. Hilliard, Ike TBB WR 59.30 16.50 8.10 17.70 4.10 12.90 Free Agent 10 23. 79. Moore, Lance NOS WR 57.40 3.70 1.70 14.80 29.10 8.10 Free Agent 9 24. 81. Moss, Randy NEP WR 56.60 23.60 4.20 6.50 B 22.30 Just Win Baby 4 25. 82. Randle El, Antwaan WAS WR 56.56 14.30 9.30 5.74 14.10 13.12 joffer 10 26. 85. Driver, Donald GBP WR 55.80 7.80 18.20 11.60 1.80 16.40 CalBear 8 27. 88. Henderson, Devery NOS WR 54.40 15.40 2.60 6.20 9.10 21.10 Free Agent 9 28. 92. Welker, Wes NEP WR 54.00 11.10 14.20 13.40 B 15.30 Anarchy99 4 29. 93. Jones, Matt JAC WR 53.80 14.00 10.00 7.20 18.10 4.50 Free Agent 7 30. 94. Berrian, Bernard MIN WR 53.50 6.80 0.00 10.90 12.80 23.00 joffer (Q) 84 of the top 30 are free agents (compared to 2 for RB).The top 30 as it is now is not going to be the same group of players at the EOY.
Duckboy has 4 WR in the top 20.
1. 11. Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 93.60 16.20 38.00 11.50 27.90 Duckboy (O) 7
2. 14. Moss, Santana WAS WR 89.80 14.70 32.10 20.50 22.50 0.00 Duckboy 10
3. 39. Muhammad, Muhsin CAR WR 72.80 11.60 10.90 5.50 28.70 16.10 Duckboy 9
4. 70. Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR
I think it is unlikely that Santana Moss and Mushin maintain their lofty status in the long run and will give way to other WRs and positions as the season goes on. Cotchery is an example of a WR on Duckboys team (there are many other on other teams) that I expect to catch up with Moss and Mushin and probably overtake them.
So while its great to have a strong start, my main point and I think DB would agree with me is that its a long season ahead and too soon to draw conclushions on what strategy is more viable than another. Although I do see your points and I do consider DB's draft to be a safe path to victory.
Yeah, Moss will probably get hurt. Muhsin is interesting because teams just can't switch coverage away from Steve Smith to pay enough attention to Muhsin. I agree his #s will go down but it looks like he's going to have a far better year than expected.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have sluffed the TE position in previous drafts in this format before. Essentialy doing the same thing that you did. This was not really be design but because of the flow of the draft and how I reacted to it. Either last year or the year before there were something like 6 or more TE drafted in the 1st round! One team drafted TE with his 1st 3 picks IIRC. And as it turned out most of them were solid picks.That does not mean that you cannot pluck a solid sleeper TE to help you not get crushed at he position. But the chances of doing so and the risk you take on for the reward you get at other picks in most cases will not be a winning strategy.That is not to say that there are not many different paths to victory in this format, there are. But as Calbear and I are discussing (and I agree with Calbear more than it might seem) value due to the PPR is very much slanted towards the TE and WR positions. Of course figuring out who those WR and TE will be (besides the obvious ones) is the million $$ question. And how solid your projections are compared to anothers is often what makes the difference besides of course the biggest killer which is injuries.
I grabbed those two TEs in several leagues and it's worked well. Without a waiver wire in this, it's a different story altogether. As you know, in redraft, Gaines is a gone in a couple clicks of the mouse. Stuck here though.I never thought Gaines was this terrific athlete with all this talent(like Bryant Johnson or Brandon Lloyd may be to some) that doesn't put it to use on the field. I thought I pegged an overachiever. If ya ever do get to see Gaines and he actually catches a pass, watch him just plow right into whomever is trying to tackle him. It's a fun collision. I think I called him something like an OL running with a fumble, still think that's a good comparison. In theory, that probably would wear down a D if some OL kept barrelling into them. However, their lack of athleticism is probably why they're in blocking and not doing that. Oh well, been wrong before, I'll be wrong again. It was a fun pick and discussion nonetheless.
In preseason, I was sure Brian Leonard would get some time as a starter or significant contributor. It was Pittman and Minor last week as Jackson sat. Leonard on IR..... 
BTW in 06, he looked OK as a rook runner, both bad and good at times, but super useful that he could play FB too. I thought he'd get me some little stats each week subbing too-few carries, maybe couple catches.
BTW in 06, he looked OK as a rook runner, both bad and good at times, but super useful that he could play FB too. I thought he'd get me some little stats each week subbing too-few carries, maybe couple catches.
Jackson, Pittman, and Minor all hurting to some degree.....geeshIn preseason, I was sure Brian Leonard would get some time as a starter or significant contributor. It was Pittman and Minor last week as Jackson sat. Leonard on IR.....
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The pack is starting to tighten up at the top.
Tau837
Footballguy
With 10 weeks and all bye weeks down, it's a good time for a midseason review.
Scored 409.1 points last year and was the #2 scorer. Wasn't expecting a repeat but thought 350 points was possible. Instead, he has only 125.9 points in 9 games, thanks to Brady's injury. Hopefully there is still potential for him to pick it up down the stretch. Playoff points almost certain.
Great pick, #2 WR and #10 overall scorer so far. No playoff points here.
I still think taking TEs early is the right strategy... if you pick the right TEs... which I obviously did not. Bad pick - only TE #26 so far. Hopefully his big game this past week indicates some potential to pick it up down the stretch. Playoff points possible.
Bad pick, but at the time of the pick Hasselbeck was not injured, nor was Burleson, Engram, or any of the other WRs that got hurt later. Definitely some bad luck there, but still a bad pick in retrospect. Should have waited later on QB. Obviously no playoff points.
Even worse than Heap so far - TE #30 so far. Ugh. Team will make the playoffs, but does it matter?
Great pick - #3 team QB and overall scorer so far. Decent chance at playoff points, which would be very helpful, given how many points Cutler is typically good for... but as a Chargers fan, I hope they fail to win the division, which would mean missing the playoffs.
Solid pick - #23 RB so far, and that is despite losing points to Rudi early after his unexpected signing... averaging 12 ppg over the past 4 weeks, so hopefully he'll score some points down the stretch. No playoff points, obviously.
Only the #50 RB so far, thanks to missing 3 games to injury. Before that he was looking solid, and he should be back this week... so hopefully he'll score some points down the stretch, and he has a good chance at playoff points.
Not a good pick... Defense #10 so far. And the remaining schedule doesn't look particularly favorable. Playoff points possible.
Tau837
Footballguy
Continuing:
Not a good pick, however he is WR #66 so far despite missing 3 games. It hasn't helped so far that Tennessee is running so well... hopefully teams will start stacking the box, and that will lead to more points for Gage down the stretch. His team will be in the playoffs, so if he is healthy, he should get some points there.
Terrible pick - WR #106 so far, with a measly 25.4 points. I obviously misjudged Muhammad. Hackett did miss a few games due to injury, so it's possible he'll put up some minimal points going forward... but it will probably take an injury to Smith or Muhammad for him to provide much value down the stretch. Team will probably be in the playoffs, but will it matter?
Terrible pick - #30 K so far. Definitely did not foresee the demise of the Colts offense, nor the likelihood that the Colts will miss the playoffs.
Disappointing pick - surprisingly, despite the success of the Chargers' offense, he is only the #18 K so far. At least playoff points are still possible.
Excellent pick here - #44 WR so far, and has picked it up in recent weeks along with Ryan, so he could move up down the stretch. And playoff points are definitely possible.
Horrible pick. Denver is the #31 defense... Any points I get from them are gravy. Playoff points possible.
This looked like the pick of the draft before he got hurt. As it is, he is the #38 RB so far, and hopefully he'll be back soon. He has already easily exceeded my hope for 50 points, and he'll get playoff points if he is healthy.
At least I got one TE right. He is the #23 TE so far, and has helped offset the Crumpler/Heap picks a bit. Decent chance at playoff points.
Very good pick for this point in the draft - he already has 48.7 points, so he will exceed my initial expectations. Playoff points very possible.
Well, DD has been off so far. My team is 6th right now, but 287 points out of first...However, a lot of my players have been affected by injury (Moss, Hasselbeck, Jones, Gage, Hackett, Morris), and most of them should be back or have their situations improve down the stretch. And almost all of my players are still in the hunt for playoff points. I'm reasonably optimistic at this point.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
JWB -
This just in. Everybody gets affected by injuries.
Good luck! And keep hope alive.
This just in. Everybody gets affected by injuries.
Good luck! And keep hope alive.
Tau837
Footballguy
Of course. In a league like this, at least a quarter of the teams are probably eliminated from contention by injuries independent of their drafts. That doesn't change what I posted about my team.JWB -This just in. Everybody gets affected by injuries.Good luck! And keep hope alive.
CalBear
Footballguy
Except Fiddles, who still has ever player in the lineup producing. Duckboy's only missing one. That's a big part of winning these leagues, getting production from all your players.I'm annoyed that I lost Nugent and that they appear to be keeping him out even though he's healthy now. His production alone would have put me into the top 6--and he's a freaking kicker, what's he doing getting injured?But it mostly looks like five teams with a shot at this point, and then a whole lot of parity after that.JWB -This just in. Everybody gets affected by injuries.
