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TE Jimmy Graham, CHI (1 Viewer)

So can we just assume that Graham was the only player Pit was defending? Or is he not healthy or something? I know there was no need to force it to him as NO was up most of the game but thought he'd get a few targets at least.

 
graham was on the sidelines for half the game. i'm not sure what is up but what a terrible week for this to happen. now i need a huge game from charles to keep my playoff hopes alive

 
graham was on the sidelines for half the game. i'm not sure what is up but what a terrible week for this to happen. now i need a huge game from charles to keep my playoff hopes alive
Hmmm...still not 100% and since they were winning just getting him some rest?

 
So can we just assume that Graham was the only player Pit was defending? Or is he not healthy or something? I know there was no need to force it to him as NO was up most of the game but thought he'd get a few targets at least.
Fox's sideline reporter interviewed Brees post-game. It was helpful.

Paraphrasing

Q: Why did Graham end up with no catches?

A: What?

Q: Jimmy Graham had no catches, any reason?

A: Really, wow. I had no idea. We just didnt get there today. (laughing) Did Still know he was going to get 160? We just sort of spread it around on this team. No reason at all.

 
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For Graham owners in the playoffs next week, this was a best case scenario assuming it is not due to any injury.

 
Why exactly is this a best case scenario?
Because I never want my guy to go big the final week of the regular season. Too many times that happens to me and then the 1st week of the playoffs, the guy lays an egg. I'm quite happy about this performance as Brees will target him next week and the next team they play against will know that they have to cover Stills and the other guys.

 
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.
 
Why exactly is this a best case scenario?
Only thing I can assume he meant is law of averages?
Yep.
this is actually the gamblers fallacy
Call it what you want but I am loving the fact that he zeroed out this week. Better than going 8-150 and 2 TDs.
Como se what?
He must own Graham in his golf style fantasy league.

 
Anyway, yeah that was weird I was going up against Brees & Graham, thinking I would be scrambling for a comeback tonight.

Instead I'm at the ballet. Totally zen, knowing I just locked up a spot due to my opponents bad luck.

 
Why exactly is this a best case scenario?
Only thing I can assume he meant is law of averages?
Yep.
this is actually the gamblers fallacy
Call it what you want but I am loving the fact that he zeroed out this week. Better than going 8-150 and 2 TDs.
Como se what?
He must own Graham in his golf style fantasy league.
I own him, I'm already in the playoffs so it's better to put up the goose egg the week before I need him.

 
To my eyes, Graham hasn't looked the same since his injuries earlier in the year. Not bad, but just not as dynamic...and, therefore, more likely to put up some stinkers here and there.

I know the 'nobody is 100%' cliche at this point of the season, but it looks like he might be less 100% than others...would not be at all shocked if we get some revelations about the severity of injuries at the end of the season.

 
To my eyes, Graham hasn't looked the same since his injuries earlier in the year. Not bad, but just not as dynamic...and, therefore, more likely to put up some stinkers here and there.

I know the 'nobody is 100%' cliche at this point of the season, but it looks like he might be less 100% than others...would not be at all shocked if we get some revelations about the severity of injuries at the end of the season.
That's sort of Graham's modus operandi. For all the flak Gronk catches for missing time, Graham's dealt with injuries in each of the last two seasons and saw his numbers fall off a cliff in both.

Graham averaged 8.0/85.0 receiving over the first four weeks and has averaged 4.1/41.3 receiving since. Last year, Graham averaged 7.4/118.6 over the first five weeks, then tore his plantar fascia and averaged 4.5/56.5 the rest of the way. In 2012, Graham played the whole season with an undisclosed wrist injury that required offseason surgery and only averaged 5.7/65.5 for the year after a healthy 2011 when he averaged 6.2/81.9.

All told, since his breakout year in 2011 that's 89.7 yards per game when healthy and 57.1 yards per game when dealing with some nagging injury. Not that 57.1 yards per game is a bad average, all things considered, but it's like the difference between Rob Gronkowski and Jason Witten.

 
Sounds about right - fantasy owners are despondent, but Brees is too good of a QB to force the ball when not necessary. Lesser QBs would have tried to force feed Jimmy.

Graham is a team player that isn't whining about not being targeted, and the Saints won despite not involving him - don't expect a "we have to feed Jimmy" makeup next week by Payton and Brees if it's not there.

 
He didnt get targeted because he cares less than he did before he got paid?
He wasn't in the game .... a lot. When it was Jimmy Graham time, he was on the sidelines a lot. Red zone, third downs, there he was on the bench. I think the Saints might feel as though they were protecting him. Or they are hiding his injuries a bit. I don't think he cares less. But when you have the opportunity to earn a lot of money, you'd probably be pushing a bit harder to get in there.

 
Why exactly is this a best case scenario?
Only thing I can assume he meant is law of averages?
Yep.
this is actually the gamblers fallacy
Call it what you want but I am loving the fact that he zeroed out this week. Better than going 8-150 and 2 TDs.
Yeah, why have solid, consistent production (like Demaryius, Antonio, Jordy, Gronk, etc) when you can hope for lightnin-in-a-bottle production?

 
To my eyes, Graham hasn't looked the same since his injuries earlier in the year. Not bad, but just not as dynamic...and, therefore, more likely to put up some stinkers here and there.

I know the 'nobody is 100%' cliche at this point of the season, but it looks like he might be less 100% than others...would not be at all shocked if we get some revelations about the severity of injuries at the end of the season.
That's sort of Graham's modus operandi. For all the flak Gronk catches for missing time, Graham's dealt with injuries in each of the last two seasons and saw his numbers fall off a cliff in both.

Graham averaged 8.0/85.0 receiving over the first four weeks and has averaged 4.1/41.3 receiving since. Last year, Graham averaged 7.4/118.6 over the first five weeks, then tore his plantar fascia and averaged 4.5/56.5 the rest of the way. In 2012, Graham played the whole season with an undisclosed wrist injury that required offseason surgery and only averaged 5.7/65.5 for the year after a healthy 2011 when he averaged 6.2/81.9.

All told, since his breakout year in 2011 that's 89.7 yards per game when healthy and 57.1 yards per game when dealing with some nagging injury. Not that 57.1 yards per game is a bad average, all things considered, but it's like the difference between Rob Gronkowski and Jason Witten.
Great post. I didn't have the figures, but as a Graham owner all three of the past years this is the life of a Graham owner. When healthy he may be the most valuable player in FF. But, as noted, he is always dealing with something and it has resulted in some late season duds. The promise of Stud RB1 / WR1 numbers from a TE is hard to ignore, but the shiny Toy tarnishes easily.

 
Goose egg from a first rounder in a critical FF week. Oooooof. Not trolling.. I am an owner.
I believe he had a goose egg (or very, very close) at least once out of the last couple years, maybe both.
Has the blue print been made by Allen and Palamalu to cut off his routes?
Maybe if you like Brees throwing 5 tds to other guys.
I'd rather make Stills and Toon beat me than Jimmy Graham. If you don't put pressure on Brees he will beat you with players you're not doubling.

 
I'd rather make Stills and Toon beat me than Jimmy Graham. If you don't put pressure on Brees he will beat you with players you're not doubling.
I thought a lot of what the Saints were doing was simply crossing up Pittsburgh's film study of the Saints offense. Going to Graham predictably in certain situation was leading to jumped routes and a lot of check-downs.

 
Goose egg from a first rounder in a critical FF week. Oooooof. Not trolling.. I am an owner.
I believe he had a goose egg (or very, very close) at least once out of the last couple years, maybe both.
Has the blue print been made by Allen and Palamalu to cut off his routes?
Maybe if you like Brees throwing 5 tds to other guys.
I'd rather make Stills and Toon beat me than Jimmy Graham. If you don't put pressure on Brees he will beat you with players you're not doubling.
Was their 3rd highest point total of year, don't know it was a success.

 
Goose egg from a first rounder in a critical FF week. Oooooof. Not trolling.. I am an owner.
I believe he had a goose egg (or very, very close) at least once out of the last couple years, maybe both.
Has the blue print been made by Allen and Palamalu to cut off his routes?
Maybe if you like Brees throwing 5 tds to other guys.
this is kind of dumb excuse. A number of the tds thrown graham wasnt even in the game.
 
joey said:
Sure, gamblers fallacy and all...but we're not talking about truly random events here.

There are players, coaches, game plans, PRIDE, etc. involved. It's not random whether Graham gets a target or not. Sure, if he's hurt that's a totally different story (something must not be right with zero targets) but when a star player doesn't have anything go his way in a game, we've all seen instances where it seems the the coaches and other players go out of their way to feed that player in the following game. Not every time...but 60% of the tim3, it works every time. ;)

That was also just an elaborate way to say :blackdot:
Well said.

 
Rotoworld:

Jimmy Graham conceded that his early-season shoulder injury has continued to give him problems.

Graham said it's mostly affected him as a blocker. His Week 13 goose egg was the result of double and triple teams by the Steelers' defense, not an injury. "At times this year the shoulder has really held me back sometimes," Graham said. "Other times I’m able to fight through the pain. I just got to man up and keep doing it." Graham's playing time has been back to normal for about a month now. He's a top-two tight end play Sunday versus Carolina.

Source: Baton Rouge Advocate
Dec 5 - 3:56 PM
 
So what do you guys think with playoffs on the line? Are you trusting him this week? I realize you may not have a choice but what about leagues that lump WR and TE together. Would you sit him?

 

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