What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Stock Thread (10 Viewers)

Charlie Harper said:
Read a Bloomberg post that none of the companies in the S&P 500 are down over 10 weeks. Crazy.

Note to self. Picked listed companies.
Click to expand...
Bankrupt companies or companies being delisted are up 125% the past 5 weeks.

Note to self. People will buy anything when it gets a bit irrational.

Honestly, I can’t see how you can be an investor and not be concerned. I know stonks only go up and I’ve certainly benefited. The only mistakes I’ve made are actually not buying more at the bottom and selling a couple stocks where I owned too much to be comfortable.

 
stbugs said:
Bankrupt companies or companies being delisted are up 125% the past 5 weeks.

Note to self. People will buy anything when it gets a bit irrational.

Honestly, I can’t see how you can be an investor and not be concerned. I know stonks only go up and I’ve certainly benefited. The only mistakes I’ve made are actually not buying more at the bottom and selling a couple stocks where I owned too much to be comfortable.
Click to expand...
Concerned, perhaps. But as I'm not using any of this money for over a decade, I'm not that concerned. 

beef said:
S&P 500 trading at its highest multiple since 2001.
Click to expand...
It's a good thing nothing happened in 2001 to get people concerned about travel or mass entertainment venues.

 
RevShark stock of the week: BXRX. Keeping a close eye on this one.

Our Stock of the Week is Baudax Bio (BXRX). This is a small, ‘under the radar’ biotechnology name that is in the process of launching a non-opioid painkiller called Anjeso. Anjeso is used primarily for post-surgery applications.

The company is expected to have 50 sales representatives start making calls starting in early June. Target customers are 1400 hospitals and 550 ambulatory surgery centers.

The COVID-19 crisis has caused some issues for the company and may delay some sales. In addition, the breakdown in the market in February pushed the company to raise cash at a poor time and may have resulted in more dilution that would otherwise be the case. The company raised an additional $50 million credit facility on June 1 so it should be in good shape as far as liquidity.

On May 15, JMP Securities initiated the stock with a $13 target and stated that Anjesco is an ‘important addition to surgical pain management’ and that there should be ‘strong market traction’. Oppenheimer has a $14 target on the stock.

Technically, the stock has been forming some support in the $4 area as it awaits for early information on its sales efforts. The stock has good support down to the 50-day simple moving average over $3.

This stock is more of a value play than a momentum play and may require some patience as it develops. As always we would not chase strength on Monday morning but would look for an entry on either a lower volume pullback or on a strong close on increased volume.
Click to expand...

 
beef said:
It was a CNBC new headline that came across my feed.  Stocks have not been this expensive in 19 years — what to watch now
Click to expand...
S&P 500 - 3210

If forward earnings are $145 then forward PE is 22.13.  

At the start of the year the average expected earnings of analysts was $172.  On April 15th it was $132.  

If we simply use 2019 earnings of $163 it gives you a PE of 19.69.  With a 10 year under 1% that is reasonable.

The Equity Risk Premium of .0420 is above the historical average of .0350.  This means stocks are undervalued when taking into account what interest rates are.

 
-OZ- said:
Concerned, perhaps. But as I'm not using any of this money for over a decade, I'm not that concerned. 

It's a good thing nothing happened in 2001 to get people concerned about travel or mass entertainment venues.
Click to expand...
I’m not long term concerned either and I honestly haven’t done any trading outside of stocks I want to keep for years based on today. Only CYDY is a bit shorter term. That said, it feels very frothy to me.

Also, sorry but 9/11 was nothing like this. Airlines were shut down for all of a couple days? Business travel wasn’t gone for months and it sure had 0 impact on the economy itself. GDP didn’t dive and unemployment didn’t skyrocket. Sure, stocks took a bit of a hit, but the dot com bubble had way more to do with the stock market taking a hit than 9/11, which was extremely short term.

 
stbugs said:
I’m not long term concerned either and I honestly haven’t done any trading outside of stocks I want to keep for years based on today. Only CYDY is a bit shorter term. That said, it feels very frothy to me.

Also, sorry but 9/11 was nothing like this. Airlines were shut down for all of a couple days? Business travel wasn’t gone for months and it sure had 0 impact on the economy itself. GDP didn’t dive and unemployment didn’t skyrocket. Sure, stocks took a bit of a hit, but the dot com bubble had way more to do with the stock market taking a hit than 9/11, which was extremely short term.
Click to expand...
They're not identical but there are similarities.  9/11 definitely had an impact on travel, fear, and a HUGE increase in government spending. Just to name a few ways these are similar. 

Most investors are betting on COVID having a relatively short term impact.

 
Man I left town for a week and came back to all my accounts blown up (in a good way).

Kinda glad I wasn't around to micromanage because I'm sure I would have sold a bunch along the way.  Which is exactly what I did today selling NKLA throughout the day.

 
Guess I should have bought back in to MFA. glad I kept most of it. Closed at exactly a 100% gain from purchase. :)

Easily my quickest double. (DFS didn't quite make it)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
berndog said:
You can thank me for that bump as I sold  last week losing bout  a $1 a share. 
Click to expand...
Thanks!  Sorry about your loss, tho.....don't EVER buy anything I recommend again.  I suck.

But, this Valens should prove to be best in breed over time. I think they crush earnings the next few quarters.

 
NKLA up 125% today (day + AH).   Damn, looked at it a while back (prior to IPO) but never followed up on it.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
beef said:
NKLA up 125% today (day + AH).   Damn, looked at it a while back (prior to IPO) but never followed up on it.
Click to expand...
I have a ####-ton of warrants (sold out of most of my stock throughout the day today).  I'm really hoping they don't decide to do a cashless exercise.

 
-OZ- said:
They're not identical but there are similarities.  9/11 definitely had an impact on travel, fear, and a HUGE increase in government spending. Just to name a few ways these are similar. 

Most investors are betting on COVID having a relatively short term impact.
Click to expand...
You were referencing the impact of 9/11. It truly had a minor impact on the economy. The tech bubble that was bursting was the factor that hit the market save for an immediate few days. Outside of the temporary grounding people weren’t that afraid to fly. I flew a lot for business and there was very little true impact after the first couple weeks. More people complaining about security but the economic impact of 9/11 was minuscule compared to CV.

Investors are sure dancing to another beat and making some big assumptions but the economic impact is way different. My wife and I went to a popular restaurant on Saturday night and there was 0 wait and no one seated anywhere near us. Definitely some to go orders but still way under a pre-CV Saturday night. It’s a bit anecdotal but things like that never happened due to 9/11. Q3 2001 GDP was -0.4% but that again wasn’t due to 9/11, the shrinkage started from 2000 and the Q before 9/11 was barely positive. Q4 2001 was actually better than all 3 2001 Qs before so the recovery started right after 9/11.

I know investors are betting on a short recovery and I wasn’t someone who went significantly in cash. I’m up 23-35% YTD in my top 3 accounts so I’m betting as well, but I certainly feel a bit worried when people are betting on crappy companies like there’s no tomorrow and doing well. If you want a comparison, that’s what caused the tech bubble in 2000-2001. Everything was a winner and a large portion of those tech companies didn’t last at all. Not to scare anyone, but we didn’t blow past the S&P highs of 2000/2001 until a decade later. We treaded water and zig zagged for a long time so if CV compares to 9/11, we are in for a long period of treading water. Like you, I’ve got another 10 years before I’m retiring so I don’t mind treading water and DCAing if we take off again in 2030 and hopefully some of the stocks I own now go FAANG style the next 10 years.

 
Fwiw, NKLA warrants are still trading with a $55 delta relative to share price with a $11.50 exercise price.

So if they decide on a cash exercise you'd be paying $28.50 + $11.50 = $40 to get a share that is currently worth $86.  If they decide on a cashless exercise then you merely break even (get roughly half of one share per warrant).

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I have a ####-ton of warrants (sold out of most of my stock throughout the day today).  I'm really hoping they don't decide to do a cashless exercise.
Click to expand...
She's really a squirmy one.  Just in AH watched it climb up to 95, then back to 85 in minutes.   

 
beef said:
NKLA up 125% today (day + AH).   Damn, looked at it a while back (prior to IPO) but never followed up on it.
Click to expand...
NKLA's smashing success is partly why I'm so excited about FMCI. BYND is the only stock in the plant-based food sector at the moment, similar to TSLA being alone in the EV category until NKLA. I think people will be eager to trade a new, second name. 

 
caustic said:
NKLA's smashing success is partly why I'm so excited about FMCI. BYND is the only stock in the plant-based food sector at the moment, similar to TSLA being alone in the EV category until NKLA. I think people will be eager to trade a new, second name. 
Click to expand...
Just so I got this right, you're talking about Forum Merger II Corp?

 
beef said:
Just so I got this right, you're talking about Forum Merger II Corp?
Click to expand...
Yep -- they've signed a letter of intent to acquire a plant-based food company, similar to what VTIQ did with NKLA. Here's the press release from May 13, emphasis added:

Delray Beach, FL, May 13, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Forum Merger II Corporation (Nasdaq: FMCI) (“Forum” or the “Company”) today announced it has signed a letter of intent and expects to sign a definitive agreement to acquire a high-growth, plant-based food company with a broad portfolio of innovative products that are aligned with major food trends and sold through leading retailers and distributors across the United States (the “Target”).

The Target’s disruptive strategy is focused on addressing the growing consumer demand for nutritious, great tasting, better-for-you products with plant-based food. The Target’s alignment with today’s secular food trends, combined with its robust, plant-based offerings that feature unique ingredients, innovative recipes and creative branding, has allowed it to establish a meaningful market presence in a short period of time. Forum believes that the Target has a compelling financial profile, with significant historical and projected revenue growth and profitability. Forum’s management expects that the anticipated valuation at consummation of the business combination transaction will represent a meaningful discount to relevant public comparable multiples.

Completion of the transaction is subject to, among other things, the negotiation and execution of a definitive agreement providing for the transaction, satisfaction of the closing conditions included therein and approval of the transaction by Forum’s shareholders. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that a definitive agreement will be entered into or that the proposed transaction will be consummated.
Click to expand...
The acquisition isn't set in stone yet, so there's always a risk that something falls through -- but so far things are looking good. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Fwiw, NKLA warrants are still trading with a $55 delta relative to share price with a $11.50 exercise price.

So if they decide on a cash exercise you'd be paying $28.50 + $11.50 = $40 to get a share that is currently worth $86.  If they decide on a cashless exercise then you merely break even (get roughly half of one share per warrant).
Click to expand...
Picked some up at 27.98.  First time buying warrants.  Also bought some stock too in case RH wants to cult-like run it some more tomorrow.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
caustic said:
NKLA's smashing success is partly why I'm so excited about FMCI. BYND is the only stock in the plant-based food sector at the moment, similar to TSLA being alone in the EV category until NKLA. I think people will be eager to trade a new, second name. 
Click to expand...
I bought some a couple of weeks ago and got board with it and sold for a 2% gain.

Back in after hours at a buck more. :bag:

 
caustic said:
NKLA's smashing success is partly why I'm so excited about FMCI. BYND is the only stock in the plant-based food sector at the moment, similar to TSLA being alone in the EV category until NKLA. I think people will be eager to trade a new, second name. 
Click to expand...
BYND jumped 21% today

 
I have been trading BLMN for the last week. Getting in at the lows of the days and selling out at the highs.

Today I made 8% on 3000 shares in 10 minutes. (In at 14.40 and out at 15.83 in under 13 minutes)

It has been the gift that has kept on giving. What a ride this thoroughbred has been. 

I have made these trades so fast....I simply have not had time to post here about them.....in and out rinse and repeat. 

The last three times I traded it I was in and out within an average of 35-45 minutes. It is the only day trading I have done literally in 10 plus years. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Todem said:
I have been trading BLMN for the last week. Getting in at the lows of the days and selling out at the highs.

Today I made 8% on 3000 shares in 10 minutes. (In at 14.40 and out at 15.83 in under 13 minutes)

It has been the gift that has kept on giving. What a ride this thoroughbred has been. 

I have made these trades so fast....I simply have not had time to post here about them.....in and out rinse and repeat. 

The last three times I traded it I was in and out within an average of 35-45 minutes. It is the only day trading I have done literally in 10 plus years. 
Click to expand...
Basically every stock is doing this right now though.  Why the draw to BLMN for trading?  Every restaurant, cruise, bank, etc has the same moves right now.

 
sporthenry said:
I mean calling exact timing is fool's errand. Not to mention, 3Q starts in three weeks so could be then or in September. I probably should have provided some background but didn't want to just regurgitate it. I mean, at the end of the day, you can always find indicators that point to buying or selling. Heck, people can look at the same indicator and call it bearish or bullish. 

Full disclosure, I've been bearish on the way up. Didn't like the rally at 2,750, liked it less at 3,000 and obviously don't like it now. While the market is forward looking, it's just been awfully optimistic. Obviously that has been rewarded. But the main reason I posted that is that a lot of folks try to use that it's the most hated rally ever, there is a ton of money on the sidelines (via hedge funds and CTAs) with their net short positions in the futures indicate this could run a lot further as those funds will have to close out shorts and go long. You essentially need to start finding incremental buyers to keep it going higher.

So my big takeaway is just that some of the gasoline that people point out to to keep things going may not be as great as people think. If and when some of these long/short HFs turn bullish, it's unlikely they'll be able to carry the market that much higher. The put/call ratio is one of those that people can use to justify either position but I usually look at it as a contra-indicator. Essentially a put/call ratio below 1 means that people are buying more calls than puts. That means people are bullish and that is helping to carry the market higher but at least at extreme levels, it points to irrational exuberance. It means that people are getting complacent with this market and that people think the market will go higher so are likely fully invested. So if selling starts happening, you may not have a lot of money to buy the dip. 

Like I said, you can probably find indicators that point to new ATHs. And that article doesn't necessarily dispute that. I think it just highlights that folks are actually invested in this market a lot more than people have said. I think on top of what that article stated, you're seeing '99 level irrationality driven by retail folks. How long can that last? Your guess is as good as mine. If you want to trade it and make money on a bankrupt Hertz? You can probably make some money. But if you're investing long-term, I'd just be cautious. I wouldn't be throwing a ton of money into this market right now and if you wanted to pare down your risk, assuming you've either ridden back the market or maybe invested at the bottom, I think that is prudent. Market irrationality can exist a long time and you're starting to see that with behavior in here or tweets like this (https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1269706445299335171). In my experience, the people who do well in the long-term aren't worried about picking up pennies in front of steamroller or chasing markets like this. Stick to the game-plan. Don't take money out of your house or put any savings you may need into the market thinking it'll double or triple because you saw someone do that last month. 
Click to expand...
Thanks for the insight SH!

 
Can someone explain to me why NKLA warrants would not basically be free money right now?

There is a $63 gap between the price of NKLA warrants and NKLA shares, yet the warrants convert to shares at a cost of $11.50 each.  You can't convert the warrants until early July so the share price could come down in between but it would have to drop by $51 per share to not make money.

NKLA warrant current price = $27

NKLA share current price = $90

Example:

Buy 100 NKLA warrants at $27 per warrant = $2700

Exercise cost to convert each warrant to a share is $11.50 per warrant = $1150

That's $3850 to get 100 shares of NKLA with the caveat being that you don't get them until early July.  100 shares of NKLA is currently worth $9000.

What am I missing here?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL said:
Basically every stock is doing this right now though.  Why the draw to BLMN for trading?  Every restaurant, cruise, bank, etc has the same moves right now.
Click to expand...
Because I have been able to trade it to a tee.....just happens to be my pick to do that with. 

No other reason than comfortability. 

I am not a day trader. Not in the least bit. Except with this stock. I just have a good pulse on how it is trading. 

 
Just insane market. Fidelity says I’m up 41.58% over one year. Could literally move retirement up a few years.

Thanks for all the tips. Even my International Paper adventure is in the green.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
104
Views
3K
KGB
KGB
Andrew74
2023 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
98
Views
5K
KGB
KGB
KGB
Crypto vs stock market
Replies
10
Views
977
Dr. Octopus
Dr. Octopus

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 11 (members: 0, guests: 11)
Top