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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

AAPL leaps are still surprisingly cheap if you're looking to get more leverage on that stock.  Seriously contemplating picking up some $105 9/22 calls for only about $3500 apiece.  That's a break-even of $140 by September 2022.  AAPL was knocking on the door of $140 two days ago.

 
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AAPL leaps are still surprisingly cheap if you're looking to get more leverage on that stock.  Seriously contemplating picking up some $105 9/22 calls for only about $3500 apiece.  That's a break-even of $135 by September 2022.  AAPL was $135+ two days ago.
You can say that again. This actually feels particularly bearish to me. We just learned today that Softbank is plowing billions into spectulating in options for these stocks. Leaps are weird and illiquid anyways, will have a lot of volatility. 

 
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Etsy instead.  LOL.
Tesla ran up 30-40% just on that before dipping after earnings and then going up 50% on the split.

I guess that’s good since I own some ETSY.

I wonder if Tesla will even good down. They should get a big haircut since they did run up a lot on inclusion.

 
Tesla ran up 30-40% just on that before dipping after earnings and then going up 50% on the split.

I guess that’s good since I own some ETSY.

I wonder if Tesla will even good down. They should get a big haircut since they did run up a lot on inclusion.
It dropped from $420 to $380 during AHs right after the announcement.

 
It dropped from $420 to $380 during AHs right after the announcement.
Yeah, down about 6% right now (above $390). ETSY up over 5%. TER, which I own, is up just under 2% as it’s on the list too.

Definitely not close to the % gain from the inclusion anticipation.

 
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Random comment.

I have never seen (in person) something of Tesla brand.  I have never spoken to anyone (in person) who owns anything Tesla makes.  

Nothing against Tesla, just that at this point for me it is a mythical company

Side comment, I bought some Etsy yesterday morning, and dont own any Tesla

 
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I thought maybe a good analog for Tesla would be Porsche. Turns out they built 36% more cars worldwide than Porsche did in 2019. And they sold over three times as many cars in the US in 2019. Not an impassioned defense of the current valuation, but it's eye-opening so see how legit they are becoming as a manufacturer.

 
You have never seen a Tesla car? I bet you have and didn’t realize it.

i see 2-3/month here in NE Ohio. (Stow/Hudson area)
I suppose that is possible that I have seen one and not known it.  

I was just talking to 2 of my coworkers who have also never seen a Tesla and do not know and have never talked to anyone who owns one.

 
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Random comment.

I have never seen (in person) something of Tesla brand.  I have never spoken to anyone (in person) who owns anything Tesla makes.  

Nothing against Tesla, just that at this point for me it is a mythical company

Side comment, I bought some Etsy yesterday morning, and dont own any Tesla
Tesla cars all over here in the Seattle area.

Haven't seen any rocketships around here though.

Yet.

 
Tesla ran up 30-40% just on that before dipping after earnings and then going up 50% on the split.

I guess that’s good since I own some ETSY.

I wonder if Tesla will even good down. They should get a big haircut since they did run up a lot on inclusion.


Random comment.

I have never seen (in person) something of Tesla brand.  I have never spoken to anyone (in person) who owns anything Tesla makes.  

Nothing against Tesla, just that at this point for me it is a mythical company


I suppose that is possible that I have seen one and not known it.  

I was just talking to 2 of my coworkers who have also never seen a Tesla and do not know and have never talked to anyone who owns one.
It would be really surprising if you hadn't seen one. I overlooked them for the longest time before my 15yo got obnoxious with how often he'd point them out. I live in a middle income neighborhood in Alabama and we have at least 3, in 100 homes. Probably more. They're nowhere near as common as Toyota or Honda, but they're pretty much everywhere.  

Only one guy in my office owns one. Not surprisingly he's the youngest of the civilians attorneys. 

I'm glad I trimmed my holdings, took the profit along the way and still have 7% of my IRA in Tesla. I already took out my original purchase (bought Toyota and ARKK with it)

 
Random comment.

I have never seen (in person) something of Tesla brand.  I have never spoken to anyone (in person) who owns anything Tesla makes.  

Nothing against Tesla, just that at this point for me it is a mythical company

Side comment, I bought some Etsy yesterday morning, and dont own any Tesla
You must be seeing them and not realize it. I see at least 3-5 a day and I live in Utah, so not exactly Tesla's target market by any means. 

Tesla's valuation is insane, but there is an extremely strong bull case for that stock if it were priced anywhere near fairly. 

Much more so than etsy, which is a nice enough company but laughable as an sp500 inclusion. 

 
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What’s the rationale for adding Etsy and not Tesla to the SP500? I know it’s not strictly market cap but we’re talking a company with a valuation of 200 billion vs 15 billion. Was this a direct FU toward Musk? 

 
What’s the rationale for adding Etsy and not Tesla to the SP500? I know it’s not strictly market cap but we’re talking a company with a valuation of 200 billion vs 15 billion. Was this a direct FU toward Musk? 
I think the main two sticking points to Tesla joining the SP500 were the crazy volatility of the stock and the notion that they did some tricky accounting with those EV credits to meet the minimum requirements of 4 consecutive quarters of positive net income.  And the wild multiple, of course.

Etsy has a wild multiple of its own but it looks downright reasonable next to Tesla.  Still seems like a janky company to be worth of SP500 status though and as someone with most of my retirement money in the SP500 I want no part of a company like that.  I think when the real post-covid correction does come it's not going to be strong companies like AAPL or AMZN that pull back wildly.  It's going to be the junk that ran up on their coat tails like Wayfair, Overstock, Etsy.

 
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Random comment.

I have never seen (in person) something of Tesla brand.  I have never spoken to anyone (in person) who owns anything Tesla makes.  

Nothing against Tesla, just that at this point for me it is a mythical company

Side comment, I bought some Etsy yesterday morning, and dont own any Tesla
I can’t go for a drive here in Denver and not see multiple ones everywhere. I rode in a friends once when he first got it a few months ago, I definitely see the appeal - super quiet, lots of zip, tons of cool bells and whistles.

 
I think the main two sticking points to Tesla joining the SP500 were the crazy volatility of the stock and the notion that they did some tricky accounting with those EV credits to meet the minimum requirements of 4 consecutive quarters of positive net income.  And the wild multiple, of course.

Etsy has a wild multiple of its own but it looks downright reasonable next to Tesla.  Still seems like a janky company to be worth of SP500 status though and as someone with most of my retirement money in the SP500 I want no part of a company like that.  I think when the real post-covid correction does come it's not going to be strong companies like AAPL or AMZN that pull back wildly.  It's going to be the junk that ran up like Wayfair, Overstock, Etsy.
It wouldn’t surprise me about those credits. They would have lost money the last 4 quarters if not for those credits. 4 straight quarters of positive earnings is a requirement.

That said, I wouldn’t lump ETSY in the same boat as those other two. First, Overstock is 100% CV. Their revenue was declining for years and only popped up this past quarter. Also, ETSY’s revenue growth is higher margin as a marketplace. It’s been profitable for years now and Wayfair has been losing money until CV. GM wise Etsy is growing faster and is almost at the same level. Also, how much of Wayfair’s growth was solely because it was a place you could buy from during CV?

I definitely have a far more positive outlook on Etsy than Wayfair. I’m way more worried about Shopify and Amazon and normal retail if I’m Wayfair than Etsy.

 
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It would be really surprising if you hadn't seen one. I overlooked them for the longest time before my 15yo got obnoxious with how often he'd point them out. I live in a middle income neighborhood in Alabama and we have at least 3, in 100 homes. Probably more. They're nowhere near as common as Toyota or Honda, but they're pretty much everywhere.  

Only one guy in my office owns one. Not surprisingly he's the youngest of the civilians attorneys. 

I'm glad I trimmed my holdings, took the profit along the way and still have 7% of my IRA in Tesla. I already took out my original purchase (bought Toyota and ARKK with it)
Yeah, I’m only negative on Tesla due to share price. I’d love to go back in time and just place the buy order. I just won’t buy right now. It could be higher in 5 years but the growth potential is way less because of artificial run ups. Down 6% for non S&P inclusion? It ran up from 200 to 300 when all the S&P inclusion happened. It actually dropped after earnings were good but not great (profitable but only due to credits) like the FANG stocks blew out. It then went from 275 to peak at 500 due to the split. Going down just 6% to 390 us a big win considering it was at 200 and ran up to 500 more because of S&P and the split than anything else.

If the market dips more, Tesla has a lot more room to drop IMHO.

 
Yeah, I’m only negative on Tesla due to share price. I’d love to go back in time and just place the buy order. I just won’t buy right now. It could be higher in 5 years but the growth potential is way less because of artificial run ups. Down 6% for non S&P inclusion? It ran up from 200 to 300 when all the S&P inclusion happened. It actually dropped after earnings were good but not great (profitable but only due to credits) like the FANG stocks blew out. It then went from 275 to peak at 500 due to the split. Going down just 6% to 390 us a big win considering it was at 200 and ran up to 500 more because of S&P and the split than anything else.

If the market dips more, Tesla has a lot more room to drop IMHO.
Right.  I actually really like the company and its upside.  It's just that it's already priced at that upside.

Kind of like I really love Terry McLaurin this year.  But if he were going 9th overall in drafts I wouldn't take him there.

 
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Random comment.

I have never seen (in person) something of Tesla brand.  I have never spoken to anyone (in person) who owns anything Tesla makes.  

Nothing against Tesla, just that at this point for me it is a mythical company

Side comment, I bought some Etsy yesterday morning, and dont own any Tesla
They sold 368K vehicles in 2019. 

Ford sold 17.1 million by comparison in the same year. 

 
SFRX

Who doesn't want to invest in treasure hunters?   :moneybag:   :lmao:

I love this so much, I might just throw a couple hundred at it so I can follow along with them.  

https://seafarerexplorationcorp.com/ 
1000 shares is $5. A couple hundred and you might have a hard time filling the order. Only about $10k volume a day. I don’t think they even report earnings. Can’t believe this is even a stock and you’ve got to wonder how much of a cut of any treasure found the shareholders get. Hard pass even if just for ####s and giggles.

 
Ya know how different sectors seem to go in spurts?

tech, oil . etc?

What about pot?  that sector has been down quite awhile and im sure elections will approve more?  

Thoughts?

i'm in HRVSF and MJ 

 
Ya know how different sectors seem to go in spurts?

tech, oil . etc?

What about pot?  that sector has been down quite awhile and im sure elections will approve more?  

Thoughts?

i'm in HRVSF and MJ 
I've been buying into MJ over the past few weeks. So far it's going great! 🤣

 
Ya know how different sectors seem to go in spurts?

tech, oil . etc?

What about pot?  that sector has been down quite awhile and im sure elections will approve more?  

Thoughts?

i'm in HRVSF and MJ 
Why are these stocks at lows in the first place? Is there something new to the fundamentals? Rotation into other sectors? 

 
Why are these stocks at lows in the first place? Is there something new to the fundamentals? Rotation into other sectors? 
Nothing to do with rotation. I’ve posted it as an example a few times recently, but I think what I read was that the illegal weed business hasn’t gone anywhere. Supposedly you can get better weed cheaper through the same channels so the addressable market that analysts predicted hasn’t materialized. Also, prices and supply are way too high.

This is from a year ago: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/08/30/the-reason-pot-stocks-will-never-recover/#12c2fb4b7030

This was one I could find about price pressure due to cheaper legal and illegal competition:

https://www.investors.com/news/marijuana-stocks-good-buy/

It’s never good to face pricing pressure. One reason why many stocks succeed in a huge way is being able to set their price. If Netflix raised their price 50%, would they see a revenue increase? Yes. There’s way more than 70% of their user base that would pay that price increase that it would make up for the small percent they lose who couldn’t afford it. It’s an extreme example but investing in companies that have to lower prices to compete is not good investing. Maybe they can come back but it might only be specific companies not the whole industry.

 
Nothing to do with rotation. I’ve posted it as an example a few times recently, but I think what I read was that the illegal weed business hasn’t gone anywhere. Supposedly you can get better weed cheaper through the same channels so the addressable market that analysts predicted hasn’t materialized. Also, prices and supply are way too high.

This is from a year ago: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/08/30/the-reason-pot-stocks-will-never-recover/#12c2fb4b7030

This was one I could find about price pressure due to cheaper legal and illegal competition:

https://www.investors.com/news/marijuana-stocks-good-buy/

It’s never good to face pricing pressure. One reason why many stocks succeed in a huge way is being able to set their price. If Netflix raised their price 50%, would they see a revenue increase? Yes. There’s way more than 70% of their user base that would pay that price increase that it would make up for the small percent they lose who couldn’t afford it. It’s an extreme example but investing in companies that have to lower prices to compete is not good investing. Maybe they can come back but it might only be specific companies not the whole industry.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/27/the-profit-in-marijuana-country.html

This is a link to just a preview but the entire hour show was interesting.  Basically Marcus Lemonis didn't find anything investable during his visit for many of the reasons stubs minions above.

 
Nothing to do with rotation. I’ve posted it as an example a few times recently, but I think what I read was that the illegal weed business hasn’t gone anywhere. Supposedly you can get better weed cheaper through the same channels so the addressable market that analysts predicted hasn’t materialized. Also, prices and supply are way too high.

This is from a year ago: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/08/30/the-reason-pot-stocks-will-never-recover/#12c2fb4b7030

This was one I could find about price pressure due to cheaper legal and illegal competition:

https://www.investors.com/news/marijuana-stocks-good-buy/

It’s never good to face pricing pressure. One reason why many stocks succeed in a huge way is being able to set their price. If Netflix raised their price 50%, would they see a revenue increase? Yes. There’s way more than 70% of their user base that would pay that price increase that it would make up for the small percent they lose who couldn’t afford it. It’s an extreme example but investing in companies that have to lower prices to compete is not good investing. Maybe they can come back but it might only be specific companies not the whole industry.
I'm not so sure Netflix has that kind of pricing power anymore with all the competitors coming online.

Doesn't invalidate your argument. Just not sure if the example would really hold up anymore.

 
I'm not so sure Netflix has that kind of pricing power anymore with all the competitors coming online.

Doesn't invalidate your argument. Just not sure if the example would really hold up anymore.
Actually, their pricing power has actually increased even with all of the competition.

https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/netflix-higher-prices-subscriber-survey-1234697737/

That said my example was an exaggeration to prove a point. I have Netflix, Disney+, HBOMax (free), Hulu (use for Live) and Prime (free as well). There’s no doubt Netflix is the top dog and it’s not really close at all. OBX 2 #####es!

 
Looking like a fire sale out there now. Still not sure how Tesla ended up green on Friday, but it's getting hammered pre-market as is everything else tech related. Tesla peaked around 500 post split and has lost almost 30%. It's down almost 20% since the split.

 
You must be seeing them and not realize it. I see at least 3-5 a day and I live in Utah, so not exactly Tesla's target market by any means. 

Tesla's valuation is insane, but there is an extremely strong bull case for that stock if it were priced anywhere near fairly. 

Much more so than etsy, which is a nice enough company but laughable as an sp500 inclusion. 
It's funny because I agree with the bull case. But the valuation is beyond repulsive. We are talking pie in the sky speculation levels beyond anything I had seen in recent memory. 

The valuation will at some point align with more fundamental finical reality.....and when it does I will dip my toes in. Congratulations to those that have made a fortune on the run......those that sold....smart move. 

I simply cannot in good conscience jump onto a valuation runaway train like this one. I mean think about this.....you had years to buy APPL at mid teens and in some instances below 10 valuations ex cash.....plenty of chances. The stock in in the high 30’s PE area now....and look at that stocks run. And look at that stocks moat. 

No comparison. I lie sticking to those kind of growth stocks. Call me conservative LOL. 

 
Looking like a fire sale out there now. Still not sure how Tesla ended up green on Friday, but it's getting hammered pre-market as is everything else tech related. Tesla peaked around 500 post split and has lost almost 30%. It's down almost 20% since the split.
And it will keep dropping.......it is happening. I was telling some clients it looks like the Hindenburg......and it very well may be from a stock price valuation perspective.  It will be a snowball effect. All that "Johnny come lately” money that came in way after the actual trade and chased this thing  will get rocked here and panic on the price will set in.

 
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And it will keep dropping.......it is happening. I was telling some clients it looks like the Hindenburg......and it very well may be from a stock price valuation perspective.  It will be a snowball effect. All that "Johnny come lately” money that came in way after the actual trade and chased this thing  will get rocked here and panic on the price will set in.
Bought into some more AAPL and TQQQ late last week.  Get out while I’m slightly under water or ride it out and likely get it cheaper later this week/month?

 
It's funny because I agree with the bull case. But the valuation is beyond repulsive. We are talking pie in the sky speculation levels beyond anything I had seen in recent memory. 

The valuation will at some point align with more fundamental finical reality.....and when it does I will dip my toes in. Congratulations to those that have made a fortune on the run......those that sold....smart move. 

I simply cannot in good conscience jump onto a valuation runaway train like this one. I mean think about this.....you had years to buy APPL at mid teens and in some instances below 10 valuations ex cash.....plenty of chances. The stock in in the high 30’s PE area now....and look at that stocks run. And look at that stocks moat. 

No comparison. I lie sticking to those kind of growth stocks. Call me conservative LOL. 
Not that it's my intent to compare the two as companies, but I just looked and it looks like AMZN's highest P/E ratio was 3732.  TSLA is currently at 1008.

I'm wondering at what price Tesla becomes attractive. I made a bunch trading it after the split announcement and still have a teensy bit left, but like I mentioned above if the valuation were even semi fair there is a lot to like as the current industry leader in an industry that will almost certainly be a $4+ trillion industry within the next 20 years. And that's before we consider the other likely trillion dollar industries they are reasonably well positioned in. 

 

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