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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)

Lacey said:
Is TZA one you play for short term and if you see a nice little pop you generally get out?
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Yes. At the most, I would hold these maybe a couple of days past the election.

Yesterday and today, I've been bailed out by CYDY. Not likely to be durable.

 
Lacey said:
Is TZA one you play for short term and if you see a nice little pop you generally get out?
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Yes, for me.  I try to keep leveraged Bears a few days or less.  If I'm in more than a week I f'd up on timing or am getting greedy (which should tell me to GTFO). 

Leveraged Bulls like TNA, SPXL, UPRO, TQQQ, or some sector ones like FAS, UYG, NRGU, I may ride a little longer or am less concerned if I'm in more than a week.  

Should also note that this strategy changes depending on how the overall markets are doing. 

 
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beef said:
Yes, for me.  I try to keep leveraged Bears a few days or less.  If I'm in in more than a week I f'd up on timing or am getting greedy (which should tell me to GTFO). 

Leveraged Bulls like TNA, SPXL, UPRO, TQQQ, or some sector ones like FAS, UYG, NRGU, I may ride a little longer or am less concerned if I'm in more than a week.  
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I actually got a FAS dividend in the last month because I've been holding it so long.

 
BassNBrew said:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=LKNCY&qsearchterm=luckin

@stbugs I believe you sold your Luckin but looking for some advice.  I'm still holding 71 shares of Lunkin at $3.36 basis.  Fidelity won't let me buy again but I am allowed to sell.  Any suggestions?  I'm tempted to just let it ride for a couple of years and see what happens.
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It’s nice to not have it on screen. I mean, if it doubles it’s $200. Is it worth bothering with it or just better to use the $200 on your next position? I do feel like I’ve got too many stocks right now. I just sold my PTIV (from the IPO) and bought 100 GHIV and 100 RGEN (not Trump’s stock). I was out of the 15 day keep my IPO privileges and it was a stock I don’t care about. I sold LK because it wouldn’t be on my future radar. It may come back but no need to deal with a company that already screwed me since there are so many more.

 
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Chadstroma said:
No one knows UWM name because they don't do retail lending, only wholesale. Hell, even Mortgage Loan Officers working for banks and direct lenders don't know the name sometimes. Many people around the industry don't know the name. I am sure it would be rare for a realtor to know UWM. In fact, I am doing my own refi right now, through UWM, and mentioned it to the appraiser as we talked and he never heard of it. It just isn't a name brand. However... 

It IS the fastest growing Mortgage lender on the country. 

It IS the largest wholesaler in the country. 

It IS the second largest mortgage lender on the country. 

It IS the favorite/preferred lender of most mortgage brokers whose market share of mortgage lending has been growing exponentially. 

It IS lead by one of the most admired leaders in mortgage lending (Mat Ishbia). They set trends and the market (retail and wholesale) follow. 
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Bought 100 more since I sold another stock I just bought to be in on an IPO and hope that it helped me get others in the future. Bought 10 shares of another stock as well. Figures this was a nice endorsement for a long term play.

 
stbugs said:
Bought 100 more since I sold another stock I just bought to be in on an IPO and hope that it helped me get others in the future. Bought 10 shares of another stock as well. Figures this was a nice endorsement for a long term play.
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So what happens when you buy something like GHIV, and then UWM goes public? Do they then break out of GHIV and you get stock in that company? I'm not sure how that all works. Thanks.

 
Chadstroma said:
No one knows UWM name because they don't do retail lending, only wholesale. Hell, even Mortgage Loan Officers working for banks and direct lenders don't know the name sometimes. Many people around the industry don't know the name. I am sure it would be rare for a realtor to know UWM. In fact, I am doing my own refi right now, through UWM, and mentioned it to the appraiser as we talked and he never heard of it. It just isn't a name brand. However... 

It IS the fastest growing Mortgage lender on the country. 

It IS the largest wholesaler in the country. 

It IS the second largest mortgage lender on the country. 

It IS the favorite/preferred lender of most mortgage brokers whose market share of mortgage lending has been growing exponentially. 

It IS lead by one of the most admired leaders in mortgage lending (Mat Ishbia). They set trends and the market (retail and wholesale) follow. 
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I'll offer some slight caution here.

I am far from an expert but I was interested in why RKT tanked so much after EXCEPTIONAL earnings/guidance (and whether or not that made it a good buy) so I did a bunch of research to try and figure out why.

It seems like it mostly came down to 2 things.

1) Mortgage companies typically trade at extremely low multiples.  Among the lowest in the market.  So even though RKT's revenue, growth, and guidance were all stellar it was still seen as overvalued by institutional investors even at a very modest P/E multiple.

2) Institutional investors seem to basically not care at all about revenues or growth that comes from refi's.  It sounds like they don't see it as indicative of future revenue or growth at all (doubly so in this market) and they care only about new loan origination.  Obviously right now a huge percentage of revenue for most mortage companies is coming from refi's, which creates an inflated look on revenue/earnings that institutions don't really care about.

RKT has somewhat been saved by retail since it is such a recognizable brand that had a lot of publicity around its IPO.  In the case of UWM a lack of interest from retail is being presented as a positive but I worry that it could be a major negative since if the above 2 points hold true institutions may not be interested in it at all.

Again I am no expert, but I am just throwing it out there as potential info.  There were a lot of people who worked for or were involved with RKT that were telling everyone how great the numbers were going to be on the company but that didn't translate to any institutional buying even when those numbers were massive.

 
ChiefD said:
So what happens when you buy something like GHIV, and then UWM goes public? Do they then break out of GHIV and you get stock in that company? I'm not sure how that all works. Thanks.
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Here’s the SPAC timeline since it’s different from the easy IPO process of selling shares at price $X and opening it up to the public:

1. Rich guys form an SPAC which is basically just a fixed number of shares set at say $10 and sell them as kind of an IPO.

2. All those shares are tradeable (usually Nasdaq) as two tickets, one for exactly a share in the SPAC and one for a share and a partial warrant to buy a share at say $11.50. Most I’ve seen are 1/3 of a share warrant so if you buy the U share, buy 3 which in essence gets you 4 shares at a discount if the shares are above $11.50 when you have to decide if you want to exercise the warrant.

3. The one above with the warrants is the most complicated. Ignore that and just know those turn into shares at the end. The next step before which people can buy and sell shares in the SPAC is to find a private company that wants to go public and announce the merger. When the merger happens, typically there is a pop in the share price.

3b. If no merger happens by the expiration of the SPAC there can be a vote to extend the deadline or you get $10 a share back. If you bought in above that level then you lose a bit.

4. After the merger is approved there is a waiting period until all the Is are dotted Ts are crossed after which the SPAC switches over to the new symbol and basically is now just the company itself trading on the stock markets. At this point there’s no more SPAC and as an investor you just have the same number of shares under a new symbol.

5. I’ve never gone through the warrants (I did buy one, so we’ll see), but I think that actually happens after the switchover. You can always just sell the SPAC U share before it happens and not worry about it.

The reason this is popular is because the fees to go public via IPO can run around $200M and the company doesn’t get that at all. The benefit is that if you’re a hot IPO you can set the share price way up the day before and get more money. The company in merging with the SPAC will generally pay way less in fees because the guys running the SPAC get the money not banks. That kitty of money in the SPAC IPO goes straight to the company and usually there are also side investments from the guys who setup the SPAC. The company only gives a percentage of their company shares to the SPAC investors based on the company’s valuation. If the company is worth $2B and the SPAC has $500M then the SPAC investors basically own 25% of the company.

 
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For those trying to get in early/pre-IPO, equityzen has shares of Impossible Foods right now.  Valuation is $8.2bn (BYND is $11.3 mkt cap) which is double what they raised at just a couple months ago so not sure if it's a good buy there, but who knows what that valuation could be at by the time it one day IPOs.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'll offer some slight caution here.

I am far from an expert but I was interested in why RKT tanked so much after EXCEPTIONAL earnings/guidance (and whether or not that made it a good buy) so I did a bunch of research to try and figure out why.

It seems like it mostly came down to 2 things.

1) Mortgage companies typically trade at extremely low multiples.  Among the lowest in the market.  So even though RKT's revenue, growth, and guidance were all stellar it was still seen as overvalued by institutional investors even at a very modest P/E multiple.

2) Institutional investors seem to basically not care at all about revenues or growth that comes from refi's.  It sounds like they don't see it as indicative of future revenue or growth at all (doubly so in this market) and they care only about new loan origination.  Obviously right now a huge percentage of revenue for most mortage companies is coming from refi's, which creates an inflated look on revenue/earnings that institutions don't really care about.

RKT has somewhat been saved by retail since it is such a recognizable brand that had a lot of publicity around its IPO.  In the case of UWM a lack of interest from retail is being presented as a positive but I worry that it could be a major negative since if the above 2 points hold true institutions may not be interested in it at all.

Again I am no expert, but I am just throwing it out there as potential info.  There were a lot of people who worked for or were involved with RKT that were telling everyone how great the numbers were going to be on the company but that didn't translate to any institutional buying even when those numbers were massive.
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UWM is well positioned to win in a purchase only rate environment. Unlike Rocket where the reputation is poo and honestly a HUGE reason for the rebranding from Quicken where most realtors I know would advise their clients to turn down purchase offers using Quicken/Rocket when others are on the table brokers reps are the ones with these loans. UWM is built around technology to allow to to streamline loans and it has the fastest turn times in the industry. They are extremely well positioned to win even when the refi boom is over. 

Now, how does Wall St value all that? Hell if I know.

 
stbugs said:
Here’s the SPAC timeline since it’s different from the easy IPO process of selling shares at price $X and opening it up to the public:

1. Rich guys form an SPAC which is basically just a fixed number of shares set at say $10 and sell them as kind of an IPO.

2. All those shares are tradeable (usually Nasdaq) as two tickets, one for exactly a share in the SPAC and one for a share and a partial warrant to buy a share at say $11.50. Most I’ve seen are 1/3 of a share warrant so if you buy the U share, buy 3 which in essence gets you 4 shares at a discount if the shares are above $11.50 when you have to decide if you want to exercise the warrant.

3. The one above with the warrants is the most complicated. Ignore that and just know those turn into shares at the end. The next step before which people can buy and sell shares in the SPAC is to find a private company that wants to go public and announce the merger. When the merger happens, typically there is a pop in the share price.

3b. If no merger happens by the expiration of the SPAC there can be a vote to extend the deadline or you get $10 a share back. If you bought in above that level then you lose a bit.

4. After the merger is approved there is a waiting period until all the Is are dotted Ts are crossed after which the SPAC switches over to the new symbol and basically is now just the company itself trading on the stock markets. At this point there’s no more SPAC and as an investor you just have the same number of shares under a new symbol.

5. I’ve never gone through the warrants (I did buy one, so we’ll see), but I think that actually happens after the switchover. You can always just sell the SPAC U share before it happens and not worry about it.

The reason this is popular is because the fees to go public via IPO can run around $200M and the company doesn’t get that at all. The benefit is that if you’re a hot IPO you can set the share price way up the day before and get more money. The company in merging with the SPAC will generally pay way less in fees because the guys running the SPAC get the money not banks. That kitty of money in the SPAC IPO goes straight to the company and usually there are also side investments from the guys who setup the SPAC. The company only gives a percentage of their company shares to the SPAC investors based on the company’s valuation. If the company is worth $2B and the SPAC has $500M then the SPAC investors basically own 25% of the company.
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Thanks for the info. 

So for GHIV, is it only invested in UWM, or are their other companies in the SPAC? Or is a SPAC created just to help one company get to their IPO?

Sorry - I'm not very smart in this stuff.  

 
Taking about 1/3 of my EXC off that table.  Up almost 3% today and over 10% of my basis.  I suspect I'll be able to buy those shares back cheaper.  

 
BassNBrew said:
Taking about 1/3 of my EXC off that table.  Up almost 3% today and over 10% of my basis.  I suspect I'll be able to buy those shares back cheaper.  
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Similar here.  I was buying down so I took half out.  Let the rest ride a bit.  

 
BassNBrew said:
Taking about 1/3 of my EXC off that table.  Up almost 3% today and over 10% of my basis.  I suspect I'll be able to buy those shares back cheaper.  
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I’m still in PPL as well. So tempting to sell some. I’ve traded it around to where my basis is around $23.50

 
stbugs said:
Good short time bet, but they’ve been a terrible stock to own. Ignoring dividend, the stock price even with the pop is still $4 less than where it was 5 years ago. That’s awful. Big tech stocks like Microsoft, Apple and Amazon are up 4-5x in the same period.

Geez, just looked again and IBM right now is basically where it was in 1999 after the dot com run up. It’s been a money market account (dividends) during one of the best bull runs for 21 years. Even with the crashes in 2000 and 2008, the market is up 2.5x without dividends. 
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About time they started trying to unlock some shareholder value.  It's my largest single holding thanks to 5 years working there and an ESPP, planning on unloading what I have left in January once I get the full tax benefits.

 
Chadstroma said:
UWM is well positioned to win in a purchase only rate environment. Unlike Rocket where the reputation is poo and honestly a HUGE reason for the rebranding from Quicken where most realtors I know would advise their clients to turn down purchase offers using Quicken/Rocket when others are on the table brokers reps are the ones with these loans. UWM is built around technology to allow to to streamline loans and it has the fastest turn times in the industry. They are extremely well positioned to win even when the refi boom is over. 

Now, how does Wall St value all that? Hell if I know.
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Thanks for the info, much appreciated.

 
SFBayDuck said:
About time they started trying to unlock some shareholder value.  It's my largest single holding thanks to 5 years working there and an ESPP, planning on unloading what I have left in January once I get the full tax benefits.
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I hate to say that sucks for you, but it does considering the opportunities missed. Taxes are key if you only have to wait a couple months, but even if they are doing better I’d think that you’d want to invest in other companies. I don’t see them suddenly being a leader/growing as well as many other tech companies.

 
stbugs said:
I hate to say that sucks for you, but it does considering the opportunities missed. Taxes are key if you only have to wait a couple months, but even if they are doing better I’d think that you’d want to invest in other companies. I don’t see them suddenly being a leader/growing as well as many other tech companies.
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Agreed.  I've basically been treating it as a savings account, collecting dividends.  With this climb I'm only a couple of points above my cost basis, but I've made 19% in the last 22 months or so (I'd already sold shares acquired before then) with the dividends that have been reinvested.

All that said, I'm out after January 1.

 
SFBayDuck said:
Agreed.  I've basically been treating it as a savings account, collecting dividends.  With this climb I'm only a couple of points above my cost basis, but I've made 19% in the last 22 months or so (I'd already sold shares acquired before then) with the dividends that have been reinvested.

All that said, I'm out after January 1.
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The dividend of the standalone company will likely be lower since they're going to divide it between the two entities, which defeats the purpose of why I originally bought it. I wanted an income stock with what I saw was some growth potential (as opposed to T or something) to complement my high-fliers like SE, CRWD, FVRR, NVDA and so on. Now I don't see it where it fits in my portfolio.

ETA: And I certainly don't want the spinoff. That's a large part of the dead weight.

 
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Just added back the BZQ i sold this morning for a 6% discount.  That was my last few shares after having close to 2% position, so it's a dribble back in.  No heavy conviction that this will immediately do well, more of a hedge.  

 
Was just cleaning the kitchen and realized that I'm low on paper towels and having been paying a small fortunate for them.  Kimberly Clark announces earning in two weeks and the expectation looks soft to me.  Making a play that's there's a quick 10% here to the upside.  PG hit a new 52 week high today, KMB is $10 off its 52Wk high.

 
So Gamestop signed a "partnership" with Microsoft today and the stock is up 50% on the day.

Beyond the headline of the article, this "partnership" is basically Gamestop putting in a big order for a bunch of Surface tablets for their employees to use and signing up for a big Microsoft Teams subscription.

So essentially Gamestop is buying Microsoft's product and somehow Gamestop's stock is up huge on the news, not Microsoft's?

Crazy market.  I think people saw DDOG's reaction to their (actual) partnership with Microsoft the other day and are chasing it.  But DDOG was gaining customers/revenue, Gamestop is spending it.

 
I'm just going to mention this here in case anyone is interested.  I know, its another biotech waiting approval, but its not OTC.  Its on the Nas.

LPCN.  Up 10% today on no news to 1.52

PDUFA date was August 28th, where they got a letter from FDA stating they needed a "few more weeks"  Its now been 6.

Speculation is that stock is going up on insider news and approval coming today or tomorrow.  (or it goes down 10% tomorrow back to where it started)

ETA:  there is also a long term play for NASH on this one as well. 

 
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If you like to short, GME looks like a solid one. Up 37% because of a “partnership” with Microsoft which basically appears like they’re using Azure and Tye employees will have Surfaces. That’s like saying I have a partnership with Domino’s because I’ve ordered takeout there. A couple weeks ago they jumped up 20% because one of the executive with a firm that bought an equity stake said they’d compete with Amazon, lol.

Read this and tell me if that’s a partnership or just a new Microsoft client. Another Motley Fool post about the same mentioned how the new console coming out will be downloading games only, i.e. what’s the purpose of GameStop. The people that bought into them appear to be trying to get the stock up with some pretty disingenuous news. Probably planning an exit as we speak. I know my boys used to like going in there but this is a dead man walking especially when the new consoles come out and there’s no more trade market.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
So Gamestop signed a "partnership" with Microsoft today and the stock is up 50% on the day.

Beyond the headline of the article, this "partnership" is basically Gamestop putting in a big order for a bunch of Surface tablets for their employees to use and signing up for a big Microsoft Teams subscription.

So essentially Gamestop is buying Microsoft's product and somehow Gamestop's stock is up huge on the news, not Microsoft's?

Crazy market.  I think people saw DDOG's reaction to their (actual) partnership with Microsoft the other day and are chasing it.  But DDOG was gaining customers/revenue, Gamestop is spending it.
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Damn it. You posted in the window where I was typing up my post and hit submit!

 
BassNBrew said:
Was just cleaning the kitchen and realized that I'm low on paper towels and having been paying a small fortunate for them.  Kimberly Clark announces earning in two weeks and the expectation looks soft to me.  Making a play that's there's a quick 10% here to the upside.  PG hit a new 52 week high today, KMB is $10 off its 52Wk high.
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Who is this small fortunate person you are paying for paper towels? Is it a per roll or per sheet agreement? Are you aware that Costco has these great big packages with 12 rolls on the cheap? Also, do you tip a person that brings you paper towels or is it built into the price, kind of fast food versus fine dining?

 
BassNBrew said:
Was just cleaning the kitchen and realized that I'm low on paper towels and having been paying a small fortunate for them.  Kimberly Clark announces earning in two weeks and the expectation looks soft to me.  Making a play that's there's a quick 10% here to the upside.  PG hit a new 52 week high today, KMB is $10 off its 52Wk high.
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Wait until you clean your toilet...

 
stbugs said:
Who is this small fortunate person you are paying for paper towels? Is it a per roll or per sheet agreement? Are you aware that Costco has these great big packages with 12 rolls on the cheap? Also, do you tip a person that brings you paper towels or is it built into the price, kind of fast food versus fine dining?
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Just been watching them walk out the door at the supermarket at absorbent prices.  I've done pretty well this year with the eye test.  When Lowes was trading sub $80 and their parking lots were full, it was a pretty easy buy.  

 
Added some ACI (Albertson's at the close).  Seems like a dirt cheap valuation to me and earnings are expected later this month.  KR popped nicely last month on their earning news.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'll offer some slight caution here.

I am far from an expert but I was interested in why RKT tanked so much after EXCEPTIONAL earnings/guidance (and whether or not that made it a good buy) so I did a bunch of research to try and figure out why.

It seems like it mostly came down to 2 things.

1) Mortgage companies typically trade at extremely low multiples.  Among the lowest in the market.  So even though RKT's revenue, growth, and guidance were all stellar it was still seen as overvalued by institutional investors even at a very modest P/E multiple.

2) Institutional investors seem to basically not care at all about revenues or growth that comes from refi's.  It sounds like they don't see it as indicative of future revenue or growth at all (doubly so in this market) and they care only about new loan origination.  Obviously right now a huge percentage of revenue for most mortage companies is coming from refi's, which creates an inflated look on revenue/earnings that institutions don't really care about.

RKT has somewhat been saved by retail since it is such a recognizable brand that had a lot of publicity around its IPO.  In the case of UWM a lack of interest from retail is being presented as a positive but I worry that it could be a major negative since if the above 2 points hold true institutions may not be interested in it at all.

Again I am no expert, but I am just throwing it out there as potential info.  There were a lot of people who worked for or were involved with RKT that were telling everyone how great the numbers were going to be on the company but that didn't translate to any institutional buying even when those numbers were massive.
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Just remember that mortgages are basically a commodity and most of them end up being sold to the federal government unless they are really low quality borrower or a very expensive note. Doesn't seem like a ton of long term profit here.

 
Desert_Power said:
Just remember that mortgages are basically a commodity and most of them end up being sold to the federal government unless they are really low quality borrower or a very expensive note. Doesn't seem like a ton of long term profit here.
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That’s the nice thing about these SPACs. Good place to park and if it doesn’t hit you move on. More fun than cash, especially the ones without a merger announced. That said, I’m good with this one. One of the analysts that was bullish thinks they will do better as interest rates go up and people look for the best prices. The P/E ratio looks to be about 8 for 2020 forecasts so it’s not expensive.

 
2 MAJOR mistakes.

Shorted SIRI just before howard announces hes going to re-sign.  -2K

Sold most of my pot stocks 1 day before they ALL went up 10%

Still holding DPHC good god

still holding MJ (pot fund)

got into RLFTF again @ .5488 for some quick trading..

TLDR Pot stocks go boom

 
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