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9 minutes ago, culdeus said:

posts that won't age well

The quote was taken from CNBC and the ETA was obviously a joke. 

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20 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

UHEM.  He just got bought out (big $$$) from Phil Ivey.

No Phil Ivey, but the online casinos were extremely generous to me for my efforts.

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On 2/12/2020 at 1:59 PM, kevzilla said:

You blouses and your CYDY. Placed a limit order for TVIX at $39.99. With 20% of my IRA.

I hope this is tongue-in-cheek.

If not, have you learned nothing reading post in here about TVIX?

... and I think you may have purchased my shares of TVIX that I shorted at that price.

... after I just locked in profit shorting from $52.

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14 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I guess.

I could not do a quick real estate  transaction to receive the bulk, so that will remain at risk (to what degree, I have no idea).

Also, I think the cash and precious metals are about as secure as I could get (?)

I am comfortable with the 5% bet on CYDY

If you think I should re-balance the cash and metals, or sell my rent house, please let me know your thoughts.

I appreciate your input

 

 

Spitballin' here.  And the comments are just for free - and worth every penny you pay for them.

#1) The market is bullish.  IMO it would take some time for it to actually turn bearish. By some time, I don't mean hours or days or weeks...I'm talking months.

2) The bull market is extremely over-extended.  By extreme what I mean is I'm of the opinion that there has never been a time if our lives where the market has been this far out of whack in regards to price:value.  Technically - it is what I would consider ripe for some type of correction.  That doesn't mean today is a top.  Or tomorrow.  But I would suggest that soon, it would be "natural" for the market to begin some corrective move - just to get back in-line with the bullish trend.  For example if the $SPY were to drop 20 points...we'd still be WAY over-valued and my opinion wouldn't change.   A 15-20% correction wouldn't move the needle on the LT bull trend.  At these current levels we are in dangerous territory if you care about that 15-20%.

3) I'm $GYPR(ing) to protect and prepare for opportunity if and when the market does decide to come back towards "balance".  It's not a time for panic - sell everything.  Rather a taking a calm perspective with future opportunity in mind.

4) So what to do:  You've got 15% sitting in cash.  Would you consider a hedge type of play on that?  For simplicity you might want to take a look at the ETF $TAIL.  It's a tail risk strategy that invests about 90% in US Treasuries and then out of the $ Puts on the $SPY. In a corrective move investors will tend to flee towards treasuries, volatility will increase (+ value to the puts), and the puts themselves will increase in value.  If we're wrong...$TAIL will  decline, but that loss will be off-set by the increase of your already held long positions.  In addition because the $VIX is pretty low, the timing is decent and $TAIL is pretty cheap.  If and when the corrective moves comes - look to unload at levels of support.  Right now that would be $290ish and $280ish - being attentive if the $SPY were dropping towards those levels and finding the right time for YOU to unload.  This isn't about being perfect.  It's about developing a plan for a "natural" corrective move and following that plan as it unfolds.

5) I'm hesitant to post this type of stuff because if I had my way I'd want "most" of you to make money. (I kid you Trump loving lunatics - I even want you to make money too- I guess that's the "socialist" in me).  Therefore, please do your own due diligence and mostly don't do something stupid because I posted something stupid.

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On 1/30/2020 at 7:04 AM, Bossman said:

anyone buying virus vaccine stocks?

Sold a bunch of NVAX Feb $7 puts .... ... but this one is all over the place. One would think these would expire but it's touch and go here.

....and March $5 puts ... which seems like more free money to me. We'll see.

No one else interested in free money? Just me?

Both the $7 Feb 21 and $5 March Puts were $1 but likely down a bit from there as the stock grew (and we close in on expiration)

I actually wish the $7 puts executed when it dipped below a week ago .... as the stock is closer to $8 now. Would have been a win / win had they been put to me and I held them.

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4 hours ago, skycriesmary said:

Looking at getting into a small oil play at these levels. Why is RBS B so much more beaten up in the last year than CVX or XOM? The dividend is 7.28% compared to 4.61 and 5.73. Obviously, they have better fundamentals, but that's a really sizable difference in the dividend. 

My limited understanding is their massive debt load.

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2 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Spitballin' here.  And the comments are just for free - and worth every penny you pay for them.

#1) The market is bullish.  IMO it would take some time for it to actually turn bearish. By some time, I don't mean hours or days or weeks...I'm talking months.

2) The bull market is extremely over-extended.  By extreme what I mean is I'm of the opinion that there has never been a time if our lives where the market has been this far out of whack in regards to price:value.  Technically - it is what I would consider ripe for some type of correction.  That doesn't mean today is a top.  Or tomorrow.  But I would suggest that soon, it would be "natural" for the market to begin some corrective move - just to get back in-line with the bullish trend.  For example if the $SPY were to drop 20 points...we'd still be WAY over-valued and my opinion wouldn't change.   A 15-20% correction wouldn't move the needle on the LT bull trend.  At these current levels we are in dangerous territory if you care about that 15-20%.

3) I'm $GYPR(ing) to protect and prepare for opportunity if and when the market does decide to come back towards "balance".  It's not a time for panic - sell everything.  Rather a taking a calm perspective with future opportunity in mind.

4) So what to do:  You've got 15% sitting in cash.  Would you consider a hedge type of play on that?  For simplicity you might want to take a look at the ETF $TAIL.  It's a tail risk strategy that invests about 90% in US Treasuries and then out of the $ Puts on the $SPY. In a corrective move investors will tend to flee towards treasuries, volatility will increase (+ value to the puts), and the puts themselves will increase in value.  If we're wrong...$TAIL will  decline, but that loss will be off-set by the increase of your already held long positions.  In addition because the $VIX is pretty low, the timing is decent and $TAIL is pretty cheap.  If and when the corrective moves comes - look to unload at levels of support.  Right now that would be $290ish and $280ish - being attentive if the $SPY were dropping towards those levels and finding the right time for YOU to unload.  This isn't about being perfect.  It's about developing a plan for a "natural" corrective move and following that plan as it unfolds.

5) I'm hesitant to post this type of stuff because if I had my way I'd want "most" of you to make money. (I kid you Trump loving lunatics - I even want you to make money too- I guess that's the "socialist" in me).  Therefore, please do your own due diligence and mostly don't do something stupid because I posted something stupid.

SIFF the dot.com phase in 2000 the PE ratios were north of 30 correct?  Compare that to a PE of 20 now and we are nowhere close to that overvalued.

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5 minutes ago, Bossman said:

No one else interested in free money? Just me?

Both the $7 Feb 21 and $5 March Puts were $1 but likely down a bit from there as the stock grew (and we close in on expiration)

I actually wish the $7 puts executed when it dipped below a week ago .... as the stock is closer to $8 now. Would have been a win / win had they been put to me and I held them.

Thanks for the tip. I plan to look closely at this on Friday morning.

ETA: The bottom fell out of the February $7 puts (trading at about 35cents) and the March puts are very rich (over a buck) but they come right after an earnings announcement. That's a high-risk, low reward trade. I'm not selling those puts.

Edited by pecorino

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Stonks...wait!

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8 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

SIFF the dot.com phase in 2000 the PE ratios were north of 30 correct?  Compare that to a PE of 20 now and we are nowhere close to that overvalued.

I'm a technical observer of market value.  If u think it's cheap,  I say go for it.  I'm comfortable with my take.

 

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1 minute ago, [icon] said:

Stonks...wait!

Did something happen? Pretty benign day. 

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15 minutes ago, pecorino said:

Thanks for the tip. I plan to look closely at this on Friday morning.

ETA: The bottom fell out of the February $7 puts (trading at about 35cents) and the March puts are very rich (over a buck) but they come right after an earnings announcement. That's a high-risk, low reward trade. I'm not selling those puts.

a $1 put on a $7 stock is what I call "juicy".

You can sell 20 Put contracts at $1 ... make $2k profit ... with very little risk because the stock price is so small.

I'm in for 40 ... so $4k between my $7 and $5 contracts. Not making me wealthy like my AMZN stocks but the extra few thousand certainly doesn't hurt my portfolio.

Worst case? NVAX would have to tank to $4 before the March strike ... the stock is put to me ... and at that I still break even.

I don't think a virus vaccine companies stock will be tanking in the next month or two. Just my opinion.

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42 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Spitballin' here.  And the comments are just for free - and worth every penny you pay for them.

#1) The market is bullish.  IMO it would take some time for it to actually turn bearish. By some time, I don't mean hours or days or weeks...I'm talking months.

2) The bull market is extremely over-extended.  By extreme what I mean is I'm of the opinion that there has never been a time if our lives where the market has been this far out of whack in regards to price:value.  Technically - it is what I would consider ripe for some type of correction.  That doesn't mean today is a top.  Or tomorrow.  But I would suggest that soon, it would be "natural" for the market to begin some corrective move - just to get back in-line with the bullish trend.  For example if the $SPY were to drop 20 points...we'd still be WAY over-valued and my opinion wouldn't change.   A 15-20% correction wouldn't move the needle on the LT bull trend.  At these current levels we are in dangerous territory if you care about that 15-20%.

3) I'm $GYPR(ing) to protect and prepare for opportunity if and when the market does decide to come back towards "balance".  It's not a time for panic - sell everything.  Rather a taking a calm perspective with future opportunity in mind.

4) So what to do:  You've got 15% sitting in cash.  Would you consider a hedge type of play on that?  For simplicity you might want to take a look at the ETF $TAIL.  It's a tail risk strategy that invests about 90% in US Treasuries and then out of the $ Puts on the $SPY. In a corrective move investors will tend to flee towards treasuries, volatility will increase (+ value to the puts), and the puts themselves will increase in value.  If we're wrong...$TAIL will  decline, but that loss will be off-set by the increase of your already held long positions.  In addition because the $VIX is pretty low, the timing is decent and $TAIL is pretty cheap.  If and when the corrective moves comes - look to unload at levels of support.  Right now that would be $290ish and $280ish - being attentive if the $SPY were dropping towards those levels and finding the right time for YOU to unload.  This isn't about being perfect.  It's about developing a plan for a "natural" corrective move and following that plan as it unfolds.

5) I'm hesitant to post this type of stuff because if I had my way I'd want "most" of you to make money. (I kid you Trump loving lunatics - I even want you to make money too- I guess that's the "socialist" in me).  Therefore, please do your own due diligence and mostly don't do something stupid because I posted something stupid.

Never heard of $TAIL, seems like an interesting way to hedge without having to directly buy options, will check it out...thanks SIff

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1 hour ago, siffoin said:

Spitballin' here.  And the comments are just for free - and worth every penny you pay for them.

#1) The market is bullish.  IMO it would take some time for it to actually turn bearish. By some time, I don't mean hours or days or weeks...I'm talking months.

2) The bull market is extremely over-extended.  By extreme what I mean is I'm of the opinion that there has never been a time if our lives where the market has been this far out of whack in regards to price:value.  Technically - it is what I would consider ripe for some type of correction.  That doesn't mean today is a top.  Or tomorrow.  But I would suggest that soon, it would be "natural" for the market to begin some corrective move - just to get back in-line with the bullish trend.  For example if the $SPY were to drop 20 points...we'd still be WAY over-valued and my opinion wouldn't change.   A 15-20% correction wouldn't move the needle on the LT bull trend.  At these current levels we are in dangerous territory if you care about that 15-20%.

3) I'm $GYPR(ing) to protect and prepare for opportunity if and when the market does decide to come back towards "balance".  It's not a time for panic - sell everything.  Rather a taking a calm perspective with future opportunity in mind.

4) So what to do:  You've got 15% sitting in cash.  Would you consider a hedge type of play on that?  For simplicity you might want to take a look at the ETF $TAIL.  It's a tail risk strategy that invests about 90% in US Treasuries and then out of the $ Puts on the $SPY. In a corrective move investors will tend to flee towards treasuries, volatility will increase (+ value to the puts), and the puts themselves will increase in value.  If we're wrong...$TAIL will  decline, but that loss will be off-set by the increase of your already held long positions.  In addition because the $VIX is pretty low, the timing is decent and $TAIL is pretty cheap.  If and when the corrective moves comes - look to unload at levels of support.  Right now that would be $290ish and $280ish - being attentive if the $SPY were dropping towards those levels and finding the right time for YOU to unload.  This isn't about being perfect.  It's about developing a plan for a "natural" corrective move and following that plan as it unfolds.

5) I'm hesitant to post this type of stuff because if I had my way I'd want "most" of you to make money. (I kid you Trump loving lunatics - I even want you to make money too- I guess that's the "socialist" in me).  Therefore, please do your own due diligence and mostly don't do something stupid because I posted something stupid.

I'm kind of stupid on a lot of this. By $TAIL do you mean TAIL?

Or am I short selling TAIL?  or what?

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34 minutes ago, djmich said:

Never heard of $TAIL, seems like an interesting way to hedge without having to directly buy options, will check it out...thanks SIff

No ####, how have I never heard of this before.

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13 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I'm kind of stupid on a lot of this. By $TAIL do you mean TAIL?

Or am I short selling TAIL?  or what?

I've been throwing money at Tail most of my life, and I can conclude most of the time it's not a good investment.

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1 hour ago, siffoin said:

I'm a technical observer of market value.  If u think it's cheap,  I say go for it.  I'm comfortable with my take.

 

Gotcha.  I go strictly by fundamentals and not technicals.  By the way I never said it was cheap, it isn't right now.  It just isn't nearly as overvalued as the .com phase with PEs north of 30 and a 10 year Treasury north of 6%.  Today you have a PE of 20 and a 10 year Treasury at 1.60%.  Big big difference.

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37 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

Gotcha.  I go strictly by fundamentals and not technicals.  By the way I never said it was cheap, it isn't right now.  It just isn't nearly as overvalued as the .com phase with PEs north of 30 and a 10 year Treasury north of 6%.  Today you have a PE of 20 and a 10 year Treasury at 1.60%.  Big big difference.

I think I came off as a bit of a #####.  I apologize.  I'm not here to say the market is crashing because I don't believe that.  Perhaps an analogy would be like this.  There is a heavy snow pack,and conditions are ripe for an avalanche.  My work suggests that such conditions are present.  I'm in here telling you that such conditions are present.  It's possible that an avalanche does not occur.  And if an avalanche does not occur it doesn't mean that the conditions were not ripe for one.

I've become quite reluctant to post the type of market work I do because I'm not interested in I-Spats.  It's why I rarely post in here and don't post any charts publicly.  There's some other stuff I really wanted to put out there, but in the end it's not worth the battle with people who are obnoxiously aggressive and arrogant. I do want people to do well, and I think the purpose of my post today was to just give a heads up.  And I'm cool being wrong (my life is a whole lot easier if I am), and not here to argue the position.  But my position remains...this market is over-extended - I can't find a time when it was more.

If you or anyone has a successful investment strategy - my thoughts is stick with that and ignore anything from me.

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1 hour ago, cosjobs said:

I'm kind of stupid on a lot of this. By $TAIL do you mean TAIL?

Or am I short selling TAIL?  or what?

You are buying into the etf.  Here's info.

$TAIL

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1 minute ago, siffoin said:

You are buying into the etf.  Here's info.

$TAIL

Why do you use the $ sign before? 

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1 minute ago, cosjobs said:

Why do you use the $ sign before? 

Denotes a Ticker Symbol.

If I said go buy some TAIL - you might take that to go a strip club.

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7 hours ago, siffoin said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  It's a "process".  I will say this - pulling out 30 year old charts and the market has never been this over-extended - not even close.  1999 looks reasonable to what I'm seeing today.  I see 2 possibilities.

Current market is at about 1 sigma over 30 year run rate.  1999-2000 was a ~3 sigma event.  What do you see right now that gives you specific pause?

Appreciate the input, as always!

Edited by Sand

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1 minute ago, cosjobs said:

Why do you use the $ sign before? 

Can’t answer for him, but it’s standard to put the $ in front of stock tickets when you’re looking for info on Google, Twitter, etc.

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9 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Denotes a Ticker Symbol.

If I said go buy some TAIL - you might take that to go a strip club.

BTW, never heard of TAIL before now.  Interesting item.  I might actually read the prospectus (:sleep:).

I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH.  I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.

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31 minutes ago, Sand said:

Current market is at about 1 sigma over 30 year run rate.  1999-2000 was a ~3 sigma event.  What do you see right now that gives you specific pause?

Appreciate the input, as always!

I'll respond back tomorrow.  

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21 minutes ago, Sand said:

BTW, never heard of TAIL before now.  Interesting item.  I might actually read the prospectus (:sleep:).

I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH.  I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.

Would love to hear whatever conclusion you draw here.

Is 15% enough of a hedge for comfort?

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39 minutes ago, siffoin said:

I think I came off as a bit of a #####.  I apologize.  I'm not here to say the market is crashing because I don't believe that.  Perhaps an analogy would be like this.  There is a heavy snow pack,and conditions are ripe for an avalanche.  My work suggests that such conditions are present.  I'm in here telling you that such conditions are present.  It's possible that an avalanche does not occur.  And if an avalanche does not occur it doesn't mean that the conditions were not ripe for one.

I've become quite reluctant to post the type of market work I do because I'm not interested in I-Spats.  It's why I rarely post in here and don't post any charts publicly.  There's some other stuff I really wanted to put out there, but in the end it's not worth the battle with people who are obnoxiously aggressive and arrogant. I do want people to do well, and I think the purpose of my post today was to just give a heads up.  And I'm cool being wrong (my life is a whole lot easier if I am), and not here to argue the position.  But my position remains...this market is over-extended - I can't find a time when it was more.

If you or anyone has a successful investment strategy - my thoughts is stick with that and ignore anything from me.

There are a significant number of people here who love reading your thoughts and greatly appreciate the time you take to post them.

I started to say don't worry so much about what ipeople think, but that would pretty much render the purpose of my first sentence useless.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

 

Is 15% enough of a hedge for comfort?

This part wasn't directed at sand. Just an additional, misplaced question that came to mind as I was reading.

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1 hour ago, Sand said:

BTW, never heard of TAIL before now.  Interesting item.  I might actually read the prospectus (:sleep:).

I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH.  I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.

Yes.  Understand there are likely better ways to hedge.  But they require a level of complexity.  You might not be able to initiate a trade in $TMF in a Vanguard account...or even Fidelity if you don't sign some form stating you are a high risk investor.  Some folks don't know how to properly utilize options or futures if they even have the ability to trade them.  So the idea for $TAIL is the "everyman's" hedge...something for Cosjobs to research and see if that might provide some protection without going full scale selling of his house/portfolio- especially in the present market environment.  Again - it might not be for everyone...but is an option.

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3 hours ago, Bossman said:

a $1 put on a $7 stock is what I call "juicy".

You can sell 20 Put contracts at $1 ... make $2k profit ... with very little risk because the stock price is so small.

I'm in for 40 ... so $4k between my $7 and $5 contracts. Not making me wealthy like my AMZN stocks but the extra few thousand certainly doesn't hurt my portfolio.

Worst case? NVAX would have to tank to $4 before the March strike ... the stock is put to me ... and at that I still break even.

I don't think a virus vaccine companies stock will be tanking in the next month or two. Just my opinion.

Good luck. I hope it works out for you. As a general rule of thumb, I'm not a seller of puts of speculative companies when it spans an earnings report. Might not seem likely, but a drop below $3 per share is absolutely possible in which case your 2K profit flips to a significant loss on one day if earnings disappoint. I don't know enough about the company to put odds on it. No matter, the odds are probably in your favor on this one. Just not the dice I want to roll on this one. The February puts would have been up my alley but I missed that window earlier this week.

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40 minutes ago, siffoin said:

You might not be able to initiate a trade in $TMF in a Vanguard account...or even Fidelity if you don't sign some form stating you are a high risk investor.  

I'm on Fidelity and I shot all those locks off. :D

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Is 15% enough of a hedge for comfort?

A good question to ask yourself as you try to fall asleep tonight...

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1 hour ago, pecorino said:

Good luck. I hope it works out for you. As a general rule of thumb, I'm not a seller of puts of speculative companies when it spans an earnings report. Might not seem likely, but a drop below $3 per share is absolutely possible in which case your 2K profit flips to a significant loss on one day if earnings disappoint. I don't know enough about the company to put odds on it. No matter, the odds are probably in your favor on this one. Just not the dice I want to roll on this one. The February puts would have been up my alley but I missed that window earlier this week.

Alright, if you like a Feb put then here's one I've been keeping to myself...

AGRX trading above $4 .... selling Feb 21 $2.50 puts at .45 

Fair warning ... about to announce FDA approval on product ... which is why this is so rich with only 8 days to expiration.

Sell 20 put contracts and take the $900.

You put up $4100 to profit $900. That right there is juicy.

Your risk is if FDA does not approve and stock drops below $2.05 ... which I could see this falling to $1.50 in that scenario.

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11 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs in comeback from coronavirus slide

ETA:

Starting to think this Coronavirus is good for the market.

Investors taking their money out of Asian markets are investing it in the US.  That should continue as long as the US avoids large numbers of people infected with Coronavirus.

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Considering adding a large chunk of gold to my portfolio.

Any recommendations as to where I should be looking?

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

.

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Just some information on the possible ramifications of the coronavirus on the global economy.   The four largest economies on the planet are the US, China, Germany and Japan in that order.   We know for a fact that the Chinese economy has been completely stalled by it.   Some experts project that Chinese GDP will drop from a 5-6% growth rate to a -6% growth rate.    The Germans just released numbers that show that their economy has stagnated.   This also would be an indication that the majoirty of the economies in the EU are also probably stagnating.   Japan has already gotten some exposure to the coronavirus--and the number of cases seems to be increasing there.   If this thing manifests into anything of concern in Japan---we're talking about 3 of the 4 worlds biggest economies suffering downturns or treading water.   In a global economy--there is no way that this wouldn't result in some collateral damage.  It's already causing some supply chain issues here.  Our markets have effectively brushed this thing off so far in regards to pricing--and I don't see how this won't catch up at some point . 

There have been many days where our markets are down in the pre-markets as that's when metrics and risk actually play a larger part in being factored in prices--but by the end of the trading day--the market is flat or up.  That's a clear sign that the market is being irrational and being primarily propelled by momentum.  Momentum can only last so long and at some point the markets will have to acknowledge and factor in risk.   This might not happen for a very long while--or it can happen next week--so I don't want to come across as being a fear monger or a pessimist.  I still have a lot of exposure in the market myself -- but I've also been cashing in on some profits. 

Edited by jvdesigns2002
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13 hours ago, Sand said:

A good question to ask yourself as you try to fall asleep tonight...

Is that what the hedge is for? I'm long $WINE for that.

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1 hour ago, Bossman said:

Considering adding a large chunk of gold to my portfolio.

Any recommendations as to where I should be looking?

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

.

GOLD. Their balance sheet has been getting extremely strong, their CEO seems to be quite smart, they just raised their dividend, and they've taken their debt from $12B to $2B in the last 8 years.

If I would've understood the tax ramifications more in depth, I'd have owned them instead of IAU, now I own both as I begin trimming IAU and shifting more of that to GOLD. 

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10 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Just some information on the possible ramifications of the coronavirus on the global economy.   The four largest economies on the planet are the US, China, Germany and Japan in that order.   We know for a fact that the Chinese economy has been completely stalled by it.   Some experts project that Chinese GDP will drop from a 5-6% growth rate to a -6% growth rate.    The Germans just released numbers that show that their economy has stagnated.   This also would be an indication that the majoirty of the economies in the EU are also probably stagnating.   Japan has already gotten some exposure to the coronavirus--and the number of cases seems to be increasing there.   If this thing manifests into anything of concern in Japan---we're talking about 3 of the 4 worlds biggest economies suffering downturns or treading water.   In a global economy--there is no way that this wouldn't result in some collateral damage.  It's already causing some supply chain issues here.  Our markets have effectively brushed this thing off so far in regards to pricing--and I don't see how this won't catch up at some point . 

There have been many days where our markets are down in the pre-markets as that's when metrics and risk actually play a larger part in being factored in prices--but by the end of the trading day--the market is flat or up.  That's a clear sign that the market is being irrational and being primarily propelled by momentum.  Momentum can only last so long and at some point the markets will have to acknowledge and factor in risk.   This might not happen for a very long while--or it can happen next week--so I don't want to come across as being a fear monger or a pessimist.  I still have a lot of exposure in the market myself -- but I've also been cashing in on some profits. 

It's the central banks, it is that simple, imo. 

Here; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL 

So the balance sheet went from $1T to $4T, they tried reducing it, the market tanks, they obviously reverse course, and now we're closing back in on where it was before they tried to normalize ( :lmao: ) it. GREATEST ECONOMY WE'VE EVER SEEN!

You'll notice, when they started pumping it back up again in September to provide liquidity to the repo market (really just covert QE 4), the market started flying again... And wallah, we're up 10% since their pump began. 

#GOLD (they can't print that from thin air)

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11 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

GOLD. Their balance sheet has been getting extremely strong, their CEO seems to be quite smart, they just raised their dividend, and they've taken their debt from $12B to $2B in the last 8 years.

If I would've understood the tax ramifications more in depth, I'd have owned them instead of IAU, now I own both as I begin trimming IAU and shifting more of that to GOLD. 

Had an order in for 600 shares this morning and did not trigger. Revised order for 1000 at the now $1 higher price tag. 

Should have just paid market instead of limit order. Oh well. In it for the long haul anyway.

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Just now, Bossman said:

Had an order in for 600 shares this morning and did not trigger. Revised order for 1000 at the now $1 higher price tag. 

Should have just paid market instead of limit order. Oh well. In it for the long haul anyway.

I was going to buy twice as much as I did when I noted the buy on Monday... I mulled it over and decided I would buy half my position in the low $18s and then DCA. When I looked at the trading range, they looked like they were near the top of it (still are), but I think they might be setting up to break out of that range... Nonetheless, I'm glad I put a nice chunk in, but really, kicking myself for not buying the whole lot. 

Regardless, I feel relatively safe here, while not shielding myself from gains. Honestly, if they keep doing what they're doing, and the FED pumps their balance sheet like I anticipate, I can see this doubling in 5 years. 

To me the biggest risks here are A) substantially higher interest rates B) the Fed turning the printing presses off... I see neither of those likely.

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14 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

It's the central banks, it is that simple, imo. 

Here; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL 

So the balance sheet went from $1T to $4T, they tried reducing it, the market tanks, they obviously reverse course, and now we're closing back in on where it was before they tried to normalize ( :lmao: ) it. GREATEST ECONOMY WE'VE EVER SEEN!

You'll notice, when they started pumping it back up again in September to provide liquidity to the repo market (really just covert QE 4), the market started flying again... And wallah, we're up 10% since their pump began. 

#GOLD (they can't print that from thin air)

Oh I agree. Ive been slowly moving some of my assets into precious metals for many years now.  You and I have been mentioning that play for a while here on this thread.  It’s done me well so far—and I do think that once the market loses some of its momentum from the Coronavirus, once people realize the financial engineering that you brought up from the central bank side, not to mention that there is still a lot of geopolitical risk out there—that something has to give.   I do think that if the market pushes its way past the $30k Dow level, that this possible correction might happen later rather than sooner.  I’m not a chartist by any means..but it seems like anytime the market gets close to that $30k level—it kinda bounces back and reapproaches it again.   That could be a natural resistance level for it to go through—but it also could be a resistance level as a  pseudo-floor should it clear it.  

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3 hours ago, Bossman said:

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

Whoa, back up the truck here.  You mean I can buy myself?

This changes everything.

 

3 hours ago, Bossman said:

Considering adding a large chunk of gold to my portfolio.

Any recommendations as to where I should be looking?

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

As a serious answer I'd probably do something like 25% UGLD, 75% SHY.

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1 hour ago, Bossman said:

Had an order in for 600 shares this morning and did not trigger. Revised order for 1000 at the now $1 higher price tag. 

Should have just paid market instead of limit order. Oh well. In it for the long haul anyway.

Yeah, I was considering it too earlier this week, but already have a bit of GDX and IAU. I'm reluctant to get in now as it's went up 6% just this week. Now if I can get back in around $ 18.50-19? Sure. 

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18 hours ago, siffoin said:

I'll respond back tomorrow.  

Ok.  As I started to think about this - I came to the healthy conclusion that what would be necessary is a Chapter on Siff’s Technical Trading 101.  But who has the time for that and who wants to read my ramblings - No one. So let me begin with a Cliff Notes Version.

  1. Everything I do I’m looking at it from a technical perspective.  Why? Charts don’t lie. People do. So I trust the charts more than I do some analyst. 
  2. I have spent years developing a series of charts and indicators that work for me.  1000’s of hours staring at these charts (likely 10's of 1000's). Because of that, I can easily identify when things seem in or out of order.  I wouldn’t expect anyone else to have the same level of understanding of my charts that I do. Often I look at someone else's charts, I don’t have any clue of their interpretation.  And I realize many people probably feel that same towards my own work. 
  3. My work focuses mostly around TRENDs.  Is $XYZ generally moving up (Bull Trend) or is $XYZ generally moving down (Bear Trend)?  Trends are related to specific Time Frames (TF) too. A TF might be 1 minute (the price movement of $XYZ over a minute = 1 bar print); 1 hour; 1 day; 1 week; 1 month.  I guess you could go out further, but TFs longer than 1 month are of ZERO help to any investor.
  4. The longer the TF the more weight and power it holds.  So a 1 Month TF > 1 Week > 1 Day > 1 Hour > 5 Min > 1 Min.  There can be conflicting trends on the same $XYZ depending on the TF.  IE: The Monthly Trend could be Bullish but the Daily Trend could be Bearish.
  5. Always pay attention to the TF > than the one you are following for your primary investment decision.  What I mean by this is - let’s say $XYZ gives a bear trend (short) signal on an Hourly TF. However, the Daily TF is Bullish.  In this scenario we might expect $XYZ to decline over the next few days (maybe a week or 2), to a support level on the Daily TF.  THAT spot represents a BUY. An aggressive trader might look to profit by shorting $XYZ on the Hourly TF down to the Daily TF Support Level, where he would close the Hourly TF Short position, and go long.  It’s not a game of perfect here. It’s a war that requires patience, skill, attentiveness, and a willingness to get scarred along the way.
  6. Moving Average Lines - represent an average of Price over Time. I use moving average lines as a way to represent Value; Fair Value; and Over Value (That’s a real basic explanation). So 3 Moving Average Lines (MAL).
  7. Price within a TF has a very natural progression.  In simple terms it WANTS to hug around Fair Value. Now in a Bull Trend Price will move up and towards the Over Valued MAL.  That is expected. However when price extends beyond the Over Valued MAL naturally it will want to correct. When it extends far beyond an Over Valued MAL for an extended period of time when the correction comes it is probable to be deeper than a normal correction.  And by correction I’m talking about correcting back to healthy levels of support within the trend. Obviously any correction phase runs the risk of flipping the trend. So imo, the best, healthiest and most profitable moves are when we have a Bull Trend that rises between a Fair Valued and Over Valued MAL - not extending too far above the Over Valued MAL for any length of time and corrective phases are moves back to the Fair Value MAL or just below that.
  8. Whew.  Let’s let that all soak in for a second.
  9. As I explained above.  The Monthly Chart is the One to Rule Them All.  While the Bear Market of 2008-09 bottomed in March 09 - the current Monthly Trend did not confirm  bullish until Dec 2010. However since then - the Bull Trend has remained in tact. Even though there have been corrective periods within that trend. May 2011-Dec 2011; May 2015-Feb 2016; May 2018-Dec 2018 - would all be examples of corrective phases within the current Bull market Trend on a Monthly TF.
  10. Currently, the market is extended far beyond the Over Valued MAL.  Further than it has ever been for the past 30 years. In addition it has hopped above and outside the 10 year Bull Market Channel for the past 3 months (something I’ve never seen).  On top of that there are a variety of cycles that are coming together all suggesting the odds favor a corrective move soonish.
  11. I’m in no way saying if there is a corrective move that it will flip the market to a Bearish Trend.  What I am suggesting is that a corrective move is necessary and healthy in order to maintain the current Bull Trend. And that by recognizing the dangerousness of these current conditions one might better prepare himself for the emotional battle that is potentially on the horizon.  And not only that- profit . Trust me a move down towards $SPY 290ish and lots of people will be ####ting their pants. Corrective moves aren’t fun even when you are on the winning side - at least to me because they bring in the possibility of a LT flip of the market trend (From Bull to Bear).  My life is a hell of a lot easier in a bull trend of extended irrational exuberance. Because I don’t know what the future will bring, I acknowledge I could be wrong. However, my present interpretation of my charts suggests the conditions are ripe for a corrective move sometime in the nearish future, and I’m looking how to protect and preserve my gains without having to panic out of positions if such a move occurs, and have a plan in place if value presents to take advantage of that when most people won’t.
  12. $GYPR is meant as a joke and a heads up.  Basically saying PAY ATTENTION.
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5 hours ago, Bossman said:

Considering adding a large chunk of gold to my portfolio.

Any recommendations as to where I should be looking?

$GOLD / $NEM / $SAND / $FNV ???

.

Added 500 shares of GLD today. I’m risk off for the next 30 days.

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31 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Ok.  As I started to think about this - I came to the healthy conclusion that what would be necessary is a Chapter on Siff’s Technical Trading 101.  But who has the time for that and who wants to read my ramblings - No one. So let me begin with a Cliff Notes Version.

  1. Everything I do I’m looking at it from a technical perspective.  Why? Charts don’t lie. People do. So I trust the charts more than I do some analyst. 
  2. I have spent years developing a series of charts and indicators that work for me.  1000’s of hours staring at these charts (likely 10's of 1000's). Because of that, I can easily identify when things seem in or out of order.  I wouldn’t expect anyone else to have the same level of understanding of my charts that I do. Often I look at someone else's charts, I don’t have any clue of their interpretation.  And I realize many people probably feel that same towards my own work. 
  3. My work focuses mostly around TRENDs.  Is $XYZ generally moving up (Bull Trend) or is $XYZ generally moving down (Bear Trend)?  Trends are related to specific Time Frames (TF) too. A TF might be 1 minute (the price movement of $XYZ over a minute = 1 bar print); 1 hour; 1 day; 1 week; 1 month.  I guess you could go out further, but TFs longer than 1 month are of ZERO help to any investor.
  4. The longer the TF the more weight and power it holds.  So a 1 Month TF > 1 Week > 1 Day > 1 Hour > 5 Min > 1 Min.  There can be conflicting trends on the same $XYZ depending on the TF.  IE: The Monthly Trend could be Bullish but the Daily Trend could be Bearish.
  5. Always pay attention to the TF > than the one you are following for your primary investment decision.  What I mean by this is - let’s say $XYZ gives a bear trend (short) signal on an Hourly TF. However, the Daily TF is Bullish.  In this scenario we might expect $XYZ to decline over the next few days (maybe a week or 2), to a support level on the Daily TF.  THAT spot represents a BUY. An aggressive trader might look to profit by shorting $XYZ on the Hourly TF down to the Daily TF Support Level, where he would close the Hourly TF Short position, and go long.  It’s not a game of perfect here. It’s a war that requires patience, skill, attentiveness, and a willingness to get scarred along the way.
  6. Moving Average Lines - represent an average of Price over Time. I use moving average lines as a way to represent Value; Fair Value; and Over Value (That’s a real basic explanation). So 3 Moving Average Lines (MAL).
  7. Price within a TF has a very natural progression.  In simple terms it WANTS to hug around Fair Value. Now in a Bull Trend Price will move up and towards the Over Valued MAL.  That is expected. However when price extends beyond the Over Valued MAL naturally it will want to correct. When it extends far beyond an Over Valued MAL for an extended period of time when the correction comes it is probable to be deeper than a normal correction.  And by correction I’m talking about correcting back to healthy levels of support within the trend. Obviously any correction phase runs the risk of flipping the trend. So imo, the best, healthiest and most profitable moves are when we have a Bull Trend that rises between a Fair Valued and Over Valued MAL - not extending too far above the Over Valued MAL for any length of time and corrective phases are moves back to the Fair Value MAL or just below that.
  8. Whew.  Let’s let that all soak in for a second.
  9. As I explained above.  The Monthly Chart is the One to Rule Them All.  While the Bear Market of 2008-09 bottomed in March 09 - the current Monthly Trend did not confirm  bullish until Dec 2010. However since then - the Bull Trend has remained in tact. Even though there have been corrective periods within that trend. May 2011-Dec 2011; May 2015-Feb 2016; May 2018-Dec 2018 - would all be examples of corrective phases within the current Bull market Trend on a Monthly TF.
  10. Currently, the market is extended far beyond the Over Valued MAL.  Further than it has ever been for the past 30 years. In addition it has hopped above and outside the 10 year Bull Market Channel for the past 3 months (something I’ve never seen).  On top of that there are a variety of cycles that are coming together all suggesting the odds favor a corrective move soonish.
  11. I’m in no way saying if there is a corrective move that it will flip the market to a Bearish Trend.  What I am suggesting is that a corrective move is necessary and healthy in order to maintain the current Bull Trend. And that by recognizing the dangerousness of these current conditions one might better prepare himself for the emotional battle that is potentially on the horizon.  And not only that- profit . Trust me a move down towards $SPY 290ish and lots of people will be ####ting their pants. Corrective moves aren’t fun even when you are on the winning side - at least to me because they bring in the possibility of a LT flip of the market trend (From Bull to Bear).  My life is a hell of a lot easier in a bull trend of extended irrational exuberance. Because I don’t know what the future will bring, I acknowledge I could be wrong. However, my present interpretation of my charts suggests the conditions are ripe for a corrective move sometime in the nearish future, and I’m looking how to protect and preserve my gains without having to panic out of positions if such a move occurs, and have a plan in place if value presents to take advantage of that when most people won’t.
  12. $GYPR is meant as a joke and a heads up.  Basically saying PAY ATTENTION.

This is why I ####### love FBG’s.  Never in a million years would one expect to get posts like this from a make believe football site!   

I’m going to need to reread this a few times to wrap my head around it but thank you sif for taking the time to post it and letting us crawl around in your thought process for a bit.  

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1 hour ago, Gawain said:

Added 500 shares of GLD today. I’m risk off for the next 30 days.

I had a boat load of cash sitting on the sidelines and after reading COS portfolio decided to get some gold.

Turns out today was a day late. "Revised" Limit order still hasn't triggered. I'll wait for a better entry point ... if there ever is one.

Edited by Bossman
"Revised"

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1 hour ago, chet said:

Adding 20-40K CYDY every day.  

You a board member yet?

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