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Where are you getting the snap count data? I thought he was in on over 50% of the offensive snaps most weeks.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts
FWIW, I was in the same situation in a 1 TE start league (no flex) and opted to trade Gronk.
Wow don't think I could trade the more proven player
Ahead of le Garcon?
if I can get Reed off waivers I am going to promptly try to trade Witten for a RB.
They'll be playing from behind, and the Denver defense has been pretty bad. I like it.
I think he will be, unless other teams decided to alter their usual coverage schemes to give him extra attention. LB's just can't cover him, and his moves get him open when he's covered well initially. Most other teams haven't caught on to him yet.
It's definitely a plus match-up. This is what they've given up to TEs by team..
That's hard to answer, for me. What Finley could be - and was for flashes - is likely on another level, due to his physical gifts. That said, I think Reed is a much more natural receiver and will prove to be a bigger mismatch than Finley. Reed is a much better football mind, and knows where to be to help his QB; something Finley has struggled with. Reed has better hands and is a more fluid route runner. Reed is quicker. Finley is bigger, stronger, faster.
Exactly. Finely chronically squandered blatant potential but the differences between him and Reed are like night and day. It's akin to Hernandez vs. Gronk if Gronk had stone hands.
As far as the Redskins offense goes, it was really more of a "scorefest" than a shootout (to me, shootout = pass, pass, pass, then pass some more) . Griffin attempted the fewest number of passes this week than he has in any game this year and the offense had 14 more rushing attempts than passing attempts (43 to 29). And that's the type of end-game stats the Shanahan's would like every week. It's what they did regularly during their winning streak last year, and not surprisingly, their 2 wins this year are the only games they've been able to run more than pass.
I'm in a league with HUGE TE premiums (1.5 PPR, 0.15 points per yard), and Jordan Reed was the highest scoring player last week, regardless of position. The only non-TEs to post a higher score in any game this year are Peyton Manning (his 7-TD week 1 performance), Tony Romo (his 500 yard game against Denver), and Antonio Brown (his near-200 yard game against the Bears).
I still like my 40ypg projection going forward. I think people overrate the predictive power of a small sample of games to begin the season, and underrate the predictive power of historical norms.
As a rookie, Aaron Hernandez averaged... 3.2 receptions and 40.2 yards per game. Pretty much bang-on what I was predicting for Reed going forward.
I'm guessing a big part of why rookie TEs have a history of struggling offensively is that they have to worry about developing their blocking game in addition to working on their receiving assignments. Reed apparently doesn't have to worry about the blocking game at all, just like Aaron Hernandez didn't. So I can see Reed having a very successful rookie campaign just like Aaron Hernandez did, especially considering Reed is on pace for a lot more targets than Hernandez got in his rookie season.
Dollars to donuts, I doubt Hernandez's snap count % during his rookie year would even approach what Reed's will for the rest of the season.As a rookie, Aaron Hernandez averaged... 3.2 receptions and 40.2 yards per game. Pretty much bang-on what I was predicting for Reed going forward.
I'm guessing a big part of why rookie TEs have a history of struggling offensively is that they have to worry about developing their blocking game in addition to working on their receiving assignments. Reed apparently doesn't have to worry about the blocking game at all, just like Aaron Hernandez didn't. So I can see Reed having a very successful rookie campaign just like Aaron Hernandez did, especially considering Reed is on pace for a lot more targets than Hernandez got in his rookie season.
Also, it wasn't a case of Hernandez getting better as the season went on. Through 5 games, Hernandez had 22 receptions for 301 yards (Reed, by comparison, has 26 for 298). The rest of the way, Hernandez averaged 2.5 receptions for 29 yards.
I bolded a non-trivial statement from my last post. Hernandez was targeted 64 times in his rookie season; Jordan Reed would have to average under 3.5 targets a game for the rest of the season to finish the year with that few targets. Barring some type of injury, I don't see that being a likely scenario, particularly considering Reed has gotten 6 or more targets in 4 of 5 games he's played and his snap count has been on the rise since the season started, albeit unevenly.As a rookie, Aaron Hernandez averaged... 3.2 receptions and 40.2 yards per game. Pretty much bang-on what I was predicting for Reed going forward.
I'm guessing a big part of why rookie TEs have a history of struggling offensively is that they have to worry about developing their blocking game in addition to working on their receiving assignments. Reed apparently doesn't have to worry about the blocking game at all, just like Aaron Hernandez didn't. So I can see Reed having a very successful rookie campaign just like Aaron Hernandez did, especially considering Reed is on pace for a lot more targets than Hernandez got in his rookie season.
Also, it wasn't a case of Hernandez getting better as the season went on. Through 5 games, Hernandez had 22 receptions for 301 yards (Reed, by comparison, has 26 for 298). The rest of the way, Hernandez averaged 2.5 receptions for 29 yards.
My initial impulse was to bring up Jimmy Graham, but... Here's something from the above article:I bolded a non-trivial statement from my last post. Hernandez was targeted 64 times in his rookie season; Jordan Reed would have to average under 3.5 targets a game for the rest of the season to finish the year with that few targets. Barring some type of injury, I don't see that being a likely scenario, particularly considering Reed has gotten 6 or more targets in 4 of 5 games he's played and his snap count has been on the rise since the season started, albeit unevenly.As a rookie, Aaron Hernandez averaged... 3.2 receptions and 40.2 yards per game. Pretty much bang-on what I was predicting for Reed going forward.
I'm guessing a big part of why rookie TEs have a history of struggling offensively is that they have to worry about developing their blocking game in addition to working on their receiving assignments. Reed apparently doesn't have to worry about the blocking game at all, just like Aaron Hernandez didn't. So I can see Reed having a very successful rookie campaign just like Aaron Hernandez did, especially considering Reed is on pace for a lot more targets than Hernandez got in his rookie season.
Also, it wasn't a case of Hernandez getting better as the season went on. Through 5 games, Hernandez had 22 receptions for 301 yards (Reed, by comparison, has 26 for 298). The rest of the way, Hernandez averaged 2.5 receptions for 29 yards.
I'm all for the predictive power of historical norms, but when dealing with a player who is a TE in name only, like Jordan Reed is, which is something that's really only started to happen in very recent times, I think it's incongruous to compare Reed to past TEs and I'd even say it may be more appropriate to compare him to past WRs. So although the comparison to Hernandez works great, he's really just about the only 'TE' I can think of who played the kind of role that Reed is currently playing in his respective rookie season, which obviously isn't much of a sample size to be making historical comparisons.
And that made me think maybe we have seen this before:
You raise a lot of good points which are inarguably true. The problem is that, for any given player, there are always reasons why they will be the one to completely defy history. With the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to see why those reasons were wrong or misleading. Defying history is hard, even for "TEs-in-name-only" like Reed.I bolded a non-trivial statement from my last post. Hernandez was targeted 64 times in his rookie season; Jordan Reed would have to average under 3.5 targets a game for the rest of the season to finish the year with that few targets. Barring some type of injury, I don't see that being a likely scenario, particularly considering Reed has gotten 6 or more targets in 4 of 5 games he's played and his snap count has been on the rise since the season started, albeit unevenly.As a rookie, Aaron Hernandez averaged... 3.2 receptions and 40.2 yards per game. Pretty much bang-on what I was predicting for Reed going forward.
I'm guessing a big part of why rookie TEs have a history of struggling offensively is that they have to worry about developing their blocking game in addition to working on their receiving assignments. Reed apparently doesn't have to worry about the blocking game at all, just like Aaron Hernandez didn't. So I can see Reed having a very successful rookie campaign just like Aaron Hernandez did, especially considering Reed is on pace for a lot more targets than Hernandez got in his rookie season.
Also, it wasn't a case of Hernandez getting better as the season went on. Through 5 games, Hernandez had 22 receptions for 301 yards (Reed, by comparison, has 26 for 298). The rest of the way, Hernandez averaged 2.5 receptions for 29 yards.
I'm all for the predictive power of historical norms, but when dealing with a player who is a TE in name only, like Jordan Reed is, which is something that's really only started to happen in very recent times, I think it's incongruous to compare Reed to past TEs and I'd even say it may be more appropriate to compare him to past WRs. So although the comparison to Hernandez works great, he's really just about the only 'TE' I can think of who played the kind of role that Reed is currently playing in his respective rookie season, which obviously isn't much of a sample size to be making historical comparisons.
He was in on the last drive -- he dropped the ball which led to the last INT.
Didn't see that play, but he has a good game even with apparently one bad play. Clearly a top target for Griffin
He took himself out at least twice today for brief periods of time.
Depends on starting lineup. If you can start more than one TE, he's worth a mid to high first. If you start 1 TE and 2-3 RB, 3-4 WR, then a late first might be okay but I'd still want more.
