jurb26
Footballguy
Strange, I was reading this and thinking it should be in reference to bostonfred....
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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
Have you not been reading this hot mess? Fred is smoking crack. And my response about what is required was in direct response to the bolded. Which was a strange thing for him to say since he was the one who brought up Freeman in this thread.
FWIW, finding opposing points of view is the reason I come here. I just try to discourage blather when I can.
bostonfred
Footballguy
That was a good post. I dont want to quote the whole thing but i will touch on a couple points. First is this one. I am not specifically advocating for freeman here. I am advocating against spending an early pick on hill. And yes, i know that some adp info shows him going late, but there are plenty of people talking about him as a first round pick. As a late second, hes a fine pick. But in a draft this deep, its a crime to take a low upside player early. If you dont like freeman, take a receiver. If you dont like a receiver, see what you can get for the pick.
That may seem to be my unreasonably harsh critique of his situation, but i don't think anyone here has actually refuted it. They've disagreed, but mostly with generalities about how there's plenty of room to do well in this offense, and how its possible for people to do well in rbbcs. And that's fine. But nobody seems to have examples of rbbc backs who were legit studs for more than a year while sharing with another very good back. And while plenty of people think hill is uber talented, nobody seems to be saying that he's going to push gio into a minor role.
So when push comes to shove, the best and most optimistic projections for hill are still just above average numbers for a committee back. Which is good, but hardly dominant. And again, for a second round pick, I will take good but not dominant. But for a first round pick, I don't want someone whose upside is good but not dominant. And we all seem to agree on that part going in.
again, I think people are misunderstanding my point here. I've never questioned hill's talent, and never said he cant or wont be a top 30 back with top 20 upside. In fact I've strongly agreed with people who said that about him. I just think that a top 30 back with top 20 upside is a bad pick in the first round.
Now, a few people have tried to argue that his stats could be even better than top 20. Like your post, where you showed that hes capable of handling a full workload, and of catching the ball, and certainly scoring. And believe it or not, I agree. I think he could flirt with borderline rb1 numbers, and I think an optimistic projection is that he will do so once in the next four years. I gave him a very optimistic 5 ypc, a higher than most 240 carries, a very reasonable 20 receptions as a higher than average 10 ypr. And thats still low end rb1 territory, or rb2 in a ppr. that's his best case scenario without a gio injury. And nobody seems to be projecting much more than that.
A few other people have mentioned how well he would do if gio got hurt. and that's probably true. But there are plenty of backup rbs who would excel if someone got hurt, and none of them are worth a first round rookie pick. you could trade your first round pick right now for a serviceable rb2 type and a backup rb who would do well if their starter got hurt, and you'd still get more in return. I suppose there's some utility to only using one roster spot for both things, but its not really exciting to me.
I don't think that's a specific or unfair take on the situation, but you're welcome to refute any part of it you like. Do you think hill will push gio to the side? Do you think he will get more than 240 carries? More than 10 tds? More than 20 receptions? More than 5 yards per carry? More than 10 yards per reception? Do you think he will exceed those numbers every single year while gio is there? Where specifically do you think im being unfair?
Or, if you don't think that's unfair, then tell me why you would spend a first round pick on a guy like that?
The answers I've gotten so far have said im on crack, im using a crystal ball, I made the worst post in the thread, and a whole lot of arguments about freeman, when I didn't bring him up. That's a separate conversation for a separate thread, and I only responded about him because I think he's a totally different type of play. He has a direct path to a starting job that doesn't require jackson to get hurt. Maybe freemans just awesome and wins the job outright. Maybe sjax retires. Maybe freeman starts spelling him more often and slowly takes more carries then takes the job next year. Maybe they draft a guy next year and freeman wins the job. Forget for a minute what you think about freemans talent, the point is just that he has a path to the job. Its an entirely separate conversation as to whether he is talented enough that he can actually win or hold or even be allowed to compete for the job. The only thing I know about that is that he's got slow measurables, especially for a smaller back, but has a good all around skillset, and the coach and gm have talked about him as a lead back and three down back. that might be coach speak, but the point is that they're thinking of him in that light, which means he has an entirely different upside case than hill.
Freeman could easily flame out, but he might be the perennial rb1 on a very good offense. Hill probably wont flame out, but he has a low ceiling/high floor. He would be an instant stud for the rest of the year if gio got hurt, but otherwise, low end rb1/high end rb2 numbers are his best case, and he's probably going to be more of a rb2/rb3 type in the 20-30 range. for a first round pick, I think you take the higher upside guy, or trade the pick, but you don't settle for the lower upside guy even if you love his talent. The negativity in this thread from people who disagree is not unusual, but disappointing.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
IMO you're weighing situation way too heavily; that's a great approach in redraft but not so much in dynasty. Drafting for a high floor is also a very valid approach. People overdraft players like Freeman every year based on perceived short term opportunity -- Jacquizz Rodgers as the heir apparent to Michael Turner on the same team is a perfect example. Next guy up behind an aging star really doesn't mean much of anything when that guy is mediocre. I'll take Hill's greater talent with lower short term situational upside over Freeman's likely to never do anything ten times out of ten in dynasty.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Thanks, Brewtown.
What did James Brown say when he tripped on stage?
I've fallen and I can't get down.
Interesting point about big/small backs.
In 2013, Gio went first, but the rest of the second round RBs were all bigger (Bell, Ball, Lacy and Michael).
In 2014, Sankey went first, than plus size Hill and Hyde.
I think you identified the top 4 RBs pre-draft elsewhere, they stand out for me. In a later tier, but I'm also interested in Terrance West and Andre Williams.
bostonfred
Footballguy
might be. It is unusual for me to speak out against a player because of their situation, because one of the most valid paths to success is that a player is simply better than their competition and takes their job. People immediately downgraded reuben randle when the giants drafted obj, because that was the clearest path to obj getting the job and they expected him to take over quickly. People immediately downgraded kenny stills because they saw cooks taking over the role that seems to be opening for him. People didn't immediately downgrade maclin because there's still room for both guys to succeed, but the riley cooper talk has died down a little. In the case of hill, the talk about gio hasn't died down. That's what makes this an unusual situation. A talented player joining a talented player in the backfield has happened before, but we've rarely if ever seen it work out where they were both good at the same time, and gio is not only young, but successful, and his contract started just a year earlier than hill's. the situation is unlikely to improve.
I don't perceive myself as a great judge of talent and I know a lot of you guys do. I obviously look at situation, but in dynasty I totally agree that you have to downplay that. This is just an unusual situation.
As for freeman, I also listen to the coaches and gms who draft players and look at what they say and how they say it. Obviously, nobody is going to say they hate the guy they drafted, so what im looking for is stuff like them talking about the role they see him in. There's no reason to talk about him as a three down back or lead back if they perceive him as a change of pace guy. Then again, they talked up jacquizz rodgers as a three down back, and he hasn't panned out. So talking him up after the draft, or after a few practices, is no guarantee whatsoever of future success. Its more a sign of what the upside is, than whether he's like to achieve it.
Same thing goes when they talk about what he needs to work on. They said blocking, which was considered one of his strengths before the draft. They seemed to believe in his running and receiving ability. That doesn't mean he's going to be good at running and catching, but if they think he's good at that, and they're focused on getting him better at pass blocking, then theyre thinking about the steps to get him on the field. Once he gets there, you might be right, he might suck. But I like that they're working on getting him there.
And then its just a question of what he's able to do with the opportunity. Maybe he never sees the field in an nfl game. Maybe he gets a change of pace role, falls flat on his face, and never starts a game. Or maybe he takes the job and never looks back. I don't know what will happen and im not good enough at talent evaluation to say with any certainty what will happen.
If you're right in your talent evaluation, then that's not likely. I can only say that I think he's in the position hes in because I think the team sees him as good enough to put him in this position. The risk is a lot greater, but the upside of working in that offense for people who think he has a three down skillset is really outstanding if he can do it.
The message with hill is exactly the opposite. He's good enough to carry the load (but he wont be asked to). We like our one two punch. We wanted someone to fill this role. Theres more certainty with hill, but less upside.
It sounds like you perceive freeman as a bad gamble because you don't like his chances of winning the job, and you like hill because you think hell be a better than usual committee back. I perceive freeman as a good gamble because I like the high upside, and don't like hill because I think the replacement cost of a better than usual committee back is lower than a first round pick. I am more interested in acquiring possible rb1s than certain rb2s, but maybe there are formats where a safe guy is more valuable.
Bostonfred - below are reasons that I do NOT think like you:
* things change - ACLs get ruptured, degenerative conditions come about, new regimes come in...
* RBBC IS EVERYWHERE - every or nearly every team will be employing RBBC after next years draft. In the world of RBBC every RBs upside is limited (theoretically). In my opinion, one way to combat this is by owning LOTS of RBs. This would boost the idea of taking another talented RB over a WR with the idea of building a stable of talented RBs in the new world of RBBC. By owning many RBs you can now play the injury card - if the other RB in a RBBC situation is injured maybe one of the many that you have will be getting all the carries.
* I would rather take the most talented player than take the tallest midget in the best situation. I would rather rely on "my eye" and my scouting skills. I would kick myself forever if I just relied on situation and missed out on a stud that "I knew" was talented. I'd rather "go down" utilizing my instincts rather than miss on situation...
Limited upside is going to be everywhere in the RBBC NFL...
You should adapt your drafting style accordingly...
* things change - ACLs get ruptured, degenerative conditions come about, new regimes come in...
* RBBC IS EVERYWHERE - every or nearly every team will be employing RBBC after next years draft. In the world of RBBC every RBs upside is limited (theoretically). In my opinion, one way to combat this is by owning LOTS of RBs. This would boost the idea of taking another talented RB over a WR with the idea of building a stable of talented RBs in the new world of RBBC. By owning many RBs you can now play the injury card - if the other RB in a RBBC situation is injured maybe one of the many that you have will be getting all the carries.
* I would rather take the most talented player than take the tallest midget in the best situation. I would rather rely on "my eye" and my scouting skills. I would kick myself forever if I just relied on situation and missed out on a stud that "I knew" was talented. I'd rather "go down" utilizing my instincts rather than miss on situation...
Limited upside is going to be everywhere in the RBBC NFL...
You should adapt your drafting style accordingly...
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Isn't the speed guy usually the compliment to the power guy?
12punch
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm liking Hill more and more as the days go by. I think he will be in line for 220 carries as a low end. In Cinci's offense that could be some serious fantasy points. He could score along the lines of 10 TDs with that workload. Sankey is a safer bet but I thinks it well with in reach for Hill to out score him.
12punch
Footballguy
that may be true but he's also got the worst situation.
he'll get blown up every week behind that o-line, and they'll always be playing from behind with no talent around him.
prior to last season, mojo had put up nearly 6000 total yards in the 52 games since fred taylor left town --- but he fell off a cliff just because he turned 28?
meanwhile, hill is running behind an excellent o-line, on a pretty strong offense that has the talent around him to keep a defense honest, as well as a good enough defense of their own to get him the ball back.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Wtf
cstu
Footballguy
Bengals' Jeremy Hill surprises in blocking drill
It was no surprise how natural rookie running back Jeremy Hill looked during running drills in Sunday's first day of practice in full pads, but what was a nice surprise for Hill and running backs coach Kyle Caskey was how well Hill did during a one-on-one blocking drill.
The drill consisted of a running back or fullback going one-on-one with a blitzing linebacker and the second-round draft pick was impressive during his two reps in the drill holding off linebacker Vincent Rey both times.
As an I-formation tailback at LSU, Hill wasn't asked to pick up blitzing linebackers that much and the Bengals have changed his technique when doing so as well.
"We know he can run the ball, we just need to get him more aggressive in his pass protection and really go attack guys and that's what we worked on today," said Caskey. "At LSU they do a lot of play action so they don't do the actual drop-backs a lot of times with the 5-step and 7-step drop-back protections. He did it, he just didn't do it as much as some.
"We just have to keep on him about it, because he's a runner. That's what he is in his mind, but now we just have to get to the point he's the complete package."
Hill said getting some positive reinforcement for working on his technique helps.
"It was good to get a pop on those guys and get your feet underneath you," said Hill. "I just have to break those bad habits of doing the things I did in college and do them the Cincinnati Bengals way. … getting up on those guys quick and not letting them get underneath you and stopping their momentum."
The 6-foot-1, 238-pound Hill also had a chance during 11-on-11 drills to show off the running ability that helped him rush for 1,401 yards this past season at LSU, second-most in a season in school history, and average 6.9 yards per carry, which set a single-season Southeastern Conference record for a runner with at least 200 attempts.
He ripped off two long runs between the tackles late in practice that probably would have been long runs even if tackling was allowed.
"I love power and those inside zone plays and it feels the same," said Hill. "I thought it would be a bigger jump, but it really isn't. Once I got the rhythm down I think just picked up where I left off (from college)."
It was no surprise how natural rookie running back Jeremy Hill looked during running drills in Sunday's first day of practice in full pads, but what was a nice surprise for Hill and running backs coach Kyle Caskey was how well Hill did during a one-on-one blocking drill.
The drill consisted of a running back or fullback going one-on-one with a blitzing linebacker and the second-round draft pick was impressive during his two reps in the drill holding off linebacker Vincent Rey both times.
As an I-formation tailback at LSU, Hill wasn't asked to pick up blitzing linebackers that much and the Bengals have changed his technique when doing so as well.
"We know he can run the ball, we just need to get him more aggressive in his pass protection and really go attack guys and that's what we worked on today," said Caskey. "At LSU they do a lot of play action so they don't do the actual drop-backs a lot of times with the 5-step and 7-step drop-back protections. He did it, he just didn't do it as much as some.
"We just have to keep on him about it, because he's a runner. That's what he is in his mind, but now we just have to get to the point he's the complete package."
Hill said getting some positive reinforcement for working on his technique helps.
"It was good to get a pop on those guys and get your feet underneath you," said Hill. "I just have to break those bad habits of doing the things I did in college and do them the Cincinnati Bengals way. … getting up on those guys quick and not letting them get underneath you and stopping their momentum."
The 6-foot-1, 238-pound Hill also had a chance during 11-on-11 drills to show off the running ability that helped him rush for 1,401 yards this past season at LSU, second-most in a season in school history, and average 6.9 yards per carry, which set a single-season Southeastern Conference record for a runner with at least 200 attempts.
He ripped off two long runs between the tackles late in practice that probably would have been long runs even if tackling was allowed.
"I love power and those inside zone plays and it feels the same," said Hill. "I thought it would be a bigger jump, but it really isn't. Once I got the rhythm down I think just picked up where I left off (from college)."
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Choo chooo!!!!!!
"I thought it would be a bigger jump, but it reay isn't." Unless I'm mistaken, you rarely hear rookies talk like this--I'm a believer in his talent and love to see a guy adjust to the speed of the game so quickly at the next level. That said, he obviously has a lot to learn but you have to love the confidence.
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cstu
Footballguy
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Yeah, I am liking his short term situation and rank him the #2 rookie RB for short term after Sankey. Long term though, it would be hard to have him above Hyde, West or maybe even Freeman or Mason who could all carve out larger roles for their teams.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
From a Q & A on the Bengals site.
http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Hobsons-Choice-heir-apparent-and-airing-it-out/6fd8cfd9-c42b-45ef-a5d0-51301ad20833
How will playing time be distributed to our running backs this up coming season? Specifically Bernard and Hill.
Jackson isn’t going to advertise it, but you could almost see it close to an even split. Giovani Bernard is the starter, so add about 60 more carries to his 170 from last season. That gives him 230 for the year, about 14 carries a game, and I’m not sure they want to run him even that much. At 5-9, 205 pounds, they want to protect him as well as use him in the passing game. But that sounds about right. Last year he ran it 15 once (in Buffalo), 14 twice and 13 three times.
Last season Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (220) divided 390 carries. It sounds like the Bengals are going to run more than that this year, so figure rookie Jeremy Hill to get most of the other 230 to 250, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson asks the third back to do more work than in the past in order to spread the load, whether that be BJGE or Rex Burkhead or whoever.
But until we see Jackson work, that’s a guess.
http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Hobsons-Choice-heir-apparent-and-airing-it-out/6fd8cfd9-c42b-45ef-a5d0-51301ad20833
How will playing time be distributed to our running backs this up coming season? Specifically Bernard and Hill.
Jackson isn’t going to advertise it, but you could almost see it close to an even split. Giovani Bernard is the starter, so add about 60 more carries to his 170 from last season. That gives him 230 for the year, about 14 carries a game, and I’m not sure they want to run him even that much. At 5-9, 205 pounds, they want to protect him as well as use him in the passing game. But that sounds about right. Last year he ran it 15 once (in Buffalo), 14 twice and 13 three times.
Last season Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (220) divided 390 carries. It sounds like the Bengals are going to run more than that this year, so figure rookie Jeremy Hill to get most of the other 230 to 250, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson asks the third back to do more work than in the past in order to spread the load, whether that be BJGE or Rex Burkhead or whoever.
But until we see Jackson work, that’s a guess.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I have Hill in one league and Hyde in the other. The gap between them is widening to be certain. I'm liking Hill more and more each practice. Hope he can keep his head on straight.
bostonfred
Footballguy
wait, what?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Pretty straightforward. I think Hill is better than Hyde. And I like his chances of proving me right more now than I did when I made the picks.If you are referring to the injury status of Hunter and Lattimore, then I guess I'd counter that with "I like when a player climbs the depth chart on his own merits, not by default to others as that doesn't show me much."
Hyde still has Gore to contend with. Hill appears to carving out his own role regardless of what Bernard does. Which is to say Hyde is still a backup whereas Hill is working his way to 1b, possibly even 1a.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Are you talking redraft or dynasty?I was asking an honest question. I haven't memorized individual people's rankings so I didn't know if you meant widening or narrowing. Hyde is the consensus #1 or #2 back in dynasty drafts, for whatever that means, while Hill is somewhere in the RB3-7 range among rookies.
Hyde still has Gore to contend with. Hill appears to carving out his own role regardless of what Bernard does. Which is to say Hyde is still a backup whereas Hill is working his way to 1b, possibly even 1a.
I agree that Hill's stock is rising, but I'm still not interested in investing a significant rookie pick in him in dynasty leagues, and only marginally interested in him in redraft. You're right that he's carving out a role, I just think his opportunity is too capped to be a better fantasy pick because he doesn't have elite potential without an injury.
That doesn't necessarily contradict your stance, though. If Hill has a 1200 total yard, 10 TD season, maybe we'll both think "I told you so".
bostonfred
Footballguy
Usually? No. It usually depends on their talent. If there's a stud power back, then they usually bring in someone as a change of pace back, maybe someone who's better at pass blocking or catching or stretching the field. If there's a stud "speed guy", then the "power guy" is usually relegated to third and 1s, goal line carries and wearing down Ds in the fourth quarter. I don't think either is the case here.The real problem is that they're both talented guys. Remember WD-40? Everyone was excited about Alstott and Dunn, a classic thunder and lightning attack. Or how about the Giants with Dayne and Tiki? It's hard to believe now, but for a while there people were talking about how talented Dayne was. And Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams kind of fit the mold, too. They were both considered studs, and both excelled when they were alone in their roles.
In each of those situations, we got maybe a year of overlapping production. And in each of those situations, it was the smaller back, not the bigger one, who maintained his fantasy value.
I'm honestly struggling to remember a situation where there were two truly talented backs splitting carries and then the big guy took over outright. Maybe Tomlinson/Sproles? Sproles was never going to carry the load, and Tomlinson doesn't exactly fit the power back mold, but the bigger guy did the running and the littler guy got the table scraps. And it turns out Sproles was talented enough to carve out a bigger role elsewhere, he just wasn't big enough to get serious carries. It's possible that the same thing happens with Gio, but it would probably take Tomlinsonesque talent from Hill to make it happen. Do you think that's the kind of talent he has? I'm asking honestly - I've said before, I'm not the best judge of talent.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I like Hill better in the short term and have Hyde getting the dynasty edge (slightly) after the 2014 season.
I don't think there is much of a gap between Hill and Hyde to be honest in a dynasty draft right now. I think people are being swayed by their perceived situations. They assume that Hill's production will be stymied by the presence of Bernard. But I don't necessarily see it that way. I think Hill is a similar talent to Hyde. And I think talent rises.
Maybe I'm a little high on him. But he's already being talked about as a 1b with Gio. Would it be stunning if he were to get more carries than Gio in a particular game? Not really. How about for a season? Not really.
I have my rankings thus for dynasty backs:
1. Sankey - I like his all around game and the fact that he was picked first but a team with a weak depth chart and strong offensive line.
2. Hill - He is making his own way up the depth chart on a team with tons of weapons but a rushing OC.
3. Hyde - I like his prospects. I liked him a lot before the draft as Daniel Jeremiah consistently had him listed as his most talented back.
I don't think there is much of a gap between Hill and Hyde to be honest in a dynasty draft right now. I think people are being swayed by their perceived situations. They assume that Hill's production will be stymied by the presence of Bernard. But I don't necessarily see it that way. I think Hill is a similar talent to Hyde. And I think talent rises.
Maybe I'm a little high on him. But he's already being talked about as a 1b with Gio. Would it be stunning if he were to get more carries than Gio in a particular game? Not really. How about for a season? Not really.
I have my rankings thus for dynasty backs:
1. Sankey - I like his all around game and the fact that he was picked first but a team with a weak depth chart and strong offensive line.
2. Hill - He is making his own way up the depth chart on a team with tons of weapons but a rushing OC.
3. Hyde - I like his prospects. I liked him a lot before the draft as Daniel Jeremiah consistently had him listed as his most talented back.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree. Both would be able to handle the load I think if the other wasn't present. No I don't think Hill has LT talent.
I think Gio is better suite for the NFL than a guy like Sproles. I look at Gio as a poor man's Lesean McCoy and Hill as a poor man's Steven Jackson. I don't know that we've seen that type of combo before. Alstott and Dunn might be close. Bradshaw and Jacobs maybe? Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes....nah these guys aren't that good?
Fred Taylor and MJD perhaps.
Going to be fun to watch. I agree. I don't know that we've seen a good comp. Now watch what happens when one gets hurt though to the other's value. Because backs always get hurt.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Bradshaw/Jacobs and Fred Taylor/MJD are both good comps, but again, it didn't work out great for the bigger guy. Priest/Larry wasn't comparable - Priest was the man until he got hurt, and Larry was told he had to get out of his "diapers" - and Larry/Jamaal Charles wasn't a good comp either because nobody knew what Charles could do until Johnson got hurt.
This is what I'm worried about. I don't think Hill has a chance to be a stud RB without an injury. I agree with you that an injury would immediately bump his value, but I don't want to spend an early dynasty pick on a running back who puts up mediocre fantasy stats until his backfield mate gets hurt. Everyone keeps telling me I'm too focused on situation here, but it's real and it's not changing in the next several years. This isn't a Gerhart situation where he just has no chance of getting signficant time, but it might be worse, because he may tease you with big weeks and then disappear for stretches.
This is what I'm worried about. I don't think Hill has a chance to be a stud RB without an injury. I agree with you that an injury would immediately bump his value, but I don't want to spend an early dynasty pick on a running back who puts up mediocre fantasy stats until his backfield mate gets hurt. Everyone keeps telling me I'm too focused on situation here, but it's real and it's not changing in the next several years. This isn't a Gerhart situation where he just has no chance of getting signficant time, but it might be worse, because he may tease you with big weeks and then disappear for stretches.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Confused about the Hill vs. Hyde talk. Not sure why Hill is in a better short term situation when he is playing behind a 2nd year top 40 pick that played very well last year and has been mentioned as having an expanded role whereas Hyde is playing behind a back people have been waiting to fall off the cliff for 2 years while his primary competition is now injured.
If you like one talent more than the other, alright, but Hyde's situation is much better right now than Hill.
If you like one talent more than the other, alright, but Hyde's situation is much better right now than Hill.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I don't think many situations will ever compare to early MJD coming into a split backfield to take the bulk of both types of impact touches (GL/receptions). Joique is one of the few in that sort of situation since then.
MJD was never a prototypical scat back.
On this split in particular, there's one comparison that folks seem to be avoiding because it doesn't sound very exciting.....2013 BJGE/Gio?
The big news so far is that Hill is supplanting BJGE. That's great. Who was excited to own BJGE last year? Yes, Hill's more talented and will turn in a better season, but in 2014, RB's just aren't very valuable if they can't get either 250 carries, 30+ catches, or 8+ TD's. The latter is the only one of those Hill seems likely to attain in the best case scenario (assuming health everywhere).
I have no idea how this shakes out, but a rich man's BJGE is one option. A useful one, but still not terribly exciting.
MJD was never a prototypical scat back.
On this split in particular, there's one comparison that folks seem to be avoiding because it doesn't sound very exciting.....2013 BJGE/Gio?
The big news so far is that Hill is supplanting BJGE. That's great. Who was excited to own BJGE last year? Yes, Hill's more talented and will turn in a better season, but in 2014, RB's just aren't very valuable if they can't get either 250 carries, 30+ catches, or 8+ TD's. The latter is the only one of those Hill seems likely to attain in the best case scenario (assuming health everywhere).
I have no idea how this shakes out, but a rich man's BJGE is one option. A useful one, but still not terribly exciting.
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jurb26
Footballguy
How is the guy who NEEDS an injury to see significant playing time in a better situation right now than the guy who has already earned it? That makes no sense.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Bell and Bush is probably the best NFL comp right now. They even have the top WR talent and the young unproven First round TE to boot. Nice job Pollardsvision.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Guess that's where I disagree. I think both are penciled into similar roles right now with similar expected work loads. One is playing behind a young guy whereas the other is playing behind an old man. Hue Jackson may want to run the ball 550 times this year, but plans in August are often no longer reality come October. I'd be surprised if the Bengals attempt significantly more runs this year than the 9ers, I think it could go either way but I'd lean San Fran has more.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
On is playing behind a small back whereas the other is playing behind a talented every down back who is getting up in age.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm not a fan of Gio this year because I think he is over priced, but you seem to be painting a very different picture than the consensus in regards to Gio vs. Gore.
jurb26
Footballguy
I looked back to 2006, I could go further but it's time consuming and I think there is enough info, to see how many times RBs from the same team scored in the top 30 RBs for a given season (Standard scoring). Here are the results and hopefully I didn't miss any.
2013
Det Bush 11 & Bell 17
Buf Jackson 10 & Spiller 27
Arz Ellington 24 & Mendy 25
NE Blount 29 & Ridely 30
SD Mathews 12 &Woodhead 19
2012
Det Leshoure 20 & Bell 29
2011
HOU Foster 4 & Tate 28
SD Mathews 8 & Tolbert 22
NO Sproles 10 & Thomas 27
NYG Bradshaw 20 & Jacobs 29
Car Stewart 24 & Williams 26
2010
KC Charles 3 & Thomas 24
Oak McFadden 6 & Bush 26
NYG Bradshaw 14 & Jacobs 23
NYJ Tomlinson 17 & Woodhead 29
2009
Bal Rice 4 & McGahee 25
Car Williams 14 & Stewart 11
NYG Bradshaw 28 & Jacobs 29
2008
Car Williams 1 & Stewart 24
Tenn Johnson 11 & White 19
NYG Jacobs 12 & Ward 23
NE Faulk 27 & Morris 28
2007
Minn Peterson 4 & Taylor 20
Jack MJD 13 & Taylor 18
Car Foster 29 & Williams 30
2006
Jack MJD 8 & Taylor 19
NO McAllister 10 & Bush 17
NE Dillon 21 & Maroney 28
Dal Barber 13 & Jones 27
2013
Det Bush 11 & Bell 17
Buf Jackson 10 & Spiller 27
Arz Ellington 24 & Mendy 25
NE Blount 29 & Ridely 30
SD Mathews 12 &Woodhead 19
2012
Det Leshoure 20 & Bell 29
2011
HOU Foster 4 & Tate 28
SD Mathews 8 & Tolbert 22
NO Sproles 10 & Thomas 27
NYG Bradshaw 20 & Jacobs 29
Car Stewart 24 & Williams 26
2010
KC Charles 3 & Thomas 24
Oak McFadden 6 & Bush 26
NYG Bradshaw 14 & Jacobs 23
NYJ Tomlinson 17 & Woodhead 29
2009
Bal Rice 4 & McGahee 25
Car Williams 14 & Stewart 11
NYG Bradshaw 28 & Jacobs 29
2008
Car Williams 1 & Stewart 24
Tenn Johnson 11 & White 19
NYG Jacobs 12 & Ward 23
NE Faulk 27 & Morris 28
2007
Minn Peterson 4 & Taylor 20
Jack MJD 13 & Taylor 18
Car Foster 29 & Williams 30
2006
Jack MJD 8 & Taylor 19
NO McAllister 10 & Bush 17
NE Dillon 21 & Maroney 28
Dal Barber 13 & Jones 27
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JFS171
Footballguy
I posted this back in mid May and nothing has changed IMO. If anything, the narrative from the coaches supports exactly what I laid out and then some (with Hill already surpassing BJGE - probably gets cut and coaches talking about lining Gio up in the slot some plus exploring ways to have both backs on the field at once). I don't see Bostonfred's point about the receiving weapons being a negative. We've seen teams stack the box against big backs and shut down running games. There's no way to do that against the Bengals.
This may have been posted elsewhere in this thread, but Hill's season at LSU was really quite epic. He averaged 6.9 YPC(!) which completely smoked LSU history at RB. When you move on to SEC history, a pretty decent conference I think we'd all agree, he's still tops. Garrison Hearst in '92 averaged 6.8 at UGA. Eddie Lacy in 2013 averaged 6.5, then showed up and steamrolled the NFL.
Gio's presence is scaring people away from the talent, but the Bengals aren't stupid. Gio's not built to handle a 350 touch season. He's at his best hitting home runs, which he has AMPLE opportunity to do on 12-15 carries per game and 3-5 receptions per game. That's 15-20 total touches per week. 15 carries at week (which I believe is on the high end) puts Gio at 240 for the year. Let's go with it... he's a legit weapon, and we all know he'll touch the ball. I think it's more likely he's around 200 carries, but 240 is fine for this illustration. Hill was brought in to be the hammer. With Gio's receiving ability, i think it's more likely we see his receptions go up to the prime Sprolesian levels of 70-80 and his carries stay under the 200-carry level than him become a 250 carry, 60+ reception guy.
So, if you give Gio 240 (which i think it's the upper limit) that leaves another 240 carries based solely on last year's rushing attempts. Under Jay Gruden. An admittedly, unapologetic pass-happy coach who let Dalton sling it around the yard 587 times (!). Exit Gruden, enter Jackson, who's running game lean has been established. Consider the head coach Marvin Lewis, a defensive mind who knows how Ds play better when rested, and the way to control a game is to run the ball. I think it's likely we see the running attempts top 500. Even giving 50 carries to the rest of the roster, that still leaves 210 for Hill. Barring injury or complete ineffectiveness, I think 200 is a reasonable floor for carries... and what if he's Eddie Lacy come again? Why wouldn't Cinci start using Bernard more in a hybrid role like a Harvin/Cobb type of player and relying on Hill for the tough yards inside. Add in the goalline work, and I can't fathom why there are arguments Hill has a capped upside as a middling RB2.
Catbird
Footballguy
In re-draft, I think Hyde is likely to sit unless Gore is hurt or has dropped horribly since last year. Both are possible, but I don't see Hyde being startable all year without one of those. It looks likely that Hill is half of the RBBC. CIN has loved big backs over at least the last decade and has always relied on one (usually as the load carrier, although Gio compels a shared workload). If BLGE got 220 carries last year, I think he Hill will likely get at least as many as he'll be doing more with them (although Gio will be more established and reliable). More importantly, Hill has a great chance to be the TD machine on a very productive offense. I see a huge advantage in re-draft for Hill.
But that's also likely to be somewhere close to Hill's top end as long as Gio is a healthy Bengal. Hyde, however, has a great opportunity - may not even have significant competition - for taking over the Gore role, or at least the heavy lifting on another productive running attack whose history is to pound it with 1 power back. That's far more upside, to me, than Hill with Gio in town.
So for me, Hill if you need an upside back in re-draft and Hyde if you are in dynasty. Although I would also temper the long term with my feeling that Hill's future, while not as high ceiling, is also not nearly as uncertain as Hyde's, who might never win that lead job (or might have a new coach and offense with who knows what view on RB roles sooner than later).
But that's also likely to be somewhere close to Hill's top end as long as Gio is a healthy Bengal. Hyde, however, has a great opportunity - may not even have significant competition - for taking over the Gore role, or at least the heavy lifting on another productive running attack whose history is to pound it with 1 power back. That's far more upside, to me, than Hill with Gio in town.
So for me, Hill if you need an upside back in re-draft and Hyde if you are in dynasty. Although I would also temper the long term with my feeling that Hill's future, while not as high ceiling, is also not nearly as uncertain as Hyde's, who might never win that lead job (or might have a new coach and offense with who knows what view on RB roles sooner than later).
jurb26
Footballguy
How exactly are they penciled into similar roles? Where are you getting that from because I've yet to see it or hear it? SF probably will have more runs than Cinci this year. That means little. They will have more because their QBs have inflated their rushing numbers the past 2 years, 92 carries for Keap last year and 94 for Keap/Smith the year before. For reference, Cinci has had 47 and 61 over the same time. They are giving up 108 rushes or 54 per season to SF QBs. What matters for this discussion is how many carries the RBs get. To that I'd say Cinci has more.
MAC_32
Footballguy
How much more will Cincy's RB's run? how many more touches will Gore get relative to Gio?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
7% and 24
jurb26
Footballguy
I've got my projections at;Gio
191 carries, 821 yds, 6 TDs
80 targets, 60 receptions, 540 yds, 2 TDs
Hill
215 carries, 967 TDs, 9 TDs
20 targets, 14 receptions, 112 yds, 0 TDs
Gore
250 carries, 1045 yds, 8 TDs
25 targets, 18 receptions, 1 TD
Hyde
90 carries, 405 yds, 2 TDs
10 targets, 6 receptions, 50 yds, 0 TDs
So, removing the other roster fodder, I'm not projecting anything of significance for Lattimore because I don't really know his status, 406 for Cinci and 360 for SF. I've got Keap at 95 carries.
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