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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

Personally, I don't think anyone is buying CYDY at $2.5 looking for $3.5. It can certainly go right back to $1, but it can go to $4 just as fast. If you want to get on the ride, just do so with the thought process of being okay if it tanks and happy if it moons. Expect huge swings up and down and be able to ignore the noise. 

Think about it like this if you're on the fence. If it is $3.35 next week, would you get impatient and just buy? If it falls to $1, would you hate yourself and sell? Put some thought into these questions before making a decision. 

 
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commoncents said:
Just wanted to bump this for those who may have missed this amidst the CYDY mania. The oil contango is a bonanza that the market hasn't fully caught up to this, but it has with the decent pop this past week. There still is ample room for the industry to run. The oil glut is here to stay for a while.

Tanker rates rise
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:goodposting:

I ended up with all of these last week:


FRO

DHT

TK

NAT

STNG

DSSI

TNP

EURN

INSW

TNK
Not sure how long I want to carry a full basket like this. But it has been interesting to watch. Listened to a talk this morning with this gal and she is thinking there is still room for the trade to run a bit.



 
fantasycurse42 said:
Personally, I don't think anyone is buying CYDY at $2.5 looking for $3.5. It can certainly go right back to $1, but it can go to $4 just as fast. If you want to get on the ride, just do so with the thought process of being okay if it tanks and happy if it moons. Expect huge swings up and down and be able to ignore the noise. 

Think about it like this if you're on the fence. If it is $3.35 next week, would you get impatient and just buy? If it falls to $1, would you hate yourself and sell? Put some thought into these questions before making a decision. 
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I bought 500 at $1 figuring I'd gamble.. I know next to nothing about the stock market, was just going by what Chet posted..  I'm not a big shooter like most FBGs, but figured I could lose $500 and it wouldn't hurt..  I was tempted to sell off today and take my money and run.. the blackjack/poker player in me said to cash out.. But I'm in for the long haul.. Congrats to all you guys with deep pockets that bought a bunch..

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Personally, I don't think anyone is buying CYDY at $2.5 looking for $3.5. It can certainly go right back to $1, but it can go to $4 just as fast. If you want to get on the ride, just do so with the thought process of being okay if it tanks and happy if it moons. Expect huge swings up and down and be able to ignore the noise. 

Think about it like this if you're on the fence. If it is $3.35 next week, would you get impatient and just buy? If it falls to $1, would you hate yourself and sell? Put some thought into these questions before making a decision. 
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I just wait for the @chet Bat-signal.

 
Sputnikv8 said:
Unemployment may hit 32% says the Fed?  Markets up nearly 700.   :loco:
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The market is out of touch at this juncture.  If only it were just unemployment.  Know 3 people personally that have been asked to take pay cuts at their jobs and will never hit the unemployment line.  They will cut back on spending and contributions to offset this.  This story is being played out across the country.

We are in for another big dip IMO and don't think its going to be quick to bounce back.

edit: i since i quoted here, i actually don't think we will hit 32% unemployment but do think a good number of people are seeing their pay reduced

 
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I agree with the prior two posts. In fact I think one more up day, like on Tuesday, will inspire me to sell some of what I bought recently to generate more cash and prepare for the second wave of the bear.

 
Sputnikv8 said:
Unemployment may hit 32% says the Fed?  Markets up nearly 700.   :loco:
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These are crazy numbers being thrown around. The peak Great Depression unemployment was 24.9% according to the yearly chart that I looked at. Outside of the years of the Great Depression, 1982 was the only year over 10% and it was just over. This won’t last 10 years like the Great Depression.

 
stbugs said:
These are crazy numbers being thrown around. The peak Great Depression unemployment was 24.9% according to the yearly chart that I looked at. Outside of the years of the Great Depression, 1982 was the only year over 10% and it was just over. This won’t last 10 years like the Great Depression.
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Would not be surprised if the FED is over exaggerating the number on purpose so that any number that comes out looks good. It's what they do.

 
todem thanks for all the advice in here you are a good egg even if you love the heat way too much take that to the bank bromigo

 
so nice day today but is this a v or a w i think its a w but when do we get a big down day again i think unemployment gets realeased next week does that do it or what take that to the bank brohans 

 
Capella said:
From what I can tell the S&P is only down about 17% for the year. That was...sudden. 
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Makes ya wonder why the stock market would ever go down, like ever.  

Entire county and most of the world at a complete standstill and we skyrocketed 20% in a week, and as you said we are only like 15% down from all time higher after the longest bull run ever.

Hmmmmmm

 
kevzilla said:
Folks that bought casino stocks last Monday have made out pretty well. They should probably consider taking profits.
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I was watching MGM pullback today, you think that ship has sailed if you didn’t get in at the low?

Trimmed 1/3 of my CYDY today, after being upside down hard not to take some profits. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
Makes ya wonder why the stock market would ever go down, like ever.  

Entire county and most of the world at a complete standstill and we skyrocketed 20% in a week, and as you said we are only like 15% down from all time higher after the longest bull run ever.

Hmmmmmm
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I just can't see how this doesn't retest lows or we're just in for a sideways market for a while. The market is always forward looking and you can argue one year of earnings is worth what 5-10% of a stock price? Maybe less. Add in that the Fed seems ready and willing to do whatever and guess you get this rally. 

But man, we're not even out of the virus yet. Economic data is going to be devastating. I mean can algo trading even handle the shock in economic data? Then we have the over-levered corporate balance sheets. On top of valuations already frothy. 

 
The other problem with casino stocks is we're in a recession. So even when we rebound, it's unlikely casinos are going to rebound as fast as the broader economy. I doubt the first thing people do is go back to the casinos especially since they'll be behind on bills. Perhaps I'm wrong and it's a v-shaped recovery but I doubt it. MGM is also likely to get hit by the cancellation of conferences and company trips to Vegas which will likely continue as those companies look to cut costs for the rest of the year. 

 
sporthenry said:
The other problem with casino stocks is we're in a recession. So even when we rebound, it's unlikely casinos are going to rebound as fast as the broader economy. I doubt the first thing people do is go back to the casinos especially since they'll be behind on bills. Perhaps I'm wrong and it's a v-shaped recovery but I doubt it. MGM is also likely to get hit by the cancellation of conferences and company trips to Vegas which will likely continue as those companies look to cut costs for the rest of the year. 
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Actually, gambling usually sees an uptick during hard times. 

I still wouldn't touch any brick and mortar casinos for a while.

 
sporthenry said:
The other problem with casino stocks is we're in a recession. So even when we rebound, it's unlikely casinos are going to rebound as fast as the broader economy. I doubt the first thing people do is go back to the casinos especially since they'll be behind on bills. Perhaps I'm wrong and it's a v-shaped recovery but I doubt it. MGM is also likely to get hit by the cancellation of conferences and company trips to Vegas which will likely continue as those companies look to cut costs for the rest of the year. 
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Really want to play some craps right now :D  

 
sporthenry said:
The other problem with casino stocks is we're in a recession. So even when we rebound, it's unlikely casinos are going to rebound as fast as the broader economy. I doubt the first thing people do is go back to the casinos especially since they'll be behind on bills. Perhaps I'm wrong and it's a v-shaped recovery but I doubt it. MGM is also likely to get hit by the cancellation of conferences and company trips to Vegas which will likely continue as those companies look to cut costs for the rest of the year. 
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This is more than fair.  Counterarguement for MGM - they have a #### load of cash on hand to the point that you can say they aren’t going out of business and are trading at a ~70% discount to the 52 week high

 
sporthenry said:
The other problem with casino stocks is we're in a recession. So even when we rebound, it's unlikely casinos are going to rebound as fast as the broader economy. I doubt the first thing people do is go back to the casinos especially since they'll be behind on bills. Perhaps I'm wrong and it's a v-shaped recovery but I doubt it. MGM is also likely to get hit by the cancellation of conferences and company trips to Vegas which will likely continue as those companies look to cut costs for the rest of the year. 
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Good point on the conferences, not sure when those make a come back.  

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Good point on the conferences, not sure when those make a come back.  
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Being that group meetings/parties is my business (weddings, Corp events, etc) I can tell you we’re very worried about the short to mid-term   Even when the stay at home stuff gets loosened up the group get togethers are going to likely be limited far longer.  And that doesn’t even address the financial aspect of it (people or companies ability to do said events).  

 
The Ref said:
This is more than fair.  Counterarguement for MGM - they have a #### load of cash on hand to the point that you can say they aren’t going out of business and are trading at a ~70% discount to the 52 week high
Click to expand...
They don't exactly have a #### load of cash though. Their burn rate is about $14m per day and they have about 9 months in reserves. I'm also guessing that they had planned to use those reserves for a license and construction of a casino in Japan after selling some properties. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/las-vegas-casino-companies-burning-up-to-14-4m-a-day-report-finds-1989791/amp/

 
The Ref said:
This is more than fair.  Counterarguement for MGM - they have a #### load of cash on hand to the point that you can say they aren’t going out of business and are trading at a ~70% discount to the 52 week high
Click to expand...
Fair point. I haven't looked at the casino stocks in a bit. I was getting up to speed on MGM a bit but it was honestly too many moving parts with all the leases, MGP being consolidated, etc. I don't think they're filing because of that cash and they have $1.5bn available under its revolver. I just hate the move towards sale-leasebacks in general by casinos. Financial engineering at its finest. So want to see what their valuation looks like versus the rest of casino stocks. I just think between their debt and lease payments, the cash going out the door is pretty high. My favorite casino stock is RRR, it's a Las Vegas Locals play, limited lease amounts. Been smoked because it's small. I'm just worried about a recession in LV which would hit them more than the regionals. But even then, I'd probably prefer ERI to MGM although they're dealing with a lot. 

I know someone mentioned GLPI earlier, I'd much rather own MGM's own REIT, MGP. Not only does MGM own 70% of MGP so you're aligned with them but much better counterparty than PENN who I think is going to file and am actively short. 

 
The Ref said:
This is more than fair.  Counterarguement for MGM - they have a #### load of cash on hand to the point that you can say they aren’t going out of business and are trading at a ~70% discount to the 52 week high
Click to expand...
Yeah again when you are only thinking a year out.....your not investing. When your thinking 2-3 years out....now your talking. This stock (MGM) is heavily discounted and taking into account all the concerns people have......short term. 

If you go long.....your going to have a double. If you keep trying to time things.....you miss the boat. 

I am long. Long on everything. I am taking into account a recession. I don’t care about the next year. I care about the next 3, 5 and 10 years. 

 
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sporthenry said:
Fair point. I haven't looked at the casino stocks in a bit. I was getting up to speed on MGM a bit but it was honestly too many moving parts with all the leases, MGP being consolidated, etc. I don't think they're filing because of that cash and they have $1.5bn available under its revolver. I just hate the move towards sale-leasebacks in general by casinos. Financial engineering at its finest. So want to see what their valuation looks like versus the rest of casino stocks. I just think between their debt and lease payments, the cash going out the door is pretty high. My favorite casino stock is RRR, it's a Las Vegas Locals play, limited lease amounts. Been smoked because it's small. I'm just worried about a recession in LV which would hit them more than the regionals. But even then, I'd probably prefer ERI to MGM although they're dealing with a lot. 

I know someone mentioned GLPI earlier, I'd much rather own MGM's own REIT, MGP. Not only does MGM own 70% of MGP so you're aligned with them but much better counterparty than PENN who I think is going to file and am actively short. 
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GLPI is in incredible shape. That is going to be fine........long term. 

I think you will eventually be covering your shorts on Penn in a squeeze. 

I also think some people are way over estimating how human behavior is changing forever. Its not. 

People will get back to traveling, flying, going to Vegas....all of it. 

 
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Todem said:
GLPI is in incredible shape. That is going to be fine........long term. 

I think you will eventually be covering your shorts on Penn in a squeeze. 

I also think some people are way over estimating how human behavior is changing forever. Its not. 

People will get back to traveling, flying, going to Vegas....all of it. 
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Sure but when?  Not in 2020. COVID will still be ‘out there’ for another year. 

 
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Todem said:
GLPI is in incredible shape. That is going to be fine........long term. 

I think you will eventually be covering your shorts on Penn in a squeeze. 

I also think some people are way over estimating how human behavior is changing forever. Its not. 

People will get back to traveling, flying, going to Vegas....all of it. 
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PENN already had its dead cat bounce. They had $437mn in cash as of 12/31. Drew down $430mn on their revolver and spent $135mn on Barstool so call it ~$732mn in liquidity. They entered the year with $1.1bn in obligations for 2020 including $900mn in cash lease payments and $100mn in interest. The Trop sale saves them $338mn in rental payments so that does help but it's their last lever. But you said it yourself, they acquired it for less than PENN paid in 2015. Why do you think that was? Because PENN is a forced seller. 

I mean look at the bond market. PENN bonds have rebounded from the $50s but still trading in the $70s, $10-$20 and 200-300 bps wide of the rest of the casinos. The Trop transaction might give them enough to get through so maybe I go long a RRR or ERI to compensate but I'm very happy to be long a casino stock vs PENN. 

GLPI isn't going bankrupt. But there is a chance their biggest lessee goes bankrupt and they have to recut the lease which would hit earnings.  

 
I love these investment websites where you read 1000 words about why X stock is a good buy.

Then at the bottom there is clickbait titled "4 STOCKS WE LIKE BETTER THAN X".. :lmao:

 
CR69 said:
Just between Macy's, Kohls and Gap there were about 350,000 people furloughed today. You can't tell me this is already priced in and we've seen the bottom. Well you could but I wouldn't believe it lol. 
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Kohl's is at a P/E of 3.65 and 18% dividend.  Obviously those won't hold, but if your looking 1-2 years out and think they can get back to where they were, it's an easy 2.5-3x up IMO.

 
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