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Jordan Reed - TE - SF (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Here is my shotgun April breakdown of Reed by the way:
http://www.fftoolboxforums.com/index.php?showtopic=30484&hl=
Kind of like if you were looking at Welker and saying "Damn that guy is short. That guy is slow. He's small. He's never gonna be able to play outside or run the full route tree" instead of saying "Damn, that guy's a perfect slot WR. If anyone ever makes a commitment to getting him the ball, he'll be murder." Which is probably where Miami and San Diego really screwed the pooch with Welker.
http://www.fftoolboxforums.com/index.php?showtopic=30484&hl=
I think that's a fair assessment even if the numerical ranking is an eye sore in hindsight. It's pretty much the same take as I provided above. I think my big mistake was looking at him too much from the perspective of a traditional TE prospect instead of appreciating how his niche role might make him a perfect option for FF.
Kind of like if you were looking at Welker and saying "Damn that guy is short. That guy is slow. He's small. He's never gonna be able to play outside or run the full route tree" instead of saying "Damn, that guy's a perfect slot WR. If anyone ever makes a commitment to getting him the ball, he'll be murder." Which is probably where Miami and San Diego really screwed the pooch with Welker.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's not a niche anymore and it hasn't been for a while (long snapper?!). Washington hasn't built their offense around Reed; yet, he's been very effective and has flat out won the job. He's simply too talented not to be on the field, despite his below average blocking ability.
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EBF
Footballguy
If we can agree that a TE is a player with both blocking and receiving responsibilities, then yes any player who only fulfills a fraction of those duties is a niche player.
That doesn't say anything about his FF value. Wes Welker is a niche player and he's been one of the best FF WRs of the past decade.
If Reed :: Tony Gonzalez what Welker :: Terrell Owens, that isn't meant to be some massive slight against him.
It's just an accurate characterization of his game. He can't block a dummy and is purely a receiving specialist.
That doesn't say anything about his FF value. Wes Welker is a niche player and he's been one of the best FF WRs of the past decade.
If Reed :: Tony Gonzalez what Welker :: Terrell Owens, that isn't meant to be some massive slight against him.
It's just an accurate characterization of his game. He can't block a dummy and is purely a receiving specialist.
jeeb
Footballguy
You know who else was an undersized TE that hardly blocked? Shannon Sharpe.
You know who is a gigantic TE but hardly blocks? Jimmy Graham
This is fantasy football. My league doesn't award points for run blocking.
And as a Skins fan who has seen every snap, on the occasions Reed has been asked to block, he has held his own and certainly hasn't been outmatched. So, he can certainly block a dummy...maybe even a muppet. The Shanahans realize that outside of Garcon, Jordan Reed is their next best offensive weapon and they are lining up Reed next to the tackle, in the slot, out wide, in the backfield.
Miami traded Welker to NE for a 2nd round draft pick. That sounds like at least a pretty big fuss to me.
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Wooderson
Fight The Power
EBF
Footballguy
Much ado about nothing. I said from the get-go that there was interesting upside if the team committed to his strengths. What I didn't know was whether or not his limited skill set would prevent him from being a full-time player. It hasn't. End of story.
As far as Welker goes, a 2nd round pick was awful value considering the production that he provided New England. 100+ catches and 1000+ yards per season on average. In hindsight, you don't look at that trade and think, "Man, Miami got great value for Welker." They got hosed.
ETA: That's not even to mention the Chargers, who cut Welker very early in his rookie season after he made the 53 man roster. What happened there? Most likely a similar phenomenon. Instead of focusing on the few things he does exceptionally well, their coaches probably evaluated him in terms of how he fits the standard WR mold. Just like what seems to have happened with Reed in FF, the people who looked at the positives (Belichick) were able to get great value because the people who evaluated Welker in terms of his overall skill set (Miami, San Diego) made a faulty assessment of his value.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
People often confuse "didn't" with "can't". Welker's run plenty of deep routes for Denver this year (deep = 20+ yards downfield). I'd have to go back and check, but I'm pretty sure Welker has more deep targets than Demaryius this year (for sure he did going into tonight's game against Indy, but Demaryius was targeted on a lot of deep balls tonight).
Harvin and Demaryius actually got similar criticisms coming into the league. Many said both WRs couldn't run a pro-style route tree simply because they didn't in college. Likewise, it's easy to say now that Jordan Reed has limited skills. I say we give him a couple of years before resigning him to "niche player" status.
But yeah, he totally can't block a lick, and I don't see that changing much any time soon. Like I've said all along, though... if a TE's job is to block and to catch, and a team spends a high pick on a TE who can't block, what do you think they're going to use him for?
EBF
Footballguy
Considering that I was using this argument to defend both of those guys before they came into the league, I think I'm aware of that.
Hello 2009!
This was a good one:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=454709&page=5#entry9947809
Another fun one:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=367315&page=10#entry9567975
And especially this one:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=367315&p=9568135
What you are talking about is a different phenomenon though. The mistake that people made looking at Harvin was focusing on his usage rather than his athletic ability. He was used in a gimmicky niche role at Florida, but he always had all of the athletic parts to run every route. In other words, there was nothing deficient in him. Only in people who confused his usage with his skill set.
Reed is a different beast because, unlike Harvin and Thomas, he has far great natural physical limitations that dictate how he can/can't be used. Namely, he's both really short and really light for a TE. Those aren't qualities of his usage. Those are qualities of his skill set that dictate his usage. The argument that you're making has no relevance to Reed and would be more applicable to someone like Jimmy Graham, who probably COULD be a dominating blocker but isn't asked to be.
Reed is clearly defined as an athlete. Undersized receiving specialist TE with limited bulk. None of that is to say that he won't be massively productive in the NFL.
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MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
He's on pace for an Aaron Hernandez like 80/900/6. Let's hope he doesn't kill anyone.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Reed isn't the tall monster that Gronk and Graham are, but he's 6'2". Taller than Hernandez. Not as thick, of course. But he's being used very similarly, which, along with his receiving ability and RG3's love is where his fantasy value comes from.
Don't evaluate him on his physical specs compared to other TE's. Compare him to WR's that play faster than they time, because that's what he is.
He lined up out wide today and caught a fade in the endzone for a TD. He doesn't look like a TE, doesn't play like a TE, and isn't asked or expected to. He just lines up there sometimes. He's a natural, smooth receiver before and after the catch, and he's got great hands. And he plays everywhere. The fact that the Redskins are committed to not making him block often at the TE position is good for his fantasy value, because that means he's out running routes.
Look at Vernon Davis. A less natural receiver, but great measurements, a bit taller, and a great blocker. Much closer to being the "prototype" TE. And yet his blocking prowess has actually been a detriment to his fantasy value, as he's so good at it that he spends a ton of time doing it. Blocking is a tricky thing. You want them to be good enough to get all the snaps they can handle on the field. But not so good that it's a viable option to use them as a 6th OL out there. Or, you need the team to just not care, using them like a WR. See: Graham on the Saints, Hernandez on the Pats, Reed on the Redskins. Maybe Julius Thomas on the Broncos.
Don't evaluate him on his physical specs compared to other TE's. Compare him to WR's that play faster than they time, because that's what he is.
He lined up out wide today and caught a fade in the endzone for a TD. He doesn't look like a TE, doesn't play like a TE, and isn't asked or expected to. He just lines up there sometimes. He's a natural, smooth receiver before and after the catch, and he's got great hands. And he plays everywhere. The fact that the Redskins are committed to not making him block often at the TE position is good for his fantasy value, because that means he's out running routes.
Look at Vernon Davis. A less natural receiver, but great measurements, a bit taller, and a great blocker. Much closer to being the "prototype" TE. And yet his blocking prowess has actually been a detriment to his fantasy value, as he's so good at it that he spends a ton of time doing it. Blocking is a tricky thing. You want them to be good enough to get all the snaps they can handle on the field. But not so good that it's a viable option to use them as a 6th OL out there. Or, you need the team to just not care, using them like a WR. See: Graham on the Saints, Hernandez on the Pats, Reed on the Redskins. Maybe Julius Thomas on the Broncos.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
Makes you wonder what Mike Williams could have done with better coaching. Reed is more comparable to colston than Graham or a typical TE.
at EBF feeling like he has to defend his analysis vehemently here. His eval of reed was pretty much right, but way off in how that skill set would translate in Washington.
at EBF feeling like he has to defend his analysis vehemently here. His eval of reed was pretty much right, but way off in how that skill set would translate in Washington.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Hernandez seems like the best comp.
Otis
Footballguy
Agree, and I think he moves and runs routes like Hernandez.
I don't understand the overemphasis on Reed being "acutely undersized"??
Reed lists at 6'2", 243 lbs, according to sportsline. Hernandez was 6'1", 245 lbs. So the size is very close there. And at 243 lbs as a rookie, we might expect Reed to easily put on 10lbs with another season in an NFL strength program under his belt. Is 6'2" 255 or so THAT small for a TE?
Seems like a lot of griping about nothing. And in any event, he's plenty big for his role as a receiver. Which is the only reason any of us really cares about him anyway.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Just looking at his quick and dirty SOS the rest of the season on MFL, he faces exactly 2 top 20 defenses for the rest of the season. He gets the 9ers in week 12 and KC in 14.
Other than that he's got a cakewalk starting with Denver this week followed by the Chargers, Vikes, and Eagles. Could be the new Cameron.
Other than that he's got a cakewalk starting with Denver this week followed by the Chargers, Vikes, and Eagles. Could be the new Cameron.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I've quietly been on this hype train all along, has served me well waiting on Gronk getting back. Now he just may have some trade value. Glad the waiver wire was picked over by the time the news came out that Gronk would be active. I would have surely dropped him had it not been for a picked over wire.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
In dynasty do you prefer Reed or Eifert? I drafted Eifert and picked up Reed after like week 2. Also have Gronkowski and Bennett lol (so sue me I loaded up where I could...lol).
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree. I think its a case of confirmation bias from EBF more than anything. He takes shot after shot at Reed in his analysis. Look I don't give a #### if he can't block really, I like a WR with a TE designation.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I was talking some about this on Twitter yesterday. My last TE rankings were two weeks ago, and I'm doing another update this week. Last time, I had Reed at TE11. This week, I think he'll be settling in the 6-8 range. Gronk, Graham, and Cameron are easy calls over Reed. Julius Thomas, too- I do agree with EBF that he's not as talented as the three guys ahead of him, but at some point... who cares? He produces, and I believe he's good enough to continue doing so even without Peyton. I also still prefer Eifert to Reed, but that gap is much smaller than it was a couple of weeks ago. I'm still a big believer in Eifert in the long-term.
After those five, who would you put over Reed? Vernon and Witten would seem to be the next guys up, and Vernon I could see, but Reed is currently producing like Witten and is EIGHT years younger, so I'd prefer Reed at this point. I'm pretty sure Vernon will still wind up ahead of Reed, but I get skittish about Davis sometimes just because his usage is so streaky (Kaepernick forgets about him for huge stretches), and because I wonder what happens in the long term once Crabtree is back. I remember well Vernon's disappearing act down the stretch last year. If Davis was 26 or 27, I'd be more okay with that, but at 29... well, there's a lot more downside.
So, to sum it up, I'm thinking Reed is going to check in at 7th in my next batch of dynasty rankings, right behind Vernon Davis and ahead of Witten, Finley, and Olsen.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Tier
layer(s)T1:Gronk/Graham
T2:Cameron
T3:Thomas
T4:Eifert/Reed
T5: Witten/Davis
I'm in a similar situation, but I'm considering trading Gronk for a RB instead. Reed has looked good, but I doubt if I'm able to get a legitimate RB in my keeper league for Reed, whereas I might be able to swing one for Gronkowski. Do we think Reed is reliable enough at TE to roll with him for the ROS?
ffldrew
Footballguy
We allow TE's in the flex position and I thought of the same about trading Gronk for RB help - but now I'm not so sure and thinking of using them both with one in flex.
EBF
Footballguy
I think you're a little off the mark with your comparisons. Here are the combine heights/weights for those guys:
Jordan Reed: 6'2.4" 236
Aaron Hernandez: 6'2.3" 245
Vernon Davis: 6'3.2" 254
Hernandez was ten pounds heavier at the same height. Davis was nearly 20 pounds heavier at less than an inch taller. To put that into perspective, it's pretty similar to the difference between AJ Jenkins and Justin Blackmon (one of whom is a pure finesse player and the other of whom is a physical possession/YAC receiver). Davis also did 33 bench press reps at the combine, which is about average for a first round offensive guard.
The more significant point, which I agree with, is that Reed is big enough for his role. Which will basically be slot receiver masquerading as a TE.
If you want to evaluate him as a standard two-way TE, it's totally fair to say he's way undersized, small, and weak.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
[SIZE=10.5pt]Functionally, Reed is the same size as Hernandez. He’s a little longer and little smaller in the upper-body. Reed is bottom heavy, while Hernandez is built more evenly, with a stronger upper body. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]I just don't understand the tone: When it's Graham, it's a good thing that he's a WR playing TE. When it's Reed, it's a negative and a reason to stick with your pre-draft stance. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]At some point you have to step away from the measurements. Reed is a mismatch and already the best non-QB weapon option on his team. This as a QB convert injured through camp, 7 weeks in to his NFL career. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]You're using niche as a negative term, and, again, as justification for your pre-draft stance. This is a FF forum. At TE, being what you describe as a niche player is a VERY good thing. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]This isn't smoke and mirrors. He's a mismatch. [/SIZE]
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
whats his BMI??????Concept Coop said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
Phenix
Footballguy
Speaking Monday, Redskins coach Mike Shanahan said TE Jordan Reed suffered a hip pointer in Sunday's win, but "should be OK."
The injury wasn't an issue against the Bears, and is little more than a day-to-day affair. Perhaps Reed will get in a limited practice or two, but he should be fine for Week 8. His status will be updated on Wednesday.
The injury wasn't an issue against the Bears, and is little more than a day-to-day affair. Perhaps Reed will get in a limited practice or two, but he should be fine for Week 8. His status will be updated on Wednesday.
Otis
Footballguy
I agree with that two weeks ago.
I think the team deactivating a healthy Fred Davis this past weekend, though, speaks volumes.
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I'm picking him up this week with my waiver priority. He's going to be my backup to Cameron. But I'm hoping his talent and oppurtunity allow me to make Cameron expendable. I'm very excited about this kid.
Who says there's not good content in the shark pool anymore!?
Who says there's not good content in the shark pool anymore!?
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Bronco_in_AUS
Footballguy
As a Garcon & Reed owner, can these 2 co-exist? My feeling is they can with Garcon the deep threat and Reed playing the possession type receiver. My other TE is M.Bennett who has been serviceable but with the QB sitch looking shaky, im hoping to rely on Reed.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I wouldn't expect more of the same going forward. As I mentioned, Jordan Reed is on pace to match or exceed the best marks for r/g and ypg by a rookie TE since 1980. He's basically performing at a Jeremy Shockey pace right now. I know that TE production is up across the entire league, but this is still a ridiculously high level of production for a rookie TE.Bayhawks said:
With that said, I do think 40 yards per game is a pretty achievable figure going forward. If you took his RoS numbers and pro-rated them to 16 games, I'd expect them to be about the equivalent to a 60/640/6 type season. Solid starter, not a huge difference-maker.
I'd think so. I'm a Cameron and Gordon owner and with Hoyer ( a serviceable QB) they were most certainly coexisting with weeden hardly they hardly exist at all.
Rg3 is a good QB and I feel like both will be able to have good games simultaneously.
Spaces Lines and Laces
Footballguy
Rg3 has been far from dominant. He has room to improve upon his #'s. And Garcon was having some gawdy #'s. Maybe he has a slight downtick, but I think someone posted a few weeks ago saying he was extrapolating to 115 catches, 1300 something yards?
Maybe you bump him down to 80-90 catches, 1100 yards--which is still really good.
Maybe you bump him down to 80-90 catches, 1100 yards--which is still really good.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Agreed. Why cares how Reed rates as a two-way tight end? I mean seriously, who cares? When was the last time someone made a note about Desean Jackson's blocking skills when discussing his fantasy value? How many fantasy football owners can name the 10 best blocking RBs in the NFL right now? Nobody cares how good their fantasy players are at blocking. If it's not costing the player playing time (and with Reed, as with Julius Thomas and Jimmy Graham, it's clearly not), then it's a footnote or an anecdote, nothing more. How Jordan Reed grades out as a two-way TE is as interesting to me as how Jamaal Charles would grade out as a fullback. I'm interested in how Jordan Reed grades out as a receiver. From the looks of it, he grades out pretty well.
In other words, Jordan Reed is really good at doing the things that score me fantasy points.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Any decent passing offense can easily support two fantasy-relevant receivers, especially if one is a WR and one is a TE (since the bar for fantasy relevance is lower at TE). I've got no concerns about Garcon and Reed coexisting, unless and until Hankerson or Robinson start looking like unstoppable studs, too.
Spaces Lines and Laces
Footballguy
For laughs...
In my PPR league, Reed got 28, my opponent had Peyton--who only got 25
In my PPR league, Reed got 28, my opponent had Peyton--who only got 25
FUBAR
Footballguy
Honestly, I think they are an ideal combo. Deep / short, big play / move the chains. QB with potential to be great, very good running back who doesn't catch many passes...
Couple things:The blocking thing *was* costing Reed snaps before this week.
TE is unique in that being a bad blocker *can* be an advantage in FF. Of course it can also be a major problem: see Cook, Jared.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Good point. Him being a rookie was one of the things I was trying to remind myself of. I just wish there was a way I could get him in my lineup, but even though I think he has loads of potential, I can't start him over Gronkowski.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
You know I love you SSOG, but have some issues with your take.
He isnt just a "TE". He is as much a WR once the ball is snapped. Particularly for Washington.
He is literally the lightest TE in the fantasy top 35 of TEs.
>>> Removing his best game >>> 164 yards in 4 games played is 41 yards per contest and playing only 47.75% of the snaps. Now if he plays 80% of the snaps? Think about that. You said 40 ypg?
To me it would seem very odd for his play to increase (which it is) and his targets (and thus opportunities) to decrease below what he did in limited play time.
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