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Jordan Reed will finish 2nd only to Jimmy Graham this year (1 Viewer)

Archer

Archer

Footballguy
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan, Rudolph) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.

 
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Is anyone worried about this guy's noggin? He seems to be the hot pick this year, but already has had a concussion in the NFL. Not denying his talent, but it is not in his control if he gets a concussion and can't get back on the field for weeks at a time.

 
Not if Graham/Gronk stay healthy. I say if he (Reed) stays healthy he has a decent shot at 3rd; he's unbelievably talented and a ton of fun to watch.

 
Archer said:
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.
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How is he the #1 option for the Skins over Garcon and DJax?

 
Kenny Powers said:
Archer said:
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.
Click to expand...
How is he the #1 option for the Skins over Garcon and DJax?
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Just a feeling. I love Garcon and DeSean, but I think Reed is going to be the one. There are some elite CBs in the league that can give Garcon and DeSean tight coverage and keep them in check from time to time. I don't think there are many LBs or safeties who can handle Reed though...

 
When I think of Reed I recall all the people (and there were many) who said he is a wanna-be Hernandez and he really isn't all that talented.

Now I hear announcers and see posters talk about how crazy talented he is.

I honestly don't know because I don't follow him much now and didn't in college so some people can educate me. I just mention it to ask is it really him or the system and the situation of DJAX and Garcon and the rules? Because if it is him and he really made a lot of people wrong then yes he looks as ready as anyone to make the claim.

But if it is situation, then I'm concerned because situations change mighty fast in the NFL. And if it is the rules then I am concerned because all the other talented TEs get the benefit of the same rules. And if is those things I am concerned because Gronk and Thomas and Witten and Davis and Ertz and a few others are all just as talented in just as good situations.

But if he is that talented, what happened? How did he fool so many people?

 
Sweet Love said:
Is anyone worried about this guy's noggin? He seems to be the hot pick this year, but already has had a concussion in the NFL. Not denying his talent, but it is not in his control if he gets a concussion and can't get back on the field for weeks at a time.
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Actually, he has had 2 concussions in NFL (hid the first one) and two in college.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000356187/article/redskins-jordan-reed-admits-he-hid-concussion-in-13

No thanks.

ETA - If you read that link, he had concussion symptoms for TWO MONTHS after his last one.

 
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Archer said:
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.
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Are you his doctor too? Reed has more health concerns than Gronk and is a less TE friendly system.

Agree that he could put up a good year - NOT monster and that ppg might be very good but using a high enough pick to get him means you will also have to use a higher than normal pick to get a second TE you can count on

 
Kyle Rudolph finishes far ahead of anyone not named Jimmy Graham or Julius Thomas..3rd best TE this season.Reed's good and all, but losing Shanahan for Gruden is a step backwards

 
I'll come back and eat crow with my cereal if I'm wrong. But I think he finishes #2 and I'm definitely cereal about it.

 
Lot's of risk combined with him not being all that great of an athlete and not particularly big. I'll pass.

 
PPR:

As high risk as you can get. He's a man amongst boys when he plays. I have him ranked 3rd. Got to get a backup (say Heath Miller) with him.

The guy is as good as it gets at running routes and getting open at the position. Fun to watch.

 
Zyphros said:
Won't even be a top10 TE
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Only if he's hurt (which you can say the same for anyone) As a rookie, if you look at the 8 full games he played, he averaged over 14 points per week in PPR leagues. I think that's pretty outstanding, especially when you consider how inaccurate RG3 was last year. And for comparisons sake, in 2010 when the trio of Graham, Gronk, and Hernandez came onto the scene they averaged 6, 10, and 9 points per game.

 
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Buffaloes said:
Archer said:
Avoid Alfred Morris at your own peril. His floor is top 5 this year. FLOOR I tells ya!
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Washington fan?
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FF fan first, but yes, I'm a Skins fan too. And I haven't made any bold predictions for DeSean or Garcon, but feel very confident Morris and Reed are going to have big years.

 
Kenny Powers said:
Archer said:
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.
Click to expand...
How is he the #1 option for the Skins over Garcon and DJax?
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In an offense designed for WR's and shown little use of TE's in recent years.

 
Hmm, interesting considering Gresham/Eifert caught 85 balls last year....

And there's no Gio Bernard on the Redskins to snap the dumpoffs..... (unless you believe Helu overtakes Morris.....)

Or a WR in their rotation over 6'.....

 
Incoming massive rant about a position nobody really cares much about:

I really want to convince myself that he will do as well as you say.

I'm not a Redskins fan, and I think that the team is one more RGIII injury away from total dumpster fire mode, but there are so many things that give me good vibes about Reed. The guy above me said it quite well; Gruden definitely has a thing for his TEs if his Cincy tenure was any indication. His play last year was nothing short of incredibly for someone who didn't even start half the year. The Redskins will play trying to pass their way out of a hole. RGIII, if he knows what's good for him and the team, will try to dump off rather than take off more often this season. It all makes sense.

But I can't convince myself this is the case. There are a coupe easy arguments as to why he won't repeat his performance, such as his concussion-proneness and his small sample size lending him little notice from DCs (nobody gameplaned to him like they would with a Graham-type player, or even a Jordan Cameron-type). But to me, I won't draft him because of the TE pool.

To draft Reed at his ADP (in 12 team leagues, costing you a 7th-9th round pick on average), you have to go all in. You have to assume he'll outplay every player coming before him not named Gronk or Graham, and that nobody else behind him has a chance to beat him out. The fact that Reed is getting drafted before Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz (players I think are potential top-5 TEs each) throws a wrench in the first, and I can't justify Reed beating most any TE drafted before him, even if he stays healthy.

My philosophy is never to reach at TE. It's the least productive position past the top 3, and the difference between the TE5 and TE12 was about 2 points per game. Unless you think one of players in this range will elevate their game to the point of breaking into the 10 point per game tier, there's no reason to reach. Taking Reed at his ADP is too high for me, I'd rather wait on him a round or two while grabbing depth, then grab Rudolph or Ertz if I happen to miss out.

 
For me the only question on Reed is his health (particularly of course concussions). If he can avoid injuries, I see him as a very good bet to finish right there with Graham and Gronk, and in dynasty I like Reed more than Julius Thomas. But I also assume that I can't predict injuries and with Reed healthy now I'm willing to take the chance given the potential reward (fwiw I feel the same about Gronk). As Adam has covered a good bit in other threads, Reed was setting a record rookie season pace for TEs before his concussion and between what we've seen on the field and reports from the coaching staff he's way ahead of the curve as a route runner and matchup nightmare. I also feel good about his QB situation; if Griffin gets hurt I think Cousins could sustain Reed's production/targets.

 
JaxBill said:
Sweet Love said:
Is anyone worried about this guy's noggin? He seems to be the hot pick this year, but already has had a concussion in the NFL. Not denying his talent, but it is not in his control if he gets a concussion and can't get back on the field for weeks at a time.
Click to expand...
Actually, he has had 2 concussions in NFL (hid the first one) and two in college.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000356187/article/redskins-jordan-reed-admits-he-hid-concussion-in-13

No thanks.

ETA - If you read that link, he had concussion symptoms for TWO MONTHS after his last one.
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I wouldn't be surprised if he IS the second best TE this year--when he is on the field. But the concussion issue concerns me mightily because what I have read suggests that the more you have them the more likely you are to have more and the more likely for the severity to increase. He has already had a pretty serious one last season and has had four total that we know of--that's a lot.

 
Milkman said:
Lot's of risk combined with him not being all that great of an athlete and not particularly big. I'll pass.
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The concussion risk is a concern. He seems to be big and athletic enough to take advantage of his outstanding RAC skills. New HC Gruden could introduce some uncertainty, if his usage changes.

Through a half season, Reed was pacing for about 90-1,000-6, which would have been a historically good season for a rookie TE. To excerpt from Adam's contribution to the TE value play article, only four rookie TEs have ever averaged 4+ receptions per game, and his 5.5 is #1.

 
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Ryan Swope said:
To draft Reed at his ADP (in 12 team leagues, costing you a 7th-9th round pick on average), you have to go all in. You have to assume he'll outplay every player coming before him not named Gronk or Graham, and that nobody else behind him has a chance to beat him out. The fact that Reed is getting drafted before Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz (players I think are potential top-5 TEs each) throws a wrench in the first, and I can't justify Reed beating most any TE drafted before him, even if he stays healthy.

My philosophy is never to reach at TE. It's the least productive position past the top 3, and the difference between the TE5 and TE12 was about 2 points per game. Unless you think one of players in this range will elevate their game to the point of breaking into the 10 point per game tier, there's no reason to reach. Taking Reed at his ADP is too high for me, I'd rather wait on him a round or two while grabbing depth, then grab Rudolph or Ertz if I happen to miss out.
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I don't understand why drafting Reed as TE8ish/9ish is going "all in," anymore so than drafting any other player. Why do you have to assume he'll outplay guys like Jordan Cameron and Vernon Davis, who go several rounds earlier than him? Even though you want every pick to turn out great, getting a lower return on a cheaper investment doesn't sink your draft or anything.

I also don't really see Reed as a reach this year. I prefer Rudolph slightly, but I have the two of them as the best price-to-value TEs this season, and will be happy to take whichever one I can get. If you're worried about investing in Reed, Rudolph, or Ertz because they're relatively unproven, this is actually a good season for it. With guys like Heath Miller going in the 12th round or later, you can buy a little insurance for them on the cheap. I don't usually like to roster two TEs unless the format dictates it, but it strikes me as more reasonable this year than past years.

 
Archer said:
Kenny Powers said:
Archer said:
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.
Click to expand...
How is he the #1 option for the Skins over Garcon and DJax?
Click to expand...
Just a feeling.
Click to expand...
We need more threads based not upon data analysis and rigor, but rather based upon feeling...

 
wilked said:
Archer said:
Kenny Powers said:
Archer said:
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.
Click to expand...
How is he the #1 option for the Skins over Garcon and DJax?
Click to expand...
Just a feeling.
Click to expand...
We need more threads based not upon data analysis and rigor, but rather based upon feeling...
Click to expand...
You can do all of the preseason analysis in the world. Look at coaching tendencies, offensive coordinators, offensive system, surrounding cast, player talent, strength of schedule etc etc. But at the end of the day, we are basically using that info to create a feeling about all players. A feeling of whether or not, based on our analysis, we think he is going to excel or fail.

More often than not, the fantasy world, even the gurus, are wrong. So basically, this guy has a feeling...I'm assuming he has this feeling based in his analysis of all of the factors mentioned above.

So what's wrong with that? It's no different than anything you or I do.

No one has any clue how Reed will preform this year. We can only guess. He guessed top 2. I guess top 7. Who is right? Only the season playing out will tell.

 
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I NEED YOU PEOPLE TO COME TO A CONSENSUS BECAUSE I HAVE A DRAFT TOMORROW AND I HAVE NO IDEA WHICH TE TO DRAFT.

 
rickyg said:
wilked said:
Archer said:
Kenny Powers said:
Archer said:
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.
Click to expand...
How is he the #1 option for the Skins over Garcon and DJax?
Click to expand...
Just a feeling.
Click to expand...
We need more threads based not upon data analysis and rigor, but rather based upon feeling...
Click to expand...
You can do all of the preseason analysis in the world. Look at coaching tendencies, offensive coordinators, offensive system, surrounding cast, player talent, strength of schedule etc etc.But at the end of the day, we are basically using that info to create a feeling about all players. A feeling of whether or not, based on our analysis, we think he is going to excel or fail.

More often than not, the fantasy world, even the gurus, are wrong.
Click to expand...
Actually the data shows the gurus are more often right than wrong... Though they are not infallible

 
McShay LOVES Reed, and is now the offensive coordinator. There is your scientific data, I'm cereal too.

 
Second Sight said:
When I think of Reed I recall all the people (and there were many) who said he is a wanna-be Hernandez and he really isn't all that talented.

Now I hear announcers and see posters talk about how crazy talented he is.

I honestly don't know because I don't follow him much now and didn't in college so some people can educate me. I just mention it to ask is it really him or the system and the situation of DJAX and Garcon and the rules? Because if it is him and he really made a lot of people wrong then yes he looks as ready as anyone to make the claim.

But if it is situation, then I'm concerned because situations change mighty fast in the NFL. And if it is the rules then I am concerned because all the other talented TEs get the benefit of the same rules. And if is those things I am concerned because Gronk and Thomas and Witten and Davis and Ertz and a few others are all just as talented in just as good situations.

But if he is that talented, what happened? How did he fool so many people?
Click to expand...
Because a lot of people conflate talent with athleticism.

 
wilked said:
rickyg said:
wilked said:
Archer said:
Kenny Powers said:
Archer said:
I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.
Click to expand...
How is he the #1 option for the Skins over Garcon and DJax?
Click to expand...
Just a feeling.
Click to expand...
We need more threads based not upon data analysis and rigor, but rather based upon feeling...
Click to expand...
You can do all of the preseason analysis in the world. Look at coaching tendencies, offensive coordinators, offensive system, surrounding cast, player talent, strength of schedule etc etc.But at the end of the day, we are basically using that info to create a feeling about all players. A feeling of whether or not, based on our analysis, we think he is going to excel or fail.

More often than not, the fantasy world, even the gurus, are wrong.
Click to expand...
Actually the data shows the gurus are more often right than wrong...
Click to expand...
Not using any measure meant to do more than stroke their egos.

 
Finely was autodrafted in a league I did this morning. Yahoo autodraft at 14.12.

I can't decide between Reed and Rudolph so ideally I'll wait until one is gone and then take the other.

This morning's draft I waited too long and ended up with Heath Miller as my only TE. Oh well.

 
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