dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I'd say he's a sell in dynasty if you can get good value for him. In redraft I'll be looking to grab him about a round later than compared to recent years, if he's available.
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WR Demaryius Thomas (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Peyton Manning was the QB for Harrison and Joe Montana and/or Steve young was the QB for rice. To ignore the QB change is kind of foolish imo.
kutta
Footballguy
Rice had many good years after Montana and Young (of course, not saying DT is Rice). And no one is ignoring QB change. Of course it may be an issue. But the point was that DT is elite. Montana, Young, and Manning have thrown to some pretty good WR's, but no others have done what DT did. By all accounts he had a bad year last year - and he was still WR 10 in my PPR league, but was basically tied for 8th (265.7, 265.46, 265.4 were the total points for the 8, 9, and 10 WR). He was 10 FF pts. out of 7th place, and 25 out of 6th place. If he doesn't drop a couple passes, he's the 6th WR last year.
And his isn't the only situation that has changed. Of the WR's that finished ahead of him last year, two of them have potential QB changes too (Brandon Marshall and Hopkins). Jarvis Landry, AJ Green, and OBJ all get better talent surrounding them this year which could take away targets. Fitz is a year older and John Brown and Floyd are going to get a bigger share this year. The only two that really have about the same situations are Brown and Julio.
So if we are going to over analyze DT's QB change, we need to over analzye all the changes of the top WR's. We can't just assume they are all going to put up the same or better stats. Some of them will surely decline. And some lower guys will probably move up. But let's not dig DT's grave because he got a QB change when all these guys are facing change.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The biggest risk aside from poor QB play for Thomas opportunity would be if the Broncos are a lot more effective running the ball and the rushing attempts rise near 500 due to an effective 1-2 punch of Anderson/Booker.
That could bring the passing attempts down quite a bit. Maybe only 550 or so.
If DT maintains his 30% of the targets from the last two seasons on 550 passing attempts that would be 160 targets. At 500 passing attempts that would be 150 targets.
While I do think the total rushing attempts could increase to 450 or maybe even 500 it is still hard for me to see less than 550 passing attempts. Even in the case where they do, Thomas should still have 150 targets.
The only time Thomas had a lower market share of the targets was when the Broncos ran 100 more total plays, passed the ball 675 times and featured DT, Decker, Welker, and Julius Thomas in record setting fashion.
In 2012 and 2013 when DT only had a few more than 140 targets, he still had 90 or more receptions.
That could bring the passing attempts down quite a bit. Maybe only 550 or so.
If DT maintains his 30% of the targets from the last two seasons on 550 passing attempts that would be 160 targets. At 500 passing attempts that would be 150 targets.
While I do think the total rushing attempts could increase to 450 or maybe even 500 it is still hard for me to see less than 550 passing attempts. Even in the case where they do, Thomas should still have 150 targets.
The only time Thomas had a lower market share of the targets was when the Broncos ran 100 more total plays, passed the ball 675 times and featured DT, Decker, Welker, and Julius Thomas in record setting fashion.
In 2012 and 2013 when DT only had a few more than 140 targets, he still had 90 or more receptions.
Not sure what all those other players have to do with thomas' production. You use the term over analyze but i just see it as analyze. Denver has a top 5 Defense and a bottom 5 offense. Denver ain't scoring a lot of points. He'll still be a decent player but i'm not seeing how he's gonna end up with big #'s.
kutta
Footballguy
The point is that rarely do players score the exact same FF points from year to year. Things change all over. I'm just pointing out that most of the top WR's have change to deal with. If you are going to discount Thomas because of change, are you also discounting the other top guys because of change?
Some players value will go up and some down. The analysis of each players situation is independent of each other (unless players play on the same team). Whether Fitzpatrick is the Jets QB has no impact on how many yards and TD Thomas has.
kutta
Footballguy
I don't know if you are just being obtuse or if you don't understand what I'm saying. I am simply asking a question. Let me just ask one. When you do your projections, are you discounting Hopkins because of his QB change?
I'm just trying to figure out what it is about DT's change that he should be so discounted, when no one seems to be discounting the other top WR's also who have change.
I'm not disagreeing with your premise, but I think you picked a bad player to make your example.
The accepted belief is that DTs QB situation changed for the negative (with either Sanchez or the rookie @QB). The accepted belief is also that Hopkins QB situation changed for the better (Osweiler is better than the QBs in Houston last year).
Using those accepted beliefs (which I don't necessarily agree with, but they seem to be the consensus), you wouldn't be discounting Hopkins b/c of "his" changes, while you would discount DT.
kutta
Footballguy
Right. But some of us think the QB situation in Denver may actually be improved from last year. And the overall point was that all these top WR's have change, some good, some bad. But for some reason everyone is super down on DT for his change but they seem to ignore all the other change.
I am perfectly happy with DT being undervalued. If I can grab him as my WR 2 a round later than I think he should go, yay for me.
Agree with your last comment, but you missed the point of my post. Most people think DTs QB situation got worse, while Hopkins' got better. Based on that line of thinking, it makes perfect sense to discount DT, but not Hopkins.
kutta
Footballguy
I get that. I disagree, maybe on both accounts. But again, it isn't just Hopkins. They all have change, and it isn't all good. I just don't think DT's change is so bad that he should be so discounted while we essentially ignore the change with most of the other WR's. But I get that others disagree.
kutta
Footballguy
Understood; that's why I prefaced my initial post with " I'm not disagreeing with your premise, but I think you picked a bad player to make your example."
kutta
Footballguy
Sanchez and a rookie don't inspire confidence.
That being said, Manning & Osweiler weren't good last year.
DT probably isn't going to put up the numbers he did in Manning's 1st 3 years in Denver, when he was a top-5 FF WR. Manning's accuracy & ability to make the right decisions led to DT being able to get a lot of TDs and YAC. I don't see Sanchez, Lynch, or Siemian being able to replicate Manning's production from '12-'14.
I could see DT getting similar numbers as last year, with 2-3 more TDs, though. Those extra TDs would have made DT the #9 WR in 15.
kutta
Footballguy
I agree with everything here. With a couple more TD's, DT would have been WR 6 in my league. I see him finishing somewhere in the 5-10 range this year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
For standard:
DT is being drafted as WR14 this year. Is that too late? Too Early? Just right?
Knock #1: His QB is going to be really bad.
Rebuttal: His QB play last year was really bad. Denver's QBs last year combined for 4216 yards, 19 TDs and 23 Ints. Only 4 teams threw fewer TDs. In other words, how much worse can Sanchez or Lynch be?
Analysis: If you take Sanchez's career YPA ,TD% and INT% and multiply it by the 606 passing attempts the Broncos had last year, you get 4043 yards, 26 TDs and 22. INTs. That is better than we saw in Denver last year. If you look at Kubiak's history with QBs in Houston, the average was 4048 yards and 22 TDs. So if you average out what we saw with Denver last year, Sanchez's history and Kubiak's history we get 4100 yards and 22 TDs.
Conclusion: There is no reason to expect the Broncos passing offense to be worse than it was last year where DT finished as WR21 in ppg.
Knock #2: There is no upside because of the offense.
Rebuttal: We know DT has the talent to produce like an elite fantasy WR. Over the last 4 years he has averaged 1440 yards and 10 TDs. However, without the Gase/Manning offense, is something like that possible?
Analysis: We do have a comparison point. Andre Johnson. He spent 8 years as the top WR in a Kubiak offense. During that time he averaged 90 yards per game and 0.44 TDs per game. That is 1440 yards and 7 TDs over a 16 game season.
Conclusion: 2015 was not the ceiling for what DT can do. There is room for a little more production in the Kubiak offense. The extra 100 yards and 1 TD would move DT from WR 21 in ppg to WR15.
Knock #3: He was one of the most targeted WRs in the league, how is he going to outproduce last year?
Rebuttal: Andre Johnson averaged 160 targets per 16 games in his time with Kubiak. DT had 177 last year. So it is difficult to see DT getting more targets. He had a very low YPC compared to both his career average and Andre's career average with Kubiak so there is room to improve.
Analysis: The gap is in what Thomas can do with those touches. AJ averaged 13.7 compared to DT's 12.4. However, DT does have a career average of 14.5. If you average that all together you get about 13.5
Conclusion: If you take the 106 catches DT had last year and multiply it by the 13.5 yards per catch, you get 1440 yards.
Final analysis: DT is going as WR14 and I think that is a great spot for him. If you are looking for a WR with upside, I just don't think it's DT. He isn't very likely to out perform his draft position. However, there is almost no risk in taking him as every statistical indicator points to him being a lock to perform as a WR2. If you are deciding between guys like DT and Kelvin or Watkins, you have to make the call on upside vs safety.
DT is being drafted as WR14 this year. Is that too late? Too Early? Just right?
Knock #1: His QB is going to be really bad.
Rebuttal: His QB play last year was really bad. Denver's QBs last year combined for 4216 yards, 19 TDs and 23 Ints. Only 4 teams threw fewer TDs. In other words, how much worse can Sanchez or Lynch be?
Analysis: If you take Sanchez's career YPA ,TD% and INT% and multiply it by the 606 passing attempts the Broncos had last year, you get 4043 yards, 26 TDs and 22. INTs. That is better than we saw in Denver last year. If you look at Kubiak's history with QBs in Houston, the average was 4048 yards and 22 TDs. So if you average out what we saw with Denver last year, Sanchez's history and Kubiak's history we get 4100 yards and 22 TDs.
Conclusion: There is no reason to expect the Broncos passing offense to be worse than it was last year where DT finished as WR21 in ppg.
Knock #2: There is no upside because of the offense.
Rebuttal: We know DT has the talent to produce like an elite fantasy WR. Over the last 4 years he has averaged 1440 yards and 10 TDs. However, without the Gase/Manning offense, is something like that possible?
Analysis: We do have a comparison point. Andre Johnson. He spent 8 years as the top WR in a Kubiak offense. During that time he averaged 90 yards per game and 0.44 TDs per game. That is 1440 yards and 7 TDs over a 16 game season.
Conclusion: 2015 was not the ceiling for what DT can do. There is room for a little more production in the Kubiak offense. The extra 100 yards and 1 TD would move DT from WR 21 in ppg to WR15.
Knock #3: He was one of the most targeted WRs in the league, how is he going to outproduce last year?
Rebuttal: Andre Johnson averaged 160 targets per 16 games in his time with Kubiak. DT had 177 last year. So it is difficult to see DT getting more targets. He had a very low YPC compared to both his career average and Andre's career average with Kubiak so there is room to improve.
Analysis: The gap is in what Thomas can do with those touches. AJ averaged 13.7 compared to DT's 12.4. However, DT does have a career average of 14.5. If you average that all together you get about 13.5
Conclusion: If you take the 106 catches DT had last year and multiply it by the 13.5 yards per catch, you get 1440 yards.
Final analysis: DT is going as WR14 and I think that is a great spot for him. If you are looking for a WR with upside, I just don't think it's DT. He isn't very likely to out perform his draft position. However, there is almost no risk in taking him as every statistical indicator points to him being a lock to perform as a WR2. If you are deciding between guys like DT and Kelvin or Watkins, you have to make the call on upside vs safety.
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I've mentioned this in another thread, but from a FF standpoint, yes, there is a way the QB situation could be worse. Last year the DEN team QB ranked 22nd in passing fantasy points. It is entirely possible that this number is worse. The new QB could be asked to throw the ball less and/or could be less efficient per throw. Either way, I would not put money on the team QB totals to rank above 22nd in fantasy scoring. Combine the fact that DT finished WR13 last year (0ppr) and is being drafted as WR13 this year (0ppr ADP) and I don't see him as a value at all.
Pwingles
Footballguy
eh, you can be down on him if you want, and its not impossible his production takes a nose dive
i think i see him as a potential value to target if people are gonna panic over a guy who has been as consistent as he has been for the last 3-4 seasons. People did this with Marshall a few years back as well. I feel like i would move him, where i own him if the price was right, but im not underselling him ever as some sort of shark move meta.
I appreciate the permission, but his production doesn't have to take a nose dive for him to be overdrafted this year. If he gets the same volume and quality of targets, he's being drafted at his ceiling. If Denver QB ranks below last year's 22nd ranking (which is very possible) then he'll need an even greater slice of the pie to justify his ADP.
What I should be saying is "eh, you can draft him at WR13 if you want - it's not impossible his production sky rockets"
I think we can all agree he's unlikely to get more targets than last year and this QB crew is unlikely to be better than 22nd in the league. So the only way he even justifies his ADP, much less outproduces it, is if he gets more productive per touch.
Citing that he's been really consistent the last 3-4 years is meaningless at this point. In the past 4 years (1) DT has ranked 2nd in targets and (2) only New Orleans has had more fantasy points from passing and that's purely due to last year's 22nd ranking for Denver, otherwise Denver was way ahead of the competition from 2012-2014. You can't let 2012-2014 cloud your judgment on this guy. 2015 is the new reality. He has almost zero upside at WR13 which makes him an easy pass for redraft. I can understand keeping him if you own him in dynasty. That's a different conversation. If the market is poor in a certain league then options are limited and keeping him might be the best choice.
Wow. Please tell me you are being intentionally obtuse here to troll me.
First of all, that's not what I said. Second, I'll simplify what I said in case you weren't trolling: citing DT's stats while on the #1 passing offense in the NFL is meaningless. He's essentially on a new team. Analyzing his stats while playing with sub-par QBs last year is a good place to start when projecting his potential 2016 outcomes unless you think Sanchez & Co. will be a top 20 passing unit.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Not trolling really, but a new QB doesnt necessarily = a "new team", and I dont think that sanchez or lynch are going to be any worse than the ghost of peyton manning. The offense will likely be very similar in fact. Even if his targets go down a little, if he can cut down on the drops by even a little, I feel it will be close to a wash. If his TDs return to what they have been in the years leading to 2015, I see no reason to not think he will out perform his midsummer ADP of wr13, which is also a laughable reference to try and predict a player like DTs ceiling. I cannot name 12 wr who are better or more likely to out produce DT until I see his decline with my own eyes
Pwingles
Footballguy
Your concerns arent without merit, I get why some people are worried, I just havent seen proof yet and choose to believe that elite players will remain so until they arent. His qb situation doesnt scare me anymore than last years, so im less apt to shy away from him in redraft.
I do think Den could be a top 20 passing unit. The west is turning into a way more competitive division with some offenses that can put up points, even with that defensive unit, theyre not gonna be able to grind it out in 17-20 and 14-17 type games
I do think Den could be a top 20 passing unit. The west is turning into a way more competitive division with some offenses that can put up points, even with that defensive unit, theyre not gonna be able to grind it out in 17-20 and 14-17 type games
I said essentially a new team and yes, he is essentially on a new team compared to the 2012-2014 Broncos. That was the #1 passing attack in the NFL. Those days are long gone and that's why you can't expect things like his TDs returning to "the years leading up to 2015."
As I mentioned, he finished WR13 last year in 0ppr and will be lucky to finish WR13 this year (other players would've passed him if they'd played 16 games). Volume propped him up last year. I agree he could cut out some drops to offset a slight decrease in targets, but it won't offset a 30 target drop which is certainly possible.
Thinking they could be a top 20 unit and thinking they actually will be are two different things. If I'm drafting a guy at WR13, I need some confidence in his QB. Right now I think top 20 is a pipe dream for Denver. It could happen, but those are some long odds.
georg013
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
The entire article is a much better read and there's more there than just the talk about weight. http://www.denverpost.com/2016/08/02/demaryius-thomas-changed-2016-denver-broncos/
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Thomas still has upside. Look at all the years of Andre Johnson with meh QBs under Kubiak. He's on one of the most prolific runs in the history the WR position and you sold cheap. Not great.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I find if baffling that Thomas has a current ADP of early in the 3rd round, while AJ Green has one in the middle of the 1st. I know Thomas will have either Sanchez or an unproven QB throwing to him this year, but he should still have a ton of targets, catches and yards (TDs are hard to predict). Meanwhile, Green just lost his number 2 and 3 WRs, which will make it a bit easier for defenses to focus on stopping him. I'd love to hear a reasonable explanation as to why Green is a mid-1st rounder and Thomas is an early 3rd rounder (and not have it be something like 'Because Green is better," since we all know it's not always that simple in FF).
Ilov80s
Footballguy
purestrength
Footballguy
Is Carolina starting two rookie corners with Norman gone? Any hope for DT in Week 1?
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Generally, I'm having a hard time projecting DT as anything worse than a mid/high-end WR2.
Even if he sees a 20% decrease in targets and his yards per target still hover around 8 (have been steadily declining for 4 years) he's still going to be a huge asset. I also think the 6 TDs were a fluke as evidenced by his RZ targets and the fact that I believe no other WR was tackled inside the opposing teams 5 yards line last year.
Even if he sees a 20% decrease in targets and his yards per target still hover around 8 (have been steadily declining for 4 years) he's still going to be a huge asset. I also think the 6 TDs were a fluke as evidenced by his RZ targets and the fact that I believe no other WR was tackled inside the opposing teams 5 yards line last year.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
What's his ceiling IYO?SameSongNDance said:
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Here is my thought process, before I go into his ceiling..
This exact coaching staff with similar personnel peppered DT with 177 targets last year (he had 184 the year before with Fox). My projections are conservative, so I brought him down to 150. This has to do with the fact that it appears to me that Siemian is more comfortable with Sanders and that DEN would like to take the air out of the ball a bit and lean more on their running game like they did towards the tail-end of last year/the postseason. Vegas also thinks DEN will have a lot of positive gameflow this year which would be conducive to more CJ Anderson and less Siemian.
His catch rate over the past two seasons has hovered around 60% which is essentially the same as league average. His YPC, YPT and PPT have been steadily declining. I don't think DT is the same guy who can take a screen to the house anymore but Kubiak doesn't seem to want to use him that way regardless. Still, considering all of this I came to a 90/1215/8 stat line on 150 targets. You can see that this assumes a 60% catch rate and also assumes 2nd worst YPC (13.5), YPT (8) and PPT (1.7) values discounting his rookie year. In PPR this would amount to 16.22ppg.
His realistic ceiling to me really comes down to a question of volume and whether or not he has the ability/opportunity to reach double-digit TDs still. I don't see him ever averaging 15+ YPC, 10 YPT or 2 PPT again. If he sees the same number of targets he has seen over the past two seasons and sees a very positive regression in the TD department (which I actually think is feasible as evidenced in my previous post) I could see a 108/1458/10 stat line on 180 targets. So essentially, I think his absolute ceiling is a little worse than his 2014 season. I would not count on this ceiling at all though.
Realistically, if you draft DT I think you can count on him as a solid WR2 who has an okay shot of sneaking into low-end WR1 territory. If he does it will be on the back of TDs IMO. There's also a shot that he continues to #### the bed in the YPC, YPT and PPT departments in which case he'll be considered washed and a bust. Watching him in preseason action and I don't exactly think this is the case however. All in all, I think he's appropriately valued.
