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The Trent Richardson Thread

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I'm not blaming everything on the Colts, or saying that Trent couldn't play better. I'm just saying let's pump the brakes here. His perceived value was too high 6 months ago; I think it may be too low now...or at least worth the risk associated with him.

I agree that the people talking about cutting him are reactive and short-sighted, but I'm not sure where you're seeing his dynasty value plummeting to any great extent. He's RB9 in the FBG consensus dynasty rankings; the lowest any individual staffer has him is RB16.

That's embarassing.

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I've just been skimming some of this recent stuff --- has the richardson 'debate' undergone some kind of renaissance or am I not understanding?

We've gone from "Richardon's numbers are worse than Brown's because he only gets carries when the D knows the Colts are running" to "Richardon's numbers are worse than Brown's because Brown gets to run in run-heavy, 3 TE formations, and thus has more blocking than Richardson does."

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Chad Parsons has Trent Richardson ahead of Jamal Charles. Updated 12/4.

Parsons usually has the most ridiculous rankings.

:goodposting:

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I'm not blaming everything on the Colts, or saying that Trent couldn't play better. I'm just saying let's pump the brakes here. His perceived value was too high 6 months ago; I think it may be too low now...or at least worth the risk associated with him.

I agree that the people talking about cutting him are reactive and short-sighted, but I'm not sure where you're seeing his dynasty value plummeting to any great extent. He's RB9 in the FBG consensus dynasty rankings; the lowest any individual staffer has him is RB16. Looking through the dynasty trade thread, he's consistently brought return far above what his production alone would dictate. In most decent leagues, you're not getting the guy without coughing up something solid in return. Put a tangible value on it -- where do you take him in a startup? Where should he be ranked among RBs and overall? Paying RB1 prices for a guy who just got benched for Donald Brown isn't close to a "buy low" in my book.

I honestly can't see that. I own Richardson in two leagues, so I would hope he has that value, but I can't imagine taking him as my #1 RB in a startup and would probably also pass on him as my #2. I don't have current rankings done, but off the top of my head I would probably have him slotted at RB25.

9 is too high, but from the Backs currently in the NFL (so not counting next year's rookie crop), where should he be grouped?

Charles, Forte, McCoy, Lacy, Bernard, Bell, Lynch, Martin

Foster, AD, Morris, Stacy, Spiller, Bush, Murray?, Moreno, Ball...

Then it gets fuzzy. I think I'd take him soon after these guys.

I can't imagine Richardson being higher than RB30. I would put him in the JStew, Chris Ivory, Joique Bell tier. I own Ben Tate and and would NOT trade him for Richardson. I would not trade a first round rookie pick for him. Best I would offer is a mid-round second round pick.

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I'm not blaming everything on the Colts, or saying that Trent couldn't play better. I'm just saying let's pump the brakes here. His perceived value was too high 6 months ago; I think it may be too low now...or at least worth the risk associated with him.

I agree that the people talking about cutting him are reactive and short-sighted, but I'm not sure where you're seeing his dynasty value plummeting to any great extent. He's RB9 in the FBG consensus dynasty rankings; the lowest any individual staffer has him is RB16. Looking through the dynasty trade thread, he's consistently brought return far above what his production alone would dictate. In most decent leagues, you're not getting the guy without coughing up something solid in return. Put a tangible value on it -- where do you take him in a startup? Where should he be ranked among RBs and overall? Paying RB1 prices for a guy who just got benched for Donald Brown isn't close to a "buy low" in my book.

I honestly can't see that. I own Richardson in two leagues, so I would hope he has that value, but I can't imagine taking him as my #1 RB in a startup and would probably also pass on him as my #2. I don't have current rankings done, but off the top of my head I would probably have him slotted at RB25.

9 is too high, but from the Backs currently in the NFL (so not counting next year's rookie crop), where should he be grouped?

Charles, Forte, McCoy, Lacy, Bernard, Bell, Lynch, Martin

Foster, AD, Morris, Stacy, Spiller, Bush, Murray?, Moreno, Ball...

Then it gets fuzzy. I think I'd take him soon after these guys.

I can't imagine Richardson being higher than RB30. I would put him in the JStew, Chris Ivory, Joique Bell tier. I own Ben Tate and and would NOT trade him for Richardson. I would not trade a first round rookie pick for him. Best I would offer is a mid-round second round pick.

I'll bite.

In dynasty, who are the 29 RBs that you would rather have over TRich?

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Chad Parsons has Trent Richardson ahead of Jamal Charles. Updated 12/4.

Parsons usually has the most ridiculous rankings.

Yeah...a few that are definitely against the grain in there:

Gio @ 1 seems a bit high

Bell @ 3 does as well

Miller @ 10? Ok, now he's TRYING to reach.

Christine Michael @ 8?!?!?! That's some Jim Jones stuff right there...

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wouldnt totally shock me if they cut him. owed over 2 million next season and not even worth that. plus the addition by subtraction aspect. his carries are wasted touches.

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wouldnt totally shock me if they cut him. owed over 2 million next season and not even worth that. plus the addition by subtraction aspect. his carries are wasted touches.

Zero chance.

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wouldnt totally shock me if they cut him. owed over 2 million next season and not even worth that. plus the addition by subtraction aspect. his carries are wasted touches.

Zero chance.

Prolly so since it would be shouting how badly they botched that deal.

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I'm not blaming everything on the Colts, or saying that Trent couldn't play better. I'm just saying let's pump the brakes here. His perceived value was too high 6 months ago; I think it may be too low now...or at least worth the risk associated with him.

I agree that the people talking about cutting him are reactive and short-sighted, but I'm not sure where you're seeing his dynasty value plummeting to any great extent. He's RB9 in the FBG consensus dynasty rankings; the lowest any individual staffer has him is RB16. Looking through the dynasty trade thread, he's consistently brought return far above what his production alone would dictate. In most decent leagues, you're not getting the guy without coughing up something solid in return. Put a tangible value on it -- where do you take him in a startup? Where should he be ranked among RBs and overall? Paying RB1 prices for a guy who just got benched for Donald Brown isn't close to a "buy low" in my book.

I honestly can't see that. I own Richardson in two leagues, so I would hope he has that value, but I can't imagine taking him as my #1 RB in a startup and would probably also pass on him as my #2. I don't have current rankings done, but off the top of my head I would probably have him slotted at RB25.

9 is too high, but from the Backs currently in the NFL (so not counting next year's rookie crop), where should he be grouped?

Charles, Forte, McCoy, Lacy, Bernard, Bell, Lynch, Martin

Foster, AD, Morris, Stacy, Spiller, Bush, Murray?, Moreno, Ball...

Then it gets fuzzy. I think I'd take him soon after these guys.

I can't imagine Richardson being higher than RB30. I would put him in the JStew, Chris Ivory, Joique Bell tier. I own Ben Tate and and would NOT trade him for Richardson. I would not trade a first round rookie pick for him. Best I would offer is a mid-round second round pick.

I'll bite.

In dynasty, who are the 29 RBs that you would rather have over TRich?

How about just saying I would at a minimum take the 32 starting RBs in the nfl over him. I'm sure there's about 15 backups at least that I would throw onto the list.

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wouldnt totally shock me if they cut him. owed over 2 million next season and not even worth that. plus the addition by subtraction aspect. his carries are wasted touches.

Zero chance.

Prolly so since it would be shouting how badly they botched that deal.

That might be an easier pill to swallow than his actual play.

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wouldnt totally shock me if they cut him. owed over 2 million next season and not even worth that. plus the addition by subtraction aspect. his carries are wasted touches.

Zero chance.

Prolly so since it would be shouting how badly they botched that deal.

Richardson's play already does that. Sometimes it's better to cut bait and take the hits. Better to get ripped in the media than to turn it over in a playoff game.

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wouldnt totally shock me if they cut him. owed over 2 million next season and not even worth that. plus the addition by subtraction aspect. his carries are wasted touches.

Zero chance.

Prolly so since it would be shouting how badly they botched that deal.

Richardson's play already does that. Sometimes it's better to cut bait and take the hits. Better to get ripped in the media than to turn it over in a playoff game.

The problem for the Colts is it seems like Irsay is basically the one that made the deal and he has a HUGE ego. Going to be hard for him to admit such a gigantic mistake.

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wouldnt totally shock me if they cut him. owed over 2 million next season and not even worth that. plus the addition by subtraction aspect. his carries are wasted touches.

Zero chance.

Prolly so since it would be shouting how badly they botched that deal.

Richardson's play already does that. Sometimes it's better to cut bait and take the hits. Better to get ripped in the media than to turn it over in a playoff game.

The problem for the Colts is it seems like Irsay is basically the one that made the deal and he has a HUGE ego. Going to be hard for him to admit such a gigantic mistake.

He put himself in the mess not just with the trade but with all the Twitter activity he engaged in about it. It's a tough spot to be in but is his goal a winning team or good press?

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Chad Parsons has Trent Richardson ahead of Jamal Charles. Updated 12/4.

Parsons usually has the most ridiculous rankings.

Yeah...a few that are definitely against the grain in there:

Gio @ 1 seems a bit high

Bell @ 3 does as well

Miller @ 10? Ok, now he's TRYING to reach.

Christine Michael @ 8?!?!?! That's some Jim Jones stuff right there...

I haven't looked at the FBG dynasty rankings since the offseason, but back then I thought he was one of the only guys on the staff willing to take chances and stick his neck out for unproven players. Most of the rankings are basically "current production sorted by age." Those are pretty useless because by the time a player has achieved enough to be ranked high by that type of mindset, the window for buying him has probably already closed. Consider where most FBG staffers would've had Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffery in the offseason vs. where they'd have those players now. Ranking players conservatively and then bumping them up only after any and all semblance of risk is gone doesn't really do your readers any good. I have a lot more respect for the people who were talking up guys like Jeffery and Gordon in the offseason than the guys who wait for things to happen and then adjust their rankings after the fact.

I appreciate it when people actually attempt to look forward and make predictions for what hasn't happened yet. Maybe his rankings are guilty of overrating every flashy young prospect with a pulse, but at least he's trying to provide actionable information instead of just taking the obvious route.

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I am calling it now... Trent Richardson will be the comeback player of 2014. Donald Brown will leave in the off season and TRich will have a full preseason to learn the playbook. Seriously he has talent. It must be hard to get traded mid season.

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I am calling it now... Trent Richardson will be the comeback player of 2014. Donald Brown will leave in the off season and TRich will have a full preseason to learn the playbook. Seriously he has talent. It must be hard to get traded mid season.

Even if he gets lucky and somehow becomes an average RB, he'll have to fight off Randall Cobb and Doug Martin, who actually are talented and good at football.

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I'm thinking the Colts are happy with where they are. Richardson is the answer as defenses key in on stopping him and not focusing on Luck.

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I'm thinking the Colts are happy with where they are. Richardson is the answer as defenses key in on stopping him and not focusing on Luck.

Wat?

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I am calling it now... Trent Richardson will be the comeback player of 2014. Donald Brown will leave in the off season and TRich will have a full preseason to learn the playbook. Seriously he has talent. It must be hard to get traded mid season.

Yet if Smith doesn't get the intentional grounding penalty, you don't make this post.

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I am calling it now... Trent Richardson will be the comeback player of 2014. Donald Brown will leave in the off season and TRich will have a full preseason to learn the playbook. Seriously he has talent. It must be hard to get traded mid season.

Yet if Smith doesn't get the intentional grounding penalty, you don't make this post.

Wait. What?

I've been thinking this the entire year. Richardson's rookie year was actually pretty good. He gets traded mid season to a team and has new playbook etc. I have no idea why he looked so out of it but maybe - like MJD recently acknowledged - Trich needs a full preseason with a team to feel comfortable. I have no idea what is going on but I do believe he's a talented RB on a good offense. Heck even Mark Ingram is starting to be talked about having fantasy relevance. Richardson has burned so many people I think he - or CJ Spiller - will be great value next season. I could be wrong but with his ADP going down the drain, I bet that won't be the end of the world. Unlike this year when it was a disaster because he likely was a first or high second round pick.

Edited by Gandalf

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I am glad l don't have to be drawn to this thread anymore. I felt reading it was my penance for taking with with the 10th pick in two different leagues.

I have two things to add:

500 yards of offense and he has zero of them.

He is much closer to being out of the league than he is to having NFL relevance.

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I am glad l don't have to be drawn to this thread anymore. I felt reading it was my penance for taking with with the 10th pick in two different leagues.

I have two things to add:

500 yards of offense and he has zero of them.

He is much closer to being out of the league than he is to having NFL relevance.

I am glad l don't have to be drawn to this thread anymore. I felt reading it was my penance for taking with with the 10th pick in two different leagues.

I have two things to add:

500 yards of offense and he has zero of them.

He is much closer to being out of the league than he is to having NFL relevance.

This is exactly why he is a great buy low candidate. What do you lose if you are wrong? I'm also thinking dynasty here not redraft. But I do think next year will be very different if he stays healthy.

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I have barely read this thread but didn't most of us think Richardson was a bona fide star in the making after last year? I thought the guy by now would be such a force in that offense. So what went wrong? Is he just not as talented as we thought, is it the playbook issue, the system?

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What do people think Trents value is in term of rookie picks? It is only three months since Indy paid a 1st for him. I refuse to believe that he is as bad as it seems and that they don't have a plan with him. I could see myself going after him this off-season. What do you think he's worth?

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What do people think Trents value is in term of rookie picks? It is only three months since Indy paid a 1st for him. I refuse to believe that he is as bad as it seems and that they don't have a plan with him. I could see myself going after him this off-season. What do you think he's worth?

Mid to late 2nd rd rookie pick at the moment and going down.

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I'm thinking the Colts are happy with where they are. Richardson is the answer as defenses key in on stopping him and not focusing on Luck.

Wat?

:goodposting:

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I don't see how they let Donald brown go as he really seems like a valuable piece of their offense. So maybe Richardson improves a bit as he becomes more comfortable with the offense but his upside seems limited to me.

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I have barely read this thread but didn't most of us think Richardson was a bona fide star in the making after last year? I thought the guy by now would be such a force in that offense. So what went wrong? Is he just not as talented as we thought, is it the playbook issue, the system?

People started with questions as far back as January 2011:

Solid, but not spectacular IMHO. Not enough explosiveness to be a perennial ProBowler. Ronnie Brown type numbers at best ... Trent Richardson reminds me of Ronnie Brown, not sure if he's even as fast as Ronnie.
We are talking about Trent Richardson who ran 10 carries for 24 yards against Auburn? He ran for a 52 yard TD against Arkansas - and then had 8 carries for 13 yards the rest of the game. I'm not sold yet - his frame looks like it's a weight gainer and it could slow him down - he hasn't been consistent hitting holes sometimes and that makes him boom or bust on many carries. Hopefully no one is telling him to leave early.

Marion Barber's mind in Jonathan Stewart's body

I actually like this description of him. There's little doubt that Richardson has elite physical qualities: speed, size, strength, lateral agility. But when I watch him, there just seems to be something missing, and I think it has to do with his mental intangibles. First off, he's not very good at recognizing and deciding which hole to run through in the line, and I think the reason for this is because of his physical qualities. If he doesn't immediately see a hole to run through, he just tries to create his own with his strength/size/speed by running through or over defenders. That may work in high school and the NCAA, and it may even work at times in the NFL but it's not a good way to achieve consistent success imo. He's just too willing to take on defenders head on, if he does that in the NFL he's just asking to be injured. He has the quickness, lateral agility required to juke tacklers and get away from defenders, but I'm afraid his current running style is going to be so ingrained in him it's going be hard for him to change.

Richardson may have some "stats" to back up the athleticism but I just have it seen it play out on the football field yet. Not sure I would whip up a lot of platitudes with a performance against SJST - the Penn State performance was good. But in a big game when they had the lead he wasn't helping extend drives against Auburn. He has trouble hitting the hole and he also needs to work on catching the ball out of the backfield. I knew he wasn't draft eligible - I am just hoping no one is telling him to even consider leaving after next year - he has a lot of football to learn in my opinion. He may become that awesome back - but Ron Dayne went wild in college and when he got to the NFL he couldn't get through a hole. Richardson so far is reminiscent of Ron Dayne in my eyes - not Tony Dorsett.

Brown ran in the 4.3's at the combine...Richardson won't be doing that.

After the 2011 Kent State game:

This was Kent State for crying out loud and he should have run for 150 to go with those 3 tds.

Don't blast me, LOL, but Richardson is somewhat overrated, IMO. While I don't put much stock in timed speed, he's not as fast as advertised. He also doesn't have the vision and natural running ability of Ingram.

I don't think he has shown the vision Ingram has thus far

Richardson lacks football instincts and a "feel" for the game.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=579927&hl=trent

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=608549&hl=trent

There are several threads on him and it's interesting to look back in time when observations were somewhat more objective.

One thing that comes through again and again are the observations about lack of vision, which I think means instinctively hitting the holes where the defenders ain't.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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I'm thinking the Colts are happy with where they are. Richardson is the answer as defenses key in on stopping him and not focusing on Luck.

Wat?

:goodposting:

I am fairly sure that MK is just focused on speaking sarcastically these days. Cause that is clearly what that statement was.

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Edited.

Edited by rude classless thugs
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I am calling it now... Trent Richardson will be the comeback player of 2014. Donald Brown will leave in the off season and TRich will have a full preseason to learn the playbook. Seriously he has talent. It must be hard to get traded mid season.

Yet if Smith doesn't get the intentional grounding penalty, you don't make this post.

Wait. What?

I've been thinking this the entire year. Richardson's rookie year was actually pretty good. He gets traded mid season to a team and has new playbook etc. I have no idea why he looked so out of it but maybe - like MJD recently acknowledged - Trich needs a full preseason with a team to feel comfortable. I have no idea what is going on but I do believe he's a talented RB on a good offense. Heck even Mark Ingram is starting to be talked about having fantasy relevance. Richardson has burned so many people I think he - or CJ Spiller - will be great value next season. I could be wrong but with his ADP going down the drain, I bet that won't be the end of the world. Unlike this year when it was a disaster because he likely was a first or high second round pick.

I don't know if a koolaid overdose is possible but you should.

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Disclosure - I'm a TRich dynasty owner and Colts season ticket holder.

Donald Brown has been fantastic for the Colts this year. His vision, speed, and tackle-breaking ability have been unbelievable compared to his first three years (which were aweful). If his game can turn around like that, I don't see why Richardson can't become the player we expect him to be. I see a tremendous amount of hesitation and indecision in Richardson that people have translated to "slow." He has been a big disappointment this year, but he actually has looked better in his decisiveness the last few games. Last night he hardly played after the fumble, but I expect big improvements next season. The run blocking can't get worse than it has been this year. The big obstacle for Richardson having a good fantasy year next year is Brown. I don't see how the Colts let Brown go. I think the Colts will keep both, and they will hamper each other's fantasy upside. But I do think the talent is there for both players. And the offense they play in is only going to get better. I would still be buying Richardson if you can get him for the prices mentioned recently in this thread.

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Disclosure - I'm a TRich dynasty owner and Colts season ticket holder.

Donald Brown has been fantastic for the Colts this year. His vision, speed, and tackle-breaking ability have been unbelievable compared to his first three years (which were aweful). If his game can turn around like that, I don't see why Richardson can't become the player we expect him to be. I see a tremendous amount of hesitation and indecision in Richardson that people have translated to "slow." He has been a big disappointment this year, but he actually has looked better in his decisiveness the last few games. Last night he hardly played after the fumble, but I expect big improvements next season. The run blocking can't get worse than it has been this year. The big obstacle for Richardson having a good fantasy year next year is Brown. I don't see how the Colts let Brown go. I think the Colts will keep both, and they will hamper each other's fantasy upside. But I do think the talent is there for both players. And the offense they play in is only going to get better. I would still be buying Richardson if you can get him for the prices mentioned recently in this thread.

It'll be an interesting year. People might not agree, but Richardson could be battling Ballard for the backup job.

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Clutch playoff fumble there. You can't get production like that for anything less than a 1st-round pick.

That fumble was unbelievable.

Just terrible, not a big hit or anything, he more or less lost it while switching hands. He just seemed to be stumbling around on the field. Playoff game, trying to work his way back into favor, and not only does he fumble but he just looks awful in doing it.

I don't think they took him out just because of ball security concerns. There's a trust issue, maybe his head is not in the game (and not just that game vs KC, but the game).

Something is up with this guy. He has talent issues (vision) and size questions (weight, shiftiness), but he has bigger problems upstairs maybe.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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Clutch playoff fumble there. You can't get production like that for anything less than a 1st-round pick.

That fumble was unbelievable.

Just terrible, not a big hit or anything, he more or less lost it while switching hands. He just seemed to be stumbling around on the field. Playoff game, trying to work his way back into favor, and not only does he fumble but he just looks awful in doing it.

I don't think they took him out just because of ball security concerns. There's a trust issue, maybe his head is not in the game (and not just that game vs KC, but the game).

Something is up with this guy. He has talent issues (vision) and size questions (weight, shiftiness), but he has bigger problems upstairs maybe.

It's a vague comment but I completely agree. Bad plays/decisions look even worse in slow mo but from a vision perspective, did he really think he was going to cut that run back for significant additional yardage? Sometimes you just have to put your head down, take what's there and get back to the huddle...

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I'm thinking the Colts are happy with where they are. Richardson is the answer as defenses key in on stopping him and not focusing on Luck.

Wat?
Colts trade their 1st round pick and are still in the playoffs with a better than average shot at moving forward. Many teams would trade their first to be where the Colts are right now. Richardson helped them get here and he will help them to a Super Bowl win this year. That is worth a first round pick.

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I'm thinking the Colts are happy with where they are. Richardson is the answer as defenses key in on stopping him and not focusing on Luck.

Wat?
Colts trade their 1st round pick and are still in the playoffs with a better than average shot at moving forward. Many teams would trade their first to be where the Colts are right now. Richardson helped them get here and he will help them to a Super Bowl win this year. That is worth a first round pick.

No doubt. The colts don't really play well until they are down by 20. If they gave Richardson the ball early, they could get down quicker. Than they have more time to catch up. It's a team game, everybody has to play their role.

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I'm thinking the Colts are happy with where they are. Richardson is the answer as defenses key in on stopping him and not focusing on Luck.

Wat?
Colts trade their 1st round pick and are still in the playoffs with a better than average shot at moving forward. Many teams would trade their first to be where the Colts are right now. Richardson helped them get here and he will help them to a Super Bowl win this year. That is worth a first round pick.

lol

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I'm thinking the Colts are happy with where they are. Richardson is the answer as defenses key in on stopping him and not focusing on Luck.

Wat?
Colts trade their 1st round pick and are still in the playoffs with a better than average shot at moving forward. Many teams would trade their first to be where the Colts are right now. Richardson helped them get here and he will help them to a Super Bowl win this year. That is worth a first round pick.

lol

While I do not like going around laughing at people it seems Mario Kart is well deserving here of being laughed at for his delusional opinion. Trent in no way helped the Colts this year and is not worth a 1st round pick, what has proven that? This past season. Trent has not been able to overcome Donald Brown when even Bradshaw and Ballard already easily beat Brown out.

Edited by False Start

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