@Anarchy99 I have not read all this, but what do you see as the percentage chance that Brady stays with the Patriots. And if he does, isn't just adding WRs and/or a quality TE a tough assignment for those players in their first year in the Patriot's system. I have heard that it is complex and many struggle with understanding enough to just play. Can you give me insight on that and whether you think it is likely that Brady again signs in New England?
Thanks, I value your opinion so I will hang up and listen.
There's a lot to review in all of this. Part of the reason the NE offense is hard to master is TB sees things that the defense is doing and he needs his receivers to see the same thing. Receivers have a series of hot reads they have to make both pre-snap and in-play as far as adjustments go. Sometimes they have to process and break down a play step by step to end up where Brady expects them. And depending upon what Brady sees and expects, the ball will be delivered accordingly. For example, if a receiver runs a route and the CB is behind him with help on the backside, Brady will throw the ball down and away. If the help is in front of the play, Brady will throw the ball high and away. Part of the issue this year was receivers took too long to make their cuts and/or did not expect the ball thrown where Brady was throwing it. Similarly, there were a few times when Brady looked like he just over threw a pass, when on film breakdown the receiver did not run deep enough, cut too soon, or otherwise was not in the right spot. But in real time, it looked like Brady was way off.
Based on all that, rookies in the NE system really stand no chance. They have too much to absorb and TB won't work with them or put in extra time to bring them along. At this stage, he wants guys that can be plug and play. Over the years, some new (first year) guys have fit in perfectly without a hitch (Welker and Moss in the huge win category, guys like Lloyd / Stallworth / LaFell in the pretty good category). Antonio Brown looked like he had promise as a Patriot. Others have crashed and burned (Galloway / Ocho Cinco). Others had mixed results (Gordon). Sanu didn't really mesh with things as a mid season acquisition (and had an ankle injury that didn't help).
In recent years, Brady essentially made football a lower priority than in the past. He only attended mandatory / team required practices. He made it clear that family time was of great importance, so he skipped voluntary workouts and OTA's and went on around the world trips. He essentially only showed up for the bare minimum, even with high turnover for skilled position players on offense. This year, he had load management days during practice (most first practices of the week off) and also had multiple practices where he was too banged up to really practice. Combining all of that (and a lack of interest in working with new guys and rookies), and the quality of play for the offense dropped and was evident on the field.
That's what I find odd about Brady potentially wanting to play somewhere else. He wants everything his way and at least in recent years wanted to show up as little as possible. He's worked with the same HC and OC for years now, so that made the system easy for him. Now put Brady on another team with a new coaching staff, a new system, and all new players. That is the exact situation Brady has AVOIDED and has verbalized not enjoying.
Other issues include his relationship with BB. Lots has been speculated, but to summarize, it sounds like Brady has always felt unappreciated and he has asked for a bigger voice in how things work. Another consideration is Brady's wife, who has indicated she needs to be in or around NYC for her business interests in the fashion industry. If Brady picked up and moved somewhere else, how does that fit with the family and fashion industry plan? They just bought a house in Connecticut that is an easy commute to NYC . . . would they look to buy another mansion somewhere else (not like they can't afford it).
I have posted several times that IMO, NE is better off letting Brady walk and taking the money they would have had to pay him to upgrade the offense. Get a WR1 (AJ Green?) and a real TE (Hunter Henry?) . . . maybe a couple of ok OL men for depth . . . keep the defense intact . . . and they could be just as good. Stidham got positive reviews, and his cheap contract could afford them the chance to upgrade at their weak spots. Paying Brady would not give them any cap room to do that. If they move on from Brady, they might bring in a veteran as someone to potentially start or be a mentor to Stidham. Someone like Alex Smith comes to mind (if he can still play). I believe Washington can get out from under his contract and release him by 3/17 and not take a bath in doing so.
The way it sounds is that BB will say Brady is now worth X dollars. Brady will say he wants Z amount of dollars. Kraft will try to offer Brady Y dollars to stay. I can't imagine Brady cares that much about the money as he doesn't need it. I think Brady will not be re-signed by NE at the start of free agency and he will see who really wants him. At this stage, I highly doubt Brady wants to get into a team rebuild, so he may find there are fewer suitors than he would hope for (and they may not want to give him the contract he wants).
Initially, I felt there really wasn't much chance Brady left. But that was mid season when the team looked great. Then the second half of the season rolled around and things went south quickly. Since then, I thought one option would be McDaniels would become a head coach somewhere and then Brady would go with him. I have heard lots of talk of Brady to the Chargers . . . perhaps with others in tow (McDaniels? Gronk? Antonio? Other NE free agents?). Gronk would have to be traded to the Chargers for that one to work out.
So to answer your question, it's too soon to tell what Brady will do and the percentages of his return to NE could vary from week to week. The Vegas odds of him returning to the Patriots the other day were posted at 1 to 2. Oddly enough, I don't think that Brady at this stage is a difference maker to put any team over the top . . . and that includes NE. The only way I think he could make a team better is playing for a team that has a number of playmakers on offense that was getting below average QB play.
We can debate what teams fit that description. Maybe Dallas? Chicago? I have heard a lot of hot takes involving other teams . . . MIA, IND, TEN, the Raiders. I don't think anyone has more than a guess at this point. I am not sure even Brady knows what he is going to do. He tweeted today that he's not done, so one has to conclude that he won't be retiring.
I think NE will offer him a contract and Brady will have to decide if he wants to play for less (again) and if he wants to deal with the same culture and weapons to work with. (He will likely have to re-sign before the team could make many changes to the roster . . . so the best he might get is a promise of new people to throw to.) When I get a better sense of how things are shaping up, I might be better suited to give you an actual percentage of how likely Brady will still be on the Patriots.