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Stock Thread (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Gawain
Footballguy
Tariff hike goes into effect. China pledges retaliation. S&P futures down .3%
ETA: USA currently has tariffs on 47% of goods imported from China. China currently has tariffs on 91% of goods imported from the USA. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/us/politics/china-trade-tariffs.html
The 325B is the big question now. Flexport reported that their customs clearance was being affected by the 25% rate as of yesterday, while the official guidance is that the new rates are only applicable to shipments that have yet to depart China. Perhaps Flexport was looking at preclearing air shipments that had yet to depart.
ETA: USA currently has tariffs on 47% of goods imported from China. China currently has tariffs on 91% of goods imported from the USA. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/us/politics/china-trade-tariffs.html
The 325B is the big question now. Flexport reported that their customs clearance was being affected by the 25% rate as of yesterday, while the official guidance is that the new rates are only applicable to shipments that have yet to depart China. Perhaps Flexport was looking at preclearing air shipments that had yet to depart.
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Don't Noonan
Footballguy
UBER priced at $45, initial range was $44-$50 so it priced at low end of range. Initial indications of opening price was $50, then $48, now $45.50. Not a good trend. It should open pretty soon.
Capella
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
1st looked like UBER would open just a little above $45 price, which means fairly properly priced, but may not.
Wonder how much is pricing, market weakness, Lyft unable to hold its opening price, other....
At least it moved up a little after opening. At least for the moment.
Wonder how much is pricing, market weakness, Lyft unable to hold its opening price, other....
At least it moved up a little after opening. At least for the moment.
It is, but last Fall the mistake I made was buying the first dip and not waiting another day or two. I’m ready to pounce. Maybe buy some small bites and if it goes lower some more.
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Some analyst has a 65 dollar target price on it. There’s money to be made there.
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
I believe it. It's only like 6x annual revenue for a company that, what, doubled revenue 2018 vs 2017?
BYND is 45x revenue but did grow more in 2018, still!
-OZ-
Footballguy
Talk me off the ledge. Or don't...
So I've been saving a little cash to buy a vehicle, ended up buying something I'm pretty sure I'll like a lot, for $6000 less than I had budgeted.
Then I took a loan at 3.5% ($20,000)
I'm very tempted to keep the loan and get into options or just buy the dip.
Paying off the loan won't be an issue either monthly or now, but would you gamble with the money or just take the guaranteed return of paying off the loan?
I might wait until later this week, see if the bloodbath continues.
So I've been saving a little cash to buy a vehicle, ended up buying something I'm pretty sure I'll like a lot, for $6000 less than I had budgeted.
Then I took a loan at 3.5% ($20,000)
I'm very tempted to keep the loan and get into options or just buy the dip.
Paying off the loan won't be an issue either monthly or now, but would you gamble with the money or just take the guaranteed return of paying off the loan?
I might wait until later this week, see if the bloodbath continues.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
NREC34
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I also have about 25 years left on a 3.25% mortgage. I've been paying an additional $200/month, not a lot. Think I'll stop that for now, not that .29% is much but it's something.
I just took a 48 month loan.
It's a risk but probably worth taking if this is a buying opportunity. We don't really need the money for another decade.
Cash flow isn't an issue, we invest more than that in non retirement accounts. This would basically be buying now instead of DCA that amount over the next 48 months.
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
What set of facts or analysis tells you there is a buying opportunity on the horizon anytime soon?
-OZ-
Footballguy
Mostly because people are freaking out about China and tariffs. Today seems to be bouncing back a bit.
And then there's the simple history that most of the time (in the past) you'll do better having invested over 4 years than 3.5%
Risk for sure, we're at a high valuation despite recent concerns. So it could flop big.
Hence why I originally called it a gamble.
I’m up almost $7k since I dipped my toes in the water at the end of the day. What I bought is still very long term and still have a sizable % in cash to either follow another dip or reinforce those long term buys.
Just mad I didn’t invest in SWAV sooner. Damn work made me miss it down all the way to $52 early yesterday. I was on vacation when I got alerted to it and it was in the 40s before I really looked into it.
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NREC34
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
So I have analyst contacts in petro and commodities futures. They see huge risks 3-4 years down the road for a complete collapse of the system. Everything in our food supply now is hinging on 3 years of corn followed by 1 year of soybeans. The Cows and whatever eat the corn and the soy we sell to China. Mainly to provide at least a little currency stability, and some export. If they can't sell the soy, then you are looking at a huge spiral where you get the corn farmers in a load of trouble and that has downstream effects through the global economy.
It's a slow fuse now that will only burn brighter starting in 2020 and onwards.
It's a slow fuse now that will only burn brighter starting in 2020 and onwards.
Glad I did. Again these are 5+ year stocks but it definitely made me feel better to get in at a much better price point thanks to Trump. I got screwed on taxes but I’ve made half of that back in a day so not too shabby. Still got a bunch of cash to dive in again if this is just a temporary bounce but I couldn’t just sit and watch anymore on 3 stocks I’ve been eyeing.
Not sure what you mean here. Is the worry that we could have a huge supply of soy that will basically compete with the corn driving down prices for both and that will affect the global economy? Just trying to piece it together.
culdeus
Footballguy
Basically like this:
Farmers run on razor thin margins as it is even with subsidies.
Part of the farm bill and trade bill which we got China to sign off on was they would take soybeans to a point, even though they really didn't need to. It could in their mind free up more land for other stuff and they could put people in factories.
Soybeans are vital to corn farmers because they can only grow corn 3 out of 4 rotations then they have to put something there, options are basically hay, soy, or just let it sit. Soy being a cash crop was free money to these guys. So it was the perfect marriage. It was like the farm bill on steroids.
So china has quit buying soy. Most of it is going in the trash or being turned under right now. So the farmers that are on rotation 1 or 2 are fine, the ones that came into it on rotation 4 are already screwed and
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/u-s-soy-exports-won-t-reach-pre-trade-war-levels-for-years
The downstream effect if this continues on is massive because then it drives up corn->Cows/Pigs/Chickens/Dairy and has downstream effect of pulling hay fields into crop lands etc. Since everything is on futures right now the effect hasn't been seen at the supermarket, but the clock is ticking.
culdeus
Footballguy
Hemp is actually being considered as a cash crop, yes. I don't think THC crops can be grown in fields yet in all states, but not totally sure.
Damn, almost wish I shoved all in. Up almost double what I was earlier. I can live with leaving 40% of my cash in cash based on at least pushing in more than half. I’m sure it’ll drop tomorrow after running up today but I like the stocks I got at a nice discount in the past week or so.
Bonfire
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
hooter311
Footballguy
Everyone and their brother has a CBD company these days.
Window is too small at this point before the big box retailers crush the market.
matuski
Footballguy
I was being sarcastic.Everyone and their brother has a CBD company these days.
Window is too small at this point before the big box retailers crush the market.
bcnfinance
Footballguy
Interesting. Hmmm. So what’s the play?culdeus said:
hooter311
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
It has the potential to upset the currency market. Bigly.
In the short term you won't see consumer staples get hit, but this has the potential to really hammer the CPI down the road and with inflation and with China needing to sell our bonds the fed would be in a really bad spot.
hooter311
Footballguy
Biggest roadblock is you can't advertise on facebook or sell on amazon unless you white label your CBD product as "hemp oil" instead. So you have essentially the same product being sold across the country under completely different names.
I'm a "quality" guy so we went the route of superior ingredients and didn't focus on competing on cost. Made a major mistake of accidentally including the word 'Organic" in our initial corporation filing and had to ditch it immediately to avoid extra red tape with labeling. Prefer to learn trial by fire rather than pay for knowledge.
Initial investment was about 7 months ago, our pet product sales are outpacing for human consumption by about 4 to 1. Other main markets are Seniors and high income millennials. Seems to be hard for people to get on the routine of taking the oil daily even if they are experiencing results. Not seeing the "membership economy" results whatsoever with the human focused oil based products yet.
Used the corporation to buy up a few hundred cbd related domain names, I enjoy starting my days declining offers and responding with 6 figure counters but haven't scored anything yet worth bragging about.
hooter311
Footballguy
BTC.
You don't even need to thank me, would be nice to have more people to toast when I'm on vacation.
hooter311
Footballguy
Hay fields across the midwest were winter killed. Behind on planting for nearly all crops. Milk prices at historic lows. Feeding high priced corn and hay to create low priced milk is going to make this a very hard summer/fall on the ag industry. Work with hundreds of farmers and coudn't name one of them expecting to run in the black this year.
No angle, just empathy for the farmers across the nation.
