2011 was a year that boasted numerous breakout offensive performances. Clearly there is much debate among the fantasy community as to the legitimacy of these performences. Are they repeatable? Will these numbers regress to the old mean or is there some "new mean" being established here? The New England Patriots however, are to me, a unique case. This post is to break down what makes them different, why it is beneficial to them, and some possible outcomes as to how they run their offense and create fantasy stardom (or bustdom).
2011 Passing Statistics: An outlier or the continuation of an ongoing trend?
One of the more debateable topics this season is that of the multiple 5000 yard passers. This is clearly new ground that we have stepped upon in the football world, as only 2 QBs had EVER thrown for 5000 yards in a season before 3 accomplishing this feat last year (and Eli Manning threw for 4,933 yards). While many would see this as an outlier year, one that is sure to "regress" in some way, I would urge you to look at this post by Butcher Boy:
So now when we look at the teams who had prolific passing offenses last season, there are 4 that jumped off the page: New Orleans, Green Bay, Detroit, and of course New England. These offenses all threw for over 5000 yards and at least 39 TDs, a clear separation from the pack. The first three, in some way shape or form, create a bulk of their offense with aggressive playcalling down the field and spread sets. What makes New England different, is that they do much of their damage in 12 personel.
For those who don't already know, 12 personel simply means that there is 1 RB and 2 TEs on the field (WRs are not mentioned, but they fill in the other 2 spots). While most of the league would seem to be shifting to more sets out of 10 personel (1 RB, 0 TEs, 4 WRs) or 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), New England has managed to produce historic levels of offense out of a very basic set that we would have seen more of 10 years ago. They are the only team that can do this in the entire league because they are the only team with players like Gronkowski and Hernandez. This probably isn't news to any of you. What should matter, is the fact that this gives them less of a chance to "regress" in my opinion in terms of their offensive prowess. In fact, with the addition of Brandon Lloyd, their offense should be better although it remains to be seen if this will reflect directly in their passing yards. Here is the big reason that this set gives them an advantage over the rest of the league without even considering the WRs on the outside:
Opposing defenses facing 12 personel MUST account for the run. With 2 TEs on the field already, it would not take much effort for a QB with the prestige of Tom Brady to audible to a run play, and gash a team all up and down the field on the ground. This is much different from the spread-heavy offenses who show pass on many plays, and would not have the offensive personel on the field to audible to the run with consistent success. What makes NE so effective in this set is that they have the ONLY TE tandem in the league capable of pulling this off while still being an elite passing offense. Gronkowski and Hernandez are matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. So while most teams lining up in 12 do not pose a significant passing mismatch, the Patriots last year had THREE elite passing options while still being in a traditionally run-first formation. See that this creates a unique difference when scheming to play the Patriots as opposed to these other teams. "New" defensive schematics that may trend around the league to slow down these spread attacks would not be nearly as effective against a team like New England. This is why we are seeing teams like Indianapolis try to replicate this in the 2012 draft with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. It is simply a tougher offense to stop IF you have the right players to do it.
Looking Forward: NE in 2012
When we look at the passing trends of the league, as well as the unique personel the Patriots use, I think that we can all agree that New England will repeat as an elite offense. But so what? Most of you probably already figured that. What we care about though is will they throw for 5000 yards? Will Brady throw EVEN MORE TDs? My projection would be yes and yes. Here's why:
The addition of Brandon Lloyd makes the Patriots offense one of the best (if not THE best) the league has ever seen:
That statement is, by itself, quite clearly an opinion. If we break it down though, I see no feasible way the Patriots can be stopped this year if everyone is healthy. Consider that the Patriots now have FOUR elite options in the passing game. When I say elite, I mean that they can beat single covereage with an expected level of consistency higher than other players in the league. Lloyd is one of the leagues best jump ball catchers and vertical threats (Matt Waldman has written extensively on this so see his work if you want a more in depth look). Welker has shown over the years with his route runnning that he cannot be contained in the slot. Gronkowski may be the toughest mismatch in the entire league when you consider his size, speed, and hands from the TE position. Corner are too small, safetys and linebackers are too slow. Hernandez also presents a size/speed mismatch. While he is smaller than Gronkowski, his speed is first class from the TE position. All 4 of these players if left in single coverage for most of the game against an average defender would tear an opposing defense to shreds. Having them all on one team makes them together unstoppable.
Let's do some simple math here. There are only 11 defenders on the field. To double any of these 4 players on a given play would leave only 9 defenders. That would leave the other 3 in single coverage and a 6 man front to rush, cover the backs, etc. That's fairly common situation in the NFL. But we've already stated that to leave one of these guys, let alone 3, in single coverage for an extensive period of time would be football suicide. So say you double 2 of them. That leaves now 7 defenders. Now you cover the other 2 players in single coverage and have 5 players left to rush, cover the backs, etc. That leaves yourself pretty thin up front. On a very basic level, it doesn't make much sense to play man coverage against the Patriots, and at a deeper level, playing a zone would eventually expose yourself to similar matchup problems during the play. This makes NE very difficult to stop, and this is if they are telling you on a given play that they will pass.
Consider now the other side of the coin. Getting back to that 12 personel, the Patriots would still have to be taken as a legitimate run threat. To put personel on the field to defend the pass would expose the defense to getting gashed by the run. To put personel on the field to defend against he run would leave them susceptable to the pass. Any combination thereof would leave them exposed somewhere in some fashion. It is easy to see that it would take a very special combination of scheme and player talent to stop the Patriots offense.
We have just outlined just how unstoppable the Patriots offense can be at a fundamental level. Now I have seen many posts suggesting that NE will throw LESS this year based on McDaniels' history with the Patriots. Keep in mind though, that even in the record breaking 50 TD season for Brady, they did not have this kind of unique talent on the team. This compilation of weapons has NEVER happened in the NFL before. I think that you could make a very reasonable arguement for the Patriots to throw MORE this year. After all, it would make more sense for them to play to their strength. The only reason I could see the Patriots throwing less this year would be if teams 100% sold out against the pass and NE had no choice but to ram it down their throats via the run game.
So in conclusion, I do not feel that the Patriots will be due for a regression in their offensive numbers from last year. They are simply too unique of an offense to slow down. To me, they could approach 640 passing attempts this season. This would provide plenty of targets for those big 4 in the receiving game, eliminating the "too many mouths to feed" theory. I would expect Brady to not only throw for 5000 yards again, but at least 40 TDs as well (especially since Lloyd is just one more elite redzone threat). This would lend to Gronk not dropping off nearly as severely as people would think, Welker still compiling plenty of yardage, Lloyd contending for WR1 status, and Hernandez still finishing in the top 5 for TEs. In fact, here are my current projections for the NE passing game:
Brady: 640 attempts, 8.28 YPA, 5299/46/12 (TDs are admittedly probably a shade high, but I'm all in on NE)
Welker: 152 Targets, 112 REC, 11.1 YPC 1243 yds 6 TDs
Lloyd: 132/73/17/1241/10
Gronk: 130/94/14.2/1335/14
Hern: 119/77/11.9/916/9
Like I said, the TDs are probably high, but if the Patriots can produce that many attempts this season, I think these numbers are not too far off from possible.
I really appreciate those of you who took the time to read this post. Interested to see what the community has to say.
2011 Passing Statistics: An outlier or the continuation of an ongoing trend?
One of the more debateable topics this season is that of the multiple 5000 yard passers. This is clearly new ground that we have stepped upon in the football world, as only 2 QBs had EVER thrown for 5000 yards in a season before 3 accomplishing this feat last year (and Eli Manning threw for 4,933 yards). While many would see this as an outlier year, one that is sure to "regress" in some way, I would urge you to look at this post by Butcher Boy:
It would seem, when looking at this data, that last years passing numbers were more the continuation of an ongoing trend than the start of something new. Certainly, last season saw prolific passing statistics that we had never seen before, but keep in mind that when we talk about 5000 yard passers we are talking about just one benchmark, an arbitrary threshold if you will. It is more beneficial to look at these numbers as a whole than to focus on individual performances with such thresholds if we want to discuss a league-wide trend. I would say that if you look at the data and the way the league is trending, it is not only possible, but LIKELY that there will be multiple QBs exceeding or coming close to 5000 yards passing as the original poster stated. Keep in mind that we have spoken now only as the league as a whole, and not the specific case of the Patriots.The Patriots and the Rise of 12 Personel
So now when we look at the teams who had prolific passing offenses last season, there are 4 that jumped off the page: New Orleans, Green Bay, Detroit, and of course New England. These offenses all threw for over 5000 yards and at least 39 TDs, a clear separation from the pack. The first three, in some way shape or form, create a bulk of their offense with aggressive playcalling down the field and spread sets. What makes New England different, is that they do much of their damage in 12 personel.
For those who don't already know, 12 personel simply means that there is 1 RB and 2 TEs on the field (WRs are not mentioned, but they fill in the other 2 spots). While most of the league would seem to be shifting to more sets out of 10 personel (1 RB, 0 TEs, 4 WRs) or 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), New England has managed to produce historic levels of offense out of a very basic set that we would have seen more of 10 years ago. They are the only team that can do this in the entire league because they are the only team with players like Gronkowski and Hernandez. This probably isn't news to any of you. What should matter, is the fact that this gives them less of a chance to "regress" in my opinion in terms of their offensive prowess. In fact, with the addition of Brandon Lloyd, their offense should be better although it remains to be seen if this will reflect directly in their passing yards. Here is the big reason that this set gives them an advantage over the rest of the league without even considering the WRs on the outside:
Opposing defenses facing 12 personel MUST account for the run. With 2 TEs on the field already, it would not take much effort for a QB with the prestige of Tom Brady to audible to a run play, and gash a team all up and down the field on the ground. This is much different from the spread-heavy offenses who show pass on many plays, and would not have the offensive personel on the field to audible to the run with consistent success. What makes NE so effective in this set is that they have the ONLY TE tandem in the league capable of pulling this off while still being an elite passing offense. Gronkowski and Hernandez are matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. So while most teams lining up in 12 do not pose a significant passing mismatch, the Patriots last year had THREE elite passing options while still being in a traditionally run-first formation. See that this creates a unique difference when scheming to play the Patriots as opposed to these other teams. "New" defensive schematics that may trend around the league to slow down these spread attacks would not be nearly as effective against a team like New England. This is why we are seeing teams like Indianapolis try to replicate this in the 2012 draft with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. It is simply a tougher offense to stop IF you have the right players to do it.
Looking Forward: NE in 2012
When we look at the passing trends of the league, as well as the unique personel the Patriots use, I think that we can all agree that New England will repeat as an elite offense. But so what? Most of you probably already figured that. What we care about though is will they throw for 5000 yards? Will Brady throw EVEN MORE TDs? My projection would be yes and yes. Here's why:
The addition of Brandon Lloyd makes the Patriots offense one of the best (if not THE best) the league has ever seen:
That statement is, by itself, quite clearly an opinion. If we break it down though, I see no feasible way the Patriots can be stopped this year if everyone is healthy. Consider that the Patriots now have FOUR elite options in the passing game. When I say elite, I mean that they can beat single covereage with an expected level of consistency higher than other players in the league. Lloyd is one of the leagues best jump ball catchers and vertical threats (Matt Waldman has written extensively on this so see his work if you want a more in depth look). Welker has shown over the years with his route runnning that he cannot be contained in the slot. Gronkowski may be the toughest mismatch in the entire league when you consider his size, speed, and hands from the TE position. Corner are too small, safetys and linebackers are too slow. Hernandez also presents a size/speed mismatch. While he is smaller than Gronkowski, his speed is first class from the TE position. All 4 of these players if left in single coverage for most of the game against an average defender would tear an opposing defense to shreds. Having them all on one team makes them together unstoppable.
Let's do some simple math here. There are only 11 defenders on the field. To double any of these 4 players on a given play would leave only 9 defenders. That would leave the other 3 in single coverage and a 6 man front to rush, cover the backs, etc. That's fairly common situation in the NFL. But we've already stated that to leave one of these guys, let alone 3, in single coverage for an extensive period of time would be football suicide. So say you double 2 of them. That leaves now 7 defenders. Now you cover the other 2 players in single coverage and have 5 players left to rush, cover the backs, etc. That leaves yourself pretty thin up front. On a very basic level, it doesn't make much sense to play man coverage against the Patriots, and at a deeper level, playing a zone would eventually expose yourself to similar matchup problems during the play. This makes NE very difficult to stop, and this is if they are telling you on a given play that they will pass.
Consider now the other side of the coin. Getting back to that 12 personel, the Patriots would still have to be taken as a legitimate run threat. To put personel on the field to defend the pass would expose the defense to getting gashed by the run. To put personel on the field to defend against he run would leave them susceptable to the pass. Any combination thereof would leave them exposed somewhere in some fashion. It is easy to see that it would take a very special combination of scheme and player talent to stop the Patriots offense.
We have just outlined just how unstoppable the Patriots offense can be at a fundamental level. Now I have seen many posts suggesting that NE will throw LESS this year based on McDaniels' history with the Patriots. Keep in mind though, that even in the record breaking 50 TD season for Brady, they did not have this kind of unique talent on the team. This compilation of weapons has NEVER happened in the NFL before. I think that you could make a very reasonable arguement for the Patriots to throw MORE this year. After all, it would make more sense for them to play to their strength. The only reason I could see the Patriots throwing less this year would be if teams 100% sold out against the pass and NE had no choice but to ram it down their throats via the run game.
So in conclusion, I do not feel that the Patriots will be due for a regression in their offensive numbers from last year. They are simply too unique of an offense to slow down. To me, they could approach 640 passing attempts this season. This would provide plenty of targets for those big 4 in the receiving game, eliminating the "too many mouths to feed" theory. I would expect Brady to not only throw for 5000 yards again, but at least 40 TDs as well (especially since Lloyd is just one more elite redzone threat). This would lend to Gronk not dropping off nearly as severely as people would think, Welker still compiling plenty of yardage, Lloyd contending for WR1 status, and Hernandez still finishing in the top 5 for TEs. In fact, here are my current projections for the NE passing game:
Brady: 640 attempts, 8.28 YPA, 5299/46/12 (TDs are admittedly probably a shade high, but I'm all in on NE)
Welker: 152 Targets, 112 REC, 11.1 YPC 1243 yds 6 TDs
Lloyd: 132/73/17/1241/10
Gronk: 130/94/14.2/1335/14
Hern: 119/77/11.9/916/9
Like I said, the TDs are probably high, but if the Patriots can produce that many attempts this season, I think these numbers are not too far off from possible.
I really appreciate those of you who took the time to read this post. Interested to see what the community has to say.
I think that's why more teams are going to the 4-3. A 4-3 is effective against spread and 2 TE offenses. It's much easier to build an all purpose 4 man defensive line, than it is to find LB's and safeties that have the speed to stay with a spread, fast TE's, Large TE's and the different types of RB.
!!, it looks like he logged 107 carries, which compares pretty evenly to ridley's 90, with a 4.2 ypc compared with ridley's 5.0.
