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Official Tom Brady - bust alert (in 2013)

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8 hours ago, JoeSteeler said:

What is his value in dynasty? 16 team leagues. 

Not much. I don't think anyone would pay more than 2 3rds. Don't think he'll fetch a 2nd.

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9 unanswered questions after Patriots minicamp

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Will Tom Brady ever start to look old?: 

TB12’s 2019 debut on the practice fields behind Gillette Stadium was an impressive one. From the bounce in his step as he took his cheery first stride onto the practice surface to his efficient production in the three-day camp, Brady looked every bit the part of the clear franchise QB that he is. Sooner or later he may start to look old as he approaches his 42nd birthday, but it’s not happening yet. If you did a blind taste test of passers on the practice field you would never guess that the guy in the No. 12 jersey is, according to some, on the verge of falling off the cliff while two of the other guys were young, upstart, strong-armed passers. Not surprising but also worth noting, Brady looked great.

 

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1 hour ago, Faust said:

I expect if research was completed on how all team's did with a star player out, there would be very similar results across the board. The other factor not considered in how teams did without their star receiving threat is that there would have been limited time for the team to adjust for a sudden injury.

By that I mean, it's a lot different when a team has a player go down suddenly and misses time, having to revamp the game plan, and not having months and months to prepare for it. In this case, the Pats know there is no Gronk to start the season and can make appropriate arrangements. With an injury in the middle of the season, they would have had to go to Plan B on the fly.

Based on that, I would expect both Brady and NE to do better than expected in making up for the lack of Gronk. What's interesting (to me at least) is Brady has the same type of results when Edelman hasn't played (probably worse than when Gronk has been out). Again, probably not that surprising when you think about it. Take away a primary receiving threat from any top QB and the QB's numbers will suffer.

And IMO, also somewhat misleading in that Brady won a ton of games with lots of playoff success before Gronk ever suited up for NE. Yet they won a title with Gronk on IR and won another last year with Gronk having one of hi least productive seasons. I think the Pats will be ok.

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They were destroyed by the Eagles in SB 52 with Gronk so perhaps his involvement is indeed overrated 

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On 6/18/2019 at 9:57 PM, JetMaxx said:

They were destroyed by the Eagles in SB 52 with Gronk so perhaps his involvement is indeed overrated 

Great take.

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Brady is said to have played through an MCL strain for multiple weeks last year, so that would explain his lack of movement in the pocket. Including the post season, Brady averaged 279 passing yards a game, which is basically 4,500 yards over a full season. The biggest difference for Brady was in 19 games he only averaged 1.63 passing TD per game (26 TD over a full season). Gronk wasn't a red zone threat last year and Brady frequently audibled to a run for the team to score at the goal line.

So, sure, Brady with a knee injury showed that he could struggle. And not sure if scoring by handing the ball off instead of throwing it merits consideration as dropping off. NE scored about 1 fewer point a game last year vs. 2017. Again, if that is considered a drop off, so be it.

The other thing to consider for Brady, in recent years he has had a rotating set of receiving options to have to throw to, and that also didn't help his numbers any.

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Tom Brady bulked up to 225 pounds this offseason.

"I wanted to get a little bigger this year and put on a few more pounds and try to absorb the hits a little bit more," Brady said. Turning 42 in just a few short days, 2019 will also be the first time Brady plays on the final year of any contract he's signed in his illustrious 20-year career. His contract situation likely won't be discussed until 2020.

SOURCE: Around The NFL

Jul 31, 2019, 9:02 PM ET

 

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Just to review the numbers for Brady since this thread was started, in that time, NE has gone 84-24 (.778) with him on the field . . . that includes the regular season and the post-season. In those games, he has accounted for 286.5 passing yards and 2.06 TD per game . . . which over a 16-game season would project to 4,854 yards and 33 TD. In those 6 seassons (which includes a full season's worth of 16 games in the post season), Brady compiled a 98.4 passer rating. In league history, only Aaron Rodgers (103.1) and Russell Wilson (100.3) have higher career passer ratings. Those are Brady's numbers from age 36-41.

He's played in 6 AFCGC, winning 4 of them and 4 Super Bowls, winning 3 of them. He also won (or was gifted) a league MVP to go along with 2 SB MVP trophies. In the post season looking only at those 6 seasons, the Patriots have gone 13-3. In NFL history, the only QB's to have more than 13 wins over their entire careers were Montana (16) and Bradshaw, Elway, and Peyton (14). 

Love him or hate him, call him a cheater if you must, and accuse him of taking something to keep him young, but what he has done is nothing short of unbelievable.

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I don't think anyone would deny that Brady has had an unbelievably successful career.  

Looks like he is the 15th ranked current QB this year based on the current ADP, and that sounds about right.  His numbers dipped off last year, especially down the stretch, and at his age, it just isn't realistic for him to produce at a high level (stats wise) every week to make him one of the top fantasy QB's.  He will still have his weeks, and no one will be surprised if he still finishes as a top 10 fantasy QB, but he is 42 now, and not even Tom Brady can hold Father Time off for much longer. 

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3 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

I don't think anyone would deny that Brady has had an unbelievably successful career.  

Looks like he is the 15th ranked current QB this year based on the current ADP, and that sounds about right.  His numbers dipped off last year, especially down the stretch, and at his age, it just isn't realistic for him to produce at a high level (stats wise) every week to make him one of the top fantasy QB's.  He will still have his weeks, and no one will be surprised if he still finishes as a top 10 fantasy QB, but he is 42 now, and not even Tom Brady can hold Father Time off for much longer. 

Brady's numbers really weren't that far off compared to prior seasons. The main difference is the game went so pass crazy last year that others put up better numbers. He had a handful fewer TD passes and a handful more INTs. If people actually watched the Pats play, you would have noticed that 3/4 of his interceptions hit his receivers square in the hands and they muffed the catch and deflected the ball right to a defender's hands. He averaged 21.98 fantasy ppg in 2017 and 21.18 in 2018 (when people said his numbers dropped way off). Put another way, if Brady averaged 21.18 fantasy ppg in 2017, he would have ranked as QB7. But in 2018 that only ranked as QB17.

NE certainly hasn't made it easy on Brady, as other than Edelman, the Patriots have had a revolving door at WR the last few years (with this year being no different). The other thing Brady did more than other years was audible out of passing plays to running plays at the goal line, as there were times when defenses pretty much gave them running lanes to score. That also cut down on Brady's fantasy value.

I certainly don't expect to see Brady's numbers to climb anywhere near a Mahomes level, but he should still be a decent fantasy back up or cheap option in best ball leagues or contests. I would expect NE to run the ball a little more and keep the run / pass ratio close to 50/ 50 . . . which is opposite to what most of the league is trending.

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Patriots signed Tom Brady to a two-year contract extension worth $70 million.

Brady gets a pay raise for the 2019 season -- he's now the sixth-highest paid quarterback at $23 million -- and is now under contract through 2021. NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports Brady will make $30 million in 2020 and $32 million in 2021. It's an extension that's like no other given Brady's age and performance. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the contract is expected to be reworked each season with both sides essentially taking it year-by-year. Brady will be heading into his age-45 season when this contract expires. Maybe Brady will start showing major signs of decline by then.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Aug 4, 2019, 1:33 PM ET

 

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On 8/4/2019 at 2:18 PM, Faust said:

 

This new deal of Brady's automatically voids at the end of this season, and he can't be tagged?  So what did it do?

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15 hours ago, matttyl said:

This new deal of Brady's automatically voids at the end of this season, and he can't be tagged?  So what did it do?

Ian Rapoport‏Verified account @RapSheet

Sources: #Patriots QB Tom Brady’s new deal includes a provision that does not allow NE to franchise or transition tag him for the 2020 season. The final two years automatically void on the last day of the 2019 league year, but he cannot be tagged. Brady will be a free agent.

11:17 AM - 5 Aug 2019

Mark Daniels‏Verified account @MarkDanielsPJ 17h17 hours ago

Brady’s ‘extension’ was simply a placeholder for the 2019 season that gives the QB a raise and the Patriots more cap space.

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This sounds a lot like all parties agreeing that 2019 is going to be TB’s last season.

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I just don't understand the auto-voiding part for the last two years.  What's the point?  So mid March next year, unless the deal has been reworked - he's a total free agent and they can't tag him?  But they can redo the deal before mid March if both parties agree?

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31 minutes ago, matttyl said:

I just don't understand the auto-voiding part for the last two years.  What's the point?  So mid March next year, unless the deal has been reworked - he's a total free agent and they can't tag him?  But they can redo the deal before mid March if both parties agree?

By adding the two dummy years, NE can play with the salary cap hit. If they just gave him $8 million, all that would have hit the cap immediately. By adding two years to the contract, the Pats actually gained $5.5 million in cap space for this year. They will have to take the cap hit eventually. Not sure how the contract as written is legal, but let the league tell us otherwise.

In other news, Brady put his house on the market for $40 million this morning. They are looking at homes in the suburbs of NYC. Also looking at private schools in Manhattan. 

The only reason for the no franchise clause would be if BB doesn’t think Brady has enough left in the tank and feels his performance isn’t worth the salary any longer AND Brady thinks and wants he can still play (and thus would sign elsewhere).

I think that is a long shot, and all this really means is Brady is year to year and NE doesn’t want to throw a ton of guaranteed money to a 42 year old QB. 

And Mrs. Brady is said to have business interests in NYC that requires her to be closer to Manhattan. That is part of it. 

Edited by Anarchy99

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1 hour ago, Arodin said:

This sounds a lot like all parties agreeing that 2019 is going to be TB’s last season.

Or both parties agree they’ll take it one year at a time. Brady has often reworked his contract, usually to give the club flexibility in cap space. This time around (if I’m understanding it correctly), he got a raise for 2019 and they saved cap space.

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6 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Or both parties agree they’ll take it one year at a time. Brady has often reworked his contract, usually to give the club flexibility in cap space. This time around (if I’m understanding it correctly), he got a raise for 2019 and they saved cap space.

I just don't understand how those two things go together.  Either in theory or practice.  His cap number was going to be $27m this year ($14m base, $12m prorated bonus and $1m roster bonus), with $15m of that being paid in cash this year.  And it was the last year of his deal.  So they tack two years onto the deal, but they auto void?  His actual income this year goes up $8m, from $15m to $23m....but because of the voided years the Pats save $5.5m in salary cap space. 

So what did the Pats really get out of it?  He's still only on a one year deal like before.  Is it really worth spending $8m in cash to save $5.5m in cap space?

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5 minutes ago, matttyl said:

I just don't understand how those two things go together.  Either in theory or practice.  His cap number was going to be $27m this year ($14m base, $12m prorated bonus and $1m roster bonus), with $15m of that being paid in cash this year.  And it was the last year of his deal.  So they tack two years onto the deal, but they auto void?  His actual income this year goes up $8m, from $15m to $23m....but because of the voided years the Pats save $5.5m in salary cap space. 

So what did the Pats really get out of it?  He's still only on a one year deal like before.  Is it really worth spending $8m in cash to save $5.5m in cap space?

It depends what they use the cap space for. If it's just used later on to extend guys after the season, that seems like a waste. Maybe they will save it for a Gronk return. Or a trade for the tackle from the Redskins. Or to bring in an established receiver. Or in a different trade scenario.

As far as contract gymnastics, it may be possible for NE to move some of his salary from this year into the future (dummy) years. Or they may be able to spread out the remaining cap hit from his initial signing bonus over 3 years instead of 1. Like I said earlier, it's essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul, as they will have to eat the salary cap hit eventually.

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2 hours ago, matttyl said:

I just don't understand how those two things go together.  Either in theory or practice.  His cap number was going to be $27m this year ($14m base, $12m prorated bonus and $1m roster bonus), with $15m of that being paid in cash this year.  And it was the last year of his deal.  So they tack two years onto the deal, but they auto void?  His actual income this year goes up $8m, from $15m to $23m....but because of the voided years the Pats save $5.5m in salary cap space. 

So what did the Pats really get out of it?  He's still only on a one year deal like before.  Is it really worth spending $8m in cash to save $5.5m in cap space?

If the Pats are saving $5.5M on the cap, that means his cap number comes down from $27M to $21.5M.

The $13M in previous bonuses ($7M in prorated signing bonus + $5M in prorated restructuring bonus + $1M roster bonus) still hits the 2019 cap, leaving $8.5M to account for.

That could mean something like this: a $21M signing bonus, split evenly across 3 years at $7M per year; plus a $1.5M 2019 salary.

That would mean the Pats would eat $14M in dead 2020 cap money if they don't rework this contract after this season. But this sort of structure shows how they could save $5.5M in 2019 cap while Brady's 2019 cash increases by $8.5M.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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2 minutes ago, Brandon Will said:

Anyone believe in Stidham ?

He will develope behind Brady for 2 more years. He shows similar qualities I'm his game. 

https://youtu.be/ZbFqFns6SLc

No, I'm not saying he "is" Brady so dont even start.

#58 if you’re at todays joint practice with the Lions. BB makes rookies wear weird numbers, they get a real number Week 1.

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20 hours ago, matttyl said:

This new deal of Brady's automatically voids at the end of this season, and he can't be tagged?  So what did it do?

It gave him a golden parachute.

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37 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

That would mean the Pats would eat $14M in dead 2020 cap money if they don't rework this contract after this season. But this sort of structure shows how they could save $5.5M in 2019 cap while Brady gets a raise of $8.5M.

Big enough that they'd likely have to do it?  So 2019 isn't his final season, unless he wants it to be?

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21 minutes ago, Brandon Will said:

Anyone believe in Stidham ?

No. The one thing that set Brady apart in 2000 was his irrational confidence. Most guys think they'll eventually be the team's starter, but Brady knew he was going to be the Patriots' starter -- and he acted like it. I don't see that in Stidham. He carries himself more like Ryan Mallet than Jimmy Garoppolo, IMO. That doesn't mean that he won't eventually develop into a starter, but as for now I'm not getting my hopes up

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2 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Big enough that they'd likely have to do it?  So 2019 isn't his final season, unless he wants it to be?

Not really. His cap number this year will be $21.5M or so. If he retires and they eat $14M, they still gain $7.5M in cap space year over year. They could use a veteran bridge QB at that rate or draft a rookie to be below that rate. Or just go up for one year at the QB position by having a more expensive replacement veteran.

All that said, I would be surprised at this point if Brady is not starting for the Pats in 2020, unless he suffers some kind of major injury in 2019.

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Tom Brady and Gisele Bündchen have listed their Brookline, Mass. home for $39.5 million.

It is the couple's only Massachusetts residence. This will only spark more rumors that 2019 is set to be Brady's final year in Boston, but any close observer of sports knows that something like this — house hunting, looking at schools, etc. — is usually completely unrelated to any type of free agent activity. It's possible one of the richest couples on earth have simply decided they want an even better home.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Aug 6, 2019, 1:58 PM ET

 

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Here are more details on the Brady contract. NE converted gave him a signing bonus and converted most of his 2019 salary into a signing bonus. I believe combined that was $20 million. They then spaced the cap hit over three seasons, which freed up $5.5 million in cap space for this season. 

The contract is essentially a template of the contract Brees has had with the Saints for his last 2 or 3 contacts. 

Boston sports media is going crazy thinking this means this means Brady is done after this year. While that certainly could be an option, whatever has gone on this past week does not mean he is retiring, or he wants to play elsewhere, or anything else. 

It was the best way to get Brady a raise and save the Pats some cap room for this season. That’s all it means. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-an-inside-look-at-tom-brady-and-drew-brees-contracts-and-how-theyre-connected/

Edited by Anarchy99

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On 8/6/2019 at 11:10 AM, matttyl said:

I just don't understand how those two things go together.  Either in theory or practice.  His cap number was going to be $27m this year ($14m base, $12m prorated bonus and $1m roster bonus), with $15m of that being paid in cash this year.  And it was the last year of his deal.  So they tack two years onto the deal, but they auto void?  His actual income this year goes up $8m, from $15m to $23m....but because of the voided years the Pats save $5.5m in salary cap space. 

So what did the Pats really get out of it?  He's still only on a one year deal like before.  Is it really worth spending $8m in cash to save $5.5m in cap space?

the timing of the actual payment of money does not always correspond to which year it counts against your cap.  It depends on how the money is categorized (base salary, roster bonus, signing bonus, non-guaranteed salary, etc.).  Depending on how the money is categorized, it can be paid now and count against the cap for technical purposes in a future year.   It may kick the can down the road a bit, but a lot of teams are smart enough with the cap now that they would know what options they have to re-classify in the future and minimize downside risk.

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Also noteworthy is that the usual contract requirement is that a player contract can only be renegotiated once in a 12-month period. However, the caveat to that (and fine print) is that provision does not apply if the total value of the contact does not go up.

In Brady's case, as long as his contract totals stay the same over the next 3 years, Brady and the Pats can make whatever changes they want to his contract at any time (unlike most contracts) and they can also change the language (and get rid of the dummy years clause).

So as an example, the two sides can negotiate what Brady would make in 2020 and push the contract expiration date up a year whenever they want. Ultimately, NE will eventually have to eat a cap hit when Brady is gone and they deferred the cap hit to years he won't actually play. But they will worry about that when they get to that point. More than likely, whomever replaces Brady will be on a cheap rookie deal still, so eating a $15 million one time cap charge when they have a young QB getting paid low dollars won't impact them that much.

With regard to Brady's house being put up for sale, I believe Brady still owns a luxury townhouse condo around Boston. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have to stay at a Best Western if his mansion sells.

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What would the Pats go with a league average QB?  Some think BB and his system could go 11-5 with anyone.

They cite the Matt Cassell year.  Brady has to be worth 3 regular season wins vs league average and more so in the playoffs i have to think.  

Can Jameis Winston or Marriotta get 10 wins with this Pats team?

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Also noteworthy is that the usual contract requirement is that a player contract can only be renegotiated once in a 12-month period. However, the caveat to that (and fine print) is that provision does not apply if the total value of the contact does not go up.

In Brady's case, as long as his contract totals stay the same over the next 3 years, Brady and the Pats can make whatever changes they want to his contract at any time (unlike most contracts) and they can also change the language (and get rid of the dummy years clause).

So as an example, the two sides can negotiate what Brady would make in 2020 and push the contract expiration date up a year whenever they want. Ultimately, NE will eventually have to eat a cap hit when Brady is gone and they deferred the cap hit to years he won't actually play. But they will worry about that when they get to that point. More than likely, whomever replaces Brady will be on a cheap rookie deal still, so eating a $15 million one time cap charge when they have a young QB getting paid low dollars won't impact them that much.

With regard to Brady's house being put up for sale, I believe Brady still owns a luxury townhouse condo around Boston. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have to stay at a Best Western if his mansion sells.

He sold his condo years ago and don't think he's bought another.

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1 hour ago, elguapo07 said:

What would the Pats go with a league average QB?  Some think BB and his system could go 11-5 with anyone.

They cite the Matt Cassell year.  Brady has to be worth 3 regular season wins vs league average and more so in the playoffs i have to think.  

Can Jameis Winston or Marriotta get 10 wins with this Pats team?

I think it depends on a lot of factors . . .

If BB knew ahead of time that Brady was gone and he could prepare his team properly, I think an average QB could be coached up to make some big plays on occasion provided the guy didn't make dumb decisions and didn't turn the ball over. I don't know . . . is this QB as I described already better than an above average QB?

The other issue would be how much would this average QB cost? If it's $20-30 million a year, BB would pass and find a much cheaper average QB. IMO, if Bill knew going in he was going to get average to slightly above average play, he would take the money he wasn't spending on his QB and reinvest it in other spots to make the team better. The irony here might be that BB would actually spend more on receivers if he had a meh QB . . . something he normally would never do with Brady.

A lot of other factors come into play on what NE's record would be. Strength of schedule, strength of the AFC, health of the roster, etc. But I would not bet against the Patriots winning  at least 10 games and making the playoffs as long as BB is the head coach and making personnel decisions.

The bigger question would be how far would the Pats go in the post season, because that's where having mediocre QB could kill them more than in the regular season against a lot of ungood teams.

Edited by Anarchy99
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Tom Brady completed 8-of-12 passes for 75 yards in New England's Week 3 preseason contest against the Panthers.

Tom Terrific leaned on Phillip Dorsett (5/41) in his only quarter of action, tossing a team-high five balls towards the latter while the two stayed on the field together. He also flashed miscommunication with undrafted standout Jakobi Meyers out the gates, launching an untracked ball over the secondary's (and receiver's) head. Although the 42-year-old will have a tougher time making plays sans Rob Gronkowksi's presence, Josh Gordon's availability suddenly boosts Brady into Top 20 territory at his position to start the season.

Aug 22, 2019, 8:32 PM ET

 

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