Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
audiophile
Footballguy
My overall strategy is very basic and is unchanged pre/post Trump: Look for value; Opportunistically buy low and/or sell high. That's it.fantasycurse42 said:
Recent examples: Bought GILD at 52-week low points; Sold UN Friday after Kraft/Heinz offer.
Everyday all I do is look at my portfolio and sort by % change for the day. I then evaluate the top and bottom of the list to determine if there are either buy or sell opportunities. For stocks that I have conviction about, I love it when they dip low and I can scoop up more at a higher yield....
Buttonhook
Footballguy
My theory is the market is currently taking advantage of people's excitement (from an economic standpoint) over Trump. While it's obviously not the general sentiment on this board, there's a large group of people in America who feel rejuvenated, who truly believe that Trump will be the difference-maker in their financial woes. The market is simply riding this wave, trying to make the wave as big as possible before it comes crashing down.
I know the market can't be this simple, but now-a-days it sure seems to be driven by public perception/emotions more so than metrics.
Sand
Footballguy
There are many times in history this has been the case. Note we're nowhere near the 2000 euphoria. Right now we're just somewhat overvalued (IMO), not massively so.
Buffet's most famous quote about voting machines and weighing machines is in full effect here.
I agree Trump is all that. But he is also massively de-regulatory. The banks and miners and lots of other folks expect no one to be watching the cookie jar for the next four years, or better yet to be restocking the cookie jar with double stuff Oreos. No wonder the markets are giddy.
Personally I don't think Trump can last even with the stranglehold the Republicans have. If/when he is gone, there will be hell to pay. I'm a seller.
dschuler
Footballguy
The market isn't even up 100% from the 2000 highs 17 years ago. The previous 17 years before that the Dow soared 400-500%. This is BY FAR the longest stretch ever in the history of the Dow we have waited from a double off of an all time high. I would expect to see the Dow over 40K four years from now if tax reform gets accomplished because history tells us it more than likely will double. If the dollar would get weak and some sectors can get hot again, I wouldn't be surprised to see it even higher.
culdeus
Footballguy
This isn't a politics thread so will keep this short. The president signs taxes. When there is control of the congress its that party congress reps that set taxes.fantasycurse42 said:
In that sense trump won't really have a say in a tax bill. He might shape it a tiny bit but its owned by congress.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Wonder where all the big short sellers have gone. I know a few that gave up the ghost years ago.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I get it, and not trying to talk politics, but the market isn't pricing the political risk, do you disagree ?
Were ridign the rumor of HUGE tax reforms right now, no?
culdeus
Footballguy
If they can repatriate offshore income and lower corporate taxes at same time the effect could be epic. I have doubts the stick is as big as the carrot though.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
91 Today....
Trump is supposed to releasing the details of his economic plan on Tuesday 2/28....General Malaise said:
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Any indication of the Trump plan? Any clue which sectors might be affected? Crash or Boom?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Right now, this is SORT OF tongue in cheek, the consensus seems to be that every regulation is going to be eliminated and taxes are going to be slashed to next to nothing.
General Malaise
Footballguy
High-grade cobalt moved to a range of $22.50-$24 per pound. End-users getting very nervous and pressuring producers not to sell to "speculators".
General Malaise
Footballguy
It'll have a pull back soon. There are a few other crappy cobalt stocks that haven't run too much yet (Fortune and Cruz Capital) but I'm loathe to even name them. As a rule, I try to only suggest stocks I own personally.
eCobalt is still just a property with a small amount of cobalt in the ground. Kind of silly what's going on but rising tide and all that.
You've been talking about Chevy Cobalts, right?High-grade cobalt moved to a range of $22.50-$24 per pound. End-users getting very nervous and pressuring producers not to sell to "speculators".
:roarinsonoran:
I still think that when we bust 20T in debt and congress start flipping out about it, there will be a selloff on uncertainty. That's in March. Could be right around your timeframe.fantasycurse42 said:
This one is new to me and I find it hilarious. If this doesn't tell you what a joke the debt is, nothing will: Treasury can't do that when the level of borrowing hits the ceiling, unless lawmakers vote to raise it again or, as they've done repeatedly in recent years,"suspend" it. A suspension basically lets Treasury borrow whatever it needs to pay the bills and when the suspension ends, the new ceiling is set at the amount of outstanding debt that day.
That's likely to be just north of $20 trillion when the latest suspension ends on March 15.
Sand
Footballguy
So I bought TEVA and OPK near the beginning of the year. TEVA back in the green - 
I think it will ultimately flourish under an administration who will squeeze branded drugs.
OPK is still here -
. I'm holding it for a while just to give siffoin a chance to redeem himself.
In other news, my portfolio doesn't keep up with raging bulls. Trailing the S&P a bit this year so far. Not a surprise - when this thing hiccups hopefully I don't tank as much.
I think it will ultimately flourish under an administration who will squeeze branded drugs.OPK is still here -
. I'm holding it for a while just to give siffoin a chance to redeem himself. In other news, my portfolio doesn't keep up with raging bulls. Trailing the S&P a bit this year so far. Not a surprise - when this thing hiccups hopefully I don't tank as much.
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
How about Bearing Resources Ltd. (BRGRF)? I know they are Cobalt and Lithium, but seems like a decent place to play Cobalt?
General Malaise
Footballguy
I just pulled up their Corporate Presentation for Feb 2017 and did a word search for 'cobalt'. 0 hits. I think they are focused on lithium, which we have an interest in as well, but would never buy physical lithium the way we have cobalt. Such a light metal, you'd need a ginormous place for storage.Al Czervik said:
Our biggest lithium position is NeoLithium, which is chaired by the former CEO of Neo Materials. We were heavily involved in Neo Materials and believe Constantine is a hell of a manager, so we're betting on his project in Argentina being a winner.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Dow goes up and oil is going down. Commodities are not doing as well as I would hope right now. I guess all I am doing is riding the dividend train with them for now. It's a nice train at 7% so I'm not too sad but these gains are looking so sweet in other sectors.
saintfool
Dead sexy
shadrap
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Mario Kart
Footballguy
shadrap
Footballguy
I get it now. petroleum & natural gas. That is actually my business so I'm a little hesitant as in no diversification. Hard to pass up 7% and I think the price of oil will go up. In for a nickel, in for a dime.
Thanks again.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
RUSF18
Footballguy
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Not sure how much you have but can you take out your initial investment and play with free money? If so, why not do that?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Why the hell didn't somebody say so?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I sold some Apple, bought some Gilead. Gild does need to start doing something with that mountain of cash though. Simple restructuring, selling top performers, buying the underperformers, keeping a balance.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Really struggle with everything Trump says, the numbers are basically impossible & the BAT will not happen (certainly not enough to offset huge tax reform). Huge tax reform and more infrastructure spending, how is that possible? If it goes through, I'll officially be a believer that the National Debt means absolutely nothing.
If he actually accomplishes his plans, he'll make the debt Obama ran up look like peanuts.
Even if the BAT gets through and these reforms happen, the costs of that tax will be passed along to the consumer - Anyone think a 20% increase in the price of imports passed to the consumer might be an issue to the broader economy?
The whole thing smells like a ####### disaster to me, tbh - but I struggle to sell. If these Trump plans fall through, the market will be wildly overvalued with rising rates as additional headwinds.
If he actually accomplishes his plans, he'll make the debt Obama ran up look like peanuts.
Even if the BAT gets through and these reforms happen, the costs of that tax will be passed along to the consumer - Anyone think a 20% increase in the price of imports passed to the consumer might be an issue to the broader economy?
The whole thing smells like a ####### disaster to me, tbh - but I struggle to sell. If these Trump plans fall through, the market will be wildly overvalued with rising rates as additional headwinds.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
From the lows of election night to today, S&P is up about 17%, pretty ridiculous.
About 350 points, really struggling to not unload at this point.
About 350 points, really struggling to not unload at this point.
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Also, to add, god bless that orange buffoon.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Am I on an island by myself looking to sell right now? I say it almost every single day at this point, but everything inside of me is screaming sell, and I still can't.
401k I'll ride the wave up and down, but other stuff I'm really getting an itchy trigger finger.
Debating taking some profits off tomorrow, prob could hold off until the S&P hits 2,500, but I don't know if I want to be greedy.
401k I'll ride the wave up and down, but other stuff I'm really getting an itchy trigger finger.
Debating taking some profits off tomorrow, prob could hold off until the S&P hits 2,500, but I don't know if I want to be greedy.
NREC34
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm on the island with you.
The market just keeps going up, up, up! I just don't know for how long. Trump's speech last night sure got everyone excited but I don't see how all of that stuff gets accomplished without significantly adding to the debt or causing a trade war (or two). To borrow a phrase from @siffoin, the trend is your friend (I'm paraphrasing) and right now the trend is up.
It makes me a little nervous when everybody is bullish since it seems like any little wiggle in expectations can change sentiment in a hurry.
I've been selling since election day. Still about 75+% in stocks, but I keep waiting for a correction before I put money back in. No idea what is going on though.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Nobody is ever going to time the top or bottom right, and if you do, it has almost zero to do with skill and everything to do with luck. The ends of massive bull markets are typically met with large surges (almost 20% in 4 months for the Dow, 350 points in the S&P - I'd say this is a humungous move).
I'm sure anyone who sells at first feels like a jerk after missing another 5-7%, but if you think the DJIA is forever over 20k and won't pullback below, I'd think you were insane.
We're riding exuberance right now and this can apparently keep rolling for who knows how long, but when the music stops, I'd imagine you would want a sturdy chair behind you.
Everyone is riding the hopes and nobody is thinking of any risks, like zero thoughts of risk, that's when you enter dangerous territory. I'd imagine when this does eventually turn (whether this year, next year, the year after, who the #### knows when) and the market gets back to reality, it'll turn as hard as anything we've seen in some time. I'm not saying a 2008-2009 like crash, more so a huge tidal wave that takes out 10-15% in like 2-3 weeks. People will be racing for the exits without knowing why, and if Trump doesn't come through on all of these promises (and I'm a skeptic bc the math just doesn't make sense IMO), they'll be heading to those exits for a valid reason.
I've really been thinking heavily about an exit strategy for the last month, still can't come up with one.
I'm sure anyone who sells at first feels like a jerk after missing another 5-7%, but if you think the DJIA is forever over 20k and won't pullback below, I'd think you were insane.
We're riding exuberance right now and this can apparently keep rolling for who knows how long, but when the music stops, I'd imagine you would want a sturdy chair behind you.
Everyone is riding the hopes and nobody is thinking of any risks, like zero thoughts of risk, that's when you enter dangerous territory. I'd imagine when this does eventually turn (whether this year, next year, the year after, who the #### knows when) and the market gets back to reality, it'll turn as hard as anything we've seen in some time. I'm not saying a 2008-2009 like crash, more so a huge tidal wave that takes out 10-15% in like 2-3 weeks. People will be racing for the exits without knowing why, and if Trump doesn't come through on all of these promises (and I'm a skeptic bc the math just doesn't make sense IMO), they'll be heading to those exits for a valid reason.
I've really been thinking heavily about an exit strategy for the last month, still can't come up with one.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I'm a good 20 years out from retirement so I think I'm rolling with it. Actually just bought some RDS B yesterday. Im spread too thin between work and family to be an active trader that really knows what's going on. Your right it does feel like a huge asset bubble but if yields don't shoot up who knows when and if it bursts. People are chasing yield.....bubble or new normal?
culdeus
Footballguy
At this point a 10% correction would sting, but I wouldn't be jumping out a window. In November if you told me I was flat to today I'd be doing a backflip. This is all cushion to me for the eventual crash that I'll never time correctly, so why try?
I will be forced to do some rebalancing and resulting tax selling to pay off some CGs.
I will be forced to do some rebalancing and resulting tax selling to pay off some CGs.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
CAT 
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
OPK 
(Sticking in for the long haul though)
(Sticking in for the long haul though)
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/07/budget-deficit-must-grow-for-economic-growth-analyst-says.html
It doesn't take an overpaid banker to figure this stuff out, basically anyone who can add 1+1 can see it, it is verbatim what I've been saying, yet the markets don't care.
Our government is going to repeat what consumers and banks did in the 2000's, they'll continue accumulating debt until they can't pay it or they have to print endless money.
The budget deficit is going to grow tremendously and the national debt is going to explode.
When was the last time our economy ran organically? Everyone eyes fiscal stimulus now, for the last 8 years it has been stimulus from the Fed, whether QE or no interest. Nobody will like to hear this, it will never happen, and I prob sound like a lunatic, but it might be time for a fresh reset - we're in a cycle of injecting money that we don't have, there is no painless way to end this cycle.
If we increase the deficit and Trump's plans make it through, I'm all in on this market, I'll take the free money. I'll also be prepared to start shorting it in 2-4 years when the debt turns into a nuclear bomb.
It doesn't take an overpaid banker to figure this stuff out, basically anyone who can add 1+1 can see it, it is verbatim what I've been saying, yet the markets don't care.
Our government is going to repeat what consumers and banks did in the 2000's, they'll continue accumulating debt until they can't pay it or they have to print endless money.
The budget deficit is going to grow tremendously and the national debt is going to explode.
When was the last time our economy ran organically? Everyone eyes fiscal stimulus now, for the last 8 years it has been stimulus from the Fed, whether QE or no interest. Nobody will like to hear this, it will never happen, and I prob sound like a lunatic, but it might be time for a fresh reset - we're in a cycle of injecting money that we don't have, there is no painless way to end this cycle.
If we increase the deficit and Trump's plans make it through, I'm all in on this market, I'll take the free money. I'll also be prepared to start shorting it in 2-4 years when the debt turns into a nuclear bomb.
Last edited by a moderator:
