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Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson Saints (3 Viewers)

Don't own him, but man watching him was great last night. He's such a smooth runner. Him and Leveon are really in a class of their own. I'm thinking of making a move for him, an owner in my league said he would probably take Christine Michael and Hopkins for him. I think I'm not going to bring it up again this week because of last night's performance but hopefully the Jets stingy run D can slow him down a little bit next week, while Hopkins and Michael have field days against Indy and Atlanta.  :thumbup:

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
I have him on a couple teams including a one player keeper. In my other most important league I passed him up for Gurley. Man and I'm disgusted with myself for that. How is it DJ can do this with Stanton at QB and the same defense  (like pretty much all defenses) rendered Gurley useless?
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I had Johnson ranked well above Gurley all summer simply b/c I liked his situation so much more.  And was happy to pay the price to get him in my main league auction, which happened to be the same price as Gurley.  

I will note though that yesterday SF was without Bowman who is an All-Pro caliber linebacker as well as a rookie D-lineman who had played the most snaps at the position for them.  

But I love Johnson because he is exactly the type of RB who can take advantage of situations like this and put up huge games.  And he has a great floor even in tougher matchups. 

Cheers to all fellow owners and lets hope for a long healthy ride this season.

 
Milkman said:
Wow so he's stiffer than some of the most fuild RB to ever play the game and that makes him stiff? Wow tell me more Werd. I've missed you. 
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Don't we all have a friend like this in real life too?  I have this one friend who loves to argue with me about literally every word that comes out of my mouth.  He argues just to argue. 

Super annoying.  

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
I have him on a couple teams including a one player keeper. In my other most important league I passed him up for Gurley. Man and I'm disgusted with myself for that. How is it DJ can do this with Stanton at QB and the same defense  (like pretty much all defenses) rendered Gurley useless?
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IMO, it's because defenses can't differentiate whether a play with be a run or a pass just because DJ is in the backfield.

Conversely, defenses can be fairly certain Gurley is going to run it when in the game and not worry about Keenum passing if he does.

Conclusion: if the Rams would use Gurley more in the passing game, it would free him up on some runs.

 
kutta said:
I don't think there's any single player I would trade him for in redraft or dynasty.
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Redraft yes, dynasty no. I'd easily take Evans, OBJ, Nuk and possibly a handful of others over him. This is coming from one of DJ's biggest fans too. 

DJ has looked amazing thus far. I doubt I'd take any RB over him in dynasty right now. 

 
dipandglide said:
Redraft yes, dynasty no. I'd easily take Evans, OBJ, Nuk and possibly a handful of others over him. This is coming from one of DJ's biggest fans too. 

DJ has looked amazing thus far. I doubt I'd take any RB over him in dynasty right now. 
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3-4 years of top 5 RB in ppr.......it's close but I take DJ over Evans and ODB. 

 
rickyg said:
You'd have to pry him from my cold dead hands.   Or Antonio brown
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This is what I don't get, I guess. Just swapping an RB1 for a WR1 seems like a lateral move, not improvement. If you have DJ but little else, wouldn't you prefer two players who could out perform his point total on any given week? 

WR2 + RB2 > RB1

 
ATB said:
This is what I don't get, I guess. Just swapping an RB1 for a WR1 seems like a lateral move, not improvement. If you have DJ but little else, wouldn't you prefer two players who could out perform his point total on any given week? 

WR2 + RB2 > RB1
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Sure, if someone has DJ and nothing else you could try to bend them over.

Fortunately, I have a pretty good roster in both redrafts where I have DJ so somebody would have to blow me away with an offer that nobody would make.

But even on a struggling team I don't see someone giving you DJ for what most view as a WR2 in DT and what were essentially waiver wire RBs at the beginning of the season in Howard or McKinnon.  

People can find a WR2 or even a RB2/3 without giving up their elite RB, who are so few and far between these days.

I wouldnt even listen to offers for DJ unless names like Antonio, Julio, ODB are mentioned or package deals where I'm getting another RB1 plus something.  DJ and Leveon Bell are just two valuable IMO in these days of decreased RB production.

 
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dipandglide said:
How about you don't edit my take and quote what I actually wrote. 

Why not? Nuk is certainly in the conversation in dynasty.  
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Your dynasty comment above contradicts your OP...which reads like you would take Nuk for DJ in redraft, not dynasty. You included a handful of players, including nuk, you would take over him.   Which is what I strongly disagree with.  I just removed the other players from your quote as they weren't relevant to me. 

 
dipandglide said:
Redraft yes, dynasty no. I'd easily take Evans, OBJ, Nuk and possibly a handful of others over him. This is coming from one of DJ's biggest fans too. 

DJ has looked amazing thus far. I doubt I'd take any RB over him in dynasty right now. 
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No way. I'm with Kutta. Not a better player to have in fantasy right now, any format, any position. Clear #1. 

 
Otis said:
No way. I'm with Kutta. Not a better player to have in fantasy right now, any format, any position. Clear #1. 
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So, Dj is the new dynasty #1? No way. And like I said, I love the kid. It's been proven time and time again, you don't build around RB's in dynasty. 

 
VaTerp said:
Hell no.
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VaTerp said:
Sure, if someone has DJ and nothing else you could try to bend them over.

Fortunately, I have a pretty good roster in both redrafts where I have DJ so somebody would have to blow me away with an offer that nobody would make.

But even on a struggling team I don't see someone giving you DJ for what most view as a WR2 in DT and what were essentially waiver wire RBs at the beginning of the season in Howard or McKinnon.  

People can find a WR2 or even a RB2/3 without giving up their elite RB, who are so few and far between these days.

I wouldnt even listen to offers for DJ unless names like Antonio, Julio, ODB are mentioned or package deals where I'm getting another RB1 plus something.  DJ and Leveon Bell are just two valuable IMO in these days of decreased RB production.
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What about DT + Jordan Howard + McKinnon? 

That's roughly 25-30 pts vs ~15-20 pts per week. 

(EDIT: for a team that's kinda hurting at other positions)

 
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ATB said:
What about DT + Jordan Howard + McKinnon? 

That's roughly 25-30 pts vs ~15-20 pts per week. 
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Still No.

You're missing that the person with DJ will still be starting someone else at the other spots not taking zeros there.

You win in FF, among other ways, with elites scorers. Not by giving up elite guys in 3 for 1 deals.

 
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Really with the year DJ's set up to have you shouldn't trade him for anybody in redraft. In dynasty it's a little more complicated but he's not old so he has 3 years+ of elite RB1 numbers barring injury. For me personally I wouldn't trade him for anybody but I could see a case being made for a WR like Evans(23)/ODB(24)/Cooper(22) in PPR. That's just because of their ages though. If I have a win now team with some elite older WR like Marshall and Brown then DJ is absolutely untradeable. If I'm a couple years away from competing and want to extend my window then trading him in a 1 for 1 deal is fine.

 
C-Bound said:
Your dynasty comment above contradicts your OP...which reads like you would take Nuk for DJ in redraft, not dynasty. You included a handful of players, including nuk, you would take over him.   Which is what I strongly disagree with.  I just removed the other players from your quote as they weren't relevant to me. 
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I mis-typed that. What I meant was that I wouldn't trade him in re-draft, but would likely take a handful of WR's over him in dynasty.

 
Tidehigh said:
I've lost keenan and Watkins.  what should I be trying to get for DJ in a 2 for 1?

demarco/Hopkins?
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Prob need to take this to the assistant coach forum. In dynasty I'd make that trade all day long. I'd easily make that trade in re-draft as well if you need the depth. 

 
He got more touches last night than his previous games. I noticed when he isn't in the lineup Palmer gets sacked more often.

 
pinkham13 said:
He got more touches last night than his previous games. I noticed when he isn't in the lineup Palmer gets sacked more often.
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Stanton was the QB. Of course he's gonna be getting more touches. That said, the Cards should be riding him more than they have going forward and will hopefully do so. 

 
dipandglide said:
Stanton was the QB. Of course he's gonna be getting more touches. That said, the Cards should be riding him more than they have going forward and will hopefully do so. 
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He should be getting more touches when Palmer is back too. Seems they keep him under 20 rushes too often.

 
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ATB said:
What would you guys take for him in re-draft? DT + McKinnon or JHoward?
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In my current situation, basically short a full roster by 5 players I'd need a WR1 and an RB2 or three RB/WR2s. Was also offered Gronk+Dion Lewis (prolly won't return till fantasy playoffs) passed on it also.

 
dipandglide said:
So, Dj is the new dynasty #1? No way. And like I said, I love the kid. It's been proven time and time again, you don't build around RB's in dynasty. 
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agreed. wide outs rule dynasty no matter how much the DJ lovers want to spin it.  Plus I could see AZ turning to crap come this year and next which isn't going to do DJ any favors.

 
mozzy84 said:
agreed. wide outs rule dynasty no matter how much the DJ lovers want to spin it.  Plus I could see AZ turning to crap come this year and next which isn't going to do DJ any favors.
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Yeah because they pull DJ when they go into their hurry up. Wait! Nevermind! Def game plan proof. He can do it all. Only knock is peak window. 

 
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mozzy84 said:
agreed. wide outs rule dynasty no matter how much the DJ lovers want to spin it.  Plus I could see AZ turning to crap come this year and next which isn't going to do DJ any favors.
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If your team isn't a contender in dynasty should we hold? Or Should we sell? He's young and special enough that I'm hesitant to unload him even as a non-contender. It just sucks to see all this production be flushed down the toilet :D

 
ATB said:
IMO, it's because defenses can't differentiate whether a play with be a run or a pass just because DJ is in the backfield.

Conversely, defenses can be fairly certain Gurley is going to run it when in the game and not worry about Keenum passing if he does.

Conclusion: if the Rams would use Gurley more in the passing game, it would free him up on some runs.
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There's  time when teams  are worried about Keenum passing?

 
He's their best player in his prime. Yes he should be the focal point, not Carson. Maybe yesterday's game will bring that into focus forth coaches. He needs 25+touches every game in whatever form the game dictates. 

 
dipandglide said:
Redraft yes, dynasty no. I'd easily take Evans, OBJ, Nuk and possibly a handful of others over him. This is coming from one of DJ's biggest fans too. 

DJ has looked amazing thus far. I doubt I'd take any RB over him in dynasty right now. 
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I invested more heavily in DJ than any other player this year in redraft. Took him in first round of almost half my redrafts. Put another way I only passed on him in first round twice, at pick 3 for ODB and at pick 1 for Brown, every other draft I either took him or he was gone. He was my 4th rated player for redrafts in late July and that never wavered up until drafts started.

If I was drafting for ROS on I'd move him up to 3 but would still take Brown over him and I'd also take Bell over him.

So for me I'll just start right here in terms of redraft and say as much as I like him, I'd take Bell over him as RB's go.

Now for dynasty. Gurley and DJ are almost like polar opposites for me in terms of redraft ownership vs dynasty ownership. I invested more heavily in Gurley last year in dynasty than any other player. However I do not own Gurley in a single redraft league and conversely I  do not own David Johnson in a single dynasty league.

To me age matters a lot for my RB's so I would still take Gurley and Elliot over Johnson in dynasty. I'd also of course continue to take Bell who is younger and I prefer in redraft. So David Johnson for me was the #1 redraft RB entering season, is now #2 and and remains the #4 dynasty RB he was for me before the season began. That's how I see it anyway and have seen it for months.

 
dipandglide said:
Really? Why are there 15-16 WR's consistently being mocked in the top 20 of dynasty startups compared to 4-5 RB's? WR's are a much safer asset to build around then RB's and it's been proven/written about many times. 
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I agree with you in general but it's more fluid than you think. The league is being flooded with good great WR prospects. There is like 3-4 foundation backs left in the NFL. I built my team around RB's and I'm a heavy favorite for the next 2-3 years imo. Obviously that's anecdotal and doesn't prove you wrong but the dynasty landscape might be changing.

On a side note FBG is really dropping the ball on their dynasty rankings. They aren't updated nearly enough. Don't they have like 10+ staff employees that do them?

 
Milkman said:
I agree with you in general but it's more fluid than you think. The league is being flooded with good great WR prospects. There is like 3-4 foundation backs left in the NFL. I built my team around RB's and I'm a heavy favorite for the next 2-3 years imo. Obviously that's anecdotal and doesn't prove you wrong but the dynasty landscape might be changing.

On a side note FBG is really dropping the ball on their dynasty rankings. They aren't updated nearly enough. Don't they have like 10+ staff employees that do them?
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I never said you can't win building around great RB's. All I'm saying is that building around WR's has been proven to be the best way to lay a foundation for success. If you're competing, guys like DJ, Zeke, Bell, and Gurley are insanely valuable. If not, I'd rather sell them for other pieces/depth, and try to land the next DJ, Miller, Bell down the road when I need that high variance production. 

This is getting off topic. DJ is a beast. Carry on.....

 
dipandglide said:
I never said you can't win building around great RB's. All I'm saying is that building around WR's has been proven to be the best way to lay a foundation for success. If you're competing, guys like DJ, Zeke, Bell, and Gurley are insanely valuable. If not, I'd rather sell them for other pieces/depth, and try to land the next DJ, Miller, Bell down the road when I need that high variance production. 

This is getting off topic. DJ is a beast. Carry on.....
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It is still about RBs.  In dynasty, if you have true stud RBs and happen to stay healthy, you are nigh untouchable.  It's about scarcity of resources, positional advantage, the weather turning late in the ff season when it matters most, etc, etc.  

Everyone wants to drool over the age and upside of a Cooks, of an Allen robinson, etc, but these guys (unless their name is Antonio Brown) vary every bit as much in a 2-3 window as a RB does. We've seen this dissected a million ways but in a simple plain Joe way, it's really as basic as thinking in terms of your Allen robinson versus my Jeremy Maclin.  You win on paper but how often do you win week in and week out when its all said and done and how predictable is that? On the other hand, My David johnson, Shady McCoy combo will absolutely bury you 95% of the time when you burn 2-3 extra roster spots housing a hodge lodge of Lamar Millers, CJ Andersons, Lagarette Blounts, etc and trying to ride hot hands and situations.  

Look at eddie Lacy. As bad as he has been perceived to be for seemingly his entire career in terms of how many people were doubting early, then doubted and said let's see it again, then carpet bombed on him last year, when it comes down to it when the weather turned colder, he was one of the best top options down the stretch every year (top 2 in his rookie year, top 4 in year 2 and top 10 last year...as bad as people will tell you he sucked last year).  Why is that perception? Because people want to believe the perception they paint and when a player starts off lukewarm or bad, it lingers and carries.  So they label guys as"meh", but it illustrates the point of the value of difference-making RBs and how easily people overlook them. 

 
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