Ryan could throw for 40 TD and 5000 yards this season. He's this years Stafford.
I just don't agree with this. To EXPECT there to be 5 40+ TD QBs every year from now on is not realistic. It seems thats what most are doing now, but I just dont see it. Idk about Floe Jacco either, but I do like Matt Ryan quite a bit. I think low to mid 30 TD season isn't out of reach with the offense he hasI believe in the hype, he has a better chance than anyone else to breakout as an elite Quarterback. I am also bullish on Flacco to take a jump with a healthy Boldin and Smith. Rivers doesn't quite have the weapons to be elite.Since there are now more than a few "elite" Quarterbacks, you need one if you want to be competitive. With Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Newton, and Stafford to go around you are foolish if you don't take a QB that can go for 40+ Touchdowns.If you don't have one, that means 5 other teams in your leagues do and they're likely making the playoffs.
Exactly. He's never done it or been close. At least with Stafford, you could see that he had the ability, system and talent to do it along with some games that proved it was coming.Ryan's yet to break 30 TDs, has only barely tossed for more than 4,000 yards and 350 completions--going into his 5th season. Even with good receivers, he still has a lot of work to do. Then, when you consider that ATL has a more useful backfield, it's doubtful they'll throw nearly as much as Detroit did last year. That's not to say that the potential for a breakout season isn't there, but whether Ryan's able to convert is another story altogether.
My exact thoughts, and I had Stafford last year. Looking for this years and I found it, RYAN.Ryan could throw for 40 TD and 5000 yards this season. He's this years Stafford.
I distinctly remember much the same said about Brady as he was headed into his 8th season (7th as a starter). Nobody thought he would make the quantum leap in production he made, even with a (some said "washed up") Randy Moss to throw to.I'm not sold on him at all. He's not a bad player, but I'd feel pretty bad if my qb situation hinged on him improving across the board by 20-25% as a 5th year player.
His YPA was a respectable 7.4, and was higher than 2 of Peyton Manning's last three complete seasons. His rookie season he had a very healthy 7.9 YPA on 434 attempts. Dipped a bit in years 2-3, but definitely moving in the right direction.ETA: Turner has 300+ carries in 3 of the last 4, so there is one reason to think they may resort to more passing. They may want Turner around for a playoff run, which could mean more Jacquizz and his solid receiving game.Biggest problem for Ryan is that he's a mediocre QB. His YPA was 0.8 yards higher than his previous two seasons in 2011, and he was still only #15 in the league. Ryan was also 7th in the league in pass attempts in 2011. Stafford was a slightly above average QB last season, but his league leading pass attempts made him fantasy gold last year. I don't think it is very likely that Ryan will become much better than his career year last season in terms of efficiency and/or see Atlanta leading the league (or being super close) in pass attempts. So I'd expect him to remain fairly static in terms of his numbers for next season. Possibly even regress as his YPA and Atlanta pass attempts drop from their 3 season high in 2011.
Passing numbers were way up over 2011 possibly because of the rule changes, so comparing to Manning's 2008-2010 seasons might not be an apples to apples comparison. And the final numbers for Ryan for 2011 were in line with Manning of 2008, 2009. 7.4 is league average in 2011.You either need to predict Ryan to improve his YPA and/or his attempts to expect any improvement vs last seasons numbers. I don't see a compelling reason to assume either will be the case.His YPA was a respectable 7.4, and was higher than 2 of Peyton Manning's last three complete seasons. His rookie season he had a very healthy 7.9 YPA on 434 attempts. Dipped a bit in years 2-3, but definitely moving in the right direction.ETA: Turner has 300+ carries in 3 of the last 4, so there is one reason to think they may resort to more passing. They may want Turner around for a playoff run, which could mean more Jacquizz and his solid receiving game.Biggest problem for Ryan is that he's a mediocre QB. His YPA was 0.8 yards higher than his previous two seasons in 2011, and he was still only #15 in the league. Ryan was also 7th in the league in pass attempts in 2011. Stafford was a slightly above average QB last season, but his league leading pass attempts made him fantasy gold last year. I don't think it is very likely that Ryan will become much better than his career year last season in terms of efficiency and/or see Atlanta leading the league (or being super close) in pass attempts. So I'd expect him to remain fairly static in terms of his numbers for next season. Possibly even regress as his YPA and Atlanta pass attempts drop from their 3 season high in 2011.
It's not like they were this great run-centric team to begin with.Atlanta had only 453 rushing attempts in '11. They were ranked 17th in the NFL..
ETA: Turner has 300+ carries in 3 of the last 4, so there is one reason to think they may resort to more passing. They may want Turner around for a playoff run, which could mean more Jacquizz and his solid receiving game.
I'm not convinced ATL will throw the ball more.
I see a 10% bump in pass attempts for Ryan this season. Which would still only place them third in the league according to last years stats, though I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped below 4th. I expect the passing trends to continue for teams not named San Franciso, Seattle and a small handful of others.It's not like they were this great run-centric team to begin with.Atlanta had only 453 rushing attempts in '11. They were ranked 17th in the NFL..
ETA: Turner has 300+ carries in 3 of the last 4, so there is one reason to think they may resort to more passing. They may want Turner around for a playoff run, which could mean more Jacquizz and his solid receiving game.
On the flip-side, they had 594 passing attempts. They ranked 4th in the NFL in that category.
Unless they go into a lot of overtime, I don't see how Atlanta could be too much more of a passing team than they already were in 2011.
A fair point, but I'm also not ready to assume Ryan and the offensive game plan can take that leap. He is a good player for sure, I just think in our rush to find the next 5k/40 guy we have jumped the gun. I think both newton and freeman have the same chance that ryan does.I distinctly remember much the same said about Brady as he was headed into his 8th season (7th as a starter). Nobody thought he would make the quantum leap in production he made, even with a (some said "washed up") Randy Moss to throw to.I'm not sold on him at all. He's not a bad player, but I'd feel pretty bad if my qb situation hinged on him improving across the board by 20-25% as a 5th year player.
Curious to know what you base either of these chances on, particularly in the case of Freeman.A fair point, but I'm also not ready to assume Ryan and the offensive game plan can take that leap. He is a good player for sure, I just think in our rush to find the next 5k/40 guy we have jumped the gun. I think both newton and freeman have the same chance that ryan does.I distinctly remember much the same said about Brady as he was headed into his 8th season (7th as a starter). Nobody thought he would make the quantum leap in production he made, even with a (some said "washed up") Randy Moss to throw to.I'm not sold on him at all. He's not a bad player, but I'd feel pretty bad if my qb situation hinged on him improving across the board by 20-25% as a 5th year player.
Even as a Bucs fan, I have to strongly disagree with that statement. Free has no chance at that. Not giving up on him yet, but his ceiling this year is nowhere near 5,000 yards or 40 TDs. Especially with Schiano talking about being a run-first team with the addition of Nicks.A fair point, but I'm also not ready to assume Ryan and the offensive game plan can take that leap. He is a good player for sure, I just think in our rush to find the next 5k/40 guy we have jumped the gun. I think both newton and freeman have the same chance that ryan does.I distinctly remember much the same said about Brady as he was headed into his 8th season (7th as a starter). Nobody thought he would make the quantum leap in production he made, even with a (some said "washed up") Randy Moss to throw to.I'm not sold on him at all. He's not a bad player, but I'd feel pretty bad if my qb situation hinged on him improving across the board by 20-25% as a 5th year player.
The completion percentage had a lot to do with Olson's checkdown offense. If he's going to throw for big yards, he'll need to go further down the field. And even with Jackson, going down the field more is going to result in a dip in comp % 99 times out of 100. And he'd need increased reps, which wouldn't happen with Schiano unless Martin went down early and for a long time. Schiano is definitely going to try and establish the run, so there's no justification that Free gets the attempts needed to gain about 1500 more yards and 25 more TDs than last year....Freeman is a long shot, primarily because of the offense they are likely to run. But the addition of Jackson along with a 7ypa and 65% completion average don't make it outside the realm of possibility. He would need about 100 more attempts at an extra yard per to even begin to get in range, but Jackson is a deep threat he's never had.
Oh, ok. I thought your post was about him having the same chance to do it as Ryan this year. Down the line, I agree. Freeman has the ability, but his growth was stunted by Olson and Raheem. Schiano and Sullivan seem to be worlds better for him, if he's ever going to fulfill his vast potential. But it's going to take the time.Was just saying he has the ability and the arm and possivly the weapons Who knows if he ever gets there.
Right. I think the NFC south has 4 qbs with great futures, brees included.Oh, ok. I thought your post was about him having the same chance to do it as Ryan this year. Down the line, I agree. Freeman has the ability, but his growth was stunted by Olson and Raheem. Schiano and Sullivan seem to be worlds better for him, if he's ever going to fulfill his vast potential. But it's going to take the time.Was just saying he has the ability and the arm and possivly the weapons Who knows if he ever gets there.
i'll give u 2;wr screens and quizz screens. he threw next to zero screen passes last yr (or the yrs before) under koetter they will heavily utilize jones/white/quizz.completion % on wr screens and rb screens has to be naturally much higher i would imagine.Passing numbers were way up over 2011 possibly because of the rule changes, so comparing to Manning's 2008-2010 seasons might not be an apples to apples comparison. And the final numbers for Ryan for 2011 were in line with Manning of 2008, 2009. 7.4 is league average in 2011.You either need to predict Ryan to improve his YPA and/or his attempts to expect any improvement vs last seasons numbers. I don't see a compelling reason to assume either will be the case.His YPA was a respectable 7.4, and was higher than 2 of Peyton Manning's last three complete seasons. His rookie season he had a very healthy 7.9 YPA on 434 attempts. Dipped a bit in years 2-3, but definitely moving in the right direction.ETA: Turner has 300+ carries in 3 of the last 4, so there is one reason to think they may resort to more passing. They may want Turner around for a playoff run, which could mean more Jacquizz and his solid receiving game.Biggest problem for Ryan is that he's a mediocre QB. His YPA was 0.8 yards higher than his previous two seasons in 2011, and he was still only #15 in the league. Ryan was also 7th in the league in pass attempts in 2011. Stafford was a slightly above average QB last season, but his league leading pass attempts made him fantasy gold last year. I don't think it is very likely that Ryan will become much better than his career year last season in terms of efficiency and/or see Atlanta leading the league (or being super close) in pass attempts. So I'd expect him to remain fairly static in terms of his numbers for next season. Possibly even regress as his YPA and Atlanta pass attempts drop from their 3 season high in 2011.
1 more reason It will happen...I'm not convinced ATL will throw the ball more.
As far as value in Atlanta if Ryan is going as high as some of you are saying, Im all aboard the Michael Turner train.you're behind the curve now. Everyone is touting Ryan. At this point, you're better off finding another value pick.
His ADP in drafts since August 15th is actually still QB8 on MFL, after Eli. Romo, Peyton, and Rivers all within 10 picks of his ADP, which I dont think is unreasonable either. I feel like the people saying he's going in the 4th round in their leagues are more the exception than the norm right now.Last year he finished QB8. Now his ADP is QB7. I don't see what all the fuss is about. Seems fairly valued to me.
Good to see you back...kinda The Falcons are going to air it out this year, Ryan is stronger, has weapons everywhere I can see 5k and 40 td's. Blank the owner has made some absolute statements regarding the state of the franchise, and it was easy to read...WIN NOW!I'm not convinced ATL will throw the ball more.
I can get not buying his talent. I don't necessarily agree, but it doesn't seem unreasonable. I don't, however, think you can write him off on ever being elite from what he's shown in his first 4 years. Eli didn't complete 60% of his passes until year 5. Drew Brees was a historically slow starter in his career. I'm sure if you asked people in 2004 if Brees would be leading the league in nearly everything, they'd say no way or he wasn't good enough. Not saying he ever will become an elite QB, but I do think it's too early in his career to definitively say he can/can't ever be elite.I also don't get the playoff stuff. My championship and 99% of others' are in week 15/16. What happens after the league is over is irrelevant to me. From a purely fantasy standpoint, the playoffs carry less weight than the pre-season IMO.I don't buy into Ryan's talent. I don't think he has shown he has elite talent and has flopped in big games in the playoffs. I thought he took a step backwards last year and wasn't impressed.He has the receiving weapons, but no way do I see him throwing up 4700+ and 40 tds or something like that. He isn't good enough.
Brees was a monster in 2004. Eli Manning's rapid improvement from year 6 of his career going forward is quite rare among QBs. Ryan made a big jump from markedly below average in efficiency to average last season. Going much further up from there would be pretty even more unusual than Eli's jump.I can get not buying his talent. I don't necessarily agree, but it doesn't seem unreasonable. I don't, however, think you can write him off on ever being elite from what he's shown in his first 4 years. Eli didn't complete 60% of his passes until year 5. Drew Brees was a historically slow starter in his career. I'm sure if you asked people in 2004 if Brees would be leading the league in nearly everything, they'd say no way or he wasn't good enough. Not saying he ever will become an elite QB, but I do think it's too early in his career to definitively say he can/can't ever be elite.I also don't get the playoff stuff. My championship and 99% of others' are in week 15/16. What happens after the league is over is irrelevant to me. From a purely fantasy standpoint, the playoffs carry less weight than the pre-season IMO.I don't buy into Ryan's talent. I don't think he has shown he has elite talent and has flopped in big games in the playoffs. I thought he took a step backwards last year and wasn't impressed.He has the receiving weapons, but no way do I see him throwing up 4700+ and 40 tds or something like that. He isn't good enough.
4th rd and rising. LinkI saw it with my own eyes this weekend ...twiceHis ADP in drafts since August 15th is actually still QB8 on MFL, after Eli. Romo, Peyton, and Rivers all within 10 picks of his ADP, which I dont think is unreasonable either. I feel like the people saying he's going in the 4th round in their leagues are more the exception than the norm right now.Last year he finished QB8. Now his ADP is QB7. I don't see what all the fuss is about. Seems fairly valued to me.
At that point he isnt even a value pick then, youre basically going all in on him blowing Eli, Romo, Rivers etc out of the water if not being a Top 5 QB.4th rd and rising. LinkI saw it with my own eyes this weekend ...twiceHis ADP in drafts since August 15th is actually still QB8 on MFL, after Eli. Romo, Peyton, and Rivers all within 10 picks of his ADP, which I dont think is unreasonable either. I feel like the people saying he's going in the 4th round in their leagues are more the exception than the norm right now.Last year he finished QB8. Now his ADP is QB7. I don't see what all the fuss is about. Seems fairly valued to me.
35th and 42nd overall in two real drafts. I'm interested in seeing where he goes in my draft next week.
04 is also the year that the Chargers drafted Rivers and most everyone was discounting Brees, who was coming off a year where he ceded the starting job to Doug Flutie. Point being, that was his 4th year.Eli came together statistically in his 5th season and on. Rich Gannon even further. Or Vick. Or Brad Johnson. Saying you've got guys figured out after 4 seasons is a bigger jump than the one people are saying Ryan is incapable of making. Just my opinion.Also, speaking of efficiency, Eli was top 5 in INTs 3 years straight after his rookie year, and I think had around a 70 QB rating in his 4th year. And I was a big Eli fan going back to his Ole Miss days, but he was pretty bad early.Brees was a monster in 2004. Eli Manning's rapid improvement from year 6 of his career going forward is quite rare among QBs. Ryan made a big jump from markedly below average in efficiency to average last season. Going much further up from there would be pretty even more unusual than Eli's jump.I can get not buying his talent. I don't necessarily agree, but it doesn't seem unreasonable. I don't, however, think you can write him off on ever being elite from what he's shown in his first 4 years. Eli didn't complete 60% of his passes until year 5. Drew Brees was a historically slow starter in his career. I'm sure if you asked people in 2004 if Brees would be leading the league in nearly everything, they'd say no way or he wasn't good enough. Not saying he ever will become an elite QB, but I do think it's too early in his career to definitively say he can/can't ever be elite.I also don't get the playoff stuff. My championship and 99% of others' are in week 15/16. What happens after the league is over is irrelevant to me. From a purely fantasy standpoint, the playoffs carry less weight than the pre-season IMO.I don't buy into Ryan's talent. I don't think he has shown he has elite talent and has flopped in big games in the playoffs. I thought he took a step backwards last year and wasn't impressed.He has the receiving weapons, but no way do I see him throwing up 4700+ and 40 tds or something like that. He isn't good enough.
Re: next weekend's round of drafts. I wonder if in the 3rd preseason game, since both teams will have some sort of game planning in place, Ryan will look a little more average and his ADP will drop back into value land.Wishful thinking, but it's possible his value could sink just as quickly as it's ascended.At that point he isnt even a value pick then, youre basically going all in on him blowing Eli, Romo, Rivers etc out of the water if not being a Top 5 QB.4th rd and rising. LinkI saw it with my own eyes this weekend ...twiceHis ADP in drafts since August 15th is actually still QB8 on MFL, after Eli. Romo, Peyton, and Rivers all within 10 picks of his ADP, which I dont think is unreasonable either. I feel like the people saying he's going in the 4th round in their leagues are more the exception than the norm right now.Last year he finished QB8. Now his ADP is QB7. I don't see what all the fuss is about. Seems fairly valued to me.
35th and 42nd overall in two real drafts. I'm interested in seeing where he goes in my draft next week.