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The Case Against Global-Warming Skepticism (1 Viewer)

DrJ, on 18 May 2015 - 8:45 PM, said:
timschochet, on 18 May 2015 - 8:34 PM, said:
DrJ, on 18 May 2015 - 8:29 PM, said:DrJ, on 18 May 2015 - 8:29 PM, said:Does tim ever tire of repeating the same crap again and again?
Do you?
Yes, I get very tired of you repeating the same crap again and again. Hence the question.
Well I don't know. This is a thread about people who deny global warming. I admit to spending time arguing with those people, as I regard global warming to be a very serious concern. I'm certainly not the only one. If the subject matter doesn't interest you, why are you in the thread at all?

 
Haven't we already used up a large percentage of the Earth's easily accessible fossil fuel reserves?

It seems to me that price of fossil fuels will only go up due to supply/demand while technology will increase the efficiency of renewable energy and bring the price down.
This is inevitably correct. But the transition could take 30-40 years (less if we're lucky) and there may be a lot of suffering in between.
Let's assume that warming continues at the current rate for the next 50 years - that's 1° C (3° F).

You guys don't think we will be using non-carbon based fuel by then?
 
No no, there couldn't possibly be any consequences from massive clear cutting removing land based carbon sinks combined with emitting millions of years of sequestered CO2 into the atmosphere in the span of about 100 years.
It's all part of the natural order of things. The climate has been changing for billions of years, don't you know.
There's no question that humans are increasing the amount of CO2 in air, right now at a rate of ~2 ppm/year.

I also have no question that higher CO2 levels without increase global temperatures. My disagreement is with the degree of temperature increase.

In the link attacking Dr. Happer it said this:

Happer then throws in a few classical straw man attacks such as:



"CO
2
levels have increased from about 280
ppm
to 390
ppm
over the past 150 years or so, and the earth has warmed by about 0.8 degree Celsius during that time. Therefore the warming is due to CO
2
. But correlation is not causation. Roosters crow every morning at sunrise, but that does not mean the rooster caused the sun to rise. The sun will still rise on Monday if you decide to have the rooster for Sunday dinner."


This would, of course, be a perfectly valid counter-argument to would-be fallacious reasoning, yet it isn't the reasoning any real scientist uses, and is therefore a smokescreen.
While Happer acknowledges that correlation is not causation, he does admit that temperatures did increase by 0.8 C at the same time CO2 increased by 110 ppm.

However, let's assume that there is causation. This is where the alarmist global warming argument falls apart - if CO2 rises from the current 400 ppm to 500 ppm we should expect an increase of about 1 degree C, not the claims of 2-3 degrees C.
 
jon_mx said:
If you really care about Climate Change, move to China and vote for politicians who can do something about it. The US and Europe are already cutting back emissions, but China's output will dwarf the rest of the world in the coming decades. But let's pat Obama on the back for doing something about it and agreeing with China to let their out of control emissions to grow endlessly.

The stupidity of what goes on with these agreements and cap and trade nonsenses is unbelievable.
jon_mx is inadvertently right, China is the place to be for renewables as it is the largest investor in the world by a wide margin in renewable energy...

Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8209e816-97de-11e4-b4be-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3aZDwinYF

Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2014/06/17/china-leads-in-renewable-investment-again/

Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-09/clean-energy-investment-jumps-16-on-china-s-support-for-solar

 
Thank you.Hey jon, are you reading this? I've been telling you for months that China is making a very serious effort, and yet you keep repeating the same old tired nonsense. Ready now to admit that you were incorrect?
A four-month trend that just happens to coincide with their slowing economy :lmao:
They invested almost $90 bn in renewable energy in 2014, vs 51 for the US

 
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jon_mx said:
If you really care about Climate Change, move to China and vote for politicians who can do something about it. The US and Europe are already cutting back emissions, but China's output will dwarf the rest of the world in the coming decades. But let's pat Obama on the back for doing something about it and agreeing with China to let their out of control emissions to grow endlessly.

The stupidity of what goes on with these agreements and cap and trade nonsenses is unbelievable.
jon_mx is inadvertently right, China is the place to be for renewables as it is the largest investor in the world by a wide margin in renewable energy...

Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8209e816-97de-11e4-b4be-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3aZDwinYF

Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2014/06/17/china-leads-in-renewable-investment-again/

Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-09/clean-energy-investment-jumps-16-on-china-s-support-for-solar
China is the place where there is the most growth in the energy sector. They are both the biggest investor in renewable energy and the biggest investor in carbon based energy. China and India are the places with by far the most opportunity to invest and do something about getting greenhouse gases under control.

 
jon_mx said:
If you really care about Climate Change, move to China and vote for politicians who can do something about it. The US and Europe are already cutting back emissions, but China's output will dwarf the rest of the world in the coming decades. But let's pat Obama on the back for doing something about it and agreeing with China to let their out of control emissions to grow endlessly.

The stupidity of what goes on with these agreements and cap and trade nonsenses is unbelievable.
jon_mx is inadvertently right, China is the place to be for renewables as it is the largest investor in the world by a wide margin in renewable energy...Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8209e816-97de-11e4-b4be-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3aZDwinYF

Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2014/06/17/china-leads-in-renewable-investment-again/

Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-09/clean-energy-investment-jumps-16-on-china-s-support-for-solar
China is the place where there is the most growth in the energy sector. They are both the biggest investor in renewable energy and the biggest investor in carbon based energy. China and India are the places with by far the most opportunity to invest and do something about getting greenhouse gases under control.
Which makes sense, given the size of their populations and the economic growth rates they hope to sustain in order to bring pull the mass populations out of poverty.

 
While we are all busy patting China on the back for investment in Green Energy:

- 87% of the growth in global coal consumption in the years 2003 to 2013 came in China alone.

- China now consumes just over half of the world’s coal.

- China laying down more concrete in the last three years than America did in the last century

So yes, China is making investments in Green Energy, but China is the biggest consumer of energy and is where the growth is occurring. When you look at just one piece of the puzzle it does not show the whole picture. It is not because of some great effort by China to be green, it is because China is growing like mad and will continue to do so. They invest more in ALL types of energy.

 
They invested almost $90 bn in renewable energy in 2014, vs 51 for the US
To be fair, I'd like to see these numbers over the past five or ten years. Perhaps cherry-picking, but I think such longer-term numbers would show that China had been very late to the party and is in catch-up mode by 2014.

Still, better late than never,.

 
No argument there. But the other side refuses to admit that a problem even exists. So what choice is there?
Non-governmental solutions. The climate-change isues of the 21st century (such as we understand them) will be overcome by science and engineering, not by government.
I hope you're right. But looking back at our history, both the Manhattan Project and the space program required huge government investment and involvement, and I have my doubts this will happen on its own accord. And I just can't accept inaction and voting for a political party that denies the existence of the problem while waiting around for the private sector to solve it.
 
I agree. We should be looking to nuclear natural gas and emerging tech.

We really missed the boat on nuclear. Solar and wind are not big sweeping answers under current tech...

 
I agree. We should be looking to nuclear natural gas and emerging tech.

We really missed the boat on nuclear. Solar and wind are not big sweeping answers under current tech...
Im on board with this. But nuclear requires a huge government investment. There's no major politician from either party who has proposed this. If there were I'd seriously consider him.
 
But looking back at our history, both the Manhattan Project and the space program required huge government investment and involvement ...
Here's whats' different: humanity never needed an atomic bomb. Humanity never needed to reach the moon. But humans do need to live in the only world we've got.

Humanity (collectively) will have to adjust to living in a hotter climate for the geological near-term. That will likely mean ceding some land to the sea. It will mean making less arable land today more arable tomorrow. It will eventually mean wholesale revolution in energy procurement and usage in the face of dwindling fossil fuel reserves. But all of this takes place over multiple generations of available human innovation. I don't think humanity ever will get to an immediate moment of irresolvable existential crisis due to climate change.

 
Jon_mx: Like a broken clock, only not right as often
Actually, in most cases, when people jump on me for being 'wrong', I was exponentially right.
FYP
My characterization of Ebola undergoing exponential growth was accurate and how it was being modeled by numerous scientific organizations. The fact that massive action by numerous governments and programs and education and isolation of citizens in effected areas were implemented which curbed the growth and got the disease under control does not change how it was growing when my statement was made. Yet one of many times I get criticized for being 'wrong', when the facts support what I stated.

 
Besides, isn't the whole point of cap and trade to spur on the private sector?
That is the point. But the results will be far different. The result will of course drive the cost of carbon-based energy up by design and give incentives to go green if the costs are high enough. But the bean counters will point out to companies how many hundreds of millions they could save by shipping manufacturing overseas and selling all their carbon credits. Estimates put the job loss at over 4 millions jobs and the increase costs of energy will mostly fall on the poor.

 
Besides, isn't the whole point of cap and trade to spur on the private sector?
That is the point. But the results will be far different. The result will of course drive the cost of carbon-based energy up by design and give incentives to go green if the costs are high enough. But the bean counters will point out to companies how many hundreds of millions they could save by shipping manufacturing overseas and selling all their carbon credits. Estimates put the job loss at over 4 millions jobs and the increase costs of energy will mostly fall on the poor.
Yes I've read all the same arguments, from Forbes magazine and other sources. I don't believe them with the fervor that you do. But I'm not sure. I would honestly prefer, to cap and trade, a much bigger government investment in alternative energy sources. But that's going to require Dems as well, since Republicans won't do it.

 
But looking back at our history, both the Manhattan Project and the space program required huge government investment and involvement ...
Here's whats' different: humanity never needed an atomic bomb. Humanity never needed to reach the moon. But humans do need to live in the only world we've got.
I could not disagree more. Humanity desperately needed the atomic bomb to keep aggressive, expansionist communism in check during the 20th century and atomic energy along with the moon shot to help spur scientific development. The only way humanity is ever going to break the seemingly never ending cycle of civilizational growth, apogee, decadence/corruption, devolution, and subsequent rebirth is to get the heck off this planet. One of the biggest problems we now face as a species is the lack of any frontier in which to expand. Instead of encouraging this route though we have now devolved into the bureaucratic mentality of "fixed pie" resource allocation and managed decline.

And that is what the "climate change" movement is really all about.

 
Besides, isn't the whole point of cap and trade to spur on the private sector?
That is the point. But the results will be far different. The result will of course drive the cost of carbon-based energy up by design and give incentives to go green if the costs are high enough. But the bean counters will point out to companies how many hundreds of millions they could save by shipping manufacturing overseas and selling all their carbon credits. Estimates put the job loss at over 4 millions jobs and the increase costs of energy will mostly fall on the poor.
Yes I've read all the same arguments, from Forbes magazine and other sources. I don't believe them with the fervor that you do. But I'm not sure.I would honestly prefer, to cap and trade, a much bigger government investment in alternative energy sources. But that's going to require Dems as well, since Republicans won't do it.
Dems will not support that. They will see that type of investment as corporate welfare and even worse in their eyes, a program to pay the polluter.

 
Thank you.Hey jon, are you reading this? I've been telling you for months that China is making a very serious effort, and yet you keep repeating the same old tired nonsense. Ready now to admit that you were incorrect?
A four-month trend that just happens to coincide with their slowing economy :lmao:
They invested almost $90 bn in renewable energy in 2014, vs 51 for the US
Wouldn't that be obvious? That want energy independence as well and they have a ton of catching up to do on the investment front. They don't want to be importing oil and coal.

I imagine they also have more nuclear investment.

 
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Jon_mx: Like a broken clock, only not right as often
Actually, in most cases, when people jump on me for being 'wrong', I was exponentially right.
FYP
My characterization of Ebola undergoing exponential growth was accurate and how it was being modeled by numerous scientific organizations. The fact that massive action by numerous governments and programs and education and isolation of citizens in effected areas were implemented which curbed the growth and got the disease under control does not change how it was growing when my statement was made. Yet one of many times I get criticized for being 'wrong', when the facts support what I stated.
IMO you using 'models' to spread fear was no different than GW alarmists.

 
Jon_mx: Like a broken clock, only not right as often
Actually, in most cases, when people jump on me for being 'wrong', I was exponentially right.
FYP
My characterization of Ebola undergoing exponential growth was accurate and how it was being modeled by numerous scientific organizations. The fact that massive action by numerous governments and programs and education and isolation of citizens in effected areas were implemented which curbed the growth and got the disease under control does not change how it was growing when my statement was made. Yet one of many times I get criticized for being 'wrong', when the facts support what I stated.
IMO you using 'models' to spread fear was no different than GW alarmists.
Well actually there's a rather big difference...
 
Jon_mx: Like a broken clock, only not right as often
Actually, in most cases, when people jump on me for being 'wrong', I was exponentially right.
FYP
My characterization of Ebola undergoing exponential growth was accurate and how it was being modeled by numerous scientific organizations. The fact that massive action by numerous governments and programs and education and isolation of citizens in effected areas were implemented which curbed the growth and got the disease under control does not change how it was growing when my statement was made. Yet one of many times I get criticized for being 'wrong', when the facts support what I stated.
IMO you using 'models' to spread fear was no different than GW alarmists.
Well actually there's a rather big difference...
Yep. How disease spread is actually a much better understood phenomenon and have a well proven track record. Because action was taken which changed the outcome does not mean the models were inaccurate if that preventative action was not taken. The growth of the disease did track very well to the exponential growth model in the early months.

 
Jon_mx: Like a broken clock, only not right as often
Actually, in most cases, when people jump on me for being 'wrong', I was exponentially right.
FYP
My characterization of Ebola undergoing exponential growth was accurate and how it was being modeled by numerous scientific organizations. The fact that massive action by numerous governments and programs and education and isolation of citizens in effected areas were implemented which curbed the growth and got the disease under control does not change how it was growing when my statement was made. Yet one of many times I get criticized for being 'wrong', when the facts support what I stated.
The millions of Africans currently dying in the continent wide epidemic attests to the veracity of your projections

 
Jon_mx: Like a broken clock, only not right as often
Actually, in most cases, when people jump on me for being 'wrong', I was exponentially right.
FYP
My characterization of Ebola undergoing exponential growth was accurate and how it was being modeled by numerous scientific organizations. The fact that massive action by numerous governments and programs and education and isolation of citizens in effected areas were implemented which curbed the growth and got the disease under control does not change how it was growing when my statement was made. Yet one of many times I get criticized for being 'wrong', when the facts support what I stated.
The millions of Africans currently dying in the continent wide epidemic attests to the veracity of your projections
The million or so lives which were saved by being proactive on the problem is a better testament. :thumbup:

 
Jon_mx: Like a broken clock, only not right as often
Actually, in most cases, when people jump on me for being 'wrong', I was exponentially right.
FYP
My characterization of Ebola undergoing exponential growth was accurate and how it was being modeled by numerous scientific organizations. The fact that massive action by numerous governments and programs and education and isolation of citizens in effected areas were implemented which curbed the growth and got the disease under control does not change how it was growing when my statement was made. Yet one of many times I get criticized for being 'wrong', when the facts support what I stated.
The millions of Africans currently dying in the continent wide epidemic attests to the veracity of your projections
The million or so lives which were saved by being proactive on the problem is a better testament. :thumbup:
:yawn:

 
The narrative shift continues:

1. The earth's not getting hotter. In fact it might be getting colder!

Became:

2. It's not getting colder, but global warming has remained flat for a decade.

Became:

3. It's getting warmer, but it's just part of a natural cycle. There's no proof that man has any impact on the climate.

Is becoming:

4. We're probably making the climate hotter, but there's nothing we can do about it.

 
The narrative shift continues:

1. The earth's not getting hotter. In fact it might be getting colder!

Became:

2. It's not getting colder, but global warming has remained flat for a decade.

Became:

3. It's getting warmer, but it's just part of a natural cycle. There's no proof that man has any impact on the climate.

Is becoming:

4. We're probably making the climate hotter, but there's nothing we can do about it.
Well much of the rest of the world is split between

5. #### it, it's too expensive and I won't be able to buy a new Mercedes for my the money I've stolen from society and

6. We should stop ####### up our planet (right now) and hopefully the global increase will be no more than 2C by 2050

 
The narrative shift continues:

1. The earth's not getting hotter. In fact it might be getting colder!

Became:

2. It's not getting colder, but global warming has remained flat for a decade.

Became:

3. It's getting warmer, but it's just part of a natural cycle. There's no proof that man has any impact on the climate.

Is becoming:

4. We're probably making the climate hotter, but there's nothing we can do about it.
Well much of the rest of the world is split between

5. #### it, it's too expensive and I won't be able to buy a new Mercedes for my the money I've stolen from society and

6. We should stop ####### up our planet (right now) and hopefully the global increase will be no more than 2C by 2050
:lmao: :cry: :lmao:

 
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msommer said:
6. We should stop ####### up our planet (right now) and hopefully the global increase will be no more than 2C by 2050
If CO2 rises from the current 400 ppm to 500 ppm (still well below the ideal CO2 concentration for plants) we should expect an increase of about 1 degree C (how much temperatures have increased in the past 50 years), not the claims of 2-3 degrees C.

 
Jon_mx: Like a broken clock, only not right as often
Actually, in most cases, when people jump on me for being 'wrong', I was exponentially right.
FYP
My characterization of Ebola undergoing exponential growth was accurate and how it was being modeled by numerous scientific organizations. The fact that massive action by numerous governments and programs and education and isolation of citizens in effected areas were implemented which curbed the growth and got the disease under control does not change how it was growing when my statement was made. Yet one of many times I get criticized for being 'wrong', when the facts support what I stated.
Other than you saying it wasn't being controlled, it was in their rivers, it was growing to 10000 cases per week and most of those would die, you nailed it.

jon_mx said:
Fennis said:
update. Mukpo is now Ebola free.

Ebola patients treated in US: 8

Patients Infected in Africa: 6

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 5

Patients under treatment: 2

Deceased: 1

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 12.5%

Cured: Ashoka Mukpo (cameraman), Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: Nina Pham (nurse of Duncan); Amber Vinson (nurse of Duncan, CDC gave info was OK to fly with low grade fever)

Deceased: Thomas Duncan
Meanwhile, in West Africa, by December it is expected there will be 10,000 new cases each week. And most of them will likely die.
jon_mx said:
timschochet said:
Jon, you can post how terrible things are in Liberia, and if I lived there I'm certain I'd be somewhat concerned (though not real concerned, because it's still only affecting less than .05% of the population, and difficult to catch).

But that has nothing to do with my argument. When you decide it's a good idea to simply ban ANYONE who is Liberian from coming to this country, not just those who have the disease or who are in direct contact, but ANYONE, you are giving into hysteria. It's not cautious; it's not reasonable. It's an act based on panic, fear, and lazy thinking, and you'll never be able to justify it no matter how hard you try.
:rolleyes: You understand Liberia is not controlling the problem. It is in their rivers. People are not reporting it. People are unknowlingly in contact with people as people are not being cared for. It is impossible for people to know if a person has been in contact. According to WHO it is spreading exponentially. 5,000 cases today could easily be 10,000 in a couple weeks. Even if it is at 0.05% of the population, you let 1,000 in, that makes it about a 50% possibility one of them has the disease. This is not the same as an irrational concerned with someone commuting through Texas. Your analogy is asinine.
 
just assume I posted a link to the latest study that says there really was no "pause" at all.
What I find really amazing is that with all the technology and measurements today (satellites, weather balloons, thousands of weather stations, super computers, etc.), they still have a difficult time accurately characterizing our global temperature, but with a few data points from tree rings/ice cores they are confident they can tell us precisely what the earth's atmosphere was like 1200 years ago. You would think they could collect the current data and come up with an extremely accurate number and stick to it instead of constantly massaging the information. If the data is really that poor, buckets over the side of ships, how in the world is a new manipulation any more accurate? It just seems they finally found a method to match their desired results.

 
What were the models predicting in 2009.........

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.
Even if we buy into this new rate of increase ( 0.086°C per decade), that would be less than 1 degree of warming by 2100 and we are suppose to be talking about settled science here, where they are 90 percent certain it will increase between 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.

 
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Hide the decline becomes hide the pause?

Seriously, this study is interesting in that it shows how difficult it actually is to try to measure global temperature and the level of uncertainty there is in that data...and when your talking a degree per century or two degrees per century, even small methodology decisions in adjusting the data can create very different prognoses when propagated over time....

 
Hide the decline becomes hide the pause?

Seriously, this study is interesting in that it shows how difficult it actually is to try to measure global temperature and the level of uncertainty there is in that data...and when your talking a degree per century or two degrees per century, even small methodology decisions in adjusting the data can create very different prognoses when propagated over time....
If they are having this hard of a time deciding what the global temperature is in 2000 thru 2014 where we have a ton more data which should give us more accuracy and precision, what does that tell us about the confidence we should have about global temperature numbers from 1890? It was not the skeptics numbers showing the pause, but the IPCC's. Now they are changing their numbers and they want to blame skeptics? It is bizarre.

 
One thing we definitely know is true of human psychology is that we're way more likely to accept bad arguments or false statements of fact that support our current beliefs than we are to accept bad arguments or false statements of fact that contradict our current beliefs.

It's not shocking at all that this happens in politics all the time. It's also not shocking that it happens on both sides of the global warming debate since that's become a politicized issue.

The global-warming deniers are on the wrong side of the issue in general, which means that the global-warming accepters are on the right side. But a great many people on the right side are nonetheless guilty of accepting faulty claims supporting their position.

A few examples from this blog post:

Judging Outside Your Expertise

I have just been involved in a lengthy exchange on Facebook over my criticism of the claim that warming on the scale projected by the IPCC for 2100 can be expected to have large net negative consequences. The response I got was that the person I was arguing with was not interested in my arguments. He does not know enough to judge for himself whether the conclusion is true, so prefers to believe what the experts say.

Accepting the views of experts on a question you are not competent to answer for yourself, assuming that you can figure out who they are and what they believe, is often a sensible policy, but one can sometimes do better. Sometimes one can look at arguments and evaluate them not on the basis of the science but of internal evidence, what they themselves say. Here are three examples:

The widely cited 97% figure is based mostly on Cook et. al. 2013, which is webbed. It is often reported as the percentage of climate scientists who believe that humans are the main cause of warming and that warming will have very bad effects. Simply reading the article tells you that the second half is false. The article is about causes of warming and offers no evidence on consequences. Anyone who says it does is either ignorant or dishonest, and other things he says can be evaluated on that basis.

If you read the article carefully you discover that the 97% figure, which is a count of article abstracts not scientists, is the percentage of abstracts which say or imply that humans are *a* cause of warming (“contribute to” in the language of one example). The corresponding figure for humans as the principal cause, which is not given in the article but can be calculated from its webbed data, is 1.6%. That tells you that anyone who reports the 97% figure as the number of articles holding that humans are the main cause of warming is either ignorant or dishonest. One person who has done so, in print, is John Cook, the lead author of the article. John Cook runs skepticalscience.com, which is a major source for arguments for one side of the global warming dispute, so knowing that he is willing to lie in print about his own work is a reason not to believe things on that site without checking them. [My old blog post giving details.]

One of the economists who has been active in estimating consequences of warming is William Nordhaus. He is, among other things, the original source for the 2° limit. A few years ago, he published an article in the New York Review of Books attacking a Wall Street Journal piece that argued that climate was not a catastrophic threat that required an immediate response. In it, he gave his figure for the cost of waiting fifty years instead of taking the optimal steps now—$4.1 trillion dollars—and commented that “Wars have been started over smaller sums.” What he did not mention was that that sum, spread out over the rest of the century and the entire world, came to about one twentieth of one percent of world GNP. He was attacking the WSJ authors for an argument which his own research, as he reported it, supported.

In a recent Facebook exchange on the consequences of AGW for agriculture, someone linked to an EPA piece on the subject. Reading it carefully, I noticed that the positive effects of warming and CO2 fertilization were facts, with numbers: “The yields for some crops, like wheat and soybeans, could increase by 30% or more under a doubling of CO2 concentrations. The yields for other crops, such as corn, exhibit a much smaller response (less than 10% increase).” The negative effects were vague and speculative: “some factors may counteract these potential increases in yield. For example, if temperature exceeds a crop's optimal level or if sufficient water and nutrients are not available, yield increases may be reduced or reversed.” The same pattern held through the article.

A careful reader might also notice that the piece referred to the negative effects of extreme weather without any attempt to distinguish between extreme weather that AGW made more likely (hot summers), less likely (cold winters), or would have an uncertain effect on (droughts, floods, hurricanes). It was reasonably clear that the article was designed to make it sound as though the effects of AGW would be negative without offering any good reason to believe it was true. One telling sentence: “Overall, climate change could make it more difficult to grow crops, raise animals, and catch fish in the same ways and same places as we have done in the past.” With most of a century to adjust, it is quite unlikely that farmers will continue to do everything in the same ways and the same places as in the past.

These are three examples of arguments for one side of the climate controversy by a source taken seriously by supporters of that side. Each can be evaluated on internal evidence, what it itself says, without requiring any expert knowledge of the subject. In each case, doing so gives you good reasons not to trust either the source or the conclusion.

Readers may reasonably suspect that I too am biased. But nothing I have said here depends on your trusting me. In each case, you can look at the evidence and evaluate it for yourself. And all of it is evidence provided by the people whose work I am criticizing.
The problem is that when things are viewed as "my side against your side," as they nearly always are in politics, arguments are treated like soldiers. You have to support the ones on your side no matter how weak they are, and you have to attack the ones on the other side no matter how meritorious. Otherwise, you're kind of a traitor. We should make conscious efforts to guard against this feature of human psychology, IMO.

 
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Agree the 97% number is WAY overused, and rarely used in the right context.
And the misrepresentation is totally unnecessary because even though the paper that the 97% figure came from didn't say anything about humans being a major cause of global warming, my understanding is that there are other lines of evidence suggesting that the number of climate scientists who think that humans are a major cause is indeed greater than 90 percent. That's still a pretty good consensus, so there's no real need to embellish.

 
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