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Stock Thread (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Macau casinos have reopened by I guess.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/24/how-macau-could-save-las-vegas-casino-stocks.aspx
I got it from this article but looking back at historical charts it must have been a pretty short-lived rally (I definitely can't remember back that far accurately.) Stocks topped in the summer of '07, things started imploding in late August to Sept. of '07 and by spring-summer of '08 we were seeing a bear market rally. By the time TARP was passed in Oct of '08 the market was already on its way back down which would last for almost a year.
Maybe the author meant to say the 2008 stimulus checks? That legislation was passed in Feb of '08 and the stock market did rally for about 3 months after that before it started to crater again in June. Interestingly, the studies done on those stimulus checks showed that something like 20% of people actually spent the money, a third saved the money and the rest used it to pay off debt. In my case I saved it at the time.
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Todem
Footballguy
The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.
Well after Tarp passed.
If anyone here thinks we are not retesting the lows of March 23rd 2020 you have not been in the market long enough.
Just my opinion.
This is a stock pickers market to the extreme. This is where professionals earn their fees (like me).
I have been managing wealth professionally since 1998 (for myself since 1987).
Buy on bad bad days. We will have more.
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Bear market rally peaked sometime around April or May of '08 as I recall (sounds like you can be more precise than myself), so the next leg down lasted almost a year or so with TARP kind of in the middle. The Feb '08 lows weren't retested and broken until like summer of '08 IIRC with the bottom coming the following March as you stated.
Sand
Footballguy
Definitely feeling FOMO right now as this explodes back up. Market is right at about when I dropped out. I figure if I jump back in the market will take it as a sign to drive off a cliff. With the numbers we're seeing and the economic paralysis that is sure to spread through metropolitan areas I just don't see how this is over, by any stretch.
Or I'll just lose out and have to add a few years to my employment end date due to all this and improper decision making. Most likely possibility through all this.
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Insoxicated
Okay... how long do you think this exogenous event will exert negative pressure on the market?
Man In The Box
Footballguy
gruecd
Footballguy
Hard to say. "The bottom" is usually a process and not an event. I wouldn't be surprised to see us re-rest the recent lows, but I doubt we go back down much further than that.
Todem
Footballguy
Sand....sit tight. You will have a great chance to jump back in. But this is the pitfalls of panic. I don’t have to lecture you.
So let’s talk positives.
The market will drop again. And it will happen over the next few weeks easily. I will be posting here when I deploy what is left of the cash I accumulated at the start of this downturn. When I go all in for my clients it means I am confident that we probably are near a bottom. And even if we go lower....we won’t stay there a long time.
To answer @[icon]
IMO we will need anywhere from 10-18 months to get out of the recession we are about to enter. Of course.....this is a base case scenario. We do not know how deep this virus will go. No one does. But this is where my head is currently at.
It is a tough call, no doubt.
I just feel highly confident we will be able to flatten the curve going into the summer, our incredible medical community will find ways to aggressively treat people with the virus, and at some point we will develop a vaccine (god willing).
Bottom line for me is.....what will we look like in 3-5-10 years.
That is always a positive picture for me.
Look at the moves this week. Like we have been talking about.....the speed of the market is in a place it never was back in 2008. As easily as we went down 37% from the top......we are back 20% of that in three freaking days.
Mind-blowing speed.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Soooooooo, if others are being greedy.........
Sand
Footballguy
Haven't even come close to hitting a buy button. And really not much left to sell.
So... Sitting. Not comfortably, but sitting.
And grousing. I'm an expert at that.
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Todem
Footballguy
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
also didn't have a cold oil war going on in 2009.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Did I mention the Fed's balance sheet was 4x smaller in 2009?
I assume that includes the completely clueless who have most of their $ parked in the safest option in their 401k. They ahve no idea what fund they shouldb e in for max gains. Trust me there are millions like that. In fact, probably the majority so this is not a surprise.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Gregory Mannarino has been saying this nonstop for a week or two now. But I'm new to this, so I have no idea what kind of industry clout he has.
I have no idea but I do know this: If a magical cure or even a proven treatment happens, we are off and running, everyone is getting rehired. Crappy companies will screw their employees who will go work for better companies. The crappy companies who screwed their employees will then get the new craptastic employees they deserve.
imo, that is why the "we must retest the bottom" is not guaranteed.
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah.....I simply replied to those predictions as “ok man"Those waiting for sub 2k on NAZ are going to watch this train leave the station and this is what they will look like.
The guy who said he was waiting for S&P 1400-1600 is this:
Just from a valuation perspective I was like.....come on man.
Capella
Footballguy
Every single person I’ve talked to in the last few weeks has parked it in their safe 2% fund. Every. Single. One.
Man, that is sad but not a surprise. They buy like mad at the top and curl up in the fetal position at the bottom.
Polish Hammer
made of glass
Inherited a few Vanguard funds that I'll need to withdraw within 10 years. Currently allocation looks like this:
GNMA Fund Admiral - 10%
Wellesley Income Fund Admiral - 45%
Wellington Fund Admiral - 37%
Windsor II Fund Admiral - 8%
Should there be any moving around that makes sense based on current market? Want to grow these as much as reasonably possible in the next 4 years, then will withdraw (possibly to fund part of kids' college) over final 6.
GNMA Fund Admiral - 10%
Wellesley Income Fund Admiral - 45%
Wellington Fund Admiral - 37%
Windsor II Fund Admiral - 8%
Should there be any moving around that makes sense based on current market? Want to grow these as much as reasonably possible in the next 4 years, then will withdraw (possibly to fund part of kids' college) over final 6.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The world is literally closed right now. The truth is, while everyone is itching to get going, we have no real idea when it will happen. It took 2 months in China where they have tigers roaming the street to keep quarantines and shelters strict. With our half ### measures in comparison, it'll take a long time to work through the population, not to mention consumer confidence will be #### for a very long time.Those waiting for sub 2k on NAZ are going to watch this train leave the station and this is what they will look like.
The guy who said he was waiting for S&P 1400-1600 is this:
That V is going to collapse into a sea of misery.
Man, who knows but MGM getting to 15 that quick tells me if I can get it back a little lower than what I sold it at, I'll be happy.
The easiest $ has been made. How do I know this? I suck at trading in my gambling account and I raked in over 30% this week.
See ACB. Yeah I bought at like 2 I think.
Mostly agree and this currently can be referred to a DCB but we wont know it was for sure until after the fact. I lean towards that myself.
As far as the bolded. This is USA circa 2020, not the depression era. My dad was alive during that and he still pinches pennies. Do not underestimate how quickly this current generation will forget this even happened and go right back to buying. They have been given a $1200 lifeline so far and if they get back to work in the next couple of months, they will believe that is how it will always work. Thus back to spending beyond their means.
Consumer confidence will snap back a lot faster than you think. The logical person would think 'I better save for the next time'. If that were to happen it will be a slow recovery. It won't. Even if they saved for a while, they will look at that $ sitting in the bank doing nothing and will tap it down to zero. Today's human will say, I'll get bailed out next time too.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
How does unlimited QE from the Fed play into this? Can the market even tank 5-10% in a day or multiple days in a row with the Fed able to just throw money at it any time it starts looking bad?
Random
Footballguy
At what point would you concede and put the money back in higher? A particular event (vaccine), or amount of time (months without retesting the low), or new high? Or are you willing to sit on it infinitely?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
That's sad because most of them will not get it back out in time, or even at all, to have the retirement they wanted. Of course the people close to retirement will fair better.
ETA: Sorry, read this as they pulled it out of other funds recently. If you mean they have it in 2% all the time, yikes.
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Capella
Footballguy
I told them the other day that I was buying and this is probably the greatest buying opp of our life and they legit said I was crazy.
Some people get rich and some people don’t. This was a group of 6 people including me.
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Capella
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
The Fed will throw money at it spurts. But no it can’t just keep doing this all time. I do not see unlimited QE. They simply can’t do that. The approach is this is not lasting a whole lot longer. They have backstopped credit markets and the treasuries. They are doing a great job right now. They got out in front of this.
What some people are saying.....is it will (last a whole lot longer). Those are the people who will miss it....again. There are people who got out in 2008 and never got back in.....and those same people are sitting here today....still paralyzed to get in. Stocks are again on a fire sale.
This is why the average retail investor averages less than 2% a year.
TIME IN THE MARKET not timing the market. Yes I am sitting here talking about re-tests and when to buy. But that is only with the cash I have left. We never got all the way out. But we did sell into the first rally off the first sell off some 3.5 weeks ago.
I am only sitting on 12-13% cash (had 25%). We bought in on 3/16, 3/18 and 3/23 That is all we have done so far. Those were the worst days and when fear was at it’s peak.
So we are participating in these rallies. I never go 100% cash.......the most cash I ever went to was 50% in summer 2008. That was something we were foreseeing. I worked at Bank of America back then. I sat on a CFO conference call in March 2008 and what I heard mortified me and I immediately sold all bank stocks to start with. I mean all of them. Including what I had in my 401K (60ish price range at that time) BOFA stock has never sniffed those levels since. We went all the way back in late February 2009 (missed the absolute bottom in March but again no one rings a bell for us at the top or bottom).
My point is.....this virus....no one could have seen this. This is a unique event but a far different one in many ways. So many unknowns with numbers being thrown around both socially and economically.
But the one known thing is......long term we will survive, recover and prosper once again. You buy stocks today with that hope of tomorrow in the long term. You can’t think now. You gotta think 5 and 10 years from now.
For my retired clients.....they already understood the risk of reaching for yield. Yield (interest rates) ar a measure of risk.....not return. People that are retired are in a different place.
But what about those that are near retirement? This was unprecedented. Because it was not something anyone could have seen. So retirement may have to be put off for another 12,18 or 24 months for some. All depends on income expectations. Some can still retire right now as long as they accept some volatility in earning those yields that are still attainable. In fact a lot of them selling at a deep discount (AT&T for example.....incredible long term value for that strong dividend). Hence why I was buying that on 3/23 hand over fist for everyone.
Sorry for the long winded response......but I can get on tangents. I love my work.
Todem
Footballguy
I am going to concede the rest of my cash in the next two weeks. My partner and I have been discussing this at length everyday. We expect to see the worst numbers of the virus and all the bearish economic pundits pounding the table next week and the week after. I would be mildly surprised if we do not see at least another 10% sell off. I say at least. It could be more. Once that starts next week we start nibbling in till the rest of the cash is gone and go long as usual.
No way I ever sit paralyzed. God no.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
No it hasn't, but if you bravely got back in when BOA was $3.75 and then $4.50, you did pretty, pretty well. I have a buddy that literally put a large down payment on a large house just from BOA proceeds. Similar to BA these days.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I could be a little early, I’m prepared for some pain, but I’m selling YM here at 22k
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Bought in a little on 3/18. Should have done a little more around then. Hoping to get one more pass at SP 2400 or a little less.
Todem
Footballguy
I made a boatload getting out at 60....buying BA at 25 bucks buying Dow Chemical at 5.50 Buying ASH at 9.00
Look up where those went LOL. And that is just a few. It was a buffet like we are seeing this past week!!!! That is what I am talking about!!!!!
And yes I l went in at $2.75 a share but I bought a lot more of other sectors and stocks. It was a scary yet amazing time to be investing. Much like today.
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Big League Chew
Footballguy
do you guys use a script or automated buy-now option when a specific threshold is met?
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Not adding anymore on long positions until I feel this has settled (which I have no confidence that is has). Have the ones I want to keep that I'm not selling no matter what happens and will look to add and buy others when this inevitably goes lower.
Short term looking to make some $$$ on puts so i have added to some of those positions today.
