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Jordan Reed - TE - SF (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
cstu
Footballguy
Bloom is the only one being concerned about him in dynasty (TE13). Almost everyone else has him TE6 or higher.
I'd much rather have young guys without concussion issues over him (Green, Eifert, Ertz).
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Everybody has risks. Eifert, Ertz, and Green have much lower risks that a concussion will end their career. Jordan Reed has a much lower risk that he's simply not all that good.
Jordan Reed, through the first 8 games of his career, was on pace for 88 receptions and over 1000 yards of offense. As a rookie. Tight end. Who started the year coming off the bench. After a so-so start, he topped 50 yards in six consecutive games. For some context, you know Tony Gonzalez? He did that three times in his entire career. Tony Gonzalez first went six straight games with 50+ yards in 2005, by which point he already had six pro bowls and 4 first-team AP All Pro awards. Jordan Reed did it in the 3rd-8th games of his career, and could have made it seven straight (something Gonzo never accomplished) if it weren't for his concussion.
It is impossible to understate just how absurd Jordan Reed's production last year was from a historical standpoint. If he had a clean bill of health and he finished the year like he started it, I think he'd be the slam-dunk #3 dynasty TE, and might even be pushing hard to join Graham and Gronk in tier 1.
steveski
Footballguy
I didn't read any of this thread up until this point, so maybe somebody has debunked this, but the Redskins had no receiving options last year and a TE is a struggling QB's best friend. Don't you think maybe that had something to do with his numbers?
RG3 should improve this year and the addition of Desean gives him another real threat to throw to besides Garcon.
Milkman
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Lots of TEs have played for teams with no other options and a struggling QB. Most of them don't accomplish in their first half-season something that took the great Tony Gonzalez nearly a decade. Lots of TEs have been drafted into good situations. None of them- literally no rookie tight end since Hall of Famer Mike Ditka- has ever put up numbers like Jordan Reed's.
Besides, Washington had Garcon around. Fred Davis was once considered a pretty good TE. Teams have had worse 3rd options than a clearly-past-his-sell-by-date Santana Moss. If you had asked before the season "do you think a 3-13 team with middle-of-the-pack passing statistics will constitute such a great situation that some player is going to demolish every modern rookie record for his position?", I doubt very many people would have said yes.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Which is why I don't have him as my dynasty TE3, pushing hard to join Gronk and Graham in tier 1.
cstu
Footballguy
Keith Jackson playing with a running QB (Cunningham) on a team with few receiving options had 81/869/6.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
And Jordan Reed's numbers through 8 games would pro-rate to 88/974/6, with another 36 yards rushing. That's 7 more receptions and 141 more yards than Jackson had. Keith Jackson had a phenomenal rookie season- it joins Jeremy Shockey, John Mackey, Dave Parks, and Charle Young in the pantheon of great rookie seasons by a TE. Jordan Reed's season, through 8 games, was better.
Here's a complete list of every tight end in history to average more yards per game than Jordan Reed as a rookie: Mike Ditka
Here's a complete list of every tight end in history to average more receptions per game than Jordan Reed as a rookie:
JFS171
Footballguy
Everyone pointing to DeSean being added and Gruden as the new HC is conveniently ignoring the fact that Reed's TE coach was named OC and raved about Reed when being named to that position.
The concussion issues are/were severe. Let's remember though that LeSean McCoy left a game on November 19.2012 and didn't return to action until a month later, and played rather sparingly down the stretch. Granted, he doesn't have a history of concussions prior, but he had a very serious concussion and missed a month. I don't see that affecting his dynasty stock now.
The concussion issues are/were severe. Let's remember though that LeSean McCoy left a game on November 19.2012 and didn't return to action until a month later, and played rather sparingly down the stretch. Granted, he doesn't have a history of concussions prior, but he had a very serious concussion and missed a month. I don't see that affecting his dynasty stock now.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Are we throwing out random stats without context? I've got some.
Griffin averaged 8.1 YPA as a rookie and 7.0 YPA as a sophomore.
Griffin threw a TD on 5.1% of his passes as a rookie and 3.5% of his passes as a sophomore.
Pierre Garcon received 182 targets last year and 134 in his previous career-best season.
Pierre Garcon is 5'11", Desean Jackson is 5'9", Andre Roberts is 5'11", and Jordan Reed is 6'3".
Also, this is not a statistic, but very, very few players do not ever improve as players from where they were as rookies.
I have concerns about Jordan Reed. His ability to produce when healthy is not among them.
I believe Reed is 6'2. But understood on the relative height aspect.
What do you think about his catch rate of 77% last year when RGIII was throwing him the ball? I would think that is pretty high and should regress some. Agree, disagree?
cstu
Footballguy
It doesn't seem out of context - RG3 threw almost 50% more than he did in 2012.
His pace last year would work out to over 600 attempts, I don't think he maintains that pace this year. With the addition of Jackson and few attempts there will be less for Reed.
Reed is going to get a lot of targets as he's a big part of the offense but I think it's unrealistic to think he'll repeat last year.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I personally think that Garcon's targets are more likely to fall off a cliff than are Reed's, but IMO this is going to be one of the harder teams to project this year d/t all of the different variables.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I read it to mean that Reed has shown more, and, thus, is less likely to be exposed as not very good.
3quinox
Footballguy
Same. He phrased it by using a double negative but he is still pro Reed. I think what was meant is that Reed has shown already that he has the ability to play at a high level in the NFL where as the others haven't had "break out seasons" yet. Ultimately that Reed has already showed he is good and that is not a risk or question people have anymore. All you really hear is the concussion history, not that he was a fluke.
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SproutDaddy
Footballguy
For those worried about Jackson and Garcon, how do you explain his situation different from Julius Thomas last year?
Nucker101
Footballguy
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Could be. What about Atlanta with Gonzalez, Jones, and White?
FUBAR
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
Browns even had Cameron and Gordon.
Not a 3rd but RG3 should be better than the group Cleveland had last year.
fatness
Footballguy
I'm a Redskin fan and I really, really want Reed to be healthy. LB's just could not cover him; he was open a lot and has good hands. But the way his concussion symptoms dragged on week after week last year has me very concerned for the longevity of his NFL career. And the revelation now that his concussion symptoms started much earlier than he let anyone know only increases that concern.
The Redskins don't have another pass-catching TE than Reed, and I think they've left themselves far too vulnerable at that position. I have no inside information; I just think his NFL career is likely to total 2 or 3 years tops due to concussion problems.
I hope I'm wrong.
The Redskins don't have another pass-catching TE than Reed, and I think they've left themselves far too vulnerable at that position. I have no inside information; I just think his NFL career is likely to total 2 or 3 years tops due to concussion problems.
I hope I'm wrong.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
I'm thinking of acquiring him in my dynasty as a backup for Jimmy Graham. Owner has a surplus of TEs. What's his value at this point? I was thinking of offering my 2.10.
tone1oc
Footballguy
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I see. So Jordan is not less likely to not be bad.Concept Coop said:
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Really? That's why I asked. With the concussion situation I wouldn't give a first.
3quinox
Footballguy
He's worth at least a 1.06. The TE position can give you such an advantage. Personally I'd want a mid first AND a mid tier TE like heath miller for him. As Adam said without the injury history he'd be in the elite tier. I wouldn't sell because I won't get close to the value he actually is. I'd say after four games with no injury issues people will be to late in trying to buy him.
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tone1oc
Footballguy
I hear what you are saying with not paying a first, but I think a mid to late first is probably appropriate. I think a lot of people were able to buy him low and he is kind of in a wait and hold mode for most owners. At least thats the case for me, if I'm going to part with him it will have to be a good deal for me.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Would you rather have Jordan Reed or Eric Ebron?Where do you think Ebron will be drafted in your rookie draft?
Answering those two questions should give you a pretty rough ballpark for Reed's value in terms of rookie picks.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I'm certainly not going to sit here and say that I've never said any such thing.I see. So Jordan is not less likely to not be bad.Concept Coop said:
Drop
Footballguy
Can this have it's own thread? Next article? I want to learn more about this. Seems counter intuitive.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I really need to stop using double negatives. By "few players don't improve", I meant "most players do improve".
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Reed had an all-time great season for a rookie, but it wasn't an all-time great season for a TE. It's not like Ditka's rookie season where there was nowhere to go but down. Reed still has plenty of room to improve without reaching beyond the realms of sanity and rational expectation. I didn't directly address the pass attempts, but I tried to address it indirectly. I agree that the number of attempts will likely come down (not by 25% to his rookie average, though). I think that will be largely offset by an increase in Griffin's YPA (again, not all the way back to his rookie averages, though).
Still, Washington had a pretty good receiving corps. Bucky Brooks ranked the best groups in the NFL and had Washington #1. I don't agree with him, but the point is it's gone from a major liability to a strength. Given that, I would expect Washington to pass the ball a pretty fair amount.
cstu
Footballguy
It sounds like I'm anti-Reed, but I just think something has to give with the targets and not all of it will come from Garcon. These targets alone (26) are what Griffin threw in total to all his receivers in 2012.
DJax - almost 8 targets/game
Reed - 7 targets/game
Garcon - 11 targets/game
Even if you assume he throws slightly more than 2012 and is more efficient (YPA and TD%) those targets have to come down.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I don't think it's a stretch to say that Darrell Jackson will open up plenty of intermediate routes that weren't there for Jordan in 2013. I think the only thing that prevents Jordan from finishing in the top five for TEs this year is the concussion risk.
fatness
Footballguy
karmarooster
Footballguy
How many targets are we expecting for Reed in 2014?
Seems like Griffin's passing attempts were inflated last year due to the epically bad defense. But IMO the defense is still bad (resigned moneybags D. Hall at CB)... they do get Sackpo back. With the new HC passing 580 times with Dalton, I would think that Griffin will be right up there around 600.
Reed's 7 targets per game work out to 112 targets on the season. I doubt Garcon has 180 targets again, but I would expect 150+, with DeSean coming in somewhere between 100-125. I have no idea on Roberts, as they signed him before DeSean.
Point being - I think 100ish targets is the ceiling for Reed with all of the other mouths to feed. 75% catch rate last year, that's unusually high, but even at 65-70% gives him 65-70 receptions. His YPR might get a bump if DeSean is clearing out the safeties, so maybe 12 YPR (up from 11.1 last year), so 780-840 yards. I doubt he hits what he was being pro-rated at as a rookie... not because his skills don't improve from rookie year to 2nd year (which they should), but because the offense got so much more crowded with the additions of DeSean and Roberts.
If you ADD the concussion risk on top of a capped ceiling for the next couple years... I can see a sell high window here. And I'm pretty big on Reed, having broke the bank to bid on him as my TE2 behind Cameron last year. Ertz is kind of in the same boat for targets (too many other options)... but Ladarius Green just might fit the bill. Same for Rudolph.
Seems like Griffin's passing attempts were inflated last year due to the epically bad defense. But IMO the defense is still bad (resigned moneybags D. Hall at CB)... they do get Sackpo back. With the new HC passing 580 times with Dalton, I would think that Griffin will be right up there around 600.
Reed's 7 targets per game work out to 112 targets on the season. I doubt Garcon has 180 targets again, but I would expect 150+, with DeSean coming in somewhere between 100-125. I have no idea on Roberts, as they signed him before DeSean.
Point being - I think 100ish targets is the ceiling for Reed with all of the other mouths to feed. 75% catch rate last year, that's unusually high, but even at 65-70% gives him 65-70 receptions. His YPR might get a bump if DeSean is clearing out the safeties, so maybe 12 YPR (up from 11.1 last year), so 780-840 yards. I doubt he hits what he was being pro-rated at as a rookie... not because his skills don't improve from rookie year to 2nd year (which they should), but because the offense got so much more crowded with the additions of DeSean and Roberts.
If you ADD the concussion risk on top of a capped ceiling for the next couple years... I can see a sell high window here. And I'm pretty big on Reed, having broke the bank to bid on him as my TE2 behind Cameron last year. Ertz is kind of in the same boat for targets (too many other options)... but Ladarius Green just might fit the bill. Same for Rudolph.
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Faust
MVP
cstu
Footballguy
A couple things:
- The Bengals threw more to RB's.
- Dalton ran 61 times in 16 games. RG3 ran 82 times in 13 games (120 times in 15 games the year before).
I don't expect Griffin to have much more than 550 attempts.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
You're rounding up on his targets, though. He had 6.56 targets per game, or 105 over a full 16. The following TEs topped 6.5 targets per game last year: Graham, Gronk, Gonzo, Cameron, Gates, Witten, Olsen, and Garrett Graham. Charles Clay and Julius Thomas both topped 6.4 targets per game. That's a third of the league that had a TE in the same neighborhood of targets as Reed, ranging over a wide variety of different situations. It wasn't a remarkable or unsustainable rate of targets.
That target rate for Reed is partly weighed down by his final game, where he got injured after one target. Over the first 8 games, he was averaging 7.25 targets per game, which is rarer company (basically, your 4 Gs of future Hall-of-fame TEs: Gronk, Graham, Gonzo, Gates). That's a pretty lofty group, and Reed will have a harder time keeping pace with them. But, again, even if he falls back down to 6.5 targets per game, that's a 10% drop, and could easily be offset by a 10% increase in Griffin's efficiency.
Would it really be surprising to see Reed and DJax each getting 6.5 targets per game (105 for the season), Garcon getting 8 (130 for the season), and everyone else getting another 10 per game between them? That's only 31 attempts per game for Griffin, or 500 for the full season. That would have been the fourth-lowest passing attempt total in the league last year, so these are very conservative numbers. Maybe Garcon gets 10 and everyone else gets 8. Maybe Garcon gets 9 and DJax gets 7.5. Maybe Griffin throws for 33 per game. Maybe Reed manages to top 7 attempts per game again.
There are definitely situations where I see teams having trouble supporting all of their targets like people expect, but I don't think Washington is one of them. I think it's very easy to see where all the targets are going to come from for Jordan Reed, especially remembering that high-end TE production is much less target-intense than high-end WR production.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
If Washington drops Reed's targets, it will be for a reason other than that they simply don't have enough targets to go around for Garcon, Jackson, and Reed. Like I pointed out with the numbers, it would be easy as pie for Washington to carve out 6.5-7 targets per game for Reed if they were so inclined.
Talking about Robert Griffin's rookie-year numbers isn't particularly relevant. Robert Griffin isn't a rookie anymore. Ben Roethlisberger only averaged 21 pass attempts per game as a rookie. 28 attempts per game would put Washington on pace to throw fewer passes than anyone except for the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers, which I really don't see happening unless they somehow manage to trade for Richard Sherman, Patrick Willis, and half of the defenders in the NFC West. The league average for pass attempts last year was 35 per game. I get that 38 per game was a lot more than Washington had the year before, but it wouldn't even land Washington in the upper quartile of the league in pass attempts. Even if you think Washington is going to be below average in attempts, Griffin could/should easily get 31-33 attempts per game. There will be plenty of opportunity to support Jordan Reed as a high-end fantasy TE1, should his coaches be inclined to do so.
